Mathematical modelling identifies the role of adaptive immunity as a key controller of respiratory syncytial virus in cotton rats

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

Different routes of infection of H5N1 lead to changes in infecting time

Influenza virus infection can result in a wide range of clinical outcomes from asymptomatic infection to severe disease and death. While there are undoubtedly many factors that contribute to the severity of disease, one possible contributing factor that needs more investigation is the route of infection. In this study, we use previously published data from cynomolgus macaques infected with A/Vietnam/1203/04 (H5N1) via either aerosol (with and without bronchoalveolar lavages (BAL)) or a combined intrabronchial, oral, and intranasal route. We fit a mathematical model of within host viral kinetics to the data and find that when the macaques are infected via the aerosol route with subsequent BAL, the infecting time is significantly lower than for the other two groups. A lower infecting time indicates that the virus spreads from cell to cell more rapidly for aerosol infection with BAL than for the combined deposition or aerosol deposition alone. This study helps elucidate the mechanism behind different infection outcomes caused by differences in routes of infection.

Modeling of oncolytic viruses in a heterogeneous cell population to predict spread into non-cancerous cells

New cancer treatment modalities that limit patient discomfort need to be developed. One possible new therapy is the use of oncolytic (cancer-killing) viruses. It is only recently that our ability to manipulate viral genomes has allowed us to consider deliberately infecting cancer patients with viruses. One key consideration is to ensure that the virus exclusively targets cancer cells and does not harm nearby non-cancerous cells. Here, we use a mathematical model of viral infection to determine the characteristics a virus would need to have in order to eradicate a tumor, but leave non-cancerous cells untouched. We conclude that the virus must differ in its ability to infect the two different cell types, with the infection rate of non-cancerous cells needing to be less than one hundredth of the infection rate of cancer cells. Differences in viral production rate or infectious cell death rate alone are not sufficient to protect non-cancerous cells.

Quantifying the effect of defective viral genomes in respiratory syncytial virus infections

Defective viral genomes (DVGs) are viral genomes that contain only a partial viral RNA and so cannot replicate within cells on their own. If a cell containing DVGs is subsequently infected with a complete viral genome, the DVG can then use the missing proteins expressed by the full genome in order to replicate itself. Since the cell is producing defective genomes, it has less resources to produce fully functional virions and thus release of complete virions is often suppressed. Here, we use data from challenge studies of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in healthy adults to quantify the effect of DVGs. We use a mathematical model to fit the data, finding that late onset of DVGs and prolonged DVG detection are associated with lower infection rates and higher clearance rates. This result could have implications for the use of DVGs as a therapeutic.

Unusual local epidemic of paediatric respiratory syncytial virus during a time of global pandemic

BACKGROUND

Western Australia (WA) public health measures to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 resulted in a secondary reduction in paediatric respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) admissions. Following an absent expected 2020 winter peak, RSV-positive admissions surged during the summer of 2020.

AIM

This report examines the number of RSV-positive admissions and severities across 36 months to better understand this out-of-season epidemic.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study was performed assessing the number and severity of RSV-related respiratory hospitalisations at a peripheral paediatric centre from March 2018 to February 2021. Data were extracted from the hospital clinical database.

RESULTS

The total number of included participants was n = 294. The total number of RSV hospitalisations in SY (study year) 2018 (March 2018 to February 2019), SY 2019 (March 2019 to February 2020) and SY 2020 (March 2020 to February 2021) was 67, 98 and 129, respectively. Prior to SARS-CoV-2, RSV hospitalisations were highest during the winter months. In SY 2020, there were 0 RSV hospitalisations during winter, while 101 admissions in the following summer season. The proportion of admissions requiring respiratory support was significantly reduced in SY 2020 (34.1%) compared to SY 2018 (46.9%, P = 0.050) and SY 2019 (55.2%, P = 0.004). The median length of stay (LOS) in 2020 was 2.0 which was significantly reduced from 2018 and 2019 which was 3.0, P = 0.001; and 3.0, P < 0.001, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Following a period of RSV absence, there was an unprecedented surge in admission, however, with lower severity and shorter LOS.

Estimation of virus-mediated cell fusion rate of SARS-CoV-2

Several viruses have the ability to form large multinucleated cells known as syncytia. Many properties of syncytia and the role they play in the evolution of a viral infection are not well understood. One basic question that has not yet been answered is how quickly syncytia form. We use a novel mathematical model of cell-cell fusion assays and apply it to experimental data from SARS-CoV-2 fusion assays to provide the first estimates of virus-mediated cell fusion rate. We find that for SARS-CoV2, the fusion rate is in the range of 6 × 10⁻⁴–12×10⁻⁴/h. We also use our model to compare fusion rates when the protease TMPRSS2 is overexpressed (2–4 times larger fusion rate), when the protease furin is removed (one third the original fusion rate), and when the spike protein is altered (1/10th the original fusion rate). The use of mathematical models allows us to provide additional quantitative information about syncytia formation.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Modeled in Aging Cotton Rats (Sigmodon hispidus) and Mice (Mus musculus)

Serious infection with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is associated with high risk in infants, children, and elderly. There is currently no approved vaccine against RSV infection, and the only available prevention is immunoprophylaxis utilized in high-risk infants, leaving the elderly without many options. In the elderly, the chronic low-grade inflammatory state of the body can play a significant role during infection. The cotton rat and mouse have emerged as the preferred small animal models to study RSV infection in the elderly. These animal models of aging have shown an age-dependent time course for clearance of virus correlating with a significantly diminished cytotoxic T lymphocyte and humoral immune response in old animals compared to adult animals. In addition, protection through vaccination is reduced in aging rodents. These results mirror the findings in humans. In mice and cotton rats, treatment with ibuprofen, a nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID), to decrease the chronic low-grade inflammation of the elderly immune system has proven successful in restoring the function of cytotoxic lymphocytes. While more research is required, these treatment types promise a beneficial effect in addition to a putative vaccine. Choosing an appropriate animal model to study RSV infection in the aging immune system is essential to benefit the growing population of elderly in the world. This review focuses on the current research of RSV infection in the cotton rat and mouse as model systems for an aging immune system.

Treatment of Respiratory Viral Coinfections

With the advent of rapid multiplex PCR, physicians have been able to test for multiple viral pathogens when a patient presents with influenza-like illness. This has led to the discovery that many respiratory infections are caused by more than one virus. Antiviral treatment of viral coinfections can be complex because treatment of one virus will affect the time course of the other virus. Since effective antivirals are only available for some respiratory viruses, careful consideration needs to be given on the effect treating one virus will have on the dynamics of the other virus, which might not have available antiviral treatment. In this study, we use mathematical models of viral coinfections to assess the effect of antiviral treatment on coinfections. We examine the effect of the mechanism of action, relative growth rates of the viruses, and the assumptions underlying the interaction of the viruses. We find that high antiviral efficacy is needed to suppress both infections. If high doses of both antivirals are not achieved, then we run the risk of lengthening the duration of coinfection or even of allowing a suppressed virus to replicate to higher viral titers.

Mathematical modelling of SARS-CoV-2 infection of human and animal host cells reveals differences in the infection rates and delays in viral particle production by infected cells

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV -2), a causative agent of COVID-19 disease, poses a significant threat to public health. Since its outbreak in December 2019, Wuhan, China, extensive collection of diverse data from cell culture and animal infections as well as population level data from an ongoing pandemic, has been vital in assessing strategies to battle its spread. Mathematical modelling plays a key role in quantifying determinants that drive virus infection dynamics, especially those relevant for epidemiological investigations and predictions as well as for proposing efficient mitigation strategies. We utilized a simple mathematical model to describe and explain experimental results on viral replication cycle kinetics during SARS-CoV-2 infection of animal and human derived cell lines, green monkey kidney cells, Vero-E6, and human lung epithelium cells, A549-ACE2, respectively. We conducted cell infections using two distinct initial viral concentrations and quantified viral loads over time. We then fitted the model to our experimental data and quantified the viral parameters. We showed that such cellular tropism generates significant differences in the infection rates and incubation times of SARS-CoV-2, that is, the times to the first release of newly synthesised viral progeny by SARS-CoV-2-infected cells. Specifically, the rate at which A549-ACE2 cells were infected by SARS-CoV-2 was 15 times lower than that in the case of Vero-E6 cell infection and the duration of latent phase of A549-ACE2 cells was 1.6 times longer than that of Vero-E6 cells. On the other hand, we found no statistically significant differences in other viral parameters, such as viral production rate or infected cell death rate. Since in vitro infection assays represent the first stage in the development of antiviral treatments against SARS-CoV-2, discrepancies in the viral parameter values across different cell hosts have to be identified and quantified to better target vaccine and antiviral research.

Modeling the dynamics of Usutu virus infection in birds

Usutu virus is an emerging zoonotic flavivirus causing high avian mortality rates and occasional severe neurological disorders in humans. Several virus strains are co-circulating and the differences in their characteristics and avian pathogenesis levels are still unknown. In this study, we use within-host mathematical models to characterize the mechanisms responsible for virus expansion and clearance in juvenile chickens challenged with four Usutu virus strains. We find heterogeneity between the virus strains, with the time between cell infection and viral production varying between 16 h and 23 h, the infected cell lifespan varying between 48 min and 9.5 h, and the basic reproductive number R₀ varying between 12.05 and 19.49. The strains with high basic reproductive number have short infected cell lifespan, indicative of immune responses. The virus strains with low basic reproductive number have lower viral peaks and longer lasting viremia, due to lower infection rates and high infected cell lifespan. We discuss how the host and virus heterogeneities may differently impact the public health threat presented by these virus strains.

Immune-viral dynamics modeling for SARS-CoV-2 drug development

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral infection, which can lead to pneumonia, lung injury, and death in susceptible populations. Understanding viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for development of effective treatments. An Immune-Viral Dynamics Model (IVDM) is developed to describe SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics and COVID-19 disease progression. A dataset of 60 individual patients with COVID-19 with clinical viral load (VL) and reported disease severity were assembled from literature. Viral infection and replication mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2, viral-induced cell death, and time-dependent immune response are incorporated in the model to describe the dynamics of viruses and immune response. Disease severity are tested as a covariate to model parameters. The IVDM was fitted to the data and parameters were estimated using the nonlinear mixed-effect model. The model can adequately describe individual viral dynamics profiles, with disease severity identified as a covariate on infected cell death rate. The modeling suggested that it takes about 32.6 days to reach 50% of maximum cell-based immunity. Simulations based on virtual populations suggested a typical mild case reaches VL limit of detection (LOD) by 13 days with no treatment, a moderate case by 17 days, and a severe case by 41 days. Simulations were used to explore hypothetical treatments with different initiation time, disease severity, and drug effects to demonstrate the usefulness of such modeling in informing decisions. Overall, the IVDM modeling and simulation platform enables simulations for viral dynamics and treatment efficacy and can be used to aid in clinical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) and dose-efficacy response analysis for COVID-19 drug development.

Quantifying dose-, strain-, and tissue-specific kinetics of parainfluenza virus infection

Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) are a leading cause of acute respiratory infection hospitalization in children, yet little is known about how dose, strain, tissue tropism, and individual heterogeneity affects the processes driving growth and clearance kinetics. Longitudinal measurements are possible by using reporter Sendai viruses, the murine counterpart of HPIV 1, that express luciferase, where the insertion location yields a wild-type (rSeV-luc(M-F*)) or attenuated (rSeV-luc(P-M)) phenotype. Bioluminescence from individual animals suggests that there is a rapid increase in expression followed by a peak, biphasic clearance, and resolution. However, these kinetics vary between individuals and with dose, strain, and whether the infection was initiated in the upper and/or lower respiratory tract. To quantify the differences, we translated the bioluminescence measurements from the nasopharynx, trachea, and lung into viral loads and used a mathematical model together a nonlinear mixed effects approach to define the mechanisms distinguishing each scenario. The results confirmed a higher rate of virus production with the rSeV-luc(M-F*) virus compared to its attenuated counterpart, and suggested that low doses result in disproportionately fewer infected cells. The analyses indicated faster infectivity and infected cell clearance rates in the lung and that higher viral doses, and concomitantly higher infected cell numbers, resulted in more rapid clearance. This parameter was also highly variable amongst individuals, which was particularly evident during infection in the lung. These critical differences provide important insight into distinct HPIV dynamics, and show how bioluminescence data can be combined with quantitative analyses to dissect host-, virus-, and dose-dependent effects.

Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) cause acute respiratory infections and can lead to the hospitalization of children. HPIV infection severity may vary due to dose, strain, patient, and whether the infection initiates within the upper or lower respiratory tract. There is a need to determine how the rates of virus spread and clearance change in different infection scenarios in order to better understand varying clinical manifestations. The significance of our research is in identifying the dominant mechanisms driving strain-, dose-, and tissue-specific HPIV infection kinetics, and in pairing bioluminescence data with quantitative analyses to determine how the same virus can yield patient-specific outcomes. This work enhances our understanding of HPIV infection and broadens our knowledge viral dynamics in the upper and lower respiratory tracts.

A study of the effects of age on the dynamics of RSV in animal models

Respiratory syncytial virus can cause severe illness and even death, particularly in infants. The increased severity of disease in young children is thought to be due to a lack of previous exposure to the virus as well as the limited immune response in infants. While studies have examined the clinical differences in disease between infants and adults, there has been limited examination of how the viral dynamics differ as infants develop. In this study, we apply a mathematical model to data from cotton rats and ferrets of different ages to assess how viral kinetics parameters change as the animals age. We find no clear trend in the viral decay rate, infecting time, and basic reproduction number as the animals age. We discuss possible reasons for the null result including the limited data, lack of detail of the mathematical model, and the limitations of animal models.

The role of syncytia during viral infections

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common, contagious infection of the lungs and the respiratory tract. RSV is characterized by syncytia, which are multinuclear cells created by cells that have fused together. We use a mathematical model to study how different assumptions about the viral production and lifespan of syncytia change the resulting infection time course. We find that the effect of syncytia on viral titer is only apparent when the basic reproduction number for infection via syncytia formation is similar to the reproduction number for cell free viral transmission. When syncytia fusion rate is high, we find the presence of syncytia can lead to slowly growing infections if viral production is suppressed in syncytia. Our model provides insight into how the presence of syncytia can affect the time course of a viral infection.

Mechanistic Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 and Other Infectious Diseases and the Effects of Therapeutics

Modern viral kinetic modeling and its application to therapeutics is a field that attracted the attention of the medical, pharmaceutical, and modeling communities during the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Its successes led to applications of modeling methods not only to HIV but a plethora of other viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus and cytomegalovirus, which along with HIV cause chronic diseases, and viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, West Nile virus, Zika virus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which generally cause acute infections. Here we first review the historical development of mathematical models to understand HIV and HCV infections and the effects of treatment by fitting the models to clinical data. We then focus on recent efforts and contributions of applying these models towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection and highlight outstanding questions where modeling can provide crucial insights and help to optimize nonpharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The review is written from our personal perspective emphasizing the power of simple target cell limited models that provided important insights and then their evolution into more complex models that captured more of the virology and immunology. To quote Albert Einstein, "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler," and this idea underlies the modeling we describe below.

Immunogenicity and inflammatory properties of respiratory syncytial virus attachment G protein in cotton rats

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection in infants and young children worldwide. The attachment (G) protein of RSV is synthesized by infected cells in both a membrane bound (mG) and secreted form (sG) and uses a CX3C motif for binding to its cellular receptor. Cell culture and mouse studies suggest that the G protein mimics the cytokine CX3CL1 by binding to CX3CR1 on immune cells, which is thought to cause increased pulmonary inflammation in vivo. However, because these studies have used RSV lacking its G protein gene or blockade of the G protein with a G protein specific monoclonal antibody, the observed reduction in inflammation may be due to reduced virus replication and spread, and not to a direct role for G protein as a viral chemokine. In order to more directly determine the influence of the soluble and the membrane-bound forms of G protein on the immune system independent of its attachment function for the virion, we expressed the G protein in cotton rat lungs using adeno-associated virus (AAV), a vector system which does not itself induce inflammation. We found no increase in pulmonary inflammation as determined by histology and bronchoalveolar lavage after inoculation of AAVs expressing the membrane bound G protein, the secreted G protein or the complete G protein gene which expresses both forms. The long-term low-level expression of AAV-G did, however, result in the induction of non-neutralizing antibodies, CD8 T cells and partial protection from challenge with RSV. Complete protection was accomplished through co-immunization with AAV-G and an AAV expressing cotton rat interferon α.

Quantification of Ebola virus replication kinetics in vitro

Mathematical modelling has successfully been used to provide quantitative descriptions of many viral infections, but for the Ebola virus, which requires biosafety level 4 facilities for experimentation, modelling can play a crucial role. Ebola virus modelling efforts have primarily focused on in vivo virus kinetics, e.g., in animal models, to aid the development of antivirals and vaccines. But, thus far, these studies have not yielded a detailed specification of the infection cycle, which could provide a foundational description of the virus kinetics and thus a deeper understanding of their clinical manifestation. Here, we obtain a diverse experimental data set of the Ebola virus infection in vitro, and then make use of Bayesian inference methods to fully identify parameters in a mathematical model of the infection. Our results provide insights into the distribution of time an infected cell spends in the eclipse phase (the period between infection and the start of virus production), as well as the rate at which infectious virions lose infectivity. We suggest how these results can be used in future models to describe co-infection with defective interfering particles, which are an emerging alternative therapeutic.

Initial Inoculum and the Severity of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study of the Dose-Response of SARS-CoV-2 Infections

SARS-CoV-2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) causes a variety of responses in those who contract the virus, ranging from asymptomatic infections to acute respiratory failure and death. While there are likely multiple mechanisms triggering severe disease, one potential cause of severe disease is the size of the initial inoculum. For other respiratory diseases, larger initial doses lead to more severe outcomes. We investigate whether there is a similar link for SARS-CoV-2 infections using the combination of an agent-based model (ABM) and a partial differential equation model (PDM). We use the model to examine the viral time course for different sizes of initial inocula, generating dose-response curves for peak viral load, time of viral peak, viral growth rate, infection duration, and area under the viral titer curve. We find that large initial inocula lead to short infections, but with higher viral titer peaks; and that smaller initial inocula lower the viral titer peak, but make the infection last longer.

Pulmonary function analysis in cotton rats after respiratory syncytial virus infection

The cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus) is an excellent small animal model for human respiratory viral infections such as human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human metapneumovirus (HMPV). These respiratory viral infections, as well as other pulmonary inflammatory diseases such as asthma, are associated with lung mechanic disturbances. So far, the pathophysiological effects of viral infection and allergy on cotton rat lungs have not been measured, although this information might be an important tool to determine the efficacy of vaccine and drug candidates. To characterize pulmonary function in the cotton rat, we established forced oscillation technique in uninfected, RSV infected and HDM sensitized cotton rats, and characterized pulmonary inflammation, mucus production, pulmonary edema, and oxygenation. There was a gender difference after RSV infection, with females demonstrating airway hyper-responsiveness while males did not. Female cotton rats 2dpi had a mild increase in pulmonary edema (wet: dry weight ratios). At day 4 post infection, female cotton rats demonstrated mild pulmonary inflammation, no increase in mucus production or reduction in oxygenation. Pulmonary function was not significantly impaired after RSV infection. In contrast, cotton rats sensitized to HDM demonstrated airway hyper-responsiveness with a significant increase in pulmonary inflammation, increase in baseline tissue damping, and a decrease in baseline pulmonary compliance. In summary, we established baseline data for forced oscillation technique and other respiratory measures in the cotton rat and used it to analyze respiratory diseases in cotton rats.

SARS-CoV-2 coinfections: Could influenza and the common cold be beneficial?

The novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly spread around the world, causing serious illness and death and creating a heavy burden on the healthcare systems of many countries. Since the virus first emerged in late November 2019, its spread has coincided with peak circulation of several seasonal respiratory viruses, yet some studies have noted limited coinfections between SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses. We use a mathematical model of viral coinfection to study SARS-CoV-2 coinfections, finding that SARS-CoV-2 replication is easily suppressed by many common respiratory viruses. According to our model, this suppression is because SARS-CoV-2 has a lower growth rate (1.8/d) than the other viruses examined in this study. The suppression of SARS-CoV-2 by other pathogens could have implications for the timing and severity of a second wave.