Protected areas as biodiversity benchmarks for human impact: agriculture and the Serengeti avifauna

Bird species richness and diversity responses to land use change in the Lake Victoria Basin, Kenya

The increasing demand for cultivated lands driven by human population growth, escalating consumption and activities, combined with the vast area of uncultivated land, highlight the pressing need to better understand the biodiversity conservation implications of land use change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Land use change alters natural wildlife habitats with fundamental consequences for biodiversity. Consequently, species richness and diversity typically decline as land use changes from natural to disturbed. We assess how richness and diversity of avian species, grouped into feeding guilds, responded to land use changes, primarily expansion of settlements and cultivation at three sites in the Lake Victoria Basin in western Kenya, following tsetse control interventions. Each site consisted of a matched pair of spatially adjacent natural/semi-natural and settled/cultivated landscapes. Significant changes occurred in bird species richness and diversity in the disturbed relative to the natural landscape. Disturbed areas had fewer guilds and all guilds in disturbed areas also occurred in natural areas. Guilds had significantly more species in natural than in disturbed areas. The insectivore/granivore and insectivore/wax feeder guilds occurred only in natural areas. Whilst species diversity was far lower, a few species of estrildid finches were more common in the disturbed landscapes and were often observed on the scrubby edges of modified habitats. In contrast, the natural and less disturbed wooded areas had relatively fewer estrildid species and were completely devoid of several other species. In aggregate, land use changes significantly reduced bird species richness and diversity on the disturbed landscapes regardless of their breeding range size or foraging style (migratory or non-migratory) and posed greater risks to non-migratory species. Accordingly, land use planning should integrate conservation principles that preserve salient habitat qualities required by different bird species, such as adequate patch size and habitat connectivity, conserve viable bird populations and restore degraded habitats to alleviate adverse impacts of land use change on avian species richness and diversity.

Increases in subsistence farming due to land reform have negligible impact on bird communities in Zimbabwe

Habitat alterations resulting from land-use change are major drivers of global biodiversity losses. In Africa, these threats are especially severe. For instance, demand to convert land into agricultural uses is leading to increasing areas of drylands in southern and central Africa being transformed for agriculture. In Zimbabwe, a land reform programme provided an opportunity to study the biodiversity response to abrupt habitat modification in part of a 91,000 ha dryland area of semi-natural savannah used since 1930 for low-level cattle ranching. Small-scale subsistence farms were created during 2001-2002 in 65,000 ha of this area, with ranching continuing in the remaining unchanged area. We measured the compositions of bird communities in farmed and ranched land over 8 years, commencing one decade after subsistence farms were established. Over the study period, repeated counts were made along the same 45 transects to assess species' population changes that may have resulted from trait-filtering responses to habitat disturbance. In 2012, avian species' richness was substantially higher (+8.8%) in the farmland bird community than in the unmodified ranched area. Temporal trends over the study period showed increased species' richness in the ranched area (+12.3%) and farmland (+6.8%). There were increased abundances in birds of most sizes, and in all feeding guilds. New species did not add new functional traits, and no species with distinctive traits were lost in either area. As a result, species' diversity reduced, and functional redundancy increased by 6.8% in ranched land. By 2020, two decades after part of the ranched savannah was converted into farmland, the compositions of the two bird communities had both changed and became more similar. The broadly benign impact on birds of land conversion into subsistence farms is attributed to the relatively low level of agricultural activity in the farmland and the large regional pool of nonspecialist bird species.

Reference state and benchmark concepts for better biodiversity conservation in contemporary ecosystems

Measuring the status and trends of biodiversity is critical for making informed decisions about the conservation, management or restoration of species, habitats and ecosystems. Defining the reference state against which status and change are measured is essential. Typically, reference states describe historical conditions, yet historical conditions are challenging to quantify, may be difficult to falsify, and may no longer be an attainable target in a contemporary ecosystem. We have constructed a conceptual framework to help inform thinking and discussion around the philosophical underpinnings of reference states and guide their application. We characterize currently recognized historical reference states and describe them as Pre-Human, Indigenous Cultural, Pre-Intensification and Hybrid-Historical. We extend the conceptual framework to include contemporary reference states as an alternative theoretical perspective. The contemporary reference state framework is a major conceptual shift that focuses on current ecological patterns and identifies areas with higher biodiversity values relative to other locations within the same ecosystem, regardless of the disturbance history. We acknowledge that past processes play an essential role in driving contemporary patterns of diversity. The specific context for which we design the contemporary conceptual frame is underpinned by an overarching goal-to maximize biodiversity conservation and restoration outcomes in existing ecosystems. The contemporary reference state framework can account for the inherent differences in the diversity of biodiversity values (e.g. native species richness, habitat complexity) across spatial scales, communities and ecosystems. In contrast to historical reference states, contemporary references states are measurable and falsifiable. This 'road map of reference states' offers perspective needed to define and assess the status and trends in biodiversity and habitats. We demonstrate the contemporary reference state concept with an example from south-eastern Australia. Our framework provides a tractable way for policy-makers and practitioners to navigate biodiversity assessments to maximize conservation and restoration outcomes in contemporary ecosystems.

Spatio-Temporal Changes in Wildlife Habitat Quality in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem

Understanding habitat quality and its dynamics is imperative for maintaining healthy wildlife populations and ecosystems. We mapped and evaluated changes in habitat quality (1975–2015) in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem of northern Tanzania using the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. This is the first habitat quality assessment of its kind for this ecosystem. We characterized changes in habitat quality in the ecosystem and in a 30 kilometer buffer area. Four habitat quality classes (poor, low, medium and high) were identified and their coverage quantified. Overall (1975–2015), habitat quality declined over time but at rates that were higher for habitats with lower protection level or lower initial quality. As a result, habitat quality deteriorated the most in the unprotected and human-dominated buffer area surrounding the ecosystem, at intermediate rates in the less heavily protected Wildlife Management Areas, Game Controlled Areas, Game Reserves and the Ngorongoro Conservation Area and the least in the most heavily protected Serengeti National Park. The deterioration in habitat quality over time was attributed primarily to anthropogenic activities and major land use policy changes. Effective implementation of land use plans, robust and far-sighted institutional arrangements, adaptive legal and policy instruments are essential to sustaining high habitat quality in contexts of rapid human population growth.

Rapid redistribution of agricultural land alters avian richness, abundance, and functional diversity

The conversion of natural, or seminatural, habitats to agricultural land and changes in agricultural land use are significant drivers of biodiversity loss. Within the context of land-sharing versus land-sparing debates, large-scale commercial agriculture is known to be detrimental to biodiversity, but the effects of small-scale subsistence farming on biodiversity are disputed. This poses a problem for sustainable land-use management in the Global South, where approximately 30% of farmland is small-scale. Following a rapid land redistribution program in Zimbabwe, we evaluated changes in avian biodiversity by examining richness, abundance, and functional diversity. Rapid land redistribution has, in the near term, resulted in increased avian abundance in newly farmed areas containing miombo woodland and open habitat. Conversion of seminatural ranched land to small-scale farms had a negative impact on larger-bodied birds, but species richness increased, and birds in some feeding guilds maintained or increased abundance. We found evidence that land-use change caused a shift in the functional traits of the communities present. However, functional analyses may not have adequately reflected the trait filtering effect of land redistribution on large species. Whether newly farmed landscapes in Zimbabwe can deliver multiple benefits in terms of food production and habitat for biodiversity in the longer term is an open question. When managing agricultural land transitions, relying on taxonomic measures of diversity, or abundance-weighted measures of function diversity, may obscure important information. If the value of smallholder-farmed land for birds is to be maintained or improved, it will be essential to ensure that a wide array of habitat types is retained alongside efforts to reduce hunting and persecution of large bird species.

Modeling biodiversity benchmarks in variable environments

Effective environmental assessment and management requires quantifiable biodiversity targets. Biodiversity benchmarks define these targets by focusing on specific biodiversity metrics, such as species richness. However, setting fixed targets can be challenging because many biodiversity metrics are highly variable, both spatially and temporally. We present a multivariate, hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate biodiversity benchmarks based on the species richness and cover of native terrestrial vegetation growth forms. This approach uses existing data to quantify the empirical distributions of species richness and cover within growth forms, and we use the upper quantiles of these distributions to estimate contemporary, "best-on-offer" biodiversity benchmarks. Importantly, we allow benchmarks to differ among vegetation types, regions, and seasons, and with changes in recent rainfall. We apply our method to data collected over 30 yr at ~35,000 floristic plots in southeastern Australia. Our estimated benchmarks were broadly consistent with existing expert-elicited benchmarks, available for a small subset of vegetation types. However, in comparison with expert-elicited benchmarks, our data-driven approach is transparent, repeatable, and updatable; accommodates important spatial and temporal variation; aligns modeled benchmarks directly with field data and the concept of best-on-offer benchmarks; and, where many benchmarks are required, is likely to be more efficient. Our approach is general and could be used broadly to estimate biodiversity targets from existing data in highly variable environments, which is especially relevant given rapid changes in global environmental conditions.

Global loss of avian evolutionary uniqueness in urban areas

Urbanization, one of the most important anthropogenic impacts on Earth, is rapidly expanding worldwide. This expansion of urban land-covered areas is known to significantly reduce different components of biodiversity. However, the global evidence for this effect is mainly focused on a single diversity measure (species richness) with a few local or regional studies also supporting reductions in functional diversity. We have used birds, an important ecological group that has been used as surrogate for other animals, to investigate the hypothesis that urbanization reduces the global taxonomical and/or evolutionary diversity. We have also explored whether there is evidence supporting that urban bird communities are evolutionarily homogenized worldwide in comparison with nonurban ones by means of using evolutionary distinctiveness (how unique are the species) of bird communities. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to quantify the effect of urbanization in more than one single diversity measure as well as the first time to look for associations between urbanization and phylogenetic diversity at a large spatial scale. Our findings show a strong and globally consistent reduction in taxonomic diversity in urban areas, which is also synchronized with the evolutionary homogenization of urban bird communities. Despite our general patterns, we found some regional differences in the intensity of the effect of cities on bird species richness or evolutionary distinctiveness, suggesting that conservation efforts should be adapted locally. Our findings might be useful for conservationists and policymakers to minimize the impact of urban development on Earth's biodiversity and help design more realistic conservation strategies.

Land-use change promotes avian diversity at the expense of species with unique traits

Land‐use change may alter both species diversity and species functional diversity patterns. To test the idea that species diversity and functional diversity changes respond in differing ways to land‐use changes, we characterize the form of the change in bird assemblages and species functional traits along an intensifying gradient of land use in the savanna biome in a historically homogeneous vegetation type in Phalaborwa, South Africa. A section of this vegetation type has been untransformed, and the remainder is now mainly characterized by urban and subsistence agricultural areas. Using morphometric, foraging and breeding functional traits of birds, we estimate functional diversity changes. Bird species richness and abundance are generally higher in urban and subsistence agricultural land uses, as well as in the habitat matrix connecting these regions, than in the untransformed area, a pattern mainly driven through species replacement. Functionally unique species, particularly ground nesters of large body size, were, however, less abundant in more utilized land uses. For a previously homogenous vegetation type, declines in the seasonality of energy availability under land‐use change have led to an increase in local avian diversity, promoting the turnover of species, but reduced the abundance of functionally unique species. Although there is no simple relationship between land‐use and diversity change, land‐use change may suit some species, but such change may also involve functional homogenization.

Balancing Conservation with National Development: A Socio-Economic Case Study of the Alternatives to the Serengeti Road

Developing countries often have rich natural resources but poor infrastructure to capitalize on them, which leads to significant challenges in terms of balancing poverty alleviation with conservation. The underlying premise in development strategies is to increase the socio-economic welfare of the people while simultaneously ensuring environmental sustainability, however these objectives are often in direct conflict. National progress is dependent on developing infrastructure such as effective transportation networks, however roads can be ecologically catastrophic in terms of disrupting habitat connectivity and facilitating illegal activity. How can national development and conservation be balanced? The proposed Serengeti road epitomizes the conflict between poverty alleviation on one hand, and the conservation of a critical ecosystem on the other. We use the Serengeti as an exemplar case-study in which the relative economic and social benefits of a road can be assessed against the ecological impacts. Specifically, we compare three possible transportation routes and ask which route maximizes the socio-economic returns for the people while minimizing the ecological costs. The findings suggest that one route in particular that circumnavigates the Serengeti links the greatest number of small and medium sized entrepreneurial businesses to the largest labour force in the region. Furthermore, this route connects the most children to schools, provisions the greatest access to hospitals, and opens the most fertile crop and livestock production areas, and does not compromise the ecology and tourism revenue of the Serengeti. This route would improve Tanzania's food security and self-reliance and would facilitate future infrastructure development which would not be possible if the road were to pass through the Serengeti. This case study provides a compelling example of how a detailed spatial analysis can balance the national objectives of poverty alleviation while maintaining ecological integrity.

Human–carnivore conflict over livestock in the eastern part of the Serengeti ecosystem, with a particular focus on the African wild dogLycaon pictus

During 2007–2009 we conducted a survey of attacks by wild carnivores on the livestock of the Maasai and Sonjo tribes in the eastern Serengeti ecosystem of northern Tanzania. Local enumerators systematically recorded incidents of carnivore predation on livestock and their data were quantified by us, with the aid of District Game Officers or trusted local people. The annual rate of attack by African wild dogsLycaon pictuswas significantly higher (1.42 animals per 1,000 livestock) in the Sonjo tribal area than in the Maasai tribal area (0.72 animals per 1,000 livestock). In the Maasai tribal area there was a significant amount of predation by leopardsPanthera pardusand spotted hyaenasCrocuta crocuta. In both tribal areas sheepOvis ariesand goatsCapra aegagrus hircuswere subject to predation more frequently than cattle. Attacks on livestock by wild dogs occurred most frequently in the afternoon and evening, whereas other carnivores generally attacked livestock at night. Sheep and goats were most frequently attacked by most carnivores during the long rainy season. CattleBos primigeniuswere most frequently attacked by wild dogs and leopards during the long dry season and by lionsPanthera leoduring the long rainy season, whereas spotted hyaenas killed cattle most frequently during the short rainy season.

Human activities in Natura 2000 sites: a highly diversified conservation network

The Natura 2000 network was established across the European Union's (EU) Member States with the aim to conserve biodiversity, while ensuring the sustainability of human activities. However, to what kind and to what extent Natura 2000 sites are subject to human activities and how this varies across Member States remains unspecified. Here, we analyzed 111,269 human activity records from 14,727 protected sites in 20 Member States. The frequency of occurrence of activities differs among countries, with more than 86 % of all sites being subjected to agriculture or forestry. Activities like hunting, fishing, urbanization, transportation, and tourism are more frequently recorded in south European sites than in northern or eastern ones. The observed variations indicate that Natura 2000 networks are highly heterogeneous among EU Member States. Our analysis highlights the importance of agriculture in European landscapes and indicates possible targets for policy interventions at national, European, or "sub-European" level. The strong human presence in the Natura 2000 network throughout Member States, shows that conservation initiatives could succeed only by combining social and ecological sustainability and by ensuring the integration of policies affecting biodiversity.

Structurally complex farms support high avian functional diversity in tropical montane Ethiopia

Of all feeding guilds, understorey insectivores are thought to be most sensitive to disturbance and forest conversion. We compared the composition of bird feeding guilds in tropical forest fragments with adjacent agro-ecosystems in a montane region of south-west Ethiopia. We used a series of point counts to survey birds in 19 agriculture and 19 forest sites and recorded tree species within each farm across an area of 40 × 35 km. Insectivores (~17 spp. per plot), frugivores (~3 spp. per plot) and omnivores (~5 spp. per plot) maintained species density across habitats, while granivores and nectarivores increased in the agricultural sites by factors of 7 and 3 respectively. Species accumulation curves of each guild were equal or steeper in agriculture, suggesting that agricultural and forest landscapes were equally heterogeneous for all bird guilds. Counter to most published studies, we found no decline in insectivore species richness with forest conversion. However, species composition differed between the two habitats, with certain forest specialists replaced by other species within each feeding guild. We suggest that the lack of difference in insectivorous species numbers between forest and agriculture in this region is due to the benign nature of the agricultural habitat, but also due to a regional species pool which contains many bird species which are adapted to open habitats.

Bird use of almond plantations: implications for conservation and production

Context Farmland crops may suffer damage from native animals, but also provide a critical resource during times of food scarcity. We know little about bird use of almond crops. Aims To examine factors influencing temporal and spatial variation in the use of almond crops in north-western Victoria by bird species, including the threatened regent parrot (Polytelis anthopeplus), and to record levels of crop damage. Methods We measured bird occurrence in 15 transects during the almond-growing season of 2009/10, and 32 transects during 2010/11. Crop-damage assessments were conducted in 2010/11. Spatio-temporal variation in bird occurrence was related to seasonal factors, landscape variables and bird-control activities. Key results Significantly more regent parrots and small parrots (e.g. Platycercus elegans and Psephotus haematonotus) were recorded in almond plantations in 2009/10 than in 2010/11. Rainfall and wheat production was much higher in 2010/11, and we hypothesise that the availability of alternative foods reduced parrot dependence on almonds. Regent parrot occurrence did not differ across months within a season, but more small parrots were recorded during almond nut maturity. Regent parrots appeared to prefer locations where almond crops abutted native vegetation, but only during 2009/10, a dry year with likely limited food availability. Small parrots occurred more often in crops close to riverine vegetation and distant from farm offices. Nut damage was generally low, with only 7 of 32 transects sustaining >4% total damage, but damage assessments were conducted during a season of high rainfall, with likely greater availability of alternative food. Percentage damage was significantly correlated with the number of regent and small parrots. Shooting activity did not deter birds from using almond crops. Conclusions Parrots appear to rely more on almond crops for food when environmental conditions limit other food resources. A key strategy for managing bird impacts on almonds while supporting species conservation is to provide decoy crops of preferred native plants. Implications Rapid loss of almond plantations may lead to population declines in the threatened regent parrot if the availability of alternative food is not simultaneously increased. The role of production land uses in supporting native birds needs to be recognised by conservation management agencies.

Large-scale impacts of herbivores on the structural diversity of African savannas

African savannas are undergoing management intensification, and decision makers are increasingly challenged to balance the needs of large herbivore populations with the maintenance of vegetation and ecosystem diversity. Ensuring the sustainability of Africa's natural protected areas requires information on the efficacy of management decisions at large spatial scales, but often neither experimental treatments nor large-scale responses are available for analysis. Using a new airborne remote sensing system, we mapped the three-dimensional (3-D) structure of vegetation at a spatial resolution of 56 cm throughout 1640 ha of savanna after 6-, 22-, 35-, and 41-year exclusions of herbivores, as well as in unprotected areas, across Kruger National Park in South Africa. Areas in which herbivores were excluded over the short term (6 years) contained 38%-80% less bare ground compared with those that were exposed to mammalian herbivory. In the longer-term (> 22 years), the 3-D structure of woody vegetation differed significantly between protected and accessible landscapes, with up to 11-fold greater woody canopy cover in the areas without herbivores. Our maps revealed 2 scales of ecosystem response to herbivore consumption, one broadly mediated by geologic substrate and the other mediated by hillslope-scale variation in soil nutrient availability and moisture conditions. Our results are the first to quantitatively illustrate the extent to which herbivores can affect the 3-D structural diversity of vegetation across large savanna landscapes.

Size-dependent resistance of protected areas to land-use change

One of the major threats facing protected areas (PAs) is land-use change and habitat loss. We assessed the impact of land-use change on PAs. The majority of parks have been effective at protecting the ecosystems within their borders, even in areas with significant land-use pressures. More in particular, the capacity of PAs to slow down habitat degradation and to favour habitat restoration is clearly related to their size, with smaller areas that on average follow the dominant land-use change pattern into which they are embedded. Our results suggest that small parks are not going to be viable in the long term if they are considered as islands surrounded by a 'human-dominated ocean'. However, small PAs are, in many cases, the only option available, implying that we need to devote much more attention to the non-protected matrix in which PAs must survive.

Human impacts on regional avian diversity and abundance

Patterns of association between humans and biodiversity typically show positive, negative, or negative quadratic relationships and can be described by 3 hypotheses: biologically rich areas that support high human population densities co-occur with areas of high biodiversity (productivity); biodiversity decreases monotonically with increasing human activities (ecosystem stress); and biodiversity peaks at intermediate levels of human influence (intermediate disturbance). To test these hypotheses, we compared anthropogenic land cover and housing units, as indices of human influence, with bird species richness and abundance across the Midwestern United States. We modeled richness of native birds with 12 candidate models of land cover and housing to evaluate the empirical evidence. To assess which species were responsible for observed variation in richness, we repeated our model-selection analysis with relative abundance of each native species as the response and then asked whether natural-history traits were associated with positive, negative, or mixed responses. Native avian richness was highest where anthropogenic land cover was lowest and housing units were intermediate based on model-averaged predictions among a confidence set of candidate models. Eighty-three of 132 species showed some pattern of association with our measures of human influence. Of these species approximately 40% were negatively associated, approximately 6% were positively associated, and approximately 7% showed evidence of an intermediate relationship with human influence measures. Natural-history traits were not closely related to the direction of the relationship between abundance and human influence. Nevertheless, pooling species that exhibited any relationship with human influence and comparing them with unrelated species indicated they were significantly smaller, nested closer to the ground, had shorter incubation and fledging times, and tended to be altricial. Our results support the ecosystem-stress hypothesis for the majority of individual species and for overall species diversity when focusing on anthropogenic land cover. Nevertheless, the great variability in housing units across the land-cover gradient indicates that an intermediate-disturbance relationship is also supported. Our findings suggest preemptive conservation action should be taken, whereby areas with little anthropogenic land cover are given conservation priority. Nevertheless, conservation action should not be limited to pristine landscapes because our results showed that native avian richness and the relative abundance of many species peaked at intermediate housing densities and levels of anthropogenic land cover.

Baselines and degradation of coral reefs in the Northern Line Islands

Effective conservation requires rigorous baselines of pristine conditions to assess the impacts of human activities and to evaluate the efficacy of management. Most coral reefs are moderately to severely degraded by local human activities such as fishing and pollution as well as global change, hence it is difficult to separate local from global effects. To this end, we surveyed coral reefs on uninhabited atolls in the northern Line Islands to provide a baseline of reef community structure, and on increasingly populated atolls to document changes associated with human activities. We found that top predators and reef-building organisms dominated unpopulated Kingman and Palmyra, while small planktivorous fishes and fleshy algae dominated the populated atolls of Tabuaeran and Kiritimati. Sharks and other top predators overwhelmed the fish assemblages on Kingman and Palmyra so that the biomass pyramid was inverted (top-heavy). In contrast, the biomass pyramid at Tabuaeran and Kiritimati exhibited the typical bottom-heavy pattern. Reefs without people exhibited less coral disease and greater coral recruitment relative to more inhabited reefs. Thus, protection from overfishing and pollution appears to increase the resilience of reef ecosystems to the effects of global warming.

Conservation value of multiple-use areas in East Africa

Despite wide agreement that strictly protected areas (World Conservation Union categories I-III) are the best strategy for conserving biodiversity, they are limited in extent and exclude many species of key conservation importance. In contrast, multiple-use management areas (categories IV-VI), comprising >60% of the world's protected-area network, are often considered of little value to biodiversity conservation, particularly in Africa, where they typically contain few charismatic large mammals. We sampled small mammals, amphibians, birds, butterflies, and trees at 41 sites along a four-step gradient of increasing human activity and decreasing conservation protection, from a well-protected Tanzanian national park to nonintensive agricultural land. Although preliminary, our results indicate that species richness of these five taxa did not decline along this gradient, but different management areas, occupying areas of largely similar habitat, hosted distinct communities of each taxon. Differences in species composition in the absence of manifest differences in species richness highlight the importance of developing landscape-scale conservation strategies and the danger of using either a limited suite of indicator taxa or umbrella species as surrogates for biodiversity. Although strictly protected areas perform a unique and vital conservation service in East Africa by protecting large mammals, areas that allow varied resource extraction activities still possess vital and complementary conservation value.

The role of research in evaluating conservation strategies in Tanzania: the case of the Katavi-Rukwa ecosystem

Strict protectionism, resource extraction, protected-area community outreach, ecotourism, an integrated conservation and development program, comanagement schemes, and citizen-science initiatives are all being used to help conserve the remote Katavi-Rukwa ecosystem in western Tanzania. Biological and social research show that protectionism is successful in the conservation of large mammals but fails to capture diverse species communities; extractivism is appropriate for some resources but not for others; protected-area outreach can be effective for some communities; and devolved control over wildlife, in conjunction with ecotourism and citizen science, has considerable potential in the area. The long-term nature of the research provides the necessary time frame to evaluate outcomes of different conservation strategies, uncovers dynamics within communities that affect attitudes and responses to conservation initiatives, provides impartial recommendations because changing research personnel offers different viewpoints, and, probably most importantly, enhances trust among stakeholders. Currently, there are limited institutional mechanisms for ensuring the input of biological and social science in shaping conservation practice in Tanzania, and long-term research can help informally bridge the gap.

Long-term ecosystem dynamics in the Serengeti: lessons for conservation

Data from long-term ecological studies further understanding of ecosystem dynamics and can guide evidence-based management. In a quasi-natural experiment we examined long-term monitoring data on different components of the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem to trace the effects of disturbances and thus to elucidate cause-and-effect connections between them. The long-term data illustrated the role of food limitation in population regulation in mammals, particularly in migratory wildebeest and nonmigratory buffalo. Predation limited populations of smaller resident ungulates and small carnivores. Abiotic events, such as droughts and floods, created disturbances that affected survivorship of ungulates and birds. Such disturbances showed feedbacks between biotic and abiotic realms. Interactions between elephants and their food allowed savanna and grassland communities to co-occur. With increased woodland vegetation, predators' capture of prey increased. Anthropogenic disturbances had direct (hunting) and indirect (transfer of disease to wildlife) effects. Slow and rapid changes and multiple ecosystem states became apparent only over several decades and involved events at different spatial scales. Conservation efforts should accommodate both infrequent and unpredictable events and long-term trends. Management should plan on the time scale of those events and should not aim to maintain the status quo. Systems can be self-regulating through food availability and predator-prey interactions; thus, culling may not be required. Ecosystems can occur in multiple states; thus, there may be no a priori need to maintain one natural state. Finally, conservation efforts outside protected areas must distinguish between natural change and direct human-induced change. Protected areas can act as ecological baselines in which human-induced change is kept to a minimum.

Protected areas and regional avian species richness in South Africa

Protected areas are generally regarded as essential for the long-term maintenance of biodiversity. Evidence for their effectiveness in this regard is, however, somewhat equivocal. Here, we document the relationship between the proportion of protected land and species richness in a region, both with and without taking spatial variation in environmental energy availability into account. Using the South African avifauna as a case study, we find that total and threatened species richness exhibit modest increases with the proportion of protected land. While the protected area network should be expanded, it is essential that conservation efforts also focus on maintaining biodiversity in the wider unprotected landscape that supports high species richness.

Disease risk analysis: a tool for primate conservation planning and decision making

Concern about emerging and re-emerging diseases plays an increasing role in conservation and management of both captive and free-ranging nonhuman primates (NHPs). Managers and policy makers must formulate conservation plans in an arena plagued by uncertainty, complexity, emotion, and politics. The risk analysis paradigm provides a framework that brings together scientists and policy experts to make better decisions for both people and animals. Risk analysis is a multidisciplinary, science-based process that provides an organized and logical approach for incorporating scientific information into policy development in the real world. By blending four specific goal-oriented stages-hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication-one can logically assess the probability that an adverse event, such as the introduction of an emerging disease into a naïve population, will occur. The following is a review of this process as it pertains to NHP conservation and risks associated with infectious diseases.

Birds and people in Europe

At a regional scale, species richness and human population size are frequently positively correlated across space. Such patterns may arise because both species richness and human density increase with energy availability. If the species-energy relationship is generated through the 'more individuals' hypothesis, then the prediction is that areas with high human densities will also support greater numbers of individuals from other taxa. We use the unique data available for the breeding birds in Europe to test this prediction. Overall regional densities of bird species are higher in areas with more people; species of conservation concern exhibit the same pattern. Avian density also increases faster with human density than does avian biomass, indicating that areas with a higher human density have a higher proportion of small-bodied individuals. The analyses also underline the low numbers of breeding birds in Europe relative to humans, with a median of just three individual birds per person, and 4 g of bird for every kilogram of human.