Periodicity of mass extinctions without an extraterrestrial cause

Theory and classification of mass extinction causation

Theory regarding the causation of mass extinctions is in need of systematization, which is the focus of this contribution. Every mass extinction has both an ultimate cause, i.e. the trigger that leads to various climato-environmental changes, and one or more proximate cause(s), i.e. the specific climato-environmental changes that result in elevated biotic mortality. With regard to ultimate causes, strong cases can be made that bolide (i.e. meteor) impacts, large igneous province (LIP) eruptions and bioevolutionary events have each triggered one or more of the Phanerozoic Big Five mass extinctions, and that tectono-oceanic changes have triggered some second-order extinction events. Apart from bolide impacts, other astronomical triggers (e.g. solar flares, gamma bursts and supernova explosions) remain entirely in the realm of speculation. With regard to proximate mechanisms, most extinctions are related to either carbon-release or carbon-burial processes, the former being associated with climatic warming, ocean acidification, reduced marine productivity and lower carbonate δ13C values, and the latter with climatic cooling, increased marine productivity and higher carbonate δ13C values. Environmental parameters such as marine redox conditions and terrestrial weathering intensity do not show consistent relationships with carbon-cycle changes. In this context, mass extinction causation can be usefully classified using a matrix of ultimate and proximate factors. Among the Big Five mass extinctions, the end-Cretaceous biocrisis is an example of a bolide-triggered carbon-release event, the end-Permian and end-Triassic biocrises are examples of LIP-triggered carbon-release events, and the Late Ordovician and Late Devonian biocrises are examples of bioevolution-triggered carbon-burial events. Whereas the bolide-impact and LIP-eruption mechanisms appear to invariably cause carbon release, bioevolutionary triggers can result in variable carbon-cycle changes, e.g. carbon burial during the Late Ordovician and Late Devonian events, carbon release associated with modern anthropogenic climate warming, and little to no carbon-cycle impact due to certain types of ecosystem change (e.g. the advent of the first predators around the end-Ediacaran; the appearance of Paleolithic human hunters in Australasia and the Americas). Broadly speaking, studies of mass extinction causation have suffered from insufficiently critical thinking-an impartial survey of the extant evidence shows that (i) hypotheses of a common ultimate cause (e.g. bolide impacts or LIP eruptions) for all Big Five mass extinctions are suspect given manifest differences in patterns of environmental and biotic change among them; (ii) the Late Ordovician and Late Devonian events were associated with carbon burial and long-term climatic cooling, i.e. changes that are inconsistent with a bolide-impact or LIP-eruption mechanism; and (iii) claims of periodicity in Phanerozoic mass extinctions depended critically on the now-disproven idea that they shared a common extrinsic trigger (i.e. bolide impacts).

Paleozoic-Mesozoic Eustatic Changes and Mass Extinctions: New Insights from Event Interpretation

Recent eustatic reconstructions allow for reconsidering the relationships between the fifteen Paleozoic–Mesozoic mass extinctions (mid-Cambrian, end-Ordovician, Llandovery/Wenlock, Late Devonian, Devonian/Carboniferous, mid-Carboniferous, end-Guadalupian, end-Permian, two mid-Triassic, end-Triassic, Early Jurassic, Jurassic/Cretaceous, Late Cretaceous, and end-Cretaceous extinctions) and global sea-level changes. The relationships between eustatic rises/falls and period-long eustatic trends are examined. Many eustatic events at the mass extinction intervals were not anomalous. Nonetheless, the majority of the considered mass extinctions coincided with either interruptions or changes in the ongoing eustatic trends. It cannot be excluded that such interruptions and changes could have facilitated or even triggered biodiversity losses in the marine realm.

Collective Phase in Resource Competition in a Highly Diverse Ecosystem

Organisms shape their own environment, which in turn affects their survival. This feedback becomes especially important for communities containing a large number of species; however, few existing approaches allow studying this regime, except in simulations. Here, we use methods of statistical physics to analytically solve a classic ecological model of resource competition introduced by MacArthur in 1969. We show that the nonintuitive phenomenology of highly diverse ecosystems includes a phase where the environment constructed by the community becomes fully decoupled from the outside world.

Pattern formation, outbreaks, and synchronization in food chains with two and three species

We study the dynamics of populations of predators and preys using a mean field approach and a spatial model. The mean field description assumes that the individuals are homogeneously mixed and interact with one another with equal probability, so that space can be ignored. In the spatial model, on the other hand, predators can prey only in a certain neighborhood of their spatial location. We show that the size of these predation neighborhoods has dramatic effects on the dynamics and on the organization of the species in space. In the case of a three species food chain, in particular, the populations of predators display a sequence of apparently irregular outbreaks when the predation neighborhood has intermediate values, as compared to the size of the available space. Nonetheless, further increasing their size makes the outbreaks disappear and the dynamics approach that of the mean field model. Our study of synchronization also shows that the periodic behavior displayed by the average populations in a spatially extended system may hide the existence of patches that oscillate out of phase in a highly coordinated fashion.

Long-term evolution of an ecosystem with spontaneous periodicity of mass extinctions

Twenty years ago, after analysing palaeontological data, Raup and Sepkoski suggested that mass extinctions on Earth appear cyclically in time with a period of approximately 26 million years (My). To explain the 26My period, a number of proposals were made involving, e.g., astronomical effects, increased volcanic activity, or the Earth's magnetic field reversal, none of which, however, has been confirmed. Here we study a spatially extended discrete model of an ecosystem and show that the periodicity of mass extinctions might be a natural feature of the ecosystem's dynamics and not the result of a periodic external perturbation. In our model, periodic changes of the diversity of an ecosystem and some of its other characteristics are induced by the coevolution of species. In agreement with some palaeontological data, our results show that the longevity of a species depends on the evolutionary stage at which the species is created. Possible further tests of our model are also discussed.

Grazers and grass: Monte Carlo simulations

To illustrate the interplay between grazers and grass, we present a novel Monte Carlo model including grass-island growth, consumption of grass by grazers, and birth, migration and death of grazers. The rates of the former and three latter processes are assumed to depend on the environment so that the conventional mean-field approximation does not hold (in particular, the model takes into account that grass grows on the grass-island boundaries, and grazers are mobile and prefer to stay on the areas covered by grass). Due to the feedback between various processes, as expected, the model predicts stable regimes and irregular oscillations of the area of the grass islands and grazer population. The patterns observed are however different compared to those predicted by conventional Monte Carlo prey-predator models. Specifically, there is no tendency for grazers and grass to segregate. The mean-field version of the model is briefly discussed as well.