The emergence and shift in seasonality of Lyme borreliosis in Northern Europe

One health in the Arctic - connections and actions

There is growing awareness and recognition of the importance of the One Health paradigm to address existing environmental threats and recognise emerging ones at an early stage among Arctic residents, public health agencies, and wildlife resource managers. The One Health approach, emphasising the interconnectedness of human, animal, and ecosystem health, plays a pivotal role in addressing these multifaceted issues. Warming climate and permafrost thaw may influence both contaminant exposure and the spread of zoonotic infectious diseases and have impacts on water and food security. Migration from rural regions to larger communities and urban centres along with increased tourism may be accompanied by changes in exposure to contaminants and zoonotic diseases. Universities have developed educational programmes and research projects on One Health in the Arctic, and under the Arctic Council there is running a project of One Arctic, One Health. These arctivities have produced interdisciplinary information and practical solutions for local communities, decision-makers, and in scientific forums. There is a need for epidemiological zoonotic/human disease models, as well as new approaches to integrate existing and future surveillance data to climatic and environmental data. This requires not only regional and international collaboration but also multi-agency and transdisciplinary research.

Emerging patterns in rodent-borne zoonotic diseases

Rodents are ubiquitous and typically unwelcome dwellers in human habitats worldwide, infesting homes, farm fields, and agricultural stores and potentially shedding disease-causing microbes into the most human-occupied of spaces. Of the vertebrate animal taxa that share pathogens with us, rodents are the most abundant and diverse, with hundreds of species of confirmed zoonotic hosts, some of which have nearly global distributions. However, only 12% of rodent species are known to be sources of pathogens that also infect people, and those rodents that do are now recognized as tending to share a suite of predictable traits. Here, we characterize those traits and explore them in the context of three emerging or reemerging rodent-borne zoonotic diseases of people: Lassa fever, Lyme disease, and plague.

GIS-ODE: linking dynamic population models with GIS to predict pathogen vector abundance across a country under climate change scenarios

Mechanistic mathematical models such as ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have a long history for their use in describing population dynamics and determining estimates of key parameters that summarize the potential growth or decline of a population over time. More recently, geographic information systems (GIS) have become important tools to provide a visual representation of statistically determined parameters and environmental features over space. Here, we combine these tools to form a 'GIS-ODE' approach to generate spatiotemporal maps predicting how projected changes in thermal climate may affect population densities and, uniquely, population dynamics of Ixodes ricinus, an important tick vector of several human pathogens. Assuming habitat and host densities are not greatly affected by climate warming, the GIS-ODE model predicted that, even under the lowest projected temperature increase, I. ricinus nymph densities could increase by 26-99% in Scotland, depending on the habitat and climate of the location. Our GIS-ODE model provides the vector-borne disease research community with a framework option to produce predictive, spatially explicit risk maps based on a mechanistic understanding of vector and vector-borne disease transmission dynamics.

Aseptic Meningitis Linked to Borrelia afzelii Seroconversion in Northeastern Greece: An Emerging Infectious Disease Contested in the Region

Borreliosis (Lyme disease) is a zoonosis, mediated to humans and small mammals through specific vectors (ticks), with increasing global incidence. It is associated with a variety of clinical manifestations and can, if not promptly recognized and left untreated, lead to significant disability. In Europe, the main Borrelia species causing disease in humans are Borrelia burgdorferi s.s., Borrelia afzelii, Borrelia garinii, and Borrelia spielmanii. The Ixodes ricinus tick is their principal vector. Although Lyme disease is considered endemic in the Balkan region and Turkey, and all three main Lyme pathogens have been detected in ticks collected in these countries, autochthonous Lyme disease remains controversial in Greece. We report a case of aseptic meningitis associated with antibody seroconversion against Borrelia afzelii in a young female patient from the prefecture of Thasos without any relevant travel history. The patient presented with fever and severe headache, and the cerebrospinal fluid examination showed lymphocytic pleocytosis. Serum analysis was positive for specific IgG antibodies against Borrelia afzelii. In the absence of typical erythema migrans, serological evidence of infection is required for diagnosis. Although atypical in terms of clinical presentation, the seasonality and geographical location of potential disease transmission in the reported patient should raise awareness among clinicians for a still controversial and potentially underreported emerging infectious disease in Greece.

Signatures of autumn deluges revealed during spring drought in a semi-arid grassland

Increases in extremely large precipitation events (deluges) and shifts in seasonal patterns of water availability with climate change will both have important consequences for ecosystem function, particularly in water-limited regions. While previous work in the semi-arid shortgrass steppe of northeastern Colorado has demonstrated this ecosystem's strong sensitivity to growing season deluges, our understanding of ecosystem responses to deluges during the dormant season is limited. Here, we imposed experimental 100 mm deluges (~ 30% of mean annual precipitation) in either September or October in a native C4-dominated shortgrass steppe ecosystem to evaluate the impact of this post-growing season shift in water availability during the autumn and the following growing season. Soil moisture for both deluge treatments remained elevated compared with ambient levels through April as spring precipitation was atypically low. Despite overall low levels of productivity with spring drought, these deluges from the previous autumn increased aboveground net primary production (ANPP), primarily due to increases with C4 grasses. C3 ANPP was also enhanced, largely due to an increase in the annual C3 grass, Vulpia octoflora, in the October deluge treatment. While spring precipitation has historically been the primary determinant of ecosystem function in this ecosystem, this combination of two climate extremes-an extremely wet autumn followed by a naturally-occurring spring drought-revealed the potential for meaningful carryover effects from autumn precipitation. With climate change increasing the likelihood of extremes during all seasons, experiments which create novel climatic conditions can provide new insight into the dynamics of ecosystem functioning in the future.

Outdoor recreation, tick borne encephalitis incidence and seasonality in Finland, Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020/2021)

During the pandemic outdoor activities were encouraged to mitigate transmission risk while providing safe spaces for social interactions. Human behaviour, which may favour or disfavour, contact rates between questing ticks and humans, is a key factor impacting tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence. We analyzed annual and weekly TBE cases in Finland, Norway and Sweden from 2010 to 2021 to assess trend, seasonality, and discuss changes in human tick exposure imposed by COVID-19. We compared the pre-pandemic incidence (2010-2019) with the pandemic incidence (2020-2021) by fitting a generalized linear model (GLM) to incidence data. Pre-pandemic incidence was 1.0, 0.29 and 2.8 for Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively, compared to incidence of 2.2, 1.0 and 3.9 during the pandemic years. However, there was an increasing trend for all countries across the whole study period. Therefore, we predicted the number of cases in 2020/2021 based on a model fitted to the annual cases in 2010-2019. The incidences during the pandemic were 1.3 times higher for Finland, 1.7 times higher for Norway and no difference for Sweden. When social restrictions were enforced to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 there were profound changes in outdoor recreational behavior. Future consideration of public health interventions that promote outdoor activities may increase exposure to vector-borne diseases.

Demographic patterns in Lyme borreliosis seasonality over 25 years

Lyme borreliosis, the most common vector-borne disease in Europe and North America, is attracting growing concern due to its expanding geographic range. The growth in incidence and geographic spread is largely attributed to climate and land-use changes that support the tick vector and thereby increase disease risk. Despite a wide range of symptoms displayed by Lyme borreliosis patients, the demographic patterns in clinical manifestations and seasonal case timing have not been thoroughly investigated and may result from differences in exposure, immunity and pathogenesis. We analysed 25 years of surveillance data from Norway, supplemented by population demography data, using a Bayesian modelling framework. The analyses aimed to detect differences in case seasonality and clinical manifestations of Lyme borreliosis across age and sex differentiated patient groups. The results showed a bimodal pattern of incidence over age, where children (0-9 years) had the highest incidence, young adults (20-29 years) had low incidence and older adults had a second incidence peak in the ages 70-79 years. Youth (0-19 years) presented with a higher proportion of neuroborreliosis cases and a lower proportion of arthritic manifestations compared to adults (20+ years). Adult males had a higher overall incidence than adult females and a higher proportion of arthritis cases. The seasonal timing of Lyme borreliosis consistently occurred around 4.4 weeks earlier in youth compared to adults, regardless of clinical manifestation. All demographic groups exhibited a shift towards an earlier seasonal timing over the 25-year study period, which appeared unrelated to changes in population demographics. However, the disproportionate incidence of Lyme borreliosis in seniors requires increased public awareness and knowledge about this high-risk group as the population continues to age concurrently with disease emergence. Our findings highlight the importance of considering patient demographics when analysing the emergence and seasonal patterns of vector-borne diseases using long-term surveillance data.