Global drought trends and future projections

Response of Elymus nutans Griseb. seedling physiology and endogenous hormones to drought and salt stress

Elymus nutans Griseb. (E. nutans), a pioneer plant for the restoration of high quality pasture and vegetation, is widely used to establish artificial grasslands and ecologically restore arid and salinized soils. To investigate the effects of drought stress and salt stress on the physiology and endogenous hormones of E. nutans seedlings, this experiment configured the same environmental water potential (0 (CK), - 0.04, - 0.14, - 0.29, - 0.49, - 0.73, and - 1.02 MPa) of PEG-6000 and NaCl stress to investigate the effects of drought stress and salt stress, respectively, on E. nutans seedlings under the same environmental water potential. The results showed that although the physiological indices and endogenous hormones of the E. nutans seedlings responded differently to drought stress and salt stress under the same environmental water potential, the physiological indices of E. nutans shoots and roots were comprehensively evaluated using the genus function method, and the physiological indices of the E. nutans seedlings under the same environmental water potential exhibited better salt tolerance than drought tolerance. The changes in endogenous hormones of the E. nutans seedlings under drought stress were analyzed to find that treatment with gibberellic acid (GA3), gibberellin A7 (GA7), 6-benzyladenine (6-BA), 6-(y,y-dimethylallylaminopurine) (2.IP), trans-zeatin (TZ), kinetin (KT), dihydrozeatin (DHZ), indole acetic acid (IAA), and 2,6-dichloroisonicotininc acid (INA) was more effective than those under drought stress. By analyzing the amplitude of changes in the endogenous hormones in E. nutans seedlings, the amplitude of changes in the contents of GA3, GA7, 6-BA, 2.IP, TZ, KT, DHZ, IAA, isopentenyl adenosine (IPA), indole-3-butyric acid (IBA), naphthalene acetic acid (NAA), and abscisic acid was larger in drought stress compared with salt stress, which could be because the endogenous hormones are important for the drought tolerance of E. nutans itself. The amplitude of the changes in the contents of DHZ, TZR, salicylic acid, and jasmonic acid was larger in salt stress compared with drought stress. Changes in the content of melatonin were larger in salt stress compared with drought stress, which could indicate that endogenous hormones and substances are important for the salt tolerance of E. nutans itself.

Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950-2020 and 1850-2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970-2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

Pepper SBP-box transcription factor, CaSBP13, plays a negatively role in drought response

The SBP-box gene significantly influences plant growth, development, and stress responses, yet its function in pepper plants during drought stress remains unexplored. Using virus-induced gene silencing and overexpression strategies, we examined the role of CaSBP13 during drought stress in plants. The results revealed that the expression of CaSBP13 can be induced by drought stress. Silencing of CaSBP13 in pepper notably boosted drought resistance, as evident by decreased active oxygen levels. Furthermore, the water loss rate, relative electrical conductivity, malondialdehyde content, and stomatal density were reduced in CaSBP13-silenced plants compared to controls. In contrast, CaSBP13 overexpression in Nicotiana benthamiana decreased drought tolerance with elevated reactive oxygen levels and stomatal density. Additionally, ABA signaling pathway genes (CaPP2C, CaAREB) exhibited reduced expression levels in CaSBP13-silenced plants post drought stress, as compared to control plants. On the contrary, CaPYL9 and CaSNRK2.4 showed heightened expression in CaSBP13-sienced plants under the same conditions. However, a converse trend for NbAREB, NbSNRK2.4, and NbPYL9 was observed post-four day drought in CaSBP13-overexpression plants. These findings suggest that CaSBP13 negatively regulates drought tolerance in pepper, potentially via ROS and ABA signaling pathways.

Catalogue of drought events in peninsular Spanish along 1916-2020 period

We leveraged the most extensive and detailed gridded database of monthly precipitation data across the Spanish mainland (MOPREDAScentury), encompassing 1916-2020 time period, to pinpoint the most severe drought events within this timeframe and analyse their spatio-temporal dynamics. To identify these events, we employed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at a 12-month timescale. Drought events were identified as periods of at least three months where significantly dry conditions affected 20% or more of the study area, defined as grid cells with SPI values lower than -0.84. Our analysis revealed a total of 40 major drought events. Our catalogue contains detailed information on each episode's spatial extent, duration, severity, and spatio-temporal dynamics. The analysis of the propagation patterns of the events unveils substantial heterogeneity, implying that droughts stem from diverse atmospheric mechanisms, further influenced by complex local topography. The open-licensed drought database serves as a valuable resource. It not only facilitates exploration of drought onset and evolution mechanisms but also aids in assessing drought impact on agricultural and other socio-economic sectors.

Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity

In contrast to most integrated assessment models, with limited transparency on damage functions and recursive temporal dynamics, we use a unique large-dimensional computational global climate and trade model, GTAP-DynW, to directly project the possible intertemporal impacts of water and heat stress on global food supply and food security to 2050. The GTAP-DynW model uses GTAP production and trade data for 141 countries and regions, with varying water and heat stress baselines, and results are aggregated into 30 countries/regions and 30 commodity sectors. Blue water stress projections are drawn from WRI source material and a GTAP-Water database to incorporate dynamic changes in water resources and their availability in agricultural production and international trade, thus providing a more general measure for severe food insecurity from water and heat stress damages with global warming. Findings are presented for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs) and project: (a) substantial declines, as measured by GCal, in global food production of some 6%, 10%, and 14% to 2050 and (b) the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, correspondingly, increases by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.

RING-type E3 ligase BnaJUL1 ubiquitinates and degrades BnaTBCC1 to regulate drought tolerance in Brassica napus L

Drought stress poses a persistent threat to field crops and significantly limits global agricultural productivity. Plants employ ubiquitin-dependent degradation as a crucial post-translational regulatory mechanism to swiftly adapt to changing environmental conditions. JUL1 is a RING-type E3 ligase related to drought stress in Arabidopsis. In this study, we explored the function of BnaJUL1 (a homologous gene of JUL1 in Brassica napus) and discovered a novel gene BnaTBCC1 participating in drought tolerance. First, we utilised BnaJUL1-cri materials through the clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-CRISPR-associated protein 9 system. Second, we confirmed that BnaJUL1 regulated drought tolerance through the drought tolerance assay and transcriptome analysis. Then, we identified a series of proteins interacting with BnaJUL1 through yeast library screening, including BnaTBCC1 (a tubulin binding cofactor C domain-containing protein); whose homologous gene TBCC1 knockdown mutants (tbcc1-1) exhibited ABA-sensitive germination in Arabidopsis, we then confirmed the involvement of BnaTBCC1 in drought tolerance in both Arabidopsis and Brassica. Finally, we established that BnaJUL1 could ubiquitinate and degrade BnaTBCC1 to regulate drought tolerance. Consequently, our study unveils BnaJUL1 as a novel regulator that ubiquitinates and degrades BnaTBCC1 to modulate drought tolerance and provided desirable germplasm for further breeding of drought tolerance in rapeseed.

The factors affecting the development of medicinal plants from a value chain perspective

MAIN CONCLUSION

From a value chain perspective, this paper examines the important factors from the selection of planting areas to storage, which restrict the development of medicinal plants. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical basis for the sustainable development of medicinal plants. Medicinal plants have significant economic and medicinal value. Due to the gradual depletion of wild medicinal plant resources, cultivators of medicinal plants must resort to artificial cultivation to cope. However, there are still many problems in the production process of medicinal plants, resulting in decreases in both yield and quality, thus hindering sustainable development. To date, research on the value chain of medicinal plants is still limited. Therefore, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the development of medicinal plants from the perspective of the value chain, including the selection of growing areas to the storage process of medicinal plants, and summarizes the challenges faced in the production process of medicinal plants. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical basis for the sustainable development of medicinal plants.

Growth of tree (Pinus sylvestris) and shrub (Amelanchier ovalis) species is constrained by drought with higher shrub sensitivity in dry sites

We lack understanding of how variable is radial growth of coexisting tree and shrub species, and how growth is constrained by drought depending on site aridity. Here, we compared the radial growth of two widespread and coexisting species, a winter deciduous shrub (Amelanchier ovalis Medik.) and an evergreen conifer tree (Pinus sylvestris L.). We sampled four sites in Northeastern Spain subjected to different aridity levels and used dendrochronological methods to quantify growth patterns and responses to climate variables. The growth of the two species varied between regions, being lower in the driest sites. The first-order autocorrelation (growth persistence) was higher in more mesic sites but without clear differences between species. Tree and shrub growth negatively responded to elevated summer temperatures and positively to spring-summer precipitation and wet conditions. However, negative growth responses of the shrub to drought were only observed in the two driest sites in contrast to widespread responses of the tree. Abrupt growth reductions were common in the drier sites, but resilience indices show that the two species rapidly recovered pre-drought growth levels. The lower growth synchrony of the shrub as compared to the tree can be due to the multistemmed architecture, fast growth and low stature of the shrub. Besides, the high dependency of the shrub growth on summer rainfall can explain why drought limitations were only apparent in the two driest sites. In any case, results point out to the dendrochronological potential of shrubs, which is particularly relevant giving its ability to inhabit woodlands and treeless regions under harsh climatic conditions. Nevertheless, further research is required to elucidate the capacity of shrub species to tolerate drought, as well as to understand how shrubs thrive in water- and cold-limited environments.

Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial-temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960-2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040-2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.

Unveiling changes in rhizosphere-associated bacteria linked to the genotype and water stress in quinoa

Drought is among the main abiotic factors causing agronomical losses worldwide. To minimize its impact, several strategies have been proposed, including the use of plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGPBs), as they have demonstrated roles in counteracting abiotic stress. This aspect has been little explored in emergent crops such as quinoa, which has the potential to contribute to reducing food insecurity. Thus, here we hypothesize that the genotype, water environment and the type of inoculant are determining factors in shaping quinoa rhizosphere bacterial communities, affecting plant performance. To address this, two different quinoa cultivars (with contrasting water stress tolerance), two water conditions (optimal and limiting water conditions) and different soil infusions were used to define the relevance of these factors. Different bacterial families that vary among genotypes and water conditions were identified. Certain families were enriched under water stress conditions, such as the Nocardioidaceae, highly present in the water-sensitive cultivar F15, or the Pseudomonadaceae, Burkholderiaceae and Sphingomonadaceae, more abundant in the tolerant cultivar F16, which also showed larger total polyphenol content. These changes demonstrate that the genotype and environment highly contribute to shaping the root-inhabiting bacteria in quinoa, and they suggest that this plant species is a great source of PGPBs for utilization under water-liming conditions.

Magnitude and direction of green-up date in response to drought depend on background climate over Mongolian grassland

Increasing drought is one major consequence of ongoing global climate change and is expected to cause significant changes in vegetation phenology, especially for naturally vulnerable ecosystems such as grassland. However, the linkage between the response characteristic of green-up date (GUD) to drought and background climate remains largely unknown. Here, we focused on how the GUD of Mongolian grassland responds to extreme drought events (EDE). We first extracted the GUD from the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index data during 2001-2020 and identified the preseason EDE using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index data. Subsequently, we quantified the response of GUD to preseason EDE (DGUD) in each pixel as the difference in GUD between drought and normal years. The effect of 12 factors on DGUD was analyzed using the random forest algorithm. The results showed that the GUD under EDE may delay or advance by > 20 days compared to normal years. For the regions with mean annual temperature > -2 °C, the GUD was delayed under EDE due to the dominant role of water restriction on GUD, while the GUD was advanced under EDE in colder areas due to the warmer temperature during drought. However, the magnitude of delay in GUD under drought was greater in regions with less precipitation and more severe droughts. Our results could help to develop appropriate management strategies to mitigate the impacts of drought on grasslands.

Advances and Challenges for Hydrovoltaic Intelligence

In recent years, excessive exploitation and rapid population growth have posed numerous challenges. The climate crisis is deepening because of the unabated use of fossil fuels and the ascendance of greenhouse gas levels, so there is still an urgent need to seek different clean energy sources and electricity generating methods with the purpose of adjusting energy structures and solving environmental problems. In the ubiquitous hydrologic cycle, at least 60 petawatts (10¹⁵ W) energy can be supplied, but little of it has yet been utilized. Nowadays, hydrovoltaic intelligence has emerged and exhibited an ecofriendly concept of electricity generation compared with traditional methods with the rise of nanoscience and nanomaterials. Hence, it provides the prospect of upgrading the mode of water energy use, constructing a renewable energy industry, and alleviating environmental issues. In this review, starting by introducing different types of hydrovoltaic effect mechanisms─energy harvesting based on drawing potential of liquids; energy harvesting based on water evaporation, and energy harvesting based on moisture adsorption─we summarize the fabrication processes, material classifications, intelligent applications, and representative advances in detail. Moreover, the future development trends of hydrovoltaic intelligence and the challenges for improvement in electrical output are further discussed.

Towards diverse agricultural land uses: socio-ecological implications of European agricultural pathways for a Swiss orchard region

Diverse agricultural land uses are a typical feature of multifunctional landscapes. The uncertain change in the drivers of global land use, such as climate, market and policy technology and demography, challenges the long-term management of agricultural diversification. As these global drivers also affect smaller scales, it is important to capture the traits of regionally specific farm activities to facilitate adaptation to change. By downscaling European shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for agricultural and food systems, combined with representative concentration pathways (RCP) to regionally specific, alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios, the present study explores the major impacts of the drivers of global land use on regional agriculture by simulating farm-level decisions and identifies the socio-ecological implications for promoting diverse agricultural landscapes in 2050. A hilly orchard region in northern Switzerland was chosen as a case study to represent the multifunctional nature of Swiss agriculture. Results show that the different regionalised pathways lead to contrasting impacts on orchard meadows, production levels and biodiversity. Increased financial support for ecological measures, adequate farm labour supplies for more labour-intensive farming and consumer preferences that favour local farm produce can offset the negative impacts of climate change and commodity prices and contribute to agricultural diversification and farmland biodiversity. However, these conditions also caused a significant decline in farm production levels. This study suggests that considering a broader set of land use drivers beyond direct payments, while acknowledging potential trade-offs and diverse impacts across different farm types, is required to effectively manage and sustain diversified agricultural landscapes in the long run.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02092-5.

Global drought trends and future projections

Drought is one of the most difficult natural hazards to quantify and is divided into categories (meteorological, agricultural, ecological and hydrological), which makes assessing recent changes and future scenarios extremely difficult. This opinion piece includes a review of the recent scientific literature on the topic and analyses trends in meteorological droughts by using long-term precipitation records and different drought metrics to evaluate the role of global warming processes in trends of agricultural, hydrological and ecological drought severity over the last four decades, during which a sharp increase in atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) has been recorded. Meteorological droughts do not show any substantial changes at the global scale in at least the last 120 years, but an increase in the severity of agricultural and ecological droughts seems to emerge as a consequence of the increase in the severity of AED. Lastly, this study evaluates drought projections from earth system models and focuses on the most important aspects that need to be considered when evaluating drought processes in a changing climate, such as the use of different metrics and the uncertainty of modelling approaches. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue 'Drought risk in the Anthropocene'.