Ecological constraints coupled with deep-time habitat dynamics predict the latitudinal diversity gradient in reef fishes

Testing for concordance between predicted species richness, past prioritization, and marine protected area designations in the western Indian Ocean

Scientific advances in environmental data coverage and machine learning algorithms have improved the ability to make large-scale predictions where data are missing. These advances allowed us to develop a spatially resolved proxy for predicting numbers of tropical nearshore marine taxa. A diverse marine environmental spatial database was used to model numbers of taxa from ∼1000 field sites, and the predictions were applied to all 7039 6.25-km2 reef cells in 9 ecoregions and 11 nations of the western Indian Ocean. Our proxy for total numbers of taxa was based on the positive correlation (r2 = 0.24) of numbers of taxa of hard corals and 5 highly diverse reef fish families. Environmental relationships indicated that the number of fish species was largely influenced by biomass, nearness to people, governance, connectivity, and productivity and that coral taxa were influenced mostly by physicochemical environmental variability. At spatial delineations of province, ecoregion, nation, and strength of spatial clustering, we compared areas of conservation priority based on our total species proxy with those identified in 3 previous priority-setting reports and with the protected area database. Our method identified 119 locations that fit 3 numbers of taxa (hard coral, fish, and their combination) and 4 spatial delineations (nation, ecoregion, province, and reef clustering) criteria. Previous publications on priority setting identified 91 priority locations of which 6 were identified by all reports. We identified 12 locations that fit our 12 criteria and corresponded with 3 previously identified locations, 65 that aligned with at least 1 past report, and 28 that were new locations. Only 34% of the 208 marine protected areas in this province overlapped with identified locations with high numbers of predicted taxa. Differences occurred because past priorities were frequently based on unquantified perceptions of remoteness and preselected priority taxa. Our environment-species proxy and modeling approach can be considered among other important criteria for making conservation decisions.

Dispersal-diversity feedbacks and their consequences for macroecological patterns

Dispersal is a key process in ecology and evolution. While the effects of dispersal on diversity are broadly acknowledged, our understanding of the influence of diversity on dispersal remains limited. This arises from the dynamic, context-dependent, nonlinear and ubiquitous nature of dispersal. Diversity outcomes, such as competition, mutualism, parasitism and trophic interactions can feed back on dispersal, thereby influencing biodiversity patterns at several spatio-temporal scales. Here, we shed light on the dispersal-diversity causal links by discussing how dispersal-diversity ecological and evolutionary feedbacks can impact macroecological patterns. We highlight the importance of dispersal-diversity feedbacks for advancing our understanding of macro-eco-evolutionary patterns and their challenges, such as establishing a unified framework for dispersal terminology and methodologies across various disciplines and scales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

Same process, different patterns: pervasive effect of evolutionary time on species richness in freshwater fishes

Tropical lands harbour the highest number of species, resulting in the ubiquitous latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG). However, exceptions to this pattern have been observed in some taxa, explained by the interaction between the evolutionary histories and environmental factors that constrain species' physiological and ecological requirements. Here, we applied a deconstruction approach to map the detailed species richness patterns of Actinopterygian freshwater fishes at the class and order levels and to disentangle their drivers using geographical ranges and a phylogeny, comprising 77% (12 557) of all described species. We jointly evaluated seven evolutionary and ecological hypotheses posited to explain the LDG: diversification rate, time for speciation, species-area relationship, environmental heterogeneity, energy, temperature seasonality and past temperature stability. We found distinct diversity gradients across orders, including expected, bimodal and inverse LDGs. Despite these differences, the positive effect of evolutionary time explained patterns for all orders, where species-rich regions are inhabited by older species compared to species-poor regions. Overall, the LDG of each order has been shaped by a unique combination of factors, highlighting the importance of performing a joint evaluation of evolutionary, historical and ecological factors at different taxonomic levels to reach a comprehensive understanding on the causes driving global species richness patterns.

Climatic and tectonic drivers shaped the tropical distribution of coral reefs

Today, warm-water coral reefs are limited to tropical-to-subtropical latitudes. These diverse ecosystems extended further poleward in the geological past, but the mechanisms driving these past distributions remain uncertain. Here, we test the role of climate and palaeogeography in shaping the distribution of coral reefs over geological timescales. To do so, we combine habitat suitability modelling, Earth System modelling and the ~247-million-year geological record of scleractinian coral reefs. A broader latitudinal distribution of climatically suitable habitat persisted throughout much of the Mesozoic-early Paleogene due to an expanded tropical belt and more equable distribution of shallow marine substrate. The earliest Cretaceous might be an exception, with reduced shallow marine substrate during a 'cold-snap' interval. Climatically suitable habitat area became increasingly skewed towards the tropics from the late Paleogene, likely steepening the latitudinal biodiversity gradient of reef-associated taxa. This was driven by global cooling and increases in tropical shallow marine substrate resulting from the tectonic evolution of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Although our results suggest global warming might permit long-term poleward range expansions, coral reef ecosystems are unlikely to keep pace with the rapid rate of anthropogenic climate change.

Influence of phylogenetic scale on the relationships of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnovers with environment for angiosperms in China

We aim to assess the influence of phylogenetic scale on the relationships of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnovers with environment for angiosperms in China. Specifically, we quantify the effects of contemporary climate on β-diversity at different phylogenetic scales representing different evolutionary depths of angiosperms. We sampled a latitudinal gradient and a longitudinal gradient of angiosperm assemblages across China (each ≥3400 km). Species composition in each assemblage was documented. Three metrics of β-diversity (βsim.tax measuring taxonomic β-diversity; βsim.phy and Dpw measuring tip- and basal-weighted phylogenetic β-diversity, respectively) were quantified among assemblages at sequential depths in the evolutionary history of angiosperms from the tips to deeper branches. This was done by slicing the angiosperm phylogenetic tree at six evolutionary depths (0, 15, 30, 45, 60, and 75 million years ago). β-diversity at each evolutionary depth was related to geographic and climatic distances between assemblages. In general, the relationship between β-diversity and climatic distance decreased from shallow to deep evolutionary time slice for all the three metrics. The slopes of the decreasing trends for βsim.tax and βsim.phy were much steeper for the latitudinal gradient than for the longitudinal gradient. The decreasing trend of the strength of the relationship was monotonic in all cases except for Dpw across the longitudinal gradient. Geographic distance between assemblages explained little variation in β-diversity that was not explained by climatic distance. Our study shows that the strength of the relationship between β-diversity and climatic distance decreases conspicuously from shallow to deep evolutionary depth for the latitudinal gradient, but this decreasing trend is less steep for the longitudinal gradient than for the latitudinal gradient, which likely reflects the influence of historical processes (e.g., the collision of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate) on β-diversity.

Influence of historical changes in tropical reef habitat on the diversification of coral reef fishes

Past environmental changes are expected to have profoundly impacted diversity dynamics through time. While some previous studies showed an association between past climate changes or tectonic events and important shifts in lineage diversification, it is only recently that past environmental changes have been explicitly integrated in diversification models to test their influence on diversification rates. Here, we used a global reconstruction of tropical reef habitat dynamics during the Cenozoic and phylogenetic diversification models to test the influence of (i) major geological events, (ii) reef habitat fragmentation and (iii) reef area on the diversification of 9 major clades of tropical reef fish (Acanthuridae, Balistoidea, Carangoidea, Chaetodontidae, Haemulinae, Holocentridae, Labridae, Pomacentridae and Sparidae). The diversification models revealed a weak association between paleo-habitat changes and diversification dynamics. Specifically, the fragmentation of tropical reef habitats over the Cenozoic was found to be a driver of tropical reef fish diversification for 2 clades. However, overall, our approach did not allow the identification of striking associations between diversification dynamics and paleo-habitat fragmentation in contrast with theoretical model's predictions.

Trait similarity in reef fish faunas across the world's oceans

Species' traits, rather than taxonomic identities, determine community assembly and ecosystem functioning, yet biogeographic patterns have been far less studied for traits. While both environmental conditions and evolutionary history shape trait biogeography, their relative contributions are largely unknown for most organisms. Here, we explore the global biogeography of reef fish traits for 2,786 species from 89 ecoregions spanning eight marine realms with contrasting environmental conditions and evolutionary histories. Across realms, we found a common structure in the distribution of species traits despite a 10-fold gradient in species richness, with a defined "backbone" of 21 trait combinations shared by all realms globally, both temperate and tropical. Across ecoregions, assemblages under similar environmental conditions had similar trait compositions despite hosting drastically different species pools from separate evolutionary lineages. Thus, despite being separated by thousands of kilometers and millions of years of evolution, similar environments host similar trait compositions in reef fish assemblages worldwide. Our findings suggest that similar trait-based management strategies can be applied among regions with distinct species pools, potentially improving conservation outcomes across diverse jurisdictions.

gen3sis: A general engine for eco-evolutionary simulations of the processes that shape Earth's biodiversity

Understanding the origins of biodiversity has been an aspiration since the days of early naturalists. The immense complexity of ecological, evolutionary, and spatial processes, however, has made this goal elusive to this day. Computer models serve progress in many scientific fields, but in the fields of macroecology and macroevolution, eco-evolutionary models are comparatively less developed. We present a general, spatially explicit, eco-evolutionary engine with a modular implementation that enables the modeling of multiple macroecological and macroevolutionary processes and feedbacks across representative spatiotemporally dynamic landscapes. Modeled processes can include species' abiotic tolerances, biotic interactions, dispersal, speciation, and evolution of ecological traits. Commonly observed biodiversity patterns, such as α, β, and γ diversity, species ranges, ecological traits, and phylogenies, emerge as simulations proceed. As an illustration, we examine alternative hypotheses expected to have shaped the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) during the Earth's Cenozoic era. Our exploratory simulations simultaneously produce multiple realistic biodiversity patterns, such as the LDG, current species richness, and range size frequencies, as well as phylogenetic metrics. The model engine is open source and available as an R package, enabling future exploration of various landscapes and biological processes, while outputs can be linked with a variety of empirical biodiversity patterns. This work represents a key toward a numeric, interdisciplinary, and mechanistic understanding of the physical and biological processes that shape Earth's biodiversity.

Ecological constraints coupled with deep-time habitat dynamics predict the latitudinal diversity gradient in reef fishes

We develop a spatially explicit model of diversification based on palaeohabitat to explore the predictions of four major hypotheses potentially explaining the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), namely, the 'time-area', 'tropical niche conservatism', 'ecological limits' and 'evolutionary speed' hypotheses. We compare simulation outputs to observed diversity gradients in the global reef fish fauna. Our simulations show that these hypotheses are non-mutually exclusive and that their relative influence depends on the time scale considered. Simulations suggest that reef habitat dynamics produced the LDG during deep geological time, while ecological constraints shaped the modern LDG, with a strong influence of the reduction in the latitudinal extent of tropical reefs during the Neogene. Overall, this study illustrates how mechanistic models in ecology and evolution can provide a temporal and spatial understanding of the role of speciation, extinction and dispersal in generating biodiversity patterns.