Shadows Behind Using Simple Risk Models in Selection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients for Liver Transplantation

Incremental value of radiomics-based heterogeneity to the existing risk criteria in predicting recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to evaluate the association between the radiomics-based intratumoral heterogeneity (ITH) and the recurrence risk in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after liver transplantation (LT), and to assess its incremental to the Milan, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), Metro-Ticket 2.0, and Hangzhou criteria.

METHODS

A multicenter cohort of 196 HCC patients were investigated. The endpoint was recurrence-free survival (RFS) after LT. A CT-based radiomics signature (RS) was constructed and assessed in the whole cohort and in the subgroups stratified by the Milan, UCSF, Metro-Ticket 2.0, and Hangzhou criteria. The R-Milan, R-UCSF, R-Metro-Ticket 2.0, and R-Hangzhou nomograms which combined RS and the four existing risk criteria were developed respectively. The incremental value of RS to the four existing risk criteria in RFS prediction was evaluated.

RESULTS

RS was significantly associated with RFS in the training and test cohorts as well as in the subgroups stratified by the existing risk criteria. The four combined nomograms showed better predictive capability than the existing risk criteria did with higher C-indices (R-Milan [training/test] vs. Milan, 0.745/0.765 vs. 0.677; R-USCF vs. USCF, 0.748/0.767 vs. 0.675; R-Metro-Ticket 2.0 vs. Metro-Ticket 2.0, 0.756/0.783 vs. 0.670; R-Hangzhou vs. Hangzhou, 0.751/0.760 vs. 0.691) and higher clinical net benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

The radiomics-based ITH can predict outcomes and provide incremental value to the existing risk criteria in HCC patients after LT. Incorporating radiomics-based ITH in HCC risk criteria may facilitate candidate selection, surveillance, and adjuvant trial design.

KEY POINTS

• Milan, USCF, Metro-Ticket 2.0, and Hangzhou criteria may be insufficient for outcome prediction in HCC after LT. • Radiomics allows for the characterization of tumor heterogeneity. • Radiomics adds incremental value to the existing criteria in outcome prediction.

Systemic analysis identifying PVT1 / DUSP13 axis for microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is an independent detrimental risk factor for tumor recurrence and poor survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Competitive endogenous RNA (ceRNA) networks play a pivotal role in the modulation of carcinogenesis and progression among diverse tumor types. However, whether the ceRNA mechanisms are engaged in promoting the MVI process in patients with HCC remains unknown.

METHODS

A ceRNA regulatory network was constructed based on RNA-seq data of patients with HCC from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. In total, 10 hub genes of the ceRNA network were identified using four algorithms: "MCC," "Degree," "Betweenness," and "Stress." Transcriptional expressions were verified by in situ hybridization using clinical samples. Interactions between ceRNA modules were validated by luciferase reporting assay. Logistic regression analysis, correlation analysis, enrichment analysis, promoter region analysis, methylation analysis, and immune infiltration analysis were performed to further investigate the molecular mechanisms and clinical transformation value.

RESULTS

The ceRNA regulatory network featuring a tumor invasion phenotype consisting of 3 long noncoding RNAs, 3 microRNAs, and 93 mRNAs was constructed using transcriptional data from the TCGA database. Systemic analysis and experimentally validation identified a ceRNA network (PVT1/miR-1258/DUSP13 axis) characterized by lipid regulatory potential, immune properties, and abnormal methylation states in patients with HCC and MVI. Meanwhile, 28 transcriptional factors were identified as potential promotors of PVT1 with 3 transcriptional factors MXD3, ZNF580, and KDM1A promising as therapeutic targets in patients with HCC and MVI. Furthermore, miR-1258 was an independent predictor for MVI in patients with HCC.

CONCLUSION

The PVT1/DUSP13 axis is significantly associated with MVI progression in HCC patients. This study provides new insight into mechanisms related to lipids, immune phenotypes, and abnormal epigenetics in oncology research.

The impact of biological features for a better prediction of posttransplant hepatocellular cancer recurrence

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Morphological criteria (i.e., Milan Criteria) have been considered for a long time to be the best tool for selecting patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation (LT). In the last ten years, a refinement of the selection criteria has been observed, with the introduction of biological tumor characteristics enabling to enlarge the number of potential transplant candidates and to select LT candidates with a lower risk of posttransplant recurrence.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several biological tumor aspects have been explored and validated in international cohorts to expand the ability to predict patients at high risk for recurrence. Alpha-fetoprotein, radiological response to locoregional treatments, and other more recently proposed markers have been principally explored. Moreover, more complex statistical approaches (i.e., deep learning) have been advocated to explore the nonlinear intercorrelations between the investigated features.

SUMMARY

The addition of biological aspects to morphology has improved the ability to discriminate among high- and low-risk patients for recurrence. New prognostic algorithms based on the more sophisticated artificial intelligence approach are further improving the capability to select LT candidates with HCC.

Prognostic role of selection criteria for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are selected for transplantation if they have a low tumour burden and low risk of recurrence. The morphometric Milan criteria have been the cornerstone for patient selection, but dynamic morphological and biological tumour characteristics surfaced as an encouraging tool to refine the selection of patients with HCC and to support the expansion of the Milan criteria. The outcomes of the most prevalent models that select patients with HCC for liver transplantation were analysed in this study, which aimed to identify the selection model that offered the best recurrence-free and overall survival after transplantation.

METHODS

Studies that compared Milan, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), up-to-seven (UPTS), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and MetroTicket 2.0 (MT2) models were included. One-year, 3-year, and 5-year recurrence-free and overall survival rates of patients selected for transplantation using different models were analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 60 850 adult patients with HCC selected for liver transplantation using Milan, UCSF, UPTS, AFP, or MT2 criteria were included. Patients selected for transplantation using the MT2 model had the highest 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival. In addition, patients selected for transplantation using MT2 criteria had the best 1- and 3-year overall survival, whereas patients selected for transplantation using the Milan criteria had the best 5-year overall survival rates.

CONCLUSION

The MT2 model offered the best post-transplant outcomes in patients with HCC, highlighting the importance of considering tumour morphology and biology when selecting patients with HCC for liver transplantation.

Predicting recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation using a novel model that incorporates tumor and donor-related factors

Evidence suggests that liver graft quality impacts on posttransplant recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As of today, selection criteria only use variables related to tumor characteristics. Within the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified patients with HCC who underwent liver transplantation between 2004 and 2016 (development cohort, n = 10 887). Based on tumor recurrence rates, we fitted a competing-risk regression incorporating tumor- and donor-related factors, and we developed a prognostic score. Results were validated both internally and externally in the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry. Total tumor diameter (subhazard ratio [sub-HR] 1.52 [1.28-1.81]), alpha-feto protein (sub-HR 1.27 [1.23-1.32], recipient male gender (sub-HR 1.43 [1.18-1.74]), elevated donor body mass index (sub-HR 1.26 [1.01-1.58]), and shared graft allocation policy (sub-HR 1.20 [1.01-1.43]) were independently associated with tumor recurrence. We next developed the Darlica score (sub-HR 2.72 [2.41-3.08] P < 0.001) that allows identifying risky combinations between a given donor and a given recipient. Results were validated internally (n = 3 629) and externally in the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry (n = 370). The current score is based on variables that are readily available at the time of graft offer. It allows identifying hazardous donor-recipient combinations in terms of risk of tumor recurrence and overall survival.

Potentiality of α-fetoprotein (AFP) and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) in prognosis prediction and immunotherapy response for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

The α-fetoprotein (AFP) and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) have certain diagnostic value, but their potential value in prognosis prediction, especially immunotherapy response prediction, remains unclear in liver cancer. Through the tumor-free survival (TFS) and overall survival (OS) rates analyses of serum AFP and sICAM-1 levels in 87 patients with primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the patients whose AFP and sICAM-1 levels were normal (AFP < 20 μg/L or sICAM-1 < 1000 μg/L) before surgery or recovered to normal after surgery exhibited a lower tumor recurrence rate and better OS than patients with elevated serum levels of the two markers. Combined analysis showed that patients with synchronously elevated levels of AFP and sICAM-1 showed the lowest TFS and OS. In addition, the RNA-seq data and clinical information of The Cancer Genome Atlas Liver Hepatocellular Carcinoma were collected to analyze the predictive values of AFP and ICAM-1 in the diagnosis, prognosis and immunotherapy of HCC. The results indicated that the combined application of the two indicators had higher accuracy in both the diagnosis and prognostic prediction of HCC by receiver operating characteristic curves. AFP and ICAM-1 were significantly correlated with multiple immune cells in HCC samples but not in normal samples. The patients with low expression of the two indicators were most likely to benefit from the immune checkpoint blockade therapy. In conclusion, AFP and ICAM-1 play vital roles in the diagnosis, prognostic prediction, and immunotherapy of HCC, suggesting that they are considered as prognostic predictors in clinical practice.

Liver Transplantation for Extended Criteria Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using Stable Response to Locoregional Therapy and Alpha-Fetoprotein as Selection Criteria

INTRODUCTION

Current practice to only prioritize hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that fulfill the Milan criteria (INMC) is changing, since it causes the exclusion of patients who could benefit from liver transplantation. To select patients outside MC (OUTMC) for transplantation, we implemented extended selection criteria without up-front morphometric restrictions containing surrogate parameters of tumor biology.

METHODS

OUTMC patients were considered without restrictions of morphometrics and received locoregional treatment after interdisciplinary consultation. Our dynamic selection criteria for OUTMC patients required (INMUC): (1) treatment response over (2) at least 6 months and (3) alpha-fetoprotein ≤400 ng/mL over the entire evaluation period. Patients with INMC tumors served as control and internal validation cohort.

RESULTS

31 of 170 liver transplant candidates were OUTMC. Of these, 8 dropped out. The remaining 23 patients met the selection criteria and underwent transplantation. Recurrence-free survival was higher in patients transplanted INMC compared to those OUTMC INMUC (92.2% vs. 70.8%; p = 0.026) after 5 years of follow-up. Overall survival showed no significant difference (p = 0.552). With dynamic selection of transplant candidates, recurrence could also be predicted for the INMC patients as internal validation cohort (c-index: 0.896; CI 0.588-0.981, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Dynamic selection criteria for the stratification of patients with OUTMC HCCs is feasible and allows for excellent long-term results and acceptable tumor recurrence rates comparable to INMC patients.

When to call it off: defining transplant candidacy limits in liver donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is an acceptable treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Traditional transplant criteria aim at best utilization of donor organs with low risk of post transplant recurrence. In LDLT, long term recurrence free survival (RFS) of 50% is considered acceptable. The objective of the current study was to determine preoperative factors associated with high recurrence rates in LDLT.

Methods

Between April 2012 and December 2019, 898 LDLTs were performed at our center. Out of these, 242 were confirmed to have HCC on explant histopathology. We looked at preoperative factors associated with ≤ 50%RFS at 4 years. For survival analysis, Kaplan Meier curves were used and Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of recurrence.

Results

Median AFP was 14.4(0.7–11,326.7) ng/ml. Median tumor size was 2.8(range = 0.1–11) cm and tumor number was 2(range = 1–15). On multivariate analysis, AFP > 600 ng/ml [HR:6, CI: 1.9–18.4, P = 0.002] and microvascular invasion (MVI) [HR:5.8, CI: 2.5–13.4, P <  0.001] were independent predictors of 4 year RFS ≤ 50%. When AFP was > 600 ng/ml, MVI was seen in 88.9% tumors with poor grade and 75% of tumors outside University of California San Francisco criteria. Estimated 4 year RFS was 78% for the entire cohort. When AFP was < 600 ng/ml, 4 year RFS for well-moderate and poor grade tumors was 88 and 73%. With AFP > 600 ng/ml, RFS was 53% and 0 with well-moderate and poor grade tumors respectively (P <  0.001).

Conclusion

Patients with AFP < 600 ng/ml have acceptable outcomes after LDLT. In patients with AFP > 600 ng/ml, a preoperative biopsy to rule out poor differentiation should be considered for patient selection.

Homocysteine: A novel prognostic biomarker in liver transplantation for alpha-fetoprotein- negative hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Precise recipient selection optimizes the prognosis of liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the most commonly used biomarker for diagnosis and prognosis of HCC in the clinical context. As a crucial molecule in methionine cycle, homocysteine (Hcy) level has been proved to be related to HCC progression and metastasis.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to explore the prognostic capacity of pre-transplant serum Hcy level in LT for HCC.

METHODS

This study retrospectively enrolled 161 HCC patients who had underwent LT from donation after cardiac death (DCD) in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University from 2015.01.01 to 2018.09.01. Pre-transplant serum Hcy level was incorporated into statistical analysis together with other clinical parameters and pathological features.

RESULTS

From an overall perspective, significant difference was observed in Hcy level between recurrence (n= 61) and non-recurrence group (n= 100) though subsequent analysis showed unsatisfactory predicting performance. In the whole cohort, multivariate analysis showed that lnAFP (p= 0.010) and Milan criteria (MC, p< 0.001) were independent risk factors of HCC recurrence after LT. MA score based on MC and lnAFP performed well in predicting post-LT tumor recurrence with the AUROC at 0.836 (p< 0.001) and 3-year recurrence-free survival rate at 96.8% (p< 0.001) in the low risk group (n= 69). According to the clinical practice, serum concentration lower than 20 μg/L is considered as normal range of AFP. Elevated pre-transplant serum AFP (> 20 μg/L) predicts high HCC recurrence after LT. We further divided the 161 recipients into AFP- group (n= 77, AFP ⩽ 20 μg/L) and AFP+ group (n= 84, AFP > 20 μg/L). MA score was still well presented in the AFP+ group and the AUROC for tumor recurrence was 0.823 (p< 0.001), whereas the predicting accuracy was reduced in AFP- group (AUROC: 0.754, P< 0.001). After subsequent analysis, we found that elevated pre-transplant Hcy level (> 12.75 μmol/L) predicted increased tumor recurrence risk in AFP- group. The 3-year recurrence-free survival rates were 92.0% and 53.7% (p< 0.001) in low Hcy subgroup (n= 40) and high Hcy subgroup (n= 37) respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that Hcy (p= 0.040) and Milan criteria (p= 0.003) were independent risk factors for post-transplant tumor recurrence in AFP- group. Further combination of Hcy level and Milan criteria identified a subgroup of AFP- recipients with acceptable outcomes even though beyond Milan criteria (3-year recurrence-free survival rate: 77.7%, p< 0.001).

CONCLUSION

As a classic predictor in HCC prognosis, AFP performed well in our study cohort when combined with Milan criteria. Homocysteine was an effective prognostic biomarker in LT for AFP- hepatocellular carcinoma. In recipients exceeding Milan criteria, acceptable post-transplant outcome could be seen in those with low Hcy and AFP level.

Impact of Body Composition on the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Body composition parameters are reported to influence the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver resection, yet data on patients undergoing liver transplantation are scarce. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the amount of abdominal adipose tissue and skeletal muscles on the risk of HCC recurrence after liver transplantation.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study performed on 77 HCC patients after liver transplantation. Subcutaneous fat area (SFA), visceral fat area, psoas muscle area and total skeletal muscle area were assessed on computed tomography on the level of L3 vertebra and divided by square meters of patient height. The primary outcome measure was five-year recurrence-free survival.

RESULTS

Recurrence-free survival in the entire cohort was 95.7%, 90.8%, and 86.5% after one, three, and five years post-transplantation, respectively. SFA was significantly associated with the risk of HCC recurrence (p = 0.013), whereas no significant effects were found for visceral fat and skeletal muscle indices. The optimal cut-off for SFA for prediction of recurrence was 71.5 cm²/m². Patients with SFA < 71.5 cm²/m² and ≥71.5 cm²/m² exhibited five-year recurrence-free survival of 96.0% and 55.4%, respectively (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Excessive amount of subcutaneous adipose tissue is a risk factor for HCC recurrence after liver transplantation and may be considered in patient selection process.

Pre-transplant alpha-fetoprotein is associated with post-transplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence mortality

BACKGROUND

Although liver transplantation may potentially cure hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the risk of HCC recurrence is 8%-20% at five years post-transplant. Pre-transplant alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a predictor of HCC recurrence, but it is unknown if pre-transplant AFP also predicts survival in patients with recurrence.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study using the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database between 2002 and 2016. We identified adult transplant recipients with HCC recurrence after liver transplantation for HCC and used Cox regression to compare patient survival among different maximum pre-transplant AFP levels.

RESULTS

The cohort (N = 1164) was primarily male, white, and with hepatitis C liver disease. The median time to HCC recurrence was 11.6 months (interquartile range 6.1-26.3). In Cox regression analysis, increasing pre-transplant AFP was associated with poorer survival when adjusting for age, pre-transplant model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and time to HCC recurrence. For example, patients with pre-transplant AFP ≥500ng/mL had a 1.6-fold higher risk of death versus those with AFP ≤20ng/mL (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Pre-transplant AFP is independently associated with survival in patients with HCC recurrence. These findings further contextualize the importance of pre-transplant AFP in liver transplantation and may improve prognostication for patients with HCC recurrence.

Extremes of Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The aim of this retrospective observational study was to evaluate outcomes of patients with extremely advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation. A total of 285 HCC patients after liver transplantation were screened for eligibility based on either intrahepatic dissemination (≥10 tumors) or macrovascular invasion. Tumor recurrence was the primary end-point. The study cohort comprised 26 patients. Median recurrence-free survival was 23.2 months with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection (p = 0.038), higher AFP model score (p = 0.001), prolonged graft ischemia (p = 0.004), and younger donor age (p = 0.016) being significant risk factors. Median recurrence-free survival of HBV-negative and HBV-positive patients was 29.8 and 9.3 months, respectively (p = 0.053). In patients with macrovascular invasion, recurrence-free survival at 3 years was 46.3% with no specific predictors. Tumor size (p = 0.044), higher AFP model score (p = 0.019), prolonged graft ischemia (p = 0.016), and younger donor age (p = 0.041) were significant risk factors in patients with intrahepatic dissemination. Superior 3-year outcomes were observed in patients with intrahepatic dissemination and tumor size <3.5 cm (83.3%, p = 0.027) and HBV-negative patients with ischemia <9.7 h (85.7%, p = 0.028). In conclusion, patients with extremely advanced HCCs are remarkably heterogeneous with respect to their profile of tumor recurrence risk. This heterogeneity is largely driven by factors other than standard predictors of post-transplant HCC recurrence.