How many people are living with undiagnosed HIV infection? An estimate for Italy, based on surveillance data

Valutazione delle conseguenze epidemiologiche ed economiche generate dal ritardo di trattamento dei pazienti HIV-positivi causato dalla pandemia COVID-19

Objective:

To assess, from an epidemiological and economic point of view, the consequences of the reduction in the supply of antiretroviral drugs due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Method:

The analysis was conducted by adapting a Markov model previously published in literature. The simulations were conducted considering the possibility of continuous treatment for patients already diagnosed (no therapeutic interruptions are expected) and an immediate start of patients with new diagnosis during 2021. This analysis was compared with a scenario involving a therapeutic interruption or diagnostic delay caused by COVID-19.

Results:

The analysis showed that the scenario characterized by a treatment delay, compared to the scenario of early resumption of therapy, could generate an increase in the number of patients with CD4 < 200 equal to 1,719 subjects (+16%) and a reduction in the number of patients with CD4 500 equal to 6,751 (−9%). A timely resumption of treatment for HIV+ patients could prevent 296, 454 and 687 deaths in the third, fifth and tenth years of analysis respectively with a potential cost reduction equal to 78,9 million at a 10 year time horizon.

Conclusions:

These findings show that it is essential, especially in a pandemic situation such as the present one, to introduce technological, digital and organizational solutions, aimed at promoting timely diagnosis and at accelerating the therapeutic switch for patients who are no longer targeted.

Acceptability and usability of HIV self-tests in two European countries: findings from surveys of clients at non-governmental organisations in Lithuania and Italy

Background

Uptake of HIV self-tests (HIVST) remains low in Europe. We conducted two separate surveys to understand facilitators and barriers to the use of HIVST in two European countries, as part of the EU INTEGRATE Joint Action. In both countries, HIV has been legal since 2016. In Lithuania, where HIVST sales have been low, the survey primarily assessed acceptability whilst in Italy, with better HIVST uptake, usability was the focus.

Methods

Participants were recruited through community HIV testing sites, and in Lithuania also through social media. In Lithuania, participants self-completed a survey on their testing history, and attitudes toward and experiences with self-testing. In Italy participants performed an HIVST (Mylan Autotest) while being observed by a community health worker (CHW). Both participants and CHW completed a self-administered survey evaluating the experience of the participant.

Results

In Lithuania, awareness of HIV self-testing (75%) was high among the 138 people who completed the survey. Privacy and confidentiality (70%) was the most common reason to use an HIVST whilst cost was reported as the main barrier by 60%, only 15% were willing to pay the current price. Almost half (42%) were concerned about doing the test incorrectly and 36% preferred that a trained person could discuss their result. Purchasing HIVST at a pharmacy (70%) or online (61%) was favoured and 68% would opt to simultaneously test for other infections.

In Italy, 28 people who had never used an HIVST before were observed using one. 43% found the test easy to use but CHWs reported that 36% of participants failed at least one step. The quick result (68%) was the most common reason to use one again, yet the main concerns were the lack of counselling (50%) and reading result alone (32%).

Conclusions

HIVST are acceptable and usable, however cost is a major barrier. Local and national strategies are needed to increase awareness of and access to HIVST and target HIVST campaigns toward key risk groups such as MSM. Meanwhile, steps can be taken to improve testing instructions and support for self-testers. Offering multiplex testing for other infections would also likely increase uptake.

The role of socio-demographic determinants in the geo-spatial distribution of newly diagnosed HIV infections in small areas of Catalonia (Spain)

BACKGROUND

Spatial visualization of HIV surveillance data could improve the planning of programs to address the HIV epidemic. The objectives of the study were to describe the characteristics and the spatial distribution of newly diagnosed HIV infection in Catalonia and to identify factors associated with HIV infection rates.

METHODS

Surveillance data from the national registry were presented in the form of descriptive and ring maps and used to study the spatial distribution of new HIV diagnoses in Catalonia (2012-2016) and associated risk factors at the small area level (ABS, acronym for "basic health area" in Catalan). Incident cases were modeled using the following as predictors: type of municipality, prevalence of young men and migrant groups, GBMSM activity indicators, and other variables at the aggregated level.

RESULTS

New HIV diagnoses are heterogeneously distributed across Catalonia. The predictors that proved to be significantly associated with a higher rate of new HIV diagnoses were ABS located in the city of Barcelona (IRR, 2.520; P < 0.001), a higher proportion of men aged 15-44 years (IRR, 1.193; P = 0.003), a higher proportion of GBMSM (IRR, 1.230; P = 0.030), a higher proportion of men from Western Europe (IRR, 1.281; P = 0.003), a higher proportion of men from Latin America (IRR, 1.260; P = 0.003), and a higher number of gay locations (IRR, 2.665; P < 0.001). No association was observed between the HIV diagnosis rate and economic deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

Ring maps revealed substantial spatial associations for the rate of new HIV diagnoses. New HIV diagnoses are concentrated in ABS located in urban areas. Our results show that, in the case of HIV infection, the socioeconomic deprivation index on which the Catalan government bases its budget allocation policies among the ABS should not be the only criterion used.

Partial Achievement of the 90-90-90 UNAIDS Target in a Cohort of HIV Infected Patients from Central Italy

BACKGROUND

Despite progress in the prevention and treatment of HIV, persistent issues concerning the evaluation of continuum in care from the serological diagnosis to virologic success remains. Considering the 2020 UNAIDS target 90-90-90 for diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression of people living with HIV (PLWH), our purpose was to verify if, starting from new diagnoses, the viral suppression rate of our cohort of new PLWH satisfied the second and the third steps.

METHODS

This retrospective study regards all patients aged ≥15 undergoing HIV test at our clinic between January 2005 and December 2017. We evaluated the second and the third '90 UNAIDS targets and the unclaimed tests, linkage to care, retention in ART, and the viral suppression at 1 and 2 years. Logistic regression (odds ratio, 95% confidence interval) was performed.

RESULTS

We observed 592 new diagnoses for HIV infection: 61.4% on Italians, 38.5% on foreigners. An antiretroviral treatment was started on 78.8% of the new diagnoses (467/592) (second UNAIDS target), and a viral suppression was obtained at 2 years on 82% of PLWH who had started ART (383/467) (third UNAIDS target), namely only 64.7% of the new diagnoses instead of the hoped-for 81% of the UNAIDS target. Logistic regressions demonstrated that second and third '90 UNAIDS targets were unrelated to sex, nationality, CD4 cells count, HIV-RNA and CDC stage (p>0.05). The age class 25-50 years (OR=2.24; 95% CI = 1.06-4.37; p=0.04) achieves more likely viral suppression when compared with patients <25 years. Considering the continuum of care, 88 (15%) PLWH were lost to engagement in care (55 unclaimed tests and 33 unlinked to care), 37 didn't start ART, 51 were LFTU at 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

UNAIDS goal was far to be reached. The main challenges were unreturned tests as well as the retention in ART. Rapid tests for a test-treat strategy and frequent phone communications in the first ART years could facilitate UNAIDS target achievement.

Estimating the First 90 of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 Goal: A Review

Estimating the population with undiagnosed HIV (PUHIV) is the most methodologically challenging aspect of evaluating 90-90-90 goals. The objective of this review is to discuss assumptions, strengths, and shortcomings of currently available methods of this estimation. Articles from 2000 to 2018 on methods to estimate PUHIV were reviewed. Back-calculation methods including CD4 depletion and test-retest use diagnosis CD4 count, or previous testing history to determine likely infection time thus, providing an estimate of PUHIV for previous years. Biomarker methods use immunoassays to differentiate recent from older infections. Statistical techniques treat HIV status as missing data and impute data for models of infection. Lastly, population surveys using HIV rapid testing most accurately calculates the current HIV prevalence. Although multiple methods exist to estimate the number of PUHIV, the appropriate method for future applications depends on multiple factors, namely data availability and population of interest.

People living with undiagnosed HIV infection and a low CD4 count: estimates from surveillance data, Italy, 2012 to 2014

Background and aims

Late HIV diagnosis is associated with onward HIV transmission, higher morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. In Italy, more than half of people living with HIV were diagnosed late during the last decade, with a CD4 count < 350 cells/mm³ at diagnosis. We aimed to determine the number and characteristics of people living with undiagnosed HIV infection and low CD4 counts in Italy.

Methods

Data on newly reported HIV diagnoses from 2012 –2014 were obtained from the national HIV surveillance system. We used the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control HIV modelling tool to calculate the undiagnosed prevalence and yearly diagnosed fraction (YDF) in people with low CD4 count.

Results

The estimated annual number undiagnosed HIV infections with low CD4 count was on average 6,028 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4,954–8,043) from 2012–2014. In 2014, most of the undiagnosed people with low CD4 count were men (82.8%), a third acquired HIV through sex between men (MSM) (35.0%), and heterosexual transmission (33.4%), respectively. The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was 11.3 (95% CI: 9.3–14.9) per 100,000 residents ranging from 0.7 to 20.8 between Italian regions. Nationally the prevalence rate was 280.4 (95% CI: 173.3–450.2) per 100,000 MSM, 8.3 (95% CI: 4.9–13.6) per 100,000 heterosexual men, and 3.0 (95% CI: 1.4–5.6) per 100,000 women. The YDF was highest among heterosexual women (27.1%; 95% CI: 16.9–45.2%).

Conclusions

These findings highlight the importance of improving efforts to identify undiagnosed HIV infections primarily among men, both MSM and heterosexual men.

Undiagnosed HIV infections among gay and bisexual men increasingly contribute to new infections in Australia

Introduction

We determined the contribution of undiagnosed HIV to new infections among gay and bisexual men (GBM) over a 12‐year period in Australia where there has been increasing focus on improving testing and HIV treatment coverage.

Methods

We generated annual estimates for each step of the HIV cascade and the number of new HIV infections for GBM in Australia over 2004 to 2015 using relevant national data. Using Bayesian melding we then fitted a quantitative model to the cascade and incidence estimates to infer relative transmission coefficients associated with being undiagnosed, diagnosed and not on ART, on ART with unsuppressed virus, or on ART with suppressed virus.

Results

Between 2004 and 2015, we estimated the percentage of GBM with HIV in Australia who were unaware of their status to have decreased from 14.5% to 7.5%. During the same period, there was a substantial increase in the number and proportion of GBM living with HIV on treatment and with suppressed virus, with the number of virally suppressed GBM increasing from around 3900 (30.2% of all GBM living with HIV) in 2004 to around 14,000 (73.7% of all GBM living with HIV) in 2015. Despite the increase in viral suppression, the annual number of new infections rose from around 660 to around 760 over this period. Our results have a wide range due to the uncertainty in the cascade estimates and transmission coefficients. Nevertheless, undiagnosed GBM increasingly appear to contribute to new infections. The proportion of new infections attributable to undiagnosed GBM almost doubled from 33% in 2004 to 59% in 2015. Only a small proportion (<7%) originated from GBM with suppressed virus.

Discussion

Our study suggests that an increase in HIV treatment coverage in Australia has reduced the overall risk of HIV transmission from people living with HIV. However, the proportion of infections and the rate of transmission from undiagnosed GBM has increased substantially. These findings highlight the importance of HIV testing and intensified prevention for Australian GBM at high risk of HIV.

Disengagement and reengagement of HIV continuum of care in a single center cohort in northern Italy

Background: Despite the progress in HIV care, adherence to follow up remains critical. Disengagement impairs the benefit of HIV care and the increasing number of data that associates failed retention with worse outcomes has led public health institutions to consider retention in care as a new tool to fight against HIV pandemic. Objective: The aim of this retrospective, observational study was to estimate the burden of disengagement and reengagement in care in our HIV cohort and to identify the characteristics of our LTFU and reengaged patients. Moreover, we build our cascade of care to explore how closely our center aligned with the "90-90-90" targets. Methods: From the local electronic database we extracted all HIV-infected patients with at least one contact with HIV Clinic between 2012 and 2018 excluding deceased and transferred patients. Our definition of LTFU was based on the lack of any visit during at least 1 year after the last visit. Patients re-engaged were defined as those firstly considered as LTFU patients who subsequently were newly linked to HIV care. Results: About 8% of patients were lost to follow up during the period of study, with a rate of less than 2% per year and 14.1% of them were re-engaged in care. The cascade of care shows, among HIV cases diagnosed between 2011 and 2018, 86.7% patients retained in care, 94.1% of whom were on cART and 95.6% of whom were virologically suppressed. A higher attrition was found among infections diagnosed since 2011 than before 2011, such as women, patients coming from foreign countries and those with poor virological control. Conclusions: The retention rate found in our cohort is high and is in accordance with the 90-90-90 strategy. Nevertheless, understanding disengagement and re-engagement determinants is important to strengthen retention in care in the most fragile population.

Estimating the number of people living with HIV and the undiagnosed fraction in Spain in 2013

OBJECTIVE

We aim to estimate the number of people living with HIV and the undiagnosed fraction in Spain, where coverage of the HIV surveillance system has only recently become complete.

METHODS

The reconstruction of all HIV diagnoses and infections was obtained by combining HIV and AIDS surveillance data. The imputation of the diagnoses and back-calculation of the infection incidence are integrated in a Bayesian framework to take into account the uncertainty associated with unavailable data.

RESULTS

An estimated 141 000 [95% credible interval (CI) 128 000-155 000] persons were living with HIV by the end of 2013, in Spain and 18% (95% CI 14.3-22.1%) were unaware of it. A similar fraction of undiagnosed infections was obtained in men who have sex with men and heterosexuals (18.8 and 20.1%, respectively), but for injection drug users, this fraction was 3.5%.

CONCLUSION

This study provides the first estimates of the number of people living with HIV and the undiagnosed fraction in Spain, using routine surveillance data. The proposed method could be useful for countries where the geographical coverage of the HIV surveillance system is partial or was completed only recently.

Behavioural and demographic correlates of undiagnosed HIV infection in a MSM sample recruited in 13 European cities

Background

Reducing the number of people with undiagnosed HIV infection is a major goal of HIV control and prevention efforts in Europe and elsewhere. We analysed data from a large multi-city European bio-behavioural survey conducted among Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) for previously undiagnosed HIV infections, and aimed to characterise undiagnosed MSM who test less frequently than recommended.

Methods

Data on sexual behaviours and social characteristics of MSM with undiagnosed HIV infection from Sialon II, a bio-behavioural cross-sectional survey conducted in 13 European cities in 2013/2014, were compared with HIV-negative MSM. Based on reported HIV-testing patterns, we distinguished two subgroups: MSM with a negative HIV test result within 12 months prior to the study, i.e. undiagnosed incident infection, and HIV positive MSM with unknown onset of infection. Bivariate and multivariate associations of explanatory variables were analysed. Distinct multivariate multi-level random-intercept models were estimated for the entire group and both subgroups.

Results

Among 497 participants with HIV-reactive specimens, 234 (47.1%) were classified as previously diagnosed, 106 (21.3%) as incident, and 58 (11.7%) as unknown onset based on self-reported status and testing history. MSM with incident HIV infection were twice as likely (odds ratio (OR) = 2.22, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.17–4.21) to have used recreational substances during their last anal sex encounter and four times more likely (OR = 3.94, 95%CI: 2.14–7.27) not to discuss their HIV status with the last anal sex partner(s). MSM with unknown onset of HIV infection were 3.6 times more likely (OR = 3.61, 95%CI: 1.74–7.50) to report testing for a sexually transmitted infection (STI) during the last 12 months.

Conclusions

Approximately one third of the study participants who are living with HIV were unaware of their infection. Almost two-third (65%) of those with undiagnosed HIV appeared to have acquired the infection recently, emphasizing a need for more frequent testing. Men with the identified behavioural characteristics could be considered as primary target group for HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) to avoid HIV infection. The increased odds of those with unknown onset of HIV infection to have had an STI test in the past year strongly suggests a lost opportunity to offer HIV testing.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3249-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Predictors of retention in care in HIV-infected patients in a large hospital cohort in Italy

Retention in care is a key feature of the cascade of continuum of care, playing an important role in achieving therapeutic success and being crucial for reduction of HIV transmission. The aim of this study was to evaluate the rate of retention in care in a large referral centre in the North of Italy and to identify predictors associated with failed retention. All new HIV-infected subjects were consecutive enrolled from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2014. Demographics, immune-virological status, hepatitis co-infection and timing of initiation of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) data were collected at baseline and at the time of last observation. Failed retention in care was defined as lack of laboratory data, clinical visits and drug dispensation for more than 6 months from the last visit. Cox regression analysis was used. Multivariate analysis of variables with P<0.05 in univariate analysis was performed. We enrolled 269 patients (mean age 46.1 years). Males were 197 (73%), Italian 219 (81%) with mean length of disease of 5.1 years. cART was prescribed for 257 patients (95%). The rate of retention in care was 78.4% and the rate of virological suppression was 75%. Predictors of being loss to follow-up were foreign origin (P = 0.048), CD4+ count <200/mmc (P = 0.001) and not being treated for HIV infection (P = 0.0004). Predictors of cART efficacy were shorter duration of HIV infection and baseline HIV-RNA <100 000 copies/ml. These findings underline the necessity to improve retention in care by identifying groups at increased risk of being loss to follow-up. Retention in care of vulnerable population is crucial to reach 90-90-90 UNAIDS endpoint.

Estimating the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia, Spain: descriptive and comparative data analysis to identify differences in MSM stratified by migrant and Spanish-born population

OBJECTIVE

Undiagnosed HIV continues to be a hindrance to efforts aimed at reducing incidence of HIV. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia and compare the HIV care cascade with this step included between high-risk populations.

METHODS

To estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis and the undiagnosed population stratified by CD4 count, we used the ECDC HIV Modelling Tool V.1.2.2. This model uses data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses from the Catalan HIV/AIDS surveillance system from 2001 to 2013. Data used to estimate the proportion of people enrolled, on ART and virally suppressed in the HIV care cascade were derived from the PISCIS cohort.

RESULTS

The total number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Catalonia in 2013 was 34 729 (32 740 to 36 827), with 12.3% (11.8 to 18.1) of whom were undiagnosed. By 2013, there were 8458 (8101 to 9079) Spanish-born men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2538 (2334 to 2918) migrant MSM living with HIV in Catalonia. A greater proportion of migrant MSM than local MSM was undiagnosed (32% vs 22%). In the subsequent steps of the HIV care cascade, migrants MSM experience greater losses than the Spanish-born MSM: in retention in care (74% vs 55%), in the proportion on combination antiretroviral treatment (70% vs 50%) and virally suppressed (65% vs 46%).

CONCLUSIONS

By the end of 2013, there were an estimated 34 729 PLHIV in Catalonia, of whom 4271 were still undiagnosed. This study shows that the Catalan epidemic of HIV has continued to expand with the key group sustaining HIV transmission being MSM living with undiagnosed HIV.

Continuum of care among HIV-1 positive patients in a single center in Italy (2007-2017)

AIM

This study aimed to determine rates of retention in care, viral suppression, and use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and identify risk factors for loss to follow-up (FU) in an adult cohort from a tertiary teaching hospital in Florence, Italy.

METHODS

We included all newly diagnosed HIV-infected patients aged >18 years who were linked to our clinic from July 2007 to December 2015. On July 31, 2017, we evaluated the proportion of patients retained in care, on ART, and having HIV RNA <50 copies/mL. We assessed predictors of loss to FU through univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

We included 423 patients. By July 2017, 23 (5.5%) patients died, 25 (5.9%) moved to a different center, and 64 (15.1%) were lost to follow-up. Among the remaining 311 patients (73.5%), 96.5% were on ART and 95% had HIV RNA <50 copies/mL. After adjustment for sex, age at diagnosis, origin, and risk of transmission, our results showed a lower retention rate in those not on ART at the end of the follow-up (adjusted HR [aHR]: 10.33, 95% CI 5.80-18.40, P<0.001), non-Italians (aHR: 1.69, 95% CI: 0.99-2.89, P=0.054) and <35 years old (aHR: 1.85; 95% CI 1.04-3.30, P=0.037).

CONCLUSION

In our hospital in Florence, we found a gap in retention in care among foreigners, people <35 years old, and those who were not in treatment at the end of the follow-up. The results of this study may help to identify opportunities for appropriate future interventions.

[Cobatest network: users' characteristics of community-based voluntary,counselling and testing centres in Spain.]

OBJECTIVE

The COBATEST network (European network of community-based voluntary, counselling and testing centers) allows standardized collection of information to monitor HIV testing at these centers. The objective was to describe the performance of the Spanish centers of the COBATEST network and the epidemiological profile of its users, and to analyze the factors associated with having an earlier HIV test.

METHODS

Descriptive analysis of the data collected in the 19 Spanish centers that used the common information collection tools during the year 2015. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with having an earlier test.

RESULTS

A total of 6,077 HIV rapid tests were performed and 1.8% were reactive (3.0% MSM, 3.1% SW, 2.3% PWID, 0.6% heterosexual). 82.1% of the reactives were referred to perform a confirmatory test and 94 (97.9%) were HIV positive, of whom 54% were diverted to the health system. 38% said they had never been tested for HIV. Factors associated with having a previous HIV test were: being over 20 years old; being HSH, SW, or PWID; being foreign; having used condoms at the last penetration; having had an STI in the last year; and having been in jail.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show the great potential of these services to reach people who have never been tested for HIV. The HIV cases are concentrated in vulnerable groups. It is necessary to improve the linkage of diagnosed people to health care services.

High percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases within a hyperendemic South African community: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Undiagnosed HIV infections could undermine efforts to reverse the global AIDS epidemic by 2030. In this study, we estimated the percentage of HIV-positive persons who remain undiagnosed within a hyperendemic South African community.

METHODS

The data come from a population-based surveillance system located in the Umkhanyakude district of the northern KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. We annually tested 38 661 adults for HIV between 2005 and 2016. Using the HIV-positive test results of 12 039 (31%) participants, we then back-calculated the incidence of infection and derived the number of undiagnosed cases from this result.

RESULTS

The percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases decreased from 29.3% in 2005 to 15.8% in 2011. During this period, however, approximately 50% of the participants refused to test for HIV, which lengthened the average time from infection to diagnosis. Consequently, the percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases reversed direction and steadily increased from 16.1% to 18.9% over the 2012-2016 period.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from this hyperendemic South African setting show that the HIV testing rate is low, with long infection times, and an unsatisfactorily high percentage of undiagnosed cases. A high level of repeat HIV testing is needed to minimise the time from infection to diagnosis if the global AIDS epidemic is to be reversed within the next two decades.

People diagnosed with HIV and in care in Italy in 2014: results from the second national survey

We conducted a second National survey in all Italian Infectious Disease clinics to assess the number of people diagnosed and linked to care and, among these, the number of people on antiretroviral therapy and viral load suppressed. In 2014, 100,049 (0.16 per 100 residents) people diagnosed and linked to care were estimated, corresponding to an increase of 6.3% compared to the survey conducted in 2012. Among people diagnosed and linked to care, 91.9% were on antiretroviral therapy (increase of 11.4% compared to 2012), and among these, 87.7% were viral load suppressed. Overall, the majority were males (72.1%), Italians (82.7%), aged 25-49 years (45.6%); the most common HIV mode of transmission was reported to be in heterosexual contact (37.9%) and men who had sex with men (31.3%); 8.8% had less than 350 CD4 cells/μL, 82.4% had VL <50 copies and 22.9% had a CDC stage C. In conclusion, the number of people diagnosed and linked to care was increasing. The vast majority of them was receiving ART but the percentage of people still with a detectable viral load was lower than the 90-90-90 WHO target.

Occult HIV infection in a large sample of health-care users in Lombardy, Italy in 2014-2015: implications for control strategies

We estimated the number of people unaware of their human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in our province, Pavia (population 540 000) in Lombardy, Italy, by means of anonymous unlinked testing of 10 044 serum/plasma samples residual from clinical analyses at the outpatient clinic of Policlinico San Matteo in 2014 and 2015. Ethical and legal approval was obtained prior to study start. Samples were irreversibly anonymised, only retaining gender and 5-year age class. Five sample pools were tested for HIV using LIAISON® XL MUREX HIV Ab/Ag (DiaSorin, Saluggia, Italy). If the pool tested positive, individual samples underwent confirmatory tests, Innotest HIV Antigen mAb (Fujirebio Europe, Gent, Belgium) and HIV BLOT 2·2 (MP Diagnostics, Singapore). Among the 10 044 samples processed, eight were confirmed positive (0·08%, 95% confidence interval 0·03-0·16%), all were males and age was >50 in 3 (37·5%). If projected to the entire population of the Pavia province, this would result in approximately 1000 people unaware of their HIV infection, with age older than expected. In Italy, HIV testing is voluntary, universally free-of-charge and (upon request) anonymous. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that it is suboptimally employed, and that new strategies and population-level actions will be needed to achieve better implementation of HIV testing and HIV control in our province.

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Continuum of Care in European Union Countries in 2013: Data and Challenges

BACKGROUND.

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a "90-90-90" target to curb the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic by 2020, but methods used to assess whether countries have reached this target are not standardized, hindering comparisons.

METHODS.

Through a collaboration formed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) with European HIV cohorts and surveillance agencies, we constructed a standardized, 4-stage continuum of HIV care for 11 European Union countries for 2013. Stages were defined as (1) number of people living with HIV in the country by end of 2013; (2) proportion of stage 1 ever diagnosed; (3) proportion of stage 2 that ever initiated ART; and (4) proportion of stage 3 who became virally suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). Case surveillance data were used primarily to derive stages 1 (using back-calculation models) and 2, and cohort data for stages 3 and 4.

RESULTS.

In 2013, 674500 people in the 11 countries were estimated to be living with HIV, ranging from 5500 to 153400 in each country. Overall HIV prevalence was 0.22% (range, 0.09%-0.36%). Overall proportions of each previous stage were 84% diagnosed, 84% on ART, and 85% virally suppressed (60% of people living with HIV). Two countries achieved ≥90% for all stages, and more than half had reached ≥90% for at least 1 stage.

CONCLUSIONS.

European Union countries are nearing the 90-90-90 target. Reducing the proportion undiagnosed remains the greatest barrier to achieving this target, suggesting that further efforts are needed to improve HIV testing rates. Standardizing methods to derive comparable continuums of care remains a challenge.

HIV-Positive Individuals on Antiretroviral Therapy and with Viral Load Suppressed in 12 Infectious Diseases Clinics in Italy: Successes and Disparities in the HIV Continuum of Care

The HIV care continuum is a tool that describes the quality of HIV care for people living with HIV and assesses the extent to which the goal of viral suppression has been achieved. In 2014, we conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study to assess the characteristics associated with three steps of the HIV continuum of care in Italy [i.e., most recent diagnoses, people diagnosed and in care who are on therapy, and people with viral load (VL) suppressed among those on therapy]. Among the 10,262 individuals diagnosed and linked to care, 9,810 (95.6%) were on therapy and among these 8,383 (85.7%) had VL suppressed. The comparison between people diagnosed in 2013 to those diagnosed before 2013 shows that they were more likely to be male [adjusted odds ratios (AOR) = 1.46; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.18-1.79], <25 years of age (AOR = 7.59; 95% CI: 4.17-13.79), and born in Italy (AOR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.09-1.62). Factors significantly associated with not being in therapy were as follows: age <35 years (AOR = 4.03; 95% CI: 2.50-6.51), age 35-55 years (AOR = 1.85; 95% CI: 1.19-2.87), being migrants (AOR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.13-1.39), being men who have sex with men (MSM) (AOR = 1.54; 95% CI: 1.22-1.95), have been diagnosed in 2010-2012 (AOR = 4.51; 95% CI: 3.03-6.73), or before 2010 (AOR = 3.18; 95% CI: 2.41-4.21), and not had previous clinical AIDS (AOR = 8.24; 95% CI: 3.33-20.23), whereas factors significantly associated with not having VL suppressed were as follows: age <35 years (AOR = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.13-2.13) and age 35-55 years (AOR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.10-1.38), being migrants (AOR = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.11-1.70), have been diagnosed in 2010-2012 (AOR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.14-1.57), in 2013 (AOR = 4.35; 95% CI: 2.47-7.68), and not having had previous clinical AIDS (AOR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63-0.86). Despite this we observed significant disparities for young people, MSM, and migrants, overall in Italy the vast majority of people diagnosed with HIV and in care in 2013 received therapy and the percentage of people who are VL suppressed is near the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS goal.

Estimating HIV incidence and number of undiagnosed individuals living with HIV in the European Union/European Economic Area, 2015

Since 2011, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence appears unchanged in the European Union/European Economic Area with between 29,000 and 33,000 new cases reported annually up to 2015. Despite evidence that HIV diagnosis is occurring earlier post-infection, the estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who were unaware of being infected in 2015 was 122,000, or 15% of all PLHIV (n=810,000). This is concerning as such individuals cannot benefit from highly effective treatment and may unknowingly sustain transmission.

Trigger-oriented HIV testing at Internal Medicine hospital Departments in Northern Italy: an observational study (Fo.C.S. Study)

BACKGROUND

Early detection of undiagnosed HIV infected patients is of paramount importance. The attitude of Italian hospital-based Internal Medicine physicians to prescribe HIV testing following the detection of HIV-associated signs, symptoms and behaviours (triggers) has been reported to be poor. The aim of the study is to quantify the extent of the missed opportunities for early HIV diagnosis in Internal Medicine Departments (IMD).

METHODS

Patients admitted to IMD of a General University Hospital in Italy in March-June 2013 were interviewed using a structured questionnaire investigating the presence of triggers for HIV testing, including patient's characteristics, symptoms and conditions associated with HIV infection. HIV tests performed during hospitalisation were recorded.

RESULTS

HIV testing was performed in 73 (6.6%) out of 1113 hospitalisations (1072 patients), providing positive results in three cases (4.1%). All of them presented ≥1 triggers. Conversely, 853 triggers were identified in 528 hospitalisations with at least one trigger (47.4%). The proportion of hospitalisations where an HIV testing was prescribed was 3.1%, 9.5% and 16.0% in the presence of zero, one-to-two or more triggers, respectively. Age <70 years, female gender, length of hospital stay, haematological disease, HBV infection, multiple sexual partners and lymphadenopathy were predictors of HIV testing by logistic regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Although chances of an HIV test being performed in patients hospitalised in IMD increases along with the number of triggers, the number of tests being performed in people presenting with triggers is unacceptably low and requires educational interventions in order to obtain individual and public health advantages.

PEP and TasP Awareness among Italian MSM, PLWHA, and High-Risk Heterosexuals and Demographic, Behavioral, and Social Correlates

Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) has been proposed as a strategy to prevent the acquisition of HIV infection after certain high-risk exposures, and treatment as prevention (TasP) is also being advocated as a means to reduce sexual transmission of HIV. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of PEP and TasP awareness and their demographic, behavioral, and social correlates in Italy. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 1,028 high-risk heterosexual men and women, 1,874 non-HIV positive MSM (men who have sex with men), and 694 people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). The majority of the participants was aware of PEP and unaware of TasP. MSM were less knowledgeable about PEP and TasP than were PLWHA and more knowledgeable about PEP and TasP than were high-risk heterosexual participants. The variables most consistently associated with PEP and TasP awareness were contact with HIV/AIDS organizations, HIV testing, and HIV stigma. A positive relationship between unprotected sexual intercourse and PEP and TasP awareness was found among high risk heterosexual participants, while this association was not significant among MSM and PLWHA. Because PEP and TasP are currently recommended, effective educational and dissemination strategies are needed to increase the level of knowledge about PEP and TasP.