HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO): fine-grained, global-scale measurements of climatically important atmospheric gases and aerosols

Improved atmospheric constraints on Southern Ocean CO2 exchange

We present improved estimates of air-sea CO2 exchange over three latitude bands of the Southern Ocean using atmospheric CO2 measurements from global airborne campaigns and an atmospheric 4-box inverse model based on a mass-indexed isentropic coordinate (Mθe). These flux estimates show two features not clearly resolved in previous estimates based on inverting surface CO2 measurements: a weak winter-time outgassing in the polar region and a sharp phase transition of the seasonal flux cycles between polar/subpolar and subtropical regions. The estimates suggest much stronger summer-time uptake in the polar/subpolar regions than estimates derived through neural-network interpolation of pCO2 data obtained with profiling floats but somewhat weaker uptake than a recent study by Long et al. [Science 374, 1275-1280 (2021)], who used the same airborne data and multiple atmospheric transport models (ATMs) to constrain surface fluxes. Our study also uses moist static energy (MSE) budgets from reanalyses to show that most ATMs tend to have excessive diabatic mixing (transport across moist isentrope, θe, or Mθe surfaces) at high southern latitudes in the austral summer, which leads to biases in estimates of air-sea CO2 exchange. Furthermore, we show that the MSE-based constraint is consistent with an independent constraint on atmospheric mixing based on combining airborne and surface CO2 observations.

A MEMS modulator-based dual-channel mid-infrared laser heterodyne radiometer for simultaneous remote sensing of atmospheric CH4, H2O and N2O

The performance of a micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) modulator-based dual-channel mid-infrared laser heterodyne radiometer (MIR-LHR) was demonstrated in ground-based solar occultation mode for the first time. A MEMS mirror was employed as an alternative modulator to the traditional mechanical chopper, which makes the system more stable and compact. Two inter-band cascade lasers (ICL) centered at 3.53 µm and 3.93 µm, were employed as local oscillators (LO) to probe absorption lines of methane (CH4), water vapor (H₂O) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). The system stability greater than 1000 s was evaluated by Allan variance. The experimental MIR-LHR spectra (acquired at Hefei, China, on February 24th 2022) of two channels were compared and were in good agreement with simulation spectra from atmospheric transmission modeling. The mixing ratio of CH₄, H₂O and N₂O were determined to be ∼1.906 ppm, 3069 ppm and ∼338 ppb, respectively. The reported MEMS modulator-based dual-channel MIR-LHR in this manuscript has great potential to be a portable and high spectral resolution instrument for remote sensing of multi-component gases in the atmospheric column.

Hydrocarbon Tracers Suggest Methane Emissions from Fossil Sources Occur Predominately Before Gas Processing and That Petroleum Plays Are a Significant Source

We use global airborne observations of propane (C₃H₈) and ethane (C₂H₆) from the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) and HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO), as well as U.S.-based aircraft and tower observations by NOAA and from the NCAR FRAPPE campaign as tracers for emissions from oil and gas operations. To simulate global mole fraction fields for these gases, we update the default emissions' configuration of C₃H₈ used by the global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem v13.0.0, using a scaled C₂H₆ spatial proxy. With the updated emissions, simulations of both C₃H₈ and C₂H₆ using GEOS-Chem are in reasonable agreement with ATom and HIPPO observations, though the updated emission fields underestimate C₃H₈ accumulation in the arctic wintertime, pointing to additional sources of this gas in the high latitudes (e.g., Europe). Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we estimate global emissions of C₂H₆ and C₃H₈ from fossil fuel production in 2016-2018 to be 13.3 ± 0.7 (95% CI) and 14.7 ± 0.8 (95% CI) Tg/year, respectively. We calculate bottom-up hydrocarbon emission ratios using basin composition measurements weighted by gas production and find their magnitude is higher than expected and is similar to ratios informed by our revised alkane emissions. This suggests that emissions are dominated by pre-processing activities in oil-producing basins.

Nitrous Oxide Profile Retrievals from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and Validation

This paper presents an algorithm for the retrieval of nitrous oxide profiles from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) on the Earth Observing System (EOS)/Aqua using a nonlinear optimal estimation method. First, an improved Optimal Sensitivity Profile (OSP) algorithm for channel selection is proposed based on the weighting functions and the transmissions of the target gas and interfering gases, with 13 channels selected for inversion in this algorithm. Next, the data of the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) are used to verify the retrieval results, including the atmospheric nitrous oxide profile and the column concentration. The results show that using AIRS satellite data, the atmospheric nitrous oxide profile between 300–900 hPa can be well retrieved with an accuracy of ~0.1%, which agrees with the corresponding Jacobian peak interval of selected channels. Analysis of the AIRS retrievals demonstrates that the AIRS measurements provide useful information to capture the spatial and temporal variations in nitrous oxide between 300–900 hPa.

Evaluation and Global-Scale Observation of Nitrous Oxide from IASI on Metop-A

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas difficult to estimate by satellite because of its weak spectral signature in the infra-red band and its low variability in the troposphere. Nevertheless, this study presents the evaluation of new tropospheric N2O observations from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) on Metop-A using the Toulouse N2O Retrieval Version 2.0 tool. This tool is based on the Radiative Transfer for Tiros Operational Vertical sounder (RTTOV) model version 12.3 coupled to the Levenberg-Marquardt optimal estimation method enabling the simultaneous retrieval of methane, water vapour, temperature profiles together with surface temperature and emissivity within the 1240–1350 cm−1 window. In this study, we focused on the upper troposphere (300 hPa) where the sensitivity of IASI is significant. The IASI N2O data has been evaluated using aircraft N2O observations from the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns in 2009, 2010, and 2011 and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN) in 2011. In addition, we evaluated the IASI N2O using ground-based N2O measurements from 9 stations belonging to the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We found a total random error of ∼2 ppbv (0.6%) for one single retrieval at 300 hPa. Under favorable conditions, this error is also found in the vertical level pressure range 300–500 hPa. It decreases rapidly to ∼0.4 ppbv (0.1%) when we average on a 1° × 1° box. In addition, independent observations allows the estimation of bias with the IASI TN2OR v2.0 N2O. The bias between IASI and aircraft N2O data at 300 hPa is ∼1.0 ppbv (∼0.3%). We found an estimated random error of ∼2.3 ppbv (∼0.75%). This study also shows relatively high correlations between IASI data and aircraft in situ profiles but more varying correlations over the year 2011 depending on the location between IASI and NDACC remote sensing data. Finally, we present daily, monthly, and seasonal IASI N2O horizontal distributions in the upper troposphere as well as cross sections for different seasons that exhibit maxima in the Tropical band especially over Africa and South America.

Assimilation of GOSAT Methane in the Hemispheric CMAQ; Part II: Results Using Optimal Error Statistics

We applied the parametric variance Kalman filter (PvKF) data assimilation designed in Part I of this two-part paper to GOSAT methane observations with the hemispheric version of CMAQ to obtain the methane field (i.e., optimized analysis) with its error variance. Although the Kalman filter computes error covariances, the optimality depends on how these covariances reflect the true error statistics. To achieve more accurate representation, we optimize the global variance parameters, including correlation length scales and observation errors, based on a cross-validation cost function. The model and the initial error are then estimated according to the normalized variance matching diagnostic, also to maintain a stable analysis error variance over time. The assimilation results in April 2010 are validated against independent surface and aircraft observations. The statistics of the comparison of the model and analysis show a meaningful improvement against all four types of available observations. Having the advantage of continuous assimilation, we showed that the analysis also aims at pursuing the temporal variation of independent measurements, as opposed to the model. Finally, the performance of the PvKF assimilation in capturing the spatial structure of bias and uncertainty reduction across the Northern Hemisphere is examined, indicating the capability of analysis in addressing those biases originated, whether from inaccurate emissions or modelling error.

Strong Southern Ocean carbon uptake evident in airborne observations

[Figure: see text].

Light-absorption enhancement of black carbon in the Asian outflow inferred from airborne SP2 and in-situ measurements during KORUS-AQ

We investigated the changes in the size distribution, coating thickness, and mass absorption cross-section (MAC) of black carbon (BC) with aging and estimated the light absorption enhancement (E_abs) in the Asian outflow from airborne in-situ measurements during 2016 KORUS-AQ campaign. The BC number concentration decreased, but mass mean diameter increased with increasing altitude in the West Coast (WC) and Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), reflecting the contrast between freshly emitted BC-containing particles at the surface and more aged aerosol associated with aggregation during vertical mixing and transport. Contradistinctively, BC number and mass size distributions were relatively invariant with altitude over the Yellow Sea (YS) because sufficiently aged BC from eastern China were horizontally transported to all altitudes over the YS, and there are no significant sources at the surface. The averaged inferred MAC of refractory BC in three regions reflecting differences in their size distributions increased to 9.8 ± 1.0 m² g^-1 (YS), 9.3 ± 0.9 m² g^-1 (WC), and 8.2 ± 0.9 m² g^-1 (SMA) as BC coating thickness increased from 20 nm to 120 nm. The absorption coefficient of BC calculated from the coating thickness and MAC were highly correlated with the filter-based absorption measurements with the slope of 1.16 and R² of 0.96 at 550 nm, revealing that the thickly coated BC had a large MAC and absorption coefficient. The E_abs due to the inferred coatings was estimated as 1.0-1.6, which was about 30% lower than those from climate models and laboratory experiments, suggesting that the increase in the BC absorption by the coatings in the Asian outflow is not as large as calculated in the previous studies. Organics contributed to the largest E_abs accounting for 69% (YS), 61% (WC), and 64% (SMA). This implies that organics are largely responsible for the lensing effect of BC rather than sulfates in the Asian outflow.

Unpiloted Aircraft System Instrument for the Rapid Collection of Whole Air Samples and Measurements for Environmental Monitoring and Air Quality Studies

A new airborne system, the Whole Air Sampling Pilotless Platform (WASPP), is described for the collection of whole air samples and in situ meteorological measurements onboard a commercial hexacopter. Rapid sample collection enables the collection ≤15 air samples per flight in positively pressurized miniature canisters, subsequently analyzed on a mated analytical system for up to 80 nonmethane volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The WASPP is well suited to investigate VOC gradients in urban environments impacted by traffic, industry, and oil and natural gas (O&NG) development, but has the sensitivity to characterize continental background conditions, as shown here using a subset of >40 species. We document empirical tests to minimize the influence of rotor wash and other sampling artifacts and report favorable results of laboratory-based calibrations of the WASPP's meteorological sensors and field-based comparisons of WASPP's VOC measurements and horizontal wind velocity measurements. Airborne WASPP measurements can complement and enhance ground-based VOC monitoring efforts by providing substantial meteorological and VOC measurement capability across vertical and horizontal spatial scales. These measurements reveal strong vertical gradients in VOC mixing ratios, depending on local meteorology and sources. WASPP has wide applicability for pollution source identification and quantification of hazardous air pollutants and precursors of criteria pollutants, including monitoring O&NG emissions or industry fenceline monitoring.

Retrieval of Metop-A/IASI N2O Profiles and Validation with NDACC FTIR Data

This paper reports atmospheric profiles of N2O retrieved from Metop/IASI with the Software for the Retrieval of IASI Data (SOFRID) for the 2008–2018 period and their validation with FTIR data from 12 stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Changes (NDACC). SOFRID retrievals performed in the 2160–2218 cm−1 spectral window provide 3 independent pieces of information about the vertical profile of N2O. The FTIR versus SOFRID comparisons display a better agreement in the mid-troposphere (MT, 700–350 hPa) than in the lower (LT, Surface–700 hPa) and upper (UT, 350–110 hPa) troposphere with correlation coefficients (R) in the 0.49–0.83 range and comparable variabilities (3–5 ppbv). The agreement for oceanic and coastal stations (R > 0.77) is better than for continental ones (R < 0.72). The SOFRID MT N2O mixing ratios are significantly biased high (up to 16.8 ppbv) relative to FTIR at continental stations while the biases remain below 4.2 ppbv and mostly unsignificant when oceanic data are considered. The average MT decadal trends derived from SOFRID at the 8 NDACC stations with continuous observations during the 2008–2018 period (1.05 ± 0.1 ppbv·yr−1) is in good agreement with the corresponding FTIR trends (1.08 ± 0.1 ppbv·yr−1) and the NOAA-ESRL trends from surface in-situ measurements (0.95 ± 0.02 ppbv·yr−1). In the Northern Hemisphere where they are clearly detected, the N2O MT seasonal variations from SOFRID and FTIR are phased (summer minima) and have similar amplitudes. SOFRID also detects the UT summer maxima indicating independent MT and UT information. The global MT N2O oceanic distributions from SOFRID display low geographical variability and are mainly characterized by enhanced tropical mixing ratios relative to mid and high latitudes.

Spatio-Temporal Validation of AIRS CO2 Observations Using GAW, HIPPO and TCCON

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a significant atmospheric greenhouse gas and its concentrations can be observed by in situ surface stations, aircraft flights and satellite sensors. This paper investigated the ability of the CO2 satellite observations to monitor, analyze and predict the horizontal and vertical distribution of atmospheric CO2 concentration at global scales. CO2 observations retrieved by an Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) were inter-compared with the Global Atmosphere Watch Program (GAW) and HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPOs), with reference to the measurements obtained using high-resolution ground-based Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTS) in the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) from near-surface level to the mid-to-high troposphere. After vertically integrating the AIRS-retrieved values with the column averaging kernels of TCCON measurements, the AIRS observations are spatio-temporally compared with HIPPO-integrated profiles in the mid-to-high troposphere. Five selected GAW stations are used for comparisons with TCCON sites near the surface of the Earth. The results of AIRS, TCCON (5–6 km), GAW and TCCON (1 km) CO2 measurements from 2007 to 2013 are compared, analyzed and discussed at their respective altitudes. The outcomes indicate that the difference of about 3.0 ppmv between AIRS and GAW or other highly accurate in situ surface measurements is mainly due to the different vertical altitudes, rather than the errors in the AIRS. The study reported here also explores the potential of AIRS satellite observations for analyzing the spatial distribution and seasonal variation of CO2 concentration at global scales.

Validation of Carbon Trace Gas Profile Retrievals from the NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System for the Cross-Track Infrared Sounder

This paper provides an overview of the validation of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational retrievals of atmospheric carbon trace gas profiles, specifically carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), from the NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS), a NOAA enterprise algorithm that retrieves atmospheric profile environmental data records (EDRs) under global non-precipitating (clear to partly cloudy) conditions. Vertical information about atmospheric trace gases is obtained from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), an infrared Fourier transform spectrometer that measures high resolution Earth radiance spectra from NOAA operational low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, including the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) and follow-on Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) series beginning with NOAA-20. The NUCAPS CO, CH4, and CO2 profile EDRs are rigorously validated in this paper using well-established independent truth datasets, namely total column data from ground-based Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) sites, and in situ vertical profile data obtained from aircraft and balloon platforms via the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission and NOAA AirCore sampler, respectively. Statistical analyses using these datasets demonstrate that the NUCAPS carbon gas profile EDRs generally meet JPSS Level 1 global performance requirements, with the absolute accuracy and precision of CO 5% and 15%, respectively, in layers where CrIS has vertical sensitivity; CH4 and CO2 product accuracies are both found to be within ±1%, with precisions of ≈1.5% and ⪅0.5%, respectively, throughout the tropospheric column.

Siberian and temperate ecosystems shape Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplification

The amplitude of the atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle has increased by 30 to 50% in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) since the 1960s, suggesting widespread ecological changes in the northern extratropics. However, substantial uncertainty remains in the continental and regional drivers of this prominent amplitude increase. Here we present a quantitative regional attribution of CO2 seasonal amplification over the past 4 decades, using a tagged atmospheric transport model prescribed with observationally constrained fluxes. We find that seasonal flux changes in Siberian and temperate ecosystems together shape the observed amplitude increases in the NH. At the surface of northern high latitudes, enhanced seasonal carbon exchange in Siberia is the dominant contributor (followed by temperate ecosystems). Arctic-boreal North America shows much smaller changes in flux seasonality and has only localized impacts. These continental contrasts, based on an atmospheric approach, corroborate heterogeneous vegetation greening and browning trends from field and remote-sensing observations, providing independent evidence for regionally divergent ecological responses and carbon dynamics to global change drivers. Over surface midlatitudes and throughout the midtroposphere, increased seasonal carbon exchange in temperate ecosystems is the dominant contributor to CO2 amplification, albeit with considerable contributions from Siberia. Representing the mechanisms that control the high-latitude asymmetry in flux amplification found in this study should be an important goal for mechanistic land surface models moving forward.

Constraining remote oxidation capacity with ATom observations

The global oxidation capacity, defined as the tropospheric mean concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH), controls the lifetime of reactive trace gases in the atmosphere such as methane and carbon monoxide (CO). Models tend to underestimate the methane lifetime and CO concentrations throughout the troposphere, which is consistent with excessive OH. Approximately half of the oxidation of methane and non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is thought to occur over the oceans where oxidant chemistry has received little validation due to a lack of observational constraints. We use observations from the first two deployments of the NASA ATom aircraft campaign during July-August 2016 and January-February 2017 to evaluate the oxidation capacity over the remote oceans and its representation by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. The model successfully simulates the magnitude and vertical profile of remote OH within the measurement uncertainties. Comparisons against the drivers of OH production (water vapor, ozone, and NO y concentrations, ozone photolysis frequencies) also show minimal bias, with the exception of wintertime NO y . The severe model overestimate of NO y during this period may indicate insufficient wet scavenging and/or missing loss on sea-salt aerosols. Large uncertainties in these processes require further study to improve simulated NO y partitioning and removal in the troposphere, but preliminary tests suggest that their overall impact could marginally reduce the model bias in tropospheric OH. During the ATom-1 deployment, OH reactivity (OHR) below 3 km is significantly enhanced, and this is not captured by the sum of its measured components (cOHRobs) or by the model (cOHRmod). This enhancement could suggest missing reactive VOCs but cannot be explained by a comprehensive simulation of both biotic and abiotic ocean sources of VOCs. Additional sources of VOC reactivity in this region are difficult to reconcile with the full suite of ATom measurement constraints. The model generally reproduces the magnitude and seasonality of cOHRobs but underestimates the contribution of oxygenated VOCs, mainly acetaldehyde, which is severely underestimated throughout the troposphere despite its calculated lifetime of less than a day. Missing model acetaldehyde in previous studies was attributed to measurement uncertainties that have been largely resolved. Observations of peroxyacetic acid (PAA) provide new support for remote levels of acetaldehyde. The underestimate in both model acetaldehyde and PAA is present throughout the year in both hemispheres and peaks during Northern Hemisphere summer. The addition of ocean sources of VOCs in the model increases cOHRmod by 3% to 9% and improves model-measurement agreement for acetaldehyde, particularly in winter, but cannot resolve the model summertime bias. Doing so would require 100 Tg yr-1 of a long-lived unknown precursor throughout the year with significant additional emissions in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Improving the model bias for remote acetaldehyde and PAA is unlikely to fully resolve previously reported model global biases in OH and methane lifetime, suggesting that future work should examine the sources and sinks of OH over land.

Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations

Several lines of evidence point to an increase in the activity of the terrestrial biosphere over recent decades, impacting the global net land carbon sink (NLS) and its control on the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide (ca ). Global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP)-the rate of carbon fixation by photosynthesis-is estimated to have risen by (31 ± 5)% since 1900, but the relative contributions of different putative drivers to this increase are not well known. Here we identify the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration as the dominant driver. We reconcile leaf-level and global atmospheric constraints on trends in modeled biospheric activity to reveal a global CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis of 30% since 1900, or 47% for a doubling of ca above the pre-industrial level. Our historic value is nearly twice as high as current estimates (17 ± 4)% that do not use the full range of available constraints. Consequently, under a future low-emission scenario, we project a land carbon sink (174 PgC, 2006-2099) that is 57 PgC larger than if a lower CO2 fertilization effect comparable with current estimates is assumed. These findings suggest a larger beneficial role of the land carbon sink in modulating future excess anthropogenic CO2 consistent with the target of the Paris Agreement to stay below 2°C warming, and underscore the importance of preserving terrestrial carbon sinks.

Recent Trends in Stratospheric Chlorine From Very Short-Lived Substances

Very short-lived substances (VSLS), including dichloromethane (CH2Cl2), chloroform (CHCl3), perchloroethylene (C2Cl4), and 1,2-dichloroethane (C2H4Cl2), are a stratospheric chlorine source and therefore contribute to ozone depletion. We quantify stratospheric chlorine trends from these VSLS (VSLCltot) using a chemical transport model and atmospheric measurements, including novel high-altitude aircraft data from the NASA VIRGAS (2015) and POSIDON (2016) missions. We estimate VSLCltot increased from 69 (±14) parts per trillion (ppt) Cl in 2000 to 111 (±22) ppt Cl in 2017, with >80% delivered to the stratosphere through source gas injection, and the remainder from product gases. The modeled evolution of chlorine source gas injection agrees well with historical aircraft data, which corroborate reported surface CH2Cl2 increases since the mid-2000s. The relative contribution of VSLS to total stratospheric chlorine increased from ~2% in 2000 to ~3.4% in 2017, reflecting both VSLS growth and decreases in long-lived halocarbons. We derive a mean VSLCltot growth rate of 3.8 (±0.3) ppt Cl/year between 2004 and 2017, though year-to-year growth rates are variable and were small or negative in the period 2015-2017. Whether this is a transient effect, or longer-term stabilization, requires monitoring. In the upper stratosphere, the modeled rate of HCl decline (2004-2017) is -5.2% per decade with VSLS included, in good agreement to ACE satellite data (-4.8% per decade), and 15% slower than a model simulation without VSLS. Thus, VSLS have offset a portion of stratospheric chlorine reductions since the mid-2000s.

Efficient In-Cloud Removal of Aerosols by Deep Convection

Convective systems dominate the vertical transport of aerosols and trace gases. The most recent in situ aerosol measurements presented here show that the concentrations of primary aerosols including sea salt and black carbon drop by factors of 10 to 10,000 from the surface to the upper troposphere. In this study we show that the default convective transport scheme in the National Science Foundation/Department of Energy Community Earth System Model results in a high bias of 10-1,000 times the measured aerosol mass for black carbon and sea salt in the middle and upper troposphere. A modified transport scheme, which considers aerosol activation from entrained air above the cloud base and aerosol-cloud interaction associated with convection, dramatically improves model agreement with in situ measurements suggesting that deep convection can efficiently remove primary aerosols. We suggest that models that fail to consider secondary activation may overestimate black carbon's radiative forcing by a factor of 2.

Global atmospheric CO2 inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate

We have compared a suite of recent global CO2 atmospheric inversion results to independent airborne observations and to each other, to assess their dependence on differences in northern extratropical (NET) vertical transport and to identify some of the drivers of model spread. We evaluate posterior CO2 concentration profiles against observations from the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaigns over the mid-Pacific in 2009-2011. Although the models differ in inverse approaches, assimilated observations, prior fluxes, and transport models, their broad latitudinal separation of land fluxes has converged significantly since the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Inversion Intercomparison (TransCom 3) and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) projects, with model spread reduced by 80% since TransCom 3 and 70% since RECCAP. Most modeled CO2 fields agree reasonably well with the HIPPO observations, specifically for the annual mean vertical gradients in the Northern Hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere vertical mixing no longer appears to be a dominant driver of northern versus tropical (T) annual flux differences. Our newer suite of models still gives northern extratropical land uptake that is modest relative to previous estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013) and near-neutral tropical land uptake for 2009-2011. Given estimates of emissions from deforestation, this implies a continued uptake in intact tropical forests that is strong relative to historical estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013). The results from these models for other time periods (2004-2014, 2001-2004, 1992-1996) and reevaluation of the TransCom 3 Level 2 and RECCAP results confirm that tropical land carbon fluxes including deforestation have been near neutral for several decades. However, models still have large disagreements on ocean-land partitioning. The fossil fuel (FF) and the atmospheric growth rate terms have been thought to be the best-known terms in the global carbon budget, but we show that they currently limit our ability to assess regional-scale terrestrial fluxes and ocean-land partitioning from the model ensemble.

Using a Speed-Dependent Voigt Line Shape to Retrieve O2 from Total Carbon Column Observing Network Solar Spectra to Improve Measurements of XCO2

High-resolution, laboratory, absorption spectra of the a 1 Δ g ← X 3 ∑ g - oxygen (O₂) band measured using cavity ring-down spectroscopy were fitted using the Voigt and speed-dependent Voigt line shapes. We found that the speed-dependent Voigt line shape was better able to model the measured absorption coefficients than the Voigt line shape. We used these line shape models to calculate absorption coefficients to retrieve atmospheric total columns abundances of O₂ from ground-based spectra from four Fourier transform spectrometers that are apart of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) Lower O₂ total columns were retrieved with the speed-dependent Voigt line shape, and the difference between the total columns retrieved using the Voigt and speed-dependent Voigt line shapes increased as a function of solar zenith angle. Previous work has shown that carbon dioxide (CO₂) total columns are better retrieved using a speed-dependent Voigt line shape with line mixing. The column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO₂ (XCO₂) was calculated using the ratio between the columns of CO₂ and O₂ retrieved (from the same spectra) with both line shapes from measurements made over a one-year period at the four sites. The inclusion of speed dependence in the O₂ retrievals significantly reduces the airmass dependence of XCO₂ and the bias between the TCCON measurements and calibrated integrated aircraft profile measurements was reduced from 1% to 0.4%. These results suggest that speed dependence should be included in the forward model when fitting near-infrared CO₂ and O₂ spectra to improve the accuracy of XCO₂ measurements.

A Global Synthesis Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

The precise contribution of the two major sinks for anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, terrestrial vegetation and the ocean, and their location and year-to-year variability are not well understood. Top-down estimates of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO₂ are expected to benefit from the increasing measurement density brought by recent in situ and remote CO₂ observations. We uniquely apply a batch Bayesian synthesis inversion at relatively high resolution to in situ surface observations and bias-corrected GOSAT satellite column CO₂ retrievals to deduce the global distributions of natural CO₂ fluxes during 2009-2010. Our objectives include evaluating bottom-up prior flux estimates, assessing the value added by the satellite data, and examining the impacts of inversion technique and assumptions on posterior fluxes and uncertainties. The GOSAT inversion is generally better constrained than the in situ inversion, with smaller posterior regional flux uncertainties and correlations, because of greater spatial coverage, except over North America and high-latitude ocean. Complementarity of the in situ and GOSAT data enhances uncertainty reductions in a joint inversion; however, spatial and temporal gaps in sampling still limit the ability to accurately resolve fluxes down to the sub-continental scale. The GOSAT inversion produces a shift in the global CO₂ sink from the tropics to the north and south relative to the prior, and an increased source in the tropics of ~2 Pg C y^-1 relative to the in situ inversion, similar to what is seen in studies using other inversion approaches. This result may be driven by sampling and residual retrieval biases in the GOSAT data, as suggested by significant discrepancies between posterior CO₂ distributions and surface in situ and HIPPO mission aircraft data. While the shift in the global sink appears to be a robust feature of the inversions, the partitioning of the sink between land and ocean in the inversions using either in situ or GOSAT data is found to be sensitive to prior uncertainties because of negative correlations in the flux errors. The GOSAT inversion indicates significantly less CO₂ uptake in summer of 2010 than in 2009 across northern regions, consistent with the impact of observed severe heat waves and drought. However, observations from an in situ network in Siberia imply that the GOSAT inversion exaggerates the 2010-2009 difference in uptake in that region, while the prior CASA-GFED model of net ecosystem production and fire emissions reasonably estimates that quantity. The prior, in situ posterior, and GOSAT posterior all indicate greater uptake over North America in spring to early summer of 2010 than in 2009, consistent with wetter conditions. The GOSAT inversion does not show the expected impact on fluxes of a 2010 drought in the Amazon; evaluation of posterior mole fractions against local aircraft profiles suggests that time-varying GOSAT coverage can bias estimation of flux interannual variability in this region.

Chemical evidence of inter-hemispheric air mass intrusion into the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

The East Asian Summer Monsoon driven by temperature and moisture gradients between the Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean, leads to approximately 50% of the annual rainfall in the region across 20–40°N. Due to its increasing scientific and social importance, there have been several previous studies on identification of moisture sources for summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia mainly using Lagrangian or Eulerian atmospheric water vapor models. The major source regions for EASM previously proposed include the North Indian Ocean, South China Sea and North western Pacific. Based on high-precision and high-frequency 6-year measurement records of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), here we report a direct evidence of rapid intrusion of warm and moist tropical air mass from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) reaching within a couple of days up to 33°N into East Asia. We further suggest that the combination of direct chemical tracer record and a back-trajectory model with physical meteorological variables helps pave the way to identify moisture sources for monsoon rainfall. A case study for Gosan station (33.25°N, 126.19°E) indicates that the meridional transport of precipitable water from the SH accompanying the southerly/southwesterly flow contributes most significantly to its summer rainfall.

A potential large and persistent black carbon forcing over Northern Pacific inferred from satellite observations

Black carbon (BC) aerosol strongly absorbs solar radiation, which warms climate. However, accurate estimation of BC's climate effect is limited by the uncertainties of its spatiotemporal distribution, especially over remote oceanic areas. The HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observation (HIPPO) program from 2009 to 2011 intercepted multiple snapshots of BC profiles over Pacific in various seasons, and revealed a 2 to 5 times overestimate of BC by current global models. In this study, we compared the measurements from aircraft campaigns and satellites, and found a robust association between BC concentrations and satellite-retrieved CO, tropospheric NO2, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) (R2 > 0.8). This establishes a basis to construct a satellite-based column BC approximation (sBC*) over remote oceans. The inferred sBC* shows that Asian outflows in spring bring much more BC aerosols to the mid-Pacific than those occurring in other seasons. In addition, inter-annual variability of sBC* is seen over the Northern Pacific, with abundances varying consistently with the springtime Pacific/North American (PNA) index. Our sBC* dataset infers a widespread overestimation of BC loadings and BC Direct Radiative Forcing by current models over North Pacific, which further suggests that large uncertainties exist on aerosol-climate interactions over other remote oceanic areas beyond Pacific.

Unrealistically pristine air in the Arctic produced by current global scale models

Black carbon aerosol (BCA) in the Arctic has profound impacts on the global climate system through radiation processes. Despite its enormous impacts, current global scale models, powerful tools for estimating overall impact, tend to underestimate the levels of BCA in the Arctic over several seasons. Using a global aerosol transport simulation with a horizontal grid resolution of 3.5 km, we determined that a higher resolution significantly reduced the underestimation of BCA levels in the Arctic, mainly due to an enhancement of the representation of low-pressure and frontal systems. The BCA mass loading in the Arctic simulated with 3.5-km grid resolution was 4.2-times larger than that simulated with coarse (56-km) grid resolution. Our results also indicated that grid convergence had not occurred on both the contrast between the cloud/cloud free areas and the poleward BCA mass flux, despite the use of the 3.5-km grid resolution. These results suggest that a global aerosol transport simulation using kilometre-order or finer grid resolution is required for more accurate estimation of the distribution of pollutants in the Arctic.

Continued emissions of carbon tetrachloride from the United States nearly two decades after its phaseout for dispersive uses

National-scale emissions of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) are derived based on inverse modeling of atmospheric observations at multiple sites across the United States from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's flask air sampling network. We estimate an annual average US emission of 4.0 (2.0-6.5) Gg CCl4 y(-1) during 2008-2012, which is almost two orders of magnitude larger than reported to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) (mean of 0.06 Gg y(-1)) but only 8% (3-22%) of global CCl4 emissions during these years. Emissive regions identified by the observations and consistently shown in all inversion results include the Gulf Coast states, the San Francisco Bay Area in California, and the Denver area in Colorado. Both the observation-derived emissions and the US EPA TRI identified Texas and Louisiana as the largest contributors, accounting for one- to two-thirds of the US national total CCl4 emission during 2008-2012. These results are qualitatively consistent with multiple aircraft and ship surveys conducted in earlier years, which suggested significant enhancements in atmospheric mole fractions measured near Houston and surrounding areas. Furthermore, the emission distribution derived for CCl4 throughout the United States is more consistent with the distribution of industrial activities included in the TRI than with the distribution of other potential CCl4 sources such as uncapped landfills or activities related to population density (e.g., use of chlorine-containing bleach).

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥ 50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y(-1), ∼ 25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼ 6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

δ(13)C-CH4 reveals CH4 variations over oceans from mid-latitudes to the Arctic

The biogeochemical cycles of CH4 over oceans are poorly understood, especially over the Arctic Ocean. Here we report atmospheric CH4 levels together with δ(13)C-CH4 from offshore China (31°N) to the central Arctic Ocean (up to 87°N) from July to September 2012. CH4 concentrations and δ(13)C-CH4 displayed temporal and spatial variation ranging from 1.65 to 2.63 ppm, and from -50.34% to -44.94% (mean value: -48.55 ± 0.84%), respectively. Changes in CH4 with latitude were linked to the decreasing input of enriched δ(13)C and chemical oxidation by both OH and Cl radicals as indicated by variation of δ(13)C. There were complex mixing sources outside and inside the Arctic Ocean. A keeling plot showed the dominant influence by hydrate gas in the Nordic Sea region, while the long range transport of wetland emissions were one of potentially important sources in the central Arctic Ocean. Experiments comparing sunlight and darkness indicate that microbes may also play an important role in regional variations.

Air quality and climate connections

Multiple linkages connect air quality and climate change. Many air pollutant sources also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). The two main contributors to non-attainment of U.S. ambient air quality standards, ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM), interact with radiation, forcing climate change. PM warms by absorbing sunlight (e.g., black carbon) or cools by scattering sunlight (e.g., sulfates) and interacts with clouds; these radiative and microphysical interactions can induce changes in precipitation and regional circulation patterns. Climate change is expected to degrade air quality in many polluted regions by changing air pollution meteorology (ventilation and dilution), precipitation and other removal processes, and by triggering some amplifying responses in atmospheric chemistry and in anthropogenic and natural sources. Together, these processes shape distributions and extreme episodes of O3 and PM. Global modeling indicates that as air pollution programs reduce SO2 to meet health and other air quality goals, near-term warming accelerates due to "unmasking" of warming induced by rising CO2. Air pollutant controls on CH4, a potent GHG and precursor to global O3 levels, and on sources with high black carbon (BC) to organic carbon (OC) ratios could offset near-term warming induced by SO2 emission reductions, while reducing global background O3 and regionally high levels of PM. Lowering peak warming requires decreasing atmospheric CO2, which for some source categories would also reduce co-emitted air pollutants or their precursors. Model projections for alternative climate and air quality scenarios indicate a wide range for U.S. surface O3 and fine PM, although regional projections may be confounded by interannual to decadal natural climate variability. Continued implementation of U.S. NOx emission controls guards against rising pollution levels triggered either by climate change or by global emission growth. Improved accuracy and trends in emission inventories are critical for accountability analyses of historical and projected air pollution and climate mitigation policies.

IMPLICATIONS

The expansion of U.S. air pollution policy to protect climate provides an opportunity for joint mitigation, with CH4 a prime target. BC reductions in developing nations would lower the global health burden, and for BC-rich sources (e.g., diesel) may lessen warming. Controls on these emissions could offset near-term warming induced by health-motivated reductions of sulfate (cooling). Wildfires, dust, and other natural PM and O3 sources may increase with climate warming, posing challenges to implementing and attaining air quality standards. Accountability analyses for recent and projected air pollution and climate control strategies should underpin estimated benefits and trade-offs of future policies.

Global emissions of refrigerants HCFC-22 and HFC-134a: unforeseen seasonal contributions

HCFC-22 (CHClF2) and HFC-134a (CH2FCF3) are two major gases currently used worldwide in domestic and commercial refrigeration and air conditioning. HCFC-22 contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion, and both species are potent greenhouse gases. In this work, we study in situ observations of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a taken from research aircraft over the Pacific Ocean in a 3-y span [HIaper-Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) 2009-2011] and combine these data with long-term ground observations from global surface sites [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) networks]. We find the global annual emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a have increased substantially over the past two decades. Emissions of HFC-134a are consistently higher compared with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) inventory since 2000, by 60% more in recent years (2009-2012). Apart from these decadal emission constraints, we also quantify recent seasonal emission patterns showing that summertime emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a are two to three times higher than wintertime emissions. This unforeseen large seasonal variation indicates that unaccounted mechanisms controlling refrigerant gas emissions are missing in the existing inventory estimates. Possible mechanisms enhancing refrigerant losses in summer are (i) higher vapor pressure in the sealed compartment of the system at summer high temperatures and (ii) more frequent use and service of refrigerators and air conditioners in summer months. Our results suggest that engineering (e.g., better temperature/vibration-resistant system sealing and new system design of more compact/efficient components) and regulatory (e.g., reinforcing system service regulations) steps to improve containment of these gases from working devices could effectively reduce their release to the atmosphere.

Observational evidence for interhemispheric hydroxyl-radical parity

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is a key oxidant involved in the removal of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The ratio of Northern Hemispheric to Southern Hemispheric (NH/SH) OH concentration is important for our understanding of emission estimates of atmospheric species such as nitrogen oxides and methane. It remains poorly constrained, however, with a range of estimates from 0.85 to 1.4 (refs 4, 7-10). Here we determine the NH/SH ratio of OH with the help of methyl chloroform data (a proxy for OH concentrations) and an atmospheric transport model that accurately describes interhemispheric transport and modelled emissions. We find that for the years 2004-2011 the model predicts an annual mean NH-SH gradient of methyl chloroform that is a tight linear function of the modelled NH/SH ratio in annual mean OH. We estimate a NH/SH OH ratio of 0.97 ± 0.12 during this time period by optimizing global total emissions and mean OH abundance to fit methyl chloroform data from two surface-measurement networks and aircraft campaigns. Our findings suggest that top-down emission estimates of reactive species such as nitrogen oxides in key emitting countries in the NH that are based on a NH/SH OH ratio larger than 1 may be overestimated.

Double blanket effect caused by two layers of black carbon aerosols escalates warming in the Brahmaputra River Valley

First ever 3-day aircraft observations of vertical profiles of Black Carbon (BC) were obtained during the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) conducted on 30^th August, 4^th and 6^th September 2009 over Guwahati (26°11′N, 91°44′E), the largest metropolitan city in the Brahmaputra River Valley (BRV) region. The results revealed that apart from the surface/near surface loading of BC due to anthropogenic processes causing a heating of 2 K/day, the large-scale Walker and Hadley atmospheric circulations associated with the Indian summer monsoon help in the formation of a second layer of black carbon in the upper atmosphere, which generates an upper atmospheric heating of ~2 K/day. Lofting of BC aerosols by these large-scale circulating atmospheric cells to the upper atmosphere (4–6 Km) could also be the reason for extreme climate change scenarios that are being witnessed in the BRV region.

Global-scale seasonally resolved black carbon vertical profiles over the Pacific

[1] Black carbon (BC) aerosol loadings were measured during the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaign above the remote Pacific from 85°N to 67°S. Over 700 vertical profiles extending from near the surface to max ∼14 km altitude were obtained with a single-particle soot photometer between early 2009 and mid-2011. The data provides a climatology of BC in the remote regions that reveals gradients of BC concentration reflecting global-scale transport and removal of pollution. BC is identified as a sensitive tracer of extratropical mixing into the lower tropical tropopause layer and trends toward surprisingly uniform loadings in the lower stratosphere of ∼1 ng/kg. The climatology is compared to predictions from the AeroCom global model intercomparison initiative. The AeroCom model suite overestimates loads in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (∼10×) more severely than at lower altitudes (∼3×), with bias roughly independent of season or geographic location; these results indicate that it overestimates BC lifetime.

Enhanced Seasonal Exchange of CO2 by Northern Ecosystems Since 1960

Seasonal variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Northern Hemisphere have increased since the 1950s, but sparse observations have prevented a clear assessment of the patterns of long-term change and the underlying mechanisms. We compare recent aircraft-based observations of CO2 above the North Pacific and Arctic Oceans to earlier data from 1958 to 1961 and find that the seasonal amplitude at altitudes of 3 to 6 km increased by 50% for 45° to 90°N but by less than 25% for 10° to 45°N. An increase of 30 to 60% in the seasonal exchange of CO2 by northern extratropical land ecosystems, focused on boreal forests, is implicated, substantially more than simulated by current land ecosystem models. The observations appear to signal large ecological changes in northern forests and a major shift in the global carbon cycle.

Atmospheric vertical profiles of O3, N2O, CH4, CCl2F2, and H2O retrieved from external-cavity quantum-cascade laser heterodyne radiometer measurements

Atmospheric vertical profiles of ozone, nitrous oxide, methane, dichlorodifluoromethane, and water are retrieved from data collected with a widely tunable external-cavity quantum-cascade laser heterodyne radiometer (EC-QC-LHR) covering a spectral range between 1120 and 1238 cm(-1). The instrument was operated in solar occultation mode during a two-month measurement campaign at Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire, UK, in winter 2010/2011, and ultrahigh-resolution (60 MHz or 0.002 cm(-1)) transmission spectra were recorded for multiple narrow spectral windows (~1 cm(-1) width) specific to each molecule. The ultrahigh spectral resolution of the EC-QC-LHR allows retrieving altitudinal profiles from transmission spectra that contain only few (1-3) significant absorption lines of a target molecule. Profiles are validated by comparing with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational atmospheric profiles (ozone and water), with other data in the literature (nitrous oxide, methane, dichlorodifluoromethane), and with retrievals from a lower resolution (600 MHz or 0.02 cm(-1)) Fourier transform spectroscopy data that were also recorded during the measurement campaign.

Greenhouse gases in the Earth system: setting the agenda to 2030

What do we need to know about greenhouse gases? Over the next 20 years, how should scientists study the role of greenhouse gases in the Earth system and the changes that are taking place? These questions were addressed at a Royal Society scientific Discussion Meeting in London on 22-23 February 2010, with over 300 participants.