Related herbivore species show similar temporal dynamics

Disproportionate declines of formerly abundant species underlie insect loss

Studies have reported widespread declines in terrestrial insect abundances in recent years1-4, but trends in other biodiversity metrics are less clear-cut5-7. Here we examined long-term trends in 923 terrestrial insect assemblages monitored in 106 studies, and found concomitant declines in abundance and species richness. For studies that were resolved to species level (551 sites in 57 studies), we observed a decline in the number of initially abundant species through time, but not in the number of very rare species. At the population level, we found that species that were most abundant at the start of the time series showed the strongest average declines (corrected for regression-to-the-mean effects). Rarer species were, on average, also declining, but these were offset by increases of other species. Our results suggest that the observed decreases in total insect abundance2 can mostly be explained by widespread declines of formerly abundant species. This counters the common narrative that biodiversity loss is mostly characterized by declines of rare species8,9. Although our results suggest that fundamental changes are occurring in insect assemblages, it is important to recognize that they represent only trends from those locations for which sufficient long-term data are available. Nevertheless, given the importance of abundant species in ecosystems10, their general declines are likely to have broad repercussions for food webs and ecosystem functioning.

Long-term abundance trends of insect taxa are only weakly correlated

Changes in the abundances of animals, such as with the ongoing concern about insect declines, are often assumed to be general across taxa. However, this assumption is largely untested. Here, we used a database of assemblage-wide long-term insect and arachnid monitoring to compare abundance trends among co-occurring pairs of taxa. We show that 60% of co-occurring taxa qualitatively showed long-term trends in the same direction-either both increasing or both decreasing. However, in terms of magnitude, temporal trends were only weakly correlated (mean freshwater r = 0.05 (±0.03), mean terrestrial r = 0.12 (±0.09)). The strongest correlation was between trends of beetles and those of moths/butterflies (r = 0.26). Overall, even though there is some support for directional similarity in temporal trends, we find that changes in the abundance of one taxon provide little information on the changes of other taxa. No clear candidate for umbrella or indicator taxa emerged from our analysis. We conclude that obtaining a better picture of changes in insect abundances will require monitoring of multiple taxa, which remains uncommon, especially in the terrestrial realm.

Meta-analysis reveals declines in terrestrial but increases in freshwater insect abundances

Recent case studies showing substantial declines of insect abundances have raised alarm, but how widespread such patterns are remains unclear. We compiled data from 166 long-term surveys of insect assemblages across 1676 sites to investigate trends in insect abundances over time. Overall, we found considerable variation in trends even among adjacent sites but an average decline of terrestrial insect abundance by ~9% per decade and an increase of freshwater insect abundance by ~11% per decade. Both patterns were largely driven by strong trends in North America and some European regions. We found some associations with potential drivers (e.g., land-use drivers), and trends in protected areas tended to be weaker. Our findings provide a more nuanced view of spatiotemporal patterns of insect abundance trends than previously suggested.

Host plant phenology, insect outbreaks and herbivore communities - The importance of timing

Climate change may alter the dynamics of outbreak species by changing the phenological synchrony between herbivores and their host plants. As host plant phenology has a genotypic component that may interact with climate, infestation levels among genotypes might change accordingly. When the outbreaking herbivore is active early in the season, its infestation levels may also leave a detectable imprint on herbivores colonizing the plant later in the season. In this study, we first investigated how the spring phenology and genotype of Quercus robur influenced the density of the spring-active, outbreaking leaf miner Acrocercops brongniardellus. We then assessed how intraspecific density affected the performance of A. brongniardellus and how oak genotype and density of A. brongniardellus affected the insect herbivore community. We found that Q. robur individuals of late spring phenology were more strongly infested by A. brongniardellus. Conspecific pupae on heavily infested oaks tended to be lighter, and fewer heterospecific insect herbivores colonized the oak later in the season. Beyond its effects through phenology, plant genotype left an imprint on herbivore species richness and on two insect herbivores. Our results suggest a chain of knock-on effects from plant phenology, through the outbreaking species to the insect herbivore community. Given the finding of how phenological synchrony between the outbreak species and its host plant influences infestation levels, a shift in synchrony may then change outbreak dynamics and cause cascading effects on the insect community.