Exploring plasticity in the wild: laying date-temperature reaction norms in the common gull Larus canus

Spring temperature drives phenotypic selection on plasticity of flowering time

In seasonal environments, a high responsiveness of development to increasing temperatures in spring can infer benefits in terms of a longer growing season, but also costs in terms of an increased risk of facing unfavourable weather conditions. Still, we know little about how climatic conditions influence the optimal plastic response. Using 22 years of field observations for the perennial forest herb Lathyrus vernus, we assessed phenotypic selection on among-individual variation in reaction norms of flowering time to spring temperature, and examined if among-year variation in selection on plasticity was associated with spring temperature conditions. We found significant among-individual variation in mean flowering time and flowering time plasticity, and that plants that flowered earlier also had a more plastic flowering time. Selection favoured individuals with an earlier mean flowering time and a lower thermal plasticity of flowering time. Less plastic individuals were more strongly favoured in colder springs, indicating that spring temperature influenced optimal flowering time plasticity. Our results show how selection on plasticity can be linked to climatic conditions, and illustrate how we can understand and predict evolutionary responses of organisms to changing environmental conditions.

Estimating heritability of song considering within-individual variance in a wild songbird: The collared flycatcher

Heritable genetic variation is a prerequisite for adaptive evolution; however, our knowledge about the heritability of plastic traits, such as behaviors, is scarce, especially in wild populations. In this study, we investigated the heritability of song traits in the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis), a small oscine passerine with complex songs involved in sexual selection. We recorded the songs of 81 males in a natural population and obtained various measures describing the frequency, temporal organization, and complexity of each song. As we had multiple songs from each individual, we were able to statistically account for the first time for the effect of within-individual variance on the heritability of song. Heritability was calculated from the variance estimates of animal models relying on a genetic similarity matrix based on Single Nucleotide Polymorphism screening. Overall, we found small additive genetic variance and heritability values in all song traits, highlighting the role of environmental factors in shaping bird song.

Plasticity in female timing may explain earlier breeding in a North American songbird

Many species have shifted their breeding phenology in response to climate change. Identifying the magnitude of phenological shifts and whether climate-mediated selection drives these shifts is key for determining species' resilience to climate change. Birds are a strong model for studying phenological shifts due to numerous long-term research studies; however, generalities pertaining to drivers of phenological shifts will emerge only as we add study species that differ in life history and geography. We investigated 32 years of reproductive timing in a non-migratory population of dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis). We predicted that plasticity in reproductive timing would allow females to breed earlier in warmer springs. We also predicted that selection would favour earlier breeding and asked whether the temperatures throughout the breeding season would predict the strength of selection. To test these predictions, we examined temporal changes in the annual median date for reproductive onset (i.e., first egg date) and we used a sliding window analysis to identify spring temperatures driving these patterns. Next, we explored plasticity in reproductive timing and asked whether selection favoured earlier breeding. Lastly, we used a sliding window analysis to identify the time during the breeding season that temperature was most associated with selection favouring earlier breeding. First egg dates occurred earlier over time and strongly covaried with April temperatures. Further, individual females that bred in more than one year, typically bred earlier in warmer Aprils, exhibiting plastic responses to April temperature. We also found significant overall selection favouring earlier breeding (i.e., higher relative fitness with earlier first egg dates) and variation in selection for earlier breeding over time. However, temperature across diverse climatic windows did not predict the strength of selection. Our findings provide further evidence for the role of phenotypic plasticity in shifting phenology in response to earlier springs. We also provide evidence for the role of selection favouring earlier breeding, regardless of temperature, thus setting the stage for adaptive changes in female breeding phenology. We suggest for multi-brooded birds that advancing first egg dates likely increases the length of the breeding season, and therefore, reproductive success.

A reaction norm framework for the evolution of learning: how cumulative experience shapes phenotypic plasticity

Learning is a familiar process to most people, but it currently lacks a fully developed theoretical position within evolutionary biology. Learning (memory and forgetting) involves adjustments in behaviour in response to cumulative sequences of prior experiences or exposures to environmental cues. We therefore suggest that all forms of learning (and some similar biological phenomena in development, aging, acquired immunity and acclimation) can usefully be viewed as special cases of phenotypic plasticity, and formally modelled by expanding the concept of reaction norms to include additional environmental dimensions quantifying sequences of cumulative experience (learning) and the time delays between events (forgetting). Memory therefore represents just one of a number of different internal neurological, physiological, hormonal and anatomical ‘states’ that mediate the carry‐over effects of cumulative environmental experiences on phenotypes across different time periods. The mathematical and graphical conceptualisation of learning as plasticity within a reaction norm framework can easily accommodate a range of different ecological scenarios, closely linking statistical estimates with biological processes. Learning and non‐learning plasticity interact whenever cumulative prior experience causes a modification in the reaction norm (a) elevation [mean phenotype], (b) slope [responsiveness], (c) environmental estimate error [informational memory] and/or (d) phenotypic precision [skill acquisition]. Innovation and learning new contingencies in novel (laboratory) environments can also be accommodated within this approach. A common reaction norm approach should thus encourage productive cross‐fertilisation of ideas between traditional studies of learning and phenotypic plasticity. As an example, we model the evolution of plasticity with and without learning under different levels of environmental estimation error to show how learning works as a specific adaptation promoting phenotypic plasticity in temporally autocorrelated environments. Our reaction norm framework for learning and analogous biological processes provides a conceptual and mathematical structure aimed at usefully stimulating future theoretical and empirical investigations into the evolution of plasticity across a wider range of ecological contexts, while providing new interdisciplinary connections regarding learning mechanisms.

Genotype-by-environment interactions modulate the rate of microevolution in reproductive timing in humans

Evidence from natural populations shows that changes in environmental conditions can cause rapid modifications in the evolutionary potential of phenotypes, partly through genotype-by-environment interactions (G×E). Therefore, the overall rate of microevolution should depend on fluctuations in environmental conditions, even when directional selection is sustained over several generations. We tested this hypothesis in a preindustrial human population that experienced a microevolutionary change in age at first reproduction (AFR) of mothers, using the annual infant mortality rate (IMR) as an indicator of environmental conditions during their early life. Using quantitative genetics analyses, we found that G×Es explained a nonnegligible fraction of the additive genetic variance in AFR and in relative fitness, as well as of the genetic covariance between AFR and fitness (i.e., the Robertson-Price covariance). The covariance was stronger for individuals exposed to unfavorable early-life environmental conditions. Our results unravel the presence of G×Es in an important life history trait and its impact on the rate of microevolution, which appears to have been sensitive to short-term fluctuations in local environmental conditions.

Long-term observation of the egg and chick size in the nests of Larus ichthyaetus in Lake Chany, Russia

This data set describes the long-term observation and morphological study of the eggs of the great black-headed gull Larus ichthyaetus in the gull nesting colonies on the islands of Lake Chany. Lake Chany is located in the Baraba forest-steppe of the West Siberian Plain, Russia, between the Ob and Irtish rivers. Lake Chany is protected by the Ramsar Convention on the Wetlands of International Importance, indicating that the lake is an important site for migratory birds, including L. ichthyaetus. This dataset contains the size and fate of all eggs, as well as the size of hatched chicks in 1164 observed L. ichthyaetus nests from 1993 to 2003.

Measurement(s)	size
Technology Type(s)	Observation
Factor Type(s)	egg and chick size
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Larus ichthyaetus
Sample Characteristic - Environment	lake
Sample Characteristic - Location	Russia

Evolutionary trade-offs between heat and cold tolerance limit responses to fluctuating climates

The evolutionary potential of species to cope with short-term temperature fluctuations during reproduction is critical to predicting responses to future climate change. Despite this, vertebrate research has focused on reproduction under high or low temperatures in relatively stable temperate climates. Here, we characterize the genetic basis of reproductive thermal tolerance to temperature fluctuations in the ostrich, which lives in variable environments in tropical and subtropical Africa. Both heat and cold tolerance were under selection and heritable, indicating the potential for evolutionary responses to mean temperature change. However, we found evidence for a negative, genetic correlation between heat and cold tolerance that should limit the potential for adaptation to fluctuating temperatures. Genetic constraints between heat and cold tolerance appear a crucial, yet underappreciated, factor influencing responses to climate change.

Egg-laying increases body temperature to an annual maximum in a wild bird

Most birds, unlike reptiles, lay eggs successively to form a full clutch. During egg-laying, birds are highly secretive and prone to disturbance and predation. Using multisensor data loggers, we show that average daily body temperature during egg-laying is significantly increased (1 °C) in wild eider ducks (Somateria mollissima). Strikingly, this increase corresponds to the annual maximum body temperature (40.7 °C), representing a severe annual thermogenic challenge. This egg-laying-induced rise in body temperature may prove to be a common feature of wild birds and could be caused by habitat-related thermoregulatory adjustments and hormonal modulation of reproduction. We conclude our findings with new perspectives of the benefits of high body temperature associated with egg-laying of birds and the potential effect of heat stress that may occur with the future advent of heatwaves.

Differential effects of steroid hormones on levels of broad-sense heritability in a wild bird: possible mechanism of environment × genetic variance interaction?

Genetic variation is one of the key concepts in evolutionary biology and an important prerequisite of evolutionary change. However, we know very little about processes that modulate its levels in wild populations. In particular, we still are to understand why genetic variances often depend on environmental conditions. One of possible environment-sensitive modulators of observed levels of genetic variance are maternal effects. In this study we attempt to experimentally test the hypothesis that maternally transmitted agents (e.g. hormones) may influence the expression of genetic variance in quantitative traits in the offspring. We manipulated the levels of steroid hormones (testosterone and corticosterone) in eggs laid by blue tits in a wild population. Our experimental setup allowed for full crossing of genetic and rearing effects with the experimental manipulation. We observed that birds treated with corticosterone exhibited a significant decrease in broad-sense genetic variance of tarsus length, and an increase in this component in body mass on the 2nd day post-hatching. Our study indicates, that maternally transmitted substances such as hormones may have measurable impact on the levels of genetic variance and hence, on the evolutionary potential of quantitative traits.

Gut microbiome heritability is nearly universal but environmentally contingent

Relatives have more similar gut microbiomes than nonrelatives, but the degree to which this similarity results from shared genotypes versus shared environments has been controversial. Here, we leveraged 16,234 gut microbiome profiles, collected over 14 years from 585 wild baboons, to reveal that host genetic effects on the gut microbiome are nearly universal. Controlling for diet, age, and socioecological variation, 97% of microbiome phenotypes were significantly heritable, including several reported as heritable in humans. Heritability was typically low (mean = 0.068) but was systematically greater in the dry season, with low diet diversity, and in older hosts. We show that longitudinal profiles and large sample sizes are crucial to quantifying microbiome heritability, and indicate scope for selection on microbiome characteristics as a host phenotype.

Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season

Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long-standing quest in ecology, with ever-increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long-term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to make a priori choices. In this study, we first synthesize the literature to assess current a priori choices employed in studies performed on 104 plant species that link climate drivers with demographic responses. Second, we use a sliding-window approach to investigate which combination of climate drivers and temporal window have the best predictive ability for vital rates of four perennial plant species that each have over a decade of demographic data (Helianthella quinquenervis, Frasera speciosa, Cylindriopuntia imbricata, and Cryptantha flava). Our literature review shows that most studies consider time windows in only the year preceding the measurement of the vital rate(s) of interest, and focus on annual or growing season temporal scales. In contrast, our sliding-window analysis shows that in only four out of 13 vital rates the selected climate drivers have time windows that align with, or are similar to, the growing season. For many vital rates, the best window lagged more than 1 year and up to 4 years before the measurement of the vital rate. Our results demonstrate that for the vital rates of these four species, climate drivers that are lagged or outside of the growing season are the norm. Our study suggests that considering climatic predictors that fall outside of the most recent growing season will improve our understanding of how climate affects population dynamics.

Most published selection gradients are underestimated: Why this is and how to fix it

Ecologists and evolutionary biologists routinely estimate selection gradients. Most researchers seek to quantify selection on individual phenotypes, regardless of whether fixed or repeatedly expressed traits are studied. Selection gradients estimated to address such questions are attenuated unless analyses account for measurement error and biological sources of within-individual variation. Estimates of standardized selection gradients published in Evolution between 2010 and 2019 were primarily based on traits measured once (59% of 325 estimates). We show that those are attenuated: bias increases with decreasing repeatability but differently for linear versus nonlinear gradients. Others derived individual-mean trait values prior to analyses (41%), typically using few repeats per individual, which does not remove bias. We evaluated three solutions, all requiring repeated measures: (i) correcting gradients derived from classic models using estimates of trait correlations and repeatabilities, (ii) multivariate mixed-effects models, previously used for estimating linear gradients (seven estimates, 2%), which we expand to nonlinear analyses, and (iii) errors-in-variables models that account for within-individual variance, and are rarely used in selection studies. All approaches produced accurate estimates regardless of repeatability and type of gradient, however, errors-in-variables models produced more precise estimates and may thus be preferable.

Extreme temperatures compromise male and female fertility in a large desert bird

Temperature has a crucial influence on the places where species can survive and reproduce. Past research has primarily focused on survival, making it unclear if temperature fluctuations constrain reproductive success, and if so whether populations harbour the potential to respond to climatic shifts. Here, using two decades of data from a large experimental breeding programme of the iconic ostrich (Struthio camelus) in South Africa, we show that the number of eggs females laid and the number of sperm males produced were highly sensitive to natural temperature extremes (ranging from -5 °C to 45 °C). This resulted in reductions in reproductive success of up to 44% with 5 °C deviations from their thermal optimum. In contrast, gamete quality was largely unaffected by temperature. Extreme temperatures also did not expose trade-offs between gametic traits. Instead, some females appeared to invest more in reproducing at high temperatures, which may facilitate responses to climate change. These results show that the robustness of fertility to temperature fluctuations, and not just temperature increases, is a critical aspect of species persistence in regions predicted to undergo the greatest change in climate volatility.

Density-Dependent Adaptive Topography in a Small Passerine Bird, the Collared Flycatcher

AbstractAdaptive topography is a central concept in evolutionary biology, describing how the mean fitness of a population changes with gene frequencies or mean phenotypes. We use expected population size as a quantity to be maximized by natural selection to show that selection on pairwise combinations of reproductive traits of collared flycatchers caused by fluctuations in population size generated an adaptive topography with distinct peaks often located at intermediate phenotypes. This occurred because r- and K-selection made phenotypes favored at small densities different from those with higher fitness at population sizes close to the carrying capacity K. Fitness decreased rapidly with a delay in the timing of egg laying, with a density-dependent effect especially occurring among early-laying females. The number of fledglings maximizing fitness was larger at small population sizes than when close to K. Finally, there was directional selection for large fledglings independent of population size. We suggest that these patterns can be explained by increased competition for some limiting resources or access to favorable nest sites at high population densities. Thus, r- and K-selection based on expected population size as an evolutionary maximization criterion may influence life-history evolution and constrain the selective responses to changes in the environment.

Decoupling the effects of food and density on life-history plasticity of wild animals using field experiments: Insights from the steward who sits in the shadow of its tail, the North American red squirrel

Long-term studies of wild animals provide the opportunity to investigate how phenotypic plasticity is used to cope with environmental fluctuations and how the relationships between phenotypes and fitness can be dependent upon the ecological context. Many previous studies have only investigated life-history plasticity in response to changes in temperature, yet wild animals often experience multiple environmental fluctuations simultaneously. This requires field experiments to decouple which ecological factor induces plasticity in fitness-relevant traits to better understand their population-level responses to those environmental fluctuations. For the past 32 years, we have conducted a long-term integrative study of individually marked North American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus Erxleben in the Yukon, Canada. We have used multi-year field experiments to examine the physiological and life-history responses of individual red squirrels to fluctuations in food abundance and conspecific density. Our long-term observational study and field experiments show that squirrels can anticipate increases in food availability and density, thereby decoupling the usual pattern where animals respond to, rather than anticipate, an ecological change. As in many other study systems, ecological factors that can induce plasticity (such as food and density) covary. However, our field experiments that manipulate food availability and social cues of density (frequency of territorial vocalizations) indicate that increases in social (acoustic) cues of density in the absence of additional food can induce similar life-history plasticity, as does experimental food supplementation. Changes in the levels of metabolic hormones (glucocorticoids) in response to variation in food and density are one mechanism that seems to induce this adaptive life-history plasticity. Although we have not yet investigated the energetic response of squirrels to elevated density or its association with life-history plasticity, energetics research in red squirrels has overturned several standard pillars of knowledge in physiological ecology. We show how a tractable model species combined with integrative studies can reveal how animals cope with resource fluctuations through life-history plasticity.

Exploring causal components of plasticity in grey seal birthdates: Effects of intrinsic traits, demography, and climate

Change in breeding phenology is often a response to environmental forcing, but less is known of the mechanism underlying such changes and their fitness consequences. Here, we report on changes in the breeding phenology from a 27-year longitudinal study (1991-2017) of individually marked, known-aged grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada. We used generalized linear mixed models and a 3-step process to develop a model that includes interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic covariates and to test hypotheses about the influence of fixed factors (maternal age, parity, previous reproductive success, pup sex, colony density, Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Sea Surface Temperature) and a random factor (female identity) on parturition dates. We also examined the consequences of the shift in birthdates on maternal energy allocation in offspring as measured by pup weaning mass. Birthdates were known for 2,768 pups of 660 known-age females. For 494 females with ≥2 parturition dates, repeatability as measured by the intraclass correlation was high (mean = 0.66). 87% of the variation in birthdates was explained by a mixed-effects model that included intrinsic and extrinsic fixed effects. Most of the explained variation was associated with the random effect of female identity. Parity was the most important intrinsic fixed effect, with inexperienced mothers giving birth later in the season than multiparous females. Over almost 3 decades, mean birthdates advanced by 15 days. The mixed model with intrinsic effects and population size, the detrended AMO from the previous year and mean NAO in the previous 3 years explained 80% of the variation with 21% of variation from the fixed effects. Both primiparous and multiparous individuals responded to the climate forcing, and there was strong evidence for heterogeneity in the response. Nevertheless, the shift in birthdates did not impact pup weaning mass.

Quantitative genetics of the use of conspecific and heterospecific social cues for breeding site choice

Social information use for decision‐making is common and affects ecological and evolutionary processes, including social aggregation, species coexistence, and cultural evolution. Despite increasing ecological knowledge on social information use, very little is known about its genetic basis and therefore its evolutionary potential. Genetic variation in a trait affecting an individual's social and nonsocial environment may have important implications for population dynamics, interspecific interactions, and, for expression of other, environmentally plastic traits. We estimated repeatability, additive genetic variance, and heritability of the use of conspecific and heterospecific social cues (abundance and breeding success) for breeding site choice in a population of wild collared flycatchers Ficedula albicollis. Repeatability was found for two social cues: previous year conspecific breeding success and previous year heterospecific abundance. Yet, additive genetic variances for these two social cues, and thus heritabilities, were low. This suggests that most of the phenotypic variation in the use of social cues and resulting conspecific and heterospecific social environment experienced by individuals in this population stems from phenotypic plasticity. Given the important role of social information use on ecological and evolutionary processes, more studies on genetic versus environmental determinism of social information use are needed.

Quantifying individual variation in reaction norms: Mind the residual

Phenotypic plasticity is a central topic in ecology and evolution. Individuals may differ in the degree of plasticity (individual-by-environment interaction (I × E)), which has implications for the capacity of populations to respond to selection. Random regression models (RRMs) are a popular tool to study I × E in behavioural or life-history traits, yet evidence for I × E is mixed, differing between species, populations, and even between studies on the same population. One important source of discrepancies between studies is the treatment of heterogeneity in residual variance (heteroscedasticity). To date, there seems to be no collective awareness among ecologists of its influence on the estimation of I × E or a consensus on how to best model it. We performed RRMs with differing residual variance structures on simulated data with varying degrees of heteroscedasticity and plasticity, sample size and environmental variability to test how RRMs would perform under each scenario. The residual structure in the RRMs affected the precision of estimates of simulated I × E as well as statistical power, with substantial lack of precision and high false-positive rates when sample size, environmental variability and plasticity were small. We show that model comparison using information criteria can be used to choose among residual structures and reinforce this point by analysis of real data of two study populations of great tits (Parus major). We provide guidelines that can be used by biologists studying I × E that, ultimately, should lead to a reduction in bias in the literature concerning the statistical evidence and the reported magnitude of variation in plasticity.

Between- and Within-Individual Variation of Maternal Thyroid Hormone Deposition in Wild Great Tits (Parus major)

Maternal hormones are often considered a mediator of anticipatory maternal effects; namely, mothers adjust maternal hormone transfer to prepare the offspring for the anticipated environment. The flexibility for mothers to adjust hormone transfer is therefore a prerequisite for such anticipatory maternal effects. Nevertheless, previous studies have focused only on the average differences of maternal hormone transfer between groups and neglected the substantial individual variation, despite the fact that individual plasticity in maternal hormone transfer is actually the central assumption. In this study, we studied the between- and within-individual variation of maternal thyroid hormones (THs) in egg yolk of wild great tits (Parus major) and estimated the individual plasticity of maternal yolk THs across environmental temperature, clutch initiation dates, and egg laying order using linear mixed effects models. Interestingly, our models provide statistical evidence that the two main THs-the main biologically active hormone T3 and T4, which is mostly considered a prohormone-exhibited different variation patterns. Yolk T3 showed significant between-individual variation on the average levels, in line with its previously reported moderate heritability. Yolk T4, however, showed significant between-clutch variation in the pattern over the laying sequence, suggesting a great within-individual plasticity. Our findings suggest that the role and function of the hormone within the endocrine axis likely influences its flexibility to respond to environmental change. Whether the flexibility of T4 deposition brings a fitness advantage should be examined along with its potential effects on offspring, which remain to be further investigated.

Evidence for Selection-by-Environment but Not Genotype-by-Environment Interactions for Fitness-Related Traits in a Wild Mammal Population

How do environmental conditions influence selection and genetic variation in wild populations? There is widespread evidence for selection-by-environment interactions (S*E), but we reviewed studies of natural populations estimating the extent of genotype-by-environment interactions (G*E) in response to natural variation in environmental conditions and found that evidence for G*E appears to be rare within single populations in the wild. Studies estimating the simultaneous impact of environmental variation on both selection and genetic variation are especially scarce. Here, we used 24 years of data collected from a wild Soay sheep population to quantify how an important environmental variable, population density, impacts upon (1) selection through annual contribution to fitness and (2) expression of genetic variation, in six morphological and life history traits: body weight, hind leg length, parasite burden, horn length, horn growth, and testicular circumference. Our results supported the existence of S*E: selection was stronger in years of higher population density for all traits apart from horn growth, with directional selection being stronger under more adverse conditions. Quantitative genetic models revealed significant additive genetic variance for body weight, leg length, parasite burden, horn length, and testes size, but not for horn growth or our measure of annual fitness. However, random regression models found variation between individuals in their responses to the environment in only three traits, and did not support the presence of G*E for any trait. Our analyses of St Kilda Soay sheep data thus concurs with our cross-study review that, while natural environmental variation within a population can profoundly alter the strength of selection on phenotypic traits, there is less evidence for its effect on the expression of genetic variance in the wild.

Plasticity results in delayed breeding in a long-distant migrant seabird

A major question for conservationists and evolutionary biologists is whether natural populations can adapt to rapid environmental change through micro-evolution or phenotypic plasticity. Making use of 17 years of data from a colony of a long-distant migratory seabird, the common tern (Sterna hirundo), we examined phenotypic plasticity and the evolutionary potential of breeding phenology, a key reproductive trait. We found that laying date was strongly heritable (0.27 ± 0.09) and under significant fecundity selection for earlier laying. Paradoxically, and in contrast to patterns observed in most songbird populations, laying date became delayed over the study period, by about 5 days. The discrepancy between the observed changes and those predicted from selection on laying date was explained by substantial phenotypic plasticity. The plastic response in laying date did not vary significantly among individuals. Exploration of climatic factors showed individual responses to the mean sea surface temperature in Senegal in December prior to breeding: Common terns laid later following warmer winters in Senegal. For each 1°C of warming of the sea surface in Senegal, common terns delayed their laying date in northern Germany by 6.7 days. This suggests that warmer waters provide poorer wintering resources. We therefore found that substantial plastic response to wintering conditions can oppose natural selection, perhaps constraining adaptation.

Phenotypic plasticity of nest timing in a post-glacial landscape: how do reptiles adapt to seasonal time constraints?

Life histories evolve in response to constraints on the time available for growth and development. Nesting date and its plasticity in response to spring temperature may therefore be important components of fitness in oviparous ectotherms near their northern range limit, as reproducing early provides more time for embryos to complete development before winter. We used data collected over several decades to compare air temperature and nest date plasticity in populations of painted turtles and snapping turtles from a relatively warm environment (southeastern Michigan) near the southern extent of the last glacial maximum to a relatively cool environment (central Ontario) near the northern extent of post-glacial recolonization. For painted turtles, population-level differences in reaction norm elevation for two phenological traits were consistent with adaptation to time constraints, but no differences in reaction norm slopes were observed. For snapping turtle populations, the difference in reaction norm elevation for a single phenological trait was in the opposite direction of what was expected under adaptation to time constraints, and no difference in reaction norm slope was observed. Finally, among-individual variation in individual plasticity for nesting date was detected only in the northern population of snapping turtles, suggesting that reaction norms are less canalized in this northern population. Overall, we observed evidence of phenological adaptation, and possibly maladaptation, to time constraints in long-lived reptiles. Where present, (mal)adaptation occurred by virtue of differences in reaction norm elevation, not reaction norm slope. Glacial history, generation time, and genetic constraint may all play an important role in the evolution of phenological timing and its plasticity in long-lived reptiles.

climwin: An R Toolbox for Climate Window Analysis

When studying the impacts of climate change, there is a tendency to select climate data from a small set of arbitrary time periods or climate windows (e.g., spring temperature). However, these arbitrary windows may not encompass the strongest periods of climatic sensitivity and may lead to erroneous biological interpretations. Therefore, there is a need to consider a wider range of climate windows to better predict the impacts of future climate change. We introduce the R package climwin that provides a number of methods to test the effect of different climate windows on a chosen response variable and compare these windows to identify potential climate signals. climwin extracts the relevant data for each possible climate window and uses this data to fit a statistical model, the structure of which is chosen by the user. Models are then compared using an information criteria approach. This allows users to determine how well each window explains variation in the response variable and compare model support between windows. climwin also contains methods to detect type I and II errors, which are often a problem with this type of exploratory analysis. This article presents the statistical framework and technical details behind the climwin package and demonstrates the applicability of the method with a number of worked examples.

Random regression models for the prediction of days to weight, ultrasound rib eye area, and ultrasound back fat depth in beef cattle

Genetic evaluation research designed to reduce the required days to a specified end point has received very little attention in pertinent scientific literature, given that its economic importance was first discussed in 1957. There are many production scenarios in today's beef industry, making a prediction for the required number of days to a single end point a suboptimal option. Random regression is an attractive alternative to calculate days to weight (DTW), days to ultrasound back fat (DTUBF), and days to ultrasound rib eye area (DTUREA) genetic predictions that could overcome weaknesses of a single end point prediction. The objective of this study was to develop random regression approaches for the prediction of the DTW, DTUREA, and DTUBF. Data were obtained from the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Research Centre, Lethbridge, AB, Canada. Data consisted of records on 1,324 feedlot cattle spanning 1999 to 2007. Individual animals averaged 5.77 observations with weights, ultrasound rib eye area (UREA), ultrasound back fat depth (UBF), and ages ranging from 293 to 863 kg, 73.39 to 129.54 cm, 1.53 to 30.47 mm, and 276 to 519 d, respectively. Random regression models using Legendre polynomials were used to regress age of the individual on weight, UREA, and UBF. Fixed effects in the model included an overall fixed regression of age on end point (weight, UREA, and UBF) nested within breed to account for the mean relationship between age and weight as well as a contemporary group effect consisting of breed of the animal (Angus, Charolais, and Charolais sired), feedlot pen, and year of measure. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine the appropriate random polynomial order. Use of the quadratic polynomial did not account for any additional genetic variation in days for DTW ( > 0.11), for DTUREA ( > 0.18), and for DTUBF ( > 0.20) when compared with the linear random polynomial. Heritability estimates from the linear random regression for DTW ranged from 0.54 to 0.74, corresponding to end points of 293 and 863 kg, respectively. Heritability for DTUREA ranged from 0.51 to 0.34 and for DTUBF ranged from 0.55 to 0.37. These estimates correspond to UREA end points of 35 and 125 cm and UBF end points of 1.53 and 30 mm, respectively. This range of heritability shows DTW, DTUREA, and DTUBF to be highly heritable and indicates that selection pressure aimed at reducing the number of days to reach a finish weight end point can result in genetic change given sufficient data.

Multidimensional environmental influences on timing of breeding in a tree swallow population facing climate change

Most phenological traits are extremely sensitive to current climate change, and advances in the timing of important life-history events have been observed in many species. In birds, phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature is thought to be the main mechanism underlying yearly adjustment in the timing of breeding. However, other factors could be important and interact to affect the levels of plastic responses between and/or within-individuals. Here, we use long-term individual-based data on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) to identify the spatial and environmental drivers affecting plasticity in laying date and to assess their importance at both population and individual levels. We found that laying date has advanced by 4.2 days over 10 years, and that it was mainly influenced by latitude and an interaction between spring temperature and breeder density. Analyses of individual plasticity showed that increases in temperature, but not in breeder density, resulted in within-individual advances in laying date. Our results suggest that females can adjust their laying date as a function of temperature, but that this adjustment will be partly constrained in habitats with lower breeder densities. Such potential constraint is especially worrying for the broad array of species already declining as a result of climate change.

Sand lizard (Lacerta agilis) phenology in a warming world

BACKGROUND

Present-day climate change has altered the phenology (the timing of periodic life cycle events) of many plant and animal populations worldwide. Some of these changes have been adaptive, leading to an increase in population fitness, whereas others have been associated with fitness decline. Representing short-term responses to an altered weather regime, hitherto observed changes are largely explained by phenotypic plasticity. However, to track climatically induced shifts in optimal phenotype as climate change proceeds, evolutionary capacity in key limiting climate- and fitness-related traits is likely to be crucial. In order to produce realistic predictions about the effects of climate change on species and populations, a main target for conservation biologists is thus to assess the potential of natural populations to respond by these two mechanisms. In this study we use a large 15-year dataset on an ectotherm model, the Swedish sand lizard (Lacerta agilis), to investigate how higher spring temperature is likely to affect oviposition timing in a high latitude population, a trait strongly linked to offspring fitness and survival.

RESULTS

With an interest in both the short- and potential long-term effect of rising temperatures, we applied a random regression model, which yields estimates of population-level plasticity and among-individual variation in the average, as well as the plastic, response to temperature. Population plasticity represents capacity for short-term adjustments whereas variation among individuals in a fitness-related trait indicates an opportunity for natural selection and hence for evolutionary adaptation. The analysis revealed both population-level plasticity and individual-level variation in average laying date. In contrast, we found no evidence for variation among females in their plastic responses to spring temperature, which could demonstrate a similarity in responses amongst females, but may also be due to a lack of statistical power to detect such an effect.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that climate warming may have positive fitness effects in this lizard population through an advancement of oviposition date. This prediction is consistent over shorter and potentially also longer time scales as the analysis revealed both population-level plasticity and individual-level variation in average laying date. However, the genetic basis for this variation would have to be examined in order to predict an evolutionary response.

Endocrine mechanisms, behavioral phenotypes and plasticity: known relationships and open questions

Behavior of wild vertebrate individuals can vary in response to environmental or social factors. Such within-individual behavioral variation is often mediated by hormonal mechanisms. Hormones also serve as a basis for among-individual variations in behavior including animal personalities and the degree of responsiveness to environmental and social stimuli. How do relationships between hormones and behavioral traits evolve to produce such behavioral diversity within and among individuals? Answering questions about evolutionary processes generating among-individual variation requires characterizing how specific hormones are related to variation in specific behavioral traits, whether observed hormonal variation is related to individual fitness and, whether hormonal traits are consistent (repeatable) aspects of an individual's phenotype. With respect to within-individual variation, we need to improve our insight into the nature of the quantitative relationships between hormones and the traits they regulate, which in turn will determine how they may mediate behavioral plasticity of individuals. To address these questions, we review the actions of two steroid hormones, corticosterone and testosterone, in mediating changes in vertebrate behavior, focusing primarily on birds. In the first part, we concentrate on among-individual variation and present examples for how variation in corticosterone concentrations can relate to behaviors such as exploration of novel environments and parental care. We then review studies on correlations between corticosterone variation and fitness, and on the repeatability over time of corticosterone concentrations. At the end of this section, we suggest that further progress in our understanding of evolutionary patterns in the hormonal regulation of behavior may require, as one major tool, reaction norm approaches to characterize hormonal phenotypes as well as their responses to environments.

In the second part, we discuss types of quantitative relationships between hormones and behavioral traits within individuals, using testosterone as an example. We review conceptual models for testosterone-behavior relationships and discuss the relevance of these models for within-individual plasticity in behavior. Next, we discuss approaches for testing the nature of quantitative relationships between testosterone and behavior, concluding that again reaction norm approaches might be a fruitful way forward.

We propose that an integration of new tools, especially of reaction norm approaches into the field of behavioral endocrinology will allow us to make significant progress in our understanding of the mechanisms, the functional implications and the evolution of hormone–behavior relationships that mediate variation both within and among individuals. This knowledge will be crucial in light of already ongoing habitat alterations due to global change, as it will allow us to evaluate the mechanisms as well as the capacity of wild populations to adjust hormonally-mediated behaviors to altered environmental conditions.

Contrasting effects of climate on juvenile body size in a Southern Hemisphere passerine bird

Despite extensive research on the topic, it has been difficult to reach general conclusions as to the effects of climate change on morphology in wild animals: in particular, the effects of warming temperatures have been associated with increases, decreases or stasis in body size in different populations. Here, we use a fine-scale analysis of associations between weather and offspring body size in a long-term study of a wild passerine bird, the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren, in south-eastern Australia to show that such variation in the direction of associations occurs even within a population. Over the past 26 years, our study population has experienced increased temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves and reduced rainfall - but the mean body mass of chicks has not changed. Despite the apparent stasis, mass was associated with weather across the previous year, but in multiple counteracting ways. Firstly, (i) chick mass was negatively associated with extremely recent heatwaves, but there also positive associations with (ii) higher maximum temperatures and (iii) higher rainfall, both occurring in a period prior to and during the nesting period, and finally (iv) a longer-term negative association with higher maximum temperatures following the previous breeding season. Our results illustrate how a morphological trait may be affected by both short- and long-term effects of the same weather variable at multiple times of the year and that these effects may act in different directions. We also show that climate within the relevant time windows may not be changing in the same way, such that overall long-term temporal trends in body size may be minimal. Such complexity means that analytical approaches that search for a single 'best' window for one particular weather variable may miss other relevant information, and is also likely to make analyses of phenotypic plasticity and prediction of longer-term population dynamics difficult.

Genes and quantitative genetic variation involved with senescence in cells, organs, and the whole plant

Senescence, the deterioration of morphological, physiological, and reproductive functions with age that ends with the death of the organism, was widely studied in plants. Genes were identified that are linked to the deterioration of cells, organs and the whole plant. It is, however, unclear whether those genes are the source of age dependent deterioration or get activated to regulate such deterioration. Furthermore, it is also unclear whether such genes are active as a direct consequence of age or because they are specifically involved in some developmental stages. At the individual level, it is the relationship between quantitative genetic variation, and age that can be used to detect the genetic signature of senescence. Surprisingly, the latter approach was only scarcely applied to plants. This may be the consequence of the demanding requirements for such approaches and/or the fact that most research interest was directed toward plants that avoid senescence. Here, I review those aspects in turn and call for an integrative genetic theory of senescence in plants. Such conceptual development would have implications for the management of plant genetic resources and generate progress on fundamental questions raised by aging research.

Mid-winter temperatures, not spring temperatures, predict breeding phenology in the European starling Sturnus vulgaris

In many species, empirical data suggest that temperatures less than 1 month before breeding strongly influence laying date, consistent with predictions that short lag times between cue and response are more reliable, decreasing the chance of mismatch with prey. Here we show in European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) that mid-winter temperature ca 50-90 days before laying (8 January-22 February) strongly (r (2) = 0.89) predicts annual variation in laying date. Mid-winter temperature also correlated highly with relative clutch size: birds laid later, but laid larger clutches, in years when mid-winter temperatures were lower. Despite a high degree of breeding synchrony (mean laying date 5-13 April = ±4 days; 80% of nests laid within 4.8 days within year), European starlings show strong date-dependent variation in clutch size and productivity, but this appears to be mediated by a different temporal mechanism for integration of supplemental cue (temperature) information. We suggest the relationship between mid-winter temperature and breeding phenology might be indirect with both components correlating with a third factor: temperature-dependent development of the starling's insect (tipulid) prey. Mid-winter temperatures might set the trajectory of growth and final biomass of tipulid larvae, with this temperature cue providing starlings with information on breeding season prey availability (though exactly how remains unknown).

The heritability of mating behaviour in a fly and its plasticity in response to the threat of sperm competition

Phenotypic plasticity is a key mechanism by which animals can cope with rapidly changeable environments, but the evolutionary lability of such plasticity remains unclear. The socio-sexual environment can fluctuate very rapidly, affecting both the frequency of mating opportunities and the level of competition males may face. Males of many species show plastic behavioural responses to changes in social environment, in particular the presence of rival males. For example, Drosophila pseudoobscura males respond to rivals by extending mating duration and increasing ejaculate size. Whilst such responses are predicted to be adaptive, the extent to which the magnitude of response is heritable, and hence selectable, is unknown. We investigated this using isofemale lines of the fruit fly D. pseudoobscura, estimating heritability of mating duration in males exposed or not to a rival, and any genetic basis to the change in this trait between these environments (i.e. degree of plasticity). The two populations differed in population sex ratio, and the presence of a sex ratio distorting selfish chromosome. We find that mating duration is heritable, but no evidence of population differences. We find no significant heritability of plasticity in mating duration in one population, but borderline significant heritability of plasticity in the second. This difference between populations might be related to the presence of the sex ratio distorting selfish gene in the latter population, but this will require investigation in additional populations to draw any conclusions. We suggest that there is scope for selection to produce an evolutionary response in the plasticity of mating duration in response to rivals in D. pseudoobscura, at least in some populations.

Climate change and timing of avian breeding and migration: evolutionary versus plastic changes

There are multiple observations around the globe showing that in many avian species, both the timing of migration and breeding have advanced, due to warmer springs. Here, we review the literature to disentangle the actions of evolutionary changes in response to selection induced by climate change versus changes due to individual plasticity, that is, the capacity of an individual to adjust its phenology to environmental variables. Within the abundant literature on climate change effects on bird phenology, only a small fraction of studies are based on individual data, yet individual data are required to quantify the relative importance of plastic versus evolutionary responses. While plasticity seems common and often adaptive, no study so far has provided direct evidence for an evolutionary response of bird phenology to current climate change. This assessment leads us to notice the alarming lack of tests for microevolutionary changes in bird phenology in response to climate change, in contrast with the abundant claims on this issue. In short, at present we cannot draw reliable conclusions on the processes underlying the observed patterns of advanced phenology in birds. Rapid improvements in techniques for gathering and analysing individual data offer exciting possibilities that should encourage research activity to fill this knowledge gap.