Causal machine learning for healthcare and precision medicine

Data-driven prediction of spinal cord injury recovery: An exploration of current status and future perspectives

Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) presents a significant challenge in rehabilitation medicine, with recovery outcomes varying widely among individuals. Machine learning (ML) is a promising approach to enhance the prediction of recovery trajectories, but its integration into clinical practice requires a thorough understanding of its efficacy and applicability. We systematically reviewed the current literature on data-driven models of SCI recovery prediction. The included studies were evaluated based on a range of criteria assessing the approach, implementation, input data preferences, and the clinical outcomes aimed to forecast. We observe a tendency to utilize routinely acquired data, such as International Standards for Neurological Classification of SCI (ISNCSCI), imaging, and demographics, for the prediction of functional outcomes derived from the Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM) III and Functional Independence Measure (FIM) scores with a focus on motor ability. Although there has been an increasing interest in data-driven studies over time, traditional machine learning architectures, such as linear regression and tree-based approaches, remained the overwhelmingly popular choices for implementation. This implies ample opportunities for exploring architectures addressing the challenges of predicting SCI recovery, including techniques for learning from limited longitudinal data, improving generalizability, and enhancing reproducibility. We conclude with a perspective, highlighting possible future directions for data-driven SCI recovery prediction and drawing parallels to other application fields in terms of diverse data types (imaging, tabular, sequential, multimodal), data challenges (limited, missing, longitudinal data), and algorithmic needs (causal inference, robustness).

Review of machine learning solutions for eating disorders

BACKGROUND

Eating Disorders (EDs) are one of the most complex psychiatric disorders, with significant impairment of psychological and physical health, and psychosocial functioning, and are associated with low rates of early detection, low recovery and high relapse rates. This underscores the need for better diagnostic and treatment methods.

OBJECTIVE

This narrative review explores current Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications in the domain of EDs, with a specific emphasis on clinical management in treatment settings. The primary objective are to (i) decrease the knowledge gap between ED researchers and AI-practitioners, by presenting the current state-of-the-art AI applications (including models for causality) in different ED use-cases; (ii) identify limitations of these existing AI interventions and how to address them.

RESULTS

AI/ML methods have been applied in different ED use-cases, including ED risk factor identification and incidence prediction (including the analysis of social media content in the general population), diagnosis, monitoring patients and treatment response and prognosis in clinical populations. A comparative analysis of AI-techniques deployed in these use-cases have been performed, considering factors such as complexity, flexibility, functionality, explainability and adaptability to healthcare constraints.

CONCLUSION

Multiple restrictions have been identified in the existing methods in ML and Causality in terms of achieving actionable healthcare for ED, like lack of good quality and quantity of data for models to train on, while requiring models to be flexible, high-performing, yet being explainable and producing counterfactual explanations, for ensuring the fairness and trustworthiness of its decisions. We conclude that to overcome these limitations and for future AI research and application in clinical management of ED, (i) careful considerations are required with regards to AI-model selection, and (ii) joint efforts from ED researcher and patient community are essential in building better quality and quantity of dedicated ED datasets and secure AI-solution framework.

Solving the puzzle of quality of life in cancer: integrating causal inference and machine learning for data-driven insights

BACKGROUND

Understanding the determinants of global quality of life in cancer patients is crucial for improving their overall well-being. While correlations between various factors and quality of life have been established, the causal relationships remain largely unexplored. This study aimed to identify the causal factors influencing global quality of life in cancer patients and compare them with known correlative factors.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire data, alongside demographic and disease-related features, collected from new cancer patients during their initial visit to an oncology outpatient clinic. Correlations with global quality of life were identified using univariate and multivariate regression analyses. Causal inference analysis was performed using two approaches. First, we employed the Dowhy Python library for causal analysis, incorporating prior information and manual characterization of an acyclic graph. Second, we utilized the Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM) machine learning algorithm from the Lingam Python library, which automatically generated an acyclic graph without prior information. The significance level was set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis of 469 new admissions revealed that disease stage, role functioning, emotional functioning, social functioning, fatigue, pain and diarrhea were linked with global quality of life. The most influential direct causal factors were emotional functioning, social functioning, and physical functioning, while the most influential indirect factors were physical functioning, emotional functioning, and fatigue. Additionally, the most prominent total causal factors were identified as type of cancer (diagnosis), cancer stage, and sex, with total causal effect ratios of -9.47, -4.67, and - 1.48, respectively. The LiNGAM algorithm identified type of cancer (diagnosis), nausea and vomiting and social functioning as significant, with total causal effect ratios of -9.47, -0.42, and 0.42, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified that causal factors for global quality of life in new cancer patients are distinct from correlative factors. Understanding these causal relationships could provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of quality of life in cancer patients and guide targeted interventions to improve their well-being.

Safety and Efficacy of Antiviral Drugs and Vaccines in Pregnant Women: Insights from Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Integration of Viral Infection Dynamics

Addressing the complexities of managing viral infections during pregnancy is essential for informed medical decision-making. This comprehensive review delves into the management of key viral infections impacting pregnant women, namely Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Hepatitis B Virus/Hepatitis C Virus (HBV/HCV), Influenza, Cytomegalovirus (CMV), and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). We evaluate the safety and efficacy profiles of antiviral treatments for each infection, while also exploring innovative avenues such as gene vaccines and their potential in mitigating viral threats during pregnancy. Additionally, the review examines strategies to overcome challenges, encompassing prophylactic and therapeutic vaccine research, regulatory considerations, and safety protocols. Utilizing advanced methodologies, including PBPK modeling, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and causal inference, we can amplify our comprehension and decision-making capabilities in this intricate domain. This narrative review aims to shed light on diverse approaches and ongoing advancements, this review aims to foster progress in antiviral therapy for pregnant women, improving maternal and fetal health outcomes.

The Integration of Clinical Trials With the Practice of Medicine: Repairing a House Divided

Importance

Optimal health care delivery, both now and in the future, requires a continuous loop of knowledge generation, dissemination, and uptake on how best to provide care, not just determining what interventions work but also how best to ensure they are provided to those who need them. The randomized clinical trial (RCT) is the most rigorous instrument to determine what works in health care. However, major issues with both the clinical trials enterprise and the lack of integration of clinical trials with health care delivery compromise medicine's ability to best serve society.

Observations

In most resource-rich countries, the clinical trials and health care delivery enterprises function as separate entities, with siloed goals, infrastructure, and incentives. Consequently, RCTs are often poorly relevant and responsive to the needs of patients and those responsible for care delivery. At the same time, health care delivery systems are often disengaged from clinical trials and fail to rapidly incorporate knowledge generated from RCTs into practice. Though longstanding, these issues are more pressing given the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, heightened awareness of the disproportionate impact of poor access to optimal care on vulnerable populations, and the unprecedented opportunity for improvement offered by the digital revolution in health care. Four major areas must be improved. First, especially in the US, greater clarity is required to ensure appropriate regulation and oversight of implementation science, quality improvement, embedded clinical trials, and learning health systems. Second, greater adoption is required of study designs that improve statistical and logistical efficiency and lower the burden on participants and clinicians, allowing trials to be smarter, safer, and faster. Third, RCTs could be considerably more responsive and efficient if they were better integrated with electronic health records. However, this advance first requires greater adoption of standards and processes designed to ensure health data are adequately reliable and accurate and capable of being transferred responsibly and efficiently across platforms and organizations. Fourth, tackling the problems described above requires alignment of stakeholders in the clinical trials and health care delivery enterprises through financial and nonfinancial incentives, which could be enabled by new legislation. Solutions exist for each of these problems, and there are examples of success for each, but there is a failure to implement at adequate scale.

Conclusions and Relevance

The gulf between current care and that which could be delivered has arguably never been wider. A key contributor is that the 2 limbs of knowledge generation and implementation-the clinical trials and health care delivery enterprises-operate as a house divided. Better integration of these 2 worlds is key to accelerated improvement in health care delivery.

Machine learning techniques to predict the risk of developing diabetic nephropathy: a literature review

Purpose

Diabetes is a major public health challenge with widespread prevalence, often leading to complications such as Diabetic Nephropathy (DN)-a chronic condition that progressively impairs kidney function. In this context, it is important to evaluate if Machine learning models can exploit the inherent temporal factor in clinical data to predict the risk of developing DN faster and more accurately than current clinical models.

Methods

Three different databases were used for this literature review: Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed. Only articles written in English and published between January 2015 and December 2022 were included.

Results

We included 11 studies, from which we discuss a number of algorithms capable of extracting knowledge from clinical data, incorporating dynamic aspects in patient assessment, and exploring their evolution over time. We also present a comparison of the different approaches, their performance, advantages, disadvantages, interpretation, and the value that the time factor can bring to a more successful prediction of diabetic nephropathy.

Conclusion

Our analysis showed that some studies ignored the temporal factor, while others partially exploited it. Greater use of the temporal aspect inherent in Electronic Health Records (EHR) data, together with the integration of omics data, could lead to the development of more reliable and powerful predictive models.

A Roadmap for Using Causal Inference and Machine Learning to Personalize Asthma Medication Selection

Inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) is a mainstay treatment for controlling asthma and preventing exacerbations in patients with persistent asthma. Many types of ICS drugs are used, either alone or in combination with other controller medications. Despite the widespread use of ICSs, asthma control remains suboptimal in many people with asthma. Suboptimal control leads to recurrent exacerbations, causes frequent ER visits and inpatient stays, and is due to multiple factors. One such factor is the inappropriate ICS choice for the patient. While many interventions targeting other factors exist, less attention is given to inappropriate ICS choice. Asthma is a heterogeneous disease with variable underlying inflammations and biomarkers. Up to 50% of people with asthma exhibit some degree of resistance or insensitivity to certain ICSs due to genetic variations in ICS metabolizing enzymes, leading to variable responses to ICSs. Yet, ICS choice, especially in the primary care setting, is often not tailored to the patient's characteristics. Instead, ICS choice is largely by trial and error and often dictated by insurance reimbursement, organizational prescribing policies, or cost, leading to a one-size-fits-all approach with many patients not achieving optimal control. There is a pressing need for a decision support tool that can predict an effective ICS at the point of care and guide providers to select the ICS that will most likely and quickly ease patient symptoms and improve asthma control. To date, no such tool exists. Predicting which patient will respond well to which ICS is the first step toward developing such a tool. However, no study has predicted ICS response, forming a gap. While the biologic heterogeneity of asthma is vast, few, if any, biomarkers and genotypes can be used to systematically profile all patients with asthma and predict ICS response. As endotyping or genotyping all patients is infeasible, readily available electronic health record data collected during clinical care offer a low-cost, reliable, and more holistic way to profile all patients. In this paper, we point out the need for developing a decision support tool to guide ICS selection and the gap in fulfilling the need. Then we outline an approach to close this gap via creating a machine learning model and applying causal inference to predict a patient's ICS response in the next year based on the patient's characteristics. The model uses electronic health record data to characterize all patients and extract patterns that could mirror endotype or genotype. This paper supplies a roadmap for future research, with the eventual goal of shifting asthma care from one-size-fits-all to personalized care, improve outcomes, and save health care resources.

Current Status and Future Directions: The Application of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning for Precision Medicine

Technological innovations, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), have the potential to expedite the goal of precision medicine, especially when combined with increased capacity for voluminous data from multiple sources and expanded therapeutic modalities; however, they also present several challenges. In this communication, we first discuss the goals of precision medicine, and contextualize the use of AI in precision medicine by showcasing innovative applications (e.g., prediction of tumor growth and overall survival, biomarker identification using biomedical images, and identification of patient population for clinical practice) which were presented during the February 2023 virtual public workshop entitled "Application of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Precision Medicine," hosted by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and University of Maryland Center of Excellence in Regulatory Science and Innovation (M-CERSI). Next, we put forward challenges brought about by the multidisciplinary nature of AI, particularly highlighting the need for AI to be trustworthy. To address such challenges, we subsequently note practical approaches, viz., differential privacy, synthetic data generation, and federated learning. The proposed strategies - some of which are highlighted presentations from the workshop - are for the protection of personal information and intellectual property. In addition, methods such as the risk-based management approach and the need for an agile regulatory ecosystem are discussed. Finally, we lay out a call for action that includes sharing of data and algorithms, development of regulatory guidance documents, and pooling of expertise from a broad-spectrum of stakeholders to enhance the application of AI in precision medicine.

Unsupervised machine learning analysis to identify patterns of ICU medication use for fluid overload prediction

INTRODUCTION

Intravenous (IV) medications are a fundamental cause of fluid overload (FO) in the intensive care unit (ICU); however, the association between IV medication use (including volume), administration timing, and FO occurrence remains unclear.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included consecutive adults admitted to an ICU ≥72 hours with available fluid balance data. FO was defined as a positive fluid balance ≥7% of admission body weight within 72 hours of ICU admission. After reviewing medication administration record (MAR) data in three-hour periods, IV medication exposure was categorized into clusters using principal component analysis (PCA) and Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM). Medication regimens of patients with and without FO were compared within clusters to assess for temporal clusters associated with FO using the Wilcoxon rank sum test. Exploratory analyses of the medication cluster most associated with FO for medications frequently appearing and used in the first 24 hours was conducted.

RESULTS

FO occurred in 127/927 (13.7%) of the patients enrolled. Patients received a median (IQR) of 31 (13-65) discrete IV medication administrations over the 72-hour period. Across all 47,803 IV medication administrations, ten unique IV medication clusters were identified with 121-130 medications in each cluster. Among the ten clusters, cluster 7 had the greatest association with FO; the mean number of cluster 7 medications received was significantly greater in patients in the FO cohort compared to patients who did not experience FO (25.6 vs.10.9. p<0.0001). 51 of the 127 medications in cluster 7 (40.2%) appeared in > 5 separate 3-hour periods during the 72-hour study window. The most common cluster 7 medications included continuous infusions, antibiotics, and sedatives/analgesics. Addition of cluster 7 medications to a prediction model with APACHE II score and receipt of diuretics improved the ability for the model to predict fluid overload (AUROC 5.65, p =0.0004).

CONCLUSIONS

Using ML approaches, a unique IV medication cluster was strongly associated with FO. Incorporation of this cluster improved the ability to predict development of fluid overload in ICU patients compared with traditional prediction models. This method may be further developed into real-time clinical applications to improve early detection of adverse outcomes.

The Impact of Digital Hospitals on Patient and Clinician Experience: Systematic Review and Qualitative Evidence Synthesis

BACKGROUND

The digital transformation of health care is advancing rapidly. A well-accepted framework for health care improvement is the Quadruple Aim: improved clinician experience, improved patient experience, improved population health, and reduced health care costs. Hospitals are attempting to improve care by using digital technologies, but the effectiveness of these technologies is often only measured against cost and quality indicators, and less is known about the clinician and patient experience.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to conduct a systematic review and qualitative evidence synthesis to assess the clinician and patient experience of digital hospitals.

METHODS

The PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) and ENTREQ (Enhancing the Transparency in Reporting the Synthesis of Qualitative Research) guidelines were followed. The PubMed, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, and PsycINFO databases were searched from January 2010 to June 2022. Studies that explored multidisciplinary clinician or adult inpatient experiences of digital hospitals (with a full electronic medical record) were included. Study quality was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Data synthesis was performed narratively for quantitative studies. Qualitative evidence synthesis was performed via (1) automated machine learning text analytics using Leximancer (Leximancer Pty Ltd) and (2) researcher-led inductive synthesis to generate themes.

RESULTS

A total of 61 studies (n=39, 64% quantitative; n=15, 25% qualitative; and n=7, 11% mixed methods) were included. Most studies (55/61, 90%) investigated clinician experiences, whereas few (10/61, 16%) investigated patient experiences. The study populations ranged from 8 to 3610 clinicians, 11 to 34,425 patients, and 5 to 2836 hospitals. Quantitative outcomes indicated that clinicians had a positive overall satisfaction (17/24, 71% of the studies) with digital hospitals, and most studies (11/19, 58%) reported a positive sentiment toward usability. Data accessibility was reported positively, whereas adaptation, clinician-patient interaction, and workload burnout were reported negatively. The effects of digital hospitals on patient safety and clinicians' ability to deliver patient care were mixed. The qualitative evidence synthesis of clinician experience studies (18/61, 30%) generated 7 themes: inefficient digital documentation, inconsistent data quality, disruptions to conventional health care relationships, acceptance, safety versus risk, reliance on hybrid (digital and paper) workflows, and patient data privacy. There was weak evidence of a positive association between digital hospitals and patient satisfaction scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicians' experience of digital hospitals appears positive according to high-level indicators (eg, overall satisfaction and data accessibility), but the qualitative evidence synthesis revealed substantive tensions. There is insufficient evidence to draw a definitive conclusion on the patient experience within digital hospitals, but indications appear positive or agnostic. Future research must prioritize equitable investigation and definition of the digital clinician and patient experience to achieve the Quadruple Aim of health care.

Causal association study of the dynamic development of the metabolic syndrome based on longitudinal data

The dynamic progression of metabolic syndrome (MetS) includes developmental deterioration and reverse recovery; however, the key factors in this bidirectional progression have not been identified. Our study aimed to use the data obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and construct a Bayesian network to explore the causal relationship between influential factor and the development and recovery of MetS. Followed up at 4 years, forward progression of MetS occurred in 1543 and reverse recovery of MetS occurred in 1319 of 5581 subjects. Bayesian Networks showed that hyperuricemia and body mass index (BMI) levels directly influenced progression of MetS, and gender, exercise and age play an indirect role through hyperuricemia and BMI levels; high hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and BMI levels directly influenced recovery of MetS, and gender and exercise play an indirect role through BMI levels. Bayesian Network inference found that the rate of progression of MetS in subjects with hyperuricemia increases from 36 to 60%, the rate of progression of MetS in subjects with overweight or obese increases from 36 to 41% and the rate of reverse recovery rate of MetS in subjects with high HbA1c decreased from 33 to 20%. Therefore, attention to individuals at high risk of hyperuricemia, high HbA1c levels, and overweight/obesity should be enhanced, with early detection and following healthy behavioral interventions to prevent, control and delay the progression of MetS and its components.

Achieving Better Understanding of Obstructive Sleep Apnea Treatment Effects on Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes through Machine Learning Approaches: A Narrative Review

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) affects almost a billion people worldwide and is associated with a myriad of adverse health outcomes. Among the most prevalent and morbid are cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Nonetheless, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of OSA treatment have failed to show improvements in CVD outcomes. A major limitation in our field is the lack of precision in defining OSA and specifically subgroups with the potential to benefit from therapy. Further, this has called into question the validity of using the time-honored apnea-hypopnea index as the ultimate defining criteria for OSA. Recent applications of advanced statistical methods and machine learning have brought to light a variety of OSA endotypes and phenotypes. These methods also provide an opportunity to understand the interaction between OSA and comorbid diseases for better CVD risk stratification. Lastly, machine learning and specifically heterogeneous treatment effects modeling can help uncover subgroups with differential outcomes after treatment initiation. In an era of data sharing and big data, these techniques will be at the forefront of OSA research. Advanced data science methods, such as machine-learning analyses and artificial intelligence, will improve our ability to determine the unique influence of OSA on CVD outcomes and ultimately allow us to better determine precision medicine approaches in OSA patients for CVD risk reduction. In this narrative review, we will highlight how team science via machine learning and artificial intelligence applied to existing clinical data, polysomnography, proteomics, and imaging can do just that.

Leveraging artificial intelligence to advance implementation science: potential opportunities and cautions

BACKGROUND

The field of implementation science was developed to address the significant time delay between establishing an evidence-based practice and its widespread use. Although implementation science has contributed much toward bridging this gap, the evidence-to-practice chasm remains a challenge. There are some key aspects of implementation science in which advances are needed, including speed and assessing causality and mechanisms. The increasing availability of artificial intelligence applications offers opportunities to help address specific issues faced by the field of implementation science and expand its methods.

MAIN TEXT

This paper discusses the many ways artificial intelligence can address key challenges in applying implementation science methods while also considering potential pitfalls to the use of artificial intelligence. We answer the questions of "why" the field of implementation science should consider artificial intelligence, for "what" (the purpose and methods), and the "what" (consequences and challenges). We describe specific ways artificial intelligence can address implementation science challenges related to (1) speed, (2) sustainability, (3) equity, (4) generalizability, (5) assessing context and context-outcome relationships, and (6) assessing causality and mechanisms. Examples are provided from global health systems, public health, and precision health that illustrate both potential advantages and hazards of integrating artificial intelligence applications into implementation science methods. We conclude by providing recommendations and resources for implementation researchers and practitioners to leverage artificial intelligence in their work responsibly.

CONCLUSIONS

Artificial intelligence holds promise to advance implementation science methods ("why") and accelerate its goals of closing the evidence-to-practice gap ("purpose"). However, evaluation of artificial intelligence's potential unintended consequences must be considered and proactively monitored. Given the technical nature of artificial intelligence applications as well as their potential impact on the field, transdisciplinary collaboration is needed and may suggest the need for a subset of implementation scientists cross-trained in both fields to ensure artificial intelligence is used optimally and ethically.

Learning across diverse biomedical data modalities and cohorts: Challenges and opportunities for innovation

In healthcare, machine learning (ML) shows significant potential to augment patient care, improve population health, and streamline healthcare workflows. Realizing its full potential is, however, often hampered by concerns about data privacy, diversity in data sources, and suboptimal utilization of different data modalities. This review studies the utility of cross-cohort cross-category (C4) integration in such contexts: the process of combining information from diverse datasets distributed across distinct, secure sites. We argue that C4 approaches could pave the way for ML models that are both holistic and widely applicable. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of C4 in health care, including its present stage, potential opportunities, and associated challenges.

Artificial intelligence for dementia drug discovery and trials optimization

Drug discovery and clinical trial design for dementia have historically been challenging. In part these challenges have arisen from patient heterogeneity, length of disease course, and the tractability of a target for the brain. Applying big data analytics and machine learning tools for drug discovery and utilizing them to inform successful clinical trial design has the potential to accelerate progress. Opportunities arise at multiple stages in the therapy pipeline and the growing availability of large medical data sets opens possibilities for big data analyses to answer key questions in clinical and therapeutic challenges. However, before this goal is reached, several challenges need to be overcome and only a multi-disciplinary approach can promote data-driven decision-making to its full potential. Herein we review the current state of machine learning applications to clinical trial design and drug discovery, while presenting opportunities and recommendations that can break down the barriers to implementation.

Demystification of artificial intelligence for respiratory clinicians managing patients with obstructive lung diseases

INTRODUCTION

Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite all available diagnostics and treatments, these conditions pose a significant individual, economic and social burden. Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to support clinical decision-making processes by optimizing diagnosis and treatment strategies of these heterogeneous and complex chronic respiratory diseases. Its capabilities extend to predicting exacerbation risk, disease progression and mortality, providing healthcare professionals with valuable insights for more effective care. Nevertheless, the knowledge gap between respiratory clinicians and data scientists remains a major constraint for wide application of AI and may hinder future progress. This narrative review aims to bridge this gap and encourage AI deployment by explaining its methodology and added value in asthma and COPD diagnosis and treatment.

AREAS COVERED

This review offers an overview of the fundamental concepts of AI and machine learning, outlines the key steps in building a model, provides examples of their applicability in asthma and COPD care, and discusses barriers to their implementation.

EXPERT OPINION

Machine learning can advance our understanding of asthma and COPD, enabling personalized therapy and better outcomes. Further research and validation are needed to ensure the development of clinically meaningful and generalizable models.

Artificial intelligence for dementia prevention

INTRODUCTION

A wide range of modifiable risk factors for dementia have been identified. Considerable debate remains about these risk factors, possible interactions between them or with genetic risk, and causality, and how they can help in clinical trial recruitment and drug development. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) may refine understanding.

METHODS

ML approaches are being developed in dementia prevention. We discuss exemplar uses and evaluate the current applications and limitations in the dementia prevention field.

RESULTS

Risk-profiling tools may help identify high-risk populations for clinical trials; however, their performance needs improvement. New risk-profiling and trial-recruitment tools underpinned by ML models may be effective in reducing costs and improving future trials. ML can inform drug-repurposing efforts and prioritization of disease-modifying therapeutics.

DISCUSSION

ML is not yet widely used but has considerable potential to enhance precision in dementia prevention.

HIGHLIGHTS

Artificial intelligence (AI) is not widely used in the dementia prevention field. Risk-profiling tools are not used in clinical practice. Causal insights are needed to understand risk factors over the lifespan. AI will help personalize risk-management tools for dementia prevention. AI could target specific patient groups that will benefit most for clinical trials.

Machine learning vs. traditional regression analysis for fluid overload prediction in the ICU

Fluid overload, while common in the ICU and associated with serious sequelae, is hard to predict and may be influenced by ICU medication use. Machine learning (ML) approaches may offer advantages over traditional regression techniques to predict it. We compared the ability of traditional regression techniques and different ML-based modeling approaches to identify clinically meaningful fluid overload predictors. This was a retrospective, observational cohort study of adult patients admitted to an ICU ≥ 72 h between 10/1/2015 and 10/31/2020 with available fluid balance data. Models to predict fluid overload (a positive fluid balance ≥ 10% of the admission body weight) in the 48-72 h after ICU admission were created. Potential patient and medication fluid overload predictor variables (n = 28) were collected at either baseline or 24 h after ICU admission. The optimal traditional logistic regression model was created using backward selection. Supervised, classification-based ML models were trained and optimized, including a meta-modeling approach. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were compared between the traditional and ML fluid prediction models. A total of 49 of the 391 (12.5%) patients developed fluid overload. Among the ML models, the XGBoost model had the highest performance (AUROC 0.78, PPV 0.27, NPV 0.94) for fluid overload prediction. The XGBoost model performed similarly to the final traditional logistic regression model (AUROC 0.70; PPV 0.20, NPV 0.94). Feature importance analysis revealed severity of illness scores and medication-related data were the most important predictors of fluid overload. In the context of our study, ML and traditional models appear to perform similarly to predict fluid overload in the ICU. Baseline severity of illness and ICU medication regimen complexity are important predictors of fluid overload.

Causal inference and observational data

Observational studies using causal inference frameworks can provide a feasible alternative to randomized controlled trials. Advances in statistics, machine learning, and access to big data facilitate unraveling complex causal relationships from observational data across healthcare, social sciences, and other fields. However, challenges like evaluating models and bias amplification remain.

Automated detection of causal relationships among diseases and imaging findings in textual radiology reports

OBJECTIVE

Textual radiology reports contain a wealth of information that may help understand associations among diseases and imaging observations. This study evaluated the ability to detect causal associations among diseases and imaging findings from their co-occurrence in radiology reports.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This IRB-approved and HIPAA-compliant study analyzed 1 702 462 consecutive reports of 1 396 293 patients; patient consent was waived. Reports were analyzed for positive mention of 16 839 entities (disorders and imaging findings) of the Radiology Gamuts Ontology (RGO). Entities that occurred in fewer than 25 patients were excluded. A Bayesian network structure-learning algorithm was applied at P < 0.05 threshold: edges were evaluated as possible causal relationships. RGO and/or physician consensus served as ground truth.

RESULTS

2742 of 16 839 RGO entities were included, 53 849 patients (3.9%) had at least one included entity. The algorithm identified 725 pairs of entities as causally related; 634 were confirmed by reference to RGO or physician review (87% precision). As shown by its positive likelihood ratio, the algorithm increased detection of causally associated entities 6876-fold.

DISCUSSION

Causal relationships among diseases and imaging findings can be detected with high precision from textual radiology reports.

CONCLUSION

This approach finds causal relationships among diseases and imaging findings with high precision from textual radiology reports, despite the fact that causally related entities represent only 0.039% of all pairs of entities. Applying this approach to larger report text corpora may help detect unspecified or heretofore unrecognized associations.

Exploring the potential impact of multi-factor precision interventions in Alzheimer's disease with system dynamics

Numerous clinical trials based on a single-cause paradigm have not resulted in efficacious treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Recently, prevention trials that simultaneously intervened on multiple risk factors have shown mixed results, suggesting that careful design is necessary. Moreover, intensive pilot precision medicine (PM) trial results have been promising but may not generalize to a broader population. These observations suggest that a model-based approach to multi-factor precision medicine (PM) is warranted. We systematically developed a system dynamics model (SDM) of AD for PM using data from two longitudinal studies (N=3660). This method involved a model selection procedure in identifying interaction terms between the SDM components and estimating individualized parameters. We used the SDM to explore simulated single- and double-factor interventions on 14 modifiable risk factors. We quantified the potential impact of double-factor interventions over single-factor interventions as 1.5 [95% CI: 1.5-2.6] and of SDM-based PM over a one-size-fits-all approach as 3.5 [3.1, 3.8] ADAS-cog-13 points in 12 years. Although the model remains to be validated, we tentatively conclude that multi-factor PM could come to play an important role in AD prevention.

Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Monkeypox: A Systematic Review

Monkeypox or Mpox is an infectious virus predominantly found in Africa. It has spread to many countries since its latest outbreak. Symptoms such as headaches, chills, and fever are observed in humans. Lumps and rashes also appear on the skin (similar to smallpox, measles, and chickenpox). Many artificial intelligence (AI) models have been developed for accurate and early diagnosis. In this work, we systematically reviewed recent studies that used AI for mpox-related research. After a literature search, 34 studies fulfilling prespecified criteria were selected with the following subject categories: diagnostic testing of mpox, epidemiological modeling of mpox infection spread, drug and vaccine discovery, and media risk management. In the beginning, mpox detection using AI and various modalities was described. Other applications of ML and DL in mitigating mpox were categorized later. The various machine and deep learning algorithms used in the studies and their performance were discussed. We believe that a state-of-the-art review will be a valuable resource for researchers and data scientists in developing measures to counter the mpox virus and its spread.

A Scalable Framework for Closed-Loop Neuromodulation with Deep Learning

Closed-loop neuromodulation measures dynamic neural or physiological activity to optimize interventions for clinical and nonclinical behavioral, cognitive, wellness, attentional, or general task performance enhancement. Conventional closed-loop stimulation approaches can contain biased biomarker detection (decoders and error-based triggering) and stimulation-type application. We present and verify a novel deep learning framework for designing and deploying flexible, data-driven, automated closed-loop neuromodulation that is scalable using diverse datasets, agnostic to stimulation technology (supporting multi-modal stimulation: tACS, tDCS, tFUS, TMS), and without the need for personalized ground-truth performance data. Our approach is based on identified periods of responsiveness - detected states that result in a change in performance when stimulation is applied compared to no stimulation. To demonstrate our framework, we acquire, analyze, and apply a data-driven approach to our open sourced GX dataset, which includes concurrent physiological (ECG, EOG) and neuronal (EEG) measures, paired with continuous vigilance/attention-fatigue tracking, and High-Definition transcranial electrical stimulation (HD-tES). Our framework's decision process for intervention application identified 88.26% of trials as correct applications, showed potential improvement with varying stimulation types, or missed opportunities to stimulate, whereas 11.25% of trials were predicted to stimulate at inopportune times. With emerging datasets and stimulation technologies, our unifying and integrative framework; leveraging deep learning (Convolutional Neural Networks - CNNs); demonstrates the adaptability and feasibility of automated multimodal neuromodulation for both clinical and nonclinical applications.

Targeting resources efficiently and justifiably by combining causal machine learning and theory

Introduction

Efficient allocation of limited resources relies on accurate estimates of potential incremental benefits for each candidate. These heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) can be estimated with properly specified theory-driven models and observational data that contain all confounders. Using causal machine learning to estimate HTE from big data offers higher benefits with limited resources by identifying additional heterogeneity dimensions and fitting arbitrary functional forms and interactions, but decisions based on black-box models are not justifiable.

Methods

Our solution is designed to increase resource allocation efficiency, enhance the understanding of the treatment effects, and increase the acceptance of the resulting decisions with a rationale that is in line with existing theory. The case study identifies the right individuals to incentivize for increasing their physical activity to maximize the population's health benefits due to reduced diabetes and heart disease prevalence. We leverage large-scale data from multi-wave nationally representative health surveys and theory from the published global meta-analysis results. We train causal machine learning ensembles, extract the heterogeneity dimensions of the treatment effect, sign, and monotonicity of its moderators with explainable AI, and incorporate them into the theory-driven model with our generalized linear model with the qualitative constraint (GLM_QC) method.

Results

The results show that the proposed methodology improves the expected health benefits for diabetes by 11% and for heart disease by 9% compared to the traditional approach of using the model specification from the literature and estimating the model with large-scale data. Qualitative constraints not only prevent counter-intuitive effects but also improve achieved benefits by regularizing the model.

Real-world data mining meets clinical practice: Research challenges and perspective

As Big Data Analysis meets healthcare applications, domain-specific challenges and opportunities materialize in all aspects of data science. Advanced statistical methods and Artificial Intelligence (AI) on Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are used both for knowledge discovery purposes and clinical decision support. Such techniques enable the emerging Predictive, Preventative, Personalized, and Participatory Medicine (P4M) paradigm. Working with the Infectious Disease Clinic of the University Hospital of Modena, Italy, we have developed a range of Data-Driven (DD) approaches to solve critical clinical applications using statistics, Machine Learning (ML) and Big Data Analytics on real-world EHR. Here, we describe our perspective on the challenges we encountered. Some are connected to medical data and their sparse, scarce, and unbalanced nature. Others are bound to the application environment, as medical AI tools can affect people's health and life. For each of these problems, we report some available techniques to tackle them, present examples drawn from our experience, and propose which approaches, in our opinion, could lead to successful real-world, end-to-end implementations.

DESY report number

DESY-22-153.