No evidence that warmer temperatures are associated with selection for smaller body sizes

Body size decline during thermal evolution is only detected at mild temperature

Body size is a key morphological trait that affects physiology and metabolism, as well as other relevant traits such as fertility and mating success. Some evidence points to a trend of shrinking body size with increasing temperature, but this is far from unequivocal. Here, we assess the evolution of body size under a warming environment in experimentally evolved Drosophila subobscura populations from two distinct geographical origins, tested in both ancestral and warming environments. We observed a decrease in body size in the warming populations, but only in the lower-latitude populations and only when tested in the ancestral (control) environment. The absence of a body size response in the warming environment may be owing to a balance between forces promoting thermodynamic stability-leading to a tendency for body size to decrease-and selection for increased reproductive output-leading to an increase in body size. Our findings indicate that body size variation is complex, with genotype-by-environment interactions occurring. This may explain the lack of consistency across studies. This highlights that predictions of body size evolution under climate warming are not straightforward and emphasizes the need for considering intra- and inter-specific variation in future studies.

Assessing the response of marine fish communities to climate change and fishing

Globally, marine fish communities are being altered by climate change and human disturbances. We examined data on global marine fish communities to assess changes in community-weighted mean temperature affinity (i.e., mean temperatures within geographic ranges), maximum length, and trophic levels, which, respectively, represent the physiological, morphological, and trophic characteristics of marine fish communities. Then, we explored the influence of climate change and fishing on these characteristics because of their long-term role in shaping fish communities, especially their interactive effects. We employed spatial linear mixed models to investigate their impacts on community-weighted mean trait values and on abundance of different fish lengths and trophic groups. Globally, we observed an initial increasing trend in the temperature affinity of marine fish communities, whereas the weighted mean length and trophic levels of fish communities showed a declining trend. However, these shift trends were not significant, likely due to the large variation in midlatitude communities. Fishing pressure increased fish communities' temperature affinity in regions experiencing climate warming. Furthermore, climate warming was associated with an increase in weighted mean length and trophic levels of fish communities. Low climate baseline temperature appeared to mitigate the effect of climate warming on temperature affinity and trophic levels. The effect of climate warming on the relative abundance of different trophic classes and size classes both exhibited a nonlinear pattern. The small and relatively large fish species may benefit from climate warming, whereas the medium and largest size groups may be disadvantaged. Our results highlight the urgency of establishing stepping-stone marine protected areas to facilitate the migration of fishes to habitats in a warming ocean. Moreover, reducing human disturbance is crucial to mitigate rapid tropicalization, particularly in vulnerable temperate regions.

Heat and desiccation tolerances predict bee abundance under climate change

Climate change could pose an urgent threat to pollinators, with critical ecological and economic consequences. However, for most insect pollinator species, we lack the long-term data and mechanistic evidence that are necessary to identify climate-driven declines and predict future trends. Here we document 16 years of abundance patterns for a hyper-diverse bee assemblage1 in a warming and drying region2, link bee declines with experimentally determined heat and desiccation tolerances, and use climate sensitivity models to project bee communities into the future. Aridity strongly predicted bee abundance for 71% of 665 bee populations (species × ecosystem combinations). Bee taxa that best tolerated heat and desiccation increased the most over time. Models forecasted declines for 46% of species and predicted more homogeneous communities dominated by drought-tolerant taxa, even while total bee abundance may remain unchanged. Such community reordering could reduce pollination services, because diverse bee assemblages typically maximize pollination for plant communities3. Larger-bodied bees also dominated under intermediate to high aridity, identifying body size as a valuable trait for understanding how climate-driven shifts in bee communities influence pollination4. We provide evidence that climate change directly threatens bee diversity, indicating that bee conservation efforts should account for the stress of aridity on bee physiology.

Thermoregulatory consequences of growing up during a heatwave or a cold snap in Japanese quail

Changes in environmental temperature during development can affect growth, metabolism and temperature tolerance of the offspring. We know little about whether such changes remain to adulthood, which is important to understand the links between climate change, development and fitness. We investigated whether phenotypic consequences of the thermal environment in early life remained in adulthood in two studies on Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica). Birds were raised under simulated heatwave, cold snap or control conditions, from hatching until halfway through the growth period, and then in common garden conditions until reproductively mature. We measured biometric and thermoregulatory [metabolic heat production (MHP), evaporative water and heat loss (EWL, EHL) and body temperature] responses to variation in submaximal air temperature at the end of the thermal acclimation period and in adulthood. Warm birds had lower MHP than control birds at the end of the thermal acclimation period and, in the warmest temperature studied (40°C), also had higher evaporative cooling capacity compared with controls. No analogous responses were recorded in cold birds, although they had higher EWL than controls in all but the highest test temperature. None of the effects found at the end of the heatwave or cold snap period remained until adulthood. This implies that chicks exposed to higher temperatures could be more prepared to counter heat stress as juveniles but that they do not enjoy any advantages of such developmental conditions when facing high temperatures as adults. Conversely, cold temperature does not seem to confer any priming effects in adolescence.

Human pressures modulate climate-warming-induced changes in size spectra of stream fish communities

Climate warming can negatively affect the body size of ectothermic organisms and, based on known temperature-size rules, tends to benefit small-bodied organisms. Our understanding of the interactive effects of climate warming and other environmental factors on the temporal changes of body size structure is limited. We quantified the annual trends in size spectra of 583 stream fish communities sampled for more than 20 years across France. The results show that climate warming steepened the slope of the community size spectrum in streams with limited impacts from other human pressures. These changes were caused by increasing abundance of small-bodied individuals and decreasing abundance of large-bodied individuals. However, opposite effects of climate warming on the size spectrum slopes were observed in streams facing high levels of other human pressures. This demonstrates that the effects of temperature on body size structure can depend on other human pressures, disrupting the natural patterns of size spectra in wild communities with potentially strong implications for the fluxes of energy and nutrients in ecosystems.

Eco-Evolutionary Consequences of Dispersal Syndromes during Colonization in a Passerine Bird

AbstractIn most animal species, dispersing individuals possess phenotypic attributes that mitigate the costs of colonization and/or increase settlement success in new areas (dispersal syndromes). This phenotypic integration likely affects population dynamics and the direction of selection, but data are lacking for natural populations. Using an approach that combines population dynamics, quantitative genetics, and phenotypic selection analyses, we reveal the existence of dispersal syndromes in a pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population in the Netherlands: immigrants were larger, tended to have darker plumage, bred earlier, and produced larger clutches than local recruits, and some of these traits were genetically correlated. Over time, the phenotypic profile of the population gradually changed: each generation advanced arrival and breeding and exhibited longer wings as a result of direct and indirect selection on these correlated traits. Although phenotypic attributes of immigrants were favored by selection during the early phase of colonization, observed phenotypic changes were similar for immigrants and local recruits. We propose that immigrants facilitated initial population establishment but that temporal changes likely resulted from climate change-induced large-scale selection. This study highlights that newly established populations are of nonrandom composition and that phenotypic architecture affects evolutionary population trajectories.

Stress tolerance is influenced by artificial light at night during development and life-history strategy

Artificial light at night (ALAN) is increasingly prevalent worldwide, but life-history strategy may mitigate the costs of ALAN for animals. Yet, interactions among ALAN, life-history strategy and tolerance to climate-related stressors are unknown. We determined if developmental ALAN exposure (1) affects development, (2) affects adult phenotype, including heat and desiccation tolerance, and (3) affects and/or interacts with life-history strategy. We used the variable field cricket (Gryllus lineaticeps) because its geographic range is increasingly exposed to ALAN, heat, and drought conditions, and it exhibits different life-history strategies (flight-capability versus flight-incapability). ALAN affected adult phenotype, with positive effects on body mass (and size) and female reproductive investment, and a negative effect on heat tolerance. Life-history strategy also affected stress tolerance; flight-incapable females had greater heat tolerance and their desiccation tolerance was improved by ALAN exposure. Key features of environmental change (i.e. exposure to ALAN, heat and drought) may favor some life-history strategies over others.

Leveraging natural history collections to understand the impacts of global change

This joint Special Feature focuses on the contributions and potential of natural history collections to address global change questions.

Of telomeres and temperature: Measuring thermal effects on telomeres in ectothermic animals

Ectotherms are classic models for understanding life-history tradeoffs, including the reproduction-somatic maintenance tradeoffs that may be reflected in telomere length and their dynamics. Importantly, life-history traits of ectotherms are tightly linked to their thermal environment, with diverse or synergistic mechanistic explanations underpinning the variation. Telomere dynamics potentially provide a mechanistic link that can be used to monitor thermal effects on individuals in response to climatic perturbations. Growth rate, age and developmental stage are all affected by temperature, which interacts with telomere dynamics in complex and intriguing ways. The physiological processes underpinning telomere dynamics can be visualized and understood using thermal performance curves (TPCs). TPCs reflect the evolutionary history and the thermal environment during an individual's ontogeny. Telomere maintenance should be enhanced at or near the thermal performance optimum of a species, population and individual. The thermal sensitivity of telomere dynamics should reflect the interacting TPCs of the processes underlying them. The key processes directly underpinning telomere dynamics are mitochondrial function (reactive oxygen production), antioxidant activity, telomerase activity and telomere endcap protein status. We argue that identifying TPCs for these processes will significantly help design robust, repeatable experiments and field studies of telomere dynamics in ectotherms. Conceptually, TPCs are a valuable framework to predict and interpret taxon- and population-specific telomere dynamics across thermal regimes. The literature of thermal effects on telomeres in ectotherms is sparse and mostly limited to vertebrates, but our conclusions and recommendations are relevant across ectothermic animals.

Abiotic conditions shape spatial and temporal morphological variation in North American birds

Quantifying environment-morphology relationships is important not only for understanding the fundamental processes driving phenotypic diversity within and among species but also for predicting how species will respond to ongoing global change. Despite a clear set of expectations motivated by ecological theory, broad evidence in support of generalizable effects of abiotic conditions on spatial and temporal intraspecific morphological variation has been limited. Using standardized data from >250,000 captures of 105 landbird species, we assessed intraspecific shifts in the morphology of adult male birds since 1989 while simultaneously measuring spatial morphological gradients across the North American continent. We found strong spatial and temporal trends in average body size, with warmer temperatures associated with smaller body sizes both at more equatorial latitudes and in more recent years. The magnitude of these thermal effects varied both across and within species, with results suggesting it is the warmest, rather than the coldest, temperatures that drive both spatial and temporal trends. Stronger responses to spatial-rather than temporal-variation in temperature suggest that morphological change may not be keeping up with the pace of climate change. Additionally, as elevation increases, we found that body size declines as relative wing length increases, probably due to the benefits that longer wings confer for flight in thin air environments. Our results provide support for both existing and new large-scale ecomorphological 'rules' and highlight how the response of functional trade-offs to abiotic variation drives morphological change.

Thermal adaptation best explains Bergmann's and Allen's Rules across ecologically diverse shorebirds

Bergmann's and Allen's rules state that endotherms should be larger and have shorter appendages in cooler climates. However, the drivers of these rules are not clear. Both rules could be explained by adaptation for improved thermoregulation, including plastic responses to temperature in early life. Non-thermal explanations are also plausible as climate impacts other factors that influence size and shape, including starvation risk, predation risk, and foraging ecology. We assess the potential drivers of Bergmann's and Allen's rules in 30 shorebird species using extensive field data (>200,000 observations). We show birds in hot, tropical northern Australia have longer bills and smaller bodies than conspecifics in temperate, southern Australia, conforming with both ecogeographical rules. This pattern is consistent across ecologically diverse species, including migratory birds that spend early life in the Arctic. Our findings best support the hypothesis that thermoregulatory adaptation to warm climates drives latitudinal patterns in shorebird size and shape.

Energetic constraints on body-size niches in a resource-limited marine environment

Body size of life on the Earth spans many orders of magnitude, and with it scales the energetic requirements of organisms. Thus, changes in environmental energy should impact community body-size distributions in predictable ways by reshaping ecological and niche dynamics. We examine how carbon, oxygen and temperature, three energetic drivers, impact community size-based assembly in deep-sea bivalves. We demonstrate that body-size distributions are influenced by multiple energetic constraints. Relaxation in these constraints leads to an expansion of body-size niche space through the addition of novel large size classes, increasing the standard deviation and mean of the body-size distribution. With continued Anthropogenic increases in temperature and reductions in carbon availability and oxygen in most ocean basins, our results point to possible radical shifts in invertebrate body size with the potential to impact ecosystem function.

Trans- and Within-Generational Developmental Plasticity May Benefit the Prey but Not Its Predator during Heat Waves

Theoretically, parents can adjust vital offspring traits to the irregular and rapid occurrence of heat waves via developmental plasticity. However, the direction and strength of such trait modifications are often species-specific. Here, we investigated within-generational plasticity (WGP) and trans-generational plasticity (TGP) effects induced by heat waves during the offspring development of the predator Phytoseiulus persimilis and its herbivorous prey, the spider mite Tetranychus urticae, to assess plastic developmental modifications. Single offspring individuals with different parental thermal origin (reared under mild or extreme heat waves) of both species were exposed to mild or extreme heat waves until adulthood, and food consumption, age and size at maturity were recorded. The offspring traits were influenced by within-generational plasticity (WGP), trans-generational plasticity (TGP), non-plastic trans-generational effects (TGE) and/or their interactions. When exposed to extreme heat waves, both species speeded up development (exclusively WGP), consumed more (due to the fact of WGP but also to TGP in prey females and to non-plastic TGE in predator males), and predator females got smaller (non-plastic TGE and WGP), whereas prey males and females were equally sized irrespective of their origin, because TGE, WGP and TGP acted in opposite directions. The body sizes of predator males were insensitive to parental and offspring heat wave conditions. Species comparisons indicated stronger reductions in the developmental time and reduced female predator-prey body size ratios in favor of the prey under extreme heat waves. Further investigations are needed to evaluate, whether trait modifications result in lowered suppression success of the predator on its prey under heat waves or not.

Phenotypic responses to climate change are significantly dampened in big-brained birds

Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly altering local environments and threatening biodiversity throughout the world. Although many wildlife responses to this phenomenon appear largely idiosyncratic, a wealth of basic research on this topic is enabling the identification of general patterns across taxa. Here, we expand those efforts by investigating how avian responses to climate change are affected by the ability to cope with ecological variation through behavioural flexibility (as measured by relative brain size). After accounting for the effects of phylogenetic uncertainty and interspecific variation in adaptive potential, we confirm that although climate warming is generally correlated with major body size reductions in North American migrants, these responses are significantly weaker in species with larger relative brain sizes. Our findings suggest that cognition can play an important role in organismal responses to global change by actively buffering individuals from the environmental effects of warming temperatures.

The pace of modern life, revisited

Wild populations must continuously respond to environmental changes or they risk extinction. Those responses can be measured as phenotypic rates of change, which can allow us to predict contemporary adaptive responses, some of which are evolutionary. About two decades ago, a database of phenotypic rates of change in wild populations was compiled. Since then, researchers have used (and expanded) this database to examine phenotypic responses to specific types of human disturbance. Here, we update the database by adding 5675 new estimates of phenotypic change. Using this newer version of the data base, now containing 7338 estimates of phenotypic change, we revisit the conclusions of four published articles. We then synthesize the expanded database to compare rates of change across different types of human disturbance. Analyses of this expanded database suggest that: (i) a small absolute difference in rates of change exists between human disturbed and natural populations, (ii) harvesting by humans results in higher rates of change than other types of disturbance, (iii) introduced populations have increased rates of change, and (iv) body size does not increase through time. Thus, findings from earlier analyses have largely held-up in analyses of our new database that encompass a much larger breadth of species, traits, and human disturbances. Lastly, we use new analyses to explore how various types of human disturbances affect rates of phenotypic change, and we call for this database to serve as a steppingstone for further analyses to understand patterns of contemporary phenotypic change.

Rapid evolution of life-history traits in response to warming, predation and competition: A meta-analysis

Although studies quantifying evolutionary change in response to the selective pressures that organisms face in the wild have demonstrated that organisms can evolve rapidly, we lack a systematic assessment of the frequency, magnitude and direction of rapid evolutionary change across taxa. To address this gap, we conducted a meta-analysis of 58 studies that document the effects of warming, predation or competition on the evolution of body size, development rate or fecundity in natural or experimental animal populations. We tested whether there was a consistent effect of any selective agent on any trait, whether the direction of these effects align with theoretical predictions, and whether the three agents select in opposing directions on any trait. Overall, we found weak effects of all three selective agents on trait evolution: none of our nine traits by selective agent combinations had an overall effect that differed from zero, only 31% of studies had a significant within-study effect, and attributes of the included studies generally did not account for between-study variation in results. One notable exception was that predation targeting adults consistently resulted in the evolution of smaller prey body size. We discuss potential causes of these generally weak responses and consider how our results inform the ongoing development of eco-evolutionary research.

Genetic variation for upper thermal tolerance diminishes within and between populations with increasing acclimation temperature in Atlantic salmon

Populations may counteract lasting temperature changes or recurrent extremes through plasticity or adaptation. However, it remains underexplored how outbreeding, either naturally, unintentionally, or facilitated, may modify a local response potential and whether genotype-by-environment interactions or between-trait correlations can restrict this potential. We quantified population differences and outbreeding effects, within-population genetic variation, and plasticity of these, for thermal performance proxy traits using 32 pedigreed wild, domesticated, and wild-domesticated Atlantic salmon families reared under common-garden conditions. Following exposure to ambient cold (11.6 °C) or ~4° and ~8° warmer summer temperatures, populations differed notably for body length and critical thermal maximum (CT_max) and for thermal plasticity of length, condition, and CT_max, but not for haematocrit. Line-cross analysis suggested mostly additive and some dominant outbreeding effects on means and solely additive outbreeding effects on plasticity. Heritability was detected for all traits. However, with increasing acclimation temperature, differences in CT_max between populations and CT_max heritability diminished, and CT_max breeding values re-ranked. Furthermore, CT_max and body size were negatively correlated at the genetic and phenotypic levels, and there was indirect evidence for a positive correlation between growth potential and thermal performance breadth for growth. Thus, population differences (including those between wild and domesticated populations) in thermal performance and plasticity may present a genetic resource in addition to the within-population genetic variance to facilitate, or impede, thermal adaptation. However, unfavourable genotype-by-environment interactions and negative between-trait correlations may generally hamper joint evolution in response to an increase in average temperature and temporary extremes.

The importance of pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection promoting adaptation to increasing temperatures

Global temperatures are increasing rapidly affecting species globally. Understanding if and how different species can adapt fast enough to keep up with increasing temperatures is of vital importance. One mechanism that can accelerate adaptation and promote evolutionary rescue is sexual selection. Two different mechanisms by which sexual selection can facilitate adaptation are pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection. However, the relative effects of these different forms of sexual selection in promoting adaptation are unknown. Here, we present the results from an experimental study in which we exposed fruit flies Drosophila melanogaster to either no mate choice or 1 of 2 different sexual selection regimes (pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection) for 6 generations, under different thermal regimes. Populations showed evidence of thermal adaptation under precopulatory sexual selection, but this effect was not detected in the postcopulatory sexual selection and the no choice mating regime. We further demonstrate that sexual dimorphism decreased when flies evolved under increasing temperatures, consistent with recent theory predicting more sexually concordant selection under environmental stress. Our results suggest an important role for precopulatory sexual selection in promoting thermal adaptation and evolutionary rescue.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub

The integration and synthesis of the data in different areas of science is drastically slowed and hindered by a lack of standards and networking programmes. Long-term studies of individually marked animals are not an exception. These studies are especially important as instrumental for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes in the wild. Furthermore, their number and global distribution provides a unique opportunity to assess the generality of patterns and to address broad-scale global issues (e.g. climate change). To solve data integration issues and enable a new scale of ecological and evolutionary research based on long-term studies of birds, we have created the SPI-Birds Network and Database (www.spibirds.org)-a large-scale initiative that connects data from, and researchers working on, studies of wild populations of individually recognizable (usually ringed) birds. Within year and a half since the establishment, SPI-Birds has recruited over 120 members, and currently hosts data on almost 1.5 million individual birds collected in 80 populations over 2,000 cumulative years, and counting. SPI-Birds acts as a data hub and a catalogue of studied populations. It prevents data loss, secures easy data finding, use and integration and thus facilitates collaboration and synthesis. We provide community-derived data and meta-data standards and improve data integrity guided by the principles of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR), and aligned with the existing metadata languages (e.g. ecological meta-data language). The encouraging community involvement stems from SPI-Bird's decentralized approach: research groups retain full control over data use and their way of data management, while SPI-Birds creates tailored pipelines to convert each unique data format into a standard format. We outline the lessons learned, so that other communities (e.g. those working on other taxa) can adapt our successful model. Creating community-specific hubs (such as ours, COMADRE for animal demography, etc.) will aid much-needed large-scale ecological data integration.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

Spawning substrate shift associated with the evolution of a female sexual characteristic in a family of fishes

Because ‘primary’ sexual characteristics (i.e. those directly associated with reproduction) can be extremely variable, evolve quickly, and can be impacted by both natural and sexual selection, they are often considered excellent model systems in which to study evolution. Here, we explore the evolution of the anal sheath, a trait hypothesized to facilitate the release and proper placement of eggs on the spawning substrate, and its relationship to spawning habitat and maximum body size in a family of fish (Fundulidae). In addition to using phylogenetically informed statistics to determine the role of preferred spawning habitat and maximum body size on the evolution of anal sheath length, we reconstruct the evolutionary history of the anal sheath and preferred spawning habitat. We then test for significant phylogenetic signal and evolutionary rate shifts in the size of the anal sheath and the preferred spawning habitat. Our results indicate that preferred spawning habitat, and not maximum body length, significantly influences anal sheath size, which is associated with a significant phylogenetic signal, and an evolutionary rate similar to that of preferred spawning substrate. We discuss these results in terms of potential evolutionary mechanisms driving anal sheath length.

Habitat loss, predation pressure and episodic heat-shocks interact to impact arthropods and photosynthetic functioning of microecosystems

Ecosystems face multiple, potentially interacting, anthropogenic pressures that can modify biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Using a bryophyte-microarthropod microecosystem we tested the combined effects of habitat loss, episodic heat-shocks and an introduced non-native apex predator on ecosystem function (chlorophyll fluorescence as an indicator of photosystem II function) and microarthropod communities (abundance and body size). The photosynthetic function was degraded by the sequence of heat-shock episodes, but unaffected by microecosystem patch size or top-down pressure from the introduced predator. In small microecosystem patches without the non-native predator, Acari abundance decreased with heat-shock frequency, while Collembola abundance increased. These trends disappeared in larger microecosystem patches or when predators were introduced, although Acari abundance was lower in large patches that underwent heat-shocks and were exposed to the predator. Mean assemblage body length (Collembola) was reduced independently in small microecosystem patches and with greater heat-shock frequency. Our experimental simulation of episodic heatwaves, habitat loss and non-native predation pressure in microecosystems produced evidence of individual and potentially synergistic and antagonistic effects on ecosystem function and microarthropod communities. Such complex outcomes of interactions between multiple stressors need to be considered when assessing anthropogenic risks for biota and ecosystem functioning.

Natural and human-induced environmental changes and their effects on adaptive potential of wild animal populations

A major challenge of evolutionary ecology over the next decades is to understand and predict the consequences of the current rapid and important environmental changes on wild populations. Extinction risk of species is linked to populations' evolutionary potential and to their ability to express adaptive phenotypic plasticity. There is thus a vital need to quantify how selective pressures, quantitative genetics parameters, and phenotypic plasticity, for multiple traits in wild animal populations, may vary with changes in the environment. Here I review our previous research that integrated ecological and evolutionary theories with molecular ecology, quantitative genetics, and long-term monitoring of individually marked wild animals. Our results showed that assessing evolutionary and plastic changes over time and space, using multi-trait approaches, under a realistic range of environmental conditions are crucial steps toward improving our understanding of the evolution and adaptation of natural populations. Our current and future work focusses on assessing the limits of adaptive potential by determining the factors constraining the evolvability of plasticity, those generating covariation among genetic variance and selection, as well as indirect genetic effects, which can affect population's capacity to adjust to environmental changes. In doing so, we aim to provide an improved assessment of the spatial and temporal scale of evolutionary processes in wild animal populations.

Recent warming reduces the reproductive advantage of large size and contributes to evolutionary downsizing in nature

Body size is a key functional trait that is predicted to decline under warming. Warming is known to cause size declines via phenotypic plasticity, but evolutionary responses of body size to warming are poorly understood. To test for warming-induced evolutionary responses of body size and growth rates, we used populations of mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) recently established (less than 100 years) from a common source across a strong thermal gradient (19–33°C) created by geothermal springs. Each spring is remarkably stable in temperature and is virtually closed to gene flow from other thermal environments. Field surveys show that with increasing site temperature, body size distributions become smaller and the reproductive advantage of larger body size decreases. After common rearing to reveal recently evolved trait differences, warmer-source populations expressed slowed juvenile growth rates and increased reproductive effort at small sizes. These results are consistent with an adaptive basis of the plastic temperature–size rule, and they suggest that temperature itself can drive the evolution of countergradient variation in growth rates. The rapid evolution of reduced juvenile growth rates and greater reproduction at a small size should contribute to substantial body downsizing in populations, with implications for population dynamics and for ecosystems in a warming world.

The 'algebra of evolution': the Robertson-Price identity and viability selection for body mass in a wild bird population

By the Robertson–Price identity, the change in a quantitative trait owing to selection, is equal to the trait's covariance with relative fitness. In this study, we applied the identity to long-term data on superb fairy-wrens Malurus cyaneus, to estimate phenotypic and genetic change owing to juvenile viability selection. Mortality in the four-week period between fledging and independence was 40%, and heavier nestlings were more likely to survive, but why? There was additive genetic variance for both nestling mass and survival, and a positive phenotypic covariance between the traits, but no evidence of additive genetic covariance. Comparing standardized gradients, the phenotypic selection gradient was positive, β_P = 0.108 (0.036, 0.187 95% CI), whereas the genetic gradient was not different from zero, β_A = −0.025 (−0.19, 0.107 95% CI). This suggests that factors other than nestling mass were the cause of variation in survival. In particular, there were temporal correlations between mass and survival both within and between years. We suggest that use of the Price equation to describe cross-generational change in the wild may be challenging, but a more modest aim of estimating its first term, the Robertson–Price identity, to assess within-generation change can provide valuable insights into the processes shaping phenotypic diversity in natural populations.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Fifty years of the Price equation’.

Australian songbird body size tracks climate variation: 82 species over 50 years

The observed variation in the body size responses of endotherms to climate change may be explained by two hypotheses: the size increases with climate variability (the starvation resistance hypothesis) and the size shrinks as mean temperatures rise (the heat exchange hypothesis). Across 82 Australian passerine species over 50 years, shrinking was associated with annual mean temperature rise exceeding 0.012°C driven by rising winter temperatures for arid and temperate zone species. We propose the warming winters hypothesis to explain this response. However, where average summer temperatures exceeded 34°C, species experiencing annual rise over 0.0116°C tended towards increasing size. Results suggest a broad-scale physiological response to changing climate, with size trends probably reflecting the relative strength of selection pressures across a climatic regime. Critically, a given amount of temperature change will have varying effects on phenotype depending on the season in which it occurs, masking the generality of size patterns associated with temperature change. Rather than phenotypic plasticity, and assuming body size is heritable, results suggest selective loss or gain of particular phenotypes could generate evolutionary change but may be difficult to detect with current warming rates.

No evidence that warmer temperatures are associated with selection for smaller body sizes

Reductions in animal body size over recent decades are often interpreted as an adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming. However, for reductions in size to reflect adaptive evolution, directional selection on body size within populations must have become negative, or where already negative, to have become more so, as temperatures increased. To test this hypothesis, we performed traditional and phylogenetic meta-analyses of the association between annual estimates of directional selection on body size from wild populations and annual mean temperatures from 39 longitudinal studies. We found no evidence that warmer environments were associated with selection for smaller size. Instead, selection consistently favoured larger individuals, and was invariant to temperature. These patterns were similar in ectotherms and endotherms. An analysis using year rather than temperature revealed similar patterns, suggesting no evidence that selection has changed over time, and also indicating that the lack of association with annual temperature was not an artefact of choosing an erroneous time window for aggregating the temperature data. Although phenotypic trends in size will be driven by a combination of genetic and environmental factors, our results suggest little evidence for a necessary ingredient-negative directional selection-for declines in body size to be considered an adaptive evolutionary response to changing selection pressures.