Mass extinctions among tetrapods and the quality of the fossil record

Testing extinction events and temporal shifts in diversification and fossilization rates through the skyline Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) model: The example of some mid-Permian synapsid extinctions

In the last decade, the Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) process has yielded interesting clues about the evolution of biodiversity through time. To facilitate such studies, we extend our method to compute the probability density of phylogenetic trees of extant and extinct taxa in which the only temporal information is provided by the fossil ages (i.e. without the divergence times) in order to deal with the piecewise constant FBD process, known as the "skyline FBD", which allows rates to change between pre-defined time intervals, as well as modelling extinction events at the bounds of these intervals. We develop approaches based on this method to assess hypotheses about the diversification process and to answer questions such as "Does a mass extinction occur at this time?" or "Is there a change in the fossilization rate between two given periods?". Our software can also yield Bayesian and maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of the skyline FBD model under various constraints. These approaches are applied to a simulated dataset in order to test their ability to answer the questions above. Finally, we study an updated dataset of Permo-Carboniferous synapsids to get additional insights into the dynamics of biodiversity change in three clades (Ophiacodontidae, Edaphosauridae and Sphenacodontidae) in the Pennsylvanian (Late Carboniferous) and Cisuralian (Early Permian), and to assess support for end-Sakmarian (or Artinskian) and end-Cisuralian mass extinction events discussed in previous studies.

Disparification and extinction trade-offs shaped the evolution of Permian to Jurassic Odonata

Owing to their prevalence in nowadays terrestrial ecosystems, insects are a relevant group to assess the impact of mass extinctions on emerged land. However, limitations of the insect fossil record make it difficult to assess the impact of such events based on taxonomic diversity alone. Therefore, we documented trends in morphological diversity, i.e., disparity, using wings of Permian to Jurassic Odonata as model. Our results show a decreasing trend in disparity while species richness increased. Both the Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic transitions are revealed as important events, associated with strong morphospace restructuring due to selective extinction. In each case, a recovery was assured by the diversification of new forms compensating the loss of others. Early representatives of Odonata continuously evolved new shapes, a pattern contrasting with the classical assertion of a morphospace fulfilled early and followed by selective extinctions and specialization within it.

Distributions of extinction times from fossil ages and tree topologies: the example of mid-Permian synapsid extinctions

Given a phylogenetic tree that includes only extinct, or a mix of extinct and extant taxa, where at least some fossil data are available, we present a method to compute the distribution of the extinction time of a given set of taxa under the Fossilized-Birth-Death model. Our approach differs from the previous ones in that it takes into account (i) the possibility that the taxa or the clade considered may diversify before going extinct and (ii) the whole phylogenetic tree to estimate extinction times, whilst previous methods do not consider the diversification process and deal with each branch independently. Because of this, our method can estimate extinction times of lineages represented by a single fossil, provided that they belong to a clade that includes other fossil occurrences. We assess and compare our new approach with a standard previous one using simulated data. Results show that our method provides more accurate confidence intervals. This new approach is applied to the study of the extinction time of three Permo-Carboniferous synapsid taxa (Ophiacodontidae, Edaphosauridae, and Sphenacodontidae) that are thought to have disappeared toward the end of the Cisuralian (early Permian), or possibly shortly thereafter. The timing of extinctions of these three taxa and of their component lineages supports the idea that the biological crisis in the late Kungurian/early Roadian consisted of a progressive decline in biodiversity throughout the Kungurian.

Dead clades walking are a pervasive macroevolutionary pattern

D. Jablonski [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99, 8139-8144 (2002)] coined the term "dead clades walking" (DCWs) to describe marine fossil orders that experience significant drops in genus richness during mass extinction events and never rediversify to previous levels. This phenomenon is generally interpreted as further evidence that the macroevolutionary consequences of mass extinctions can continue well past the formal boundary. It is unclear, however, exactly how long DCWs are expected to persist after extinction events and to what degree they impact broader trends in Phanerozoic biodiversity. Here we analyze the fossil occurrences of 134 skeletonized marine invertebrate orders in the Paleobiology Database (paleobiodb.org) using a Bayesian method to identify significant change points in genus richness. Our analysis identifies 70 orders that experience major diversity losses without recovery. Most of these taxa, however, do not fit the popular conception of DCWs as clades that narrowly survive a mass extinction event and linger for only a few stages before succumbing to extinction. The median postdrop duration of these DCW orders is long (>30 Myr), suggesting that previous studies may have underestimated the long-term taxonomic impact of mass extinction events. More importantly, many drops in diversity without recovery are not associated with mass extinction events and occur during background extinction stages. The prevalence of DCW orders throughout both mass and background extinction intervals and across phyla (>50% of all marine invertebrate orders) suggests that the DCW pattern is a major component of macroevolutionary turnover.

Anatomy, ontogeny, and evolution of the archosaurian respiratory system: A case study on Alligator mississippiensis and Struthio camelus

The avian lung is highly specialized and is both functionally and morphologically distinct from that of their closest extant relatives, the crocodilians. It is highly partitioned, with a unidirectionally ventilated and immobilized gas-exchanging lung, and functionally decoupled, compliant, poorly vascularized ventilatory air-sacs. To understand the evolutionary history of the archosaurian respiratory system, it is essential to determine which anatomical characteristics are shared between birds and crocodilians and the role these shared traits play in their respective respiratory biology. To begin to address this larger question, we examined the anatomy of the lung and bronchial tree of 10 American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) and 11 ostriches (Struthio camelus) across an ontogenetic series using traditional and micro-computed tomography (µCT), three-dimensional (3D) digital models, and morphometry. Intraspecific variation and left to right asymmetry were present in certain aspects of the bronchial tree of both taxa but was particularly evident in the cardiac (medial) region of the lungs of alligators and the caudal aspect of the bronchial tree in both species. The cross-sectional area of the primary bronchus at the level of the major secondary airways and cross-sectional area of ostia scaled either isometrically or negatively allometrically in alligators and isometrically or positively allometrically in ostriches with respect to body mass. Of 15 lung metrics, five were significantly different between the alligator and ostrich, suggesting that these aspects of the lung are more interspecifically plastic in archosaurs. One metric, the distances between the carina and each of the major secondary airways, had minimal intraspecific or ontogenetic variation in both alligators and ostriches, and thus may be a conserved trait in both taxa. In contrast to previous descriptions, the 3D digital models and CT scan data demonstrate that the pulmonary diverticula pneumatize the axial skeleton of the ostrich directly from the gas-exchanging pulmonary tissues instead of the air sacs. Global and specific comparisons between the bronchial topography of the alligator and ostrich reveal multiple possible homologies, suggesting that certain structural aspects of the bronchial tree are likely conserved across Archosauria, and may have been present in the ancestral archosaurian lung.

Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction

We present a quantitative test of end-Cretaceous extinction scenarios and how these would have affected dinosaur habitats. Combining climate and ecological modeling tools, we demonstrate a substantial detrimental effect on dinosaur habitats caused by an impact winter scenario triggered by the Chicxulub asteroid. We were not able to obtain such an extinction state with several modeling scenarios of Deccan volcanism. We further show that the concomitant prolonged eruption of the Deccan traps might have acted as an ameliorating agent, buffering the negative effects on climate and global ecosystems that the asteroid impact produced at the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary.

The Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, 66 Ma, included the demise of non-avian dinosaurs. Intense debate has focused on the relative roles of Deccan volcanism and the Chicxulub asteroid impact as kill mechanisms for this event. Here, we combine fossil-occurrence data with paleoclimate and habitat suitability models to evaluate dinosaur habitability in the wake of various asteroid impact and Deccan volcanism scenarios. Asteroid impact models generate a prolonged cold winter that suppresses potential global dinosaur habitats. Conversely, long-term forcing from Deccan volcanism (carbon dioxide [CO₂]-induced warming) leads to increased habitat suitability. Short-term (aerosol cooling) volcanism still allows equatorial habitability. These results support the asteroid impact as the main driver of the non-avian dinosaur extinction. By contrast, induced warming from volcanism mitigated the most extreme effects of asteroid impact, potentially reducing the extinction severity.

Parental Care, Destabilizing Selection, and the Evolution of Tetrapod Endothermy

Parental care has evolved convergently an extraordinary number of times among tetrapods that reproduce terrestrially, suggesting strong positive selection for this behavior in the terrestrial environment. This review speculates that destabilizing selection on parental care, and especially embryo incubation, drove the convergent evolution of many tetrapod traits, including endothermy.

Phanerozoic survivors: Actinopterygian evolution through the Permo-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction events

Actinopterygians (ray‐finned fishes) successfully passed through four of the big five mass extinction events of the Phanerozoic, but the effects of these crises on the group are poorly understood. Many researchers have assumed that the Permo‐Triassic mass extinction (PTME) and end‐Triassic extinction (ETE) had little impact on actinopterygians, despite devastating many other groups. Here, two morphometric techniques, geometric (body shape) and functional (jaw morphology), are used to assess the effects of these two extinction events on the group. The PTME elicits no significant shifts in functional disparity while body shape disparity increases. An expansion of body shape and functional disparity coincides with the neopterygian radiation and evolution of novel feeding adaptations in the Middle‐Late Triassic. Through the ETE, small decreases are seen in shape and functional disparity, but are unlikely to represent major changes brought about by the extinction event. In the Early Jurassic, further expansions into novel areas of ecospace indicative of durophagy occur, potentially linked to losses in the ETE. As no evidence is found for major perturbations in actinopterygian evolution through either extinction event, the group appears to have been immune to two major environmental crises that were disastrous to most other organisms.

The Future of Analytical Paleobiology

In the past few decades, we have come a long way in making paleobiology more rigorous. We have accumulated an impressive array of quantitative techniques – statistical and otherwise – and these are in use with the full range of paleobiological problems. Also striking is the way the added rigor of our science has spilled over into non-quantitative judgments and interpretations. No longer is the Just-So Story allowed to stand unchallenged. Rather, we respond to these bald assertions and ad hoc theories with: “Can you prove it?” or “Can this be tested?”

The evolution of fishes and corals on reefs: form, function and interdependence

Coral reefs are renowned for their spectacular biodiversity and the close links between fishes and corals. Despite extensive fossil records and common biogeographic histories, the evolution of these two key groups has rarely been considered together. We therefore examine recent advances in molecular phylogenetics and palaeoecology, and place the evolution of fishes and corals in a functional context. In critically reviewing the available fossil and phylogenetic evidence, we reveal a marked congruence in the evolution of the two groups. Despite one group consisting of swimming vertebrates and the other colonial symbiotic invertebrates, fishes and corals have remarkably similar evolutionary histories. In the Paleocene and Eocene [66-34 million years ago (Ma)] most modern fish and coral families were present, and both were represented by a wide range of functional morphotypes. However, there is little evidence of diversification at this time. By contrast, in the Oligocene and Miocene (34-5.3 Ma), both groups exhibited rapid lineage diversification. There is also evidence of increasing reef area, occupation of new habitats, increasing coral cover, and potentially, increasing fish abundance. Functionally, the Oligocene-Miocene is marked by the appearance of new fish and coral taxa associated with high-turnover fast-growth ecosystems and the colonization of reef flats. It is in this period that the functional characteristics of modern coral reefs were established. Most species, however, only arose in the last 5.3 million years (Myr; Plio-Pleistocene), with the average age of fish species being 5.3 Myr, and corals just 1.9 Myr. While these species are genetically distinct, phenotypic differences are often limited to variation in colour or minor morphological features. This suggests that the rapid increase in biodiversity during the last 5.3 Myr was not matched by changes in ecosystem function. For reef fishes, colour appears to be central to recent diversification. However, the presence of pigment patterns in the Eocene suggests that colour may not have driven recent diversification. Furthermore, the lack of functional changes in fishes or corals over the last 5 Myr raises questions over the role and importance of biodiversity in shaping the future of coral reefs.

The Evolution of Unidirectional Pulmonary Airflow

Conventional wisdom holds that the avian respiratory system is unique because air flows in the same direction through most of the gas-exchange tubules during both phases of ventilation. However, recent studies showing that unidirectional airflow also exists in crocodilians and lizards raise questions about the true phylogenetic distribution of unidirectional airflow, the selective drivers of the trait, the date of origin, and the functional consequences of this phenomenon. These discoveries suggest unidirectional flow was present in the common diapsid ancestor and are inconsistent with the traditional paradigm that unidirectional flow is an adaptation for supporting high rates of gas exchange. Instead, these discoveries suggest it may serve functions such as decreasing the work of breathing, decreasing evaporative respiratory water loss, reducing rates of heat loss, and facilitating crypsis. The divergence in the design of the respiratory system between unidirectionally ventilated lungs and tidally ventilated lungs, such as those found in mammals, is very old, with a minimum date for the divergence in the Permian Period. From this foundation, the avian and mammalian lineages evolved very different respiratory systems. I suggest the difference in design is due to the same selective pressure, expanded aerobic capacity, acting under different environmental conditions. High levels of atmospheric oxygen of the Permian Period relaxed selection for a thin blood-gas barrier and may have resulted in the homogeneous, broncho-alveolar design, whereas the reduced oxygen of the Mesozoic selected for a heterogeneous lung with an extremely thin blood-gas barrier. These differences in lung design may explain the puzzling pattern of ecomorphological diversification of Mesozoic mammals: all were small animals that did not occupy niches requiring a great aerobic capacity. The broncho-alveolar lung and the hypoxia of the Mesozoic may have restricted these mammals from exploiting niches of large body size, where cursorial locomotion can be advantageous, as well as other niches requiring great aerobic capacities, such as those using flapping flight. Furthermore, hypoxia may have exerted positive selection for a parasagittal posture, the diaphragm, and reduced erythrocyte size, innovations that enabled increased rates of ventilation and more rapid rates of diffusion in the lung.

Permian-Triassic Osteichthyes (bony fishes): diversity dynamics and body size evolution

The Permian and Triassic were key time intervals in the history of life on Earth. Both periods are marked by a series of biotic crises including the most catastrophic of such events, the end-Permian mass extinction, which eventually led to a major turnover from typical Palaeozoic faunas and floras to those that are emblematic for the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Here we review patterns in Permian-Triassic bony fishes, a group whose evolutionary dynamics are understudied. Based on data from primary literature, we analyse changes in their taxonomic diversity and body size (as a proxy for trophic position) and explore their response to Permian-Triassic events. Diversity and body size are investigated separately for different groups of Osteichthyes (Dipnoi, Actinistia, 'Palaeopterygii', 'Subholostei', Holostei, Teleosteomorpha), within the marine and freshwater realms and on a global scale (total diversity) as well as across palaeolatitudinal belts. Diversity is also measured for different palaeogeographical provinces. Our results suggest a general trend from low osteichthyan diversity in the Permian to higher levels in the Triassic. Diversity dynamics in the Permian are marked by a decline in freshwater taxa during the Cisuralian. An extinction event during the end-Guadalupian crisis is not evident from our data, but 'palaeopterygians' experienced a significant body size increase across the Guadalupian-Lopingian boundary and these fishes upheld their position as large, top predators from the Late Permian to the Late Triassic. Elevated turnover rates are documented at the Permian-Triassic boundary, and two distinct diversification events are noted in the wake of this biotic crisis, a first one during the Early Triassic (dipnoans, actinistians, 'palaeopterygians', 'subholosteans') and a second one during the Middle Triassic ('subholosteans', neopterygians). The origination of new, small taxa predominantly among these groups during the Middle Triassic event caused a significant reduction in osteichthyan body size. Neopterygii, the clade that encompasses the vast majority of extant fishes, underwent another diversification phase in the Late Triassic. The Triassic radiation of Osteichthyes, predominantly of Actinopterygii, which only occurred after severe extinctions among Chondrichthyes during the Middle-Late Permian, resulted in a profound change within global fish communities, from chondrichthyan-rich faunas of the Permo-Carboniferous to typical Mesozoic and Cenozoic associations dominated by actinopterygians. This turnover was not sudden but followed a stepwise pattern, with leaps during extinction events.

Global taxonomic diversity of anomodonts (tetrapoda, therapsida) and the terrestrial rock record across the Permian-Triassic boundary

The end-Permian biotic crisis (~252.5 Ma) represents the most severe extinction event in Earth's history. This paper investigates diversity patterns in Anomodontia, an extinct group of therapsid synapsids ('mammal-like reptiles'), through time and in particular across this event. As herbivores and the dominant terrestrial tetrapods of their time, anomodonts play a central role in assessing the impact of the end-Permian extinction on terrestrial ecosystems. Taxonomic diversity analysis reveals that anomodonts experienced three distinct phases of diversification interrupted by the same number of extinctions, i.e. an end-Guadalupian, an end-Permian, and a mid-Triassic extinction. A positive correlation between the number of taxa and the number of formations per time interval shows that anomodont diversity is biased by the Permian-Triassic terrestrial rock record. Normalized diversity curves indicate that anomodont richness continuously declines from the Middle Permian to the Late Triassic, but also reveals all three extinction events. Taxonomic rates (origination and extinction) indicate that the end-Guadalupian and end-Permian extinctions were driven by increased rates of extinction as well as low origination rates. However, this pattern is not evident at the final decline of anomodont diversity during the Middle Triassic. Therefore, it remains unclear whether the Middle Triassic extinction represents a gradual or abrupt event that is unique to anomodonts or more common among terrestrial tetrapods. The end-Permian extinction represents the most distinct event in terms of decline in anomodont richness and turnover rates.

Recovery from the most profound mass extinction of all time

The end-Permian mass extinction, 251 million years (Myr) ago, was the most devastating ecological event of all time, and it was exacerbated by two earlier events at the beginning and end of the Guadalupian, 270 and 260 Myr ago. Ecosystems were destroyed worldwide, communities were restructured and organisms were left struggling to recover. Disaster taxa, such as Lystrosaurus, insinuated themselves into almost every corner of the sparsely populated landscape in the earliest Triassic, and a quick taxonomic recovery apparently occurred on a global scale. However, close study of ecosystem evolution shows that true ecological recovery was slower. After the end-Guadalupian event, faunas began rebuilding complex trophic structures and refilling guilds, but were hit again by the end-Permian event. Taxonomic diversity at the alpha (community) level did not recover to pre-extinction levels; it reached only a low plateau after each pulse and continued low into the Late Triassic. Our data showed that though there was an initial rise in cosmopolitanism after the extinction pulses, large drops subsequently occurred and, counter-intuitively, a surprisingly low level of cosmopolitanism was sustained through the Early and Middle Triassic.

Global patterns of diversification in the history of modern amphibians

The fossil record of modern amphibians (frogs, salamanders, and caecilians) provides no evidence for major extinction or radiation episodes throughout most of the Mesozoic and early Tertiary. However, long-term gradual diversification is difficult to reconcile with the sensitivity of present-day amphibian faunas to rapid ecological changes and the incidence of similar environmental perturbations in the past that have been associated with high turnover rates in other land vertebrates. To provide a comprehensive overview of the history of amphibian diversification, we constructed a phylogenetic timetree based on a multigene data set of 3.75 kb for 171 species. Our analyses reveal several episodes of accelerated amphibian diversification, which do not fit models of gradual lineage accumulation. Global turning points in the phylogenetic and ecological diversification occurred after the end-Permian mass extinction and in the late Cretaceous. Fluctuations in amphibian diversification show strong temporal correlation with turnover rates in amniotes and the rise of angiosperm-dominated forests. Approximately 86% of modern frog species and >81% of salamander species descended from only five ancestral lineages that produced major radiations in the late Cretaceous and early Tertiary. This proportionally late accumulation of extant lineage diversity contrasts with the long evolutionary history of amphibians but is in line with the Tertiary increase in fossil abundance toward the present.

Extinctions in the fossil record

Direct comparison of ancient extinctions to the present-day situation is difficult, because quantitative palaeontological data come primarily from marine invertebrates, fossilized species are usually drawn from the more abundant and widespread taxa, and time resolution is rarely better than 103— 104 years. A growing array of techniques permits quantitative error estimates on some of these potential biases, and allows calculation of species extinction intensities from genus-level data, which are more robust. Extensive as today’s species losses probably are, they have yet to equal any of the Big Five mass extinctions. Background extinction patterns are potential sources of insight regarding present-day biotic losses; over 90% of past species extinction has occurred at times other than the Big Five mass extinctions. Mean durations of fossil species vary by more than an order of magnitude even within clades, rendering uninformative any global average for background extinction. Taxon-specific variation is evidently related to intrinsic biotic factors such as geographic range and population size. Approaches to extinction analysis and prediction based on morphological variety or biodisparity should be explored as an adjunct or alternative to taxon inventories or phylogenetic metrics. Rebounds from mass extinctions are geologically rapid but ecologically slow; biodiversity communities typically requires 5-10 million years.