A Multi-State Model Examining Patterns of Transitioning Among States of Engagement in Care in HIV-Positive Individuals Initiating Combination Antiretroviral Therapy

Associations of CD4 Cell Count Measures With Infection-Related and Infection-Unrelated Cancer Risk Among People With HIV

BACKGROUND

People with HIV are at higher risk of infection-related cancers than the general population, which could be due, in part, to immune dysfunction. Our objective was to examine associations between 4 CD4 count measures as indicators of immune function and infection-related and infection-unrelated cancer risk.

SETTING

We conducted a cohort study of adults with HIV who were diagnosed with cancer in Ontario, Canada. Incident cancers were identified from January 1, 1997 to December 31, 2020.

METHODS

We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for the associations between CD4 measures (baseline CD4, nadir CD4, time-updated CD4, time-updated CD4:CD8) and cancer incidence rates using competing risk analyses, adjusted for socio-demographic factors, history of hepatitis B or C infection, baseline viral load, smoking, and alcohol use.

RESULTS

Among 4771 people with HIV, contributing 59,111 person-years of observation, a total of 549 cancers were observed. Low baseline CD4 (<200 cells/µL) (aHR 2.08 [95% CI: 1.38 to 3.13], nadir (<200 cells/µL) (aHR 2.01 [95% CI: 1.49 to 2.71]), low time-updated CD4 (aHR 3.52 [95% CI: 2.36 to 5.24]) and time-updated CD4:CD8 ratio (<0.4) (aHR 2.02 [95% CI: 1.08 to 3.79]) were associated with an increased rate of infection-related cancer. No associations were observed for infection-unrelated cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Low CD4 counts and indices were associated with increased rates of infection-related cancers among people with HIV, irrespective of the CD4 measure used. Early diagnosis and linkage to care and high antiretroviral therapy uptake may lead to improved immune function and could add to cancer prevention strategies such as screening and vaccine uptake.

Frequent Disengagement and Subsequent Mortality Among People With HIV and Hepatitis C in Canada: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

The cascade of care, commonly used to assess HIV and hepatitis C (HCV) health service delivery, has limitations in capturing the complexity of individuals' engagement patterns. This study examines the dynamic nature of engagement and mortality trajectories among people with HIV and HCV.

Methods

We used data from the Canadian HIV-HCV Co-Infection Cohort, which prospectively follows 2098 participants from 18 centers biannually. Markov multistate models were used to evaluate sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with transitioning between the following states: (1) lost-to-follow-up (LTFU), defined as no visit for 18 months; (2) reengaged (reentry into cohort after being LTFU); (3) withdrawn from the study (ie, moved); (4) death; otherwise remained (5) engaged-in-care.

Results

A total of 1809 participants met the eligibility criteria and contributed 12 591 person-years from 2003 to 2022. LTFU was common, with 46% experiencing at least 1 episode, of whom only 57% reengaged. One in 5 (n = 383) participants died during the study. Participants who transitioned to LTFU were twice as likely to die as those who were consistently engaged. Factors associated with transitioning to LTFU included detectable HCV RNA (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR], 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.67), evidence of HCV treatment but no sustained virologic response result (aHR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.56-2.53), and recent incarceration (aHR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.58-2.40). Being Indigenous was a significant predictor of death across all engagement trajectories.

Interpretation

Disengagement from clinical care was common and resulted in higher death rates. People LTFU were more likely to require HCV treatment highlighting a priority population for elimination strategies.

Statistical methods applied for the assessment of the HIV cascade and continuum of care: a systematic scoping review

OBJECTIVES

This scoping review aims to identify and synthesise existing statistical methods used to assess the progress of HIV treatment programmes in terms of the HIV cascade and continuum of care among people living with HIV (PLHIV).

DESIGN

Systematic scoping review.

DATA SOURCES

Published articles were retrieved from PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) Complete and Excerpta Medica dataBASE (EMBASE) databases between April and July 2022. We also strategically search using the Google Scholar search engine and reference lists of published articles.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

This scoping review included original English articles that estimated and described the HIV cascade and continuum of care progress in PLHIV. The review considered quantitative articles that evaluated either HIV care cascade progress in terms of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS targets or the dynamics of engagement in HIV care.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

The first author and the librarian developed database search queries and screened the retrieved titles and abstracts. Two independent reviewers and the first author extracted data using a standardised data extraction tool. The data analysis was descriptive and the findings are presented in tables and visuals.

RESULTS

This review included 300 articles. Cross-sectional study design methods were the most commonly used to assess the HIV care cascade (n=279, 93%). In cross-sectional and longitudinal studies, the majority used proportions to describe individuals at each cascade stage (276/279 (99%) and 20/21 (95%), respectively). In longitudinal studies, the time spent in cascade stages, transition probabilities and cumulative incidence functions was estimated. The logistic regression model was common in both cross-sectional (101/279, 36%) and longitudinal studies (7/21, 33%). Of the 21 articles that used a longitudinal design, six articles used multistate models, which included non-parametric, parametric, continuous-time, time-homogeneous and discrete-time multistate Markov models.

CONCLUSIONS

Most literature on the HIV cascade and continuum of care arises from cross-sectional studies. The use of longitudinal study design methods in the HIV cascade is growing because such methods can provide additional information about transition dynamics along the cascade. Therefore, a methodological guide for applying different types of longitudinal design methods to the HIV continuum of care assessments is warranted.

Trends in infection-related and infection-unrelated cancer incidence among people with and without HIV infection in Ontario, Canada, 1996-2020: a population-based matched cohort study using health administrative data

BACKGROUND

People with HIV infection are at higher risk for certain cancers than the general population. We compared trends in infection-related and infection-unrelated cancers among people with and without HIV infection.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective population-based matched cohort study of adults with and without HIV infection using linked health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada. Participants were matched on birth year, sex, census division (rurality), neighbourhood income quintile and region of birth. We followed participants from cohort entry until the earliest of date of cancer diagnosis, date of death, Nov. 1, 2020, or date of loss to follow-up. Incident cancers identified from Jan. 1, 1996, to Nov. 1, 2020, were categorized as infection-related or-unrelated. We examined calendar periods 1996-2003, 2004-2011 and 2012-2020, corresponding to the early combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), established cART and contemporary cART eras, respectively. We used competing risk analyses to examine trends in cumulative incidence by calendar period, age and sex, and cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

We matched 20 304 people with HIV infection to 20 304 people without HIV infection. A total of 2437 cancers were diagnosed, 1534 (62.9%) among infected people and 903 (37.0%) among uninfected people. The risk of infection-related cancer by age 65 years for people with HIV infection decreased from 19.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.6%-22.3%) in 1996-2011 to 10.0% (95% CI 7.9%-12.1%) in 2012-2020. Compared to uninfected people, those with HIV infection had similar HRs of infection-unrelated cancer but increased rates of infection-related cancer, particularly among younger age groups (25.1 [95% CI 13.2-47.4] v. 1.9 [95% CI 1.0-3.7] for age 18-39 yr v. ≥ 70 yr); these trends were consistent when examined by sex.Interpretation: We observed significantly higher rates of infection-related, but not infection-unrelated, cancer among people with HIV infection than among uninfected people. The elevated rate of infection-related cancer in 2012-2020 highlights the importance of early and sustained antiretroviral therapy along with cancer screening and prevention measures.

Precarious Housing Associated with Unsuppressed Viral load, sub-optimal Access to HIV Treatment and Unmet Health care Needs, Among Women Living with HIV in Metro Vancouver, Canada

We investigated associations between (1) housing status (four categories measuring housing stability) and outcomes along the HIV care continuum (not currently on antiretroviral therapy [ART]; sub-optimal ART adherence [< 95% in the last 3-4 weeks]; unsuppressed viral load [> 200 copies/ml], median CD4 < 200 in the last six months), and (2) housing status and unmet primary, dental and mental health care needs in the last six months among WLWH. Housing status was defined according to the Canadian Definition of Homelessness and had four categories: unsheltered (i.e., living in ≥ 1 unsheltered location [e.g., street, abandoned buildings]), unstable (i.e., living in ≥ 1 unstable location [e.g., shelter, couch surfing]), supportive housing (i.e., only living in supportive housing), and stable housing (i.e., only living in one's own housing; reference). At baseline, in the last six months, 47.3% of participants reported unstable housing, followed by 24.4% unsheltered housing, 16.4% stable housing, and 11.9% supportive housing. Overall, 19.1% of the full sample (N = 336, 2010-2019) reported not currently on ART; among participants on ART, 28.0% reported sub-optimal ART adherence. Overall, 32.1% had recent unsuppressed viral load. Among a subsample (n = 318, 2014-2019), 15.7% reported unmet primary care needs, 26.1% unmet dental care needs, and 16.4% unmet mental health care needs. In adjusted models, being unsheltered (vs. stable housing) was associated with not currently on ART, unsuppressed viral load, and unmet primary and dental care needs. Housing and health services need to be developed with and for WLWH to address structural inequities and fulfill basic rights to housing and health.

Examining annual transitions in healthcare spending among U.S. medicare beneficiaries using multistate Markov models: Analysis of medicare current beneficiary survey data, 2003-2019

Many studies have examined factors associated with individuals of high or low healthcare spending in a given year. However, few have studied how healthcare spending changes over multiple years and which factors are associated with the changes. In this study, we examined the dynamic patterns of healthcare spending over a three-year period, among a nationally representative cohort of Medicare beneficiaries in the U.S. and identified factors associated with these patterns. We extracted data for 30,729 participants from the national Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS), for the period 2003-2019. Using multistate Markov (MSM) models, we estimated the probabilities of year-to-year transitions in healthcare spending categorized as three states (low (L), medium (M) and high (H)), or to the terminal state, death. The participants, 13,554 (44.1%), 13,715 (44.6%) and 3,460 (11.3%) were in the low, medium and high spending states at baseline, respectively. The majority of participants remained in the same spending category from one year to the next (L-to-L: 76.8%; M-to-M: 71.7%; H-to-H: 56.6 %). Transitions from the low to high spending state were significantly associated with older age (75-84, ≥85 years), residing in a long-term care facility, greater assistance with activities of daily living, enrollment in fee-for-service Medicare, not receiving a flu shot, and presence of specific medical conditions, including cancer, dementia, and heart disease. Using data from a large population-based longitudinal survey, we have demonstrated that MSM modelling is a flexible framework and useful tool for examining changes in healthcare spending over time.

Advanced HIV disease and engagement in care among patients on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: results from a multi-state model

OBJECTIVE

Despite improved access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people with HIV (PWH), HIV continues to contribute considerably to morbidity and mortality. Increasingly, advanced HIV disease (AHD) is found among PWH who are ART-experienced.

DESIGN

Using a multi-state model we examined associations between engagement with care and AHD on ART in South Africa.

METHODS

Using data from IeDEA Southern Africa, we included PWH from South Africa, initiating ART from 2004 to 2017 aged more than 5 years with a CD4+ cell count at ART start and at least one subsequent measure. We defined a gap as no visit for at least 18 months. Five states were defined: 'AHD on ART' (CD4+ cell count <200 cells/μl), 'Clinically Stable on ART' (CD4+ cell count ≥200 or if no CD4+ cell count, viral load <1000 copies/ml), 'Early Gap' (commencing ≤18 months from ART start), 'Late Gap' (commencing >18 months from ART start) and 'Death'.

RESULTS

Among 32 452 PWH, men and those aged 15-25 years were more likely to progress to unfavourable states. Later years of ART start were associated with a lower probability of transitioning from AHD to clinically stable, increasing the risk of death following AHD. In stratified analyses, those starting ART with AHD in later years were more likely to re-engage in care with AHD following a gap and to die following AHD on ART.

CONCLUSION

In more recent years, those with AHD on ART were more likely to die, and AHD at re-engagement in care increased. To further reduce HIV-related mortality, efforts to address the challenges facing these more vulnerable patients are needed.

The burden of cancer among people living with HIV in Ontario, Canada, 1997-2020: a retrospective population-based cohort study using administrative health data

BACKGROUND

With combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) and increased longevity, cancer is a leading cause of morbidity among people with HIV. We characterized trends in cancer burden among people with HIV in Ontario, Canada, between 1997 and 2020.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of adults with HIV using linked administrative health databases from Jan. 1, 1997, to Nov. 1, 2020. We grouped cancers as infection-related AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs), infection-related non-ADCs (NADCs) and infection-unrelated cancers. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates per 100 000 person-years with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using direct standardization, stratified by calendar period and sex. We also calculated limited-duration prevalence.

RESULTS

Among 19 403 adults living with HIV (79% males), 1275 incident cancers were diagnosed. From 1997-2000 to 2016- 2020, we saw a decrease in the incidence of all cancers (1113.9 [95% CI 657.7-1765.6] to 683.5 [95% CI 613.4-759.4] per 100 000 person-years), ADCs (403.1 [95% CI 194.2-739.0] to 103.8 [95% CI 79.2-133.6] per 100 000 person-years) and infection-related NADCs (196.6 [95% CI 37.9-591.9] to 121.9 [95% CI 94.3-154.9] per 100 000 person-years). The incidence of infection-unrelated cancers was stable at 451.0 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 410.3-494.7). The incidence of cancer among females increased over time but was similar to that of males in 2016-2020.

INTERPRETATION

Over a 24-year period, the incidence of cancer decreased overall, largely driven by a considerable decrease in the incidence of ADC, whereas the incidence of infection-unrelated cancer remained unchanged and contributed to the greatest burden of cancer. These findings could reflect combination ART-mediated changes in infectious comorbidity and increased life expectancy; targeted cancer screening and prevention strategies are needed.

Novel Longitudinal Methods for Assessing Retention in Care: a Synthetic Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Retention in care is both dynamic and longitudinal in nature, but current approaches to retention often reduce these complex histories into cross-sectional metrics that obscure the nuanced experiences of patients receiving HIV care. In this review, we discuss contemporary approaches to assessing retention in care that captures its dynamic nature and the methodological and data considerations to do so.

RECENT FINDINGS

Enhancing retention measurements either through patient tracing or "big data" approaches (including probabilistic matching) to link databases from different sources can be used to assess longitudinal retention from the perspective of the patient when they transition in and out of care and access care at different facilities. Novel longitudinal analytic approaches such as multi-state and group-based trajectory analyses are designed specifically for assessing metrics that can change over time such as retention in care. Multi-state analyses capture the transitions individuals make in between different retention states over time and provide a comprehensive depiction of longitudinal population-level outcomes. Group-based trajectory analyses can identify patient subgroups that follow distinctive retention trajectories over time and highlight the heterogeneity of retention patterns across the population. Emerging approaches to longitudinally measure retention in care provide nuanced assessments that reveal unique insights into different care gaps at different time points over an individuals' treatment. These methods help meet the needs of the current scientific agenda for retention and reveal important opportunities for developing more tailored interventions that target the varied care challenges patients may face over the course of lifelong treatment.

Modelling immune deterioration, immune recovery and state-specific duration of HIV-infected women with viral load adjustment: using parametric multistate model

BACKGROUND

CD4 cell and viral load count are highly correlated surrogate markers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression. In modelling the progression of HIV, previous studies mostly dealt with either CD4 cell counts or viral load alone. In this work, both biomarkers are in included one model, in order to study possible factors that affect the intensities of immune deterioration, immune recovery and state-specific duration of HIV-infected women.

METHODS

The data is from an ongoing prospective cohort study conducted among antiretroviral treatment (ART) naïve HIV-infected women in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Participants were enrolled in the acute HIV infection phase, then followed-up during chronic infection up to ART initiation. Full-parametric and semi-parametric Markov models were applied. Furthermore, the effect of the inclusion and exclusion viral load in the model was assessed.

RESULTS

Inclusion of a viral load component improves the efficiency of the model. The analysis results showed that patients who reported a stable sexual partner, having a higher educational level, higher physical health score and having a high mononuclear component score are more likely to spend more time in a good HIV state (particularly normal disease state). Patients with TB co-infection, with anemia, having a high liver abnormality score and patients who reported many sexual partners, had a significant increase in the intensities of immunological deterioration transitions. On the other hand, having high weight, higher education level, higher quality of life score, having high RBC parameters, high granulocyte component scores and high mononuclear component scores, significantly increased the intensities of immunological recovery transitions.

CONCLUSION

Inclusion of both CD4 cell count based disease progression states and viral load, in the time-homogeneous Markov model, assisted in modeling the complete disease progression of HIV/AIDS. Higher quality of life (QoL) domain scores, good clinical characteristics, stable sexual partner and higher educational level were found to be predictive factors for transition and length of stay in sequential adversity of HIV/AIDS.

Trends in HIV care cascade engagement among diagnosed people living with HIV in Ontario, Canada: A retrospective, population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The HIV cascade is an important framework for assessing systems of care, but population-based assessment is lacking for most jurisdictions worldwide. We measured cascade indicators over time in a population-based cohort of diagnosed people living with HIV (PLWH) in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We created a retrospective cohort of diagnosed PLWH using a centralized laboratory database with HIV diagnostic and viral load (VL) test records linked at the individual-level. Individuals enter the cohort with record of a nominal HIV-positive diagnostic test or VL test, and remain unless administratively lost to follow-up (LTFU, >2 consecutive years with no VL test and no VL test in later years). We calculated the annual percent of diagnosed PLWH (cohort individuals not LTFU) between 2000 and 2015 who were in care (≥1 VL test), on ART (as documented on VL test requisition) or virally suppressed (<200 copies/ml). We also calculated time from diagnosis to linkage to care and viral suppression among individuals newly diagnosed with HIV. Analyses were stratified by sex and age. Upper/lower bounds were calculated using alternative indicator definitions.

RESULTS

The number of diagnosed PLWH increased from 8,859 (8,859-11,389) in 2000 to 16,110 (16,110-17,423) in 2015. Over this 16-year period, the percent of diagnosed PLWH who were: in care increased from 81% (63-81%) to 87% (81-87%), on ART increased from 55% (34-60%) to 81% (70-82%) and virally suppressed increased from 41% (23-46%) to 80% (67-81%). Between 2000 and 2014, the percent of newly diagnosed individuals who linked to care within three months of diagnosis or achieved viral suppression within six months of diagnosis increased from 67% to 82% and from 22% to 42%, respectively. Estimates were generally lower for females and younger individuals.

DISCUSSION

HIV cascade indicators among diagnosed PLWH in Ontario improved between 2000 and 2015, but gaps still remain-particularly for younger individuals.

Beyond binary retention in HIV care: predictors of the dynamic processes of patient engagement, disengagement, and re-entry into care in a US clinical cohort

OBJECTIVES

Studies examining engagement in HIV care often capture cross-sectional patient status to estimate retention and identify predictors of attrition, which ignore longitudinal patient care-seeking behaviors. We describe the cyclical nature of (dis)engagement and re-entry into HIV care using the state transition framework.

DESIGN

We represent the dynamic patterns of patient care-retention using five states: engaged in care, missed one, two, three, or more expected visits, and deceased. Then we describe various care-seeking behaviors in terms of transitioning from one state to another (e.g. from disengaged to engaged). This analysis includes 31 009 patients enrolled in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Systems (CNICS) in the United States from 1996 to 2014.

METHOD

Multistate models for longitudinal data were used to identify barriers to retention and subgroups at higher risk of falling out of care.

RESULTS

The initial 2 years following primary engagement in care were a crucial time for improving retention. Patients who had not initiated antiretroviral therapy, with lower CD4 cell counts, higher viral load, or not having an AIDS-defining illness were less likely to be retained in care.

CONCLUSION

Beyond the individual patient characteristics typically used to characterize retention in HIV care, we identified specific periods of time and points in the care continuum associated with elevated risk of transitioning out of care. Our findings can contribute to evidence-based recommendations to enhance long-term retention in CNICS. This approach can also be applied to other cohort data to identify retention strategies tailored to each population.