Michaelis-like complex of SARS-CoV-2 main protease visualized by room-temperature X-ray crystallography

Visualizing the Active Site Oxyanion Loop Transition Upon Ensitrelvir Binding and Transient Dimerization of SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease

N-terminal autoprocessing from its polyprotein precursor enables creating the mature-like stable dimer interface of SARS-CoV-2 main protease (MPro), concomitant with the active site oxyanion loop equilibrium transitioning to the active conformation (E*) and onset of catalytic activity. Through mutagenesis of critical interface residues and evaluating noncovalent inhibitor (ensitrelvir, ESV) facilitated dimerization through its binding to MPro, we demonstrate that residues extending from Ser1 through Glu14 are critical for dimerization. Combined mutations G11A, E290A and R298A (MPro™) restrict dimerization even upon binding of ESV to monomeric MPro™ with an inhibitor dissociation constant of 7.4 ± 1.6 µM. Contrasting the covalent inhibitor NMV or GC373 binding to monomeric MPro, ESV binding enabled capturing the transition of the oxyanion loop conformations in the absence of a reactive warhead and independent of dimerization. Characterization of complexes by room-temperature X-ray crystallography reveals ESV bound to the E* state of monomeric MPro as well as an intermediate approaching the inactive state (E). It appears that the E* to E equilibrium shift occurs initially from G138-F140 residues, leading to the unwinding of the loop and formation of the 310-helix. Finally, we describe a transient dimer structure of the MPro precursor held together through interactions of residues A5-G11 with distinct states of the active sites, E and E*, likely representing an intermediate in the autoprocessing pathway.

Macrocyclic Azapeptide Nitriles: Structure-Based Discovery of Potent SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease Inhibitors as Antiviral Drugs

Given the crucial role of the main protease (Mpro) in the replication cycle of SARS-CoV-2, this viral cysteine protease constitutes a high-profile drug target. We investigated peptidomimetic azapeptide nitriles as auspicious, irreversibly acting inhibitors of Mpro. Our systematic approach combined an Mpro active-site scanning by combinatorially assembled azanitriles with structure-based design. Encouraged by the bioactive conformation of open-chain inhibitors, we conceptualized the novel chemotype of macrocyclic azanitriles whose binding mode was elucidated by cocrystallization. This strategy provided a favorable entropic contribution to target binding and resulted in the development of the extraordinarily potent Mpro inhibitor 84 with an IC50 value of 3.23 nM and a second-order rate constant of inactivation, kinac/Ki, of 448,000 M-1s-1. The open-chain Mpro inhibitor 58, along with the macrocyclic compounds 83 and 84, a broad-spectrum anticoronaviral agent, demonstrated the highest antiviral activity with EC50 values in the single-digit micromolar range. Our findings are expected to promote the future development of peptidomimetic Mpro inhibitors as anti-SARS-CoV-2 agents.

Insights into the mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 main protease autocatalytic maturation from model precursors

A critical step for SARS-CoV-2 assembly and maturation involves the autoactivation of the main protease (MProWT) from precursor polyproteins. Upon expression, a model precursor of MProWT mediates its own release at its termini rapidly to yield a mature dimer. A construct with an E290A mutation within MPro exhibits time dependent autoprocessing of the accumulated precursor at the N-terminal nsp4/nsp5 site followed by the C-terminal nsp5/nsp6 cleavage. In contrast, a precursor containing E290A and R298A mutations (MProM) displays cleavage only at the nsp4/nsp5 site to yield an intermediate monomeric product, which is cleaved at the nsp5/nsp6 site only by MProWT. MProM and the catalytic domain (MPro1-199) fused to the truncated nsp4 region also show time-dependent conversion in vitro to produce MProM and MPro1-199, respectively. The reactions follow first-order kinetics indicating that the nsp4/nsp5 cleavage occurs via an intramolecular mechanism. These results support a mechanism involving an N-terminal intramolecular cleavage leading to an increase in the dimer population and followed by an intermolecular cleavage at the C-terminus. Thus, targeting the predominantly monomeric MPro precursor for inhibition may lead to the identification of potent drugs for treatment.

Dynamical Nonequilibrium Molecular Dynamics Simulations Identify Allosteric Sites and Positions Associated with Drug Resistance in the SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease

The SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro) plays an essential role in the coronavirus lifecycle by catalyzing hydrolysis of the viral polyproteins at specific sites. Mpro is the target of drugs, such as nirmatrelvir, though resistant mutants have emerged that threaten drug efficacy. Despite its importance, questions remain on the mechanism of how Mpro binds its substrates. Here, we apply dynamical nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (D-NEMD) simulations to evaluate structural and dynamical responses of Mpro to the presence and absence of a substrate. The results highlight communication between the Mpro dimer subunits and identify networks, including some far from the active site, that link the active site with a known allosteric inhibition site, or which are associated with nirmatrelvir resistance. They imply that some mutations enable resistance by altering the allosteric behavior of Mpro. More generally, the results show the utility of the D-NEMD technique for identifying functionally relevant allosteric sites and networks including those relevant to resistance.

Contribution of the catalytic dyad of SARS-CoV-2 main protease to binding covalent and noncovalent inhibitors

The effect of mutations of the catalytic dyad residues of SARS-CoV-2 main protease (MPro^WT) on the thermodynamics of binding of covalent inhibitors comprising nitrile [nirmatrelvir (NMV), NBH2], aldehyde (GC373) and ketone (BBH1) warheads to MPro is examined together with room temperature X-ray crystallography. When lacking the nucleophilic C145, NMV binding is ∼400-fold weaker corresponding to 3.5 kcal/mol and 13.3 °C decreases in free energy (ΔG) and thermal stability (T_m), respectively, relative to MPro^WT. The H41A mutation results in a 20-fold increase in the dissociation constant (K_d), and 1.7 kcal/mol and 1.4 °C decreases in ΔG and T_m, respectively. Increasing the pH from 7.2 to 8.2 enhances NMV binding to MPro^H41A, whereas no significant change is observed in binding to MPro^WT. Structures of the four inhibitor complexes with MPro^1-304/C145A show that the active site geometries of the complexes are nearly identical to that of MPro^WT with the nucleophilic sulfur of C145 positioned to react with the nitrile or the carbonyl carbon. These results support a two-step mechanism for the formation of the covalent complex involving an initial non-covalent binding followed by a nucleophilic attack by the thiolate anion of C145 on the warhead carbon. Noncovalent inhibitor ensitrelvir (ESV) exhibits a binding affinity to MPro^WT that is similar to NMV but differs in its thermodynamic signature from NMV. The binding of ESV to MPro^C145A also results in a significant, but smaller, increase in K_d and decrease in ΔG and T_m, relative to NMV.

SARS-CoV-2 polyprotein substrate regulates the stepwise Mpro cleavage reaction

The processing of the Coronavirus polyproteins pp1a and pp1ab by the main protease M^pro to produce mature proteins is a crucial event in virus replication and a promising target for antiviral drug development. M^pro cleaves polyproteins in a defined order, but how M^pro and/or the polyproteins determine the order of cleavage remains enigmatic due to a lack of structural information about polyprotein-bound M^pro. Here, we present the cryo-EM structures of SARS-CoV-2 M^pro in an apo form and in complex with the nsp7-10 region of the pp1a polyprotein. The complex structure shows that M^pro interacts with only the recognition site residues between nsp9 and nsp10, without any association with the rest of the polyprotein. Comparison between the apo form and polyprotein-bound structures of M^pro highlights the flexible nature of the active site region of M^pro, which allows it to accommodate 10 recognition sites found in the polyprotein. These observations suggest that the role of M^pro in selecting a preferred cleavage site is limited and underscore the roles of the structure, conformation and/or dynamics of the polyproteins in determining the sequence of polyprotein cleavage by M^pro.

AI-Accelerated Design of Targeted Covalent Inhibitors for SARS-CoV-2

Direct-acting antivirals for the treatment of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus are needed to complement vaccination efforts. Given the ongoing emergence of new variants, automated experimentation, and active learning based fast workflows for antiviral lead discovery remain critical to our ability to address the pandemic's evolution in a timely manner. While several such pipelines have been introduced to discover candidates with noncovalent interactions with the main protease (Mpro), here we developed a closed-loop artificial intelligence pipeline to design electrophilic warhead-based covalent candidates. This work introduces a deep learning-assisted automated computational workflow to introduce linkers and an electrophilic "warhead" to design covalent candidates and incorporates cutting-edge experimental techniques for validation. Using this process, promising candidates in the library were screened, and several potential hits were identified and tested experimentally using native mass spectrometry and fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET)-based screening assays. We identified four chloroacetamide-based covalent inhibitors of Mpro with micromolar affinities (KI of 5.27 μM) using our pipeline. Experimentally resolved binding modes for each compound were determined using room-temperature X-ray crystallography, which is consistent with the predicted poses. The induced conformational changes based on molecular dynamics simulations further suggest that the dynamics may be an important factor to further improve selectivity, thereby effectively lowering KI and reducing toxicity. These results demonstrate the utility of our modular and data-driven approach for potent and selective covalent inhibitor discovery and provide a platform to apply it to other emerging targets.

Binding and Unbinding Pathways of Peptide Substrates on the SARS-CoV-2 3CL Protease

Based on many crystal structures of ligand complexes, much study has been devoted to understanding the molecular recognition of SARS-CoV-2 3C-like protease (3CL^pro), a potent drug target for COVID-19. In this research, to extend this present static view, we examined the kinetic process of binding/unbinding of an eight-residue substrate peptide to/from 3CL^pro by evaluating the path ensemble with the weighted ensemble simulation. The path ensemble showed the mechanism of how a highly flexible peptide folded into the bound form. At the early stage, the dominant motion was the diffusion on the protein surface showing a broad distribution, whose center was led into the cleft of the chymotrypsin fold. We observed a definite sequential formation of the hydrogen bonds at the later stage occurring in the cleft, initiated between Glu166 (3CL^pro) and P3_Val (peptide), followed by binding to the oxyanion hole and completed by the sequence-specific recognition at P1_Gln.

Structural similarities between SARS-CoV2 3CLpro and other viral proteases suggest potential lead molecules for developing broad spectrum antivirals

Considering the significant impact of the recent COVID-19 outbreak, development of broad-spectrum antivirals is a high priority goal to prevent future global pandemics. Antiviral development processes generally emphasize targeting a specific protein from a particular virus. However, some antiviral agents developed for specific viral protein targets may exhibit broad spectrum antiviral activity, or at least provide useful lead molecules for broad spectrum drug development. There is significant potential for repurposing a wide range of existing viral protease inhibitors to inhibit the SARS-CoV2 3C-like protease (3CLpro). If effective even as relatively weak inhibitors of 3CLpro, these molecules can provide a diverse and novel set of scaffolds for new drug discovery campaigns. In this study, we compared the sequence- and structure-based similarity of SARS-CoV2 3CLpro with proteases from other viruses, and identified 22 proteases with similar active-site structures. This structural similarity, characterized by secondary-structure topology diagrams, is evolutionarily divergent within taxonomically related viruses, but appears to result from evolutionary convergence of protease enzymes between virus families. Inhibitors of these proteases that are structurally similar to the SARS-CoV2 3CLpro protease were identified and assessed as potential inhibitors of SARS-CoV2 3CLpro protease by virtual docking. Several of these molecules have docking scores that are significantly better than known SARS-CoV2 3CLpro inhibitors, suggesting that these molecules are also potential inhibitors of the SARS-CoV2 3CLpro protease. Some have been previously reported to inhibit SARS-CoV2 3CLpro. The results also suggest that established inhibitors of SARS-CoV2 3CLpro may be considered as potential inhibitors of other viral 3C-like proteases.

Autoprocessing and oxyanion loop reorganization upon GC373 and nirmatrelvir binding of monomeric SARS-CoV-2 main protease catalytic domain

The monomeric catalytic domain (residues 1–199) of SARS-CoV-2 main protease (MPro^1-199) fused to 25 amino acids of its flanking nsp4 region mediates its autoprocessing at the nsp4-MPro^1-199 junction. We report the catalytic activity and the dissociation constants of MPro^1-199 and its analogs with the covalent inhibitors GC373 and nirmatrelvir (NMV), and the estimated monomer-dimer equilibrium constants of these complexes. Mass spectrometry indicates the presence of the accumulated adduct of NMV bound to MPro^WT and MPro^1-199 and not of GC373. A room temperature crystal structure reveals a native-like fold of the catalytic domain with an unwound oxyanion loop (E state). In contrast, the structure of a covalent complex of the catalytic domain-GC373 or NMV shows an oxyanion loop conformation (E* state) resembling the full-length mature dimer. These results suggest that the E-E* equilibrium modulates autoprocessing of the main protease when converting from a monomeric polyprotein precursor to the mature dimer.

Structural characterization and catalytic activity of SARS-CoV-2 main protease reveal minimal interface regions enabling dimer formation driven by inhibitor-induced conformational changes of the oxyanion loop.

Structural and functional characterization of NEMO cleavage by SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro

In addition to its essential role in viral polyprotein processing, the SARS-CoV-2 3C-like protease (3CLpro) can cleave human immune signaling proteins, like NF-κB Essential Modulator (NEMO) and deregulate the host immune response. Here, in vitro assays show that SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro cleaves NEMO with fine-tuned efficiency. Analysis of the 2.50 Å resolution crystal structure of 3CLpro C145S bound to NEMO226-234 reveals subsites that tolerate a range of viral and host substrates through main chain hydrogen bonds while also enforcing specificity using side chain hydrogen bonds and hydrophobic contacts. Machine learning- and physics-based computational methods predict that variation in key binding residues of 3CLpro-NEMO helps explain the high fitness of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. We posit that cleavage of NEMO is an important piece of information to be accounted for, in the pathology of COVID-19.

X-ray crystallographic characterization of the SARS-CoV-2 main protease polyprotein cleavage sites essential for viral processing and maturation

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the pathogen that causes COVID-19, produces polyproteins 1a and 1ab that contain, respectively, 11 or 16 non-structural proteins (nsp). Nsp5 is the main protease (M^pro) responsible for cleavage at eleven positions along these polyproteins, including at its own N- and C-terminal boundaries, representing essential processing events for viral assembly and maturation. Using C-terminally substituted M^pro chimeras, we have determined X-ray crystallographic structures of M^pro in complex with 10 of its 11 viral cleavage sites, bound at full occupancy intermolecularly in trans, within the active site of either the native enzyme and/or a catalytic mutant (C145A). Capture of both acyl-enzyme intermediate and product-like complex forms of a P2(Leu) substrate in the native active site provides direct comparative characterization of these mechanistic steps as well as further informs the basis for enhanced product release of M^pro’s own unique C-terminal P2(Phe) cleavage site to prevent autoinhibition. We characterize the underlying noncovalent interactions governing binding and specificity for this diverse set of substrates, showing remarkable plasticity for subsites beyond the anchoring P1(Gln)-P2(Leu/Val/Phe), representing together a near complete analysis of a multiprocessing viral protease. Collectively, these crystallographic snapshots provide valuable mechanistic and structural insights for antiviral therapeutic development.

The SARS-CoV-2 protease Mpro is essential for viral replication. Here, the authors have determined the structures of Mpro in complex with 10 of the 11 viral cleavage sequences including a covalent acyl-enzyme intermediate, providing mechanistic and structural insights for antiviral development.

The SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro): Structure, function, and emerging therapies for COVID-19

The main proteases (M^pro), also termed 3‐chymotrypsin‐like proteases (3CL^pro), are a class of highly conserved cysteine hydrolases in β‐coronaviruses. Increasing evidence has demonstrated that 3CL^pros play an indispensable role in viral replication and have been recognized as key targets for preventing and treating coronavirus‐caused infectious diseases, including COVID‐19. This review is focused on the structural features and biological function of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) main protease M^pro (also known as 3CL^pro), as well as recent advances in discovering and developing SARS‐CoV‐2 3CL^pro inhibitors. To better understand the characteristics of SARS‐CoV‐2 3CL^pro inhibitors, the inhibition activities, inhibitory mechanisms, and key structural features of various 3CL^pro inhibitors (including marketed drugs, peptidomimetic, and non‐peptidomimetic synthetic compounds, as well as natural compounds and their derivatives) are summarized comprehensively. Meanwhile, the challenges in this field are highlighted, while future directions for designing and developing efficacious 3CL^pro inhibitors as novel anti‐coronavirus therapies are also proposed. Collectively, all information and knowledge presented here are very helpful for understanding the structural features and inhibitory mechanisms of SARS‐CoV‐2 3CL^pro inhibitors, which offers new insights or inspiration to medicinal chemists for designing and developing more efficacious 3CL^pro inhibitors as novel anti‐coronavirus agents.

EWALD: A macromolecular diffractometer for the second target station

Revealing the positions of all the atoms in large macromolecules is powerful but only possible with neutron macromolecular crystallography (NMC). Neutrons provide a sensitive and gentle probe for the direct detection of protonation states at near-physiological temperatures and clean of artifacts caused by x rays or electrons. Currently, NMC use is restricted by the requirement for large crystal volumes even at state-of-the-art instruments such as the macromolecular neutron diffractometer at the Spallation Neutron Source. EWALD's design will break the crystal volume barrier and, thus, open the door for new types of experiments, the study of grand challenge systems, and the more routine use of NMC in biology. EWALD is a single crystal diffractometer capable of collecting data from macromolecular crystals on orders of magnitude smaller than what is currently feasible. The construction of EWALD at the Second Target Station will cause a revolution in NMC by enabling key discoveries in the biological, biomedical, and bioenergy sciences.

Antiviral Drug Discovery for the Treatment of COVID-19 Infections

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a recently emerged human coronavirus. COVID-19 vaccines have proven to be successful in protecting the vaccinated from infection, reducing the severity of disease, and deterring the transmission of infection. However, COVID-19 vaccination faces many challenges, such as the decline in vaccine-induced immunity over time, and the decrease in potency against some SARS-CoV-2 variants including the recently emerged Omicron variant, resulting in breakthrough infections. The challenges that COVID-19 vaccination is facing highlight the importance of the discovery of antivirals to serve as another means to tackle the pandemic. To date, neutralizing antibodies that block viral entry by targeting the viral spike protein make up the largest class of antivirals that has received US FDA emergency use authorization (EUA) for COVID-19 treatment. In addition to the spike protein, other key targets for the discovery of direct-acting antivirals include viral enzymes that are essential for SARS-CoV-2 replication, such as RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and proteases, as judged by US FDA approval for remdesivir, and EUA for Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir + ritonavir) for treating COVID-19 infections. This review presents an overview of the current status and future direction of antiviral drug discovery for treating SARS-CoV-2 infections, covering important antiviral targets such as the viral spike protein, non-structural protein (nsp) 3 papain-like protease, nsp5 main protease, and the nsp12/nsp7/nsp8 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase complex.

Covalent narlaprevir- and boceprevir-derived hybrid inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 main protease

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants continue to threaten the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, and small-molecule antivirals can provide an important therapeutic treatment option. The viral main protease (M^pro) is critical for virus replication and thus is considered an attractive drug target. We performed the design and characterization of three covalent hybrid inhibitors BBH-1, BBH-2 and NBH-2 created by splicing components of hepatitis C protease inhibitors boceprevir and narlaprevir, and known SARS-CoV-1 protease inhibitors. A joint X-ray/neutron structure of the M^pro/BBH-1 complex demonstrates that a Cys145 thiolate reaction with the inhibitor’s keto-warhead creates a negatively charged oxyanion. Protonation states of the ionizable residues in the M^pro active site adapt to the inhibitor, which appears to be an intrinsic property of M^pro. Structural comparisons of the hybrid inhibitors with PF-07321332 reveal unconventional F···O interactions of PF-07321332 with M^pro which may explain its more favorable enthalpy of binding. BBH-1, BBH-2 and NBH-2 exhibit comparable antiviral properties in vitro relative to PF-07321332, making them good candidates for further design of improved antivirals.

Three covalent hybrid inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro) have been designed and compared to Pfizer’s nirmatrelvir (PF-07321332), providing atomic and thermodynamic details of their binding to the enzyme, and antiviral potency.

Potential Resistance of SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease (Mpro) against Protease Inhibitors: Lessons Learned from HIV-1 Protease

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been one of the most devastating pandemics of recent times. The lack of potent novel antivirals had led to global health crises; however, emergence and approval of potent inhibitors of the viral main protease (Mpro), such as Pfizer's newly approved nirmatrelvir, offers hope not only in the therapeutic front but also in the context of prophylaxis against the infection. By their nature, RNA viruses including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have inherently high mutation rates, and lessons learnt from previous and currently ongoing pandemics have taught us that these viruses can easily escape selection pressure through mutation of vital target amino acid residues in monotherapeutic settings. In this paper, we review nirmatrelvir and its binding to SARS-CoV-2 Mpro and draw a comparison to inhibitors of HIV protease that were rendered obsolete by emergence of resistance mutations, emphasizing potential pitfalls in the design of inhibitors that may be of important relevance to the long-term use of novel inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2.

Modulation of the monomer-dimer equilibrium and catalytic activity of SARS-CoV-2 main protease by a transition-state analog inhibitor

The role of dimer formation for the onset of catalytic activity of SARS-CoV-2 main protease (MPro^WT) was assessed using a predominantly monomeric mutant (MPro^M). Rates of MPro^WT and MPro^M catalyzed hydrolyses display substrate saturation kinetics and second-order dependency on the protein concentration. The addition of the prodrug GC376, an inhibitor of MPro^WT, to MPro^M leads to an increase in the dimer population and catalytic activity with increasing inhibitor concentration. The activity reaches a maximum corresponding to a dimer population in which one active site is occupied by the inhibitor and the other is available for catalytic activity. This phase is followed by a decrease in catalytic activity due to the inhibitor competing with the substrate. Detailed kinetics and equilibrium analyses are presented and a modified Michaelis-Menten equation accounts for the results. These observations provide conclusive evidence that dimer formation is coupled to catalytic activity represented by two equivalent active sites.

A new inactive conformation of SARS-CoV-2 main protease

The SARS‐CoV‐2 main protease (M^pro) has a pivotal role in mediating viral genome replication and transcription of the coronavirus, making it a promising target for drugs against the COVID‐19 pandemic. Here, a crystal structure is presented in which M^pro adopts an inactive state that has never been observed before, called new‐inactive. It is shown that the oxyanion loop, which is involved in substrate recognition and enzymatic activity, adopts a new catalytically incompetent conformation and that many of the key interactions of the active conformation of the enzyme around the active site are lost. Solvation/desolvation energetic contributions play an important role in the transition from the inactive to the active state, with Phe140 moving from an exposed to a buried environment and Asn142 moving from a buried environment to an exposed environment. In new‐inactive M^pro a new cavity is present near the S2′ subsite, and the N‐terminal and C‐terminal tails, as well as the dimeric interface, are perturbed, with partial destabilization of the dimeric assembly. This novel conformation is relevant both for comprehension of the mechanism of action of M^pro within the catalytic cycle and for the successful structure‐based drug design of antiviral drugs.

Structural and functional characterization of NEMO cleavage by SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro.. [PMID: 34816264 PMCID: PMC8609902 DOI: 10.1101/2021.11.11.468228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

In addition to its essential role in viral polyprotein processing, the SARS-CoV-2 3C-like (3CLpro) protease can cleave human immune signaling proteins, like NF-κB Essential Modulator (NEMO) and deregulate the host immune response. Here, in vitro assays show that SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro cleaves NEMO with fine-tuned efficiency. Analysis of the 2.14 Å resolution crystal structure of 3CLpro C145S bound to NEMO_226–235 reveals subsites that tolerate a range of viral and host substrates through main chain hydrogen bonds while also enforcing specificity using side chain hydrogen bonds and hydrophobic contacts. Machine learning- and physics-based computational methods predict that variation in key binding residues of 3CLpro-NEMO helps explain the high fitness of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. We posit that cleavage of NEMO is an important piece of information to be accounted for in the pathology of COVID-19.