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Reid MJA, Arinaminpathy N, Bloom A, Bloom BR, Boehme C, Chaisson R, Chin DP, Churchyard G, Cox H, Ditiu L, Dybul M, Farrar J, Fauci AS, Fekadu E, Fujiwara PI, Hallett TB, Hanson CL, Harrington M, Herbert N, Hopewell PC, Ikeda C, Jamison DT, Khan AJ, Koek I, Krishnan N, Motsoaledi A, Pai M, Raviglione MC, Sharman A, Small PM, Swaminathan S, Temesgen Z, Vassall A, Venkatesan N, van Weezenbeek K, Yamey G, Agins BD, Alexandru S, Andrews JR, Beyeler N, Bivol S, Brigden G, Cattamanchi A, Cazabon D, Crudu V, Daftary A, Dewan P, Doepel LK, Eisinger RW, Fan V, Fewer S, Furin J, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Gomez GB, Graham SM, Gupta D, Kamene M, Khaparde S, Mailu EW, Masini EO, McHugh L, Mitchell E, Moon S, Osberg M, Pande T, Prince L, Rade K, Rao R, Remme M, Seddon JA, Selwyn C, Shete P, Sachdeva KS, Stallworthy G, Vesga JF, Vilc V, Goosby EP. Building a tuberculosis-free world: The Lancet Commission on tuberculosis. Lancet 2019; 393:1331-1384. [PMID: 30904263 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(19)30024-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 216] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2018] [Revised: 12/20/2018] [Accepted: 12/25/2018] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Michael J A Reid
- Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
| | - Nimalan Arinaminpathy
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Amy Bloom
- Tuberculosis Division, United States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Barry R Bloom
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | | | - Richard Chaisson
- Departments of Medicine, Epidemiology, and International Health, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MA, USA
| | | | | | - Helen Cox
- Department of Pathology, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | | | - Mark Dybul
- Department of Medicine, Centre for Global Health and Quality, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | - Anthony S Fauci
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US National Institutes of Health, Maryland, MA, USA
| | | | - Paula I Fujiwara
- Department of Tuberculosis and HIV, The International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Paris, France
| | - Timothy B Hallett
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | | | - Nick Herbert
- Global TB Caucus, Houses of Parliament, London, UK
| | - Philip C Hopewell
- Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Chieko Ikeda
- Department of GLobal Health, Ministry of Heath, Labor and Welfare, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Dean T Jamison
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Aamir J Khan
- Interactive Research & Development, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Irene Koek
- Global Health Bureau, United States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Nalini Krishnan
- Resource Group for Education and Advocacy for Community Health, Chennai, India
| | - Aaron Motsoaledi
- South African National Department of Health, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Madhukar Pai
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; McGill International TB Center, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Mario C Raviglione
- University of Milan, Milan, Italy; Global Studies Institute, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Almaz Sharman
- Academy of Preventive Medicine of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan
| | - Peter M Small
- Global Health Institute, School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
| | | | - Zelalem Temesgen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MI, USA
| | - Anna Vassall
- Department of Global Health and Development, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | | | | | - Gavin Yamey
- Center for Policy Impact in Global Health, Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Bruce D Agins
- Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Sofia Alexandru
- Institutul de Ftiziopneumologie Chiril Draganiuc, Chisinau, Moldova
| | - Jason R Andrews
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Naomi Beyeler
- Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Stela Bivol
- Center for Health Policies and Studies, Chisinau, Moldova
| | - Grania Brigden
- Department of Tuberculosis and HIV, The International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Paris, France
| | - Adithya Cattamanchi
- Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Danielle Cazabon
- McGill International TB Center, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Valeriu Crudu
- Center for Health Policies and Studies, Chisinau, Moldova
| | - Amrita Daftary
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; McGill International TB Center, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Puneet Dewan
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, New Delhi, India
| | - Laurie K Doepel
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US National Institutes of Health, Maryland, MA, USA
| | - Robert W Eisinger
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US National Institutes of Health, Maryland, MA, USA
| | - Victoria Fan
- T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA; Office of Public Health Studies, University of Hawaii, Mānoa, HI, USA
| | - Sara Fewer
- Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Jennifer Furin
- Division of Infectious Diseases & HIV Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert
- Centers for Health Policy and Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Gabriela B Gomez
- Department of Global Health and Development, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Stephen M Graham
- Department of Tuberculosis and HIV, The International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Paris, France; Department of Paediatrics, Center for International Child Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Devesh Gupta
- Revised National TB Control Program, New Delhi, India
| | - Maureen Kamene
- National Tuberculosis, Leprosy and Lung Disease Program, Ministry of Health, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Eunice W Mailu
- National Tuberculosis, Leprosy and Lung Disease Program, Ministry of Health, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Lorrie McHugh
- Office of the Secretary-General's Special Envoy on Tuberculosis, United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Ellen Mitchell
- International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Hague, Netherland
| | - Suerie Moon
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA; Global Health Centre, The Graduate Institute Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Tripti Pande
- McGill International TB Center, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Lea Prince
- Centers for Health Policy and Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | - Raghuram Rao
- Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, New Delhi, India
| | - Michelle Remme
- International Institute for Global Health, United Nations University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - James A Seddon
- Department of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK; Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Casey Selwyn
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Priya Shete
- Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | | | | | - Juan F Vesga
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | - Eric P Goosby
- Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
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Blaser N, Zahnd C, Hermans S, Salazar-Vizcaya L, Estill J, Morrow C, Egger M, Keiser O, Wood R. Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model. Epidemics 2016; 14:54-61. [PMID: 26972514 PMCID: PMC4791535 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.10.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2014] [Revised: 10/05/2015] [Accepted: 10/11/2015] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nello Blaser
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Cindy Zahnd
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Sabine Hermans
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Institute for Infectious Disease & Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, South Africa; Department of Global Health, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development,The Netherlands; Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Makerere University College of Health Sciences, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Luisa Salazar-Vizcaya
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Janne Estill
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Carl Morrow
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Institute for Infectious Disease & Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Matthias Egger
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Olivia Keiser
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
| | - Robin Wood
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Institute for Infectious Disease & Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, South Africa; Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town,, South Africa; Department of Clinical Research, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
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Houben RMGJ, Dowdy DW, Vassall A, Cohen T, Nicol MP, Granich RM, Shea JE, Eckhoff P, Dye C, Kimerling ME, White RG. How can mathematical models advance tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence settings? Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2015; 18:509-14. [PMID: 24903784 PMCID: PMC4436821 DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.13.0773] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Existing approaches to tuberculosis (TB) control have been no more than partially successful in areas with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. In the context of increasingly constrained resources, mathematical modelling can augment understanding and support policy for implementing those strategies that are most likely to bring public health and economic benefits. In this paper, we present an overview of past and recent contributions of TB modelling in this key area, and suggest a way forward through a modelling research agenda that supports a more effective response to the TB-HIV epidemic, based on expert discussions at a meeting convened by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium. The research agenda identified high-priority areas for future modelling efforts, including 1) the difficult diagnosis and high mortality of TB-HIV; 2) the high risk of disease progression; 3) TB health systems in high HIV prevalence settings; 4) uncertainty in the natural progression of TB-HIV; and 5) combined interventions for TB-HIV. Efficient and rapid progress towards completion of this modelling agenda will require co-ordination between the modelling community and key stakeholders, including advocates, health policy makers, donors and national or regional finance officials. A continuing dialogue will ensure that new results are effectively communicated and new policy-relevant questions are addressed swiftly.
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Affiliation(s)
- R M G J Houben
- TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, and Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK
| | - D W Dowdy
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - A Vassall
- Department of Global Health and Development, LSHTM, London, UK
| | - T Cohen
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - M P Nicol
- Division of Medical Microbiology and Institute of Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, South Africa
| | - R M Granich
- Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - J E Shea
- Oxford-Emergent Tuberculosis Consortium, Wokingham, UK
| | - P Eckhoff
- Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, Bellevue, Washington, USA
| | - C Dye
- HIV, TB Malaria and Neglected Tropical Diseases Cluster, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - M E Kimerling
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - R G White
- TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, and Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK
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