Warmer temperatures reduce the influence of an important keystone predator

The endemic kelp Lessonia corrugata is being pushed above its thermal limits in an ocean warming hotspot

Kelps are in global decline due to climate change, which includes ocean warming. To identify vulnerable species, we need to identify their tolerances to increasing temperatures and determine whether tolerances are altered by co-occurring drivers such as inorganic nutrient levels. This is particularly important for those species with restricted distributions, which may already be experiencing thermal stress. To identify thermal tolerance of the range-restricted kelp Lessonia corrugata, we conducted a laboratory experiment on juvenile sporophytes to measure performance (growth, photosynthesis) across its thermal range (4-22°C). We determined the upper thermal limit for growth and photosynthesis to be ~22-23°C, with a thermal optimum of ~16°C. To determine if elevated inorganic nitrogen availability could enhance thermal tolerance, we compared the performance of juveniles under low (4.5 μmol · d-1) and high (90 μmol · d-1) nitrate conditions at and above the thermal optimum (16-23.5°C). Nitrate enrichment did not enhance thermal performance at temperatures above the optimum but did lead to elevated growth rates at the thermal optimum. Our results indicate L. corrugata is likely to be extremely susceptible to moderate ocean warming and marine heatwaves. Peak sea surface temperatures during summer in eastern and northeastern Tasmania can reach up to 20-21°C, and climate projections suggest that L. corrugata's thermal limit will be regularly exceeded by 2050 as southeastern Australia is a global ocean-warming hotspot. By identifying the upper thermal limit of L. corrugata, we have taken a critical step in predicting the future of the species in a warming climate.

Integrating animal behaviour into research on multiple environmental stressors: a conceptual framework

While a large body of research has focused on the physiological effects of multiple environmental stressors, how behavioural and life-history plasticity mediate multiple-stressor effects remains underexplored. Behavioural plasticity can not only drive organism-level responses to stressors directly but can also mediate physiological responses. Here, we provide a conceptual framework incorporating four fundamental trade-offs that explicitly link animal behaviour to life-history-based pathways for energy allocation, shaping the impact of multiple stressors on fitness. We first address how small-scale behavioural changes can either mediate or drive conflicts between the effects of multiple stressors and alternative physiological responses. We then discuss how animal behaviour gives rise to three additional understudied and interrelated trade-offs: balancing the benefits and risks of obtaining the energy needed to cope with stressors, allocation of energy between life-history traits and stressor responses, and larger-scale escape from stressors in space or time via large-scale movement or dormancy. Finally, we outline how these trade-offs interactively affect fitness and qualitative ecological outcomes resulting from multiple stressors. Our framework suggests that explicitly considering animal behaviour should enrich our mechanistic understanding of stressor effects, help explain extensive context dependence observed in these effects, and highlight promising avenues for future empirical and theoretical research.

Ecological Leverage Points: Species Interactions Amplify the Physiological Effects of Global Environmental Change in the Ocean

Marine ecosystems are increasingly impacted by global environmental changes, including warming temperatures, deoxygenation, and ocean acidification. Marine scientists recognize intuitively that these environmental changes are translated into community changes via organismal physiology. However, physiology remains a black box in many ecological studies, and coexisting species in a community are often assumed to respond similarly to environmental stressors. Here, we emphasize how greater attention to physiology can improve our ability to predict the emergent effects of ocean change. In particular, understanding shifts in the intensity and outcome of species interactions such as competition and predation requires a sharpened focus on physiological variation among community members and the energetic demands and trophic mismatches generated by environmental changes. Our review also highlights how key species interactions that are sensitive to environmental change can operate as ecological leverage points through which small changes in abiotic conditions are amplified into large changes in marine ecosystems.

Trait gradients inform predictions of seagrass meadows changes to future warming

Comparing populations across temperature gradients can inform how global warming will impact the structure and function of ecosystems. Shoot density, morphometry and productivity of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica to temperature variation was quantified at eight locations in Sardinia (western Mediterranean Sea) along a natural sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. The locations are spanned for a narrow range of latitude (1.5°), allowing the minimization of the effect of eventual photoperiod variability. Mean SST predicted P. oceanica meadow structure, with increased temperature correlated with higher shoot density, but lower leaf and rhizome width, and rhizome biomass. Chlorophyll a (Chl-a) strongly impacted seagrass traits independent of SST. Disentangling the effects of SST and Chl-a on seagrass meadow shoot density revealed that they work independently, but in the same direction with potential synergism. Space-for-time substitution predicts that global warming will trigger denser seagrass meadows with slender shoots, fewer leaves, and strongly impact seagrass ecosystem. Future investigations should evaluate if global warming will erode the ecosystem services provided by seagrass meadows.

Disease-driven mass mortality event leads to widespread extirpation and variable recovery potential of a marine predator across the eastern Pacific

The prevalence of disease-driven mass mortality events is increasing, but our understanding of spatial variation in their magnitude, timing and triggers are often poorly resolved. Here, we use a novel range-wide dataset comprised 48 810 surveys to quantify how sea star wasting disease affected Pycnopodia helianthoides, the sunflower sea star, across its range from Baja California, Mexico to the Aleutian Islands, USA. We found that the outbreak occurred more rapidly, killed a greater percentage of the population and left fewer survivors in the southern half of the species's range. Pycnopodia now appears to be functionally extinct (greater than 99.2% declines) from Baja California, Mexico to Cape Flattery, Washington, USA and exhibited severe declines (greater than 87.8%) from the Salish Sea to the Gulf of Alaska. The importance of temperature in predicting Pycnopodia distribution rose more than fourfold after the outbreak, suggesting latitudinal variation in outbreak severity may stem from an interaction between disease severity and warmer waters. We found no evidence of population recovery in the years since the outbreak. Natural recovery in the southern half of the range is unlikely over the short term. Thus, assisted recovery will probably be required to restore the functional role of this predator on ecologically relevant time scales.

Loss of predation risk from apex predators can exacerbate marine tropicalization caused by extreme climatic events

Extreme climatic events (ECEs) and predator removal represent some of the most widespread stressors to ecosystems. Though species interactions can alter ecological effects of climate change (and vice versa), it is less understood whether, when and how predator removal can interact with ECEs to exacerbate their effects. Understanding the circumstances under which such interactions might occur is critical because predator loss is widespread and ECEs can generate rapid phase shifts in ecosystems which can ultimately lead to tropicalization. Our goal was to determine whether loss of predation risk may be an important mechanism governing ecosystem responses to extreme events, and whether the effects of such events, such as tropicalization, can occur even when species range shifts do not. Specifically, our goal was to experimentally simulate the loss of an apex predator, the tiger shark Galeocerdo cuvier effects on a recently damaged seagrass ecosystem of Shark Bay, Australia by applying documented changes to risk-sensitive grazing of dugong Dugong dugon herbivores. Using a 16-month-field experiment established in recently disturbed seagrass meadows, we used previous estimates of risk-sensitive dugong foraging behaviour to simulate altered risk-sensitive foraging densities and strategies of dugongs consistent with apex predator loss, and tracked seagrass responses to the simulated grazing. Grazing treatments targeted and removed tropical seagrasses, which declined. However, like in other mixed-bed habitats where dugongs forage, treatments also incidentally accelerated temperate seagrass losses, revealing that herbivore behavioural changes in response to predator loss can exacerbate ECE and promote tropicalization, even without range expansions or introductions of novel species. Our results suggest that changes to herbivore behaviours triggered by loss of predation risk can undermine ecological resilience to ECEs, particularly where long-lived herbivores are abundant. By implication, ongoing losses of apex predators may combine with increasingly frequent ECEs to amplify climate change impacts across diverse ecosystems and large spatial scales.

Detrimental impacts of climate change may be exacerbated by density-dependent population regulation in blue mussels

The climate on our planet is changing and the range distributions of organisms are shifting in response. In aquatic environments, species might not be able to redistribute poleward or into deeper water when temperatures rise because of barriers, reduced light availability, altered water chemistry or any combination of these. How species respond to climate change may depend on physiological adaptability, but also on the population dynamics of the species. Density dependence is a ubiquitous force that governs population dynamics and regulates population growth, yet its connections to the impacts of climate change remain little known, especially in marine studies. Reductions in density below an environmental carrying capacity may cause compensatory increases in demographic parameters and population growth rate, hence masking the impacts of climate change on populations. On the other hand, climate-driven deterioration of conditions may reduce environmental carrying capacities, making compensation less likely and populations more susceptible to the effects of stochastic processes. Here we investigate the effects of climate change on Baltic blue mussels using a 17-year dataset on population density. Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we investigate the impacts of climate change, assess the magnitude and effects of density dependence, and project the likelihood of population decline by the year 2030. Our findings show negative impacts of warmer and less saline waters, both outcomes of climate change. We also show that density dependence increases the likelihood of population decline by subjecting the population to the detrimental effects of stochastic processes (i.e. low densities where random bad years can cause local extinction, negating the possibility for random good years to offset bad years). We highlight the importance of understanding, and accounting for both density dependence and climate variation when predicting the impact of climate change on keystone species, such as the Baltic blue mussel.

Macroalgal forest vs sea urchin barren: Patterns of macro-zoobenthic diversity in a large-scale Mediterranean study

The study aimed at contributing to the knowledge of alternative stable states by evaluating the differences of mobile and sessile macro-zoobenthic assemblages between sea urchin barrens and macroalgal forests in coastal Mediterranean systems considering a large spatial scale. Six sites (100 s km apart) were selected: Croatia, Montenegro, Sicily (Italy), Sardinia (Italy), Tuscany (Italy), and Balearic Islands (Spain). A total of 531 taxa, 404 mobile and 127 sessile macro-invertebrates were recorded. Overall, 496 and 201 taxa were found in macroalgal forests and in barrens, respectively. The results of this large-scale descriptive study have met the expectation of lower macrofauna complexity and diversity in barrens rather than in macroalgal forests, and have allowed estimating the differences in levels of diversity and the consistency of variability across Mediterranean sites. Some peculiar patterns in barrens, related to both abundance of specific taxa and to high values of beta diversity, have been evidenced.

Trophic redundancy and predator size class structure drive differences in kelp forest ecosystem dynamics

Ecosystems are changing at alarming rates because of climate change and a wide variety of other anthropogenic stressors. These stressors have the potential to cause phase shifts to less productive ecosystems. A major challenge for ecologists is to identify ecosystem attributes that enhance resilience and can buffer systems from shifts to less desirable alternative states. In this study, we used the Northern Channel Islands, California, as a model kelp forest ecosystem that had been perturbed from the loss of an important sea star predator due to a sea star wasting disease. To determine the mechanisms that prevent phase shifts from productive kelp forests to less productive urchin barrens, we compared pre- and postdisease predator assemblages as predictors of purple urchin densities. We found that prior to the onset of the disease outbreak, the sunflower sea star exerted strong predation pressures and was able to suppress purple urchin populations effectively. After the disease outbreak, which functionally extirpated the sunflower star, we found that the ecosystem response-urchin and algal abundances-depended on the abundance and/or size of remaining predator species. Inside Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), the large numbers and sizes of other urchin predators suppressed purple urchin populations resulting in kelp and understory algal growth. Outside of the MPAs, where these alternative urchin predators are fished, less abundant, and smaller, urchin populations grew dramatically in the absence of sunflower stars resulting in less kelp at these locations. Our results demonstrate that protected trophic redundancy inside MPAs creates a net of stability that could limit kelp forest ecosystem phase shifts to less desirable, alternative states when perturbed. This highlights the importance of harboring diversity and managing predator guilds.

Climate and fishing drive regime shifts in consumer-mediated nutrient cycling in kelp forests

Globally, anthropogenic pressures are reducing the abundances of marine species and altering ecosystems through modification of trophic interactions. Yet, consumer declines also disrupt important bottom-up processes, like nutrient recycling, which are critical for ecosystem functioning. Consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics (CND) is now considered a major biogeochemical component of most ecosystems, but lacking long-term studies, it is difficult to predict how CND will respond to accelerating disturbances in the wake of global change. To aid such predictions, we coupled empirical ammonium excretion rates with an 18-year time series of the standing biomass of common benthic macroinvertebrates in southern California kelp forests. This time series of excretion rates encompassed an extended period of extreme ocean warming, disease outbreaks, and the abolishment of fishing at two of our study sites, allowing us to assess kelp forest CND across a wide range of environmental conditions. At their peak, reef invertebrates supplied an average of 18.3 ± 3.0 µmol NH4 +  m-2  hr-1 to kelp forests when sea stars were regionally abundant, but dropped to 3.5 ± 1.0 µmol NH4 +  m-2  hr-1 following their mass mortality due to disease during a prolonged period of extreme warming. However, a coincident increase in the abundance of the California spiny lobster, Palinurus interupptus (Randall, 1840), likely in response to both reduced fishing and a warmer ocean, compensated for much of the recycled ammonium lost to sea star mortality. Both lobsters and sea stars are widely recognized as key predators that can profoundly influence community structure in benthic marine systems. Our study is the first to demonstrate their importance in nutrient cycling, thus expanding their roles in the ecosystem. Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of warming events, and rising human populations are intensifying fishing pressure in coastal ecosystems worldwide. Our study documents how these projected global changes can drive regime shifts in CND and fundamentally alter a critical ecosystem function.

Artificial light pollution influences behavioral and physiological traits in a keystone predator species, Concholepas concholepas

Artificial Light At Night (ALAN) is an increasing global problem that, despite being widely recognized in terrestrial systems, has been studied much less in marine habitats. In this study we investigated the effect of ALAN on behavioral and physiological traits of Concholepas concholepas, an important keystone species of the south-eastern Pacific coast. We used juveniles collected in intertidal habitats that had not previously been exposed to ALAN. In the laboratory we exposed them to two treatments: darkness and white LED (Lighting Emitting Diodes) to test for the impacts of ALAN on prey-searching behavior, self-righting time and metabolism. In the field, the distribution of juveniles was observed during daylight-hours to determine whether C. concholepas preferred shaded or illuminated microhabitats. Moreover, we compared the abundance of juveniles collected during day- and night-time hours. The laboratory experiments demonstrated that juveniles of C. concholepas seek out and choose their prey more efficiently in darkened areas. White LED illuminated conditions increased righting times and metabolism. Field surveys indicated that, during daylight hours, juveniles were more abundant in shaded micro-habitats than in illuminated ones. However, during darkness hours, individuals were not seen to aggregate in any particular microhabitats. We conclude that the exposure to ALAN might disrupt important behavioral and physiological traits of small juveniles in this species which, as a mechanism to avoid visual predators, are mainly active at night. It follows that ALAN in coastal areas might modify the entire community structure of intertidal habitats by altering the behavior of this keystone species.

Disease epidemic and a marine heat wave are associated with the continental-scale collapse of a pivotal predator (Pycnopodia helianthoides)

Multihost infectious disease outbreaks have endangered wildlife, causing extinction of frogs and endemic birds, and widespread declines of bats, corals, and abalone. Since 2013, a sea star wasting disease has affected >20 sea star species from Mexico to Alaska. The common, predatory sunflower star (Pycnopodia helianthoides), shown to be highly susceptible to sea star wasting disease, has been extirpated across most of its range. Diver surveys conducted in shallow nearshore waters (n = 10,956; 2006-2017) from California to Alaska and deep offshore (55 to 1280 m) trawl surveys from California to Washington (n = 8968; 2004-2016) reveal 80 to 100% declines across a ~3000-km range. Furthermore, timing of peak declines in nearshore waters coincided with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures. The rapid, widespread decline of this pivotal subtidal predator threatens its persistence and may have large ecosystem-level consequences.

Sudden collapse of a mesopredator reveals its complementary role in mediating rocky reef regime shifts

While changes in the abundance of keystone predators can have cascading effects resulting in regime shifts, the role of mesopredators in these processes remains underexplored. We conducted annual surveys of rocky reef communities that varied in the recovery of a keystone predator (sea otter, Enhydra lutris) and the mass mortality of a mesopredator (sunflower sea star, Pycnopodia helianthoides) due to an infectious wasting disease. By fitting a population model to empirical data, we show that sea otters had the greatest impact on the mortality of large sea urchins, but that Pycnopodia decline corresponded to a 311% increase in medium urchins and a 30% decline in kelp densities. Our results reveal that predator complementarity in size-selective prey consumption strengthens top-down control on urchins, affecting the resilience of alternative reef states by reinforcing the resilience of kelp forests and eroding the resilience of urchin barrens. We reveal previously underappreciated species interactions within a 'classic' trophic cascade and regime shift, highlighting the critical role of middle-level predators in mediating rocky reef state transitions.

Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change: Potential and limitations

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems and their biota, resulting in range shifts, novel interactions, food web alterations, changed intensities of host-parasite interactions, and extinctions. An increasing number of studies have documented evolutionary changes in traits such as phenology and thermal tolerance. In this opinion paper, we argue that, while evolutionary responses have the potential to provide a buffer against extinctions or range shifts, a number of constraints and complexities blur this simple prediction. First, there are limits to evolutionary potential both in terms of genetic variation and demographic effects, and these limits differ strongly among taxa and populations. Second, there can be costs associated with genetic adaptation, such as a reduced evolutionary potential towards other (human-induced) environmental stressors or direct fitness costs due to tradeoffs. Third, the differential capacity of taxa to genetically respond to climate change results in novel interactions because different organism groups respond to a different degree with local compared to regional (dispersal and range shift) responses. These complexities result in additional changes in the selection pressures on populations. We conclude that evolution can provide an initial buffer against climate change for some taxa and populations but does not guarantee their survival. It does not necessarily result in reduced extinction risks across the range of taxa in a region or continent. Yet, considering evolution is crucial, as it is likely to strongly change how biota will respond to climate change and will impact which taxa will be the winners or losers at the local, metacommunity and regional scales.

Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffers impacts of ocean warming on predator-prey interactions

Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter important predator-prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugia for prey. We evaluated the effect of ocean warming on interactions between four important piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examining species overlap under historical conditions (1968-2014) and with a doubling in CO₂ . Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator-prey interactions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or prey alone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we found that both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of prey species' range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exert top-down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dogfish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance as predators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod that began with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, but this loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores with contrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within the piscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marine ecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience.