Impact of early antiretroviral therapy eligibility on HIV acquisition: household-level evidence from rural South Africa

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on routine HIV care and antiretroviral treatment outcomes in Kenya: A nationally representative analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic adversely disrupted global health service delivery. We aimed to assess impact of the pandemic on same-day HIV diagnosis/ART initiation, six-months non-retention and initial virologic non-suppression (VnS) among individuals starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Kenya.

METHODS

Individual-level longitudinal service delivery data were analysed. Random sampling of individuals aged >15 years starting ART between April 2018 -March 2021 was done. Date of ART initiation was stratified into pre-COVID-19 (April 2018 -March 2019 and April 2019 -March 2020) and COVID-19 (April 2020 -March 2021) periods. Mixed effects generalised linear, survival and logistic regression models were used to determine the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on same-day HIV diagnosis/ART initiation, six-months non-retention and VnS, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 7,046 individuals sampled, 35.5%, 36.0% and 28.4% started ART during April 2018 -March 2019, April 2019 -March 2020 and April 2020 -March 2021, respectively. Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, the COVID-19 period had higher same-day HIV diagnosis/ART initiation (adjusted risk ratio [95% CI]: 1.09 [1.04-1.13], p<0.001) and lower six-months non-retention (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]: 0.66 [0.58-0.74], p<0.001). Of those sampled, 3,296 (46.8%) had a viral load test done at a median 6.2 (IQR, 5.3-7.3) months after ART initiation. Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, there was no significant difference in VnS during the COVID-19 period (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI]: 0.79 [95%% CI: 0.52-1.20], p = 0.264).

CONCLUSIONS

In the short term, the COVID-19 pandemic did not have an adverse impact on HIV care and treatment outcomes in Kenya. Timely, strategic and sustained COVID-19 response may have played a critical role in mitigating adverse effects of the pandemic and point towards maturity, versatility and resilience of the HIV program in Kenya. Continued monitoring to assess long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV care and treatment program in Kenya is warranted.

HIV test-and-treat policy improves clinical outcomes in Zambian adults from Southern Province: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

Background

Globally, most countries have implemented a test-and-treat policy to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with HIV infection. However, the impact of this strategy has not been critically appraised in many settings, including Zambia. We evaluated the retention and clinical outcomes of adults enrolled in antiretroviral therapy (ART) and assessed the impact of the test-and-treat policy.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 6,640 individuals who initiated ART between January 1, 2014 and July 31, 2016 [before test-and-treat cohort (BTT), n = 2,991] and between August 1, 2016 and October 1, 2020 [after test-and-treat cohort (ATT), n = 3,649] in 12 districts of the Southern province. To assess factors associated with retention, we used logistic regression (xtlogit model).

Results

The median age [interquartile range (IQR)] was 34.8 years (28.0, 42.1), and 60.2% (n = 3,995) were women. The overall retention was 83.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 82.6, 84.4], and it was significantly higher among the ATT cohort, 90.6 vs. 74.8%, p < 0.001. The reasons for attrition were higher in the BTT compared to the ATT cohorts: stopped treatment (0.3 vs. 0.1%), transferred out (9.3 vs. 3.2%), lost to follow-up (13.5 vs. 5.9%), and death (1.4 vs. 0.2%). Retention in care was significantly associated with the ATT cohort, increasing age and baseline body mass index (BMI), rural residence, and WHO stage 2, while non-retention was associated with never being married, divorced, and being in WHO stage 3.

Conclusion

The retention rate and attrition factors improved in the ATT compared to the BTT cohorts. Drivers of retention were test-and-treat policy, older age, high BMI, rural residence, marital status, and WHO stage 1. Therefore, there is need for interventions targeting young people, urban residents, non-married people, and those in the symptomatic WHO stages and with low BMI. Our findings highlight improved ART retention after the implementation of the test-and-treat policy.

Uptake and effect of universal test-and-treat on twelve months retention and initial virologic suppression in routine HIV program in Kenya

Early combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), as recommended in WHO's universal test-and-treat (UTT) policy, is associated with improved linkage to care, retention, and virologic suppression in controlled studies. We aimed to describe UTT uptake and effect on twelve-month non-retention and initial virologic non-suppression (VnS) among HIV infected adults starting cART in routine HIV program in Kenya. Individual-level HIV service delivery data from 38 health facilities, each representing 38 of the 47 counties in Kenya were analysed. Adults (>15 years) initiating cART between the second-half of 2015 (2015HY2) and the first-half of 2018 (2018HY1) were followed up for twelve months. UTT was defined based on time from an HIV diagnosis to cART initiation and was categorized as same-day, 1-14 days, 15-90 days, and 91+ days. Non-retention was defined as individuals lost-to-follow-up or reported dead by the end of the follow up period. Initial VnS was defined based on the first available viral load test with >400 copies/ml. Hierarchical mixed-effects survival and generalised linear regression models were used to assess the effect of UTT on non-retention and VnS, respectively. Of 8592 individuals analysed, majority (n = 5864 [68.2%]) were female. Same-day HIV diagnosis and cART initiation increased from 15.3% (2015HY2) to 52.2% (2018HY1). The overall non-retention rate was 2.8 (95% CI: 2.6-2.9) per 100 person-months. When compared to individuals initiated cART 91+ days after a HIV diagnosis, those initiated cART on the same day of a HIV diagnosis had the highest rate of non-retention (same-day vs. 91+ days; aHR, 1.7 [95% CI: 1.5-2.0], p<0.001). Of those included in the analysis, 5986 (69.6%) had a first viral load test done at a median of 6.3 (IQR, 5.6-7.6) months after cART initiation. Of these, 835 (13.9%) had VnS. There was no association between UTT and VnS (same-day vs. 91+ days; aRR, 1.0 [95% CI: 0.9-1.2], p = 0.664). Our findings demonstrate substantial uptake of the UTT policy but poor twelve-month retention and lack of an association with initial VnS from routine HIV settings in Kenya. These findings warrant consideration for multi-pronged program interventions alongside UTT policy for maximum intended benefits in Kenya.

Opportunities and Challenges in HIV Treatment as Prevention Research: Results from the ANRS 12249 Cluster-Randomized Trial and Associated Population Cohort

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The ANRS 12249 treatment as prevention (TasP) trial investigated the impact of a universal test and treat (UTT) approach on reducing HIV incidence in one of the regions of the world most severely affected by the HIV epidemic-KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We summarize key findings from this trial as well as recent findings from controlled studies conducted in the linked population cohort quantifying the long-term effects of expanding ART on directly measured HIV incidence (2004-2017).

RECENT FINDINGS

The ANRS TasP trial did not-and could not-demonstrate a reduction in HIV incidence, because the offer of UTT in the intervention communities did not increase ART coverage and population viral suppression compared to the standard of care in the control communities. Ten controlled studies from the linked population cohort-including several quasi-experimental study designs-exploit heterogeneity in ART exposure to show a consistent and substantial impact of expanding provision of ART and population viral suppression on reduction in HIV incidence at the couple, household, community, and population levels. In this setting, all of the evidence from large, population-based studies (inclusive of the ANRS TasP trial) is remarkably coherent and consistent-i.e., higher ART coverage and population viral suppression were repeatedly associated with clear, measurable decreases in HIV incidence. Thus, the expanded provision of ART has plausibly contributed in a major way toward the dramatic 43% decline in population-level HIV incidence in this typical rural African population. The outcome of the ANRS TasP trial constitutes a powerful null finding with important insights for overcoming implementation challenges in the population delivery of ART. This finding does not imply lack of ART effectiveness in blocking onward transmission of HIV nor its inability to reduce HIV incidence. Rather, it demonstrates that large increases in ART coverage over current levels will require health systems innovations to attract people living with HIV in early stages of the disease to participate in HIV treatment. Such innovations and new approaches are required for the true potential of UTT to be realized.

Perceived Knowledge of HIV-Negative Status Increases Condom Use Among Female Sex Workers in Zambian Transit Towns

Knowledge of HIV status is a necessary pre-condition for most HIV interventions, including treatment as well as biomedical and behavioral prevention interventions. We used data from a female sex worker (FSW) cohort in three Zambian transit towns to understand the effect that knowledge of HIV status has on FSWs' HIV risk-related sexual behaviors with clients. The cohort was formed from an HIV self-testing trial that followed participants for 4 months. Participants completed three rounds of data collection at baseline, 1 month, and 4 months where they reported their perceived knowledge of HIV status, number of clients on an average working night, and consistent condom use with clients. We measured the effect of knowledge of HIV status on participants' sexual behaviors by using linear regression models with individual fixed effects. The majority of the 965 participants tested for HIV at least once during the observation period (96%) and changed their knowledge of HIV status (79%). Knowledge of HIV status did not affect participants' number of clients, but it did affect their consistency of condom use. Compared with unknown HIV status, knowledge of HIV-negative status significantly increased participants' consistent condom use by 8.1% points [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.7–13.4, p = 0.003] and knowledge of HIV-positive status increased participants' consistent condom use by 6.1% points (95% CI: −0.1 to 12.9, p = 0.08); however, this latter effect was not statistically significant. FSWs in Zambia engaged in safer sex with clients when they learned their HIV status. The expansion of HIV testing programs may serve as a behavioral HIV prevention measure among FSWs.

Is knowledge of HIV status associated with sexual behaviours? A fixed effects analysis of a female sex worker cohort in urban Uganda

INTRODUCTION

Female sex workers (FSWs) have strong economic incentives for sexual risk-taking behaviour. We test whether knowledge of HIV status affects such behaviours among FSWs.

METHODS

We used longitudinal data from a FSW cohort in urban Uganda, which was formed as part of an HIV self-testing trial with four months of follow-up. Participants reported perceived knowledge of HIV status, number of clients per average working night, and consistent condom use with clients at baseline, one month, and four months. We measured the association between knowledge of HIV status and FSWs' sexual behaviours using linear panel regressions with individual fixed effects, controlling for study round and calendar time.

RESULTS

Most of the 960 participants tested for HIV during the observation period (95%) and experienced a change in knowledge of HIV status (71%). Knowledge of HIV status did not affect participants' number of clients but did affect their consistent condom use. After controlling for individual fixed effects, study round and calendar month, knowledge of HIV-negative status was associated with a significant increase in consistent condom use by 9.5 percentage points (95% CI 5.2 to 13.5, p < 0.001), while knowledge of HIV-positive status was not associated with a significant change in consistent condom use (2.5 percentage points, 95% CI -8.0 to 3.1, p = 0.38).

CONCLUSIONS

In urban Uganda, FSWs engaged in safer sex with clients when they perceived that they themselves were not living with HIV. Even in communities with very high HIV prevalence, the majority of the population will test HIV-negative. Our results thus imply that expansion of HIV testing programmes may serve as a behavioural HIV prevention measure among FSWs.

Why Everyone (Almost) with HIV Needs to Be on Treatment: A Review of the Critical Data

Since 2014, a consensus of landmark studies has justified starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) regardless of CD4 count. The evidence for immediate and universal ART is strong, clearly showing individual and population-level benefits, and is supported by all major guidelines groups. Altogether, improvements in ART and recognition of its clinical and epidemiologic benefits justify near-universal ART, preferably as soon after the diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) as possible. Case-based discussions provide a framework to explore the evidence behind the current recommendation for ART for all HIV-positive persons and specific scenarios are discussed in which ART initiation may be delayed.

Effect of ART scale-up and female migration intensity on risk of HIV acquisition: results from a population-based cohort in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Despite increased antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, the incidence of HIV infection among women in rural South Africa remains high. While many socio-demographic and behavioral factors have been identified, the effect of female migration intensity on the risk of HIV acquisition before and after ART scale-up has not been evaluated in the country.

METHODS

We followed 13,315 female participants aged 15-49 who were HIV-uninfected at baseline and recorded their migration events between 2004 and 2015. Using a Cox proportional hazard model, we estimated the time to HIV acquisition among the women, adjusting for annual migration intensity (high: ≥2 events/year, moderate = 1 event/year, and low = 0 event/year) before and after ART scale-up in 2010.

RESULTS

1998 (15%) new HIV-infection events were recorded during the observation period. Overall, high migration intensity was associated with an increased HIV acquisition risk among women when compared with low migration intensity (HR = 2.88, 95% CI: 1.56-5.53). Among those with high migration intensity, the risk of HIV acquisition was significantly lower in the post-ART period compared to the pre-ART period, after controlling for key socio-demographic and behavioural covariates (aHR = 0.18, 95% CI 0.04-0.83).

CONCLUSIONS

Women who migrated frequently after ART scale-up had a significantly reduced HIV acquisition risk compared to those before its implementation. While this reduction is encouraging, women who migrate frequently remain at high risk of HIV acquisition. In the era of ART, there remains a critical need for public health interventions to reduce the risk of HIV acquisition in this highly vulnerable population.

Why do people living with HIV not initiate treatment? A systematic review of qualitative evidence from low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Many people living with HIV (PLWH) who are eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART) do not initiate treatment, leading to excess morbidity, mortality, and viral transmission. As countries move to treat all PLWH at diagnosis, it is critical to understand reasons for non-initiation.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of the qualitative literature on reasons for ART non-initiation in low- and middle-income countries. We screened 1376 titles, 680 abstracts, and 154 full-text reports of English-language qualitative studies published January 2000-April 2017; 20 met criteria for inclusion. Our analysis involved three steps. First, we used a "thematic synthesis" approach, identifying supply-side (facility) and demand-side (patient) factors commonly cited across different studies and organizing these factors into themes. Second, we conducted a theoretical mapping exercise, developing an explanatory model for patients' decision-making process to start (or not to start) ART, based on inductive analysis of evidence reviewed. Third, we used this explanatory model to identify opportunities to intervene to increase ART uptake.

RESULTS

Demand-side factors implicated in decisions not to start ART included feeling healthy, low social support, gender norms, HIV stigma, and difficulties translating intentions into actions. Supply-side factors included high care-seeking costs, concerns about confidentiality, low-quality health services, recommended lifestyle changes, and incomplete knowledge of treatment benefits. Developing an explanatory model, which we labeled the Transdisciplinary Model of Health Decision-Making, we posited that contextual factors determine the costs and benefits of ART; patients perceive this context (through cognitive and emotional appraisals) and form an intention whether or not to start; and these intentions may (or may not) be translated into actions. Interventions can target each of these three stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Reasons for not starting ART included consistent themes across studies. Future interventions could: (1) provide information on the large health and prevention benefits of ART and the low side effects of current regimens; (2) reduce stigma at the patient and community levels and increase confidentiality where stigma persists; (3) remove lifestyle requirements and support patients in integrating ART into their lives; and (4) alleviate economic burdens of ART. Interventions addressing reasons for non-initiation will be critical to the success of HIV "treat all" strategies.

Regression Discontinuity and Randomized Controlled Trial Estimates: An Application to The Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trials

PURPOSE

We compare results from regression discontinuity (RD) analysis to primary results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) utilizing data from two contemporaneous RCTs for treatment of fungal corneal ulcers.

METHODS

Patients were enrolled in the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trials I and II (MUTT I & MUTT II) based on baseline visual acuity: patients with acuity ≤ 20/400 (logMAR 1.3) enrolled in MUTT I, and >20/400 in MUTT II. MUTT I investigated the effect of topical natamycin versus voriconazole on best spectacle-corrected visual acuity. MUTT II investigated the effect of topical voriconazole plus placebo versus topical voriconazole plus oral voriconazole. We compared the RD estimate (natamycin arm of MUTT I [N = 162] versus placebo arm of MUTT II [N = 54]) to the RCT estimate from MUTT I (topical natamycin [N = 162] versus topical voriconazole [N = 161]).

RESULTS

In the RD, patients receiving natamycin had mean improvement of 4-lines of visual acuity at 3 months (logMAR -0.39, 95% CI: -0.61, -0.17) compared to topical voriconazole plus placebo, and 2-lines in the RCT (logMAR -0.18, 95% CI: -0.30, -0.05) compared to topical voriconazole.

CONCLUSIONS

The RD and RCT estimates were similar, although the RD design overestimated effects compared to the RCT.

Do HIV treatment eligibility expansions crowd out the sickest? Evidence from rural South Africa

Objective

The 2015 WHO recommendation to initiate all HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at diagnosis could potentially overextend health systems and crowd out sicker patients, mitigating the policy's impact. We evaluate whether South Africa's prior eligibility expansion from CD4 ≤ 200 to CD4 ≤ 350 cells/μl reduced ART uptake in the sickest patients.

Methods

Using data on all patients presenting to the Hlabisa HIV Treatment and Care Programme in KwaZulu‐Natal from April 2010 to June 2012 (n = 13 809), we assessed the impact of the August 2011 eligibility expansion on the number of patients seeking care, number initiating ART and time from HIV diagnosis to ART initiation among patients always eligible (CD4 0–200), newly eligible (CD4 201–350) and not yet eligible by CD4 count (>350). We used interrupted time series methods to control for long‐run trends and isolate the effect of the policy.

Results

Expanding ART eligibility led to an increased number of patients initiating ART per month [+95.5; 95% CI (−1.3; 192.3)]. Newly eligible patients (CD4 201–350) initiated treatment 47% faster than before (95% CI 19%; 82%), while the sickest patients (CD4 ≤ 200) saw no decline in the monthly number of patients initiating treatment or the rate of treatment uptake.

Conclusion

The Hlabisa programme successfully extended ART to patients with CD4 ≤ 350 cells/μl, while ensuring that the sickest patients did not experience delays in ART initiation. Treatment programmes must be vigilant to maintain quality of care for the sickest as countries move to treat all patients irrespective of CD4 count.