Blood glucose prediction using stochastic modeling in neonatal intensive care

Virtual patient with temporal evolution for mechanical ventilation trial studies: A stochastic model approach

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Healthcare datasets are plagued by issues of data scarcity and class imbalance. Clinically validated virtual patient (VP) models can provide accurate in-silico representations of real patients and thus a means for synthetic data generation in hospital critical care settings. This research presents a realistic, time-varying mechanically ventilated respiratory failure VP profile synthesised using a stochastic model.

METHODS

A stochastic model was developed using respiratory elastance (Ers) data from two clinical cohorts and averaged over 30-minute time intervals. The stochastic model was used to generate future Ers data based on current Ers values with added normally distributed random noise. Self-validation of the VPs was performed via Monte Carlo simulation and retrospective Ers profile fitting. A stochastic VP cohort of temporal Ers evolution was synthesised and then compared to an independent retrospective patient cohort data in a virtual trial across several measured patient responses, where similarity of profiles validates the realism of stochastic model generated VP profiles.

RESULTS

A total of 120,000 3-hour VPs for pressure control (PC) and volume control (VC) ventilation modes are generated using stochastic simulation. Optimisation of the stochastic simulation process yields an ideal noise percentage of 5-10% and simulation iteration of 200,000 iterations, allowing the simulation of a realistic and diverse set of Ers profiles. Results of self-validation show the retrospective Ers profiles were able to be recreated accurately with a mean squared error of only 0.099 [0.009-0.790]% for the PC cohort and 0.051 [0.030-0.126]% for the VC cohort. A virtual trial demonstrates the ability of the stochastic VP cohort to capture Ers trends within and beyond the retrospective patient cohort providing cohort-level validation.

CONCLUSION

VPs capable of temporal evolution demonstrate feasibility for use in designing, developing, and optimising bedside MV guidance protocols through in-silico simulation and validation. Overall, the temporal VPs developed using stochastic simulation alleviate the need for lengthy, resource intensive, high cost clinical trials, while facilitating statistically robust virtual trials, ultimately leading to improved patient care and outcomes in mechanical ventilation.

A simple modeling framework for prediction in the human glucose-insulin system

Forecasting blood glucose (BG) levels with routinely collected data is useful for glycemic management. BG dynamics are nonlinear, complex, and nonstationary, which can be represented by nonlinear models. However, the sparsity of routinely collected data creates parameter identifiability issues when high-fidelity complex models are used, thereby resulting in inaccurate forecasts. One can use models with reduced physiological fidelity for robust and accurate parameter estimation and forecasting with sparse data. For this purpose, we approximate the nonlinear dynamics of BG regulation by a linear stochastic differential equation: we develop a linear stochastic model, which can be specialized to different settings: type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and intensive care unit (ICU), with different choices of appropriate model functions. The model includes deterministic terms quantifying glucose removal from the bloodstream through the glycemic regulation system and representing the effect of nutrition and externally delivered insulin. The stochastic term encapsulates the BG oscillations. The model output is in the form of an expected value accompanied by a band around this value. The model parameters are estimated patient-specifically, leading to personalized models. The forecasts consist of values for BG mean and variation, quantifying possible high and low BG levels. Such predictions have potential use for glycemic management as part of control systems. We present experimental results on parameter estimation and forecasting in T2DM and ICU settings. We compare the model's predictive capability with two different nonlinear models built for T2DM and ICU contexts to have a sense of the level of prediction achieved by this model.

Model-based subcutaneous insulin for glycemic control of pre-term infants in the neonatal intensive care unit

Hyperglycaemia is a common problem in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Achieving good control can result in better outcomes for patients. However, good control is difficult, where poor control and resulting hypoglycaemia reduces outcomes and confounds results. Clinically validated models can provide good control, and subcutaneous insulin delivery can provide more options for insulin therapy for clinicians. However, this combination has only been significantly utilised in adult outpatient diabetes, but could hold benefit for treating NICU infants. This research combines a well-validated NICU metabolic model with subcutaneous insulin kinetics models to assess the feasibility of a model-based approach. Clinical data from 12 very/extremely pre-mature infants was collected for an average study duration of 10.1 days. Blood glucose, interstitial and plasma insulin, as well as subcutaneous and local insulin were modelled, and patient-specific insulin sensitivity profiles were identified for each patient. Modelling error was low, where the cohort median [IQR] mean percentage error was 0.8 [0.3 3.4] %. For external validation, insulin sensitivity was compared to previous NICU cohorts using the same metabolic model, where overall levels of insulin sensitivity were similar. Overall, the combined system model accurately captured observed glucose and insulin dynamics, showing the potential for a model-based approach to glycaemic control using subcutaneous insulin in this cohort. The results justify further model validation and clinical trial research to explore a model-based protocol.

Predicting mechanically ventilated patients future respiratory system elastance - A stochastic modelling approach

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Respiratory mechanics of mechanically ventilated patients evolve significantly with time, disease state and mechanical ventilation (MV) treatment. Existing deterministic data prediction methods fail to comprehensively describe the multiple sources of heterogeneity of biological systems. This research presents two respiratory mechanics stochastic models with increased prediction accuracy and range, offering improved clinical utility in MV treatment.

METHODS

Two stochastic models (SM2 and SM3) were developed using retrospective patient respiratory elastance (E_rs) from two clinical cohorts which were averaged over time intervals of 10 and 30 min respectively. A stochastic model from a previous study (SM1) was used to benchmark performance. The stochastic models were clinically validated on an independent retrospective clinical cohort of 14 patients. Differences in predictive ability were evaluated using the difference in percentile lines and cumulative distribution density (CDD) curves.

RESULTS

Clinical validation shows all three models captured more than 98% (median) of future E_rs data within the 5th - 95th percentile range. Comparisons of stochastic model percentile lines reported a maximum mean absolute percentage difference of 5.2%. The absolute differences of CDD curves were less than 0.25 in the ranges of 5 < E_rs (cmH₂O/L) < 85, suggesting similar predictive capabilities within this clinically relevant E_rs range.

CONCLUSION

The new stochastic models significantly improve prediction, clinical utility, and thus feasibility for synchronisation with clinical interventions. Paired with other MV protocols, the stochastic models developed can potentially form part of decision support systems, providing guided, personalised, and safe MV treatment.

Estimating Enhanced Endogenous Glucose Production in Intensive Care Unit Patients with Severe Insulin Resistance

BACKGROUND

Critically ill ICU patients frequently experience acute insulin resistance and increased endogenous glucose production, manifesting as stress-induced hyperglycemia and hyperinsulinemia. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a glycemic control protocol, which directly manages inter- and intra- patient variability using model-based insulin sensitivity (SI). The model behind STAR assumes a population constant for endogenous glucose production (EGP), which is not otherwise identifiable.

OBJECTIVE

This study analyses the effect of estimating EGP for ICU patients with very low SI (severe insulin resistance) and its impact on identified, model-based insulin sensitivity identification, modeling accuracy, and model-based glycemic clinical control.

METHODS

Using clinical data from 717 STAR patients in 3 independent cohorts (Hungary, New Zealand, and Malaysia), insulin sensitivity, time of insulin resistance, and EGP values are analyzed. A method is presented to estimate EGP in the presence of non-physiologically low SI. Performance is assessed via model accuracy.

RESULTS

Results show 22%-62% of patients experience 1+ episodes of severe insulin resistance, representing 0.87%-9.00% of hours. Episodes primarily occur in the first 24 h, matching clinical expectations. The Malaysian cohort is most affected. In this subset of hours, constant model-based EGP values can bias identified SI and increase blood glucose (BG) fitting error. Using the EGP estimation method presented in these constrained hours significantly reduced BG fitting errors.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients early in ICU stay may have significantly increased EGP. Increasing modeled EGP in model-based glycemic control can improve control accuracy in these hours. The results provide new insight into the frequency and level of significantly increased EGP in critical illness.

Stochastic integrated model-based protocol for volume-controlled ventilation setting

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is the primary form of care for respiratory failure patients. MV settings are based on general clinical guidelines, intuition, and experience. This approach is not patient-specific and patients may thus experience suboptimal, potentially harmful MV care. This study presents the Stochastic integrated VENT (SiVENT) protocol which combines model-based approaches of the VENT protocol from previous works, with stochastic modelling to take the variation of patient respiratory elastance over time into consideration.

METHODS

A stochastic model of Ers is integrated into the VENT protocol from previous works to develop the SiVENT protocol, to account for both intra- and inter-patient variability. A cohort of 20 virtual MV patients based on retrospective patient data are used to validate the performance of this method for volume-controlled (VC) ventilation. A performance evaluation was conducted where the SiVENT and VENT protocols were implemented in 1080 instances each to compare the two protocols and evaluate the difference in reduction of possible MV settings achieved by each.

RESULTS

From an initial number of 189,000 possible MV setting combinations, the VENT protocol reduced this number to a median of 10,612, achieving a reduction of 94.4% across the cohort. With the integration of the stochastic model component, the SiVENT protocol reduced this number from 189,000 to a median of 9329, achieving a reduction of 95.1% across the cohort. The SiVENT protocol reduces the number of possible combinations provided to the user by more than 1000 combinations as compared to the VENT protocol.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding a stochastic model component into a model-based approach to selecting MV settings improves the ability of a decision support system to recommend patient-specific MV settings. It specifically considers inter- and intra-patient variability in respiratory elastance and eliminates potentially harmful settings based on clinically recommended pressure thresholds. Clinical input and local protocols can further reduce the number of safe setting combinations. The results for the SiVENT protocol justify further investigation of its prediction accuracy and clinical validation trials.

High Inter-Patient Variability in Sepsis Evolution: A Hidden Markov Model Analysis

BACKGROUND

Severe sepsis and septic shock are common in the intensive care unit (ICU) and contribute significantly to cost and mortality. Early treatment is critical but is confounded by the difficulty of real-time diagnosis. This study uses hidden Markov models (HMMs) to examine whether the time evolution of sepsis can add diagnostic accuracy or value using a proven set of bio-signals.

METHODS

Clinical data (N=36 patients; 6071 hours), including an hourly personalised insulin sensitivity metric. A two hidden state HMM is created to discriminate diagnosed cases (Severe Sepsis, Septic Shock) from controls (SIRS, Sepsis) states. Diagnostic performance is measured by ROC curves, likelihood ratios (LHRs), sensitivity/specificity, and diagnostic odds-ratios (DOR), for a best-case resubstitution estimate and a worst-case 80/20% repeated holdout analysis.

RESULTS

The HMM delivered near perfect results (95% Sensitivity; 96% Specificity) for best-case resubstitution estimates, but was comparatively poor (59% Sensitivity; 61% Specificity) for worst-case repeated holdout estimations. Adding the time evolution of sepsis did not add to the accuracy of diagnosis from using the signals alone without time history.

CONCLUSIONS

These potentially surprising results indicate significant inter-patient variability in the time evolution of sepsis, preventing effective diagnosis in the context of the bio-signals, data, and HMM topology used. Efforts for improved real-time, early sepsis diagnosis should concentrate on the robustness and efficacy of the bio-signals and data used, as well as the level of model complexity, to create more effective real-time classifiers.

Insulin sensitivity in critically ill patients: are women more insulin resistant?

Background

Glycaemic control (GC) in intensive care unit is challenging due to significant inter- and intra-patient variability, leading to increased risk of hypoglycaemia. Recent work showed higher insulin resistance in female preterm neonates. This study aims to determine if there are differences in inter- and intra-patient metabolic variability between sexes in adults, to gain in insight into any differences in metabolic response to injury. Any significant difference would suggest GC and randomised trial design should consider sex differences to personalise care.

Methods

Insulin sensitivity (SI) levels and variability are identified from retrospective clinical data for men and women. Data are divided using 6-h blocks to capture metabolic evolution over time. In total, 91 male and 54 female patient GC episodes of minimum 24 h are analysed. Hypothesis testing is used to determine whether differences are significant (P < 0.05), and equivalence testing is used to assess whether these differences can be considered equivalent at a clinical level. Data are assessed for the raw cohort and in 100 Monte Carlo simulations analyses where the number of men and women are equal.

Results

Demographic data between females and males were all similar, including GC outcomes (safety from hypoglycaemia and high (> 50%) time in target band). Females had consistently significantly lower SI levels than males, and this difference was not clinically equivalent. However, metabolic variability between sexes was never significantly different and always clinically equivalent. Thus, inter-patient variability was significantly different between males and females, but intra-patient variability was equivalent.

Conclusion

Given equivalent intra-patient variability and significantly greater insulin resistance, females can receive the same benefit from safe, effective GC as males, but may require higher insulin doses to achieve the same glycaemia. Clinical trials should consider sex differences in protocol design and outcome analyses.

Insulin sensitivity in critically ill patients: are women more insulin resistant?

BACKGROUND

Glycaemic control (GC) in intensive care unit is challenging due to significant inter- and intra-patient variability, leading to increased risk of hypoglycaemia. Recent work showed higher insulin resistance in female preterm neonates. This study aims to determine if there are differences in inter- and intra-patient metabolic variability between sexes in adults, to gain in insight into any differences in metabolic response to injury. Any significant difference would suggest GC and randomised trial design should consider sex differences to personalise care.

METHODS

Insulin sensitivity (SI) levels and variability are identified from retrospective clinical data for men and women. Data are divided using 6-h blocks to capture metabolic evolution over time. In total, 91 male and 54 female patient GC episodes of minimum 24 h are analysed. Hypothesis testing is used to determine whether differences are significant (P < 0.05), and equivalence testing is used to assess whether these differences can be considered equivalent at a clinical level. Data are assessed for the raw cohort and in 100 Monte Carlo simulations analyses where the number of men and women are equal.

RESULTS

Demographic data between females and males were all similar, including GC outcomes (safety from hypoglycaemia and high (> 50%) time in target band). Females had consistently significantly lower SI levels than males, and this difference was not clinically equivalent. However, metabolic variability between sexes was never significantly different and always clinically equivalent. Thus, inter-patient variability was significantly different between males and females, but intra-patient variability was equivalent.

CONCLUSION

Given equivalent intra-patient variability and significantly greater insulin resistance, females can receive the same benefit from safe, effective GC as males, but may require higher insulin doses to achieve the same glycaemia. Clinical trials should consider sex differences in protocol design and outcome analyses.

Stochastic Modelling of Respiratory System Elastance for Mechanically Ventilated Respiratory Failure Patients

While lung protective mechanical ventilation (MV) guidelines have been developed to avoid ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI), a one-size-fits-all approach cannot benefit every individual patient. Hence, there is significant need for the ability to provide patient-specific MV settings to ensure safety, and optimise patient care. Model-based approaches enable patient-specific care by identifying time-varying patient-specific parameters, such as respiratory elastance, E_rs, to capture inter- and intra-patient variability. However, patient-specific parameters evolve with time, as a function of disease progression and patient condition, making predicting their future values crucial for recommending patient-specific MV settings. This study employs stochastic modelling to predict future E_rs values using retrospective patient data to develop and validate a model indicating future intra-patient variability of E_rs. Cross validation results show stochastic modelling can predict future elastance ranges with 92.59 and 68.56% of predicted values within the 5-95% and the 25-75% range, respectively. This range can be used to ensure patients receive adequate minute ventilation should elastance rise and minimise the risk of VILI should elastance fall. The results show the potential for model-based protocols using stochastic model prediction of future E_rs values to provide safe and patient-specific MV. These results warrant further investigation to validate its clinical utility.

Assessment of Glycemic Control Protocol (STAR) Through Compliance Analysis Amongst Malaysian ICU Patients

Purpose

This paper presents an assessment of an automated and personalized stochastic targeted (STAR) glycemic control protocol compliance in Malaysian intensive care unit (ICU) patients to ensure an optimized usage.

Patients and Methods

STAR proposes 1–3 hours treatment based on individual insulin sensitivity variation and history of blood glucose, insulin, and nutrition. A total of 136 patients recorded data from STAR pilot trial in Malaysia (2017–quarter of 2019*) were used in the study to identify the gap between chosen administered insulin and nutrition intervention as recommended by STAR, and the real intervention performed.

Results

The results show the percentage of insulin compliance increased from 2017 to first quarter of 2019* and fluctuated in feed administrations. Overall compliance amounted to 98.8% and 97.7% for administered insulin and feed, respectively. There was higher average of 17 blood glucose measurements per day than in other centres that have been using STAR, but longer intervals were selected when recommended. Control safety and performance were similar for all periods showing no obvious correlation to compliance.

Conclusion

The results indicate that STAR, an automated model-based protocol is positively accepted among the Malaysian ICU clinicians to automate glycemic control and the usage can be extended to other hospitals already. Performance could be improved with several propositions.

Modelling intestinal glucose absorption in premature infants using continuous glucose monitoring data

BACKGROUND

Model-based glycaemic control protocols have shown promise in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) for reducing both hyperglycaemia and insulin-therapy driven hypoglycaemia. However, current models for the appearance of glucose from enteral feeding are based on values from adult intensive care cohorts. This study aims to determine enteral glucose appearance model parameters more reflective of premature infant physiology.

METHODS

Peaks in CGM data associated with enteral milk feeds in preterm and term infants are used to fit a two compartment gut model. The first compartment describes glucose in the stomach, and the half life of gastric emptying is estimated as 20 min from literature. The second compartment describes glucose in the small intestine, and absorption of glucose into the blood is fit to CGM data. Two infant cohorts from two NICUs are used, and results are compared to appearances derived from data in highly controlled studies in literature.

RESULTS

The average half life across all infants for glucose absorption from the gut to the blood was 50 min. This result was slightly slower than, but of similar magnitude to, results derived from literature. No trends were found with gestational or postnatal age. Breast milk fed infants were found to have a higher absorption constant than formula fed infants, a result which may reflect known differences in gastric emptying for different feed types.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper presents a methodology for estimation of glucose appearance due to enteral feeding, and model parameters suitable for a NICU model-based glycaemic control context.

Safe and effective glycaemic control in premature infants: observational clinical results from the computerised STAR-GRYPHON protocol

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies examine clinical outcomes of insulin therapy in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs), without first developing safe and effective control protocols. This research quantifies the safety and performance of a computerised model-based control algorithmSTAR-GRYPHON (Stochastic TARgeted Glucose Regulation sYstem to Prevent Hyper- and hypO-glycaemia in Neonates).

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study of glycaemic control in very/extremely low birthweight infants treated with insulin from Christchurch Women's Hospital NICU between January 2013 and June 2017. Blood glucose (BG) outcomes and control performance is compared with retrospective data (n=22) and literature.

INTERVENTIONS

Insulin infusion doses were calculated from 3 to 4 hourly BG measurements using a computerised model-based control algorithm, STAR-GRYPHON.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Mean BG, time in targeted range and incidence of hypoglycaemia.

RESULTS

STAR-GRYPHON (n=35) had lower mean BG concentration (7.0mmol/L vs 7.9 mmol/L), higher %BG within the 4.0-8.0 mmol/L target range (71.1% vs 50.9%) and lower %BG <4.0 mmol/L (0.6% vs 2.1%). There were only 2 BG <2.6 mmol/L (over n=2, 5.5% of patients, 0.03% of all BG outcomes), one of which may be attributed to clinical error. These results show better control to target and lower incidence of hypoglycaemia than most literature results from intensive insulin therapy protocols or study groups in children and infants.

CONCLUSIONS

Model-based protocols can safely and effectively control BG in very premature infants and should be used in future studies to determine the effect of insulin therapy on clinical outcomes.

Model-based glycaemic control: methodology and initial results from neonatal intensive care

Very/extremely premature infants often experience glycaemic dysregulation, resulting in abnormally elevated (hyperglycaemia) or low (hypoglycaemia) blood glucose (BG) concentrations, due to prematurity, stress, and illness. STAR-GRYPHON is a computerised protocol that utilises a model-based insulin sensitivity parameter to directly tailor therapy for individual patients and their changing conditions, unlike other common insulin protocols in this cohort. From January 2013 to January 2015, 13 patients totalling 16 hyperglycaemic control episodes received insulin under STAR-GRYPHON. A significant improvement in control was achieved in comparison to a retrospective cohort, with a 26% absolute improvement in BG within the targeted range and no hypoglycaemia. This improvement was obtained predominantly due to the reduction of hyperglycaemia (%BG>10.0 mmol/l: 5.6 vs. 17.7%, p<0.001), and lowering of the median per-patient BG [6.9 (6.1-7.9) vs. 7.8 (6.6-9.1) mmol/l, p<0.001, Mann-Witney U test]. While cohort-wide control results show good control overall, there is high intra-patient variability in BG behaviour, resulting in overly conservative treatments for some patients. Patient insulin sensitivity differs between and within patients over time, with some patients having stable insulin sensitivity, while others change rapidly. These results demonstrate the trade-off between safety and performance in a highly variable and fragile cohort.

Computer-determined dosage of insulin in the management of neonatal hyperglycaemia (HINT2): protocol of a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Neonatal hyperglycaemia is frequently treated with insulin, which may increase the risk of hypoglycaemia. Computer-determined dosage of insulin (CDD) with the STAR-GRYPHON program uses a computer model to predict an effective dose of insulin to treat hyperglycaemia while minimising the risk of hypoglycaemia. However, CDD models can require more frequent blood glucose testing than common clinical protocols. The aim of this trial is to determine if CDD using STAR-GRYPHON reduces hypoglycaemia in hyperglycaemic preterm babies treated with insulin independent of the frequency of blood glucose testing.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Design: Multicentre, non-blinded, randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Neonatal intensive care units in New Zealand and Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

138 preterm babies ≤30 weeks' gestation or ≤1500 g at birth who develop hyperglycaemia (two consecutive blood glucose concentrations ≥10 mmol/L, at least 4 hours apart) will be randomised to one of three groups: (1) CDD using the STAR-GRYPHON model-based decision support system: insulin dose and frequency of blood glucose testing advised by STAR-GRYPHON, with a maximum testing interval of 4 hours; (2) bedside titration: insulin dose determined by medical staff, maximum blood glucose testing interval of 4 hours; (3) standard care: insulin dose and frequency of blood glucose testing determined by medical staff. The target range for blood glucose concentrations is 5-8 mmol/L in all groups. A subset of babies will have masked continuous glucose monitoring.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

is the number of babies with one or more episodes of hypoglycaemia (blood glucose concentration <2.6 mmol/L), during treatment with insulin.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol has been approved by New Zealand's Health and Disability Ethics Committee: 14/STH/26. A data safety monitoring committee has been appointed to oversee the trial. Findings will be disseminated to participants and carers, peer-reviewed journals, guideline developers and the public.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

12614000492651.

Insulin kinetics and the Neonatal Intensive Care Insulin-Nutrition-Glucose (NICING) model

BACKGROUND

Models of human glucose-insulin physiology have been developed for a range of uses, with similarly different levels of complexity and accuracy. STAR (Stochastic Targeted) is a model-based approach to glycaemic control. Elevated blood glucose concentrations (hyperglycaemia) are a common complication of stress and prematurity in very premature infants, and have been associated with worsened outcomes and higher mortality. This research identifies and validates the model parameters for model-based glycaemic control in neonatal intensive care.

METHODS

C-peptide, plasma insulin, and BG from a cohort of 41 extremely pre-term (median age 27.2 [26.2-28.7] weeks) and very low birth weight infants (median birth weight 839 [735-1000] g) are used alongside C-peptide kinetic models to identify model parameters associated with insulin kinetics in the NICING (Neonatal Intensive Care Insulin-Nutrition-Glucose) model. A literature analysis is used to determine models of kidney clearance and body fluid compartment volumes. The full, final NICING model is validated by fitting the model to a cohort of 160 glucose, insulin, and nutrition data records from extremely premature infants from two different NICUs (neonatal intensive care units).

RESULTS

Six model parameters related to insulin kinetics were identified. The resulting NICING model is more physiologically descriptive than prior model iterations, including clearance pathways of insulin via the liver and kidney, rather than a lumped parameter. In addition, insulin diffusion between plasma and interstitial spaces is evaluated, with differences in distribution volume taken into consideration for each of these spaces. The NICING model was shown to fit clinical data well, with a low model fit error similar to that of previous model iterations.

CONCLUSIONS

Insulin kinetic parameters have been identified, and the NICING model is presented for glycaemic control neonatal intensive care. The resulting NICING model is more complex and physiologically relevant, with no loss in bedside-identifiability or ability to capture and predict metabolic dynamics.

Brain mass estimation by head circumference and body mass methods in neonatal glycaemic modelling and control

INTRODUCTION

Hyperglycaemia is a common complication of stress and prematurity in extremely low-birth-weight infants. Model-based insulin therapy protocols have the ability to safely improve glycaemic control for this group. Estimating non-insulin-mediated brain glucose uptake by the central nervous system in these models is typically done using population-based body weight models, which may not be ideal.

METHOD

A head circumference-based model that separately treats small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) infants is compared to a body weight model in a retrospective analysis of 48 patients with a median birth weight of 750g and median gestational age of 25 weeks. Estimated brain mass, model-based insulin sensitivity (SI) profiles, and projected glycaemic control outcomes are investigated. SGA infants (5) are also analyzed as a separate cohort.

RESULTS

Across the entire cohort, estimated brain mass deviated by a median 10% between models, with a per-patient median difference in SI of 3.5%. For the SGA group, brain mass deviation was 42%, and per-patient SI deviation 13.7%. In virtual trials, 87-93% of recommended insulin rates were equal or slightly reduced (Δ<0.16mU/h) under the head circumference method, while glycaemic control outcomes showed little change.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that body weight methods are not as accurate as head circumference methods. Head circumference-based estimates may offer improved modelling accuracy and a small reduction in insulin administration, particularly for SGA infants.

On the problem of patient-specific endogenous glucose production in neonates on stochastic targeted glycemic control

BACKGROUND

Both stress and prematurity can induce hyperglycemia in the neonatal intensive care unit, which, in turn, is associated with worsened outcomes. Endogenous glucose production (EGP) is the formation of glucose by the body from substrates and contributes to blood glucose (BG) levels. Due to the inherent fragility of the extremely low birth weight (ELBW) neonates, true fasting EGP cannot be explicitly determined, introducing uncertainty into glycemic models that rely on quantifying glucose sources. Stochastic targeting, or STAR, is one such glycemic control framework.

METHODS

A literature review was carried out to gather metabolic and EGP values on preterm infants with a gestational age (GA) &lt;32 weeks and a birth weight (BW) &lt;2 kg. The data were analyzed for EGP trends with BW, GA, BG, plasma insulin, and glucose infusion (GI) rates. Trends were modeled and compared with a literature-derived range of population constant EGP models using clinically validated virtual trials on retrospective clinical data.

RESULTS

No clear relationship was found for EGP and BW, GA, or plasma insulin. Some evidence of suppression of EGP with increasing GI or BG was seen. Virtual trial results showed that population-constant EGP models fit clinical data best and gave tighter control performance to a target band in virtual trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in EGP cannot easily be quantified, and EGP is sufficiently modeled as a population constant in the neonatal intensive care insulin-nutrition-glucose model. Analysis of the clinical data and fitting error suggests that ELBW hyperglycemic preterm neonates have unsuppressed EGP in the higher range than that seen in literature.

First pilot trial of the STAR-Liege protocol for tight glycemic control in critically ill patients

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits in ICU patients, but been difficult to achieve consistently due to inter- and intra- patient variability that requires more adaptive, patient-specific solutions. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a flexible model-based TGC framework accounting for patient variability with a stochastically derived maximum 5% risk of blood glucose (BG) below 72 mg/dL. This research describes the first clinical pilot trial of the STAR approach and the post-trial analysis of the models and methods that underpin the protocol. The STAR framework works with clinically specified targets and intervention guidelines. The clinically specified glycemic target was 125 mg/dL. Each trial was 24 h with BG measured 1-2 hourly. Two-hourly measurement was used when BG was between 110-135 mg/dL for 3 h. In the STAR approach, each intervention leads to a predicted BG level and outcome range (5-95th percentile) based on a stochastic model of metabolic patient variability. Carbohydrate intake (all sources) was monitored, but not changed from clinical settings except to prevent BG<100 mg/dL when no insulin was given. Insulin infusion rates were limited (6 U/h maximum), with limited increases based on current infusion rate (0.5-2.0 U/h), making this use of the STAR framework an insulin-only TGC approach. Approval was granted by the Ethics Committee of the Medical Faculty of the University of Liege (Liege, Belgium). Nine patient trials were undertaken after obtaining informed consent. There were 205 measurements over all 9 trials. Median [IQR] per-patient results were: BG: 138.5 [130.6-146.0]mg/dL; carbohydrate administered: 2-11 g/h; median insulin:1.3 [0.9-2.4]U/h with a maximum of 6.0 [4.7-6.0]U/h. Median [IQR] time in the desired 110-140 mg/dL band was: 50.0 [31.2-54.2]%. Median model prediction errors ranged: 10-18%, with larger errors due to small meals and other clinical events. The minimum BG was 63 mg/dL and no other measurement was below 72 mg/dL, so only 1 measurement (0.5%) was below the 5% guaranteed minimum risk level. Post-trial analysis showed that patients were more variable than predicted by the stochastic model used for control, resulting in some of the prediction errors seen. Analysis and (validated) virtual trial re-simulating the clinical trial using stochastic models relevant to the patient's particular day of ICU stay were seen to be more accurate in capturing the observed variability. This analysis indicated that equivalent control and safety could be obtained with similar or lower glycemic variability in control using more specific stochastic models. STAR effectively controlled all patients to target. Observed patient variability in response to insulin and thus prediction errors were higher than expected, likely due to the recent insult of cardiac surgery or a major cardiac event, and their immediate recovery. STAR effectively managed this variability with no hypoglycemia. Improved stochastic models will be used to prospectively test these outcomes in further ongoing clinical pilot trials in this and other units.

Pilot study of a model-based approach to blood glucose control in very-low-birthweight neonates

Background

Hyperglycemia often occurs in premature, very low birthweight infants (VLBW) due to immaturity of endogenous regulatory systems and the stress of their condition. Hyperglycemia in neonates has been linked to increased morbidities and mortality and occurs at increasing rates with decreasing birthweight. In this cohort, the emerging use of insulin to manage hyperglycemia has carried a significant risk of hypoglycemia. The efficacy of blood glucose control using a computer metabolic system model to determine insulin infusion rates was assessed in very-low-birth-weight infants.

Methods

Initial short-term 24-hour trials were performed on 8 VLBW infants with hyperglycemia followed by long-term trials of several days performed on 22 infants. Median birthweight was 745 g and 760 g for short-term and long-term trial infants, and median gestational age at birth was 25.6 and 25.4 weeks respectively. Blood glucose control is compared to 21 retrospective patients from the same unit who received insulin infusions determined by sliding scales and clinician intuition. This study was approved by the Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee, New Zealand (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01419873).

Results

Reduction in hyperglycemia towards the target glucose band was achieved safely in all cases during the short-term trials with no hypoglycemic episodes. Lower median blood glucose concentration was achieved during clinical implementation at 6.6 mmol/L (IQR: 5.5 – 8.2 mmol/L, 1,003 measurements), compared to 8.0 mmol/L achieved in similar infants previously (p < 0.01). No significant difference in incidence of hypoglycemia during long-term trials was observed (0.25% vs 0.25%, p = 0.51). Percentage of blood glucose within the 4.0 – 8.0 mmol/L range was increased by 41% compared to the retrospective cohort (68.4% vs 48.4%, p < 0.01).

Conclusions

A computer model that accurately captures the dynamics of neonatal metabolism can provide safe and effective blood glucose control without increasing hypoglycemia.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01419873

Variability of insulin sensitivity during the first 4 days of critical illness: implications for tight glycemic control

Background

Effective tight glycemic control (TGC) can improve outcomes in critical care patients, but it is difficult to achieve consistently. Insulin sensitivity defines the metabolic balance between insulin concentration and insulin-mediated glucose disposal. Hence, variability of insulin sensitivity can cause variable glycemia. This study quantifies and compares the daily evolution of insulin sensitivity level and variability for critical care patients receiving TGC.

Methods

This is a retrospective analysis of data from the SPRINT TGC study involving patients admitted to a mixed medical-surgical ICU between August 2005 and May 2007. Only patients who commenced TGC within 12 hours of ICU admission and spent at least 24 hours on the SPRINT protocol were included (N = 164). Model-based insulin sensitivity (SI) was identified each hour. Absolute level and hour-to-hour percent changes in SI were assessed on cohort and per-patient bases. Levels and variability of SI were compared over time on 24-hour and 6-hour timescales for the first 4 days of ICU stay.

Results

Cohort and per-patient median SI levels increased by 34% and 33% (p < 0.001) between days 1 and 2 of ICU stay. Concomitantly, cohort and per-patient SI variability decreased by 32% and 36% (p < 0.001). For 72% of the cohort, median SI on day 2 was higher than on day 1. The day 1–2 results are the only clear, statistically significant trends across both analyses. Analysis of the first 24 hours using 6-hour blocks of SI data showed that most of the improvement in insulin sensitivity level and variability seen between days 1 and 2 occurred during the first 12–18 hours of day 1.

Conclusions

Critically ill patients have significantly lower and more variable insulin sensitivity on day 1 than later in their ICU stay and particularly during the first 12 hours. This rapid improvement is likely due to the decline of counter-regulatory hormones as the acute phase of critical illness progresses. Clinically, these results suggest that while using TGC protocols with patients during their first few days of ICU stay, extra care should be afforded. Increased measurement frequency, higher target glycemic bands, conservative insulin dosing, and modulation of carbohydrate nutrition should be considered to minimize safely the outcome glycemic variability and reduce the risk of hypoglycemia.

Stochastic targeted (STAR) glycemic control: design, safety, and performance

INTRODUCTION

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to achieve consistently. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a flexible, model-based TGC approach that directly accounts for intra- and interpatient variability with a stochastically derived maximum 5% risk of blood glucose (BG) below 72 mg/dl. This research assesses the safety, efficacy, and clinical burden of a STAR TGC controller modulating both insulin and nutrition inputs in virtual and clinical pilot trials.

METHODS

Clinically validated virtual trials using data from 370 patients in the SPRINT (Specialized Relative Insulin and Nutrition Titration) study were used to design the STAR protocol and test its safety, performance, and required clinical effort prior to clinical pilot trials. Insulin and nutrition interventions were given every 1-3 h as chosen by the nurse to allow them to manage workload. Interventions were designed to maximize the overlap of the model-predicted (5-95(th) percentile) range of BG outcomes with the 72-117 mg/dl band and thus provide a maximum 5% risk of BG <72 mg/dl. Interventions were calculated using clinically validated computer models of human metabolism and its variability in critical illness. Carbohydrate intake (all sources) was selected to maximize intake up to 100% of the American College of Chest Physicians/Society of Critical Care Medicine (ACCP/SCCM) goal (25 kg/kcal/h). Insulin doses were limited (8 U/h maximum), with limited increases based on current rate (0.5-2.0 U/h). Initial clinical pilot trials involved 3 patients covering ~450 h. Approval was granted by the Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee.

RESULTS

Virtual trials indicate that STAR provides similar glycemic control performance to SPRINT with 2-3 h (maximum) measurement intervals. Time in the 72-126 mg/dl and 72-145 mg/dl bands was equivalent for all controllers, indicating that glycemic outcome differences between protocols were only shifted in this range. Safety from hypoglycemia was improved. Importantly, STAR using 2-3 h (maximum) intervention intervals reduced clinical burden up to 30%, which is clinically very significant. Initial clinical trials showed glycemic performance, safety, and management of inter- and intrapatient variability that matched or exceeded the virtual trial results.

CONCLUSIONS

In virtual trials, STAR TGC provided tight control that maximized the likelihood of BG in a clinically specified glycemic band and reduced hypoglycemia with a maximum 5% (or lower) expected risk of light hypoglycemia (BG <72 mg/dl) via model-based management of intra- and interpatient variability. Clinical workload was self-managed and reduced up to 30% compared with SPRINT. Initial pilot clinical trials matched or exceeded these virtual results.

Pilot proof of concept clinical trials of Stochastic Targeted (STAR) glycemic control

Introduction

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to achieve consistently. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a flexible, model-based TGC approach directly accounting for intra- and inter- patient variability with a stochastically derived maximum 5% risk of blood glucose (BG) < 4.0 mmol/L. This research assesses the safety, efficacy, and clinical burden of a STAR TGC controller modulating both insulin and nutrition inputs in pilot trials.

Methods

Seven patients covering 660 hours. Insulin and nutrition interventions are given 1-3 hourly as chosen by the nurse to allow them to manage workload. Interventions are calculated by using clinically validated computer models of human metabolism and its variability in critical illness to maximize the overlap of the model-predicted (5-95^th percentile) range of BG outcomes with the 4.0-6.5 mmol/L band while ensuring a maximum 5% risk of BG < 4.0 mmol/L. Carbohydrate intake (all sources) was selected to maximize intake up to 100% of SCCM/ACCP goal (25 kg/kcal/h). Maximum insulin doses and dose changes were limited for safety. Measurements were made with glucometers. Results are compared to those for the SPRINT study, which reduced mortality 25-40% for length of stay ≥3 days. Written informed consent was obtained for all patients, and approval was granted by the NZ Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee.

Results

A total of 402 measurements were taken over 660 hours (~14/day), because nurses showed a preference for 2-hourly measurements. Median [interquartile range, (IQR)] cohort BG was 5.9 mmol/L [5.2-6.8]. Overall, 63.2%, 75.9%, and 89.8% of measurements were in the 4.0-6.5, 4.0-7.0, and 4.0-8.0 mmol/L bands. There were no hypoglycemic events (BG < 2.2 mmol/L), and the minimum BG was 3.5 mmol/L with 4.5% < 4.4 mmol/L. Per patient, the median [IQR] hours of TGC was 92 h [29-113] using 53 [19-62] measurements (median, ~13/day). Median [IQR] results: BG, 5.9 mmol/L [5.8-6.3]; carbohydrate nutrition, 6.8 g/h [5.5-8.7] (~70% goal feed median); insulin, 2.5 U/h [0.1-5.1]. All patients achieved BG < 6.1 mmol/L. These results match or exceed SPRINT and clinical workload is reduced more than 20%.

Conclusions

STAR TGC modulating insulin and nutrition inputs provided very tight control with minimal variability by managing intra- and inter- patient variability. Performance and safety exceed that of SPRINT, which reduced mortality and cost in the Christchurch ICU. The use of glucometers did not appear to impact the quality of TGC. Finally, clinical workload was self-managed and reduced 20% compared with SPRINT.

Evaluating glycemic control algorithms by computer simulations

BACKGROUND

Numerous guidelines and algorithms exist to achieve glycemic control. Their strengths and weaknesses are difficult to assess without head-to-head comparison in time-consuming clinical trials. We hypothesized that computer simulations may be useful.

METHODS

Two open-label randomized clinical trials were replicated using computer simulations. One study compared performance of the enhanced model predictive control (eMPC) algorithm at two intensive care units in the United Kingdom and Belgium. The other study compared three glucose control algorithms-eMPC, Matias (the absolute glucose protocol), and Bath (the relative glucose change protocol)-in a single intensive care unit. Computer simulations utilized a virtual population of 56 critically ill subjects derived from routine data collected at four European surgical and medical intensive care units.

RESULTS

In agreement with the first clinical study, computer simulations reproduced the main finding and discriminated between the two intensive care units in terms of the sampling interval (1.3 h vs. 1.8 h, United Kingdom vs. Belgium; P < 0.01). Other glucose control metrics were comparable between simulations and clinical results. The principal outcome of the second study was also reproduced. The eMPC demonstrated better performance compared with the Matias and Bath algorithms as assessed by the time when plasma glucose was in the target range between 4.4 and 6.1 mmol/L (65% vs. 43% vs. 42% [P < 0.001], eMPC vs. Matias vs. Bath) without increasing the risk of severe hypoglycemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Computer simulations may provide resource-efficient means for preclinical evaluation of algorithms for glycemic control in the critically ill.

Modeling the glucose regulatory system in extreme preterm infants

BACKGROUND

Premature infants represent a significant proportion of the neonatal intensive care population. Blood glucose homeostasis in this group is often disturbed by immaturity of endogenous regulatory systems and the stress of their condition. Hypo- and hyperglycemia are frequently reported in very low birth weight infants, and more mature infants often experience low levels of glycemia. A model capturing the unique fundamental dynamics of the neonatal glucose regulatory system could be used to develop better blood glucose control methods.

METHODS

A metabolic system model is adapted from adult critical care to the unique physiological case of the neonate. Integral-based fitting methods were used to identify time-varying insulin sensitivity and non-insulin mediated glucose uptake profiles. The clinically important predictive ability of the model was assessed by assuming insulin sensitivity was constant over prediction intervals of 1, 2 and 4h forward and comparing model-simulated versus actual clinical glucose values for all recorded interventions. The clinical data included 1091 glucose measurements over 3567 total patient hours, along with all associated insulin and nutritional infusion data, for N=25 total cases. Ethics approval was obtained from the Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee for this study.

RESULTS

The identified model had a median absolute percentage error of 2.4% [IQR: 0.9-4.8%] between model-fitted and clinical glucose values. Median absolute prediction errors at 1-, 2- and 4-h intervals were 5.2% [IQR: 2.5-10.3%], 9.4% [IQR: 4.5-18.4%] and 13.6% [IQR: 6.3-27.6%] respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The model accurately captures and predicts the fundamental dynamic behaviors of the neonatal metabolism well enough for effective clinical decision support in glycemic control. The adaptation from adult to a neonatal case is based on the data from the literature. Low prediction errors and very low fitting errors indicate that the fundamental dynamics of glucose metabolism in both premature neonates and critical care adults can be described by similar mathematical models.

Physiological modeling, tight glycemic control, and the ICU clinician: what are models and how can they affect practice?

Critically ill patients are highly variable in their response to care and treatment. This variability and the search for improved outcomes have led to a significant increase in the use of protocolized care to reduce variability in care. However, protocolized care does not address the variability of outcome due to inter- and intra-patient variability, both in physiological state, and the response to disease and treatment. This lack of patient-specificity defines the opportunity for patient-specific approaches to diagnosis, care, and patient management, which are complementary to, and fit within, protocolized approaches.Computational models of human physiology offer the potential, with clinical data, to create patient-specific models that capture a patient's physiological status. Such models can provide new insights into patient condition by turning a series of sometimes confusing clinical data into a clear physiological picture. More directly, they can track patient-specific conditions and thus provide new means of diagnosis and opportunities for optimising therapy.This article presents the concept of model-based therapeutics, the use of computational models in clinical medicine and critical care in specific, as well as its potential clinical advantages, in a format designed for the clinical perspective. The review is presented in terms of a series of questions and answers. These aspects directly address questions concerning what makes a model, how it is made patient-specific, what it can be used for, its limitations and, importantly, what constitutes sufficient validation.To provide a concrete foundation, the concepts are presented broadly, but the details are given in terms of a specific case example. Specifically, tight glycemic control (TGC) is an area where inter- and intra-patient variability can dominate the quality of care control and care received from any given protocol. The overall review clearly shows the concept and significant clinical potential of using computational models in critical care medicine.

Tight glycemic control in critical care--the leading role of insulin sensitivity and patient variability: a review and model-based analysis

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has emerged as a major research focus in critical care due to its potential to simultaneously reduce both mortality and costs. However, repeating initial successful TGC trials that reduced mortality and other outcomes has proven difficult with more failures than successes. Hence, there has been growing debate over the necessity of TGC, its goals, the risk of severe hypoglycemia, and target cohorts. This paper provides a review of TGC via new analyses of data from several clinical trials, including SPRINT, Glucontrol and a recent NICU study. It thus provides both a review of the problem and major background factors driving it, as well as a novel model-based analysis designed to examine these dynamics from a new perspective. Using these clinical results and analysis, the goal is to develop new insights that shed greater light on the leading factors that make TGC difficult and inconsistent, as well as the requirements they thus impose on the design and implementation of TGC protocols. A model-based analysis of insulin sensitivity using data from three different critical care units, comprising over 75,000h of clinical data, is used to analyse variability in metabolic dynamics using a clinically validated model-based insulin sensitivity metric (S(I)). Variation in S(I) provides a new interpretation and explanation for the variable results seen (across cohorts and studies) in applying TGC. In particular, significant intra- and inter-patient variability in insulin resistance (1/S(I)) is seen be a major confounder that makes TGC difficult over diverse cohorts, yielding variable results over many published studies and protocols. Further factors that exacerbate this variability in glycemic outcome are found to include measurement frequency and whether a protocol is blind to carbohydrate administration.

Development of blood glucose control for extremely premature infants

Extremely premature neonates often experience hyperglycaemia, which has been linked to increased mortality and worsened outcomes. Insulin therapy can assist in controlling blood glucose levels and promoting needed growth. This study presents the development of a model-based stochastic targeted controller designed to adapt insulin infusion rates to match the unique and changing metabolic state and control parameters of the neonate. Long-term usage of targeted BG control requires successfully forecasting variations in neonatal metabolic state, accounting for differences in clinical practices between units, and demonstrating robustness to errors that can occur in everyday clinical usage. Simulation studies were used to evaluate controller ability to target several common BG ranges and evaluate controller sensitivity to missed BG measurements and delays in control interventions on a virtual patient cohort of 25 infants developed from retrospective data. Initial clinical pilot trials indicated model performance matched expected performance from simulations. Stochastic targeted glucose control developed using validated patient-specific virtual trials can yield effective protocols for this cohort. Long-term trials show fundamental success, however clinical interface design appears as a critical factor to ensuring good compliance and thus good control.

Prediction of glucose concentration in post-cardiothoracic surgery patients using continuous glucose monitoring

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the predictive capability of simple linear extrapolation of continuous glucose data in postsurgical patients undergoing intensive care.

METHODS

Twenty patients, both with or without an established diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, scheduled to undergo cardiothoracic surgery were included. Glucose was continuously monitored in the intensive care unit with a microdialysis-based subcutaneous glucose monitoring system. The prediction horizon (PH) with respect to a given glucose reading was calculated by extrapolating the linear trend of the glucose signal and subjected to both analytical and clinical assessment (by calculation of the average duration of consecutive positive and negative glucose signal trends, the root mean squared error [RMSE], and by insulin titration error grid [ITEG] analysis, respectively).

RESULTS

In total, 609 h of continuous glucose data from 17 patients were analyzed. The average duration of consecutive positive and negative glucose signal trends was 7.97 (3.99-19.98) min (median, interquartile range). An increase in the RMSE of 0.5 mmol/L (9 mg/dL) was associated with a PH of 37 min. A strong increase in the number of data points in the unacceptable violation zone of the ITEG was associated with a PH of approximately 20 min.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data provide evidence that simple linear extrapolation of glucose trend information obtained by continuous glucose monitoring can be used to predict the course of glycemia in critically ill patients for up to 20-30 min. This "glimpse into the future" can be used to proactively prevent the occurrence of adverse events.

Validation of a model-based virtual trials method for tight glycemic control in intensive care

BACKGROUND

In-silico virtual patients and trials offer significant advantages in cost, time and safety for designing effective tight glycemic control (TGC) protocols. However, no such method has fully validated the independence of virtual patients (or resulting clinical trial predictions) from the data used to create them. This study uses matched cohorts from a TGC clinical trial to validate virtual patients and in-silico virtual trial models and methods.

METHODS

Data from a 211 patient subset of the Glucontrol trial in Liege, Belgium. Glucontrol-A (N = 142) targeted 4.4-6.1 mmol/L and Glucontrol-B (N = 69) targeted 7.8-10.0 mmol/L. Cohorts were matched by APACHE II score, initial BG, age, weight, BMI and sex (p > 0.25). Virtual patients are created by fitting a clinically validated model to clinical data, yielding time varying insulin sensitivity profiles (SI(t)) that drives in-silico patients.Model fit and intra-patient (forward) prediction errors are used to validate individual in-silico virtual patients. Self-validation (tests A protocol on Group-A virtual patients; and B protocol on B virtual patients) and cross-validation (tests A protocol on Group-B virtual patients; and B protocol on A virtual patients) are used in comparison to clinical data to assess ability to predict clinical trial results.

RESULTS

Model fit errors were small (<0.25%) for all patients, indicating model fitness. Median forward prediction errors were: 4.3, 2.8 and 3.5% for Group-A, Group-B and Overall (A+B), indicating individual virtual patients were accurate representations of real patients. SI and its variability were similar between cohorts indicating they were metabolically similar.Self and cross validation results were within 1-10% of the clinical data for both Group-A and Group-B. Self-validation indicated clinically insignificant errors due to model and/or clinical compliance. Cross-validation clearly showed that virtual patients enabled by identified patient-specific SI(t) profiles can accurately predict the performance of independent and different TGC protocols.

CONCLUSIONS

This study fully validates these virtual patients and in silico virtual trial methods, and clearly shows they can accurately simulate, in advance, the clinical results of a TGC protocol, enabling rapid in silico protocol design and optimization. These outcomes provide the first rigorous validation of a virtual in-silico patient and virtual trials methodology.

Year in review 2009: Critical Care--metabolism

Novel insights into the metabolic alterations of critical illness were published in Critical Care in 2009. The association between early hypoglycaemia/high glycemic variability and poor outcome was confirmed. Improvements in the understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms of stress hyperglycemia and potential progress in the bedside management of glucose control were presented. With regard to enteral nutrition, some alterations of gastrointestinal physiology were better delineated. The relationship between the achievement of nutritional goals and outcomes was further investigated. Finally, understanding of some critical-illness-related endocrine and neuromuscular disorders improved through new experimental and clinical findings.