North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls

A century of coping with environmental and ecological changes via compensatory biomineralization in mussels

Accurate biological models are critical to predict biotic responses to climate change and human-caused disturbances. Current understanding of organismal responses to change stems from studies over relatively short timescales. However, most projections lack long-term observations incorporating the potential for transgenerational phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaption, the keys to resistance. Here, we describe unexpected temporal compensatory responses in biomineralization as a mechanism for resistance to altered environmental conditions and predation impacts in a calcifying foundation species. We evaluated exceptional archival specimens of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis collected regularly between 1904 and 2016 along 15 km of Belgian coastline, along with records of key environmental descriptors and predators. Contrary to global-scale predictions, shell production increased over the last century, highlighting a protective capacity of mussels for qualitative and quantitative trade-offs in biomineralization as compensatory responses to altered environments. We also demonstrated the role of changes in predator communities in stimulating unanticipated biological trends that run contrary to experimental predictive models under future climate scenarios. Analysis of archival records has a key role for anticipating emergent impacts of climate change.

Shifts in trait-based and taxonomic macrofauna community structure along a 27-year time-series in the south-eastern North Sea

Current research revealed distinct changes in ecosystem functions, and thus in ecosystem stability and resilience, caused by changes in community structure and diversity loss. Benthic species play an important role in benthic-pelagic coupling, such as through the remineralization of deposited organic material, and changes to benthic community structure and diversity have associated with changes in ecosystem functioning, ecosystem stability and resilience. However, the long-term variability of traits and functions in benthic communities is largely unknown. By using abundance and bioturbation potential of macrofauna samples, taken along a transect from the German Bight towards the Dogger Bank in May 1990 and annually from 1995 to 2017, we analysed the taxonomic and trait-based macrofauna long-term community variability and diversity. Taxonomic and trait-based diversity remained stable over time, while three different regimes were found, characterised by changes in taxonomic and trait-based community structure. Min/max autocorrelation factor analysis revealed the climatic variables sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), nitrite, and epibenthic abundance as most important environmental drivers for taxonomic and trait-based community changes.

How Do Marine Pelagic Species Respond to Climate Change? Theories and Observations

In this review, we show how climate affects species, communities, and ecosystems, and why many responses from the species to the biome level originate from the interaction between the species' ecological niche and changes in the environmental regime in both space and time. We describe a theory that allows us to understand and predict how marine species react to climate-induced changes in ecological conditions, how communities form and are reconfigured, and so how biodiversity is arranged and may respond to climate change. Our study shows that the responses of species to climate change are therefore intelligible-that is, they have a strong deterministic component and can be predicted.

Toward a phenological mismatch in estuarine pelagic food web?

Alterations of species phenology in response to climate change are now unquestionable. Until now, most studies have reported precocious occurrence of life cycle events as a major phenological response. Desynchronizations of biotic interactions, in particular predator-prey relationships, are however assumed to strongly impact ecosystems' functioning, as formalized by the Match-Mismatch Hypothesis (MMH). Temporal synchronicity between juvenile fish and zooplankton in estuaries is therefore of essential interest since estuaries are major nursery grounds for many commercial fish species. The Gironde estuary (SW France) has suffered significant alterations over the last three decades, including two Abrupt Ecosystem Shifts (AES), and three contrasted intershift periods. The main objective of this study was to depict modifications in fish and zooplankton phenology among inter-shift periods and discuss the potential effects of the resulting mismatches at a community scale. A flexible Bayesian method was used to estimate and compare yearly patterns of species abundance in the estuary among the three pre-defined periods. Results highlighted (1) an earlier peak of zooplankton production and entrance of fish species in the estuary and (2) a decrease in residence time of both groups in the estuary. Such species-specific phenological changes led to changes in temporal overlap between juvenile fish and their zooplanktonic prey. This situation questions the efficiency and potentially the viability of nursery function of the Gironde estuary, with potential implications for coastal marine fisheries of the Bay of Biscay.

A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea

Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this work, we have researched and developed a novel methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for distinguishing which drivers can influence species abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters used or on the underlying mathematical relationships among them. We have validated this methodology applying it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86 biological, hydrographical and climatic time series, ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation, to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011, during which period there was an ecological regime shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights the importance of considering both physical and trophic drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting that when there is availability of both data types, local drivers are more important. The results produced by the GP based procedure are consistent with the literature published to date, and validate the use of GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that this methodology holds promises for the highly non-linear field of ecology.

Colony Foundation in an Oceanic Seabird

Seabirds are colonial vertebrates that despite their great potential for long-range dispersal and colonization are reluctant to establish in novel locations, often recruiting close to their natal colony. The foundation of colonies is therefore a rare event in most seabird species and little is known about the colonization process in this group. The Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea) is a pelagic seabird that has recently established three new colonies in Galicia (NE Atlantic) thus expanding its distribution range 500 km northwards. This study aimed to describe the establishment and early progress of the new Galician populations and to determine the genetic and morphometric characteristics of the individuals participating in these foundation events. Using 10 microsatellite loci, we tested the predictions supported by different seabird colonization models. Possibly three groups of non-breeders, adding up to around 200 birds, started visiting the Galician colonies in the mid 2000’s and some of them eventually laid eggs and reproduced, thus establishing new breeding colonies. The Galician populations showed a high genetic diversity and a frequency of private alleles similar to or even higher than some of the large historical populations. Most individuals were assigned to several Atlantic populations and a few (if any) to Mediterranean colonies. Our study suggests that a large and admixed population is settling in Galicia, in agreement with predictions from island metapopulation models of colonization. Multiple source colonies imply that some birds colonizing Galicia were dispersing from very distant colonies (> 1500 km). Long-distance colonizations undertaken by relatively large and admixed groups of colonizers can help to explain the low levels of genetic structure over vast areas that are characteristic of most oceanic seabird species.

Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.