Frequency and impact of suboptimal immune recovery on first-line antiretroviral therapy within the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS in East Africa

Specific plasma microRNAs are associated with CD4 + T-cell recovery during suppressive antiretroviral therapy for HIV-1

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the association of plasma microRNAs before and during antiretroviral therapy (ART) with poor CD4 + T-cell recovery during the first year of ART.

DESIGN

MicroRNAs were retrospectively measured in stored plasma samples from people with HIV (PWH) in sub-Saharan Africa who were enrolled in a longitudinal multicountry cohort and who had plasma viral-load less than 50 copies/ml after 12 months of ART.

METHODS

First, the levels of 179 microRNAs were screened in a subset of participants from the lowest and highest tertiles of CD4 + T-cell recovery (ΔCD4) ( N  = 12 each). Next, 11 discordant microRNAs, were validated in 113 participants (lowest tertile ΔCD4: n  = 61, highest tertile ΔCD4: n  = 52). For discordant microRNAs in the validation, a pathway analysis was conducted. Lastly, we compared microRNA levels of PWH to HIV-negative controls.

RESULTS

Poor CD4 + T-cell recovery was associated with higher levels of hsa-miR-199a-3p and hsa-miR-200c-3p before ART, and of hsa-miR-17-5p and hsa-miR-501-3p during ART. Signaling by VEGF and MET, and RNA polymerase II transcription pathways were identified as possible targets of hsa-miR-199a-3p, hsa-200c-3p, and hsa-miR-17-5p. Compared with HIV-negative controls, we observed lower hsa-miR-326, hsa-miR-497-5p, and hsa-miR-501-3p levels before and during ART in all PWH, and higher hsa-miR-199a-3p and hsa-miR-200c-3p levels before ART in all PWH, and during ART in PWH with poor CD4 + T-cell recovery only.

CONCLUSION

These findings add to the understanding of pathways involved in persistent HIV-induced immune dysregulation during suppressive ART.

Role of thymosin α1 in restoring immune response in immunological nonresponders living with HIV

BACKGROUND

Immunological nonresponders (INRs) living with HIV are at increased risk of co-infection and multiple tumors, with no effective strategy currently available to restore their T-cell immune response. This study aimed to explore the safety and efficacy of thymosin α1 in reconstituting the immune response in INRs.

METHODS

INRs with CD4 + T cell counts between 100 and 350 cells/μL were enrolled and received two-staged 1.6 mg thymosin α1 subcutaneous injections for 24 weeks (daily in the first 2 weeks and biweekly in the subsequent 22 weeks) while continuing antiretroviral therapy. T cell counts and subsets, the expression of PD-1 and TIM-3 on T cells, and signal joint T cell receptor excision circles (sjTREC) at week 24 were evaluated as endpoints.

RESULTS

Twenty three INRs were screened for eligibility, and 20 received treatment. The majority were male (19/20), with a median age of 48.1 years (interquartile range: 40.5-57.0) and had received antiretroviral therapy for 5.0 (3.0, 7.3) years. Multiple comparisons indicated that CD4 + T cell count and sjTREC increased after initiation of treatment, although no significant differences were observed at week 24 compared to baseline. Greatly, levels of CD4 + T cell proportion (17.2% vs. 29.1%, P < 0.001), naïve CD4 + and CD8 + T cell proportion (17.2% vs. 41.1%, P < 0.001; 13.8% vs. 26.6%, P = 0.008) significantly increased. Meanwhile, the proportion of CD4 + central memory T cells of HIV latent hosts (42.7% vs. 10.3%, P < 0.001) significantly decreased. Moreover, the expression of PD-1 on CD4 + T cells (14.1% vs. 6.5%, P < 0.001) and CD8 + T cells (8.5% vs. 4.1%, P < 0.001) decreased, but the expression of TIM-3 on T cellsremained unaltered at week 24. No severe adverse events were reported and HIV viral loads kept stable throughout the study.

CONCLUSIONS

Thymosin α1 enhance CD4 + T cell count and thymic output albeit as a trend rather than an endpoint. Importantly, it improves immunosenescence and decreases immune exhaustion, warranting further investigation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This single-arm prospective study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04963712) on July 15, 2021.

Prevalence of and prognosis for poor immunological recovery by virally suppressed and aged HIV-infected patients

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) prolongs lifespan and decreases mortality of HIV infected patients. However, many patients do not achieve optimal immune reconstitution. The influence of non-optimal immune recovery on non-AIDS related diseases is not well defined in aged HIV-infected patients receiving ART.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted at Tianjin Second People's Hospital, China to evaluate the association of an inadequate immunological response and non-AIDS diseases in HIV infected patients ≥60 years of age and virally suppressed for at least 2 years by ART.

Results

The study included patients (n = 666) who initiated ART between August 2009 and December 2020. The prevalence of patients with an inadequate immunological response was 29.6%. The percentage of non-AIDS diseases such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, tumor, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) was 32.9, 9.9, 31, 4.1, and 13%, respectively. In addition to baseline CD4+ T cell counts, CVD and tumor were associated with poor immune reconstitution in aged Chinese HIV-1 infected patients. The adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) were AOR 2.45 (95% CI: 1.22-4.93) and 3.06 (95% CI: 1.09-8.56, p = 0.03). Inadequate immunological response was associated with greater mortality (AOR: 2.83, 95% CI: 1.42-5.67, p = 0.003) in this cohort.

Conclusion

These results tend to demonstrate appropriate drug selection at ART initiation and prevention of non-AIDS complications during ART decreased mortality of and an inadequate immunological response in aged HIV infected patients.

Clinical characteristics and morbidity among hospitalized adults with advanced HIV disease in Uganda during 'test and treat' era

Nearly four decades after the first case of AIDS was described, the global number of AIDS-related deaths has steadily declined but falls short of the elimination targets, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite interventions to promote early HIV diagnosis and treatment, hospitalization and mortality related to advanced HIV disease (AHD) remains a significant public health problem in Uganda. We assessed the HIV treatment history and causes of hospitalization among in-patients with AHD at a tertiary hospital in Uganda. In this cross-sectional study, pre-hospitalization HIV treatment history and clinical characteristics of HIV-positive in-patients with CD4<200 cells/μL or WHO stage 3 or 4 clinical events were assessed. Descriptive data were summarized using percentages and medians. Among hospitalized adults with AHD from November 2021 to June 2022, 74% (260/353) knew their HIV status prior to hospitalization and 62% (219/353) were ART experienced at presentation. The median time since ART initiation was 28 months (IQR; 2-97). Overall, 73% (258/353) had at least two etiological diagnoses and the majority (non-mutually exclusive) were diagnosed with tuberculosis (61.2%), cryptococcal meningitis (20.7%), mucosal candidiasis (16.1%) and bacterial infections (15%). In conclusion, nearly two-thirds of in-patients with advanced HIV disease were ART experienced prior to hospitalization and tuberculosis was the most common cause of hospitalization. Innovative strategies to strengthen HIV diagnosis, linkage, and retention in HIV care and to increase coverage of TB preventive therapy are urgently needed.

Metformin may be a viable adjunctive therapeutic option to potentially enhance immune reconstitution in HIV-positive immunological non-responders

ABSTRACT

Incomplete immune reconstitution remains a global challenge for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment in the present era of potent antiretroviral therapy (ART), especially for those individuals referred to as immunological non-responders (INRs), who exhibit dramatically low CD4 + T-cell counts despite the use of effective antiretroviral therapy, with long-term inhibition of viral replication. In this review, we provide a critical overview of the concept of ART-treated HIV-positive immunological non-response, and also explain the known mechanisms which could potentially account for the emergence of immunological non-response in some HIV-infected individuals treated with appropriate and effective ART. We found that immune cell exhaustion, combined with chronic inflammation and the HIV-associated dysbiosis syndrome, may represent strategic aspects of the immune response that may be fundamental to incomplete immune recovery. Interestingly, we noted from the literature that metformin exhibits properties and characteristics that may potentially be useful to specifically target immune cell exhaustion, chronic inflammation, and HIV-associated gut dysbiosis syndrome, mechanisms which are now recognized for their critically important complicity in HIV disease-related incomplete immune recovery. In light of evidence discussed in this review, it can be seen that metformin may be of particularly favorable use if utilized as adjunctive treatment in INRs to potentially enhance immune reconstitution. The approach described herein may represent a promising area of therapeutic intervention, aiding in significantly reducing the risk of HIV disease progression and mortality in a particularly vulnerable subgroup of HIV-positive individuals.

Immune reconstitution efficacy after combination antiretroviral therapy in male HIV-1 infected patients with homosexual and heterosexual transmission

We aimed to explore the impact of sexual transmission modes on immune reconstitution after combined antiretroviral therapy (cART). We have retrospectively analyzed longitudinal samples from 1557 treated male patients with virological suppression (HIV-1 RNA<50 copies/ml) for at least 2 years. Both heterosexuals (HET) and men who have sex with men (MSM) patients showed an increasing annual trend in CD4⁺ T cell counts after receiving cART (HET, β: 23.51 (cell/µl)/year, 95% CI: 16.70 to 30.31; MSM, β: 40.21 (cell/µl)/year, 95% CI: 35.82 to 44.61). However, the CD4⁺ T cell recovery rate was much lower in HET patients than MSM patients, determined by both the generalized additive mixed model (P < 0.001) and generalized estimating equations (P = 0.026). Besides HIV-1 subtypes, baseline CD4⁺ T cell counts and age at cART initiation, HET was an independent risk factor for immunological non-responders (adjusted OR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.28 to 2.33). HET was also associated with lower probability of achieving conventional immune recovery (adjusted HR: 1.37; 95%CI: 1.22 to 1.67) and optimal immune recovery (adjusted HR: 1.48, 95%CI: 1.04-2.11). Male HET patients might have poorer immune reconstitution ability even after effective cART. Early initiation of cART after diagnosis and clinical monitoring for male HET patients should be highly emphasized.

Evaluation of Clinical Biomarkers Related to CD4 Recovery in HIV-Infected Patients—5-Year Observation

Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection leads to the impairment of immune system function. Even long-term antiretroviral therapy uncommonly leads to the normalization of CD4 count and CD4:CD8 ratio. The aim of this study was to evaluate possible clinical biomarkers which may be related to CD4 and CD4:CD8 ratio recovery among HIV-infected patients with long-term antiretroviral therapy. The study included 68 HIV-infected patients undergoing sustained antiretroviral treatment for a minimum of 5 years. Clinical biomarkers such as age, gender, advancement of HIV infection, coinfections, comorbidities and applied ART regimens were analyzed in relation to the rates of CD4 and CD4:CD8 increase and normalization rates. The results showed that higher rates of CD4 normalization are associated with younger age (p = 0.034), higher CD4 count (p = 0.034) and starting the therapy during acute HIV infection (p = 0.012). Higher rates of CD4:CD8 ratio normalization are correlated with higher CD4 cell count (p = 0.022), high HIV viral load (p = 0.006) and acute HIV infection (p = 0.013). We did not observe statistically significant differences in CD4 recovery depending on gender, HCV/HBV coinfections, comorbidities and opportunistic infections. The obtained results advocate for current recommendations of introducing antiretroviral therapy as soon as possible, preferably during acute HIV infection, since it increases the chances of sufficient immune reconstruction.

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Immunological Nonresponders in Wuhan, China

Objective

CD4⁺ cell recovery is hampered in some human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients, despite a successful highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) with suppressed viral replication. We investigated the factors that might have hindered the CD4⁺ cell recovery in these patients.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we collected the data of all immune nonresponders (INRs) in Wuhan, China, until the end of 2020. A linear model was constructed based on the data from 220 patients with baseline and follow-up records. The response variables in this study were the CD4⁺ cell count increase. The predictor variables considered in this study were those factors likely to affect the CD4⁺ cell recovery.

Results

Our findings revealed that the plasma HIV-1 viral load of all patients was suppressed and 87.3% patients' CD4⁺ cells was increased after more than one year of the HAART treatment. In addition, their last follow-up showed a significant reduction in complications. In our results, the body mass index (BMI), number of months since HIV diagnosis to HAART start, and nonuse of co-trimoxazole were negatively correlated with the increase in CD4⁺ cells (P < 0.05). However, there were positive associations between serum creatinine levels and CD4⁺ cell recovery (P < 0.05). Further stratified analyses indicated that the associations between HAART replacement or creatinine usage and CD4⁺ cell growth were only observed in those participants with a BMI <18.5 (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

An early initiation of HAART and co-trimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) can promote immune reconstitution. BMI and serum creatinine can serve as monitoring indicators of immune reconstitution prognosis after the HAART.

Long-term HIV treatment outcomes and associated factors in sub-Saharan Africa: multi-country longitudinal cohort analysis

OBJECTIVE

In a multicountry prospective cohort of persons with HIV from six countries between 2007 and 2015, we evaluated long-term outcomes of first-line non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy (ART), and risk factors for loss-to-follow-up, mortality, virological failure, and incomplete CD4+ T-cell recovery.

METHODS

We calculated cumulative incidence of lost-to-follow-up, death, virological failure (VL ≥ 1000 cps/ml) and incomplete CD4+ T-cell recovery (<500 cells/μl) at successive years, using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression.

RESULTS

Of 2735 participants, 58.0% were female, median age was 37 (interquartile range [IQR] 32-43) years, and median pre-ART CD4+ T-cell count was 135 (IQR 63-205)/μl. Total follow-up time was 7208 person-years (median 24.3 months, IQR 18.7-58.3). Deaths by any cause and loss to follow-up occurred mostly during the first year of ART (84%, 201/240 and 56%, 199/353, respectively). During their first 6 years of ART, 71% (95% confidence interval [CI] 69.0-73.7) were retained on first-line, and among those 90-93% sustained viral suppression (<1000 cps/ml); CD4+ T-cell recovery was incomplete in 60% (220/363) of participants. The risk factors associated with poor outcomes during long-term ART were: for loss-to-follow-up, recent VL ≥1000 cps/ml, recent CD4+ T-cell count ≤50 cells/μl, age <30 years, being underweight; for mortality, recent CD4+ T-cell count ≤50 cells/μl; and, for virological failure, age <40 years, recent CD4+ T-cell count ≤200 cells/μl, poor adherence, male sex, and low-level viremia.

CONCLUSION

To achieve long-term ART success towards the UNAIDS targets, early ART initiation is crucial, coupled with careful monitoring and retention support, particularly in the first year of ART. Male and youth-centred care delivery models are needed to improve outcomes for those vulnerable groups.

CD4+ cell count recovery after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected Ethiopian adults

Background

CD4+ cell count recovery after effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) is an important determinant of both AIDS and non-AIDS morbidity and mortality. Data on CD4+ cell count recovery after initiation of ART are still limited in Sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of this study was to assess CD4+ cell count recovery among HIV-infected adults initiating ART in an Ethiopian setting.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected adults initiating ART between September 2008 and June 2019 was carried out. CD4+ cell count recovery was defined as an increase in CD4+ cell count of >100 cells/mm³ from baseline or achievement of a CD4+ cell count >500 cells/mm³ at 12 months after ART initiation. Factors associated with CD4+ cell count recovery were evaluated using logistic regression analysis.

Results

Of the 566 patients included in this study, the median baseline CD4+ cell count was 264 cells/mm³ (IQR: 192–500). At 12 months after ART initiation, the median CD4+ cell count increased to 472 cells/mm³, and the proportion of patients with CD4+ cell count < 200 cells/mm³ declined from 28.3 to 15.0%. A total of 58.0% of patients had an increase in CD4+ cell count of >100 cells/mm³ from baseline and 48.6% achieved a CD4+ cell count >500 cells/mm³ at 12 months. Among patients with CD4+ cell counts < 200, 200–350 and >350 cells/mm³ at baseline, respectively, 30%, 43.9% and 61.7% achieved a CD4+ cell count >500 cells/mm³ at 12 months. In multivariable analysis, poor CD4+ cell count recovery (an increase of ≤100 cells/mm³ from baseline) was associated with older age, male sex, higher baseline CD4+ cell count and zidovudine-containing initial regimen. Factors associated with poor CD4+ cell count recovery to reach the level >500 cells/mm³ included older age, male sex and lower baseline CD4+ cell count.

Conclusions

CD4+ cell count failed to recover in a substantial proportion of adults initiating ART in this resource-limited setting. Older age, male sex and baseline CD4+ cell count are the dominant factors for poor CD4+ cell count recovery. Novel therapeutic approaches are needed focusing on high risk patients to maximize CD4+ cell count recovery and improve outcomes during therapy.

Trends in the Epidemiology and Outcomes of Pneumocystis Pneumonia among Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Hospitalizations

Introduction: Pneumocystis Pneumonia (PCP) is a common opportunistic infection among people living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This study’s objective was to assess temporal trends in PCP epidemiology among hospitalized patients with HIV/AIDS in the US and to compare data for hospitalizations with HIV with PCP to those without PCP. Methods: The national inpatient sample (NIS) data were analyzed from 2002−2014. The discharge coding identified hospitalized patients with HIV or AIDS and with or without PCP. Results: We identified 3,011,725 hospitalizations with HIV/AIDS during the study period; PCP was present in 5% of the patients with a diagnosis of HIV. The rates of PCP progressively declined from 6.7% in 2002 to 3.5 % in 2014 (p < 0.001). Overall mortality in patients with HIV was 3.3% and was significantly higher in those with PCP than without PCP (9.9% vs. 2.9%; p < 0.001). After adjusting for demographics and other comorbidities, PCP had higher odds of hospital mortality 3.082 (OR 3.082; 95% CI, 3.007 to 3.159; p < 0.001). Conclusion: From 2002 to 2014, the rate of PCP in HIV patients has decreased significantly in the United States but is associated with substantially higher mortality.

Effects of Artesunate Tablet on Immune Activation and Reconstitution Among Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy-Treated Patients with Incomplete Immune Responses

The level of T cell activation is a better predictor of CD4⁺ T cell depletion in highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) patients than viral load. Artesunate is an artemisinin derivative that has an immunomodulatory effect. This study investigated whether artesunate tablet reduces T cell activation and improves immune reconstitution among patients with suboptimal immune recovery despite receiving long-term effective HAART. This was a randomized prospective parallel open-label trial consisting of 45 participants whose plasma HIV load was effectively suppressed by HAART for >18 months and who had CD4⁺ T cell counts of <300 cells/μL or an increase of <20% from baseline. The patients were randomized 2:1 into the artesunate group or the control group and received artesunate tablets (orally, 50 mg two times daily) combined with HAART or HAART alone, respectively. T cell subsets, activation markers, clinical symptoms, viral load, and side effects were assessed. By 48 weeks, artesunate tablet did not improve CD4⁺ T cell recovery or reduce the activation of T cell subsets but induced in a smaller decline in the expression of T cell activation markers among HAART patients with incomplete immune responses. However, artesunate tablet did appear to reduce the level of T cell apoptosis. One subject developed moderate anemia. Long-term use of artesunate tablet is unlikely to produce substantial clinical benefits in patients receiving HAART who exhibit an incomplete immune response.

Pre-Digested Protein Enteral Nutritional Supplementation Enhances Recovery of CD4+ T Cells and Repair of Intestinal Barrier in HIV-Infected Immunological Non-Responders

AIDS patients with immune non-response are prone to malnutrition, intestinal barrier damage, thus aggravating chronic immune activation and inflammation. However, nutritional interventions targeting malnutrition may be beneficial to restore immune function, improve clinical outcomes, and reduce mortality remains largely unclear. This work aimed to evaluate the efficacy of a nutritional supplement in HIV-infected immune non-responders (INRs). The subjects received oral supplementation of a pre-digested protein nutrition formula for three months. We show that the CD4⁺ T and CD8⁺ T cell counts were significantly increased after supplementation of the pre-digested enteral nutritional supplement. Among all pro-inflammatory cytokines in the serum, only IL-1β level was significantly decreased, while TNF-β was significantly increased (P < 0.05). The levels of intestinal mucosal damage markers, diamine oxidase (DAO), D-lactic acid (D-lactate), and lipopolysaccharide (LPS), decreased significantly (P < 0.05) after the nutritional intervention. Moreover, at month 3 after the intervention, the body weight, body mass index, albumin, and hemoglobin of all subjects were significantly increased (P < 0.05). The correlation analysis demonstrated a significantly negative correlation of CD4⁺ T cell count with levels of DAO (r = -0.343, P = 0.004), D-lactate (r = -0.250, P = 0.037), respectively, and a significantly positive correlation of IL-1β level with levels of DAO (r = 0.445, P < 0.001), D-lactate (r = 0.523, P < 0.001), and LPS (r = 0.622, P < 0.001). We conclude that the pre-digested enteral nutrition supplement is effective for HIV-infected INRs.

A Tale of Two Viruses: Immunological Insights Into HCV/HIV Coinfection

Nearly 2.3 million individuals worldwide are coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Odds of HCV infection are six times higher in people living with HIV (PLWH) compared to their HIV-negative counterparts, with the highest prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM). HIV coinfection has a detrimental impact on the natural history of HCV, including higher rates of HCV persistence following acute infection, higher viral loads, and accelerated progression of liver fibrosis and development of end-stage liver disease compared to HCV monoinfection. Similarly, it has been reported that HCV coinfection impacts HIV disease progression in PLWH receiving anti-retroviral therapies (ART) where HCV coinfection negatively affects the homeostasis of CD4⁺ T cell counts and facilitates HIV replication and viral reservoir persistence. While ART does not cure HIV, direct acting antivirals (DAA) can now achieve HCV cure in nearly 95% of coinfected individuals. However, little is known about how HCV cure and the subsequent resolution of liver inflammation influence systemic immune activation, immune reconstitution and the latent HIV reservoir. In this review, we will summarize the current knowledge regarding the pathogenesis of HIV/HCV coinfection, the effects of HCV coinfection on HIV disease progression in the context of ART, the impact of HIV on HCV-associated liver morbidity, and the consequences of DAA-mediated HCV cure on immune reconstitution and HIV reservoir persistence in coinfected patients.

Oral candidiasis in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients under highly active antiretroviral therapy

Human immunodeficiency virus has plagued mankind since the 1980's when the first case was documented. Human immunodeficiency virus-induced immunocompromised state can lead to several systemic and local manifestations, which often culminates in mortality. Oral candidiasis was one of the most prevalent opportunistic infections noted in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients. The advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy has led to a significant reduction in both the mortality and the morbidity of infected patients. The combined antiretroviral therapy has also led to a decrease in the incidence of opportunistic infections including oral candidiasis. Thus, the presence of well-established oral candidiasis in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients under highly active antiretroviral therapy could be considered as an indicator of potential treatment failure. The present manuscript aims to review the published literature assessing the effect of highly active antiretroviral therapy on the incidence of oral candidiasis in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients.

Vitamin D Assessment Over 48 Weeks in Treatment-Naive HIV Individuals Starting Lopinavir/Ritonavir Monotherapy

BACKGROUND

Vitamin D deficiency is common in HIV population and has been associated with increased comorbidity risk and poor immunologic status.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of protease inhibitor lopinavir/ritonavir monotherapy on changes in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] over 48 weeks.

METHODS

Thirty-four treatment-naïve HIV individuals initiating lopinavir/ritonavir monotherapy and receiving clinical care from private practice in Houston, Texas, were included. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels from stored plasma samples collected from IMANI-2 pilot study at both baseline and 48 weeks were analyzed using LC-MS assays. Mean 25(OH)D at baseline and 48 weeks were compared using paired t-tests. Linear regression analysis was used to evaluate factors associated with changes in 25(OH)D. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the effect of vitamin D status and covariates on CD4 cell count recovery.

RESULTS

Mean 25(OH)D was significantly higher at 48 weeks (26.3 ng/mL (SD + 14.9); p=0.0003) compared to baseline (19.8 ng/mL (SD +12.1), with fewer individuals having vitamin D deficiency (41.2%) and severe deficiency (11.8%). Both body mass index and baseline CD4 cell count were significant independent covariates associated with 25(OH)D changes over 48 weeks. Baseline vitamin D status did not affect CD4 cell count recovery. However, in a 24-week multivariate analysis, current tobacco use was significantly associated with a decreased odds of CD4 cell count recovery (AOR 0.106, 95% CI 0.018-0.606; p=0.012).

CONCLUSION

Individuals treated with lopinavir/ritonavir monotherapy had significantly higher 25(OH)D after 48 weeks. Current tobacco users had significantly diminished CD4 cell count recovery after starting treatment, warranting further clinical investigation.

A mechanistic model for long-term immunological outcomes in South African HIV-infected children and adults receiving ART

Long-term effects of the growing population of HIV-treated people in Southern Africa on individuals and the public health sector at large are not yet understood. This study proposes a novel ‘ratio’ model that relates CD4+ T-cell counts of HIV-infected individuals to the CD4+ count reference values from healthy populations. We use mixed-effects regression to fit the model to data from 1616 children (median age 4.3 years at ART initiation) and 14,542 adults (median age 36 years at ART initiation). We found that the scaled carrying capacity, maximum CD4+ count relative to an HIV-negative individual of similar age, and baseline scaled CD4+ counts were closer to healthy values in children than in adults. Post-ART initiation, CD4+ growth rate was inversely correlated with baseline CD4+ T-cell counts, and consequently higher in adults than children. Our results highlight the impacts of age on dynamics of the immune system of healthy and HIV-infected individuals.

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains an ongoing global pandemic. There is currently no cure for HIV, but antiretroviral therapies can keep the virus in check and allow individuals with HIV to live longer, healthier lives. These drugs work in two ways. They block the ability of the virus to multiply and they allow numbers of an important type of infection-fighting cell called CD4+ T cells to rebound.

As more patients with HIV survive and transition from one life stage to the next, it is critical to understand how long-term antiretroviral therapies will affect normal age-related changes in their immune systems. The health of an immune system can be evaluated by looking at the number of CD4+ T cells an individual has, though this will vary by age and location. Clinicians use the same metrics to assess the immune health of individuals with HIV, however, as they age, it becomes a challenge to identify if a patient’s immune system recovers normally or insufficiently. Thus, learning more about age-related differences in CD4+ T cells in people living with HIV may help improve their care.

Using data from 1,616 children and 14,542 adults from South Africa, Ujeneza et al. created a simple mathematical model that can compare the immune system of person with HIV with the immune system of a similarly aged healthy individual. The model shows that among individuals with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapies, children have CD4+ T-cell numbers that are closest to the numbers seen in healthy individuals of the same age. This suggests that children may be more able to recover immune system function than adults after beginning treatment. Children also start antiretroviral therapies before their immune system has been severely damaged, while adults tend to start treatment much later when they have fewer CD4+ T cells left.

Ujeneza et al. show that the fewer CD4+ T cells a person has when they start treatment, the faster the number of these cells grows after starting treatment. This suggests that the more damaged the immune system is, the harder it works to recover. This reinforces the need to identify people infected with HIV as soon as possible through testing and to begin treatment promptly. The new model may help clinicians and policy makers develop screening and treatment protocols tailored to the specific needs of children and adults living with HIV.

Regulation of Gut Microbiota on Immune Reconstitution in Patients With Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection of CD4⁺ T cells in the gut plays an insidious role in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pathogenesis. Host immune function is closely related to gut microbiota. Changes in the gut microbiota cause a different immune response. Previous studies revealed that HIV-1 infection caused changes in gut microbiota, which induced immune deficiency. HIV-1 infection results in an abnormal composition and function of the gut microbiota, which may disrupt the intestinal epithelial barrier and microbial translocation, leading to long-term immune activation, including inflammation and metabolic disorders. At the same time, an abnormal gut microbiota also hinders the effect of antiviral therapy and affects the immune reconstruction of patients. However, studies on the impact of the gut microbiota on immune reconstitution in patients with HIV/AIDS are still limited. In this review, we focus on changes in the gut microbiota caused by HIV infection, as well as the impact and regulation of the gut microbiota on immune function and immune reconstitution, while we also discuss the potential impact of probiotics/prebiotics and fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) on immune reconstitution.

Immune recovery in HIV-1 infected patients with sustained viral suppression under long-term antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

There is very little data on long-term immune recovery responses in patients on suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the setting of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Thus, we sought to determine CD4+ T-cell, CD8+ T-cell and CD4/CD8 ratio responses in a cohort of HIV infected individuals on sustained suppressive ART followed up for more than a decade.

METHODS

The cohort comprised adult patients who started ART between 2001 and 2007 and followed for up to 14 years. Trends in median CD4+ T-cells, CD8+ T-cells and CD4/CD8 ratio were reviewed retrospectively. Poisson regression models were used to identify factors associated with achieving normalized T-cell biomarkers. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate the probability of attaining normalized counts while on suppressive ART.

RESULTS

A total of 227 patients with a median duration of follow-up on ART of 12 (IQR: 10.5-13.0) years were included. CD4 cell count increased from baseline median of 138 cells (IQR: 70-202) to 555 cells (IQR: 417-830). CD4 cell increased continuously up until 5 years, after which it plateaued up until 14 years of follow up. Only 69.6% normalized their CD4 cell count within a median of 6.5 (IQR: 3.0-10.5) years. In addition, only 15.9% of the cohort were able to achieve the median reference CD4+ T-cell threshold count in Ethiopians (≈760 cells/μL). CD8+ T-cell counts increased initially until year 1, after which continuous decrease was ascertained. CD4/CD8 ratio trend revealed continuous increase throughout the course of ART, and increased from a median baseline of 0.14 (IQR: 0.09-0.22) to a median of 0.70 (IQR: 0.42-0.95). However, only 12.3% normalized their ratio (≥ 1.0) after a median of 11.5 years. In addition, only 8.8% of the cohort were able to achieve the median reference ratio of healthy Ethiopians.

CONCLUSION

Determination of both CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells, along with CD4/CD8 ratio is highly relevant in long-term follow-up of patients to assess immune recovery. Monitoring ratio levels may serve as a better biomarker risk for disease progression among patients on long-term ART. In addition, the findings emphasize the relevance of initiation of ART at the early stage of HIV-1 infection.

Definition of Immunological Nonresponse to Antiretroviral Therapy: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Terms and criteria to classify people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy who fail to achieve satisfactory CD4 T-cell counts are heterogeneous, and need revision and summarization.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of PubMed original research articles containing a set of predefined terms, published in English between January 2009 and September 2018. The search retrieved initially 1360 studies, of which 103 were eligible. The representative terminology and criteria were extracted and analyzed.

RESULTS

Twenty-two terms and 73 criteria to define the condition were identified. The most frequent term was "immunological nonresponders" and the most frequent criterion was "CD4 T-cell count <350 cells/µL after ≥24 months of virologic suppression." Most criteria use CD4+ T-cell counts as a surrogate, either as an absolute value or as a change after a defined period of time [corrected]. Distinct values and time points were used. Only 9 of the 73 criteria were used by more than one independent research team. Herein we propose 2 criteria that could help to reach a consensus.

CONCLUSIONS

The high disparity in terms and criteria here reported precludes data aggregation and progression of the knowledge on this condition, because it renders impossible to compare data from different studies. This review will foster the discussion of terms and criteria to achieve a consensual definition.

Incomplete immune reconstitution in HIV/AIDS patients on antiretroviral therapy: Challenges of immunological non-responders

The morbidity and mortality of HIV type-1 (HIV-1)-related diseases were dramatically diminished by the grounds of the introduction of potent antiretroviral therapy, which induces persistent suppression of HIV-1 replication and gradual recovery of CD4⁺ T-cell counts. However, ∼10-40% of HIV-1-infected individuals fail to achieve normalization of CD4⁺ T-cell counts despite persistent virological suppression. These patients are referred to as "inadequate immunological responders," "immunodiscordant responders," or "immunological non-responders (INRs)" who show severe immunological dysfunction. Indeed, INRs are at an increased risk of clinical progression to AIDS and non-AIDS events and present higher rates of mortality than HIV-1-infected individuals with adequate immune reconstitution. To date, the underlying mechanism of incomplete immune reconstitution in HIV-1-infected patients has not been fully elucidated. In light of this limitation, it is of substantial practical significance to deeply understand the mechanism of immune reconstitution and design effective individualized treatment strategies. Therefore, in this review, we aim to highlight the mechanism and risk factors of incomplete immune reconstitution and strategies to intervene.

Cumulative viral load as a predictor of CD4+ T-cell response to antiretroviral therapy using Bayesian statistical models

INTRODUCTION

There are Challenges in statistically modelling immune responses to longitudinal HIV viral load exposure as a function of covariates. We define Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo mixed effects models to incorporate priors and examine the effect of different distributional assumptions. We prospectively fit these models to an as-yet-unpublished data from the Tshwane District Hospital HIV treatment clinic in South Africa, to determine if cumulative log viral load, an indicator of long-term viral exposure, is a valid predictor of immune response.

METHODS

Models are defined, to express 'slope', i.e. mean annual increase in CD4 counts, and 'asymptote', i.e. the odds of having a CD4 count ≥500 cells/μL during antiretroviral treatment, as a function of covariates and random-effects. We compare the effect of using informative versus non-informative prior distributions on model parameters. Models with cubic splines or Skew-normal distributions are also compared using the conditional Deviance Information Criterion.

RESULTS

The data of 750 patients are analyzed. Overall, models adjusting for cumulative log viral load provide a significantly better fit than those that do not. An increase in cumulative log viral load is associated with a decrease in CD4 count slope (19.6 cells/μL (95% credible interval: 28.26, 10.93)) and a reduction in the odds of achieving a CD4 counts ≥500 cells/μL (0.42 (95% CI: 0.236, 0.730)) during 5 years of therapy. Using informative priors improves the cumulative log viral load estimate, and a skew-normal distribution for the random-intercept and measurement error results is a better fit compared to using classical Gaussian distributions.

DISCUSSION

We demonstrate in an unpublished South African cohort that cumulative log viral load is a strong and significant predictor of both CD4 count slope and asymptote. We argue that Bayesian methods should be used more frequently for such data, given their flexibility to incorporate prior information and non-Gaussian distributions.

Pneumocystis pneumonia in the twenty-first century: HIV-infected versus HIV-uninfected patients

Introduction: Pneumocystis pneumonia (PcP) has classically been described as a serious complication in patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, the emerging number of conditions associated with immunosuppression has led to its appearance in other patient populations. Areas covered: This article reviews the most recent publications on PcP in the HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected population, focusing on epidemiology, diagnostic, therapy and prevention. The data discussed here were mainly obtained from a non-systematic review using Medline and references from relevant articles including randomized clinical trials, meta-analyses, observational studies and clinical reviews. Expert opinion: The growing incidence of Pneumocystis infection in the HIV-uninfected population suggests the need for new global epidemiological studies in order to identify the true scale of the disease in this population. These data would allow us to improve diagnosis, therapeutic strategies, and clinical management. It is very important that both patients and physicians realize that HIV-uninfected patients are at risk of PcP and that rapid diagnosis and early initiation of treatment are associated with better prognosis. Currently, in-hospital mortality rates are very high: 15% for HIV-infected patients and 50% in some HIV-uninfected patients. Therefore, adequate preventive measures should be implemented to avoid the high mortality rates seen in recent decades.

Higher Mortality Despite Early Antiretroviral Therapy in Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Hepatitis B Virus (HBV)-Coinfected Patients With High HBV Replication

Background

In human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients, hepatitis B virus (HBV) coinfection increases the risk of disease progression. Tenofovir plus emtricitabine/lamivudine (TDF/XTC)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART), which suppresses HIV and HBV replication, has the potential for decreasing this risk. Here, we analyze the association between HBV replication, early ART, and mortality in West African adults.

Methods

The Temprano randomized controlled trial assessed the benefits of immediately initiating vs deferring ART in HIV-infected adults with high CD4 counts. After trial completion, participants continued follow-up in a posttrial phase. We analyzed the association between HBV status, immediate ART, and mortality over the entire trial and posttrial follow-up using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

A total of 2052 HIV-infected adults (median baseline CD4 count, 464 cells/μL) were followed for 9394 person-years. At baseline, 1862 (91%) were HIV monoinfected and 190 (9%) HIV/HBV coinfected. Of the latter, 135 (71%) had plasma HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL and 55 (29%) HBV DNA ≥2000 IU/mL. The 60-month probability of death was 11.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4%-24.5%) in coinfected patients with HBV DNA ≥2000 IU/mL; 4.4% (95% CI, 1.9%-10.4%) in coinfected patients with HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL; and 4.2% (95% CI, 3.3%-5.4%) in HIV-monoinfected patients. Adjusting for ART strategy (immediate vs deferred), the hazard ratio of death was 2.74 (95% CI, 1.26-5.97) in coinfected patients with HBV DNA ≥2000 IU/mL and 0.90 (95% CI, .36-2.24) in coinfected patients with HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL compared to HIV-monoinfected patients. There was no interaction between ART strategy and HBV status for mortality.

Conclusions

African HIV/HBV-coinfected adults with high HBV replication remain at heightened risk of mortality in the early ART era. Further studies are needed to assess interventions combined with early ART to decrease mortality in this population.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT00495651.

Aberrant natural killer (NK) cell activation and dysfunction among ART-treated HIV-infected adults in an African cohort

BACKGROUND

We examined NK cell phenotypes and functions after seven years of ART and undetectable viral loads (<50 copies/ml) with restored CD4 T-cell counts (≥500 cells/μl) and age-matched healthy-HIV-uninfected individuals from the same community.

METHODS

Using flow-cytometry, NK cell phenotypes were described using lineage markers (CD56^+/-CD16^+/-). NK cell activation was determined by expression of activation receptors (NKG2D, NKp44 and NKp46) and activation marker CD69. NK cell function was determined by CD107a, granzyme-b, and IFN-gamma production.

RESULTS

CD56 dim and CD56 bright NK cells were lower among ART-treated-HIV-infected than among age-matched-HIV-negative individuals; p = 0.0016 and p = 0.05 respectively. Production of CD107a (P = 0.004) and Granzyme-B (P = 0.005) was lower among ART-treated-HIV-infected relative to the healthy-HIV-uninfected individuals. NKG2D and NKp46 were lower, while CD69 expression was higher among ART-treated-HIV-infected than healthy-HIV-uninfected individuals.

CONCLUSION

NK cell activation and dysfunction persisted despite seven years of suppressive ART with "normalization" of peripheral CD4 counts.

Suboptimal immune recovery during antiretroviral therapy with sustained HIV suppression in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVE

To assess incidence, determinants and clinical consequences of suboptimal immune recovery in HIV-1 infected adults in sub-Saharan Africa with sustained viral suppression on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

DESIGN

Multicountry prospective cohort.

METHODS

Suboptimal immune recovery was defined as proportions of participants who failed to attain clinically relevant CD4+ cell count thresholds (>200, >350 and >500 cells/μl) despite sustained viral suppression on continuous first-line ART. Participants were censored at the earliest of death, loss to follow-up, last viral load less than 50 copies/ml, or database closure. Determinants of immune recovery were assessed using multivariable Cox regression. We estimated incidence rates of AIDS, pulmonary tuberculosis and all-cause mortality for CD4+ strata.

RESULTS

One thousand, five hundred and ninety-two participants were included; 60% were women, median age was 37 years (IQR 31-43) and median pre-ART CD4+ cell count was 147 cells/μl (IQR 76-215). After 6 years of ART, suboptimal immune recovery at CD4+ cell counts less than 200 cells/μl, less than 350  cells/μl, and less than 500 cells/μl occurred in 7, 27, and 57% of participants, respectively. Compared with participants with CD4+ cell count greater than 500 cells/μl, on-ART incidence rates were 12.5, 4.1, 0.9 times higher for AIDS and 16.9, 3.5, and 2.3 times higher for pulmonary tuberculosis in participants with CD4+ cell count less than 200, 200-349, and 350-499 cells/μl, respectively. All-cause mortality was highest in participants with CD4+ cell count less than 200 cells/μl, and comparable across the higher CD4+ strata. Older age, male sex, and lower pre-ART CD4+ cell count were strongly associated with suboptimal immune recovery.

CONCLUSION

These findings warrant close clinical and laboratory monitoring until adequate immune reconstitution is achieved and support early ART initiation before decline of CD4+ cell count.

CD4+ T Cell Recovery and Hepatitis B Virus Coinfection in HIV-Infected Patients from Côte d'Ivoire Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy

Immunorecovery could be attenuated in HIV-hepatitis B virus (HBV) coinfection versus HIV monoinfection during antiretroviral therapy (ART), yet, whether it also occurs in individuals from sub-Saharan Africa without severe comorbidities is unknown. In this study, 808 HIV-infected patients in Côte d'Ivoire initiating continuous ART were included. Six-month CD4+ count trajectories and the proportion reaching CD4+ T cell counts >350/mm³, HIV-RNA <300 copies/mL, still alive and not lost to follow-up within 18 months ("optimal immunorecovery") were compared between coinfected groups. At inclusion, 80 (9.9%) patients were HIV-HBV coinfected, 40 (50.0%) of whom had high HBV-DNA viral load (VL) (>10⁴ copies/mL). Coinfected patients with high HBV-DNA replication initiated ART with significantly lower median CD4+ T cell counts [216/mm³, interquartile range (IQR) = 150-286] compared to coinfection with low HBV-DNA replication (268/mm³, IQR = 178-375) or HIV monoinfection (257/mm³, IQR = 194-329) (p = .003). These patients had significantly faster rates of CD4+ cell count increase from baseline after adjusting for baseline age, World Health Organization stage III/IV, and CD4+ cell counts (p = .04), yet, were not more likely to exhibit optimal immunorecovery (82.5% vs. 80.0% and 77.9%, respectively) (p = .8). In conclusion, change in CD4+ cell counts after ART-initiation was accelerated in coinfected patients with high HBV DNA VLs, but this did not lead to increased rates of optimal immunorecovery.

The evaluation of risk-benefit ratio for gut tissue sampling in HIV cure research

INTRODUCTION

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) does not cure HIV infection due to the persistence of HIV reservoirs in long-lived memory CD4 T cells present in the blood, lymph nodes, intestinal tract, and other tissues. Interest grows in obtaining gut-tissue samples for HIV persistence studies, which poses an ethical challenge to provide study volunteers with adequate information on risks and benefits. Herein we assess the risks and benefits of undergoing gut biopsy procedures for HIV pathogenesis and reservoir studies.

METHODS

A group discussion was organised with physicians and community representatives on performing either a flexible sigmoidoscopy or a colonoscopy. Consensus was reached on conducting colonoscopy in persons ≥50 years. Thirty HIV-infected, ART-treated and nine uninfected participants were recruited. Colonoscopy was performed to collect 30 gut mucosal biopsies. When present, polyps were removed and abnormal mucosal findings were biopsied for pathological analysis. Participants were interviewed on potential discomfort following colonoscopic examination.

RESULTS

The HIV-infected and uninfected groups were comparable in terms of age and gender with more men who have sex with men (MSM) in the former group. Abnormal colonoscopic findings were observed in 43.6% of all the participants and did not differ by HIV status. In total, 24 polyps were removed with a higher mean number of polyps removed in HIV-infected versus uninfected participants (1.7 vs 1.0, P=0.013). The number of polyps marginally correlated with inverted CD4:CD8 ratio. Based on our findings, colonoscopic examination was safe to use for gut biopsy procedures where almost half of the participants had polyps removed.

CONCLUSION

Participation in the study provided colon cancer screening as an ancillary benefit that participants could have received in standard medical care, thus mitigating burdens of invasive procedures. Dialogue between community representatives and clinical researchers can increase participation and advance HIV cure research.

Significant rates of risky sexual behaviours among HIV-infected patients failing first-line ART: A sub-study of the Europe-Africa Research Network for the Evaluation of Second-line Therapy trial

There are limited data on the prevalence of risky sexual behaviours in individuals failing first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) and changes in sexual behaviour after switch to second-line ART. We undertook a sexual behaviour sub-study of Ugandan adults enrolled in the Europe-Africa Research Network for the Evaluation of Second-line Therapy trial. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect sexual behaviour data and, in particular, risky sexual behaviours (defined as additional sexual partners to main sexual partner, inconsistent use of condoms, non-disclosure to sexual partners, and exchange of money for sex). Of the 79 participants enrolled in the sub-study, 62% were female, median age (IQR) was 37 (32-42) years, median CD4 cell count (IQR) was 79 (50-153) cells/µl, and median HIV viral load log was 4.9 copies/ml (IQR: 4.5-5.3) at enrolment. The majority were in long-term stable relationships; 69.6% had a main sexual partner and 87.3% of these had been sexually active in the preceding six months. At enrolment, around 20% reported other sexual partners, but this was higher among men than women (36% versus 6.7 %, p < 0.001). In 50% there was inconsistent condom use with their main sexual partner and a similar proportion with other sexual partners, both at baseline and follow-up. Forty-three per cent of participants had not disclosed their HIV status to their main sexual partner (73% with other sexual partners) at enrolment, which was similar in men and women. Overall, there was no significant change in these sexual behaviours over the 96 weeks following switch to second-line ART, but rate of non-disclosure of HIV status declined significantly (43.6% versus 19.6%, p <0.05). Among persons failing first-line ART, risky sexual behaviours were prevalent, which has implications for potential onward transmission of drug-resistant virus. There is need to intensify sexual risk reduction counselling and promotion of partner testing and disclosure, especially at diagnosis of treatment failure and following switch to second- or third-line ART.

HIV-related pneumococcal disease prevention in adults

INTRODUCTION

HIV-infected persons are particularly susceptible to the development of severe pneumococcal disease, even in the setting of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), due to slow, incomplete recovery of anti-pneumococcal host defenses. This risk is increased by avoidable aspects of lifestyle, particularly smoking, which intensify immunosuppression. Clearly, more effective preventive measures are needed to counter this threat. Areas covered: This is a detailed review of the published literature focusing on currently available strategies for prevention of pneumococcal infection in HIV-infected patients, including cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, cART, pneumococcal vaccination, and smoking cessation strategies. This is preceded by a consideration of the epidemiology, clinical presentation, risk factors, and outcome of pneumococcal disease. Expert commentary: Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis has been shown to reduce morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients, although there is inconsistent data on the preventive efficacy against pneumococcal infections. Some recent studies have documented unchanged incidences of IPD in adult patients in the cART era. With regard to pneumococcal vaccination, routine acceptance of the efficacy of the PCV13/PPV23 sequential administration prime-boost strategy awaits the outcome of clinical trials in those with HIV infection. Smoking cessation, and discontinuation of excessive alcohol consumption and intravenous drug abuse, are priority strategies to prevent severe pneumococcal infection.

Systematic review of statistically-derived models of immunological response in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction

In Sub-Saharan African (SSA) resource limited settings, Cluster of Differentiation 4 (CD4) counts continue to be used for clinical decision making in antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here, HIV-infected people often remain with CD4 counts <350 cells/μL even after 5 years of viral load suppression. Ongoing immunological monitoring is necessary. Due to varying statistical modeling methods comparing immune response to ART across different cohorts is difficult. We systematically review such models and detail the similarities, differences and problems.

Methods

‘Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses’ guidelines were used. Only studies of immune-response after ART initiation from SSA in adults were included. Data was extracted from each study and tabulated. Outcomes were categorized into 3 groups: ‘slope’, ‘survival’, and ‘asymptote’ models. Wordclouds were drawn wherein the frequency of variables occurring in the reviewed models is indicated by their size and color.

Results

69 covariates were identified in the final models of 35 studies. Effect sizes of covariates were not directly quantitatively comparable in view of the combination of differing variables and scale transformation methods across models. Wordclouds enabled the identification of qualitative and semi-quantitative covariate sets for each outcome category. Comparison across categories identified sex, baseline age, baseline log viral load, baseline CD4, ART initiation regimen and ART duration as a minimal consensus set.

Conclusion

Most models were different with respect to covariates included, variable transformations and scales, model assumptions, modelling strategies and reporting methods, even for the same outcomes. To enable comparison across cohorts, statistical models would benefit from the application of more uniform modelling techniques. Historic efforts have produced results that are anecdotal to individual cohorts only. This study was able to define ‘prior’ knowledge in the Bayesian sense. Such information has value for prospective modelling efforts.