Effect of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir (Paxlovid) on Hospitalization among Adults with COVID-19: an EHR-based Target Trial Emulation from N3C

Pediatric Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Prescribing Patterns During the COVID-19 Pandemic

OBJECTIVES

This study seeks to identify demographic and clinical factors prompting clinician prescribing of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir to pediatric patients for management of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection.

METHODS

Patients aged 12 to 17 years with a COVID-19 infection and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescription during an outpatient clinical encounter within a PEDSnet-affiliated institution between January 2022 and August 2023 were identified using electronic health record data. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescription after adjusting for various factors.

RESULTS

A total of 20 959 patients aged 12 to 17 years were diagnosed with a COVID-19 infection on the basis of an electronic health record-documented positive polymerase chain reaction or antigen test or diagnosis during an outpatient clinical visit. Of these patients, 408 received a nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescription within 5 days of diagnosis. Higher odds of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment were associated with having chronic or complex chronic disease (chronic: odds ratio [OR] 2.50 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.83-3.38]; complex chronic: OR 2.21 [95% CI 1.58-3.08]). Among patients with chronic disease, each additional body system conferred 1.18 times higher odds of treatment (95% CI 1.10-1.26). Compared with non-Hispanic white patients, Hispanic patients (OR 0.61 [95% CI 0.44-0.83]) had lower odds of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with chronic conditions are more likely than those without to receive nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescriptions. However, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescribing to children with chronic conditions remains infrequent. Pediatric data concerning nirmatrelvir/ritonavir safety and effectiveness in preventing severe disease and hospitalization are critical optimizing clinical decision-making and use among children.

Effect of Paxlovid Treatment During Acute COVID-19 on Long COVID Onset: An EHR-Based Target Trial Emulation from the N3C and RECOVER Consortia

Preventing and treating post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), commonly known as Long COVID, has become a public health priority. In this study, we examined whether treatment with Paxlovid in the acute phase of COVID-19 helps prevent the onset of PASC. We used electronic health records from the National Covid Cohort Collaborative (N3C) to define a cohort of 426,352 patients who had COVID-19 since April 1, 2022, and were eligible for Paxlovid treatment due to risk for progression to severe COVID-19. We used the target trial emulation (TTE) framework to estimate the effect of Paxlovid treatment on PASC incidence. We estimated overall PASC incidence using a computable phenotype. We also measured the onset of novel cognitive, fatigue, and respiratory symptoms in the post-acute period. Paxlovid treatment did not have a significant effect on overall PASC incidence (relative risk [RR] = 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-1.01). However, it had a protective effect on cognitive (RR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.84-0.96) and fatigue (RR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.91-0.98) symptom clusters, which suggests that the etiology of these symptoms may be more closely related to viral load than that of respiratory symptoms.

Clinical Effectiveness of Ritonavir-Boosted Nirmatrelvir-A Literature Review

Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir is an oral treatment for mild to moderate COVID-19 cases with a high risk for a severe course of the disease. For this paper, a comprehensive literature review was performed, leading to a summary of currently available data on Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir's ability to reduce the risk of progressing to a severe disease state. Herein, the focus lies on publications that include comparisons between patients receiving Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir and a control group. The findings can be summarized as follows: Data from the time when the Delta-variant was dominant show that Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 88.9% for unvaccinated, non-hospitalized high-risk individuals. Data from the time when the Omicron variant was dominant found decreased relative risk reductions for various vaccination statuses: between 26% and 65% for hospitalization. The presented papers that differentiate between unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals agree that unvaccinated patients benefit more from treatment with Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir. However, when it comes to the dependency of potential on age and comorbidities, further studies are necessary. From the available data, one can conclude that Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir cannot substitute vaccinations; however, its low manufacturing cost and easy administration make it a valuable tool in fighting COVID-19, especially for countries with low vaccination rates.

Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) effectiveness against hospitalization and death in N3C: A target trial emulation study

Importance

COVID-19 has placed a monumental burden on the health care system globally. Although no longer a public health emergency, there is still a pressing need for effective treatments to prevent hospitalization and death. Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) is a promising and potentially effective antiviral that has received emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA.

Objective

Determine real world effectiveness of Paxlovid nationwide and investigate disparities between treated and untreated eligible patients.

Design/Setting/Participants

Population-based cohort study emulating a target trial, using inverse probability weighted models to balance treated and untreated groups on baseline confounders. Participants were patients with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test or diagnosis (index) date between December 2021 and February 2023 selected from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) database who were eligible for Paxlovid treatment. Namely, adults with at least one risk factor for severe COVID-19 illness, no contraindicated medical conditions, not using one or more strictly contraindicated medications, and not hospitalized within three days of index. From this cohort we identified patients who were treated with Paxlovid within 5 days of positive test or diagnosis (n = 98,060) and patients who either did not receive Paxlovid or were treated outside the 5-day window (n = 913,079 never treated; n = 1,771 treated after 5 days).

Exposures

Treatment with Paxlovid within 5 days of positive COVID-19 test or diagnosis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hospitalization and death in the 28 days following COVID-19 index date.

Results

A total of 1,012,910 COVID-19 positive patients at risk for severe COVID-19 were included, 9.7% of whom were treated with Paxlovid. Uptake varied widely by geographic region and timing, with top adoption areas near 50% and bottom near 0%. Adoption increased rapidly after EUA, reaching steady state by 6/2022. Participants who were treated with Paxlovid had a 26% (RR, 0.742; 95% CI, 0.689-0.812) reduction in hospitalization risk and 73% (RR, 0.269, 95% CI, 0.179-0.370) reduction in mortality risk in the 28 days following COVID-19 index date.

Conclusions/Relevance

Paxlovid is effective in preventing hospitalization and death in at-risk COVID-19 patients. These results were robust to a large number of sensitivity considerations.

Disclosure

The authors report no disclosures.

Key points

Question: Is treatment with Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) associated with a reduction in 28-day hospitalization and mortality in patients at risk for severe COVID-19? Findings: In this multi-institute retrospective cohort study of 1,012,910 patients, Paxlovid treatment within 5 days after COVID-19 diagnosis reduced 28-day hospitalization and mortality by 26% and 73% respectively, compared to no treatment with Paxlovid within 5 days. Paxlovid uptake was low overall (9.7%) and highly variable. Meaning: In Paxlovid-eligible patients, treatment was associated with decreased risk of hospitalization and death. Results align with prior randomized trials and observational studies, thus supporting the real-world effectiveness of Paxlovid.