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Tao Y, Hastings A, Lafferty KD, Hanski I, Ovaskainen O. Landscape fragmentation overturns classical metapopulation thinking. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2303846121. [PMID: 38709920 PMCID: PMC11098110 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2303846121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2023] [Accepted: 03/05/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Habitat loss and isolation caused by landscape fragmentation represent a growing threat to global biodiversity. Existing theory suggests that the process will lead to a decline in metapopulation viability. However, since most metapopulation models are restricted to simple networks of discrete habitat patches, the effects of real landscape fragmentation, particularly in stochastic environments, are not well understood. To close this major gap in ecological theory, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model applicable to realistic landscape structures, bridging metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology. This model reproduced classical metapopulation dynamics under conventional model assumptions, but on fragmented landscapes, it uncovered general dynamics that are in stark contradiction to the prevailing views in the ecological and conservation literature. Notably, fragmentation can give rise to a series of dualities: a) positive and negative responses to environmental noise, b) relative slowdown and acceleration in density decline, and c) synchronization and desynchronization of local population dynamics. Furthermore, counter to common intuition, species that interact locally ("residents") were often more resilient to fragmentation than long-ranging "migrants." This set of findings signals a need to fundamentally reconsider our approach to ecosystem management in a noisy and fragmented world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yun Tao
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA93117
- Institute of Bioinformatics, University of Georgia, GA30602
| | - Alan Hastings
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA95616
- Santa Fe Institute, NM87501
| | - Kevin D. Lafferty
- U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, CA93106
- Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA93117
| | - Ilkka Hanski
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki00014, Finland
| | - Otso Ovaskainen
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki00014, Finland
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, JyväskyläFI-40014, Finland
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, TrondheimN-7491, Norway
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Ahmad RA, Imron MA, Ramadona AL, Lathifah N, Azzahra F, Widyastuti K, Fuad A. Modeling social interaction and metapopulation mobility of the COVID-19 pandemic in main cities of highly populated Java Island, Indonesia: An agent-based modeling approach. Front Ecol Evol 2023. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.958651] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
IntroductionCoronavirus transmission is strongly influenced by human mobilities and interactions within and between different geographical regions. Human mobility within and between cities is motivated by several factors, including employment, cultural-driven, holidays, and daily routines.MethodWe developed a sustained metapopulation (SAMPAN) model, an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the effect of individual mobility and interaction behavior on the spreading of COVID-19 viruses across main cities on Java Island, Indonesia. The model considers social classes and social mixing affecting the mobility and interaction behavior within a sub-population of a city in the early pandemic. Travelers’ behavior represents the mobility among cities from central cities to other cities and commuting behavior from the surrounding area of each city.ResultsLocal sensitivity analysis using one factor at a time was performed to test the SAMPAN model, and we have identified critical parameters for the model. While validation was carried out for the Jakarta area, we are confident in implementing the model for a larger area with the concept of metapopulation dynamics. We included the area of Bogor, Depok, Bekasi, Bandung, Semarang, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, and Malang cities which have important roles in the COVID-19 pandemic spreading on this island.DiscussionOur SAMPAN model can simulate various waves during the first year of the pandemic caused by various phenomena of large social mobilities and interactions, particularly during religious occasions and long holidays.
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Laan E, Fox JW. An experimental test of the effects of dispersal and the paradox of enrichment on metapopulation persistence. OIKOS 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.06552] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Erin Laan
- Dept of Biological Sciences, Univ. of Calgary 2500 University Dr. NW Calgary AB T2N 1N4 Canada
| | - Jeremy W. Fox
- Dept of Biological Sciences, Univ. of Calgary 2500 University Dr. NW Calgary AB T2N 1N4 Canada
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Fernández N, Román J, Delibes M. Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 283:rspb.2015.2998. [PMID: 27053739 PMCID: PMC4843648 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.2998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2015] [Accepted: 03/14/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Néstor Fernández
- Department of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Spanish Council for Scientific Research EBD-CSIC, Seville 41092, Spain
| | - Jacinto Román
- Department of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Spanish Council for Scientific Research EBD-CSIC, Seville 41092, Spain
| | - Miguel Delibes
- Department of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Spanish Council for Scientific Research EBD-CSIC, Seville 41092, Spain
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De Roissart A, Wang S, Bonte D. Spatial and spatiotemporal variation in metapopulation structure affects population dynamics in a passively dispersing arthropod. J Anim Ecol 2015; 84:1565-74. [PMID: 25988264 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12400] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2014] [Accepted: 05/06/2015] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
The spatial and temporal variation in the availability of suitable habitat within metapopulations determines colonization-extinction events, regulates local population sizes and eventually affects local population and metapopulation stability. Insights into the impact of such a spatiotemporal variation on the local population and metapopulation dynamics are principally derived from classical metapopulation theory and have not been experimentally validated. By manipulating spatial structure in artificial metapopulations of the spider mite Tetranychus urticae, we test to which degree spatial (mainland-island metapopulations) and spatiotemporal variation (classical metapopulations) in habitat availability affects the dynamics of the metapopulations relative to systems where habitat is constantly available in time and space (patchy metapopulations). Our experiment demonstrates that (i) spatial variation in habitat availability decreases variance in metapopulation size and decreases density-dependent dispersal at the metapopulation level, while (ii) spatiotemporal variation in habitat availability increases patch extinction rates, decreases local population and metapopulation sizes and decreases density dependence in population growth rates. We found dispersal to be negatively density dependent and overall low in the spatial variable mainland-island metapopulation. This demographic variation subsequently impacts local and regional population dynamics and determines patterns of metapopulation stability. Both local and metapopulation-level variabilities are minimized in mainland-island metapopulations relative to classical and patchy ones.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annelies De Roissart
- Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Department Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, B-9000, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Shaopeng Wang
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Station d'Ecologie Expérimentale du CNRS, 09200, Moulis, France
| | - Dries Bonte
- Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Department Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, B-9000, Ghent, Belgium
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Govindan BN, Feng Z, DeWoody YD, Swihart RK. Intermediate disturbance in experimental landscapes improves persistence of beetle metapopulations. Ecology 2015; 96:728-36. [PMID: 26236869 DOI: 10.1890/14-0044.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Human-dominated landscapes often feature patches that fluctuate in suitability through space and time, but there is little experimental evidence relating the consequences of dynamic patches for species persistence. We used a spatially and temporally dynamic metapopulation model to assess and compare metapopulation capacity and persistence for red flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum) in experimental landscapes differentiated by resource structure, patch dynamics (destruction and restoration), and connectivity. High connectivity increased the colonization rate of beetles, but this effect was less pronounced in heterogeneous relative to homogeneous landscapes. Higher connectivity and faster patch dynamics increased extinction rates in landscapes. Lower connectivity promoted density-dependent emigration. Heterogeneous landscapes containing patches of different carrying capacity enhanced landscape-level occupancy probability. The highest metapopulation capacity and persistence was observed in landscapes with heterogeneous patches, low connectivity, and slow patch dynamics. Control landscapes with no patch dynamics exhibited rapid declines in abundance and approached extinction due to increased adult mortality in the matrix, higher pupal cannibalism by adults, and extremely low rates of exchange between remaining habitable patches. Our results highlight the role of intermediate patch dynamics, intermediate connectivity, and the nature of density dependence of emigration for persistence of species in heterogeneous landscapes. Our results also demonstrate the importance of incorporating local dynamics into the estimation of metapopulation capacity for conservation planning.
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Cronin JT, Reeve JD. An integrative approach to understanding host–parasitoid population dynamics in real landscapes. Basic Appl Ecol 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2014.01.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Strevens CMJ, Bonsall MB. The impact of alternative harvesting strategies in a resource-consumer metapopulation. J Appl Ecol 2010. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01907.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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Strevens C, Bonsall MB. Regional and local scale metapopulation dynamics in the interaction between Callosobruchus maculatus and Anisopteromalus calandrae. OIKOS 2010. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18275.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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Abstract
Background Spatial structure across fragmented landscapes can enhance regional population persistence by promoting local “rescue effects.” In small, vulnerable populations, where chance or random events between individuals may have disproportionately large effects on species interactions, such local processes are particularly important. However, existing theory often only describes the dynamics of metapopulations at regional scales, neglecting the role of multispecies population dynamics within habitat patches. Findings By coupling analysis across spatial scales we quantified the interaction between local scale population regulation, regional dispersal and noise processes in the dynamics of experimental host-parasitoid metapopulations. We find that increasing community complexity increases negative correlation between local population dynamics. A potential mechanism underpinning this finding was explored using a simple population dynamic model. Conclusions Our results suggest a paradox: parasitism, whilst clearly damaging to hosts at the individual level, reduces extinction risk at the population level.
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Abstract
Infectious disease influences the dynamics of host populations and the structure of species communities via impacts on host demography. Species that share infectious diseases are well-known to interact indirectly through the process of apparent competition, but there has been little attention given to the role of vectors in these indirect interactions. Here we explore how vector-borne disease and host-vector interactions can drive apparent competitive interactions. We show that different facets of the ecology associated with vector-host-host interactions affect the structure of the three-species assemblage. Crucially, the patterns associated with invasion of alternative hosts, the spread of the infectious disease by the vector, and the dynamics of the community interactions are influenced by the mode of transmission. We highlight the role of alternative hosts on disease amplification, dilution and magnification and discuss the results with reference to recent developments in apparent competition and community structure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael B. Bonsall
- Mathematical Ecology Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford
- St. Peter’s College, New Inn Hall Street
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Oliver M, Luque-Larena JJ, Lambin X. Do rabbits eat voles? Apparent competition, habitat heterogeneity and large-scale coexistence under mink predation. Ecol Lett 2009; 12:1201-9. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01375.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Hunt JJFG, Bonsall MB. The effects of colonization, extinction and competition on co-existence in metacommunities. J Anim Ecol 2009; 78:866-79. [PMID: 19302319 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01532.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
1. The co-existence of competitors in heterogeneous landscapes depends on the processes of colonization, extinction and spatial scale. In this study, we explore the metapopulation dynamics of competitive interactions. 2. Rather than simply evaluating the outcome of interspecific competition in the traditional manner, we focus on both the local population dynamic effects and the regional metapopulation processes affecting species co-existence. 3. We develop a theoretical model of regional co-existence to generate a set of predictions on the patterns of colonization necessary for co-existence and the regional processes that can lead to competitive exclusion. We empirically test these predictions using metacommunity microcosms of the interaction between two bruchid beetles (Callosobruchus chinensis, Callosobruchus maculatus). 4. Using well-replicated time series of the interaction between the bruchids and statistical methods of model fitting, we show how the qualitative and quantitative pattern of interspecific competition between the bruchid beetles is shaped by the structure of the metacommunity. 5. In unlimited dispersal metacommunities, the global exclusion of the inferior competitor is shown to be influenced more by the processes associated with extinction rather than low colonization ability. In restricted dispersal metacommunities, we show how the co-existence of competitors in a spatially heterogeneous habitat (patches connected through limited dispersal) is affected by Allee effects and life-history [colonization (dispersal) - competition] trade-offs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia J F G Hunt
- Mathematical Ecology Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford
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Bull JC, Bonsall MB. Overcompensatory population dynamic responses to environmental stochasticity. J Anim Ecol 2008; 77:1296-305. [PMID: 18647195 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01449.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
1. To quantify the interactions between density-dependent, population regulation and density-independent limitation, we studied the time-series dynamics of an experimental laboratory insect microcosm system in which both environmental noise and resource limitation were manipulated. 2. A hierarchical Bayesian state-space approach is presented through which it is feasible to capture all sources of uncertainty, including observation error to accurately quantify the density dependence operating on the dynamics. 3. The regulatory processes underpinning the dynamics of two different bruchid beetles (Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis) are principally determined by environmental conditions, with fluctuations in abundance explained in terms of changes in overcompensatory dynamics and stochastic processes. 4. A general, stochastic population model is developed to explore the link between abundance fluctuations and the interaction between density dependence and noise. Taking account of time-lags in population regulation can substantially increase predicted population fluctuations resulting from underlying noise processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- James C Bull
- Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
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