Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems

Projecting kelp (Ecklonia radiata) gametophyte thermal adaptation and persistence under climate change

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Kelp forests underpin temperate marine ecosystems but are declining due to ocean warming, causing loss of associated ecosystem services. Projections suggest significant future decline but often only consider the persistence of adult sporophytes. Kelps have a biphasic life cycle, and the haploid gametophyte can be more thermally tolerant than the sporophyte. Therefore, projections may be altered when considering the thermal tolerance of gametophytes.

METHODS

We undertook thermal tolerance experiments to quantify the effect of temperature on gametophyte survival, relative growth rate (RGR) and sex ratio for three genetically distinct populations of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes from comparatively high, mid- and low latitudes (43°, 33° and 30°S). We then used these data to project the likely consequences of climate-induced thermal change on gametophyte persistence and performance across its eastern Australian range, using generalized additive and linear models.

KEY RESULTS

All populations were adapted to local temperatures and their thermal maximum was 2-3 °C above current maximum in situ temperatures. The lowest latitude population was most thermally tolerant (~70 % survival up to 27 °C), while survival and RGR decreased beyond 25.5 and 20.5 °C for the mid- and low-latitude populations, respectively. Sex ratios were skewed towards females with increased temperature in the low- and high-latitude populations. Spatially explicit model projections under future ocean warming (2050-centred) revealed a minimal decline in survival (0-30 %) across populations, relative to present-day predictions. RGRs were also projected to decline minimally (0-2 % d-1).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results contrast with projections for the sporophyte stage of E. radiata, which suggest a 257-km range contraction concurrent with loss of the low-latitude population by 2100. Thermal adaptation in E. radiata gametophytes suggests this life stage is likely resilient to future ocean warming and is unlikely to be a bottleneck for the future persistence of kelp.

Season-specific impacts of climate change on canopy-forming seaweed communities

Understory assemblages associated with canopy-forming species such as trees, kelps, and rockweeds should respond strongly to climate stressors due to strong canopy-understory interactions. Climate change can directly and indirectly modify these assemblages, particularly during more stressful seasons and climate scenarios. However, fully understanding the seasonal impacts of different climate conditions on canopy-reliant assemblages is difficult due to a continued emphasis on studying single-species responses to a single future climate scenario during a single season. To examine these emergent effects, we used mesocosm experiments to expose seaweed assemblages associated with the canopy-forming golden rockweed, Silvetia compressa, to elevated temperature and pCO2 conditions reflecting two projected greenhouse emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 [low] & RCP 4.5 [moderate]). Assemblages were grown in the presence and absence of Silvetia, and in two seasons. Relative to ambient conditions, predicted climate scenarios generally suppressed Silvetia biomass and photosynthetic efficiency. However, these effects varied seasonally-both future scenarios reduced Silvetia biomass in summer, but only the moderate scenario did so in winter. These reductions shifted the assemblage, with more extreme shifts occurring in summer. Contrarily, future scenarios did not shift assemblages within Silvetia Absent treatments, suggesting that climate primarily affected assemblages indirectly through changes in Silvetia. Mesocosm experiments were coupled with a field Silvetia removal experiment to simulate the effects of climate-mediated Silvetia loss on natural assemblages. Consistent with the mesocosm experiment, Silvetia loss resulted in season-specific assemblage shifts, with weaker effects observed in winter. Together, our study supports the hypotheses that climate-mediated changes to canopy-forming species can indirectly affect the associated assemblage, and that these effects vary seasonally. Such seasonality is important to consider as it may provide periods of recovery when conditions are less stressful, especially if we can reduce the severity of future climate scenarios.

Climate change and ecosystem shifts in the southwestern United States

Climate change shifts ecosystems, altering their compositions and instigating transitions, making climate change the predominant driver of ecosystem instability. Land management agencies experience these climatic effects on ecosystems they administer yet lack applied information to inform mitigation. We address this gap, explaining ecosystem shifts by building relationships between the historical locations of 22 ecosystems (c. 2000) and abiotic data (1970-2000; bioclimate, terrain) within the southwestern United States using 'ensemble' machine learning models. These relationships identify the conditions required for establishing and maintaining southwestern ecosystems (i.e., ecosystem suitability). We projected these historical relationships to mid (2041-2060) and end-of-century (2081-2100) periods using CMIP6 generation BCC-CSM2-MR and GFDL-ESM4 climate models with SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios. This procedure reveals how ecosystems shift, as suitability typically increases in area (~ 50% (~ 40% SD)), elevation (12-15%) and northing (4-6%) by mid-century. We illustrate where and when ecosystems shift, by mapping suitability predictions temporally and within 52,565 properties (e.g., Federal, State, Tribal). All properties had ≥ 50% changes in suitability for ≥ 1 ecosystem within them, irrespective of size (≥ 16.7 km2). We integrated 9 climate models to quantify predictive uncertainty and exemplify its relevance. Agencies must manage ecosystem shifts transcending jurisdictions. Effective mitigation requires collective action heretofore rarely instituted. Our procedure supplies the climatic context to inform their decisions.

Integrating animal behaviour into research on multiple environmental stressors: a conceptual framework

While a large body of research has focused on the physiological effects of multiple environmental stressors, how behavioural and life-history plasticity mediate multiple-stressor effects remains underexplored. Behavioural plasticity can not only drive organism-level responses to stressors directly but can also mediate physiological responses. Here, we provide a conceptual framework incorporating four fundamental trade-offs that explicitly link animal behaviour to life-history-based pathways for energy allocation, shaping the impact of multiple stressors on fitness. We first address how small-scale behavioural changes can either mediate or drive conflicts between the effects of multiple stressors and alternative physiological responses. We then discuss how animal behaviour gives rise to three additional understudied and interrelated trade-offs: balancing the benefits and risks of obtaining the energy needed to cope with stressors, allocation of energy between life-history traits and stressor responses, and larger-scale escape from stressors in space or time via large-scale movement or dormancy. Finally, we outline how these trade-offs interactively affect fitness and qualitative ecological outcomes resulting from multiple stressors. Our framework suggests that explicitly considering animal behaviour should enrich our mechanistic understanding of stressor effects, help explain extensive context dependence observed in these effects, and highlight promising avenues for future empirical and theoretical research.

Differences in phenology, daily timing of activity, and associations of temperature utilization with survival in three threatened butterflies

We used observational data collected during a mark-recapture study that generated a total of 7503 captures of 6108 unique individuals representing three endangered butterfly species to quantify inter-and intraindividual variation in temperature utilization and examine how activity patterns vary according to season, time of day, and ambient temperature. The Marsh Fritillary, the Apollo, and the Large Blue differed in utilized temperatures and phenology. Their daily activity patterns responded differently to temperature, in part depending on whether they were active in the beginning, middle or end of the season, in part reflecting interindividual variation and intraindividual flexibility, and in part owing to differences in ecology, morphology, and colouration. Activity temperatures varied over the season, and the Apollo and the Large Blue were primarily active at the highest available ambient temperatures (on the warmest days and during the warmest part of the day). The Marsh Fritillary was active early in the season and decreased activity during the highest temperatures. The relationship between individual lifespan and the average temperature was qualitatively different in the three species pointing to species-specific selection. Lifespan increased with an increasing range of utilized temperatures in all species, possibly reflecting that intra-individual flexibility comes with a general survival benefit.

Potential Resilience to Ocean Acidification of Benthic Foraminifers Living in Posidonia oceanica Meadows: The Case of the Shallow Venting Site of Panarea

This research shows the results regarding the response to acidic condition of the sediment and Posidonia foraminiferal assemblages collected around the Panarea Island. The Aeolian Archipelago represents a natural laboratory and a much-promising study site for multidisciplinary marine research (carbon capture and storage, geochemistry of hydrothermal fluids and ocean acidification vs. benthic and pelagic organisms). The variability and the complexity of the interaction of the ecological factors characterizing extreme environments such as shallow hydrothermal vents did not allow us to carry out a real pattern of biota responses in situ, differently from those observed under controlled laboratory conditions. However, the study provides new insights into foraminiferal response to increasing ocean acidification (OA) in terms of biodiversity, faunal density, specific composition of the assemblages and morphological variations of the shells. The study highlights how the foraminiferal response to different pH conditions can change depending on different environmental conditions and microhabitats (sediments, Posidonia leaves and rhizomes). Indeed, mineral sediments were more impacted by acidification, whereas Posidonia microhabitats, thanks to their buffer effect, can offer “refugia” and more mitigated acidic environment. At species level, rosalinids and agglutinated group represent the most abundant taxa showing the most specific resilience and capability to face acidic conditions.

Linking species traits and demography to explain complex temperature responses across levels of organization

Microbial communities regulate ecosystem responses to climate change. However, predicting these responses is challenging because of complex interactions among processes at multiple levels of organization. Organismal traits that determine individual performance and ecological interactions are essential for scaling up environmental responses from individuals to ecosystems. We combine protist microcosm experiments and mathematical models to show that key traits-cell size, shape, and contents-each explain different aspects of species' demographic responses to changes in temperature. These differences in species' temperature responses have complex cascading effects across levels of organization-causing nonlinear shifts in total community respiration rates across temperatures via coordinated changes in community composition, equilibrium densities, and community-mean species mass in experimental protist communities that tightly match theoretical predictions. Our results suggest that traits explain variation in population growth, and together, these two factors scale up to influence community- and ecosystem-level processes across temperatures. Connecting the multilevel microbial processes that ultimately influence climate in this way will help refine predictions about complex ecosystem-climate feedbacks and the pace of climate change itself.

Long-term thermal acclimation drives adaptive physiological adjustments of a marine gastropod to reduce sensitivity to climate change

Ocean warming is predicted to challenge the persistence of a variety of marine organisms, especially when combined with ocean acidification. While temperature affects virtually all physiological processes, the extent to which thermal history mediates the adaptive capacity of marine organisms to climate change has been largely overlooked. Using populations of a marine gastropod (Turbo undulatus) with different thermal histories (cool vs. warm), we compared their physiological adjustments following exposure (8-week) to ocean acidification and warming. Compared to cool-acclimated counterparts, we found that warm-acclimated individuals had a higher thermal threshold (i.e. increased CT_max by 2 °C), which was unaffected by the exposure to ocean acidification and warming. Thermal history also strongly mediated physiological effects, where warm-acclimated individuals adjusted to warming by conserving energy, suggested by lower respiration and ingestion rates, energy budget (i.e. scope for growth) and O:N ratio. After exposure to warming, warm-acclimated individuals had higher metabolic rates and greater energy budget due to boosted ingestion rates, but such compensatory feeding disappeared when combined with ocean acidification. Overall, we suggest that thermal history can be a critical mediator of physiological performance under future climatic conditions. Given the relatively gradual rate of global warming, marine organisms may be better able to adaptively adjust their physiology to future climate than what short-term experiments currently convey.

Novel co-occurrence of functionally redundant consumers induced by range expansion alters community structure

Ongoing climate change is shifting the geographic distributions of some species, potentially imposing rapid changes in local community structure and ecosystem functioning. Besides changes in population-level interspecific interactions, such range shifts may also cause changes in functional structure within the host assemblages, which can result in losses or gains in ecosystem functions. Because consumer-resource dynamics are central to community regulation, functional reorganization driven by introduction of new consumer species can have large consequences on ecosystem functions. Here we experimentally examine the extent to which the recent poleward range expansion of the intertidal grazer limpet Scurria viridula along the coast of Chile has altered the role of the resident congeneric limpet S. zebrina, and whether the net collective impacts, and functional structure, of the entire herbivore guild have been modified by the introduction of this new member. We examined the functional role of Scurria species in controlling ephemeral algal cover, bare rock availability, and species richness and diversity, and compared the effects in the region of range overlap against their respective "native" abutted ranges. Experiments showed depression of per capita effects of the range-expanded species within the region of overlap, suggesting environmental conditions negatively affect individual performance. In contrast, effects of S. zebrina were commonly invariant at its range edge. When comparing single species versus polycultures, effects on bare rock cover were altered by the presence of the other Scurria species, suggesting competition between Scurria species. Importantly, although the magnitude of S. viridula effects at the range overlap was reduced, its addition to the herbivore guild seems to complement and intensify the role of the guild in reducing green algal cover, species richness and increasing bare space provision. Our study thus highlights that range expansion of an herbivore can modify the functional guild structure in the recipient community. It also highlights the complexity of predicting how functional structure may change in the face of natural or human-induced range expansions. There is a need for more field-based examination of regional functional compensation, complementarity, or inhibition before we can construct a conceptual framework to anticipate the consequences of species range expansions.

Cellular Responses of Gelidium floridanum (Gelidiales, Rhodophyta) Tetraspores Under Heat Wave and Copper Pollution

Spore settlement and development are bottlenecks for resilience of habitat-forming macroalgal species. These processes are directly related to temperature, a global stressor protagonist of ocean warming. The toxic effects of local pollutants such as copper may be worsened under a global warming scenario. Therefore, in this paper, we investigated the effects of increased temperature combined with elevated concentrations of copper on the viability, photosynthetic pigments, and ultrastructure of Gelidium floridanum tetraspores. Tetraspores were cultivated on slides with sterilized seawater or seawater enriched with CuCl₂ , and incubated under 24°C or 30°C for 24 h. Tetraspores cultivated with copper 3.0 μM under 30°C had lower viability. Both temperature and copper had a significant effect on phycocyanin and phycoerythrin concentrations. Samples cultivated with copper under 30°C presented a heavily altered cellular structure, with vesicles throughout the cytoplasm, chloroplasts with altered structure and cells with degenerated cytoplasm and cell walls. Our findings show that temperature and copper significantly affect the viability, photosynthetic pigments, and ultrastructure of G. floridanum tetraspores, presenting an additive interaction for the physiology of this seaweed's early stages.

Marine heat wave and multiple stressors tip bull kelp forest to sea urchin barrens

Extreme climatic events have recently impacted marine ecosystems around the world, including foundation species such as corals and kelps. Here, we describe the rapid climate-driven catastrophic shift in 2014 from a previously robust kelp forest to unproductive large scale urchin barrens in northern California. Bull kelp canopy was reduced by >90% along more than 350 km of coastline. Twenty years of kelp ecosystem surveys reveal the timing and magnitude of events, including mass mortalities of sea stars (2013-), intense ocean warming (2014-2017), and sea urchin barrens (2015-). Multiple stressors led to the unprecedented and long-lasting decline of the kelp forest. Kelp deforestation triggered mass (80%) abalone mortality (2017) resulting in the closure in 2018 of the recreational abalone fishery worth an estimated $44 M and the collapse of the north coast commercial red sea urchin fishery (2015-) worth $3 M. Key questions remain such as the relative roles of ocean warming and sea star disease in the massive purple sea urchin population increase. Science and policy will need to partner to better understand drivers, build climate-resilient fisheries and kelp forest recovery strategies in order to restore essential kelp forest ecosystem services.

Applicability of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models across steep environmental gradients

Robust ecological forecasting requires accurate predictions of physiological responses to environmental drivers. Energy budget models facilitate this by mechanistically linking biology to abiotic drivers, but are usually ground-truthed under relatively stable physical conditions, omitting temporal/spatial environmental variability. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is a powerful framework capable of linking individual fitness to environmental drivers and we tested its ability to accommodate variability by examining model predictions across the rocky shore, a steep ecotone characterized by wide fluctuations in temperature and food availability. We parameterized DEB models for co-existing mid/high-shore (Mytilus galloprovincialis) and mid/low-shore (Perna perna) mussels on the south coast of South Africa. First, we assumed permanently submerged conditions, and then incorporated metabolic depression under low tide conditions, using detailed data of tidal cycles, body temperature and variability in food over 12 months at three sites. Models provided good estimates of shell length for both species across the shore, but predictions of gonadosomatic index were consistently lower than observed. Model disagreement could reflect the effects of details of biology and/or difficulties in capturing environmental variability, emphasising the need to incorporate both. Our approach provides guidelines for incorporating environmental variability and long-term change into mechanistic models to improve ecological predictions.

Global warming-induced temperature effects to intertidal tropical and temperate meiobenthic communities

Global climate change and the related temperature rise strongly impact marine life and have long been in the center of scientific attention. This experimental work investigates thermal-stress effects on intertidal meiofauna from tropical and temperate coasts, focusing on community responses. Natural communities were exposed for a month to ambient, elevated constant temperatures and diurnal fluctuating temperature regimes with elevated peak maxima, to mimic realistic future climate conditions. Abundance, biodiversity, community composition and functional diversity were assessed. Differential responses between a tropical and a temperate community were revealed. The tropical nematode assemblage was more tolerant to the elevated constant than to the fluctuating temperature regime, whereas the temperate assemblage was equally affected by both. Shifts in dominance of temperature-tolerant species in elevated constant and fluctuating temperature treatments (due to temperature variations) were observed and explained by a combination of differential tolerances and shifts in species interactions. Overall, global warming-induced temperature was found to alter species dynamics within meiobenthic communities, which may have further implications for the ecosystem.

Predicted impacts of climate warming on aerobic performance and upper thermal tolerance of six tropical freshwater fishes spanning three continents

Equatorial fishes, and the critically important fisheries based on them, are thought to be at-risk from climate warming because the fishes have evolved in a relatively aseasonal environment and possess narrow thermal tolerance windows that are close to upper thermal limits. We assessed survival, growth, aerobic performance and critical thermal maxima (CTmax) following acute and 21 d exposures to temperatures up to 4°C higher than current maxima for six species of freshwater fishes indigenous to tropical countries and of importance for human consumption. All six species showed 1.3-1.7°C increases in CTmax with a 4°C rise in acclimation temperature, values which match up well with fishes from other climatic regions, and five species had survival >87% at all temperatures over the treatment period. Specific growth rates varied among and within each species in response to temperature treatments. For all species, the response of resting metabolic rate (RMR) was consistently more dynamic than for maximum metabolic rate, but in general both acute temperature exposure and thermal acclimation had only modest effects on aerobic scope (AS). However, RMR increased after warm acclimation in 5 of 6 species, suggesting incomplete metabolic compensation. Taken in total, our results show that each species had some ability to perform at temperatures up to 4°C above current maxima, yet also displayed certain areas of concern for their long-term welfare. We therefore suggest caution against the overly broad generalization that all tropical freshwater fish species will face severe challenges from warming temperatures in the coming decades and that future vulnerability assessments should integrate multiple performance metrics as opposed to relying on a single response metric. Given the societal significance of inland fisheries in many parts of the tropics, our results clearly demonstrate the need for more species-specific studies of adaptive capacity to climate change-related challenges.

Irreversible behavioural impairment of fish starts early: Embryonic exposure to ocean acidification

Long-term species responses to ocean acidification depend on their sensitivity during different life stages. We tested for sensitivity of juvenile fish behaviour to ocean acidification by exposing eggs to control and elevated CO₂ levels, and translocating offspring between treatments in a reciprocal design. After 12 weeks of exposure, activity, inactivity and anxiety levels of juveniles from control eggs were similar, whether juveniles had experienced elevated CO₂ conditions or not, and this pattern was consistent over time. However, juveniles raised as eggs under elevated CO₂ showed increased anxiety levels compared to those from control eggs. This response was not reversed when CO₂-exposed juveniles were translocated to control conditions. Our findings highlight the value of evaluating fish sensitivities to global change pollutants across different life stages, and indicate that sensitivity during the often-overlooked egg stage can be critical with long-lasting impairment of behaviours that are coupled to individual fitness and population persistence.

Global and local disturbances interact to modify seagrass palatability

Global change, such as warming and ocean acidification, and local anthropogenic disturbances, such as eutrophication, can have profound impacts on marine organisms. However, we are far from being able to predict the outcome of multiple interacting disturbances on seagrass communities. Herbivores are key in determining plant community structure and the transfer of energy up the food web. Global and local disturbances may alter the ecological role of herbivory by modifying leaf palatability (i.e. leaf traits) and consequently, the feeding patterns of herbivores. This study evaluates the main and interactive effects of factors related to global change (i.e. elevated temperature, lower pH levels and associated ocean acidification) and local disturbance (i.e. eutrophication through ammonium enrichment) on a broad spectrum of leaf traits using the temperate seagrass Cymodocea nodosa, including structural, nutritional, biomechanical and chemical traits. The effect of these traits on the consumption rates of the generalist herbivore Paracentrotus lividus (purple sea urchin) is evaluated. The three disturbances of warming, low pH level and eutrophication, alone and in combination, increased the consumption rate of seagrass by modifying all leaf traits. Leaf nutritional quality, measured as nitrogen content, was positively correlated to consumption rate. In contrast, a negative correlation was found between feeding decisions by sea urchins and structural, biomechanical and chemical leaf traits. In addition, a notable accomplishment of this work is the identification of phenolic compounds not previously reported for C. nodosa. Our results suggest that global and local disturbances may trigger a major shift in the herbivory of seagrass communities, with important implications for the resilience of seagrass ecosystems.

Altered epiphyte community and sea urchin diet in Posidonia oceanica meadows in the vicinity of volcanic CO2 vents

Ocean acidification (OA) predicted for 2100 is expected to shift seagrass epiphyte communities towards the dominance of more tolerant non-calcifying taxa. However, little is known about the indirect effects of such changes on food provision to key seagrass consumers. We found that epiphyte communities of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica in two naturally acidified sites (i.e. north and south sides of a volcanic CO2 vent) and in a control site away from the vent at the Ischia Island (NW Mediterranean Sea) significantly differed in composition and abundance. Such differences involved a higher abundance of non-calcareous crustose brown algae and a decline of calcifying polychaetes in both acidified sites. A lower epiphytic abundance of crustose coralline algae occurred only in the south side of the vents, thus suggesting that OA may alter epiphyte assemblages in different ways due to interaction with local factors such as differential fish herbivory or hydrodynamics. The OA effects on food items (seagrass, epiphytes, and algae) indirectly propagated into food provision to the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus, as reflected by a reduced P. oceanica exploitation (i.e. less seagrass and calcareous epiphytes in the diet) in favour of non-calcareous green algae in both vent sites. In contrast, we detected no difference close and outside the vents neither in the composition of sea urchin diet nor in the total abundance of calcareous versus non-calcareous taxa. More research, under realistic scenarios of predicted pH reduction (i.e. ≤ 0.32 units of pH by 2100), is still necessary to better understand cascading effects of this altered urchin exploitation of food resources under acidified conditions on ecosystem diversity and function.

Warmer temperatures reduce the influence of an important keystone predator

Predator-prey interactions may be strongly influenced by temperature variations in marine ecosystems. Consequently, climate change may alter the importance of predators with repercussions for ecosystem functioning and structure. In North-eastern Pacific kelp forests, the starfish Pycnopodia helianthoides is known to be an important predator of the purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. Here we investigated the influence of water temperature on this predator-prey interaction by: (i) assessing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of both species across a temperature gradient in the northern Channel Islands, California, and (ii) investigating how the feeding rate of P. helianthoides on S. purpuratus is affected by temperature in laboratory tests. On average, at sites where mean annual temperatures were <14 °C, P. helianthoides were common, S. purpuratus was rare and kelp was persistent, whereas where mean annual temperatures exceeded 14 °C, P. helianthoides and kelp were rare and S. purpuratus abundant. Temperature was found to be the primary environmental factor influencing P. helianthoides abundance, and in turn P. helianthoides was the primary determinant of S. purpuratus abundance. In the laboratory, temperatures >16 °C (equivalent to summer temperatures at sites where P. helianthoides were rare) reduced predation rates regardless of predator and prey sizes, although larger sea urchins were consumed only by large starfishes. These results clearly demonstrate that the effect of P. helianthoides on S. purpuratus is strongly mediated by temperature, and that the local abundance and predation rate of P. helianthoides on sea urchins will likely decrease with future warming. A reduction in top-down control on sea urchins, combined with other expected impacts of climate change on kelp, poses significant risks for the persistence of kelp forests in the future.

Future warming and acidification effects on anti-fouling and anti-herbivory traits of the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus (Phaeophyceae)

Human-induced ocean warming and acidification have received increasing attention over the past decade and are considered to have substantial consequences for a broad range of marine species and their interactions. Understanding how these interactions shift in response to climate change is particularly important with regard to foundation species, such as the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus. This macroalga represents the dominant habitat former on coastal rocky substrata of the Baltic Sea, fulfilling functions essential for the entire benthic community. Its ability to withstand extensive fouling and herbivory regulates the associated community and ecosystem dynamics. This study tested the interactive effects of future warming, acidification, and seasonality on the interactions of a marine macroalga with potential foulers and consumers. F. vesiculosus rockweeds were exposed to different combinations of conditions predicted regionally for the year 2100 (+∆5°C, +∆700 μatm CO2 ) using multifactorial long-term experiments in novel outdoor benthic mesocosms ("Benthocosms") over 9-12-week periods in four seasons. Possible shifts in the macroalgal susceptibility to fouling and consumption were tested using consecutive bioassays. Algal susceptibility to fouling and grazing varied substantially among seasons and between treatments. In all seasons, warming predominantly affected anti-fouling and anti-herbivory interactions while acidification had a subtle nonsignificant influence. Interestingly, anti-microfouling activity was highest during winter under warming, while anti-macrofouling and anti-herbivory activities were highest in the summer under warming. These contrasting findings indicate that seasonal changes in anti-fouling and anti-herbivory traits may interact with ocean warming in altering F. vesiculosus community composition in the future.

Hopes and challenges for giant panda conservation under climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China

One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change-induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation.

European sea bass show behavioural resilience to near-future ocean acidification

Ocean acidification (OA)-caused by rising concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2)-is thought to be a major threat to marine ecosystems and has been shown to induce behavioural alterations in fish. Here we show behavioural resilience to near-future OA in a commercially important and migratory marine finfish, the Sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). Sea bass were raised from eggs at 19°C in ambient or near-future OA (1000 µatm pCO2) conditions and n = 270 fish were observed 59-68 days post-hatch using automated tracking from video. Fish reared under ambient conditions, OA conditions, and fish reared in ambient conditions but tested in OA water showed statistically similar movement patterns, and reacted to their environment and interacted with each other in comparable ways. Thus our findings indicate behavioural resilience to near-future OA in juvenile sea bass. Moreover, simulated agent-based models indicate that our analysis methods are sensitive to subtle changes in fish behaviour. It is now important to determine whether the absences of any differences persist under more ecologically relevant circumstances and in contexts which have a more direct bearing on individual fitness.

Ocean acidification: Linking science to management solutions using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study

Coral reefs are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems to ocean acidification. While our understanding of the potential impacts of ocean acidification on coral reef ecosystems is growing, gaps remain that limit our ability to translate scientific knowledge into management action. To guide solution-based research, we review the current knowledge of ocean acidification impacts on coral reefs alongside management needs and priorities. We use the world's largest continuous reef system, Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), as a case study. We integrate scientific knowledge gained from a variety of approaches (e.g., laboratory studies, field observations, and ecosystem modelling) and scales (e.g., cell, organism, ecosystem) that underpin a systems-level understanding of how ocean acidification is likely to impact the GBR and associated goods and services. We then discuss local and regional management options that may be effective to help mitigate the effects of ocean acidification on the GBR, with likely application to other coral reef systems. We develop a research framework for linking solution-based ocean acidification research to practical management options. The framework assists in identifying effective and cost-efficient options for supporting ecosystem resilience. The framework enables on-the-ground OA management to be the focus, while not losing sight of CO2 mitigation as the ultimate solution.

Impacts of temperature on giant panda habitat in the north Minshan Mountains

Understanding the impacts of meteorological factors on giant pandas is necessary for future conservation measures in response to global climate change. We integrated temperature data with three main habitat parameters (elevation, vegetation type, and bamboo species) to evaluate the influence of climate change on giant panda habitat in the northern Minshan Mountains using a habitat assessment model. Our study shows that temperature (relative importance = 25.1%) was the second most important variable influencing giant panda habitat excepting the elevation. There was a significant negative correlation between temperature and panda presence (ρ = −0.133, P < 0.05), and the temperature range preferred by giant pandas within the study area was 18–21°C, followed by 15–17°C and 22–24°C. The overall suitability of giant panda habitats will increase by 2.7%, however, it showed a opposite variation patterns between the eastern and northwestern region of the study area. Suitable and subsuitable habitats in the northwestern region of the study area, which is characterized by higher elevation and latitude, will increase by 18007.8 hm² (9.8% habitat suitability), while the eastern region will suffer a decrease of 9543.5 hm² (7.1% habitat suitability). Our results suggest that increasing areas of suitable giant panda habitat will support future giant panda expansion, and food shortage and insufficient living space will not arise as problems in the northwest Minshan Mountains, which means that giant pandas can adapt to climate change, and therefore may be resilient to climate change. Thus, for the safety and survival of giant pandas in the Baishuijiang Reserve, we propose strengthening the giant panda monitoring program in the west and improving the integrity of habitats to promote population dispersal with adjacent populations in the east.

Ocean acidification through the lens of ecological theory

Ocean acidification, chemical changes to the carbonate system of seawater, is emerging as a key environmental challenge accompanying global warming and other human-induced perturbations. Considerable research seeks to define the scope and character of potential outcomes from this phenomenon, but a crucial impediment persists. Ecological theory, despite its power and utility, has been only peripherally applied to the problem. Here we sketch in broad strokes several areas where fundamental principles of ecology have the capacity to generate insight into ocean acidification's consequences. We focus on conceptual models that, when considered in the context of acidification, yield explicit predictions regarding a spectrum of population- and community-level effects, from narrowing of species ranges and shifts in patterns of demographic connectivity, to modified consumer-resource relationships, to ascendance of weedy taxa and loss of species diversity. Although our coverage represents only a small fraction of the breadth of possible insights achievable from the application of theory, our hope is that this initial foray will spur expanded efforts to blend experiments with theoretical approaches. The result promises to be a deeper and more nuanced understanding of ocean acidification'and the ecological changes it portends.

Interactive effects of ocean acidification and rising sea temperatures alter predation rate and predator selectivity in reef fish communities

Ocean warming and acidification are serious threats to marine life. While each stressor alone has been studied in detail, their combined effects on the outcome of ecological interactions are poorly understood. We measured predation rates and predator selectivity of two closely related species of damselfish exposed to a predatory dottyback. We found temperature and CO2 interacted synergistically on overall predation rate, but antagonistically on predator selectivity. Notably, elevated CO2 or temperature alone reversed predator selectivity, but the interaction between the two stressors cancelled selectivity. Routine metabolic rates of the two prey showed strong species differences in tolerance to CO2 and not temperature, but these differences did not correlate with recorded mortality. This highlights the difficulty of linking species-level physiological tolerance to resulting ecological outcomes. This study is the first to document both synergistic and antagonistic effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on a crucial ecological process like predator-prey dynamics.

A new method to quantify and compare the multiple components of fitness--a study case with kelp niche partition by divergent microstage adaptations to temperature

POINT 1

Management of crops, commercialized or protected species, plagues or life-cycle evolution are subjects requiring comparisons among different demographic strategies. The simpler methods fail in relating changes in vital rates with changes in population viability whereas more complex methods lack accuracy by neglecting interactions among vital rates.

POINT 2

The difference between the fitness (evaluated by the population growth rate λ) of two alternative demographies is decomposed into the contributions of the differences between the pair-wised vital rates and their interactions. This is achieved through a full Taylor expansion (i.e. remainder = 0) of the demographic model. The significance of each term is determined by permutation tests under the null hypothesis that all demographies come from the same pool.

POINT 3

An example is given with periodic demographic matrices of the microscopic haploid phase of two kelp cryptic species observed to partition their niche occupation along the Chilean coast. The method provided clear and synthetic results showing conditional differentiation of reproduction is an important driver for their differences in fitness along the latitudinal temperature gradient. But it also demonstrated that interactions among vital rates cannot be neglected as they compose a significant part of the differences between demographies.

POINT 4

This method allows researchers to access the effects of multiple effective changes in a life-cycle from only two experiments. Evolutionists can determine with confidence the effective causes for changes in fitness whereas population managers can determine best strategies from simpler experimental designs.

Effects of near-future ocean acidification, fishing, and marine protection on a temperate coastal ecosystem

Understanding ecosystem responses to global and local anthropogenic impacts is paramount to predicting future ecosystem states. We used an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate the independent and cumulative effects of fishing, marine protection, and ocean acidification on a coastal ecosystem. To quantify the effects of ocean acidification at the ecosystem level, we used information from the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of ocean acidification. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model for the Wellington south coast, including the Taputeranga Marine Reserve (MR), New Zealand, we predicted ecosystem responses under 4 scenarios: ocean acidification + fishing; ocean acidification + MR (no fishing); no ocean acidification + fishing; no ocean acidification + MR for the year 2050. Fishing had a larger effect on trophic group biomasses and trophic structure than ocean acidification, whereas the effects of ocean acidification were only large in the absence of fishing. Mortality by fishing had large, negative effects on trophic group biomasses. These effects were similar regardless of the presence of ocean acidification. Ocean acidification was predicted to indirectly benefit certain species in the MR scenario. This was because lobster (Jasus edwardsii) only recovered to 58% of the MR biomass in the ocean acidification + MR scenario, a situation that benefited the trophic groups lobsters prey on. Most trophic groups responded antagonistically to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and marine protection (46%; reduced response); however, many groups responded synergistically (33%; amplified response). Conservation and fisheries management strategies need to account for the reduced recovery potential of some exploited species under ocean acidification, nonadditive interactions of multiple factors, and indirect responses of species to ocean acidification caused by declines in calcareous predators.

Multiple stressor interactions influence embryo development rate in the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus

Fertilized eggs of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, are buried in shallow nests above the high tide line, where they are exposed to variations in abiotic conditions during early development. Using a multiple stressors approach we examined whether the rate of embryonic development is affected by exposure to combinations of three factors: temperature (T; 25, 30 and 35°C), salinity (S; 5, 15 and 34 ppt), and ambient O2 (O2; 5%, 13% and 21% O2). Newly fertilized eggs were incubated under 27 fully-factorial stressor combinations for 14 d, then allowed to recover in control conditions (30°C, 34 ppt, 21% O2) for an additional 14 d. Growth rate was measured every 2 d throughout the experiment (n=1296). We found that the effect of isolated stressors (high T, low S or low O2) reduced developmental success by up to 72% (low S), and that stressor combinations showed stronger effects and evidence of complex interactions. For example, low O2 had little effect individually but was lethal in combination with high T, and low T in isolation slightly decreased the rate of development but reduced the negative effects of low S and low O2. Development was delayed under exposure to low O2 but resumed upon return to control conditions after a 10 d lag. These data demonstrate that complex, synergistic interactions among abiotic stressors can substantially alter the development of a coastal invertebrate in ways that may not be predicted from the effects of the stressors in isolation.

Adult acclimation to combined temperature and pH stressors significantly enhances reproductive outcomes compared to short-term exposures

This study examined the effects of long-term culture under altered conditions on the Antarctic sea urchin, Sterechinus neumayeri. Sterechinus neumayeri was cultured under the combined environmental stressors of lowered pH (-0.3 and -0.5 pH units) and increased temperature (+2 °C) for 2 years. This time-scale covered two full reproductive cycles in this species and analyses included studies on both adult metabolism and larval development. Adults took at least 6-8 months to acclimate to the altered conditions, but beyond this, there was no detectable effect of temperature or pH. Animals were spawned after 6 and 17 months exposure to altered conditions, with markedly different outcomes. At 6 months, the percentage hatching and larval survival rates were greatest in the animals kept at 0 °C under current pH conditions, whilst those under lowered pH and +2 °C performed significantly less well. After 17 months, performance was not significantly different across treatments, including controls. However, under the altered conditions urchins produced larger eggs compared with control animals. These data show that under long-term culture adult S. neumayeri appear to acclimate their metabolic and reproductive physiology to the combined stressors of altered pH and increased temperature, with relatively little measureable effect. They also emphasize the importance of long-term studies in evaluating effects of altered pH, particularly in slow developing marine species with long gonad maturation times, as the effects of altered conditions cannot be accurately evaluated unless gonads have fully matured under the new conditions.

Seagrass response to CO₂ contingent on epiphytic algae: indirect effects can overwhelm direct effects

Increased availability of dissolved CO2 in the ocean can enhance the productivity and growth of marine plants such as seagrasses and algae, but realised benefits may be contingent on additional conditions (e.g. light) that modify biotic interactions between these plant groups. The combined effects of future CO2 and differing light on the growth of seagrass and their algal epiphytes were tested by maintaining juvenile seagrasses Amphibolis antarctica under three different CO2 concentrations representing ambient, moderate future and high future forecasts (i.e. 390, 650 vs. 900 µl l(-1)) and two light levels representing low and high PAR (i.e. 43 vs. 167 µmol m(-2) s(-1)). Aboveground and belowground biomass, leaf growth, epiphyte cover, tissue chemistry and photosynthetic parameters of seagrasses were measured. At low light, there was a neutral to positive effect of elevated CO2 on seagrass biomass and growth; at high light, this effect of CO2 switched toward negative, as growth and biomass decreased at the highest CO2 level. These opposing responses to CO2 appeared to be closely linked to the overgrowth of seagrass by filamentous algal epiphytes when high light and CO2 were combined. Importantly, all seagrass plants maintained positive leaf growth throughout the experiment, indicating that growth was inhibited by some experimental conditions but not arrested entirely. Therefore, while greater light or elevated CO2 provided direct physiological benefits for seagrasses, such benefits were likely negated by overgrowth of epiphytic algae when greater light and CO2 were combined. This result demonstrates how indirect ecological effects from epiphytes can modify independent physiological predictions for seagrass associated with global change.

Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at–risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners–in–Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower–risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

Diffusion boundary layers ameliorate the negative effects of ocean acidification on the temperate coralline macroalga Arthrocardia corymbosa

Anthropogenically-modulated reductions in pH, termed ocean acidification, could pose a major threat to the physiological performance, stocks, and biodiversity of calcifiers and may devalue their ecosystem services. Recent debate has focussed on the need to develop approaches to arrest the potential negative impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems dominated by calcareous organisms. In this study, we demonstrate the role of a discrete (i.e. diffusion) boundary layer (DBL), formed at the surface of some calcifying species under slow flows, in buffering them from the corrosive effects of low pH seawater. The coralline macroalga Arthrocardia corymbosa was grown in a multifactorial experiment with two mean pH levels (8.05 ‘ambient’ and 7.65 a worst case ‘ocean acidification’ scenario projected for 2100), each with two levels of seawater flow (fast and slow, i.e. DBL thin or thick). Coralline algae grown under slow flows with thick DBLs (i.e., unstirred with regular replenishment of seawater to their surface) maintained net growth and calcification at pH 7.65 whereas those in higher flows with thin DBLs had net dissolution. Growth under ambient seawater pH (8.05) was not significantly different in thin and thick DBL treatments. No other measured diagnostic (recruit sizes and numbers, photosynthetic metrics, %C, %N, %MgCO₃) responded to the effects of reduced seawater pH. Thus, flow conditions that promote the formation of thick DBLs, may enhance the subsistence of calcifiers by creating localised hydrodynamic conditions where metabolic activity ameliorates the negative impacts of ocean acidification.

Temperature modulates the response of the thermophilous sea urchin Arbacia lixula early life stages to CO2-driven acidification

The increasing abundances of the thermophilous black sea urchin Arbacia lixula in the Mediterranean Sea are attributed to the Western Mediterranean warming. However, few data are available on the potential impact of this warming on A. lixula in combination with other global stressors such as ocean acidification. The aim of this study is to investigate the interactive effects of increased temperature and of decreased pH on fertilization and early development of A. lixula. This was tested using a fully crossed design with four temperatures (20, 24, 26 and 27 °C) and two pH levels (pHNBS 8.2 and 7.9). Temperature and pH had no significant effect on fertilization and larval survival (2d) for temperature <27 °C. At 27 °C, the fertilization success was very low (<1%) and all larvae died within 2d. Both temperature and pH had effects on the developmental dynamics. Temperature appeared to modulate the impact of decreasing pH on the % of larvae reaching the pluteus stage leading to a positive effect (faster growth compared to pH 8.2) of low pH at 20 °C, a neutral effect at 24 °C and a negative effect (slower growth) at 26 °C. These results highlight the importance of considering a range of temperatures covering today and the future environmental variability in any experiment aiming at studying the impact of ocean acidification.

Ocean acidification reverses competition for space as habitats degrade

How marine communities are affected by CO2-induced climate change depends on the ability of species to tolerate or adapt to the new conditions, and how the altered characteristics of species influence the outcomes of key processes, such as competition and predation. Our study examines how near future CO2 levels may affect the interactions between two damselfish species known to compete for space, and the effects of declining habitat quality on these interactions. The two focal species differed in their tolerance to elevated CO2, with the species that is competitively dominant under present day conditions being most affected. Field experiments showed that elevated CO2 (945 μatm) reversed the competitive outcome between the two species with mortal consequences, and this reversal was accentuated in degraded habitats. Understanding these complex interactions will be crucial to predicting the likely composition of future communities under ocean acidification and climate change.

Conserving biodiversity in a human-dominated world: degradation of marine sessile communities within a protected area with conflicting human uses

Conservation research aims at understanding whether present protection schemes are adequate for the maintenance of ecosystems structure and function across time. We evaluated long-term variation in rocky reef communities by comparing sites surveyed in 1993 and again in 2008. This research took place in Tigullio Gulf, an emblematic case study where various conservation measures, including a marine protected area, have been implemented to manage multiple human uses. Contrary to our prediction that protection should have favored ecosystem stability, we found that communities subjected to conservation measures (especially within the marine protected area) exhibited the greatest variation toward architectural complexity loss. Between 1993 and 2008, chronic anthropogenic pressures (especially organic load) that had already altered unprotected sites in 1993 expanded their influence into protected areas. This expansion of human pressure likely explains our observed changes in the benthic communities. Our results suggest that adaptive ecosystem-based management (EBM), that is management taking into account human interactions, informed by continuous monitoring, is needed in order to attempt reversing the current trend towards less architecturally complex communities. Protected areas are not sufficient to stop ecosystem alteration by pressures coming from outside. Monitoring, and consequent management actions, should therefore extend to cover the relevant scales of those pressures.

Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea

An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change.