Exploring the lower thermal limits for development of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum

Warming alters life-history traits and competition in a phage community

Host-parasite interactions are highly susceptible to changes in temperature due to mismatches in species thermal responses. In nature, parasites often exist in communities, and responses to temperature are expected to vary between host-parasite pairs. Temperature change thus has consequences for both host-parasite dynamics and parasite-parasite interactions. Here, we investigate the impact of warming (37°C, 40°C, and 42°C) on parasite life-history traits and competition using the opportunistic bacterial pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa (host) and a panel of three genetically diverse lytic bacteriophages (parasites). We show that phages vary in their responses to temperature. While 37°C and 40°C did not have a major effect on phage infectivity, infection by two phages was restricted at 42°C. This outcome was attributed to disruption of different phage life-history traits including host attachment and replication inside hosts. Furthermore, we show that temperature mediates competition between phages by altering their competitiveness. These results highlight phage trait variation across thermal regimes with the potential to drive community dynamics. Our results have important implications for eukaryotic viromes and the design of phage cocktail therapies.IMPORTANCEMammalian hosts often elevate their body temperatures through fevers to restrict the growth of bacterial infections. However, the extent to which fever temperatures affect the communities of phages with the ability to parasitize those bacteria remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the impact of warming across a fever temperature range (37°C, 40°C, and 42°C) on phage life-history traits and competition using a bacterium (host) and bacteriophage (parasite) system. We show that phages vary in their responses to temperature due to disruption of different phage life-history traits. Furthermore, we show that temperature can alter phage competitiveness and shape phage-phage competition outcomes. These results suggest that fever temperatures have the potential to restrict phage infectivity and drive phage community dynamics. We discuss implications for the role of temperature in shaping host-parasite interactions more widely.

Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum

Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.

Phenotypic adaptation to temperature in the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti

Most models exploring the effects of climate change on mosquito-borne disease ignore thermal adaptation. However, if local adaptation leads to changes in mosquito thermal responses, "one size fits all" models could fail to capture current variation between populations and future adaptive responses to changes in temperature. Here, we assess phenotypic adaptation to temperature in Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. First, to explore whether there is any difference in existing thermal response of mosquitoes between populations, we used a thermal knockdown assay to examine five populations of Ae. aegypti collected from climatically diverse locations in Mexico, together with a long-standing laboratory strain. We identified significant phenotypic variation in thermal tolerance between populations. Next, to explore whether such variation can be generated by differences in temperature, we conducted an experimental passage study by establishing six replicate lines from a single field-derived population of Ae. aegypti from Mexico, maintaining half at 27°C and the other half at 31°C. After 10 generations, we found a significant difference in mosquito performance, with the lines maintained under elevated temperatures showing greater thermal tolerance. Moreover, these differences in thermal tolerance translated to shifts in the thermal performance curves for multiple life-history traits, leading to differences in overall fitness. Together, these novel findings provide compelling evidence that Ae. aegypti populations can and do differ in thermal response, suggesting that simplified thermal performance models might be insufficient for predicting the effects of climate on vector-borne disease transmission.

Effects of Temperature and Nutrition during the Larval Period on Life History Traits in an Invasive Malaria Vector Anopheles stephensi

Anopheles stephensi is an Asian and Middle Eastern malaria vector, and it has recently spread to the African continent. It is needed to measure how the malaria parasite infection in A. stephensi is influenced by environmental factors to predict its expansion in a new environment. Effects of temperature and food conditions during larval periods on larval mortality, larval period, female wing size, egg production, egg size, adult longevity, and malaria infection rate were studied using a laboratory strain. Larval survival and female wing size were generally reduced when reared at higher temperatures and with a low food supply during the larval period. Egg production was not significantly affected by temperature during the larval period. Egg size was generally smaller in females reared at higher temperatures during the larval period. The infection rate of mosquitoes that fed on blood from malaria-infected mice was not affected by rearing temperature or food conditions during the larval period. Higher temperatures may reduce infection. A. stephensi; however, larger individuals can still be infective. We suggest that routinely recording the body size of adults in field surveys is effective in finding productive larval breeding sites and in predicting malaria risk.

Plasmodium vivax: the potential obstacles it presents to malaria elimination and eradication

Initiatives to eradicate malaria have a good impact on P. falciparum malaria worldwide. P. vivax, however, still presents significant difficulties. This is due to its unique biological traits, which, in comparison to P. falciparum, pose serious challenges for malaria elimination approaches. P. vivax's numerous distinctive characteristics and its ability to live for weeks to years in liver cells in its hypnozoite form, which may elude the human immune system and blood-stage therapy and offer protection during mosquito-free seasons. Many malaria patients are not fully treated because of contraindications to primaquine use in pregnant and nursing women and are still vulnerable to P. vivax relapses, although there are medications that could radical cure P. vivax. Additionally, due to CYP2D6's highly variable genetic polymorphism, the pharmacokinetics of primaquine may be impacted. Due to their inability to metabolize PQ, some CYP2D6 polymorphism alleles can cause patients to not respond to treatment. Tafenoquine offers a radical treatment in a single dose that overcomes the potentially serious problem of poor adherence to daily primaquine. Despite this benefit, hemolysis of the early erythrocytes continues in individuals with G6PD deficiency until all susceptible cells have been eliminated. Field techniques such as microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) miss the large number of submicroscopic and/or asymptomatic infections brought on by reticulocyte tropism and the low parasitemia levels that accompany it. Moreover, P. vivax gametocytes grow more quickly and are much more prevalent in the bloodstream. P. vivax populations also have a great deal of genetic variation throughout their genome, which ensures evolutionary fitness and boosts adaptation potential. Furthermore, P. vivax fully develops in the mosquito faster than P. falciparum. These characteristics contribute to parasite reservoirs in the human population and facilitate faster transmission. Overall, no genuine chance of eradication is predicted in the next few years unless new tools for lowering malaria transmission are developed (i.e., malaria elimination and eradication). The challenging characteristics of P. vivax that impede the elimination and eradication of malaria are thus discussed in this article.

Predicting malaria outbreaks from sea surface temperature variability up to 9 months ahead in Limpopo, South Africa, using machine learning

Malaria is the cause of nearly half a million deaths worldwide each year, posing a great socioeconomic burden. Despite recent progress in understanding the influence of climate on malaria infection rates, climatic sources of predictability remain poorly understood and underexploited. Local weather variability alone provides predictive power at short lead times of 1-2 months, too short to adequately plan intervention measures. Here, we show that tropical climatic variability and associated sea surface temperature over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are valuable for predicting malaria in Limpopo, South Africa, up to three seasons ahead. Climatic precursors of malaria outbreaks are first identified via lag-regression analysis of climate data obtained from reanalysis and observational datasets with respect to the monthly malaria case count data provided from 1998-2020 by the Malaria Institute in Tzaneen, South Africa. Out of 11 sea surface temperature sectors analyzed, two regions, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean regions, emerge as the most robust precursors. The predictive value of these precursors is demonstrated by training a suite of machine-learning classification models to predict whether malaria case counts are above or below the median historical levels and assessing their skills in providing early warning predictions of malaria incidence with lead times ranging from 1 month to a year. Through the development of this prediction system, we find that past information about SST over the western Pacific Ocean offers impressive prediction skills (~80% accuracy) for up to three seasons (9 months) ahead. SST variability over the tropical Indian Ocean is also found to provide good skills up to two seasons (6 months) ahead. This outcome represents an extension of the effective prediction lead time by about one to two seasons compared to previous prediction systems that were more computationally costly compared to the machine learning techniques used in the current study. It also demonstrates the value of climatic information and the prediction framework developed herein for the early planning of interventions against malaria outbreaks.

The relationship between rising temperatures and malaria incidence in Hainan, China, from 1984 to 2010: a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

The influence of rising global temperatures on malaria dynamics and distribution remains controversial, especially in central highland regions. We aimed to address this subject by studying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of malaria and the effect of climate change on malaria transmission over 27 years in Hainan, an island province in China.

METHODS

For this longitudinal cohort study, we used a decades-long dataset of malaria incidence reports from Hainan, China, to investigate the pattern of malaria transmission in Hainan relative to temperature and the incidence at increasing altitudes. Climatic data were obtained from the local meteorological stations in Hainan during 1984-2010 and the WorldClim dataset. A temperature-dependent R₀ model and negative binomial generalised linear model were used to decipher the relationship between climate factors and malaria incidence in the tropical region.

FINDINGS

Over the past few decades, the annual peak incidence has appeared earlier in the central highland regions but later in low-altitude regions in Hainan, China. Results from the temperature-dependent model showed that these long-term changes of incidence peak timing are linked to rising temperatures (of about 1·5°C). Further, a 1°C increase corresponds to a change in cases of malaria from -5·6% (95% CI -4·5 to -6·6) to -9·2% (95% CI -7·6 to -10·9) from the northern plain regions to the central highland regions during the rainy season. In the dry season, the change in cases would be 4·6% (95% CI 3·7 to 5·5) to 11·9% (95% CI 9·8 to 14·2) from low-altitude areas to high-altitude areas.

INTERPRETATION

Our study empirically supports the idea that increasing temperatures can generate opposing effects on malaria dynamics for lowland and highland regions. This should be further investigated and incorporated into future modelling, disease burden calculations, and malaria control, with attention for central highland regions under climate change.

FUNDING

Scientific and Technological Innovation 2030: Major Project of New Generation Artificial Intelligence, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing Natural Science Foundation, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by CAST, Research on Key Technologies of Plague Prevention and Control in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science.

Dry Post Wintertime Mass Surveillance Unearths a Huge Burden of P. vivax, and Mixed Infection with P. vivax P. falciparum, a Threat to Malaria Elimination, in Dhalai, Tripura, India

With India aiming to achieve malaria elimination by 2030, several strategies have been put in place. With that aim, mass surveillance is now being conducted in some malaria-endemic pockets. As dry season mass surveillance has been shown to have its importance in targeting the reservoir, a study was undertaken to assess the parasite load by a sensitive molecular method during one of the mass surveys conducted in the dry winter period. It was executed in two malaria-endemic villages of Dhalai District, Tripura, in northeast India, also reported as P. falciparum predominated area. The present study found an enormous burden of Rapid Diagnostic Test negative malaria cases with P. vivax along with P. vivax and P. falciparum mixed infections during the mass surveillance from febrile and afebrile cases in dry winter months (February 2021–March 2021). Of the total 150 samples tested, 72 (48%) were positive and 78 (52%) negative for malaria by PCR. Out of the 72 positives, 6 (8.33%) were P. falciparum, 40 (55.55%) P. vivax, and 26 (36.11%) mixed infections. Out of 78 malaria negative samples, 6 (7.7%) were with symptoms, while among the total malaria positive, 72 cases 7 (9.8%) were with symptoms, and 65 (90.2%) were asymptomatic. Out of 114 samples tested by both microscopy and PCR, 42 samples turned out to be submicroscopic with 4 P. falciparum, 23 P. vivax, and 15 mixed infections. Although all P. vivax submicroscopic infections were asymptomatic, three P. falciparum cases were found to be febrile. Evidence of malaria transmission was also found in the vectors in the winter month. The study ascertained the use of molecular diagnostic techniques in detecting the actual burden of malaria, especially of P. vivax, in mass surveys. As Jhum cultivators in Tripura are at high risk, screening for the malarial reservoirs in pre-Jhum months can help with malaria control and elimination.

Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming

A counterargument to the importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been that regions where an effect of warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal epidemic size since the turn of the new century. This decline has been observed in the densely populated highlands of East Africa at the center of the earlier debate on causes of the pronounced increase in epidemic size from the 1970s to the 1990s. The turnaround of the incidence trend around 2000 is documented here with an extensive temporal record for malaria cases for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in an Ethiopian highland. With statistical analyses and a process-based transmission model, we show that this decline was driven by the transient slowdown in global warming and associated changes in climate variability, especially ENSO. Decadal changes in temperature and concurrent climate variability facilitated rather than opposed the effect of interventions.

Plasmodium vivax Infections Detected in a Large Number of Febrile Duffy-Negative Africans in Dschang, Cameroon

The Duffy blood group is a critical receptor for Plasmodium vivax (Pv) invasion of red blood cells, and consequently, Pv infections were considered rare in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of Duffy-negativity is high. However, recently, Pv infections have been found in Duffy-negative Africans throughout the malaria transmission area of sub-Saharan Africa, raising important questions concerning the molecular composition of these Pv clones and the red blood cell receptors that facilitate their invasion. Here, we describe an unusually high number of Pv infections in febrile Duffy-negative Africans in Dschang, Cameroon (177 of 500 outpatients), as compared with Santchou (two of 400 outpatients) and Kye'-Ossi (two of 101 outpatients), other areas in Cameroon. In the discussion, we speculate on the possible reasons why Dschang might account for the unusually large numbers of Pv infections in Duffy-negative individuals living there.

Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa

Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied. To address this problem we use downscaled daily climate predictions from seven GCMs to run a continental-scale hydrological model for a process-based representation of mosquito breeding habitat availability. A more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges as water is routed through drainage networks and river corridors serve as year-round transmission foci. The estimated hydro-climatically suitable area for stable malaria transmission is smaller than previous models suggest and shows only a very small increase in state-of-the-art future climate scenarios. However, bigger geographical shifts are observed than with most rainfall threshold models and the pattern of that shift is very different when using a hydrological model to estimate surface water availability for vector breeding.

Prior studies mapping climatologically suitable areas for malaria transmission have used relatively simple thresholds for precipitation. Here the authors show that when models incorporate hydrological processes a more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges in Africa and future shifts in suitability are more pronounced.

Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates

Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number R₀-based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized R₀-based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.

The influence of feeding behaviour and temperature on the capacity of mosquitoes to transmit malaria

Insecticide-treated bed nets reduce malaria transmission by limiting contact between mosquito vectors and human hosts when mosquitoes feed during the night. However, malaria vectors can also feed in the early evening and in the morning when people are not protected. Here, we explored how the timing of blood feeding interacts with environmental temperature to influence the capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes to transmit the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. In laboratory experiments, we found no effect of biting time itself on the proportion of mosquitoes that became infectious (vector competence) at constant temperature. However, when mosquitoes were maintained under more realistic fluctuating temperatures, there was a significant increase in competence for mosquitoes feeding in the evening (18:00), and a significant reduction in competence for those feeding in the morning (06:00), relative to those feeding at midnight (00:00). These effects appear to be due to thermal sensitivity of malaria parasites during the initial stages of parasite development within the mosquito, and the fact that mosquitoes feeding in the evening experience cooling temperatures during the night, whereas mosquitoes feeding in the morning quickly experience warming temperatures that are inhibitory to parasite establishment. A transmission dynamics model illustrates that such differences in competence could have important implications for malaria prevalence, the extent of transmission that persists in the presence of bed nets, and the epidemiological impact of behavioural resistance. These results indicate that the interaction of temperature and feeding behaviour could be a major ecological determinant of the vectorial capacity of malaria mosquitoes.

Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.