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Tonelli A, Caceres-Escobar H, Blagrove MSC, Wardeh M, Di Marco M. Identifying life-history patterns along the fast-slow continuum of mammalian viral carriers. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2024; 11:231512. [PMID: 39050720 PMCID: PMC11265862 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.231512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2024] [Indexed: 07/27/2024]
Abstract
Life-history traits have been identified as major indicators of mammals' susceptibility and exposure to viruses due to evolutionary constraints that link life-history speed with species' ecology and immunity. Nonetheless, it is unclear where along the fast-slow continuum of mammalian life-history lies the greatest diversity of host species. Consequently, life-history patterns that govern host-virus associations remain largely unknown. Here we analyse the virome of 1350 wild mammals and detect the characteristics that drive species' compatibility with different groups of viruses. We highlight that mammals with larger body size and either very rapid or very slow life histories are more likely to carry different groups of viruses, particularly zoonotic ones. While some common life-history patterns emerge across carriers, eco-evolutionary characteristics of viral groups appear to determine association with certain carrier species. Our findings underline the importance of incorporating both mammals' life-history information and viruses' ecological diversity into surveillance strategies to identify potential zoonotic carriers in wildlife.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Tonelli
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies ‘Charles Darwin’, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Hernan Caceres-Escobar
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies ‘Charles Darwin’, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Agronomía, campus Providencia, Universidad de las Américas, Santiago, Chile
| | - Marcus S. C. Blagrove
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Maya Wardeh
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
- Department of Computer Science, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies ‘Charles Darwin’, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
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2
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Clancey E, Nuismer S, Seifert S. Using serosurveys to optimize surveillance for zoonotic pathogens. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2024:2024.02.22.581274. [PMID: 38562792 PMCID: PMC10983876 DOI: 10.1101/2024.02.22.581274] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
Zoonotic pathogens pose a significant risk to human health, with spillover into human populations contributing to chronic disease, sporadic epidemics, and occasional pandemics. Despite the widely recognized burden of zoonotic spillover, our ability to identify which animal populations serve as primary reservoirs for these pathogens remains incomplete. This challenge is compounded when prevalence reaches detectable levels only at specific times of year. In these cases, statistical models designed to predict the timing of peak prevalence could guide field sampling for active infections. Here we develop a general model that leverages routinely collected serosurveillance data to optimize sampling for elusive pathogens. Using simulated data sets we show that our methodology reliably identifies times when pathogen prevalence is expected to peak. We then apply our method to two putative Ebolavirus reservoirs, straw-colored fruit bats (Eidolon helvum) and hammer-headed bats (Hypsignathus monstrosus) to predict when these species should be sampled to maximize the probability of detecting active infections. In addition to guiding future sampling of these species, our method yields predictions for the times of year that are most likely to produce future spillover events. The generality and simplicity of our methodology make it broadly applicable to a wide range of putative reservoir species where seasonal patterns of birth lead to predictable, but potentially short-lived, pulses of pathogen prevalence.
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Affiliation(s)
- E. Clancey
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164 USA
| | - S.L. Nuismer
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844 USA
| | - S.N. Seifert
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164 USA
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3
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Weber N, Nagy M, Markotter W, Schaer J, Puechmaille SJ, Sutton J, Dávalos LM, Dusabe MC, Ejotre I, Fenton MB, Knörnschild M, López-Baucells A, Medellin RA, Metz M, Mubareka S, Nsengimana O, O'Mara MT, Racey PA, Tuttle M, Twizeyimana I, Vicente-Santos A, Tschapka M, Voigt CC, Wikelski M, Dechmann DK, Reeder DM. Robust evidence for bats as reservoir hosts is lacking in most African virus studies: a review and call to optimize sampling and conserve bats. Biol Lett 2023; 19:20230358. [PMID: 37964576 PMCID: PMC10646460 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2023.0358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 10/25/2023] [Indexed: 11/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Africa experiences frequent emerging disease outbreaks among humans, with bats often proposed as zoonotic pathogen hosts. We comprehensively reviewed virus-bat findings from papers published between 1978 and 2020 to evaluate the evidence that African bats are reservoir and/or bridging hosts for viruses that cause human disease. We present data from 162 papers (of 1322) with original findings on (1) numbers and species of bats sampled across bat families and the continent, (2) how bats were selected for study inclusion, (3) if bats were terminally sampled, (4) what types of ecological data, if any, were recorded and (5) which viruses were detected and with what methodology. We propose a scheme for evaluating presumed virus-host relationships by evidence type and quality, using the contrasting available evidence for Orthoebolavirus versus Orthomarburgvirus as an example. We review the wording in abstracts and discussions of all 162 papers, identifying key framing terms, how these refer to findings, and how they might contribute to people's beliefs about bats. We discuss the impact of scientific research communication on public perception and emphasize the need for strategies that minimize human-bat conflict and support bat conservation. Finally, we make recommendations for best practices that will improve virological study metadata.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie Weber
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Radolfzell, Germany
- University of Ulm, Institute of Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation Genomics, Ulm, Germany
| | - Martina Nagy
- Museum für Naturkunde, Leibniz-Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Berlin, Germany
| | - Wanda Markotter
- Centre for Viral Zoonoses, Department of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Juliane Schaer
- Museum für Naturkunde, Leibniz-Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Berlin, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
| | - Sébastien J. Puechmaille
- ISEM, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France
- Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | | | - Liliana M. Dávalos
- Department of Ecology and Evolution and Consortium for Inter-Disciplinary Environmental Research, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, USA
| | | | - Imran Ejotre
- Institute of Biology, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
- Muni University, Arua, Uganda
| | - M. Brock Fenton
- Department of Biology, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mirjam Knörnschild
- Museum für Naturkunde, Leibniz-Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Berlin, Germany
- Evolutionary Ethology, Institute for Biology, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Ancón, Panama
| | | | - Rodrigo A. Medellin
- Institute of Ecology, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | - Samira Mubareka
- Sunnybrook Research Institute and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - M. Teague O'Mara
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Radolfzell, Germany
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Ancón, Panama
- Bat Conservation International Austin, TX, USA
- Department of Biological Sciences, Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, LA, USA
| | - Paul A. Racey
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Merlin Tuttle
- Merlin Tuttle's Bat Conservation, Austin, TX USA
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, USA
| | | | - Amanda Vicente-Santos
- Graduate Program in Population Biology, Ecology and Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
| | - Marco Tschapka
- University of Ulm, Institute of Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation Genomics, Ulm, Germany
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Ancón, Panama
| | | | - Martin Wikelski
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Radolfzell, Germany
- Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Dina K.N. Dechmann
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Radolfzell, Germany
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Ancón, Panama
- Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
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4
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Sundaram M, Schmidt JP, Han BA, Drake JM, Stephens PR. Traits, phylogeny and host cell receptors predict Ebolavirus host status among African mammals. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010993. [PMID: 36542657 PMCID: PMC9815631 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010993] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2022] [Revised: 01/05/2023] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
We explore how animal host traits, phylogenetic identity and cell receptor sequences relate to infection status and mortality from ebolaviruses. We gathered exhaustive databases of mortality from Ebolavirus after exposure and infection status based on PCR and antibody tests. We performed ridge regressions predicting mortality and infection as a function of traits, phylogenetic eigenvectors and separately host receptor sequences. We found that mortality from Ebolavirus had a strong association to life history characteristics and phylogeny. In contrast, infection status related not just to life history and phylogeny, but also to fruit consumption which suggests that geographic overlap of frugivorous mammals can lead to spread of virus in the wild. Niemann Pick C1 (NPC1) receptor sequences predicted infection statuses of bats included in our study with very high accuracy, suggesting that characterizing NPC1 in additional species is a promising avenue for future work. We combine the predictions from our mortality and infection status models to differentiate between species that are infected and also die from Ebolavirus versus species that are infected but tolerate the virus (possible reservoirs of Ebolavirus). We therefore present the first comprehensive estimates of Ebolavirus reservoir statuses for all known terrestrial mammals in Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mekala Sundaram
- Department of Integrative Biology, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - John Paul Schmidt
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Barbara A. Han
- Cary Institute of Ecosystems Studies, Millbrook, New York, United States of America
| | - John M. Drake
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Patrick R. Stephens
- Department of Integrative Biology, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, United States of America
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5
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Albery GF, Becker DJ, Brierley L, Brook CE, Christofferson RC, Cohen LE, Dallas TA, Eskew EA, Fagre A, Farrell MJ, Glennon E, Guth S, Joseph MB, Mollentze N, Neely BA, Poisot T, Rasmussen AL, Ryan SJ, Seifert S, Sjodin AR, Sorrell EM, Carlson CJ. The science of the host-virus network. Nat Microbiol 2021; 6:1483-1492. [PMID: 34819645 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-021-00999-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2020] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
Better methods to predict and prevent the emergence of zoonotic viruses could support future efforts to reduce the risk of epidemics. We propose a network science framework for understanding and predicting human and animal susceptibility to viral infections. Related approaches have so far helped to identify basic biological rules that govern cross-species transmission and structure the global virome. We highlight ways to make modelling both accurate and actionable, and discuss the barriers that prevent researchers from translating viral ecology into public health policies that could prevent future pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gregory F Albery
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington DC, USA.
| | - Daniel J Becker
- Department of Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
| | - Liam Brierley
- Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Cara E Brook
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | | | - Lily E Cohen
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Tad A Dallas
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Evan A Eskew
- Department of Biology, Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, WA, USA
| | - Anna Fagre
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Maxwell J Farrell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Emma Glennon
- Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sarah Guth
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Maxwell B Joseph
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Nardus Mollentze
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.,MRC - University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK
| | - Benjamin A Neely
- National Institute of Standards and Technology, Charleston, SC, USA
| | - Timothée Poisot
- Québec Centre for Biodiversity Sciences, Montréal, Québec, Canada.,Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada
| | - Angela L Rasmussen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.,Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | - Sadie J Ryan
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.,Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.,School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Stephanie Seifert
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Anna R Sjodin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
| | - Erin M Sorrell
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA.,Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Colin J Carlson
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA. .,Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA.
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6
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Shivaprakash KN, Sen S, Paul S, Kiesecker JM, Bawa KS. Mammals, wildlife trade, and the next global pandemic. Curr Biol 2021; 31:3671-3677.e3. [PMID: 34237267 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2021.06.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2021] [Revised: 04/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/02/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Most new infectious diseases emerge when pathogens transfer from animals to humans.1,2 The suspected origin of the COVID pandemic in a wildlife wet market has resurfaced debates on the role of wildlife trade as a potential source of emerging zoonotic diseases.3-5 Yet there are no studies quantitatively assessing zoonotic disease risk associated with wildlife trade. Combining data on mammal species hosting zoonotic viruses and mammals known to be in current and future wildlife trade,6 we found that one-quarter (26.5%) of the mammals in wildlife trade harbor 75% of known zoonotic viruses, a level much higher than domesticated and non-traded mammals. The traded mammals also harbor distinct compositions of zoonotic viruses and different host reservoirs from non-traded and domesticated mammals. Furthermore, we highlight that primates, ungulates, carnivores, and bats represent significant zoonotic disease risks as they host 132 (58%) of 226 known zoonotic viruses in present wildlife trade, whereas species of bats, rodents, and marsupials represent significant zoonotic disease risks in future wildlife trade. Thus, the risk of carrying zoonotic diseases is not equal for all mammal species in wildlife trade. Overall, our findings strengthen the evidence that wildlife trade and zoonotic disease risks are strongly associated, and that mitigation measures should prioritize species with the highest risk of carrying zoonotic viruses. Curbing the sales of wildlife products and developing principles that support the sustainable and healthy trade of wildlife could be cost-effective investments given the potential risk and consequences of zoonotic outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Sandeep Sen
- Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Sriramapura, Jakkur Post, Bangalore, Karnataka 560064, India
| | - Seema Paul
- The Nature Conservancy Center, Lajpat Nagar III, New Delhi 110024, India
| | - Joseph M Kiesecker
- Global Lands Program, The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, CO 80524, USA
| | - Kamaljit S Bawa
- Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Sriramapura, Jakkur Post, Bangalore, Karnataka 560064, India; Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, 100 Morrissey Boulevard, Boston, MA 02125, USA
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7
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Albery GF, Becker DJ. Fast-lived Hosts and Zoonotic Risk. Trends Parasitol 2020; 37:117-129. [PMID: 33214097 DOI: 10.1016/j.pt.2020.10.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2020] [Revised: 10/25/2020] [Accepted: 10/26/2020] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
Because most emerging human pathogens originate in mammals, many studies aim to identify host traits that determine the risk of sourcing zoonotic outbreaks. Studies regularly assert that 'fast-lived' mammal species exhibiting greater fecundity and shorter lifespans tend to host more zoonoses; however, the causes of this association remain poorly understood and they cover a range of immune and nonimmune mechanisms. We discuss these drivers in the context of evolutionary ecology and wildlife-human interactions. Ultimately, differentiating these mechanisms will require linking interspecific variation in life history with immunity, pathogen diversity, transmissibility, and zoonotic risk, and critical data gaps currently limit our ability to do so. We highlight sampling and analytical frameworks to address this gap and to better inform zoonotic reservoir prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gregory F Albery
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
| | - Daniel J Becker
- Department of Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA.
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8
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Walsh MG, Hossain S. Population structure and diet generalism define a preliminary ecological profile of zoonotic virus hosts in the Western Ghats, India. Epidemics 2020; 33:100416. [PMID: 33161184 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100416] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2020] [Revised: 09/09/2020] [Accepted: 10/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The rainforests of the Western Ghats exhibit some of the highest biodiversity on the planet, and yet are undergoing rapid land use change due to the expansion of agriculture and other industries. As the landscape of the region is transformed, more people are coming into conflict with wildlife and becoming exposed to pathogens that previously circulated beyond the boundaries of human incursion. Despite an ecological knowledge imperative, this emerging landscape is ill-defined with respect to the ecology of zoonotic viruses and their mammalian wildlife hosts. Without a better understanding of the underlying infection ecology, the epidemiology of viral spillover will remain elusive and unsuited to the task of predicting and preventing outbreaks. The current investigation explored the association between mammalian zoonotic virus richness and species-level landscape, life-history, and dietary traits to describe an initial ecological profile of zoonotic virus hosts in the Western Ghats. Social group composition and dietary forage were both non-linearly associated with greater zoonotic viral richness among these species, whereby species active in smaller social groups, albeit in higher population densities, and exhibiting a tendency toward a generalist diet hosted more zoonotic viruses. While these findings provide no definitive ecological demarcation of zoonotic virus hosts or their contribution to viral maintenance or amplification, it is expected that this preliminary profile can help to develop targeted wildlife pathogen surveillance programs and to expand the current approach to epidemiological modelling of emerging zoonoses in the region, which typically do not account for the macroecological parameters of infection transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael G Walsh
- The University of Sydney, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia; The University of Sydney, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Westmead Institute for Medical Research, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia; Prasanna School of Public Health, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, Karnataka, India.
| | - Shah Hossain
- The University of Sydney, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia; The University of Sydney, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Westmead Institute for Medical Research, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia; Prasanna School of Public Health, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, Karnataka, India
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9
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Walsh MG, Mor SM, Maity H, Hossain S. A preliminary ecological profile of Kyasanur Forest disease virus hosts among the mammalian wildlife of the Western Ghats, India. Ticks Tick Borne Dis 2020; 11:101419. [PMID: 32241712 DOI: 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2020.101419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2019] [Revised: 02/27/2020] [Accepted: 03/20/2020] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
Abstract
Kyasanur Forest disease (KFD) virus is one of India's severe arboviruses capable of causing prolonged debilitating disease. It has been expanding beyond its historical endemic locus at an alarming rate over the last two decades. The natural nidus of this zoonosis is located in the monsoon rainforest of the Western Ghats, India, which is one of the world's most important biodiversity hotspots. Definitive reservoir hosts for KFD virus (KFDV) have yet to be delineated, and thus much of the infection ecology of this virus, and its consequent transmission dynamics, remains uncertain. Given its unique biogeographical context, identifying ecological parameters of KFDV relevant to the virus' epidemiology has been complex and challenging. The challenge has been exacerbated by diminished research efforts in wildlife surveillance over the last two decades, coinciding with the expansion of the range of KFD across the region. The current investigation sought to define a preliminary ecological profile of KFDV hosts based on their life history and feeding traits to aid in re-establishing targeted wildlife surveillance and to discern those ecological traits of wildlife hosts that may improve our understanding of KFD epidemiology. The importance of fast-living among KFDV hosts was of special interest with respect to the latter aim. We compared mammalian traits between host and non-host species using general additive models and phylogenetic generalised linear models. This study found that both body mass and forest forage were strongly associated with mammalian host infection status, but that reproductive life history traits were not. These findings will help in structuring ecologically based wildlife surveillance and field investigations, while also helping to parameterise novel epidemiological models of zoonotic infection risk that incorporate species functional traits in a region where biogeography, landscape ecology, and community ecology manifest extraordinary complexity, particularly under growing anthropogenic pressure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael G Walsh
- The University of Sydney, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Westmead, NSW, Australia; The University of Sydney, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Westmead Institute for Medical Research, Westmead, NSW, Australia; Prasanna School of Public Health, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, Karnataka, India.
| | - Siobhan M Mor
- University of Liverpool, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Institute of Infection and Global Health Liverpool, Merseyside, United Kingdom; The University of Sydney, Faculty of Science, School of Veterinary Science, Camperdown, NSW, Australia
| | - Hindol Maity
- Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, Karnataka, India
| | - Shah Hossain
- The University of Sydney, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Westmead, NSW, Australia; Prasanna School of Public Health, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, Karnataka, India
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10
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Becker DJ, Washburne AD, Faust CL, Pulliam JRC, Mordecai EA, Lloyd-Smith JO, Plowright RK. Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2019; 374:20190014. [PMID: 31401959 PMCID: PMC6711302 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/21/2019] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J. Becker
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Department of Biology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Alex D. Washburne
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
| | - Christina L. Faust
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Juliet R. C. Pulliam
- South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | | | - James O. Lloyd-Smith
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Raina K. Plowright
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
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11
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Becker DJ, Washburne AD, Faust CL, Mordecai EA, Plowright RK. The problem of scale in the prediction and management of pathogen spillover. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2019; 374:20190224. [PMID: 31401958 PMCID: PMC6711304 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/21/2019] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Disease emergence events, epidemics and pandemics all underscore the need to predict zoonotic pathogen spillover. Because cross-species transmission is inherently hierarchical, involving processes that occur at varying levels of biological organization, such predictive efforts can be complicated by the many scales and vastness of data potentially required for forecasting. A wide range of approaches are currently used to forecast spillover risk (e.g. macroecology, pathogen discovery, surveillance of human populations, among others), each of which is bound within particular phylogenetic, spatial and temporal scales of prediction. Here, we contextualize these diverse approaches within their forecasting goals and resulting scales of prediction to illustrate critical areas of conceptual and pragmatic overlap. Specifically, we focus on an ecological perspective to envision a research pipeline that connects these different scales of data and predictions from the aims of discovery to intervention. Pathogen discovery and predictions focused at the phylogenetic scale can first provide coarse and pattern-based guidance for which reservoirs, vectors and pathogens are likely to be involved in spillover, thereby narrowing surveillance targets and where such efforts should be conducted. Next, these predictions can be followed with ecologically driven spatio-temporal studies of reservoirs and vectors to quantify spatio-temporal fluctuations in infection and to mechanistically understand how pathogens circulate and are transmitted to humans. This approach can also help identify general regions and periods for which spillover is most likely. We illustrate this point by highlighting several case studies where long-term, ecologically focused studies (e.g. Lyme disease in the northeast USA, Hendra virus in eastern Australia, Plasmodium knowlesi in Southeast Asia) have facilitated predicting spillover in space and time and facilitated the design of possible intervention strategies. Such studies can in turn help narrow human surveillance efforts and help refine and improve future large-scale, phylogenetic predictions. We conclude by discussing how greater integration and exchange between data and predictions generated across these varying scales could ultimately help generate more actionable forecasts and interventions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J. Becker
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Department of Biology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Alex D. Washburne
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Christina L. Faust
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Raina K. Plowright
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
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