Climate-driven variation in biotic interactions provides a narrow and variable window of opportunity for an insect herbivore at its ecological margin

Phenological variation in biotic interactions shapes population dynamics and distribution in a range-shifting insect herbivore

Phenological responses to climate change vary across trophic levels. However, how trophic phenological synchrony determines species' distributions through its effects on population dynamics has rarely been addressed. Here, we show that phenological variation underlies population and geographical range dynamics in a range-shifting herbivore, and demonstrate its interplay with changing trophic interactions. Using a novel modelling approach, we identify drivers of variation in phenology and population growth (productivity) for populations of the brown argus butterfly (Aricia agestis) feeding on ancestral and novel host plants in the UK. We demonstrate host plant-specific links between phenology and productivity, highlighting their role in the consumer's range expansion. Critically, later butterfly phenology is associated with higher productivity in the annual second brood, especially on novel annual hosts where later activity improves synchrony with germinating plants. In turn, later phenology and higher second brood productivity are associated with more rapid range expansion, particularly in regions where only the novel hosts occur. Therefore, phenological asynchrony imposes limits on local population growth, influencing consumer resource selection, evolutionary responses and emergent range dynamics. How existing and future trophic phenological synchrony determine population dynamics will be critical for the ecological and evolutionary outcomes of climate change.

Rapid evolution of novel biotic interactions in the UK Brown Argus butterfly uses genomic variation from across its geographical range

Understanding the rate and extent to which populations can adapt to novel environments at their ecological margins is fundamental to predicting the persistence of biological communities during ongoing and rapid global change. Recent range expansion in response to climate change in the UK butterfly Aricia agestis is associated with the evolution of novel interactions with a larval food plant, and the loss of its ability to use an ancestral host species. Using ddRAD analysis of 61,210 variable SNPs from 261 females from throughout the UK range of this species, we identify genomic regions at multiple chromosomes that are associated with evolutionary responses, and their association with demographic history and ecological variation. Gene flow appears widespread throughout the range, despite the apparently fragmented nature of the habitats used by this species. Patterns of haplotype variation between selected and neutral genomic regions suggest that evolution associated with climate adaptation is polygenic, resulting from the independent spread of alleles throughout the established range of this species, rather than the colonization of pre-adapted genotypes from coastal populations. These data suggest that rapid responses to climate change do not depend on the availability of pre-adapted genotypes. Instead, the evolution of novel forms of biotic interaction in A. agestis has occurred during range expansion, through the assembly of novel genotypes from alleles from multiple localities.

An Integrative Perspective on the Mechanistic Basis of Context Dependent Species Interactions

It has long been known that the outcome of species interactions depends on the environmental context in which they occur. Climate change research has sparked a renewed interest in context dependent species interactions because rapidly changing abiotic environments will cause species interactions to occur in novel contexts and researchers must incorporate this in their predictions of species' responses to climate change. Here we argue that predicting how the environment will alter the outcome of species interactions requires an integrative biology approach that focuses on the traits, mechanisms, and processes that bridge disciplines such as physiology, biomechanics, ecology, and evolutionary biology. Specifically, we advocate for quantifying how species differ in their tolerance and performance to both environmental challenges independent of species interactions, and in interactions with other species as a function of the environment. Such an approach increases our understanding of the mechanisms underlying outcomes of species interactions across different environmental contexts. This understanding will in turn help determine how the outcome of species interactions affects the relative abundance and distribution of the interacting species in nature. A general theme that emerges from this perspective is that species are unable to maintain high levels of performance across different environmental contexts because of trade-offs between physiological tolerance to environmental challenges and performance in species interactions. Thus, an integrative biology paradigm that focuses on the trade-offs across environments, the physiological mechanisms involved, and how the ecological context impacts the outcome of species interactions provides a stronger framework to understand why species interactions are context dependent.

Introduction to the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments'

Understanding where, when and how species' ranges will be modified is both a fundamental problem and essential to predicting how spatio-temporal environmental changes in abiotic and biotic factors impact biodiversity. Notably, different species may respond disparately to similar environmental changes: some species may overcome an environmental change only with difficulty or not at all, while other species may readily overcome the same change. Ranges may contract, expand or move. The drivers and consequences of this variability in species' responses remain puzzling. Importantly, changes in a species' range creates feedbacks to the environmental conditions, populations and communities in its previous and current range, rendering population genetic, population dynamic and community processes inextricably linked. Understanding these links is critical in guiding biodiversity management and conservation efforts. This theme issue presents current thinking about the factors and mechanisms that limit and/or modify species' ranges. It also outlines different approaches to detect changes in species' distributions, and illustrates cases of range modifications in several taxa. Overall, this theme issue highlights the urgency of understanding species' ranges but shows that we are only just beginning to disentangle the processes involved. One way forward is to unite ecology with evolutionary biology and empirical with modelling approaches. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.