Separating spatial search and efficiency rates as components of predation risk

Restoration of linear disturbances from oil-and-gas exploration in boreal landscapes: How can network models help?

In western Canada, decades of oil-and-gas exploration have fragmented boreal landscapes with a dense network of linear forest disturbances (seismic lines). These seismic lines are implicated in the decline in wildlife populations that are adapted to function in unfragmented forest landscapes. In particular, anthropogenic disturbances have led to a decline of woodland caribou populations due to increasing predator access to core caribou habitat. Restoration of seismic lines aims to reduce the landscape fragmentation and stop the decline of caribou populations. However, planning restoration in complex landscapes can be challenging because it must account for a multitude of diverse aspects. To assist with restoration planning, we present a spatial network optimization approach that selects restoration locations in a fragmented landscape while addressing key environmental and logistical constraints. We applied the model to develop restoration scenarios in the Redrock-Prairie Creek caribou range in northwestern Alberta, Canada, which includes a combination of caribou habitat and active oil-and-gas and timber extraction areas. Our study applies network optimization at two distinct scales to address both the broad-scale restoration policy planning and project-level constraints at the level of individual forest sites. We first delineated a contiguous set of coarse-scale regions where restoration is most cost-effective and used this solution to solve a fine-scale network optimization model that addresses environmental and logistical planning constraints at the level of forest patches. Our two-tiered approach helps address the challenges of fine-scale spatial optimization of restoration activities. An additional coarse-scale optimization step finds a feasible starting solution for the fine-scale restoration problem, which serves to reduce the time to find an optimal solution. The added coarse-scale spatial constraints also make the fine-scale restoration solution align with the coarse-scale landscape features, which helps address the broad-scale restoration policies. The approach is generalizable and applicable to assist restoration planning in other regions fragmented by oil-and-gas activities.

Logging, linear features, and human infrastructure shape the spatial dynamics of wolf predation on an ungulate neonate

Humans are increasingly recognized as important players in predator-prey dynamics by modifying landscapes. This trend has been well-documented for large mammal communities in North American boreal forests: logging creates early seral forests that benefit ungulates such as white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), while the combination of infrastructure development and resource extraction practices generate linear features that allow predators such as wolves (Canis lupus) to travel and forage more efficiently throughout the landscape. Disturbances from recreational activities and residential development are other major sources of human activity in boreal ecosystems that may further alter wolf-ungulate dynamics. Here, we evaluate the influence that several major types of anthropogenic landscape modifications (timber harvest, linear features, and residential infrastructure) have on where and how wolves hunt ungulate neonates in a southern boreal forest ecosystem in Minnesota, USA. We demonstrate that each major anthropogenic disturbance significantly influences wolf predation of white-tailed deer fawns (n = 427 kill sites). In contrast with the "human shield hypothesis" that posits prey use human-modified areas as refuge, wolves killed fawns closer to residential buildings than expected based on spatial availability. Fawns were also killed within recently-logged areas more than expected. Concealment cover was higher at kill sites than random sites, suggesting wolves use senses other than vision, probably olfaction, to detect hidden fawns. Wolves showed strong selection for hunting along linear features, and kill sites were also closer to linear features than expected. We hypothesize that linear features facilitated wolf predation on fawns by allowing wolves to travel efficiently among high-quality prey patches (recently logged areas, near buildings), and also increase encounter rates with olfactory cues that allow them to detect hidden fawns. These findings provide novel insight into the strategies predators use to hunt ungulate neonates and the many ways human activity alters wolf-ungulate neonate predator-prey dynamics, which have remained elusive due to the challenges of locating sites where predators kill small prey. Our research has important management and conservation implications for wolf-ungulate systems subjected to anthropogenic pressures, particularly as the range of overlap between wolves and deer expands and appears to be altering food web dynamics in boreal ecosystems.

Evaluating the summer landscapes of predation risk and forage quality for elk (Cervus canadensis)

The recovery of carnivore populations in North American has consequences for trophic interactions and population dynamics of prey. In addition to direct effects on prey populations through killing, predators can influence prey behavior by imposing the risk of predation. The mechanisms through which patterns of space use by predators are linked to behavioral response by prey and nonconsumptive effects on prey population dynamics are poorly understood. Our goal was to characterize population- and individual-level patterns of resource selection by elk (Cervus canadensis) in response to risk of wolves (Canis lupus) and mountain lions (Puma concolor) and evaluate potential nonconsumptive effects of these behavioral patterns. We tested the hypothesis that individual elk risk-avoidance behavior during summer would result in exposure to lower-quality forage and reduced body fat and pregnancy rates. First, we evaluated individuals' second-order and third-order resource selection with a used-available sampling design. At the population level, we found evidence for a positive relationship between second- and third-order selection and forage, and an interaction between forage quality and mountain lion risk such that the relative probability of use at low mountain lion risk increased with forage quality but decreased at high risk at both orders of selection. We found no evidence of a population-level trade-off between forage quality and wolf risk. However, we found substantial among-individual heterogeneity in resource selection patterns such that population-level patterns were potentially misleading. We found no evidence that the diversity of individual resource selection patterns varied predictably with available resources, or that patterns of individual risk-related resource selection translated into biologically meaningful changes in body fat or pregnancy rates. Our work highlights the importance of evaluating individual responses to predation risk and predator hunting technique when assessing responses to predators and suggests nonconsumptive effects are not operating at a population scale in this system.

Cumulative effects of widespread landscape change alter predator-prey dynamics

Predator search efficiency can be enhanced by anthropogenic landscape change, leading to increased predator–prey encounters and subsequent prey population declines. Logging increases early successional vegetation, providing ungulate forage. This increased forage, however, is accompanied by linear feature networks that increase predator hunting efficiency by facilitating predator movement and increasing prey vulnerability. We used integrated step selection analyses to weigh support for multiple hypotheses representing the combined impact of logging features (cutblocks and linear features) on wolf (Canis lupus) movement and habitat selection in interior British Columbia. Further, we examine the relationship between logging and wolf kill-sites of moose (Alces alces) identified using spatiotemporal wolf location cluster analysis. Wolves selected for linear features, which increased their movement rates. New (0–8 years since harvest) cutblocks were selected by wolves. Moose kill-sites had a higher probability of occurring in areas with higher proportions of new and regenerating (9–24 years since harvest) cutblocks. The combined selection and movement responses by wolves to logging features, coupled with increased moose mortality sites associated with cutblocks, indicate that landscape change increases risk for moose. Cumulative effects of landscape change contribute to moose population declines, stressing the importance of cohesive management and restoration of anthropogenic features.

Gray wolf (Canis lupus) predation patterns following recent recolonization in a multi-predator, multi-prey system

Predator–prey interactions are among the most fundamental of ecological relationships. Recolonizing gray wolf (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758) populations present new challenges for wildlife management in multi-prey, multi-carnivore systems. We documented diet composition and kill rates for wolves in a recently recolonized area over winter and summer seasons (2014–2015). Elk (Cervus canadensis Erxleben, 1777) were the primary ungulate prey (63%) located at wolf kill sites. Deer (mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817)) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780))) were less prevalent than elk in wolf diets, but the amount of deer in diets (40%–50%) varied by pack and season. Juvenile elk were the most prevalent class of prey in wolf diets during summer (63.3%) and winter (36.3%), with adult elk (32.5%) observed nearly as often as juveniles in winter. Kill rates varied by season, with rates 2.3 times higher in summer (mean = 3.5 ungulates/week per pack) than winter (mean = 1.5 ungulates/week per pack), consistent with increased availability and use of neonate prey. Prey biomass acquisition did not vary by pack or season (summer = 243 kg/week per pack; winter = 182 kg/week per pack). Our study quantified predation patterns for a recolonizing wolf population, and patterns that we documented were similar to other multi-prey systems in North America.

Insect-mediated apparent competition between mammals in a boreal food web

While the important role of animal-mediated interactions in the top-down restructuring of plant communities is well documented, less is known of their ensuing repercussions at higher trophic levels. We demonstrate how typically decoupled ecological interactions may become intertwined such that the impact of an insect pest on forest structure and composition alters predator-prey interactions among large mammals. Specifically, we show how irruptions in a common, cyclic insect pest of the boreal forest, the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), modulated an indirect trophic interaction by initiating a flush in deciduous vegetation that benefited moose (Alces alces), in turn strengthening apparent competition between moose and threatened boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) via wolf (Canis lupus) predation. Critically, predation on caribou postoutbreak was exacerbated by human activity (salvage logging). We believe our observations of significant, large-scale reverberating consumer-producer-consumer interactions are likely to be common in nature.

Habitat selection by wolves and mountain lions during summer in western Montana

In the Northern Rockies of the United States, predators like wolves (Canis lupus) and mountain lions (Puma concolor) have been implicated in fluctuations or declines in populations of game species like elk (Cervus canadensis) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). In particular, local distributions of these predators may affect ungulate behavior, use of space, and dynamics. Our goal was to develop generalizable predictions of habitat selection by wolves and mountain lions across western Montana. We hypothesized both predator species would select habitat that maximized their chances of encountering and killing ungulates and that minimized their chances of encountering humans. We assessed habitat selection by these predators during summer using within-home range (3^rd order) resource selection functions (RSFs) in multiple study areas throughout western Montana, and tested how generalizable RSF predictions were by applying them to out-of-sample telemetry data from separate study areas. Selection for vegetation cover-types varied substantially among wolves in different study areas. Nonetheless, our predictions of 3^rd order selection by wolves were highly generalizable across different study areas. Wolves consistently selected simple topography where ungulate prey may be more susceptible to their cursorial hunting mode. Topographic features may serve as better proxies of predation risk by wolves than vegetation cover-types. Predictions of mountain lion distribution were less generalizable. Use of rugged terrain by mountain lions varied across ecosystem-types, likely because mountain lions targeted the habitats of different prey species in each study area. Our findings suggest that features that facilitate the hunting mode of a predator (i.e. simple topography for cursorial predators and hiding cover for stalking predators) may be more generalizable predictors of their habitat selection than features associated with local prey densities.

Close encounters of the fatal kind: Landscape features associated with central mountain caribou mortalities

In western Canada, anthropogenic disturbances resulting from resource extraction activities are associated with habitat loss and altered predator-prey dynamics. These habitat changes are linked to increased predation risk and unsustainable mortality rates for caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). To inform effective habitat restoration, our goal was to examine whether specific linear disturbance features were associated with caribou predation in central mountain caribou ranges. We used predation-caused caribou mortalities and caribou GPS-collar data collected between 2008 and 2015 to assess caribou predation risk within and outside of protected areas at four spatio-temporal scales: habitat use during the (a) 30 days, (b) 7 days, and (c) 24 hours prior to caribou being killed, and (d) characteristics at caribou kill site locations. Outside of protected areas, predation risk increased closer to pipelines, seismic lines, and streams. Within protected areas, predation risk increased closer to alpine habitat. Factors predicting predation risk differed among spatio-temporal scales and linear feature types: predation risk increased closer to pipelines during the 30 and 7 days prior to caribou being killed and closer to seismic lines during the 30 days, 7 days, and 24 hours prior, but decreased closer to roads during the 30 days prior to being killed. By assessing habitat use prior to caribou being killed, we identified caribou predation risk factors that would not have been detected by analysis of kill site locations alone. These results provide further evidence that restoration of anthropogenic linear disturbance features should be an immediate priority for caribou recovery in central mountain caribou ranges.

The density of anthropogenic features explains seasonal and behaviour-based functional responses in selection of linear features by a social predator

Anthropogenic linear features facilitate access and travel efficiency for predators, and can influence predator distribution and encounter rates with prey. We used GPS collar data from eight wolf packs and characteristics of seismic lines to investigate whether ease-of-travel or access to areas presumed to be preferred by prey best explained seasonal selection patterns of wolves near seismic lines, and whether the density of anthropogenic features led to functional responses in habitat selection. At a broad scale, wolves showed evidence of habitat-driven functional responses by exhibiting greater selection for areas near low-vegetation height seismic lines in areas with low densities of anthropogenic features. We highlight the importance of considering landscape heterogeneity and habitat characteristics, and the functional response in habitat selection when investigating seasonal behaviour-based selection patterns. Our results support behaviour in line with search for primary prey during summer and fall, and ease-of-travel during spring, while patterns of selection during winter aligned best with ease-of-travel for the less-industrialized foothills landscape, and with search for primary prey in the more-industrialized boreal landscape. These results highlight that time-sensitive restoration actions on anthropogenic features can affect the probability of overlap between predators and threatened prey within different landscapes.

Variation in anti-predator behaviors of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a multi-predator system

Anti-predator responses to perceived predation risk can influence population demography. Understanding the relative effect of predator exposure and intraspecific interactions across a variety of anti-predator behaviors provides important insight into inter- and intra-specific drivers of species-specific behaviors. We merged classical behavioral observation methods with camera trapping techniques to examine anti-predator behaviors of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780)) relative to variation in predator exposure and interspecific interactions. We coded 772 behavioral observations from >180 000 images spanning 605 trap-nights. Seasonal differences in behavioral responses to diminishing returns on foraging effort indicated that deer are risk-averse foragers and are more likely to exhibit risky behaviors in the presence of a concentrated food resource when the nutritional value of food resources are high. However, deer tended to spend less time at a site as resources diminished, supporting marginal value theories of habitat use. Intraspecific interaction predicted vigilance and the amount of time spent at a site. Similar to many other species, deer tended to be less vigilant and spend more time at a site as group size increased. Our research suggests that white-tailed deer in Wisconsin make foraging decisions based on factors associated with individual fitness, presence of conspecifics, and habitat characteristics.

Avian fitness consequences match habitat selection at the nest-site and landscape scale in agriculturally fragmented landscapes

Habitat selection theory suggests that when choosing breeding sites, animals should choose the best available habitat; however, studies show that individuals fail to choose habitats that maximize their fitness especially in drastically altered landscapes. Many studies have focused on selection at single scales, often using a single measure of fitness. However, links between habitat selection and fitness may vary depending on the spatial scale and measure of fitness, especially in situations where agricultural land use has altered the surrounding landscape.We examined multiscale habitat selection and fitness measures of the Bell's Vireo (Vireo bellii) and Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii) using data collected in agriculturally fragmented landscapes.We found evidence for selection of nest sites with dense understory, larger patches, and increasing restored habitat cover and decreasing forest cover in the surrounding landscape.For both focal species, selection for dense understory significantly increased nest survival; however, there appeared to be no concurrent benefit for fledgling production. Selection for broader scale features positively influenced nest survival for the Willow Flycatcher with no concurrent benefit for fledgling production. The observed mismatches may be due to anthropogenic habitat fragmentation at broader scales or may represent reproductive trade-offs for a fitness benefit not measured in this study.Fine-scale habitat selection decisions by our focal species appear to match fitness outcomes, whereas habitat selection at broader scales only provided fitness benefits for the Willow Flycatcher. Though providing no fledgling production benefit, when combined with suitably dense nesting habitat, larger patches in landscapes with greater amounts of restored habitat cover for Bell's Vireo and lower amounts of forest cover for Willow Flycatcher will produce more fledglings per unit area than smaller patches in landscapes with less restored habitat and more forest cover, respectively, which could help inform conservation decisions for these at-risk species.

Web-based application for threatened woodland caribou population modeling

Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are threatened in Canada, with population and distribution declines evident in most regions of the country. Causes of declines are linked to landscape change from forest fires and human development, notably forestry oil and gas activities, which result in caribou habitat loss and affect ecosystem food webs. The Federal Species at Risk Act requires effective protection and restoration of caribou habitat, with actions to increase caribou survival. These requirements call for effective monitoring of caribou population trends to gauge success. Many woodland caribou populations are nearly impossible to count using traditional aerial survey methods, but demographic‐based monitoring approaches can be used to estimate population trends based on population modeling of vital rates from marked animals. Monitoring programs have used a well‐known simple population model (the Recruitment‐Mortality [R/M] equation) to estimate demographic rates for woodland caribou, but have faced challenges in managing large data streams and providing transparency in the demographic estimation process. We present a stand‐alone statistical software application using open‐source software to permit efficient, transparent, and replicable demographic estimation for woodland caribou populations. We developed an easy‐to‐use, interactive web‐based application for the R/M population model that uses a Bayesian estimation approach and provides the user flexibility in choice of prior distributions and other output features. We illustrate the web‐application to the A la Pêche Southern Mountain (Central Group) woodland caribou population in west‐central Alberta, Canada, during 1998–2017. Our estimates of population demographics are consistent with previous research on this population and highlight the utility of the application in assessing caribou population responses to species recovery actions. We provide example data, computer code, the web‐based application package, and a user manual to guide installation and use. We also review underlying assumptions and challenges of population monitoring in this case study. We expect our software will contribute to efficient monitoring of woodland caribou and help in the assessment of recovery actions for this species. © 2019 The Authors. Wildlife Society Bulletin Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

We developed a stand‐alone Web‐Application to support population trend estimation for endangered and threatened woodland caribou populations.

Temporal road closures improve habitat quality for wildlife

Increasing levels of human activity threaten wildlife populations through direct mortality, habitat degradation, and habitat fragmentation. Area closures can improve habitat quality for wildlife, but may be difficult to achieve where tourism or other economic drivers are a priority. Temporal closures that limit human use during specific times of day have potential to increase habitat quality for wildlife, while continuing to provide opportunities for human use. However, the effectiveness of daily temporal closures has not been tested. We assessed how implementation of a temporal road closure affected wildlife movements in Banff National Park. Parks Canada closed a popular 17 km stretch of road between 2000 and 0800 hours to improve habitat quality for wildlife. We assessed the effectiveness of the closure on nine mammal species using three sets of data: remote cameras, road surveys, and grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) GPS data. In all three analyses, wildlife detection rates on the road doubled during the closure while remaining unchanged in reference areas. Our strong and consistent results suggest temporal closures are an important conservation tool that can increase habitat quality for wildlife while minimizing effects on people.

Natural regeneration on seismic lines influences movement behaviour of wolves and grizzly bears

Across the boreal forest of Canada, habitat disturbance is the ultimate cause of caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) declines. Habitat restoration is a focus of caribou recovery efforts, with a goal to finding ways to reduce predator use of disturbances, and caribou-predator encounters. One of the most pervasive disturbances within caribou ranges in Alberta, Canada are seismic lines cleared for energy exploration. Seismic lines facilitate predator movement, and although vegetation on some seismic lines is regenerating, it remains unknown whether vegetation regrowth is sufficient to alter predator response. We used Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data, and GPS locations, to understand how vegetation and other attributes of seismic lines influence movements of two predators, wolves (Canis lupus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). During winter, wolves moved towards seismic lines regardless of vegetation height, while during spring wolves moved towards seismic lines with higher vegetation. During summer, wolves moved towards seismic lines with lower vegetation and also moved faster near seismic lines with vegetation <0.7 m. Seismic lines with lower vegetation height were preferred by grizzly bears during spring and summer, but there was no relationship between vegetation height and grizzly bear movement rates. These results suggest that wolves use seismic lines for travel during summer, but during winter wolf movements relative to seismic lines could be influenced by factors additional to movement efficiency; potentially enhanced access to areas frequented by ungulate prey. Grizzly bears may be using seismic lines for movement, but could also be using seismic lines as a source of vegetative food or ungulate prey. To reduce wolf movement rate, restoration could focus on seismic lines with vegetation <1 m in height. However our results revealed that seismic lines continue to influence wolf movement behaviour decades after they were built, and even at later stages of regeneration. Therefore it remains unknown at what stage of natural regeneration, if any, wolves cease to respond to seismic lines. To reduce wolf response to seismic lines, active restoration tactics like blocking seismic lines and tree planting, along with management of alternate prey, could be evaluated.

Environmental and anthropogenic drivers of connectivity patterns: A basis for prioritizing conservation efforts for threatened populations

Ecosystem fragmentation and habitat loss have been the focus of landscape management due to restrictions on contemporary connectivity and dispersal of populations. Here, we used an individual approach to determine the drivers of genetic differentiation in caribou of the Canadian Rockies. We modelled the effects of isolation by distance, landscape resistance and predation risk and evaluated the consequences of individual migratory behaviour (seasonally migratory vs. sedentary) on gene flow in this threatened species. We applied distance-based and reciprocal causal modelling approaches, testing alternative hypotheses on the effects of geographic, topographic, environmental and local population-specific variables on genetic differentiation and relatedness among individuals. Overall, gene flow was restricted to neighbouring local populations, with spatial coordinates, local population size, groups and elevation explaining connectivity among individuals. Landscape resistance, geographic distances and predation risk were correlated with genetic distances, with correlations threefold higher for sedentary than for migratory caribou. As local caribou populations are increasingly isolated, our results indicate the need to address genetic connectivity, especially for populations with individuals displaying different migratory behaviours, whilst maintaining quality habitat both within and across the ranges of threatened populations.

Seeking sanctuary: the neonatal calving period among central mountain woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou)

Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) populations have declined throughout their range. With the goal of better understanding habitat selection and fidelity during the neonatal calving period (0–4 weeks), we applied a noninvasive method that estimates calving events and subsequent survival based on changes in movement rates among GPS-collared female caribou. We examined a long-term GPS-collar data set (1998–2014) collected from 81 adult female caribou in two central mountain herds in Alberta and British Columbia, Canada. Although we were unable to validate our results with aerial surveys and pregnancy tests, our estimates of parturition rates, survival rates, calving dates, and habitat selection were consistent with previous studies. We identified 83 calving sites. Female caribou selected calving sites and postparturition habitat on high-elevation ridgetops with gradual slopes and avoided anthropogenic linear features. Female caribou displayed low fidelity to interannual calving ranges with a mean distance of 8.7 km between calving ranges. Fidelity was lower in areas with high seismic-line density. Conservation of high-elevation habitat with limited anthropogenic disturbance is likely to provide the greatest benefit to central mountain caribou during the neonatal calving period, and represents a potential management strategy for population recovery efforts.

Toward the Restoration of Caribou Habitat: Understanding Factors Associated with Human Motorized Use of Legacy Seismic Lines

Populations of boreal and southern mountain caribou in Alberta, Canada, are declining, and the ultimate cause of their decline is believed to be anthropogenic disturbance. Linear features are pervasive across the landscape, and of particular importance, seismic lines established in the 1900s (legacy seismic lines) are slow to regenerate. Off-highway vehicles are widely used on these seismic lines and can hamper vegetative re-growth because of ongoing physical damage, compaction, and active clearing. Restoration of seismic lines within caribou range is therefore a priority for the recovery of threatened populations in Alberta, but a triage-type approach is necessary to prioritize restoration and ensure conservation resources are wisely spent. To target restoration efforts, our objective was to determine factors that best explained levels of off-highway vehicles use on seismic lines intersecting roads. We investigated the relative importance of local topography, vegetation attributes of seismic lines, and broad-scale human factors such as the density of infrastructures and the proximity to recreation campsites and towns to explain the observed levels of off-highway vehicles use. We found that off-highway vehicles use was mainly associated with local topography and vegetation attributes of seismic lines that facilitated ease-of-travel. Broad-scale landscape attributes associated with industrial, recreation access, or hunting activities did not explain levels of off-highway vehicles use. Management actions aimed at promoting natural regeneration and reduce ease-of-travel on legacy seismic lines within caribou ranges can be beneficial to caribou recovery in Alberta, Canada, and we therefore recommend restrictions of off-highway vehicles use on low vegetation, dry seismic lines in caribou ranges.

Managing wolves (Canis lupus) to recover threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Alberta

Across Canada, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) populations are declining because of human-induced changes to food webs that are resulting in apparent competition-induced increases in predator-caused caribou mortality. We tested the hypothesis that wolf (Canis lupus L., 1758) population reduction could reverse declines in a woodland caribou population following a BACI (before-after-control-impact) design conducted over a 12-year period in west-central Alberta, Canada. We monitored annual survival for 172 adult female caribou and calf recruitment from 2000 through 2012 and conducted a provincial government delivered wolf population reduction program annually during the winters of 2005–2006 to 2012 (inclusive) in an area centered on the Little Smoky range. Wolf removal translated to a 4.6% increase in mean population growth rate of the Little Smoky population mostly through improvements in calf recruitment. In contrast, the Red Rock Prairie Creek control population exhibited a 4.7% decline. Although the wolf population reduction program appeared to stabilize the Little Smoky population, it did not lead to population increase, however, with λ remaining approximately equal to 1. Therefore, we recommend, if required, predation management be combined with effective habitat conservation and long-term planning to effect the recovery of species, such as woodland caribou, which are declining as a result of habitat-mediated apparent competition.

Widespread declines in woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) continue in Alberta

Nowhere across Canada is the continued persistence of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) more uncertain than in Alberta due to widespread industrial development. A recent Government of Canada critical habitat review determined that habitat conditions within all Alberta boreal ecotype caribou ranges are unlikely or very unlikely to allow for self-sustaining caribou populations. This habitat-based assessment was based only indirectly on empirical population trends. Here, we estimated empirical population trend and growth rate (λ) for 13 of Alberta’s 16 remaining woodland caribou populations (plus one adjacent population from Saskatchewan) from 1994 to 2012 using demographic monitoring of adult female survival and calf recruitment. We captured and radio-collared a total of 1337 adult female caribou in 14 populations and estimated the mean annual adult female survival across all populations as 0.851. We conducted 158 late-winter calf recruitment surveys across the 14 populations classifying 20 872 caribou and estimated mean recruitment of 0.154 calves/cow (i.e., 0.077 female calves/cow). We then combined annual estimates of adult female survival and female calf recruitment within each population in a simple age-structured population model to estimate population trend. Annual population growth rate across caribou populations averaged 0.918, and was significantly declining, λ < 1.0, for 10 of the 14 caribou populations. Our results confirm that woodland caribou are declining rapidly (with a realized decline of approximately 50% every 8 years) across Alberta, and support conclusions from previous habitat-based assessments that the population viability of caribou is currently compromised, supporting development and implementation of recovery actions to reverse trends.

Explaining geographic gradients in winter selection of landscapes by boreal caribou with implications under global changes in Eastern Canada

Many animal species exhibit broad-scale latitudinal or longitudinal gradients in their response to biotic and abiotic components of their habitat. Although knowing the underlying mechanism of these patterns can be critical to the development of sound measures for the preservation or recovery of endangered species, few studies have yet identified which processes drive the existence of geographical gradients in habitat selection. Using extensive spatial data of broad latitudinal and longitudinal extent, we tested three hypotheses that could explain the presence of geographical gradients in landscape selection of the endangered boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) during winter in Eastern Canadian boreal forests: 1) climate-driven selection, which postulates that geographic gradients are surrogates for climatic gradients; 2) road-driven selection, which proposes that boreal caribou adjust their selection for certain habitat classes as a function of proximity to roads; and 3) an additive effect of both roads and climate. Our data strongly supported road-driven selection over climate influences. Thus, direct human alteration of landscapes drives boreal caribou distribution and should likely remain so until the climate changes sufficiently from present conditions. Boreal caribou avoided logged areas two-fold more strongly than burnt areas. Limiting the spread of road networks and accounting for the uneven impact of logging compared to wildfire should therefore be integral parts of any habitat management plan and conservation measures within the range of the endangered boreal caribou. The use of hierarchical spatial models allowed us to explore the distribution of spatially-structured errors in our models, which in turn provided valuable insights for generating alternative hypotheses about processes responsible for boreal caribou distribution.

Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival

1. A central assumption underlying the study of habitat selection is that selected habitats confer enhanced fitness. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely tested, and in some systems, gradients of predation risk may more accurately characterize spatial variation in vital rates than gradients described by habitat selection studies.

2. Here, we separately measured spatial patterns of both resource selection and predation risk and tested their relationships with a key demographic trait, adult female survival, for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin). We also evaluated whether exposure to gradients in both predation risk and resource selection value was manifested temporally through instantaneous or seasonal effects on survival outcomes.

3. We used Cox proportional hazards spatial survival modelling to assess the relative support for 5 selection- and risk-based definitions of habitat quality, as quantified by woodland caribou adult female survival. These hypotheses included scenarios in which selection ideally mirrored survival, risk entirely drove survival, non-ideal selection correlated with survival but with additive risk effects, an ecological trap with maladaptive selection and a non-spatial effect of annual variation in weather.

4. Indeed, we found positive relationships between the predicted values of a resource selection function (RSF) and survival, yet subsequently incorporating an additional negative effect of predation risk greatly improved models further. This revealed a positive, but non-ideal relationship between selection and survival. Gradients in these covariates were also shown to affect individual survival probability at multiple temporal scales. Exposure to increased predation risk had a relatively instantaneous effect on survival outcomes, whereas variation in habitat suitability predicted by an RSF had both instantaneous and longer-term seasonal effects on survival.

5. Predation risk was an additive source of hazard beyond that detected through selection alone, and woodland caribou selection thus was shown to be non-ideal. Furthermore, by combining spatial adult female survival models with herd-specific estimates of recruitment in matrix population models, we estimated a spatially explicit landscape of population growth predictions for this endangered species.

Preferred habitat and effective population size drive landscape genetic patterns in an endangered species

Landscape genetics provides a framework for pinpointing environmental features that determine the important exchange of migrants among populations. These studies usually test the significance of environmental variables on gene flow, yet ignore one fundamental driver of genetic variation in small populations, effective population size, N_e. We combined both approaches in evaluating genetic connectivity of a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou. We used least-cost paths to calculate matrices of resistance distance for landscape variables (preferred habitat, anthropogenic features and predation risk) and population-pairwise harmonic means of N_e, and correlated them with genetic distances, F_ST and D_c. Results showed that spatial configuration of preferred habitat and N_e were the two best predictors of genetic relationships. Additionally, controlling for the effect of N_e increased the strength of correlations of environmental variables with genetic distance, highlighting the significant underlying effect of N_e in modulating genetic drift and perceived spatial connectivity. We therefore have provided empirical support to emphasize preventing increased habitat loss and promoting population growth to ensure metapopulation viability.