Wolves alter the trajectory of forests by shaping the central place foraging behaviour of an ecosystem engineer

Predators can directly and indirectly alter the foraging behaviour of prey through direct predation and the risk of predation, and in doing so, initiate indirect effects that influence myriad species and ecological processes. We describe how wolves indirectly alter the trajectory of forests by constraining the distance that beavers, a central place forager and prolific ecosystem engineer, forage from water. Specifically, we demonstrate that wolves wait in ambush and kill beavers on longer feeding trails than would be expected based on the spatio-temporal availability of beavers. This pattern is driven by temporal dynamics of beaver foraging: beavers make more foraging trips and spend more time on land per trip on longer feeding trails that extend farther from water. As a result, beavers are more vulnerable on longer feeding trails than shorter ones. Wolf predation appears to be a selective evolutionary pressure propelled by consumptive and non-consumptive mechanisms that constrain the distance from water beavers forage, which in turn limits the area of forest around wetlands, lakes and rivers beavers alter through foraging. Thus, wolves appear intricately linked to boreal forest dynamics by shaping beaver foraging behaviour, a form of natural disturbance that alters the successional and ecological states of forests.

Eat or be eaten: Implications of potential exploitative competition between wolves and humans across predator-savvy and predator-naive deer populations

Recolonization of predators to their former ranges is becoming increasingly prevalent. Such recolonization places predators among their prey once again; the latter having lived without predation (from such predators) for a considerable time. This renewed coexistence creates opportunities to explore predation ecology at both fundamental and applied levels. We used a paired experimental design to investigate white-tailed deer risk allocation in the Upper and Lower Peninsulas (UP and LP) in Michigan, USA. Wolves are functionally absent in the LP, while deer in the UP coexist with a re-established wolf population. We treated 15 sites each in UP and LP with wolf olfactory cues and observed deer vigilance, activity, and visitation rates at the interface of habitat covariates using remote cameras. Such a paired design across wolf versus no-wolf areas allowed us to examine indirect predation effects while accounting for confounding parameters such as the presence of other predators and human activity. While wolf urine had no effect across most metrics in both UP and LP, we observed differences in deer activity in areas with versus without wolves. Sites treated with wolf urine in the UP showed a reduction in crepuscular deer activity, compared to control/novel-scent treated sites. Furthermore, we observed a strong positive effect of vegetation cover on deer vigilance in these sites. This indicates that simulated predator cues likely affect deer vigilance more acutely in denser habitats, which presumably facilitates predation success. Such responses were however absent among deer in the LP that are presumably naïve toward wolf predation. Where human and non-human predators hunt shared prey, such as in Michigan, predators may constrain human hunting success by increasing deer vigilance. Hunters may avoid such exploitative competition by choosing hunting/bait sites located in open areas. Our results pertaining to fundamental predation ecology have strong applied implications that can promote human-predator coexistence.

Differential provisioning roles, prey size, and prey abundance shape the dynamic feeding behavior of gray wolves

The demands of raising dependent young can influence the feeding behaviors of social carnivores, especially for individuals that are primarily responsible for provisioning young. We investigated how the feeding and provisioning behavior of a social carnivore, gray wolves (Canis lupus), are connected and shaped by extrinsic and intrinsic factors, and whether and how these patterns changed throughout the pup-rearing season (April-August). We found breeding wolves had shorter handling times of prey, lower probability of returning to kills, and greater probability of returning to homesites after kills compared to subordinate individuals. However, the feeding and provisioning behaviors of breeding individuals changed considerably over the pup-rearing season. Wolves had longer handling times and returned to provision pups directly after kills less frequently as annual prey abundance decreased. These patterns indicate that adult wolves prioritize meeting their own energetic demands over those of their pups when prey abundance decreases. We suggest that differential provisioning of offspring based on prey abundance is a behavioral mechanism by which group size adjusts to available resources via changes in neonate survival.

Logging, linear features, and human infrastructure shape the spatial dynamics of wolf predation on an ungulate neonate

Humans are increasingly recognized as important players in predator-prey dynamics by modifying landscapes. This trend has been well-documented for large mammal communities in North American boreal forests: logging creates early seral forests that benefit ungulates such as white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), while the combination of infrastructure development and resource extraction practices generate linear features that allow predators such as wolves (Canis lupus) to travel and forage more efficiently throughout the landscape. Disturbances from recreational activities and residential development are other major sources of human activity in boreal ecosystems that may further alter wolf-ungulate dynamics. Here, we evaluate the influence that several major types of anthropogenic landscape modifications (timber harvest, linear features, and residential infrastructure) have on where and how wolves hunt ungulate neonates in a southern boreal forest ecosystem in Minnesota, USA. We demonstrate that each major anthropogenic disturbance significantly influences wolf predation of white-tailed deer fawns (n = 427 kill sites). In contrast with the "human shield hypothesis" that posits prey use human-modified areas as refuge, wolves killed fawns closer to residential buildings than expected based on spatial availability. Fawns were also killed within recently-logged areas more than expected. Concealment cover was higher at kill sites than random sites, suggesting wolves use senses other than vision, probably olfaction, to detect hidden fawns. Wolves showed strong selection for hunting along linear features, and kill sites were also closer to linear features than expected. We hypothesize that linear features facilitated wolf predation on fawns by allowing wolves to travel efficiently among high-quality prey patches (recently logged areas, near buildings), and also increase encounter rates with olfactory cues that allow them to detect hidden fawns. These findings provide novel insight into the strategies predators use to hunt ungulate neonates and the many ways human activity alters wolf-ungulate neonate predator-prey dynamics, which have remained elusive due to the challenges of locating sites where predators kill small prey. Our research has important management and conservation implications for wolf-ungulate systems subjected to anthropogenic pressures, particularly as the range of overlap between wolves and deer expands and appears to be altering food web dynamics in boreal ecosystems.

The ethology of wolves foraging on freshwater fish in a boreal ecosystem

Through global positioning system (GPS) collar locations, remote cameras, field observations and the first wild wolf to be GPS-collared with a camera collar, we describe when, where and how wolves fish in a freshwater ecosystem. From 2017 to 2021, we recorded more than 10 wolves (Canis lupus) hunting fish during the spring spawning season in northern Minnesota, USA. Wolves ambushed fish in creeks at night when spawning fish were abundant, available and vulnerable in shallow waters. We observed wolves specifically targeting sections of rivers below beaver (Castor canadensis) dams, suggesting that beavers may indirectly facilitate wolf fishing behaviour. Wolves also cached fish on shorelines. We documented these findings across five different social groups at four distinct waterways, suggesting that wolf fishing behaviour may be widespread in similar ecosystems but has probably remained difficult to study given its annual brevity. Spawning fish may serve as a valuable pulsed resource for packs because the spring spawning season coincides with low primary prey (deer Odocoileus virginianus) availability and abundance, and when packs have higher energetic demands owing to newly born pups. We demonstrate the flexibility and adaptability of wolf hunting and foraging behaviour, and provide insight into how wolves can survive in a myriad of ecosystems.

Recent Trends in Survival and Mortality of Wolves in Minnesota, United States

Survival is a key determinant of population growth and persistence; computation and understanding of this metric is key to successful population management, especially for recovering populations of large carnivores such as wolves. Using a Bayesian frailty analytical approach, we evaluated information from 150 radio-tagged wolves over a 16-year time period to determine temporal trends and age- and sex-specific survival rates of wolves in Minnesota, United States. Based on our analyses, overall annual survival of wolves during the study was 0.67, with no clear evidence for age- or sex-specific differences in the population. Our model demonstrated statistical support for a temporal trend in annual survival; the highest survival was predicted at the beginning of the time series (0.87), with lowest survival (0.55) during 2018. We did not observe evidence that survival was markedly reduced during years when a regulated hunting and trapping season was implemented for wolves (years 2012–2014). However, cause-specific mortality analysis indicated that most mortality was human-caused. While the estimate for increasing human-caused mortality over time was positive, the evidence was not statistically significant. Anthropogenic causes resulted in ∼66% of known mortalities, including legal and illegal killing, and vehicular collisions. Trends in wolf survival in Minnesota may reflect an expanding distribution; wolf range has spread to areas with more human development during the study, presumably leading to increased hazard and reduced survival. Our results provide foundational information for evaluating and guiding future policy decisions pertaining to the Great Lakes wolf population.

Influence of infrastructure, ecology, and underpass-dimensions on multi-year use of Standard Gauge Railway underpasses by mammals in Tsavo, Kenya

Rail and road infrastructure is essential for economic growth and development but can cause a gradual loss in biodiversity and degradation of ecosystem function and services. We assessed the influence of underpass dimensions, fencing, proximity to water and roads, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), presence of other species and livestock on underpass use by large and medium-sized mammals. Results revealed hyenas and leopards used the underpasses more than expected whereas giraffes and antelopes used the underpasses less than expected. Generalized linear mixed-effects models revealed that underpass height influenced use by wildlife, with several species preferring to use taller underpasses. Electric fencing increased underpass use by funneling species towards underpasses, except for elephants and black-backed jackal for which it reduced underpass passage. We also found that the use of underpasses by livestock reduced the probability of use by nearly 50% for wildlife species. Carnivore species were more likely to cross underpasses used by their prey. Buffalo, livestock, and hyenas used underpasses characterized by vegetation with higher NDVI and near water sources while baboons, dik-diks and antelope avoided underpasses with high NDVI. Our findings suggest a need for diverse and comprehensive approaches for mitigating the negative impacts of rail on African wildlife.

Contrasting levels of social distancing between the sexes in lions

Understanding sexual segregation is crucial to comprehend sociality. A comparative analysis of long-term lion data from Serengeti and Ngorongoro in Tanzania, and Gir in India, reveals that male-female associations are contingent upon male and female group size, prey-size and availability, and the number of prides that each male coalition currently resides. Males maintain proximity with females, whereas females are responsible for segregation except at large kills. Lions feed on the largest prey in Ngorongoro and the smallest in Gir, and females spend the most time with males in Ngorongoro and the least in Gir. Females roar less often in prey-scarce circumstances in Serengeti and throughout the year in Gir possibly to prevent being tracked by males that parasitize on female kills. However, females readily associate with males when available prey is large and abundant. Contrasting availability of resources between Gir and Serengeti/Ngorongoro helps explain the varying degrees of sexual segregation and appears to drive differences in mating systems between these lion populations.

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Sexual segregation in lion populations is driven by resource availability

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Females are responsible for segregating from males, except at large kills

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When prey is scarce, females reduce detection by males by roaring less frequently

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Contrasting proximity between the sexes has led to variation in mating strategies in these populations of African and Asian lions

Wolves choose ambushing locations to counter and capitalize on the sensory abilities of their prey

Comprehensive knowledge of ambush behavior requires an understanding of where a predator expects prey to be, which is generally unknowable because ambush predators often hunt mobile prey that exhibit complex, irregular, or inconspicuous movements. Wolves (Canis lupus) are primarily cursorial predators, but they use ambush strategies to hunt beavers (Castor canadensis). Terrestrial beaver activity is predictable because beavers use well-defined, conspicuous habitat features repeatedly. Thus, studying where wolves wait-in-ambush for beavers provides a unique opportunity to understand how predators choose ambush locations in relation to prey activity. We searched 11 817 clusters of GPS locations from wolves in the Greater Voyageurs Ecosystem, International Falls, MN, and documented 748 ambushing sites and 214 instances where wolves killed beavers. Wolves chose ambush locations: 1) with olfactory concealment to avoid detection from the highly developed olfactory senses of beavers and 2) close (generally <5 m) to beaver habitat features to take advantage of beavers’ inability to visually detect motionless predators. Our work describes in detail the ambush strategies wolves use to hunt beavers and continues to overturn the traditional notion that wolves rely solely on cursorial hunting strategies. We also demonstrate that ambush predators can anticipate the movements and behavior of their prey due to a fundamental understanding of their prey’s sensory abilities. Wolves, therefore, and likely ambush predators in general, appear capable of simultaneously accounting for abiotic and biotic factors when choosing ambush locations, ultimately allowing them to counter and capitalize on the sensory abilities of their prey.

Outsized effect of predation: Wolves alter wetland creation and recolonization by killing ecosystem engineers

Gray wolves are a premier example of how predators can transform ecosystems through trophic cascades. However, whether wolves change ecosystems as drastically as previously suggested has been increasingly questioned. We demonstrate how wolves alter wetland creation and recolonization by killing dispersing beavers. Beavers are ecosystem engineers that generate most wetland creation throughout boreal ecosystems. By studying beaver pond creation and recolonization patterns coupled with wolf predation on beavers, we determined that 84% of newly created and recolonized beaver ponds remained occupied until the fall, whereas 0% of newly created and recolonized ponds remained active after a wolf killed the dispersing beaver that colonized that pond. By affecting where and when beavers engineer ecosystems, wolves alter all of the ecological processes (e.g., water storage, nutrient cycling, and forest succession) that occur due to beaver-created impoundments. Our study demonstrates how predators have an outsized effect on ecosystems when they kill ecosystem engineers.

The role of kinship and demography in shaping cooperation amongst male lions

The influence of kinship on animal cooperation is often unclear. Cooperating Asiatic lion coalitions are linearly hierarchical; male partners appropriate resources disproportionately. To investigate how kinship affect coalitionary dynamics, we combined microsatellite based genetic inferences with long-term genealogical records to measure relatedness between coalition partners of free-ranging lions in Gir, India. Large coalitions had higher likelihood of having sibling partners, while pairs were primarily unrelated. Fitness computations incorporating genetic relatedness revealed that low-ranking males in large coalitions were typically related to the dominant males and had fitness indices higher than single males, contrary to the previous understanding of this system based on indices derived from behavioural metrics alone. This demonstrates the indirect benefits to (related) males in large coalitions. Dominant males were found to 'lose less' if they lost mating opportunities to related partners versus unrelated males. From observations on territorial conflicts we show that while unrelated males cooperate, kin-selected benefits are ultimately essential for the maintenance of large coalitions. Although large coalitions maximised fitness as a group, demographic parameters limited their prevalence by restricting kin availability. Such demographic and behavioural constraints condition two-male coalitions to be the most attainable compromise for Gir lions.

Territoriality drives preemptive habitat selection in recovering wolves: Implications for carnivore conservation

According to the ideal-free distribution (IFD), individuals within a population are free to select habitats that maximize their chances of success. Assuming knowledge of habitat quality, the IFD predicts that average fitness will be approximately equal among individuals and between habitats, while density varies, implying that habitat selection will be density dependent. Populations are often assumed to follow an IFD, although this assumption is rarely tested with empirical data, and may be incorrect when territoriality indicates habitat selection tactics that deviate from the IFD (e.g. ideal-despotic distribution or ideal-preemptive distribution). When territoriality influences habitat selection, species' density will not directly reflect components of fitness such as reproductive success or survival. In such cases, assuming an IFD can lead to false conclusions about habitat quality. We tested theoretical models of density-dependent habitat selection on a species known to exhibit territorial behaviour in order to determine whether commonly applied habitat models are appropriate under these circumstances. We combined long-term radiotelemetry and census data from grey wolves Canis lupus in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA to relate spatiotemporal variability in wolf density to underlying classifications of habitat within a hierarchical state-space modelling framework. We then iteratively applied isodar analysis to evaluate which distribution of habitat selection best described this recolonizing wolf population. The wolf population in our study expanded by >1,000% during our study (~50 to >600 individuals), and density-dependent habitat selection was most consistent with the ideal-preemptive distribution, as opposed to the ideal-free or ideal-despotic alternatives. Population density of terrestrial carnivores may not be positively correlated with the fitness value of their habitats, and density-dependent habitat selection patterns may help to explain complex predator-prey dynamics and cascading indirect effects. Source-sink population dynamics appear likely when species exhibit rapid growth and occupy interspersed habitats of contrasting quality. These conditions are likely and have implications for large carnivores in many systems, such as areas in North America and Europe where large predator species are currently recolonizing their former ranges.

Territorial landscapes: incorporating density-dependence into wolf habitat selection studies

Habitat selection is a process that spans space, time and individual life histories. Ecological analyses of animal distributions and preferences are most accurate when they account for inherent dynamics of the habitat selection process. Strong territoriality can constrain perception of habitat availability by individual animals or groups attempting to colonize or establish new territory. Because habitat selection is a function of habitat availability, broad-scale changes in habitat availability or occupancy can drive density-dependent habitat functional responses. We investigated density-dependent habitat selection over a 19-year period of grey wolf (Canis lupus) recovery in Michigan, USA, using a generalized linear mixed model framework to develop a resource selection probability function (RSPF) with habitat coefficients conditioned on random effects for wolf packs and random year intercepts. In addition, we allowed habitat coefficients to vary as interactions with increasing wolf density over space and time. Results indicated that pack presence was driven by factors representing topography, human development, winter prey availability, forest structure, roads, streams and snow. Importantly, responses to many of these predictors were density-dependent. Spatio-temporal dynamics and population changes can cause considerable variation in wildlife-habitat relationships, possibly confounding interpretation of conventional habitat selection models. By incorporating territoriality into an RSPF analysis, we determined that wolves' habitat use in Michigan shifted over time, for example, exhibiting declining responses to winter prey indices and switching from positive to negative responses with respect to stream densities. We consider this an important example of a habitat functional response in wolves, driven by colonization, density-dependence and changes in occupancy during a time period of range expansion and population increase.

Comparing survey and multiple recruitment-mortality models to assess growth rates and population projections

Estimation of population trends and demographic parameters is important to our understanding of fundamental ecology and species management, yet these data are often difficult to obtain without the use of data from population surveys or marking animals. The northeastern Minnesota moose (Alces alces Linnaeus, 1758) population declined 58% during 2006-2017, yet aerial surveys indicated stability during 2012-2017. In response to the decline, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) initiated studies of adult and calf survival to better understand cause-specific mortality, calf recruitment, and factors influencing the population trajectory. We estimated population growth rate (λ) using adult survival and calf recruitment data from demographic studies and the recruitment-mortality (R-M) Equation and compared these estimates to those calculated using data from aerial surveys. We then projected population dynamics 50 years using each resulting λ and used a stochastic model to project population dynamics 30 years using data from the MNDNR's studies. Calculations of λ derived from 2012 to 2017 survey data, and the R-M Equation indicated growth (1.02 ± 0.16 [SE] and 1.01 ± 0.04, respectively). However, the stochastic model indicated a decline in the population over 30 years (λ = 0.91 ± 0.004; 2014-2044). The R-M Equation has utility for estimating λ, and the supporting information from demographic collaring studies also helps to better address management questions. Furthermore, estimates of λ calculated using collaring data were more certain and reflective of current conditions. Long-term monitoring using collars would better inform population performance predictions and demographic responses to environmental variability.

Towards Quantifying Carrion Biomass in Ecosystems

The decomposition of animal biomass (carrion) contributes to the recycling of energy and nutrients through ecosystems. Whereas the role of plant decomposition in ecosystems is broadly recognised, the significance of carrion to ecosystem functioning remains poorly understood. Quantitative data on carrion biomass are lacking and there is no clear pathway towards improved knowledge in this area. Here, we present a framework to show how quantities derived from individual carcasses can be scaled up using population metrics, allowing for comparisons among ecosystems and other forms of biomass. Our framework facilitates the generation of new data that is critical to building a quantitative understanding of the contribution of carrion to trophic processes and ecosystem stocks and flows.

Does persistent snowpack inhibit degradation of fecal stress indicators?

Physiological stress in wildlife can be a useful indicator of a population's response to environmental factors. By using non-invasive endocrinological techniques, such as fecal sampling, potential confounding factors associated with the stress of capture can be avoided. A potential drawback of fecal sampling, however, is degradation of samples which may produce aberrant measurements of fecal glucocorticoid metabolites. In vertebrates, glucocorticoids, such as corticosterone, become elevated in response to stress. We sought to gauge the reliability of measurement of fecal glucocorticoid metabolites from white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fecal samples exposed to a temperate winter with substantial snow cover and cold temperatures for up to 90 days, by repeatedly subsampling fecal samples every 10 days and performing a corticosterone enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Measurements of fecal glucocorticoid metabolites at 10 days were consistent with initial measurements, after which (20 days) they became aberrant following a period of thawing. Consequently, glucocorticoid metabolite levels in feces appear to remain stable under ambient conditions if temperatures remain below freezing at least for 10 days. While it's possible that samples may remain useful beyond this time frame based on previous laboratory studies of samples stored in a freezer, further work is needed to determine how samples weather in situ under extreme cold (e.g. Arctic) or periods of partial thawing.

Fertilizing riparian forests: nutrient repletion across ecotones with trophic rewilding

Trophic rewilding maintains that large mammals are functionally important to resource subsidies and nutrient repletion, yet this prediction is understudied. Here, I report on the potential magnitude and variability of nitrogen that moose populations move from aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems. My aim is to provide justified approximations of the role of moose in the flux of a limiting nutrient across ecotones and to illustrate how this role is linked to wolf predation and climate warming. Using Isle Royale and northeastern Minnesota, USA as contrasting focal systems, I found that the long-term annual N gain for riparian forests likely ranges from 1 to 10 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1, depending on the heterogeneity of moose movements. For these systems, this range is equivalent to approximately 4-30% of net annual N mineralization, approximately 62-625% of annual N runoff, approximately 28-333% of annual atmospheric N deposition and approximately 31-312% of the N sequestered by trees. The N flux approximation is most sensitive to moose population levels and, as such, is influenced by wolves, climate warming and disease. The potential for other terrestrial ungulates that feed on aquatic plants to provide significant nutrient repletion across ecotones is unknown but important to examine in the context of trophic rewilding. The extent to which predators influence ungulate abundance indirectly impacts this nutrient repletion.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

Finding wolf homesites: improving the efficacy of howl surveys to study wolves

Locating wolf (Canis lupus) homesites is valuable for understanding the foraging behavior, population dynamics, and reproductive ecology of wolves during summer. During this period wolf pack members (adults and pups) readily respond to simulated wolf howls (i.e., howl surveys), which allows researchers to estimate the location of the homesite via triangulation. Confirming the actual locations of homesites via ground truthing is labor intensive because of the error surrounding estimated locations. Our objectives were (1) to quantify observer error during howl surveys and compare amongst experience levels, (2) provide a simple method for locating homesites in the field by incorporating observer error, and (3) further document the value of this method for monitoring wolf packs throughout the summer. We located 17 homesites by howl surveys during 2015–2017 in the Greater Voyageurs Ecosystem, Minnesota, USA. Of 62 bearings taken by observers during howl surveys, bearings erred by an average of 7.6° ± 6.3° (SD). There was no difference in observer error between novice and experienced observers. A simple way to increase efficiency when searching for homesites is to search concentric areas (bands) based on estimated observer error, specifically by: (1) adding ±10° error bands around howl survey bearings when ≥3 bearings can be obtained, (2) ±10° and ±20° error bands when 2 bearings are obtained, and (3) ±10° and ±26° error bands when 1 bearing is obtained. By incorporating observer error and understanding how frequently and how far wolves move homesites, it is possible to monitor wolf packs and confirm most, if not all, homesites used by a pack from at least June until August without having a collared individual in a pack.

Spatially varying density dependence drives a shifting mosaic of survival in a recovering apex predator (Canis lupus)

Understanding landscape patterns in mortality risk is crucial for promoting recovery of threatened and endangered species. Humans affect mortality risk in large carnivores such as wolves (Canis lupus), but spatiotemporally varying density dependence can significantly influence the landscape of survival. This potentially occurs when density varies spatially and risk is unevenly distributed. We quantified spatiotemporal sources of variation in survival rates of gray wolves (C. lupus) during a 21‐year period of population recovery in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. We focused on mapping risk across time using Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) models with time‐dependent covariates, thus exploring a shifting mosaic of survival. Extended CPH models and time‐dependent covariates revealed influences of seasonality, density dependence and experience, as well as individual‐level factors and landscape predictors of risk. We used results to predict the shifting landscape of risk at the beginning, middle, and end of the wolf recovery time series. Survival rates varied spatially and declined over time. Long‐term change was density‐dependent, with landscape predictors such as agricultural land cover and edge densities contributing negatively to survival. Survival also varied seasonally and depended on individual experience, sex, and resident versus transient status. The shifting landscape of survival suggested that increasing density contributed to greater potential for human conflict and wolf mortality risk. Long‐term spatial variation in key population vital rates is largely unquantified in many threatened, endangered, and recovering species. Variation in risk may indicate potential for source‐sink population dynamics, especially where individuals preemptively occupy suitable territories, which forces new individuals into riskier habitat types as density increases. We encourage managers to explore relationships between adult survival and localized changes in population density. Density‐dependent risk maps can identify increasing conflict areas or potential habitat sinks which may persist due to high recruitment in adjacent habitats.

Habitat capacity for cougar recolonization in the Upper Great Lakes region

Background

Recent findings indicate that cougars (Puma concolor) are expanding their range into the midwestern United States. Confirmed reports of cougar in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have increased dramatically in frequency during the last five years, leading to speculation that cougars may re-establish in the Upper Great Lakes (UGL) region, USA. Recent work showed favorable cougar habitat in northeastern Minnesota, suggesting that the northern forested regions of Michigan and Wisconsin may have similar potential. Recolonization of cougars in the UGL states would have important ecological, social, and political impacts that will require effective management.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), we extended a cougar habitat model to Michigan and Wisconsin and incorporated primary prey densities to estimate the capacity of the region to support cougars. Results suggest that approximately 39% (>58,000 km²) of the study area could support cougars, and that there is potential for a population of approximately 500 or more animals. An exploratory validation of this habitat model revealed strong association with 58 verified cougar locations occurring in the study area between 2008 and 2013.

Conclusions/Significance

Spatially explicit information derived from this study could potentially lead to estimation of a viable population, delineation of possible cougar-human conflict areas, and the targeting of site locations for current monitoring. Understanding predator-prey interactions, interspecific competition, and human-wildlife relationships is becoming increasingly critical as top carnivores continue to recolonize the UGL region.

Mercury in aquatic forage of large herbivores: impact of environmental conditions, assessment of health threats, and implications for transfer across ecosystem compartments

Mercury (Hg) is a leading contaminant across U.S. water bodies, warranting concern for wildlife species that depend upon food from aquatic systems. The risk of Hg toxicity to large herbivores is little understood, even though some large herbivores consume aquatic vascular plants (macrophytes) that may hyper-accumulate Hg. We investigated whether total Hg and methylmercury (MeHg) in aquatic forage may be of concern to moose (Alces alces) and beaver (Castor canadensis) by measuring total Hg and MeHg concentrations, calculating sediment-water bioconcentration factors for macrophyte species these herbivores consume, and estimating herbivore daily Hg consumption. Abiotic factors impacting macrophyte Hg were assessed, as was the difference in Hg concentrations of macrophytes from glacial lakes and those created or expanded by beaver damming. The amount of aquatic-derived Hg that moose move from aquatic to terrestrial systems was calculated, in order to investigate the potential for movement of Hg across ecosystem compartments by large herbivores. Results indicate that the Hg exposure of generalist herbivores may be affected by macrophyte community composition more so than by many abiotic factors in the aquatic environment. Mercury concentrations varied greatly between macrophyte species, with relatively high concentrations in Utricularia vulgaris (>80 ng g(-1) in some sites), and negligible concentrations in Nuphar variegata (~6 ng g(-1)). Macrophyte total Hg concentration was correlated with water pH in predictable ways, but not with other variables generally associated with aquatic Hg concentrations, such as dissolved organic carbon. Moose estimated daily consumption of MeHg is equivalent to or below human reference levels, and far below wildlife reference levels. However, estimated beaver Hg consumption exceeds reference doses for humans, indicating the potential for sub-lethal nervous impairment. In regions of high moose density, moose may be ecologically important vectors that transfer Hg from aquatic to surrounding terrestrial systems.

Where wolves kill moose: the influence of prey life history dynamics on the landscape ecology of predation

The landscape ecology of predation is well studied and known to be influenced by habitat heterogeneity. Little attention has been given to how the influence of habitat heterogeneity on the landscape ecology of predation might be modulated by life history dynamics of prey in mammalian systems. We demonstrate how life history dynamics of moose (Alces alces) contribute to landscape patterns in predation by wolves (Canis lupus) in Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior, USA. We use pattern analysis and kernel density estimates of moose kill sites to demonstrate that moose in senescent condition and moose in prime condition tend to be wolf-killed in different regions of Isle Royale in winter. Predation on senescent moose was clustered in one kill zone in the northeast portion of the island, whereas predation on prime moose was clustered in 13 separate kill zones distributed throughout the full extent of the island. Moreover, the probability of kill occurrence for senescent moose, in comparison to prime moose, increased in high elevation habitat with patches of dense coniferous trees. These differences can be attributed, at least in part, to senescent moose being more vulnerable to predation and making different risk-sensitive habitat decisions than prime moose. Landscape patterns emerging from prey life history dynamics and habitat heterogeneity have been observed in the predation ecology of fish and insects, but this is the first mammalian system for which such observations have been made.

Climate change and water use partitioning by different plant functional groups in a grassland on the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is predicted to experience increases in air temperature, increases in snowfall, and decreases in monsoon rains; however, there is currently a paucity of data that examine the ecological responses to such climate changes. In this study, we examined the effects of increased air temperature and snowfall on: 1) water use partitioning by different plant functional groups, and 2) ecosystem CO₂ fluxes throughout the growing season. At the individual plant scale, we used stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) to partition water use between shallow- and deep-rooted species. Prior to the arrival of summer precipitation (typically mid-July), snowmelt was the main water source in the soils. During this time, shallow and deep-rooted species partitioned water use by accessing water from shallow and deep soils, respectively. However, once the monsoon rains arrived, all plants used rainwater from the upper soils as the main water source. Snow addition did not result in increased snowmelt use throughout the growing season; instead, snowmelt water was pushed down into deeper soils when the rains arrived. At the larger plot scale, CO₂ flux measurements demonstrated that rain was the main driver for net ecosystem productivity (NEP). NEP rates were low during June and July and reached a maximum during the monsoon season in August. Warming decreased NEP through a reduction in gross primary productivity (GPP), and snow additions did not mitigate the negative effects of warming by increasing NEP or GPP. Both the isotope and CO₂ flux results suggest that rain drives productivity in the Nam Tso region on the TP. This also suggests that the effects of warming-induced drought on the TP may not be mitigated by increased snowfall. Further decreases in summer monsoon rains may affect ecosystem productivity, with large implications for livestock-based livelihoods.

Broadening the ecological context of ungulate-ecosystem interactions: the importance of space, seasonality, and nitrogen

Spatial heterogeneity of soil resources, particularly nitrogen availability, affects herbaceous-layer cover and diversity in temperate forest ecosystems. Current hypotheses predict that ungulate herbivores influence nitrogen availability at the stand scale, but how ungulates affect nitrogen availability at finer spatial scales that are relevant to the herb layer is less understood. We tested the hypothesis that ungulate exclusion reduces the spatial complexity of nitrogen availability at neighborhood scales (1-26 m) apart from mean stand scale effects. This outcome was expected due to a lack of ungulate nitrogenous waste deposition within exclosures and seasonally variable ungulate habitat use. To test this hypothesis we examined spatial patterning of ammonium and nitrate availability, herb-layer cover and diversity, and under-canopy solar radiation using geostatistical models. Our study sites included six stands of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) forest: three where white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were excluded and three that were accessible to deer. Where deer were present, patch sizes of ammonium availability, cover, and diversity were smaller compared to deer exclosures, whereas mean site-level effects were not significant. Within deer exclosures cover and solar radiation were more similar in patch size than were cover and nitrogen availability. Our results suggest that browsing ungulates affect spatial patterns of herb-layer cover and diversity through the excretion of nitrogenous wastes in small, discrete patches. Ungulate-excreted nitrogen deposition and herbivory were concentrated in the dormant season, allowing herb-layer plants a greater opportunity to benefit from nitrogen additions. Therefore, the impact of ungulates on nitrogen cycling in forest ecosystems varies with spatial scale and the seasonal timing of ungulate impacts. In this way, ungulates may function as a seasonally dependent link between fine-scale and landscape-level ecological processes.

Bear-baiting may exacerbate wolf-hunting dog conflict

Background

The influence of policy on the incidence of human-wildlife conflict can be complex and not entirely anticipated. Policies for managing bear hunter success and depredation on hunting dogs by wolves represent an important case because with increasing wolves, depredations are expected to increase. This case is challenging because compensation for wolf depredation on hunting dogs as compared to livestock is less common and more likely to be opposed. Therefore, actions that minimize the likelihood of such conflicts are a conservation need.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used data from two US states with similar wolf populations but markedly different wolf/hunting dog depredation patterns to examine the influence of bear hunting regulations, bear hunter to wolf ratios, hunter method, and hunter effort on wolf depredation trends. Results indicated that the ratio of bear hunting permits sold per wolf, and hunter method are important factors affecting wolf depredation trends in the Upper Great Lakes region, but strong differences exist between Michigan and Wisconsin related in part to the timing and duration of bear-baiting (i.e., free feeding). The probability that a wolf depredated a bear-hunting dog increases with the duration of bear-baiting, resulting in a relative risk of depredation 2.12–7.22× greater in Wisconsin than Michigan. The net effect of compensation for hunting dog depredation in Wisconsin may also contribute to the difference between states.

Conclusions/Significance

These results identified a potential tradeoff between bear hunting success and wolf/bear-hunting dog conflict. These results indicate that management options to minimize conflict exist, such as adjusting baiting regulations. If reducing depredations is an important goal, this analysis indicates that actions aside from (or in addition to) reducing wolf abundance might achieve that goal. This study also stresses the need to better understand the relationship among baiting practices, the effect of compensation on hunter behavior, and depredation occurrence.

Bat-cave catchment areas: using stable isotopes (deltaD) to determine the probable origins of hibernating bats

The application of stable hydrogen isotope (deltaD) techniques has swiftly advanced our understanding of animal movements, but this progression is dominated by studies of birds and relatively long-distance, north-south migrants. This dominance reflects the challenge of incorporating multiple sources of error into geographic assignments and the nature of spatially explicit deltaD models, which possess greater latitudinal than longitudinal resolution. However, recent progress in likelihood-based assignments that incorporate multiple sources of isotopic error and Bayesian approaches that include additional sources of information may advance finer-scale understanding of animal movements. We develop a stable-isotope method for determining probable origins of bats within hibernacula and show that this method produces spatially explicit, continuous assignments with regional resolution. We outline how these assignments can be used to infer hibernacula connectivity, an application that could inform spatial modeling of white-nose syndrome. Additionally, estimates of seasonal and annual flight distances for many cave-dwelling bat species can be derived from this approach. We also discuss how this application can be used in general to provide insights into variable migratory and foraging strategies within bat populations.

Modeling marine protected areas for threatened eiders in a climatically changing Bering Sea

Delineating protected areas for sensitive species is a growing challenge as changing climate alters the geographic pattern of habitats as well as human responses to those shifts. When human impacts are expected within projected ranges of threatened species, there is often demand to demarcate the minimum habitat required to ensure the species' persistence. Because diminished or wide-ranging populations may not occupy all viable (and needed) habitat at once, one must identify thresholds of resources that will support the species even in unoccupied areas. Long-term data on the shifting mosaic of critical resources may indicate ranges of future variability. We addressed these issues for the Spectacled Eider (Somateria fischeri), a federally threatened species that winters in pack ice of the Bering Sea. Changing climate has decreased ice cover and severely reduced the eiders' benthic prey and has increased prospects for expansion of bottom trawling that may further affect prey communities. To assess long-term changes in habitats that will support eiders, we linked data on benthic prey, sea ice, and weather from 1970 to 2001 with a spatially explicit simulation model of eider energy balance that integrated field, laboratory, and remote-sensing studies. Areas estimated to have prey densities adequate for eiders in 1970-1974 did not include most areas that were viable 20 years later (1993-1994). Unless the entire area with adequate prey in 1993-1994 had been protected, the much reduced viable area in 1999-2001 might well have been excluded. During long non-foraging periods (as at night), eiders can save much energy by resting on ice vs. floating on water; thus, loss of ice cover in the future might substantially decrease the area in which prey densities are adequate to offset the eiders' energy needs. For wide-ranging benthivores such as eiders, our results emphasize that fixed protected areas based on current conditions can be too small or inflexible to subsume long-term shifts in habitat conditions. Better knowledge of patterns of natural disturbance experienced by prey communities, and appropriate allocation of human disturbance over seasons or years, may yield alternative strategies to large-scale closures that may be politically and economically problematic.

Stable isotopes, ecological integration and environmental change: wolves record atmospheric carbon isotope trend better than tree rings

Large-scale patterns of isotope ratios are detectable in the tissues of organisms, but the variability in these patterns often obscures detection of environmental trends. We show that plants and animals at lower trophic levels are relatively poor indicators of the temporal trend in atmospheric carbon isotope ratios (delta13C) when compared with animals at higher trophic levels. First, we tested how differences in atmospheric delta13C values were transferred across three trophic levels. Second, we compared contemporary delta13C trends (1961-2004) in atmospheric CO2 to delta13C patterns in a tree species (jack pine, Pinus banksiana), large herbivore (moose, Alces alces) and large carnivore (grey wolf, Canis lupus) from North America. Third, we compared palaeontological (approx. 30000 to 12000 14C years before present) atmospheric CO2 trends to delta13C patterns in a tree species (Pinus flexilis, Juniperus sp.), a megaherbivore (bison, Bison antiquus) and a large carnivore (dire wolf, Canis dirus) from the La Brea tar pits (southern California, USA) and Great Basin (western USA). Contrary to previous expectations, we found that the environmental isotope pattern is better represented with increasing trophic level. Our results indicate that museum specimens of large carnivores would best reflect large-scale spatial and temporal patterns of carbon isotopes in the palaeontological record because top predators can act as ecological integrators of environmental change.