Comparative outcomes between initially unresectable and recurrent cases of advanced pancreatic cancer following palliative chemotherapy

The relationship between LDH and GLIM criteria for cancer cachexia: Systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Cancer cachexia is a clinical condition characterized by recognizable "sickness behaviors" accompanied by loss of lean body tissue. The Global Leadership on Malnutrition (GLIM) has proposed phenotypic (unintentional weight loss, low body mass index and low muscle mass) and aetiologic (reduced food intake and inflammation or disease burden) diagnostic criteria. Recent work has suggested serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) might represent a 3rd aetiologic criteria. Little is known of its relationship with GLIM. A systematic review and meta-analysis of their comparative prognostic value and association was performed.

METHODS

A search of electronic databases (PubMed, Medline, Ovid, Cochrane) up to February 2023 was used to identify studies that compared the prognostic value of LDH and components of the GLIM criteria in cancer. An analysis of the relationship between LDH and the components of GLIM was undertaken where this data was available. RevMan 5.4.1 was used to perform a meta-analysis for each diagnostic criteria that had 3 or more studies which reported hazard ratios with a 95 per cent confidence interval for overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

A total of 119 studies were reviewed. Advanced lung cancer was the most studied population. Included in the meta-analysis were 6 studies (n=2165) on LDH and weight loss, 17 studies (n=7540) on LDH and low BMI, 5 studies (n=758) on LDH and low muscle mass, 0 studies on LDH and food intake and 93 studies (n=32,190) on LDH and inflammation. There was a significant association between elevated serum LDH and each of low BMI (OR 1.39, 1.09 - 1.77; p=0.008), elevated NLR (OR 2.04, 1.57 - 2.65; p<0.00001) and elevated CRP (OR 2.58, 1.81 - 3.67; p<0.00001). There was no association between elevated serum LDH and low muscle mass. Only one study presented data on the association between LDH and unintentional weight loss. Elevated LDH showed a comparative OS (HR 1.86, 1.57 - 2.07; p<0.00001) to unintentional weight loss (HR 1.57, 1.23 - 1.99; p=0.0002) and had a similar OS (HR 2.00, 1.70 - 2.34; p<0.00001) to low BMI (HR 1.57, 1.29-2.90; p<0.0001). LDH also showed an OS (HR 2.25, 1.76 - 2.87; p<0.00001) congruous with low muscle mass (HR 1.93, 1.14 - 3.27; p=0.01) and again, LDH conferred as poor an OS (HR 1.77, 1.64-1.90; p<0.00001) as elevated NLR (HR 1.61, 1.48 - 1.77; p<0.00001) or CRP (HR 1.55, 1.43 - 1.69; p<0.00001).

CONCLUSION

Current literature suggests elevated serum LDH is associated with inflammation in cancer (an aetiologic GLIM criterion), however more work is required to establish the relationship between LDH and the phenotypic components of GLIM. Additionally, elevated serum LDH appears to be a comparative prognosticator of overall survival in cancer when compared to the GLIM criteria.

Efficacy and Safety of Reirradiation with Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Locally Recurrent Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

AIMS

The purpose of this study was to report on outcomes of a cohort of patients who were treated with reirradiation with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for locally recurrent pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients treated with SBRT reirradiation for locally recurrent pancreatic adenocarcinoma from December 2009 to April 2020 were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were used to record patient demographics, tumour and treatment characteristics. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to evaluate overall survival, local progression-free survival (LPFS), distant metastasis-free survival and progression-free survival (PFS).

RESULTS

In total, 27 patients were included in the study. The median follow-up time from local recurrence was 19.7 months (range 4.2-43.1 months). Most patients received five-fraction SBRT (26/27, 96%). The median overall survival after local recurrence treatment was 18.3 months (range 3.0-42.6 months), with 6-month, 1-year and 2-year overall survival rates of 88.5%, 73.1% and 33.6%. The median LPFS after local recurrence treatment was 16.2 months (range 2.3-33.6 months), with 6-month, 1-year and 2-year LPFS rates of 95.8%, 62.9% and 27.2%. Peri-SBRT chemotherapy improved LPFS (median 17.5 versus 8.5 months; P = 0.010) and overall survival (median 19.3 versus 5.5 months; P = 0.049). Tumours ≤ 3 cm in the greatest dimension showed better local control (median LPFS 19.2 versus 10.2 months; P = 0.130). There was one case (4%) of acute grade 3 pain and one case (4%) of late grade 3 gastrointestinal toxicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Reirradiation with five-fraction SBRT is safe, but local control remains suboptimal. Patients with smaller tumours experienced improved outcomes, as did patients whose treatment plan included the administration of peri-SBRT chemotherapy.

Optimal management of patients with operable pancreatic head cancer: A Markov decision analysis

INTRODUCTION

Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) is an emerging strategy for operable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). While NAT increases multimodal therapy completion, it risks functional decline and treatment dropout. We used decision analysis to determine optimal management of localized PDAC and consider risks faced by elderly patients.

METHODS

A Markov cohort decision analysis model evaluated treatment options for a 60-year-old patient with resectable PDAC: (1) upfront pancreaticoduodenectomy or (2) NAT. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. A subanalysis considered the scenario of a 75-year-old patient.

RESULTS

For the base case, NAT offered an incremental survival gain of 4.6 months compared with SF (overall survival: 26.3 vs. 21.7 months). In one-way sensitivity analyses, findings were sensitive to recurrence-free survival for NAT patients undergoing adjuvant, probability of completing NAT, and probability of being resectable at exploration after NAT. On probabilistic analysis, NAT was favored in a majority of trials (97%) with a median survival benefit of 5.1 months. In altering the base case for the 75-year-old scenario, NAT had a survival benefit of 3.8 months.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis demonstrates a significant benefit to NAT in patients with localized PDAC. This benefit persists even in the elderly cohort.

Significance of the inflammation-based prognostic score in recurrent pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Although the prognosis of recurrent pancreatic cancer (RPC) is improving with the appearance of new anticancer drugs, prognostic indicators for RPC are still poorly understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate significance of the inflammation-based prognostic score, including modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), in patients with RPC.

METHODS

This study reviewed 263 patients of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma at our institution between 2006 and 2015. A receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was performed to determine the cut-off values. The prognostic significance of the inflammation-based prognostic scores were evaluated by a multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

172 patients (65.4%) who had recurrence was included in this study. The optimal PNI for predicting 1-year survival after recurrence was 40 with higher area under receiver operating characteristics curve value (0.704) in comparison with other inflammation-based prognostic scores. A univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that liver metastasis (P < 0.001) and PNI < 40 (P < 0.001) were independently associated with the survival time after recurrence. When each of the two predictors was counted as one point and the points were calculated for all cases, a good stratified survival curve was obtained, showing the shorter survival in the higher points: median survival times of 2, 1, and 0 points were 4.3, 11.1, and 21.2 months, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Inflammation-based prognostic scores, especially PNI is useful clinical biomarker for predicting the survival time after recurrence in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Prognostic value of pretreatment serum lactate dehydrogenase level in pancreatic cancer patients: A meta-analysis of 18 observational studies

BACKGROUND

Several studies were conducted to investigate the prognostic value of pretreatment serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level in pancreatic cancer (PC), but the results were inconsistent. This study aims to comprehensively assess the prognostic value of pretreatment serum LDH level in PC patients by combining the data of the published literatures on this topic.

METHODS

Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science were completely retrieved until June, 2018. The observational studies focusing on the prognostic value of pretreatment serum LDH level in PC patients were eligible. STATA version 12.0 was used to undertake the statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Eighteen studies with a total of 3345 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The meta-analysis was conducted to generate pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for overall survival (OS). Our analysis results suggested that high serum LDH level predicted worse OS (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.30-1.90, P < .001) in PC patients. Moreover, for patients with advanced PC, the prognostic relevance of pretreatment serum LDH level not only existed in those receiving palliative chemotherapy (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.35-2.18, P < .001), but also in those who were precluded from chemotherapy (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.4219-2.58, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

The meta-analysis results demonstrated that pretreatment serum LDH level is closely associated with OS, and it may be a useful biomarker for assessing the prognosis of PC patients.

Prognostic Factors for Elderly Patients Treated With Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Introduction: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) commonly presents later in life with a median age at diagnosis of 70 years. Unfortunately, elderly patients are significantly underrepresented in clinical trials. Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) is a promising treatment modality in this population as it has demonstrated excellent local control with minimal toxicity. We aimed to determine prognostic factors associated with outcomes in elderly patients treated with SBRT. Materials and Methods: Elderly patients older than 70 treated with SBRT for PDAC at our institution, from 2004 to 2014 were included. Our primary endpoints included overall survival (OS) and local-progression-free survival (LPFS). Secondary endpoints included regional-progression-free survival (RPFS), distant-progression-free-survival (DPFS) and radiation toxicity. Endpoints were analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method. The association of these survival endpoints with risk factors was studied with Cox proportional hazards models. Results: We identified 145 patients with 146 lesions of pancreatic adenocarcinoma with a median age at diagnosis of 79 (range, 70.1-90.3). SBRT was delivered to a median dose of 36 Gy (IQR 24-36). Surgical resection was performed on 33.8% of the total patients. Median follow-up was 12.3 months (IQR 6.0-23.3 months) and the median survival for the entire cohort 14.0 months with a 2-year OS of 27%. Multivariate analysis (MVA) demonstrated surgery [p ≤ 0.0001, HR 0.29 (95% CI, 0.16-0.51)] and post-SBRT CA19-9 [p = 0.009, HR 1.0004 (95% CI, 1.0002-1.0005)] significantly associated with overall survival. Recurrent lesions [p = 0.0069, HR 5.1 (95% CI, 1.56-16.64)] and post-SBRT CA19-9 levels [p = 0.0107, HR 1.0005 (95% CI, 1.0001-1.0008)] were significantly associated with local control on MVA. For the entire cohort, 4.1% experienced acute grade 2+ toxicity, and 2% experienced late grade 2+ toxicity at 2 years. Conclusion: This review demonstrates prognostic factors in elderly patients with PDAC treated with SBRT. We identified surgical resection and post-SBRT CA 19-9 as predictive of overall survival in this population. Additionally, we show low acute and late toxicity following SBRT in elderly patients.

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Isolated Local Recurrence After Surgical Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Appears to be Safe and Effective

BACKGROUND

A standardized treatment regimen for unresectable isolated local recurrence (ILR) of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma has not been established. This study evaluated the outcomes for patients with ILR who underwent stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT).

METHODS

The records of patients with ILR who underwent SBRT between 2010 and 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. Symptom palliation and treatment-related toxicity were recorded. Associations between patient or treatment characteristics and overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and local progression-free survival (LPFS) were assessed.

RESULTS

The study identified 51 patients who received SBRT for ILR. Of the 51 patients, 26 (51%) had not received radiation therapy before SBRT. The median OS was 36 months after diagnosis. From the first day of SBRT, the median OS, PFS, and LPFS were respectively 16, 7, and 10 months. Patients with a recurrence-free interval of 9 months or longer after surgery had superior OS (P = 0.019). Maintenance chemotherapy after SBRT was associated with superior OS (P < 0.001) and LPFS (P = 0.027). In the multivariable analysis, poorly differentiated tumor grade [hazard ratio (HR) 11.274], positive surgical margins (HR 0.126), and reception of maintenance chemotherapy (HR 0.141) were independently associated with OS. Positive surgical margins (HR 0.255) and maintenance chemotherapy (HR 0.299) were associated with improved LPFS. Of 16 patients, 10 (63%) experienced abdominal pain relief after SBRT. Four patients (8%) experienced grade 3 gastrointestinal toxicity, and one patient experienced grade 4 gastrointestinal toxicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of SBRT for ILR improved pain for a majority of the patients with acceptable acute and late toxicity. The findings show that SBRT is a feasible treatment for select patients with ILR. For those who receive SBRT, maintenance chemotherapy should be considered.

Use of imaging during symptomatic follow-up after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Controversy exists whether follow-up after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) should include standardized imaging for the detection of disease recurrence. The purpose of this study was to evaluate how often patients undergo imaging in a setting where routine imaging is not performed. Secondly, the pattern, timing, and treatment of recurrent PDAC were assessed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a post hoc analysis of a prospective database of all consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic resection of PDAC between January 2011 and January 2015. Data on imaging procedures during follow-up, recurrence location, and treatment for recurrence were extracted and analyzed. Associations between clinical characteristics and post-recurrence survival were assessed with the log-rank test and Cox univariable and multivariable proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

A total of 85 patients were included. Seventy-four patients (87%) underwent imaging procedures during follow-up at least once, with a mean amount of 3.1 ± 1.9 imaging procedures during the entire follow-up period. Sixty-eight patients (80%) were diagnosed with recurrence, 58 (85%) of whom after the manifestation of clinical symptoms. Additional tumor-specific treatment was administered in 17 of 68 patients (25%) with recurrence. Patients with isolated local recurrence, treatment after recurrence, and a recurrence-free survival >10 mo had longer post-recurrence survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Even though a symptomatic follow-up strategy does not include routine imaging, the majority of patients with resected PDAC underwent additional imaging procedures during their follow-up period. Further prospective studies are needed to determine the actual clinical value, psychosocial implications, and cost-effectiveness of different forms of follow-up after resection of PDAC.

Serum interleukin-6 is associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma progression pattern

Several reports showed that interleukin-6 (IL-6) or -8 (IL-8) might be useful inflammatory biomarkers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), although these clinical impact is still open to debate. The aim of this study was to elucidate whether serum levels of IL-6 and IL-8 at diagnosis could predict the tumor progression pattern of PDAC, especially in extensive hepatic metastasis.According to the tumor burden of hepatic metastasis at the last follow-up, tumor progression pattern was defined as follows: no or limited (unilobar involvement and 5 or less in the within liver, limited group) and extensive hepatic metastasis (bilobar or more than 5, progressed group). Fifty-three PDAC patients with initially no or limited hepatic metastasis were enrolled retrospectively.Around 42 (79.2%) were included in the limited and 11 (20.8%) in the progressed group. The median serum level of IL-6 in the progressed group was elevated significantly compared with the limited group. However, the median serum level of IL-8 was not. Furthermore, multivariate analysis revealed that the elevated serum level of IL-6 was an independent risk factor for progression to extensive hepatic metastasis (odds ratio 1.928, 95% confidence interval 1.131-3.365, P = 0.019), but IL-8 was not. However, higher IL-6 did not predict shorter survival.High serum IL-6 can be an independent risk factor for progression to extensive hepatic metastasis in PDAC patients.

Systematic review on the treatment of isolated local recurrence of pancreatic cancer after surgery; re-resection, chemoradiotherapy and SBRT

BACKGROUND

The majority of patients who have undergone a pancreatic resection for pancreatic cancer develop disease recurrence within two years. In around 30% of these patients, isolated local recurrence (ILR) is found. The aim of this study was to systematically review treatment options for this subgroup of patients.

METHODS

A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library. Studies reporting on the treatment of ILR after initial curative-intent resection of primary pancreatic cancer were included. Primary endpoints were morbidity, mortality and survival after ILR treatment.

RESULTS

After screening 1152 studies, 18 studies reporting on 313 patients undergoing treatment for ILR were included. Treatment options for ILR included surgical re-resection (8 studies, 100 patients), chemoradiotherapy (7 studies, 153 patients) and stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) (4 studies, 60 patients). Morbidity and mortality were reported for re-resection (29% and 1%, respectively), chemoradiotherapy (54% and 0%) and SBRT (3% and 1%). Most patients had a prolonged disease-free interval before recurrence. Median survival after treatment of ILR of up to 32, 19 and 16 months was reported for re-resection, chemoradiotherapy and SBRT, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In selected patients, treatment of ILR following pancreatic resection for pancreatic cancer seems safe, feasible and associated with relatively good survival.

Unresectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma: Eight Years Later

Pancreatic cancer is the fourth leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States, and is considered uniformly fatal when patients present with unresectable, advanced-stage disease at the time of diagnosis. Long-term survival of patients with advanced-stage pancreatic adenocarcinoma remains rare, despite advances in adjuvant chemoradiation protocols. A 73-year-old male presented to our emergency department with abdominal pain and a history of biopsy-proven, stage III pancreatic adenocarcinoma. His initial staging CT scan and trans-duodenal ultrasound had demonstrated a stage IIa (T3, N0, Mx) lesion. On surgical exploration, he was up-staged to stage III (T4, N0, Mx), noting encasement of the superior mesenteric vessels and involvement of the portal vein. He underwent palliative choledochojejunostomy and was treated with 4 months of oxaliplatin and capecitabine, with concurrent radiation therapy (50.4 Gy), followed by 4 months of gemcitabine. After 7 months, the patient withdrew from therapy due to treatment intolerance. He then turned to self-medication with non-traditional herbal therapies. After 3 years of surveillance, he was lost to follow-up until presenting to our facility with abdominal pain 8 years after his initial diagnosis. On diagnostic CT scan during his current presentation for abdominal pain, he was found to have no evidence of pancreatic cancer. Based on our review of the literature, we present the longest known survival of a patient with surgically unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Further study of this patient’s phenotypic or genotypic characteristics may provide insight into better therapeutic agents, or a predictive subset of patients who will benefit from specific chemotherapeutic options.

Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) Reirradiation for Recurrent Pancreas Cancer

OBJECTIVES

After adjuvant or definitive radiation for pancreas cancer, there are limited conventional treatment options for recurrent pancreas cancer. We explored the role of (Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy) SBRT for reirradiation of recurrent pancreas Cancer.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study of patients reirradiated with SBRT for recurrent pancreas cancer. All patients were deemed unresectable and treated with systemic therapy. Fiducial gold markers were used. CT simulation was performed with oral and IV contrast and patients were treated with respiratory motion tracking in the Cyberknife(TM) system.

RESULTS

30 patients (17 men and 13 women) with a median age of 67 years were included in the study. The median target volume was 41.29cc. The median prescription dose was 25Gy (24-36Gy) in a median of 5 fractions prescribed to a mean 78% isodose line. The median overall survival was 14 months. The 1 and 2 year local control was 78%. The worst toxicity included 3/30(10%) Grade III acute toxicity for pain, bleeding and vomiting. There was 2/30 (7%) Grade III long-term bowel obstructions.

CONCLUSIONS

SBRT can be a useful and tolerable option for patients with recurrent pancreas cancer after prior radiation.

Treatment of 200 locally advanced (stage III) pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients with irreversible electroporation: safety and efficacy

OBJECTIVES

Ablative therapies have been increasingly utilized in the treatment of locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). Irreversible electroporation (IRE) is an energy delivery system, effective in ablating tumors by inducing irreversible membrane destruction of cells. We aimed to demonstrate efficacy of treatment with IRE as part of multimodal treatment of LAPC.

METHODS

From July 2010 to October 2014, patients with radiographic stage III LAPC were treated with IRE and monitored under a multicenter, prospective institutional review board-approved registry. Perioperative 90-day outcomes, local failure, and overall survival were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 200 patients with LAPC underwent IRE alone (n = 150) or pancreatic resection plus IRE for margin enhancement (n = 50). All patients underwent induction chemotherapy, and 52% received chemoradiation therapy as well for a median of 6 months (range, 5-13 months) before IRE. IRE was successfully performed in all patients. Thirty-seven percent of patients sustained complications, with a median grade of 2 (range, 1-5). Median length of stay was 6 days (range, 4-36 days). With a median follow-up of 29 months, 6 patients (3%) have experienced local recurrence. Median overall survival was 24.9 months (range: 4.9-85 months).

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with LAPC (stage III), the addition of IRE to conventional chemotherapy and radiation therapy results in substantially prolonged survival compared with historical controls. These results suggest that ablative control of the primary tumor may prolong survival.

Initial Metastatic Site as a Prognostic Factor in Patients With Stage IV Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Few studies have evaluated the presence of hepatic or peritoneal metastasis as a prognostic factor in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study aimed to elucidate the prognostic value of the initial metastatic, extrahepatic, or hepatic site in patients with metastatic PDAC. Between January 2007 and December 2013, the medical records of 343 patients with metastatic PDAC treated at Seoul National University Bundang Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified as having extrahepatic metastasis alone (EH), hepatic metastasis alone (LV), and both hepatic and extrahepatic metastasis (BOTH). The median age was 67 years; 207 patients were men. Patients were classified as having EH (111 patients), LV (106), and BOTH (126). Totally, 212 patients underwent chemotherapy with a FOLFIRINOX (23 patients) or gemcitabine-based regimen (189). On multivariate analysis, an ECOG score ≥2 (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.2-4.5), albumin < 35  g/L (HR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1-2.3), C-reactive protein > 10  mg/L (HR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6-3.2), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio > 5 (HR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-2.0), no chemotherapy (HR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.0-4.1), and metastatic site (LV, HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4-3.1; BOTH, HR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.6-3.2) were significantly associated with shorter overall survival (OS). Considering the initial metastatic site, the median OS of patients with EH, LV, and BOTH were 7.5 (95% CI: 6.3-8.8), 4.8 (95% CI: 4.1-5.5), and 2.4 (95% CI: 1.9-2.9) months, respectively. The initial metastatic site is significantly and independently associated with OS in patients with metastatic PDAC, serving as an effective prognostic factor.

A prognostic index model to predict the clinical outcomes for advanced pancreatic cancer patients following palliative chemotherapy

Purpose

To establish a prognostic index model for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving palliative chemotherapy based on clinical variables.

Methods

The clinical data of 118 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who received palliative chemotherapy between January 2006 and August 2013 in our center were retrospectively analyzed. Prognostic factors for overall survival were identified using Cox proportional hazards model. A prognostic index model was established by these pretreatment factors to predict prognosis. Kaplan–Meier estimation and log-rank test were performed to compare the overall survival difference between low-risk and high-risk group of patients.

Results

Median overall survival time for all patients was 8.8 months [95 % confidence interval (CI) 7.0–10.6 months]. Multivariate analysis identified ECOG score = 2 (hazard ratio 2.03; 95 % CI 1.07–3.85; P = 0.030), CA19-9 levels of ≥1000 U/mL (hazard ratio 2.07; 95 % CI 1.09–3.92; P = 0.026), and CRP levels of ≥5 mg/L (hazard ratio 2.05; 95 % CI 1.06–3.96; P = 0.033) as independent poor prognostic factors for overall survival. For the three factors, ECOG score = 2, CA19-9 levels of ≥1000 U/mL, and CRP levels of ≥5 mg/L were allocated 1 point each. There were 84 (71.2 %) patients allocated to low-risk group with total score 0–1 point, and 34 (28.8 %) patients were categorized as high-risk group with total scores 2–3 points. The median overall survival for low-risk group and high-risk group was 9.9 months (95 % CI 6.8–13.0) and 5.3 months (95 % CI 4.1–6.5), respectively (hazard ratio 0.27; 95 % CI 0.14–0.52; P < 0.001). The estimated 1-year survival rates for low-risk group and high-risk group were 40.5 and 5.9 %, respectively (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

A novel prognostic index model based on three clinical parameters was established to predict the prognosis of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving palliative chemotherapy.