The biology of mass extinction: a palaeontological view

Gastropods underwent a major taxonomic turnover during the end-Triassic marine mass extinction event

Based on an exhaustive database of gastropod genera and subgenera during the Triassic-Jurassic transition, origination and extinction percentages and resulting diversity changes are calculated, with a particular focus on the end-Triassic mass extinction event. We show that gastropods suffered a loss of 56% of genera and subgenera during this event, which was higher than the average of marine life (46.8%). Among molluscs, gastropods were more strongly affected than bivalves (43.4%) but less than ammonoids, which were nearly annihilated. However, there were also pronounced differences among gastropod subclasses. The most strongly affected subclass was the Neritimorphia, which lost 72.7% of their Rhaetian genera; on the other extreme, the Heterobranchia remained nearly unaffected (11% loss). We analysed this extinction pattern with respect to larval development, palaeobiogeography, shell size, and anatomy and found that putative feeding of the pelagic larval stage, adaptation to tropical-temperate water temperatures, and flexibility of the mantle attachment were among the factors that might explain extinction resilience of heterobranchs during the end-Triassic crisis. Among molluscs, extinction magnitude roughly correlates with locomotion activity and thus metabolic rates. We suggest three potential kill mechanisms that could account for these observations: global warming, ocean acidification, and extinction of marine plankton. The end-Triassic extinction of gastropods therefore fits to proposed extinction scenarios for this event, which invoke the magmatic activity of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province as the ultimate cause of death. With respect to gastropods, the effect of the end-Triassic mass extinction was comparable to that of the end-Permian mass extinction. Notably, Heterobranchia was relatively little affected by both events; the extinction resilience of this subclass during times of global environmental changes was therefore possibly a key aspect of their subsequent evolutionary success.

The preservation potential of terrestrial biogeographic patterns

Extinction events in the geological past are similar to the present-day biodiversity crisis in that they have a pronounced biogeography, producing dramatic changes in the spatial distributions of species. Reconstructing palaeobiogeographic patterns from fossils therefore allows us to examine the long-term processes governing the formation of regional biotas, and potentially helps build spatially explicit models for future biodiversity loss. However, the extent to which biogeographic patterns can be preserved in the fossil record is not well understood. Here, we perform a suite of simulations based on the present-day distribution of North American mammals, aimed at quantifying the preservation potential of beta diversity and spatial richness patterns over extinction events of varying intensities, and after applying a stepped series of taphonomic filters. We show that taphonomic biases related to body size are the biggest barrier to reconstructing biogeographic patterns over extinction events, but that these may be compensated for by both the small mammal record preserved in bird castings, as well as range expansion in surviving species. Overall, our results suggest that the preservation potential of biogeographic patterns is surprisingly high, and thus that the fossil record represents an invaluable dataset recording the changing spatial distribution of biota over key intervals in Earth History.

Simple sequence repeats drive genome plasticity and promote adaptive evolution in penaeid shrimp

Simple sequence repeats (SSRs) are rare (approximately 1%) in most genomes and are generally considered to have no function. However, penaeid shrimp genomes have a high proportion of SSRs (>23%), raising the question of whether these SSRs play important functional and evolutionary roles in these SSR-rich species. Here, we show that SSRs drive genome plasticity and adaptive evolution in two penaeid shrimp species, Fenneropenaeus chinensis and Litopenaeus vannamei. Assembly and comparison of genomes of these two shrimp species at the chromosome-level revealed that transposable elements serve as carriers for SSR expansion, which is still occurring. The remarkable genome plasticity identified herein might have been shaped by significant SSR expansions. SSRs were also found to regulate gene expression by multi-omics analyses, and be responsible for driving adaptive evolution, such as the variable osmoregulatory capacities of these shrimp under low-salinity stress. These data provide strong evidence that SSRs are an important driver of the adaptive evolution in penaeid shrimp.

Eco-evolutionary perspectives on emergence, dispersion and dissolution of historical Dutch commons

Historical commons represent self-governed governance regimes that regulate the use and management of natural and man-made shared resources. Despite growing scientific interests, analyses of commons evolution and temporal dynamics are rare and drivers of change (birth, adaptation, dissolution) remain obscure. We apply an interdisciplinary approach and address these issues from an eco-evolutionary perspective. Analyses of > 400 Dutch commons over more than a millennium (between the 9th and the 20th century) uncovered that most commons originated between 1200 and 1700, and that there was a particularly high rate of evolution during 1300-1550, a pattern intermediate to gradualism and punctuated equilibrium in biological evolution. Dissolutions of commons were rare prior to 1800 and peaked around 1850, comparable to a mass extinction in biology. Temporal trends in number, spatial distribution, density, and dispersion of historical commons were distinctive and resembled developments seen at the levels of species and individuals in the growth of biological communities and populations, in that they showed signs of saturation determined by the abundance and distribution of resources. The spatiotemporal dynamics of commons also pointed to important roles of social, economic and political factors, such as new reclamations of resources and pressure on resources due to population growth. Despite internal and external pressures, the self-governing commons studied here were very successful, in the sense that they persisted for on average >350 years. There was a weak positive relationship between the use of multiple resources and the lifespan of commons, resembling associations between diversity and persistence seen in biological systems. It is argued that eco-evolutionary perspectives can further the understanding of the long-term dynamics of commons as institutions for collective action, vitalize future research, improve management of shared goods, and advise about sustainable utilization of finite resources.

Miocene biome turnover drove conservative body size evolution across Australian vertebrates

On deep time scales, changing climatic trends can have a predictable influence on macroevolution. From evidence of mass extinctions, we know that rapid climatic oscillations can indirectly open niche space and precipitate adaptive radiation, changing the course of ecological diversification. These dramatic shifts in the global climate, however, are rare events relative to extended periods of protracted climate change and biome turnover. It remains unclear whether during gradually changing periods, shifting habitats may instead promote non-adaptive speciation by facilitating allopatry and phenotypic conservatism. Using fossil-calibrated, species-level phylogenies for five Australian radiations comprising more than 800 species, we investigated temporal trends in biogeography and body size evolution. Here, we demonstrate that gradual Miocene cooling and aridification correlates with the restricted phenotypic diversification of multiple ecologically diverse vertebrate groups. This probably occurred as species ranges became fractured and isolated during continental biome restructuring, encouraging a shift towards conservatism in body size evolution. Our results provide further evidence that abiotic changes, not only biotic interactions, may act as selective forces influencing phenotypic macroevolution.

Identifying the most surprising victims of mass extinction events: an example using Late Ordovician brachiopods

Mass extinction events are recognized by increases in extinction rate and magnitude and, often, by changes in the selectivity of extinction. When considering the selective fingerprint of a particular event, not all taxon extinctions are equally informative: some would be expected even under a ‘background’ selectivity regime, whereas others would not and thus require special explanation. When evaluating possible drivers for the extinction event, the latter group is of particular interest. Here, we introduce a simple method for identifying these most surprising victims of extinction events by training models on background extinction intervals and using these models to make per-taxon assessments of ‘expected’ risk during the extinction interval. As an example, we examine brachiopod genus extinctions during the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction and show that extinction of genera in the deep-water ‘Foliomena fauna’ was particularly unexpected given preceding Late Ordovician extinction patterns.

Developmental push or environmental pull? The causes of macroevolutionary dynamics

Have the large-scale evolutionary patterns illustrated by the fossil record been driven by fluctuations in environmental opportunity, by biotic factors, or by changes in the types of phenotypic variants available for evolutionary change? Since the Modern Synthesis most evolutionary biologists have maintained that microevolutionary processes carrying on over sufficient time will generate macroevolutionary patterns, with no need for other pattern-generating mechanisms such as punctuated equilibrium or species selection. This view was challenged by paleontologists in the 1970s with proposals that the differential sorting and selection of species and clades, and the effects of biotic crises such as mass extinctions, were important extensions to traditional evolutionary theory. More recently those interested in macroevolution have debated the relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors in driving macroevolutionary patterns and have introduced comparative phylogenetic methods to analyze the rates of change in taxonomic diversity. Applying Peter Godfrey-Smith's distinction between distributional explanations and explanations focusing on the origin of variation, most macroevolutionary studies have provided distributional explanations of macroevolutionary patterns. Comparative studies of developmental evolution, however, have implicated the origin of variants as a driving macroevolution force. In particular, the repatterning of gene regulatory networks provides new insights into the origins of developmental novelties. This raises the question of whether macroevolution has been pulled by the generation of environmental opportunity, or pushed by the introduction of new morphologies. The contrast between distributional and origination scenarios has implications for understanding evolutionary novelty and innovation and how macroevolutionary process may have evolved over time.

Beyond the Big Five: Extinctions as Experiments in the History of Life

The past century has witnessed a number of significant breakthroughs in the study of extinction in the fossil record, from the discovery of a bolide impact as the probable cause of the end-Cretaceous (K/T) mass extinction to the designation of the “Big 5” mass extinction events. Here, I summarize the major themes that have emerged from the past thirty years of extinction research and highlight a number of promising directions for future research. These directions explore a central theme—the evolutionary consequences of extinction— and focus on three broad research areas: the effects of selectivity, the importance of recovery intervals, and the influence of spatial patterns. Examples of topics explored include the role that trait variation plays in survivorship, the comparative effects of extinctions of varying magnitudes on evolutionary patterns, the re-establishment of macroevolutionary patterns in the aftermath of extinction, and the extent to which spatial autocorrelation affects extinction patterns. These topics can be approached by viewing extinctions as repeated natural experiments in the history of life and developing hypotheses to explicitly test across multiple events. Exploring the effects of extinction also requires an interdisciplinary approach, applying evolutionary, ecological, geochronological, geochemical, tectonic, and paleoclimatic tools to both extinction and recovery intervals.

Phylogenetic Clustering of Origination and Extinction across the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction

Mass extinctions can have dramatic effects on the trajectory of life, but in some cases the effects can be relatively small even when extinction rates are high. For example, the Late Ordovician mass extinction is the second most severe in terms of the proportion of genera eliminated, yet is noted for the lack of ecological consequences and shifts in clade dominance. By comparison, the end-Cretaceous mass extinction was less severe but eliminated several major clades while some rare surviving clades diversified in the Paleogene. This disconnect may be better understood by incorporating the phylogenetic relatedness of taxa into studies of mass extinctions, as the factors driving extinction and recovery are thought to be phylogenetically conserved and should therefore promote both origination and extinction of closely related taxa. Here, we test whether there was phylogenetic selectivity in extinction and origination using brachiopod genera from the Middle Ordovician through the Devonian. Using an index of taxonomic clustering (R_CL) as a proxy for phylogenetic clustering, we find that A) both extinctions and originations shift from taxonomically random or weakly clustered within families in the Ordovician to strongly clustered in the Silurian and Devonian, beginning with the recovery following the Late Ordovician mass extinction, and B) the Late Ordovician mass extinction was itself only weakly clustered. Both results stand in stark contrast to Cretaceous-Cenozoic bivalves, which showed significant levels of taxonomic clustering of extinctions in the Cretaceous, including strong clustering in the mass extinction, but taxonomically random extinctions in the Cenozoic. The contrasting patterns between the Late Ordovician and end-Cretaceous events suggest a complex relationship between the phylogenetic selectivity of mass extinctions and the long-term phylogenetic signal in origination and extinction patterns.

Marine extinction risk shaped by trait-environment interactions over 500 million years

Perhaps the most pressing issue in predicting biotic responses to present and future global change is understanding how environmental factors shape the relationship between ecological traits and extinction risk. The fossil record provides millions of years of insight into how extinction selectivity (i.e., differential extinction risk) is shaped by interactions between ecological traits and environmental conditions. Numerous paleontological studies have examined trait-based extinction selectivity; however, the extent to which these patterns are shaped by environmental conditions is poorly understood due to a lack of quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies on fossil marine bivalves and gastropods that span 458 million years to uncover how global environmental and geochemical changes covary with trait-based extinction selectivity. We focused on geographic range size and life habit (i.e., infaunal vs. epifaunal), two of the most important and commonly examined predictors of extinction selectivity. We used geochemical proxies related to global climate, as well as indicators of ocean acidification, to infer average global environmental conditions. Life-habit selectivity is weakly dependent on environmental conditions, with infaunal species relatively buffered from extinction during warmer climate states. In contrast, the odds of taxa with broad geographic ranges surviving an extinction (>2500 km for genera, >500 km for species) are on average three times greater than narrow-ranging taxa (estimate of odds ratio: 2.8, 95% confidence interval = 2.3-3.5), regardless of the prevailing global environmental conditions. The environmental independence of geographic range size extinction selectivity emphasizes the critical role of geographic range size in setting conservation priorities.

Is regional species diversity bounded or unbounded?

Two conflicting hypotheses have been proposed to explain large-scale species diversity patterns and dynamics. The unbounded hypothesis proposes that regional diversity depends only on time and diversification rate and increases without limit. The bounded hypothesis proposes that ecological constraints place upper limits on regional diversity and that diversity is usually close to its limit. Recent evidence from the fossil record, phylogenetic analysis, biogeography, and phenotypic disparity during lineage diversification suggests that diversity is constrained by ecological processes but that it is rarely asymptotic. Niche space is often unfilled or can be more finely subdivided and still permit coexistence, and new niche space is often created before ecological limits are reached. Damped increases in diversity over time are the prevalent pattern, suggesting the need for a new 'damped increase hypothesis'. The damped increase hypothesis predicts that diversity generally increases through time but that its rate of increase is often slowed by ecological constraints. However, slowing due to niche limitation must be distinguished from other possible mechanisms creating similar patterns. These include sampling artifacts, the inability to detect extinctions or declines in clade diversity with some methods, the distorting effects of correlated speciation-extinction dynamics, the likelihood that opportunities for allopatric speciation will vary in space and time, and the role of undetected natural enemies in reducing host ranges and thus slowing speciation rates. The taxonomic scope of regional diversity studies must be broadened to include all ecologically similar species so that ecological constraints may be accurately inferred. The damped increase hypothesis suggests that information on evolutionary processes such as time-for-speciation and intrinsic diversification rates as well as ecological factors will be required to explain why regional diversity varies among times, places and taxa.

Galactic punctuated equilibrium: how to undermine Carter's anthropic argument in astrobiology

A new strategy by which to defeat Carter's "anthropic" argument against extraterrestrial life and intelligence is presented. Our approach is based on relaxing hidden uniformitarian assumptions and considering instead a dynamical succession of evolutionary regimes governed by both global (Galaxy-wide) and local (planet- or planetary system-limited) regulation mechanisms. Notably, our increased understanding of the nature of supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and strong coupling between the Solar System and the Galaxy, and the theories of "punctuated equilibria" and "macroevolutionary regimes" are in full accordance with the regulation-mechanism picture. The application of this particular strategy highlights the limits of application of Carter's argument and indicates that, in the real universe, its applicability conditions are not satisfied. We conclude that drawing far-reaching conclusions about the scarcity of extraterrestrial intelligence and the prospects of our efforts to detect it on the basis of this argument is unwarranted.

Clade age and not diversification rate explains species richness among animal taxa

Animal taxa show remarkable variability in species richness across phylogenetic groups. Most explanations for this disparity postulate that taxa with more species have phenotypes or ecologies that cause higher diversification rates (i.e., higher speciation rates or lower extinction rates). Here we show that clade longevity, and not diversification rate, has primarily shaped patterns of species richness across major animal clades: more diverse taxa are older and thus have had more time to accumulate species. Diversification rates calculated from 163 species-level molecular phylogenies were highly consistent within and among three major animal phyla (Arthropoda, Chordata, Mollusca) and did not correlate with species richness. Clades with higher estimated diversification rates were younger, but species numbers increased with increasing clade age. A fossil-based data set also revealed a strong, positive relationship between total extant species richness and crown group age across the orders of insects and vertebrates. These findings do not negate the importance of ecology or phenotype in influencing diversification rates, but they do show that clade longevity is the dominant signal in major animal biodiversity patterns. Thus, some key innovations may have acted through fostering clade longevity and not by heightening diversification rate.

EVOLUTIONARY DIVERSIFICATION AND THE ORIGIN OF THE DIVERSITY–ENVIRONMENT RELATIONSHIP

Global patterns in species richness have resisted explanation since they first caught the attention of ecologists in the 1960s. The failure of ecology to fully integrate the diversity issue into its core of accepted wisdom derives from an inappropriate concept of community and the rejection of history and region as formative contexts for ecological systems. Traditionally, ecologists have held that the pervasive relationship between species richness and conditions of the physical environment reflects the influence of environment on the ability of populations to coexist locally. However, many ecologists now recognize that this relationship can also develop historically from the evolutionary diversification of lineages within and between ecological zones. To assess the relative roles of local ecological constraint vs. regional and historical unfolding of diversity-environment relationships, we must abandon localized concepts of the community and adopt historical (particularly phylogenetic) and geographic methods to evaluate the evolution of diversity within large regions and its influence on diversity at local scales. This integrated perspective opens new research directions for ecologists to explore the formation of species, adaptive diversification, and the adjustment of ecological distributions of species on regional scales.

A test of Simpson's "rule of the survival of the relatively unspecialized" using fossil crinoids

Temporally long-ranging (=long-lived) taxa have been postulated to have unusual properties that aid their prolonged geologic survival. Past studies have examined dispersal capabilities, geographic ranges, and single-character morphological adaptations as factors that may contribute to geologic longevity. Here, I test whether long-lived fossil crinoid taxa are morphologically unusual using a whole suite of morphological characters. I define long-lived taxa in several explicit, comparative ways. I find that long-lived crinoid genera and families are often less distant from mean morphologies of their crinoid orders than their shorter-lived relatives; that is, they are relatively less specialized. I also compare the morphology of crinoid genera relative to basal members of their respective orders; mean morphological distances of long-lived genera from basal morphologies are seldom distinct from those of their shorter-lived relatives. I observe that long-lived crinoid genera are less distant from mean morphologies of their temporal cohorts compared with shorter-lived genera but not in a statistically significant manner. I conclude that long-lived crinoids are relatively unspecialized, in the sense that they are relatively closer to mean morphologies of their taxonomic groups.

Lessons from the past: evolutionary impacts of mass extinctions

Mass extinctions have played many evolutionary roles, involving differential survivorship or selectivity of taxa and traits, the disruption or preservation of evolutionary trends and ecosystem organization, and the promotion of taxonomic and morphological diversifications-often along unexpected trajectories-after the destruction or marginalization of once-dominant clades. The fossil record suggests that survivorship during mass extinctions is not strictly random, but it often fails to coincide with factors promoting survival during times of low extinction intensity. Although of very serious concern, present-day extinctions have not yet achieved the intensities seen in the Big Five mass extinctions of the geologic past, which each removed > or =50% of the subset of relatively abundant marine invertebrate genera. The best comparisons for predictive purposes therefore will involve factors such as differential extinction intensities among regions, clades, and functional groups, rules governing postextinction biotic interchanges and evolutionary dynamics, and analyses of the factors that cause taxa and evolutionary trends to continue unabated, to suffer setbacks but resume along the same trajectory, to survive only to fall into a marginal role or disappear ("dead clade walking"), or to undergo a burst of diversification. These issues need to be addressed in a spatially explicit framework, because the fossil record suggests regional differences in postextinction diversification dynamics and biotic interchanges. Postextinction diversifications lag far behind the initial taxonomic and morphological impoverishment and homogenization; they do not simply reoccupy vacated adaptive peaks, but explore opportunities as opened and constrained by intrinsic biotic factors and the ecological and evolutionary context of the radiation.

Macroevolution is more than repeated rounds of microevolution

Arguments over macroevolution versus microevolution have waxed and waned through most of the twentieth century. Initially, paleontologists and other evolutionary biologists advanced a variety of non-Darwinian evolutionary processes as explanations for patterns found in the fossil record, emphasizing macroevolution as a source of morphologic novelty. Later, paleontologists, from Simpson to Gould, Stanley, and others, accepted the primacy of natural selection but argued that rapid speciation produced a discontinuity between micro- and macroevolution. This second phase emphasizes the sorting of innovations between species. Other discontinuities appear in the persistence of trends (differential success of species within clades), including species sorting, in the differential success between clades and in the origination and establishment of evolutionary novelties. These discontinuities impose a hierarchical structure to evolution and discredit any smooth extrapolation from allelic substitution to large-scale evolutionary patterns. Recent developments in comparative developmental biology suggest a need to reconsider the possibility that some macroevolutionary discontinuites may be associated with the origination of evolutionary innovation. The attractiveness of macroevolution reflects the exhaustive documentation of large-scale patterns which reveal a richness to evolution unexplained by microevolution. If the goal of evolutionary biology is to understand the history of life, rather than simply document experimental analysis of evolution, studies from paleontology, phylogenetics, developmental biology, and other fields demand the deeper view provided by macroevolution.

Competitive displacement among post-Paleozoic cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans

Encrusting bryozoans provide one of the few systems in the fossil record in which ecological competition can be observed directly at local scales. The macroevolutionary history of diversity of cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans is consistent with a coupled-logistic model of clade displacement predicated on species within clades interacting competitively. The model matches observed diversity history if the model is perturbed by a mass extinction with a position and magnitude analogous to the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary event, Although it is difficult to measure all parameters in the model from fossil data, critical factors are intrinsic rates of extinction, which can be measured. Cyclostomes maintained a rather low rate of extinction, and the model solutions predict that they would lose diversity only slowly as competitively superior species of cheilostomes diversified into their environment. Thus, the microecological record of preserved competitive interactions between cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans and the macroevolutionary record of global diversity are consistent in regard to competition as a significant influence on diversity histories of post-Paleozoic bryozoans.

The evolution of diversity in ancient ecosystems: a review

On a perfect planet, such as might be acceptable to a physicist, one might predict that from its origin the diversity of life would grow exponentially until the carrying capacity, however defined, was reached. The fossil record of the Earth, however, tells a very different story. One of the most striking aspects of this record is the apparent evolutionary longueur, marked by the Precambrian record of prokaryotes and primitive eukaryotes, although our estimates of microbial diversity may be seriously incomplete. Subsequently there were various dramatic increases in diversity, including the Cambrian ‘explosion’ and the radiation of Palaeozoic–style faunas in the Ordovician. The causes of these events are far from resolved. It has also long been appreciated that the history of diversity has been punctuated by important extinctions. The subtleties and nuances of extinction as well as the survival of particular clades have to date, however, received rather too little attention, and there is still a tendency towards blanket assertions rather than a dissection of these extraordinary events. In addition, some but perhaps not all mass extinctions are characterized by long lag–times of recovery, which may reflect the slowing waning of extrinsic forcing factors or alternatively the incoherence associated with biological reassembly of stable ecosystems. The intervening periods between the identified mass extinctions may be less stable and benign than popularly thought, and in particular the frequency of extraterrestrial impacts leads to predictions of recurrent disturbance on timescales significantly shorter than the intervals separating the largest extinction events. Even at times of quietude it is far from clear whether biological communities enjoy stability and interlocked stasis or are dynamically reconstituted at regular intervals. Finally, can we yet rely on the present depictions of the rise and falls in the levels of ancient diversity? Existing data is almost entirely based on Linnean taxa, and the application of phylogenetic systematics to this problem is still in its infancy. Not only that, but even more intriguingly the pronounced divergence in estimates of origination times of groups as diverse as angiosperms, diatoms and mammals in terms of the fossil record as against molecular data point to the possibilities of protracted intervals of geological time with a cryptic diversity. If this is correct, and there are alternative explanations, then some of the mystery of adaptive radiations may be dispelled, in as much as the assembly of key features in the stem groups could be placed in a gradualistic framework of local adaptive response punctuated by intervals of opportunity.

Extinctions in the fossil record

Direct comparison of ancient extinctions to the present-day situation is difficult, because quantitative palaeontological data come primarily from marine invertebrates, fossilized species are usually drawn from the more abundant and widespread taxa, and time resolution is rarely better than 103— 104 years. A growing array of techniques permits quantitative error estimates on some of these potential biases, and allows calculation of species extinction intensities from genus-level data, which are more robust. Extensive as today’s species losses probably are, they have yet to equal any of the Big Five mass extinctions. Background extinction patterns are potential sources of insight regarding present-day biotic losses; over 90% of past species extinction has occurred at times other than the Big Five mass extinctions. Mean durations of fossil species vary by more than an order of magnitude even within clades, rendering uninformative any global average for background extinction. Taxon-specific variation is evidently related to intrinsic biotic factors such as geographic range and population size. Approaches to extinction analysis and prediction based on morphological variety or biodisparity should be explored as an adjunct or alternative to taxon inventories or phylogenetic metrics. Rebounds from mass extinctions are geologically rapid but ecologically slow; biodiversity communities typically requires 5-10 million years.

A model of onshore-offshore change in faunal diversity

Onshore-offshore patterns of faunal change occurred at many taxonomic scales during the Paleozoic Era, ranging from replacement of the Cambrian evolutionary fauna by the Paleozoic fauna to the environmental expansion of many orders and classes. A simple mathematical model is constructed to investigate such change. The environmental gradient across the marine shelf-slope is treated as a linear array of discrete habitats, each of which holds a set number of species, as observed in the fossil record. During any interval of time, some portion of the species in each habitat becomes extinct by background processes, with rates of extinction varying among both clades and habitats, as also observed in the record. After extinction, species are replaced from within the habitat and from immediately adjacent habitats, with proportions dependent on surviving species. This model leads to the prediction that extinction-resistant clades will always diversify at the expense of extinction-prone clades. But if extinction intensity is highest in nearshore habitats, extinction-resistant clades will expand preferentially in the onshore direction, build up diversity there, and then diversify outward toward the offshore. Thus, onshore-offshore patterns of diversification may be the expectation for faunal change quite independently of whether or not clades originate onshore. When the model is parameterized for Paleozoic trilobites and brachiopods, numerical solutions exhibit both a pattern of faunal change and a time span for diversification similar to that seen in the fossil record. They also generate structure similar to that seen in global diversification, including logistic patterns of growth, declining origination but constant extinction within clades through time, and declining overall extinction across clades through time.