Predicting evolution in response to climate change: the example of sprouting probability in three dormancy-prone orchid species

Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

The transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

Senescence as a trade-off between successful land colonisation and longevity: critical review and analysis of a hypothesis

BACKGROUND

Most common terrestrial animal clades exhibit senescence, suggesting strong adaptive value of this trait. However, there is little support for senescence correlated with specific adaptations. Nevertheless, insects, mammals, and birds, which are the most common terrestrial animal clades that show symptoms of senescence, evolved from clades that predominantly did not show symptoms of senescence. Thus, we aimed to examine senescence in the context of the ecology and life histories of the main clades of animals, including humans, and to formulate hypotheses to explain the causes and origin of senescence in the major clades of terrestrial animals.

METHODOLOGY

We reviewed literature from 1950 to 2020 concerning life expectancy, the existence of senescence, and the adaptive characteristics of the major groups of animals. We then proposed a relationship between senescence and environmental factors, considering the biology of these groups of animals. We constructed a model showing the phylogenetic relationships between animal clades in the context of the major stages of evolution, distinguishing between senescent and biologically 'immortal' clades of animals. Finally, we synthesised current data on senescence with the most important concepts and theories explaining the origin and mechanisms of senescence. Although this categorisation into different senescent phenotypes may be simplistic, we used this to propose a framework for understanding senescence.

RESULTS

We found that terrestrial mammals, insects, and birds show senescence, even though they likely evolved from non-senescent ancestors. Moreover, secondarily aquatic animals show lower rate of senescence than their terrestrial counterparts. Based on the possible life histories of these groups and the analysis of the most important factors affecting the transition from a non-senescent to senescent phenotype, we conclude that aging has evolved, not as a direct effect, but as a correlated response of selection on developmental strategies, and that this occurred separately within each clade. Adoption of specific life history strategies could thus have far-reaching effects in terms of senescence and lifespan.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis strongly suggests that senescence may have emerged as a side effect of the evolution of adaptive features that allowed the colonisation of land. Senescence in mammals may be a compromise between land colonisation and longevity. This hypothesis, is supported by palaeobiological and ecological evidence. We hope that the development of new research methodologies and the availability of more data could be used to test this hypothesis and shed greater light on the evolution of senescence.

Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate

Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and dependable. However, small population sizes, long gaps between surveys, and climate change may be leading to undetected extinctions of many populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread orchid, Cypripedium fasciculatum (clustered lady's slipper), to model population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time between observations. Population size and elevation were negatively associated with extinction, while extinction probability increased with time between observations. We interpret population losses at low elevations as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California and Oregon, and found that 39%-52% of the 2415 populations reported in databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas with high vulnerability to climate or land cover change.

Potential limitations of behavioral plasticity and the role of egg relocation in climate change mitigation for a thermally sensitive endangered species

Anthropogenic climate change is widely considered a major threat to global biodiversity, such that the ability of a species to adapt will determine its likelihood of survival. Egg-burying reptiles that exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, such as critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), are particularly vulnerable to changes in thermal regimes because nest temperatures affect offspring sex, fitness, and survival. It is unclear whether hawksbills possess sufficient behavioral plasticity of nesting traits (i.e., redistribution of nesting range, shift in nesting phenology, changes in nest-site selection, and adjustment of nest depth) to persist within their climatic niche or whether accelerated changes in thermal conditions of nesting beaches will outpace phenotypic adaption and require human intervention. For these reasons, we estimated sex ratios and physical condition of hatchling hawksbills under natural and manipulated conditions and generated and analyzed thermal profiles of hawksbill nest environments within highly threatened mangrove ecosystems at Bahía de Jiquilisco, El Salvador, and Estero Padre Ramos, Nicaragua. Hawksbill clutches protected in situ at both sites incubated at higher temperatures, yielded lower hatching success, produced a higher percentage of female hatchlings, and produced less fit offspring than clutches relocated to hatcheries. We detected cooler sand temperatures in woody vegetation (i.e., coastal forest and small-scale plantations of fruit trees) and hatcheries than in other monitored nest environments, with higher temperatures at the deeper depth. Our findings indicate that mangrove ecosystems present a number of biophysical (e.g., insular nesting beaches and shallow water table) and human-induced (e.g., physical barriers and deforestation) constraints that, when coupled with the unique life history of hawksbills in this region, may limit behavioral compensatory responses by the species to projected temperature increases at nesting beaches. We contend that egg relocation can contribute significantly to recovery efforts in a changing climate under appropriate circumstances.

Drivers of vegetative dormancy across herbaceous perennial plant species

Vegetative dormancy, that is the temporary absence of aboveground growth for ≥ 1 year, is paradoxical, because plants cannot photosynthesise or flower during dormant periods. We test ecological and evolutionary hypotheses for its widespread persistence. We show that dormancy has evolved numerous times. Most species displaying dormancy exhibit life-history costs of sprouting, and of dormancy. Short-lived and mycoheterotrophic species have higher proportions of dormant plants than long-lived species and species with other nutritional modes. Foliage loss is associated with higher future dormancy levels, suggesting that carbon limitation promotes dormancy. Maximum dormancy duration is shorter under higher precipitation and at higher latitudes, the latter suggesting an important role for competition or herbivory. Study length affects estimates of some demographic parameters. Our results identify life historical and environmental drivers of dormancy. We also highlight the evolutionary importance of the little understood costs of sprouting and growth, latitudinal stress gradients and mixed nutritional modes.