The apparent exponential radiation of Phanerozoic land vertebrates is an artefact of spatial sampling biases

Reliable biogeography requires fossils: insights from a new species-level phylogeny of extinct and living carnivores

A central objective of historical biogeography is to understand where clades originated and how they moved across space and over time. However, given the dynamic history of ecosystem changes in response to climate change and geological events, the manifold long-distance dispersals over evolutionary timescales, and regional and global extinctions, it remains uncertain how reliable inferences based solely on extant taxa can be achieved. Using a novel species-level phylogeny of all known extant and extinct species of the mammalian order Carnivora and related extinct groups, we show that far more precise and accurate ancestral areas can be estimated by fully integrating extinct species into the analyses, rather than solely relying on extant species or identifying ancestral areas only based on the geography of the oldest fossils. Through a series of simulations, we further show that this conclusion is robust under realistic scenarios in which the unknown extinct taxa represent a biased subset of all extinct species. Our results highlight the importance of integrating fossil taxa into a phylogenetic framework to further improve our understanding of historical biogeography and reveal the dynamic dispersal and diversification history of carnivores.

Late Cretaceous ammonoids show that drivers of diversification are regionally heterogeneous

Palaeontologists have long sought to explain the diversification of individual clades to whole biotas at global scales. Advances in our understanding of the spatial distribution of the fossil record through geological time, however, has demonstrated that global trends in biodiversity were a mosaic of regionally heterogeneous diversification processes. Drivers of diversification must presumably have also displayed regional variation to produce the spatial disparities observed in past taxonomic richness. Here, we analyse the fossil record of ammonoids, pelagic shelled cephalopods, through the Late Cretaceous, characterised by some palaeontologists as an interval of biotic decline prior to their total extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. We regionally subdivide this record to eliminate the impacts of spatial sampling biases and infer regional origination and extinction rates corrected for temporal sampling biases using Bayesian methods. We then model these rates using biotic and abiotic drivers commonly inferred to influence diversification. Ammonoid diversification dynamics and responses to this common set of diversity drivers were regionally heterogeneous, do not support ecological decline, and demonstrate that their global diversification signal is influenced by spatial disparities in sampling effort. These results call into question the feasibility of seeking drivers of diversity at global scales in the fossil record.

DeepDive: estimating global biodiversity patterns through time using deep learning

Understanding how biodiversity has changed through time is a central goal of evolutionary biology. However, estimates of past biodiversity are challenged by the inherent incompleteness of the fossil record, even when state-of-the-art statistical methods are applied to adjust estimates while correcting for sampling biases. Here we develop an approach based on stochastic simulations of biodiversity and a deep learning model to infer richness at global or regional scales through time while incorporating spatial, temporal and taxonomic sampling variation. Our method outperforms alternative approaches across simulated datasets, especially at large spatial scales, providing robust palaeodiversity estimates under a wide range of preservation scenarios. We apply our method on two empirical datasets of different taxonomic and temporal scope: the Permian-Triassic record of marine animals and the Cenozoic evolution of proboscideans. Our estimates provide a revised quantitative assessment of two mass extinctions in the marine record and reveal rapid diversification of proboscideans following their expansion out of Africa and a >70% diversity drop in the Pleistocene.

The decline and fall of the mammalian stem

The mammalian crown originated during the Mesozoic and subsequently radiated into the substantial array of forms now extant. However, for about 100 million years before the crown's origin, a diverse array of stem mammalian lineages dominated terrestrial ecosystems. Several of these stem lineages overlapped temporally and geographically with the crown mammals during the Mesozoic, but by the end of the Cretaceous crown mammals make up the overwhelming majority of the fossil record. The progress of this transition between ecosystems dominated by stem mammals and those dominated by crown mammals is not entirely clear, in part due to a distinct separation of analyses and datasets. Analyses of macroevolutionary patterns tend to focus on either the Mammaliaformes or the non-mammalian cynodonts, with little overlap in the datasets, preventing direct comparison of the diversification trends. Here I analyse species richness and biogeography of Synapsida as a whole during the Mesozoic, allowing comparison of the patterns in the mammalian crown and stem within a single framework. The analysis reveals the decline of the stem mammals occurred in two discrete phases. The first phase occurred between the Triassic and Middle Jurassic, during which the stem mammals were more restricted in their geographic range than the crown mammals, although within localities their species richness remained at levels seen previously. The second phase was a decline in species richness, which occurred during the Lower Cretaceous. The results show the decline of stem mammals, including tritylodontids and several mammaliaform groups, was not tied to a specific event, nor a gradual decline, but was instead a multiphase transition.

Mechanistic neutral models show that sampling biases drive the apparent explosion of early tetrapod diversity

Estimates of deep-time biodiversity typically rely on statistical methods to mitigate the impacts of sampling biases in the fossil record. However, these methods are limited by the spatial and temporal scale of the underlying data. Here we use a spatially explicit mechanistic model, based on neutral theory, to test hypotheses of early tetrapod diversity change during the late Carboniferous and early Permian, critical intervals for the diversification of vertebrate life on land. Our simulations suggest that apparent increases in early tetrapod diversity were not driven by local endemism following the 'Carboniferous rainforest collapse'. Instead, changes in face-value diversity can be explained by variation in sampling intensity through time. Our results further demonstrate the importance of accounting for sampling biases in analyses of the fossil record and highlight the vast potential of mechanistic models, including neutral models, for testing hypotheses in palaeobiology.

The early diversification of ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii): hypotheses, challenges and future prospects

Actinopterygii makes up half of living vertebrate diversity, and study of fossil members during their Palaeozoic rise to dominance has a long history of descriptive work. Although research interest into Palaeozoic actinopterygians has increased in recent years, broader patterns of diversity and diversity dynamics remain critically understudied. Past studies have investigated macroevolutionary trends in Palaeozoic actinopterygians in a piecemeal fashion, variably using existing compendia of vertebrates or literature-based searches. Here, we present a comprehensive occurrence-based dataset of actinopterygians spanning the whole of the Palaeozoic. We use this to produce the first through-Palaeozoic trends in genus and species counts for Actinopterygii. Diversity through time generally tracks metrics for sampling, while major taxonomic problems pervading the Palaeozoic actinopterygian record obscure diversity trends. Many described species are concentrated in several particularly problematic 'waste-basket' genera, hiding considerable morphological and taxonomic diversity. This taxonomic confusion also feeds into a limited understanding of phylogenetic relationships. A heavy sampling bias towards Europe and North America exists in both occurrence databases and available phylogenetic matrices, with other regions underrepresented despite yielding important data. Scrutiny of the extent to which spatial biases influence the actinopterygian record is lacking, as is research on other forms of bias. Low richness in some time periods may be linked to geological biases, while the effects of taphonomic biases on Palaeozoic actinopterygians have not yet been investigated. Efforts are already underway both to redescribe poorly defined taxa and to describe taxa from underrepresented regions, helping to address taxonomic issues and accuracy of occurrence data. New methods of sampling standardisation utilising up-to-date occurrence databases will be critical in teasing apart biological changes in diversity and those resulting from bias. Lastly, continued phylogenetic work will enable the use of phylogenetic comparative methods to elucidate the origins of actinopterygian biogeography and subsequent patterns of radiation throughout their rise to dominate aquatic faunas.

Biogeographic history of Palearctic caudates revealed by a critical appraisal of their fossil record quality and spatio-temporal distribution

The disjunct geographical range of many lineages of caudates points to a complex evolutionary and biogeographic history that cannot be disentangled by only considering the present-day distribution of salamander biodiversity. Here, we provide a critical reappraisal of the published fossil record of caudates from the Palearctic and quantitatively evaluate the quality of the group's fossil record. Stem-Urodela and Karauridae were widespread in the Palearctic in the Middle Jurassic, suggesting an earlier, unsampled diversification for this group. Cryptobranchidae reached Europe no later than the Oligocene, but this clade was subsequently extirpated from this continent, as well as from western and central Asia. The relatively recent appearance of hynobiids in the fossil record (Early Miocene) is most likely an artefact of a taphonomic bias against the preservation of high-mountain, stream-type environments which early members likely inhabited. Salamandroids first appear in Europe, expanding into Asia by the Miocene. The apparently enigmatic and disjunct distribution of extant caudate lineages is therefore explained by a wider past geographical range, as testified by the fossil record, which was fragmented during the late Cenozoic by a combination of tectonic (i.e. the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau) and climatic drivers, resulting in regional extirpations.

Sampling biases obscure the early diversification of the largest living vertebrate group

Extant ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii) dominate marine and freshwater environments, yet spatio-temporal diversity dynamics following their origin in the Palaeozoic are poorly understood. Previous studies investigate face-value patterns of richness, with only qualitative assessment of biases acting on the Palaeozoic actinopterygian fossil record. Here, we investigate palaeogeographic trends, reconstruct local richness and apply richness estimation techniques to a recently assembled occurrence database for Palaeozoic ray-finned fishes. We identify substantial fossil record biases, such as geographical bias in sampling centred around Europe and North America. Similarly, estimates of diversity are skewed by extreme unevenness in the occurrence distributions, reflecting historical biases in sampling and taxonomic practices, to the extent that evenness has an overriding effect on diversity estimates. Other than a genuine rise in diversity in the Tournaisian following the end-Devonian mass extinction, diversity estimates for Palaeozoic actinopterygians appear to lack biological signal, are heavily biased and are highly dependent on sampling. Increased sampling of poorly represented regions and expanding sampling beyond the literature to include museum collection data will be critical in obtaining accurate estimates of Palaeozoic actinopterygian diversity. In conjunction, applying diversity estimation techniques to well-sampled regional subsets of the 'global' dataset may identify accurate local diversity trends.

Short-term paleogeographic reorganizations and climate events shaped diversification of North American freshwater gastropods over deep time

What controls species diversity and diversification is one of the major questions in evolutionary biology and paleontology. Previous studies have addressed this issue based on various plant and animal groups, geographic regions, and time intervals. However, as most previous research focused on terrestrial or marine ecosystems, our understanding of the controls on diversification of biota (and particularly invertebrates) in freshwater environments in deep time is still limited. Here, we infer diversification rates of North American freshwater gastropods from the Late Triassic to the Pleistocene and explore potential links between shifts in speciation and extinction and major changes in paleogeography, climate, and biotic interactions. We found that variation in the speciation rate is best explained by changes in continental fragmentation, with rate shifts coinciding with major paleogeographic reorganizations in the Mesozoic, in particular the retreat of the Sundance Sea and subsequent development of the Bighorn wetland and the advance of the Western Interior Seaway. Climatic events in the Cenozoic (Middle Eocene Climate Optimum, Miocene Climate Optimum) variably coincide with shifts in speciation and extinction as well, but no significant long-term association could be detected. Similarly, no influence of diversity dependence was found across the entire time frame of ~ 214 Myr. Our results indicate that short-term climatic events and paleogeographic changes are relevant to the diversification of continental freshwater biota, while long-term trends have limited effect.

Functional and ecomorphological evolution of orbit shape in mesozoic archosaurs is driven by body size and diet

The orbit is one of several skull openings in the archosauromorph skull. Intuitively, it could be assumed that orbit shape would closely approximate the shape and size of the eyeball resulting in a predominantly circular morphology. However, a quantification of orbit shape across Archosauromorpha using a geometric morphometric approach demonstrates a large morphological diversity despite the fact that the majority of species retained a circular orbit. This morphological diversity is nearly exclusively driven by large (skull length > 1000 mm) and carnivorous species in all studied archosauromorph groups, but particularly prominently in theropod dinosaurs. While circular orbit shapes are retained in most herbivores and smaller species, as well as in juveniles and early ontogenetic stages, large carnivores adopted elliptical and keyhole-shaped orbits. Biomechanical modelling using finite element analysis reveals that these morphologies are beneficial in mitigating and dissipating feeding-induced stresses without additional reinforcement of the bony structure of the skull.

Life rather than climate influences diversity at scales greater than 40 million years

The diversity of life on Earth is controlled by hierarchical processes that interact over wide ranges of timescales¹. Here, we consider the megaclimate regime² at scales ≥1 million years (Myr). We focus on determining the domains of 'wandering' stochastic Earth system processes ('Court Jester'³) and stabilizing biotic interactions that induce diversity dependence of fluctuations in macroevolutionary rates ('Red Queen'⁴). Using state-of-the-art multiscale Haar and cross-Haar fluctuation analyses, we analysed the global genus-level Phanerozoic marine animal Paleobiology Database record of extinction rates (E), origination rates (O) and diversity (D) as well as sea water palaeotemperatures (T). Over the entire observed range from several million years to several hundred million years, we found that the fluctuations of T, E and O showed time-scaling behaviour. The megaclimate was characterized by positive scaling exponents-it is therefore apparently unstable. E and O are also scaling but with negative exponents-stable behaviour that is biotically mediated. For D, there were two regimes with a crossover at critical timescale [Formula: see text] ≈ 40 Myr. For shorter timescales, D exhibited nearly the same positive scaling as the megaclimate palaeotemperatures, whereas for longer timescales it tracks the scaling of macroevolutionary rates. At scales of at least [Formula: see text] there is onset of diversity dependence of E and O, probably enabled by mixing and synchronization (globalization) of the biota by geodispersal ('Geo-Red Queen').

Global diversity dynamics in the fossil record are regionally heterogeneous

Global diversity patterns in the fossil record comprise a mosaic of regional trends, underpinned by spatially non-random drivers and distorted by variation in sampling intensity through time and across space. Sampling-corrected diversity estimates from spatially-standardised fossil datasets retain their regional biogeographic nuances and avoid these biases, yet diversity-through-time arises from the interplay of origination and extinction, the processes that shape macroevolutionary history. Here we present a subsampling algorithm to eliminate spatial sampling bias, coupled with advanced probabilistic methods for estimating origination and extinction rates and a Bayesian method for estimating sampling-corrected diversity. We then re-examine the Late Permian to Early Jurassic marine fossil record, an interval spanning several global biotic upheavals that shaped the origins of the modern marine biosphere. We find that origination and extinction rates are regionally heterogenous even during events that manifested globally, highlighting the need for spatially explicit views of macroevolutionary processes through geological time.

Global diversity trends in the fossil record vary regionally through time and space, affecting our ability to interpret macroevolutionary history. Here, the authors propose a method to eliminate spatial sampling bias, estimate origination and extinction rates, and generate diversity estimates, applying this method to the Late Permian to Early Jurassic marine fossil record.

Colonial history and global economics distort our understanding of deep-time biodiversity

Sampling biases in the fossil record distort estimates of past biodiversity. However, these biases not only reflect the geological and spatial aspects of the fossil record, but also the historical and current collation of fossil data. We demonstrate how the legacy of colonialism and socioeconomic factors, such as wealth, education and political stability, impact the global distribution of fossil data over the past 30 years. We find that a global power imbalance persists in palaeontology, with researchers in high- or upper-middle-income countries holding a monopoly over palaeontological knowledge production by contributing to 97% of fossil data. As a result, some countries or regions tend to be better sampled than others, ultimately leading to heterogeneous spatial sampling across the globe. This illustrates how efforts to mitigate sampling biases to obtain a truly representative view of past biodiversity are not disconnected from the aim of diversifying and decolonizing our discipline.

Biotic and Abiotic Controls on the Phanerozoic History of Marine Animal Biodiversity

During the past 541 million years, marine animals underwent three intervals of diversification (early Cambrian, Ordovician, Cretaceous–Cenozoic) separated by nondirectional fluctuation, suggesting diversity-dependent dynamics with the equilibrium diversity shifting through time. Changes in factors such as shallow-marine habitat area and climate appear to have modulated the nondirectional fluctuations. Directional increases in diversity are best explained by evolutionary innovations in marine animals and primary producers coupled with stepwise increases in the availability of food and oxygen. Increasing intensity of biotic interactions such as predation and disturbance may have led to positive feedbacks on diversification as ecosystems became more complex. Important areas for further research include improving the geographic coverage and temporal resolution of paleontological data sets, as well as deepening our understanding of Earth system evolution and the physiological and ecological traits that modulated organismal responses to environmental change.

Multiple evolutionary origins and losses of tooth complexity in squamates

Teeth act as tools for acquiring and processing food, thus holding a prominent role in vertebrate evolution. In mammals, dental-dietary adaptations rely on tooth complexity variations controlled by cusp number and pattern. Complexity increase through cusp addition has dominated the diversification of mammals. However, studies of Mammalia alone cannot reveal patterns of tooth complexity conserved throughout vertebrate evolution. Here, we use morphometric and phylogenetic comparative methods across fossil and extant squamates to show they also repeatedly evolved increasingly complex teeth, but with more flexibility than mammals. Since the Late Jurassic, multiple-cusped teeth evolved over 20 times independently from a single-cusped common ancestor. Squamates frequently lost cusps and evolved varied multiple-cusped morphologies at heterogeneous rates. Tooth complexity evolved in correlation with changes in plant consumption, resulting in several major increases in speciation. Complex teeth played a critical role in vertebrate evolution outside Mammalia, with squamates exemplifying a more labile system of dental-dietary evolution.

Biodiversity across space and time in the fossil record

The fossil record is the primary source of information on how biodiversity has varied in deep time, providing unique insight on the long-term dynamics of diversification and their drivers. However, interpretations of fossil record diversity patterns have been much debated, with a traditional focus on global diversity through time. Problems arise because the fossil record is spatially and temporally patchy, so 'global' diversity estimates actually represent the summed diversity across a set of geographically and environmentally distinct regions that vary substantially in number and identity through time. Furthermore, a focus on global diversity lumps the signal of ecological drivers at local and regional scales with the signal of global-scale processes, including variation in the distribution of environments and in provincialism (the extent of subdivision into distinct biogeographic regions). These signals cannot be untangled by studying global diversity measures alone. These conceptual and empirical concerns necessitate a shift away from the study of 'biodiversity through time' and towards the study of 'biodiversity across time and space'. Spatially explicit investigations, including analyses of local- and regional-scale datasets, are central to achieving this and allow analysis of geographic scale, location and the environmental parameters directly experienced by organisms. So far, research in this area has revealed the stability of species richness variation among environments through time, and the potential climatic and Earth-system drivers of changing biodiversity. Ultimately, this research program promises to address key questions regarding the assembly of biodiversity, and the contributions of local-, regional- and global-scale processes to the diversification of life on Earth.

When fossil clades 'compete': local dominance, global diversification dynamics and causation

Examining the supposition that local-scale competition drives macroevolutionary patterns has become a familiar goal in fossil biodiversity studies. However, it is an elusive goal, hampered by inadequate confirmation of ecological equivalence and interactive processes between clades, patchy sampling, few comparative analyses of local species assemblages over long geological intervals, and a dearth of appropriate statistical tools. We address these concerns by reevaluating one of the classic examples of clade displacement in the fossil record, in which cheilostome bryozoans surpass the once dominant cyclostomes. Here, we analyse a newly expanded and vetted compilation of 40 190 fossil species occurrences to estimate cheilostome and cyclostome patterns of species proportions within assemblages, global genus richness and genus origination and extinction rates while accounting for sampling. Comparison of time-series models using linear stochastic differential equations suggests that inter-clade genus origination and extinction rates are causally linked to each other in a complex feedback relationship rather than by simple correlations or unidirectional relationships, and that these rates are not causally linked to changing within-assemblage proportions of cheilostome versus cyclostome species.

A positive relationship between functional redundancy and temperature in Cenozoic marine ecosystems

The long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and biogeographic patterns are uncertain. There are known relationships between geographic area and both the number of species and the number of ecological functional groups-termed the species-area relationship and the functional diversity-area relationship, respectively. We show that there is a positive relationship between the number of species in an area, the number of ecological functional groups, and oceanic temperature in the shallow-marine fossil record of New Zealand over a time span of ~40 million years. One implication of this relationship is that functional redundancy increases with temperature. This reveals a long-lived and persistent association between the spatial structuring of biodiversity, the temperature-dependence of functional redundancy, and shallow-marine biodiversity in mid-latitudes.

The First Age of Reptiles? Comparing Reptile and Synapsid Diversity, and the Influence of Lagerstätten, During the Carboniferous and Early Permian

Terrestrial ecosystems during the Pennsylvanian (late Carboniferous) and Cisuralian (early Permian) are usually described in the literature as being dominated by synapsids, the mammal-line amniotes. The pelycosaurs (a paraphyletic grouping of synapsid families) have been considered more speciose, abundant, and ecologically diverse than contemporary reptile-line amniotes. However, this dominance has never been subjected to quantitative testing accounting for sampling bias. Moreover, in recent years the amniote phylogeny has undergone numerous revisions, with suggestions that varanopids and recumbirostran microsaurs fall within reptiles, and that diadectomorphs may be pelycosaurian-grade synapsids. An examination of local species richness (alpha diversity) of synapsids and reptiles during the Pennsylvanian and Cisuralian at different spatial scales shows that these taxonomic revisions have substantial impacts on relative diversity patterns of synapsids and reptiles. Synapsids are only found to be consistently more diverse through the early Permian when using the “traditional” taxonomy. The recent taxonomic updates produce diversity estimates where reptile diversity is consistent with, or in some cases higher than that of synapsids. Moreover, biases in preservation may affect patterns. Where preservation favors smaller vertebrates, e.g., Richards Spur, South Grandfield, reptiles overwhelmingly dominate. If smaller vertebrates are expected to make up the bulk of amniote diversity, as they do in the present day, such lagerstätten may be more representative of true diversity patterns. Therefore, the dominance of pelycosaurs during this interval should be reconsidered, and this interval may be considered the First Age of Reptiles.

Productivity, niche availability, species richness, and extinction risk: Untangling relationships using individual-based simulations

It has often been suggested that the productivity of an ecosystem affects the number of species that it can support. Despite decades of study, the nature, extent, and underlying mechanisms of this relationship are unclear. One suggested mechanism is the "more individuals" hypothesis (MIH). This proposes that productivity controls the number of individuals in the ecosystem, and that more individuals can be divided into a greater number of species before their population size is sufficiently small for each to be at substantial risk of extinction. Here, we test this hypothesis using REvoSim: an individual-based eco-evolutionary system that simulates the evolution and speciation of populations over geological time, allowing phenomena occurring over timescales that cannot be easily observed in the real world to be evaluated. The individual-based nature of this system allows us to remove assumptions about the nature of speciation and extinction that previous models have had to make. Many of the predictions of the MIH are supported in our simulations: Rare species are more likely to undergo extinction than common species, and species richness scales with productivity. However, we also find support for relationships that contradict the predictions of the strict MIH: species population size scales with productivity, and species extinction risk is better predicted by relative than absolute species population size, apparently due to increased competition when total community abundance is higher. Furthermore, we show that the scaling of species richness with productivity depends upon the ability of species to partition niche space. Consequently, we suggest that the MIH is applicable only to ecosystems in which niche partitioning has not been halted by species saturation. Some hypotheses regarding patterns of biodiversity implicitly or explicitly overlook niche theory in favor of neutral explanations, as has historically been the case with the MIH. Our simulations demonstrate that niche theory exerts a control on the applicability of the MIH and thus needs to be accounted for in macroecology.

Revisiting the sedimentary record of the rise of diatoms

Diatoms are a major primary producer in the modern oceans and play a critical role in the marine silica cycle. Their rise to dominance is recognized as one of the largest shifts in Cenozoic marine ecosystems, but the timing of this transition is debated. Here, we use a diagenetic model to examine the effect of sedimentation rate and temperature on the burial efficiency of biogenic silica over the past 66 million years (i.e., the Cenozoic). We find that the changing preservation potential of siliceous microfossils during that time would have overprinted the primary signal of diatom and radiolarian abundance. We generate a taphonomic null hypothesis of the diatom fossil record by assuming a constant flux of diatoms to the sea floor and having diagenetic conditions driven by observed shifts in temperature and sedimentation rate. This null hypothesis produces a late Cenozoic (∼5 Ma to 20 Ma) increase in the relative abundance of fossilized diatoms that is comparable to current empirical records. This suggests that the observed increase in diatom abundance in the sedimentary record may be driven by changing preservation potential. A late Cenozoic rise in diatoms has been causally tied to the rise of grasslands and baleen whales and to declining atmospheric CO₂ levels. Here we suggest that the similarity among these records primarily arises from a common driver-the cooling climate system-that drove enhanced diatom preservation as well as the rise of grasslands and whales, rather than a causal link among them.

Spatial sampling heterogeneity limits the detectability of deep time latitudinal biodiversity gradients

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), in which species richness decreases from tropical to polar regions, is a pervasive pattern of the modern biosphere. Although the distribution of fossil occurrences suggests this pattern has varied through deep time, the recognition of palaeobiogeographic patterns is hampered by geological and anthropogenic biases. In particular, spatial sampling heterogeneity has the capacity to impact upon the reconstruction of deep time LBGs. Here we use a simulation framework to test the detectability of three different types of LBG (flat, unimodal and bimodal) over the last 300 Myr. We show that heterogeneity in spatial sampling significantly impacts upon the detectability of genuine LBGs, with known biodiversity patterns regularly obscured after applying the spatial sampling window of fossil collections. Sampling-standardization aids the reconstruction of relative biodiversity gradients, but cannot account for artefactual absences introduced by geological and anthropogenic biases. Therefore, we argue that some previous studies might have failed to recover the ‘true’ LBG type owing to incomplete and heterogeneous sampling, particularly between 200 and 20 Ma. Furthermore, these issues also have the potential to bias global estimates of past biodiversity, as well as inhibit the recognition of extinction and radiation events.

Dinosaur diversification rates were not in decline prior to the K-Pg boundary

Determining the tempo and mode of non-avian dinosaur extinction is one of the most contentious issues in palaeobiology. Extensive disagreements remain over whether their extinction was catastrophic and geologically instantaneous or the culmination of long-term evolutionary trends. These conflicts have arisen due to numerous hierarchical sampling biases in the fossil record and differences in analytical methodology, with some studies identifying long-term declines in dinosaur richness prior to the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary and others proposing continued diversification. Here, we use Bayesian phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models to assess the fit of 12 dinosaur phylogenies to three speciation models (null, slowdown to asymptote, downturn). We do not find strong support for the downturn model in our analyses, which suggests that dinosaur speciation rates were not in terminal decline prior to the K-Pg boundary and that the clade was still capable of generating new taxa. Nevertheless, we advocate caution in interpreting the results of such models, as they may not accurately reflect the complexities of the underlying data. Indeed, current phylogenetic methods may not provide the best test for hypotheses of dinosaur extinction; the collection of more dinosaur occurrence data will be essential to test these ideas further.

The apparent exponential radiation of Phanerozoic land vertebrates is an artefact of spatial sampling biases

There is no consensus about how terrestrial biodiversity was assembled through deep time, and in particular whether it has risen exponentially over the Phanerozoic. Using a database of 60 859 fossil occurrences, we show that the spatial extent of the worldwide terrestrial tetrapod fossil record itself expands exponentially through the Phanerozoic. Changes in spatial sampling explain up to 67% of the change in known fossil species counts, and these changes are decoupled from variation in habitable land area that existed through time. Spatial sampling therefore represents a real and profound sampling bias that cannot be explained as redundancy. To address this bias, we estimate terrestrial tetrapod diversity for palaeogeographical regions of approximately equal size. We find that regional-scale diversity was constrained over timespans of tens to hundreds of millions of years, and similar patterns are recovered for major subgroups, such as dinosaurs, mammals and squamates. Although the Cretaceous/Palaeogene mass extinction catalysed an abrupt two- to three-fold increase in regional diversity 66 million years ago, no further increases occurred, and recent levels of regional diversity do not exceed those of the Palaeogene. These results parallel those recovered in analyses of local community-level richness. Taken together, our findings strongly contradict past studies that suggested unbounded diversity increases at local and regional scales over the last 100 million years.