Weak spatiotemporal response of prey to predation risk in a freely interacting system

Energetic trade-offs in migration decision-making, reproductive effort and subsequent parental care in a long-distance migratory bird

Migratory species trade-off long-distance movement with survival and reproduction, but the spatio-temporal scales at which these decisions occur are relatively unknown. Technological and statistical advances allow fine-scale study of animal decision-making, improving our understanding of possible causes and therefore conservation management. We quantified effects of reproductive preparation during spring migration on subsequent breeding outcomes, breeding outcomes on autumn migration characteristics and autumn migration characteristics on subsequent parental survival in Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris). These are long-distance migratory birds with an approximately 50% population decline from 1999 to 2022. We deployed GPS-acceleration devices on adult females to quantify up to 5 years of individual decision-making throughout the annual cycle. Weather and habitat-use affected time spent feeding and overall dynamic body acceleration (i.e. energy expenditure) during spring and autumn. Geese that expended less energy and fed longer during spring were more likely to successfully reproduce. Geese with offspring expended more energy and fed for less time during autumn, potentially representing adverse fitness consequences of breeding. These behavioural comparisons among Greenland white-fronted geese improve our understanding of fitness trade-offs underlying abundance. We provide a reproducible framework for full annual cycle modelling using location and behaviour data, applicable to similarly studied migratory animals.

Same place, different time, head up: Multiple antipredator responses to a recolonizing apex predator

Prey adjust their antipredator behavioral tactics to minimize the risk of an encounter with predators. Spatiotemporal responses of prey to predators have been reported, but the nature of antipredator response is not ubiquitous and it is the object of increasing interest, especially considering the recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe, and the potential for behavioral antipredator responses to elicit consequences at the ecosystem level. We have tested multiple antipredator responses by fallow deer Dama dama to wolf Canis lupus in a Mediterranean protected area recently recolonized by this apex predator. Through intensive camera trapping, we tested for temporal and spatial association between predator and prey, and we have also studied deer vigilance in forest habitats where focal observations are usually impossible. Wolf detection rates were spatially associated with those of fallow deer. Accordingly, no evidence was found for fallow deer avoiding sites with higher predator detection rates. Temporal activity patterns were significantly different between the 2 species, with the wolf being mainly nocturnal whereas fallow deer was active especially during daylight. A comparison with a preliminary study strongly suggests an increase in the diurnal activity of fallow deer along with the stabilization of wolf presence in the area. Both the rate and the duration of vigilance of female fallow deer increased with the local frequency of wolf activity. We suggest an antipredator response based on temporal-rather than spatial-avoidance, as well as increased vigilance.

When death comes: linking predator-prey activity patterns to timing of mortality to understand predation risk

The assumption that activity and foraging are risky for prey underlies many predator-prey theories and has led to the use of predator-prey activity overlap as a proxy of predation risk. However, the simultaneous measures of prey and predator activity along with timing of predation required to test this assumption have not been available. Here, we used accelerometry data on snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) to determine activity patterns of prey and predators and match these to precise timing of predation. Surprisingly we found that lynx kills of hares were as likely to occur during the day when hares were inactive as at night when hares were active. We also found that activity rates of hares were not related to the chance of predation at daily and weekly scales, whereas lynx activity rates positively affected the diel pattern of lynx predation on hares and their weekly kill rates of hares. Our findings suggest that predator-prey diel activity overlap may not always be a good proxy of predation risk, and highlight a need for examining the link between predation and spatio-temporal behaviour of predator and prey to improve our understanding of how predator-prey behavioural interactions drive predation risk.

Interactions between carnivore species: limited spatiotemporal partitioning between apex predator and smaller carnivores in a Mediterranean protected area

BACKGROUND

There is need of information on ecological interactions that keystone species such as apex predators establish in ecosystems recently recolonised. Interactions among carnivore species have the potential to influence community-level processes, with consequences for ecosystem dynamics. Although avoidance of apex predators by smaller carnivores has been reported, there is increasing evidence that the potential for competitive-to-facilitative interactions is context-dependent. In a protected area recently recolonised by the wolf Canis lupus and hosting abundant wild prey (3 ungulate species, 20-30 individuals/km2, together), we used 5-year food habit analyses and 3-year camera trapping to (i) investigate the role of mesocarnivores (4 species) in the wolf diet; (ii) test for temporal, spatial, and fine-scale spatiotemporal association between mesocarnivores and the wolf.

RESULTS

Wolf diet was dominated by large herbivores (86% occurrences, N = 2201 scats), with mesocarnivores occurring in 2% scats. We collected 12,808 carnivore detections over > 19,000 camera trapping days. We found substantial (i.e., generally ≥ 0.75, 0-1 scale) temporal overlap between mesocarnivores-in particular red fox-and the wolf, with no support for negative temporal or spatial associations between mesocarnivore and wolf detection rates. All the species were nocturnal/crepuscular and results suggested a minor role of human activity in modifying interspecific spatiotemporal partitioning.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that the local great availability of large prey to wolves limited negative interactions towards smaller carnivores, thus reducing the potential for spatiotemporal avoidance. Our study emphasises that avoidance patterns leading to substantial spatiotemporal partitioning are not ubiquitous in carnivore guilds.

A phenology of fear: Investigating scale and seasonality in predator-prey games between wolves and white-tailed deer

Predators and prey engage in games where each player must counter the moves of the other, and these games include multiple phases operating at different spatiotemporal scales. Recent work has highlighted potential issues related to scale-sensitive inferences in predator-prey interactions, and there is growing appreciation that these may exhibit pronounced but predictable dynamics. Motivated by previous assertions about effects arising from foraging games between white-tailed deer and canid predators (coyotes and wolves), we used a large and year-round network of trail cameras to characterize deer and predator foraging games, with a particular focus on clarifying its temporal scale and seasonal variation. Linear features were strongly associated with predator detection rates, suggesting these play a central role in canid foraging tactics by expediting movement. Consistent with expectations for prey contending with highly mobile predators, deer responses were more sensitive to proximal risk metrics at finer spatiotemporal scales, suggesting that coarser but more commonly used scales of analysis may miss useful insights into prey risk-response. Time allocation appears to be a key tactic for deer risk management and was more strongly moderated by factors associated with forage or evasion heterogeneity (forest cover, snow and plant phenology) than factors associated with the likelihood of predator encounter (linear features). Trade-offs between food and safety appeared to vary as much seasonally as spatially, with snow and vegetation phenology giving rise to a "phenology of fear." Deer appear free to counter predators during milder times of year, but a combination of poor foraging state, reduced forage availability, greater movements costs, and reproductive state dampen responsiveness during winter. Pronounced intra-annual variation in predator-prey interactions may be common in seasonal environments.

Risky business: How an herbivore navigates spatiotemporal aspects of risk from competitors and predators

Understanding factors that influence animal behavior is central to ecology. Basic principles of animal ecology imply that individuals should seek to maximize survival and reproduction, which means carefully weighing risk against reward. Decisions become increasingly complex and constrained, however, when risk is spatiotemporally variable. We advance a growing body of work in predator-prey behavior by evaluating novel questions where a prey species is confronted with multiple predators and a potential competitor. We tested how fine-scale behavior of female mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) during the reproductive season shifted depending upon spatial and temporal variation in risk from predators and a potential competitor. We expected female deer to avoid areas of high risk when movement activity of predators and a competitor were high. We used GPS data collected from 76 adult female mule deer, 35 adult female elk, 33 adult coyotes, and six adult mountain lions. Counter to our expectations, female deer exhibited selection for multiple risk factors, however, selection for risk was dampened by the exposure to risk within home ranges of female deer, producing a functional response in habitat selection. Furthermore, temporal variation in movement activity of predators and elk across the diel cycle did not result in a shift in movement activity by female deer. Instead, the average level of risk within their home range was the predominant factor modulating the response to risk by female deer. Our results counter prevailing hypotheses of how large herbivores navigate risky landscapes and emphasize the importance of accounting for the local environment when identifying effects of risk on animal behavior. Moreover, our findings highlight additional behavioral mechanisms used by large herbivores to mitigate multiple sources of predation and potential competitive interactions.

Evaluating the summer landscapes of predation risk and forage quality for elk (Cervus canadensis)

The recovery of carnivore populations in North American has consequences for trophic interactions and population dynamics of prey. In addition to direct effects on prey populations through killing, predators can influence prey behavior by imposing the risk of predation. The mechanisms through which patterns of space use by predators are linked to behavioral response by prey and nonconsumptive effects on prey population dynamics are poorly understood. Our goal was to characterize population- and individual-level patterns of resource selection by elk (Cervus canadensis) in response to risk of wolves (Canis lupus) and mountain lions (Puma concolor) and evaluate potential nonconsumptive effects of these behavioral patterns. We tested the hypothesis that individual elk risk-avoidance behavior during summer would result in exposure to lower-quality forage and reduced body fat and pregnancy rates. First, we evaluated individuals' second-order and third-order resource selection with a used-available sampling design. At the population level, we found evidence for a positive relationship between second- and third-order selection and forage, and an interaction between forage quality and mountain lion risk such that the relative probability of use at low mountain lion risk increased with forage quality but decreased at high risk at both orders of selection. We found no evidence of a population-level trade-off between forage quality and wolf risk. However, we found substantial among-individual heterogeneity in resource selection patterns such that population-level patterns were potentially misleading. We found no evidence that the diversity of individual resource selection patterns varied predictably with available resources, or that patterns of individual risk-related resource selection translated into biologically meaningful changes in body fat or pregnancy rates. Our work highlights the importance of evaluating individual responses to predation risk and predator hunting technique when assessing responses to predators and suggests nonconsumptive effects are not operating at a population scale in this system.

Dynamic landscapes of fear: understanding spatiotemporal risk

The landscape of fear (LOF) concept posits that prey navigate spatial heterogeneity in perceived predation risk, balancing risk mitigation against other activities necessary for survival and reproduction. These proactive behavioral responses to risk can affect individual fitness, population dynamics, species interactions, and coexistence. Yet, antipredator responses in free-ranging prey often contradict expectations, raising questions about the generality and scalability of the LOF framework and suggesting that a purely spatial, static LOF conceptualization may be inadequate. Here, we outline a 'dynamic' LOF framework that explicitly incorporates time to account for predictable spatiotemporal variation in risk-resource trade-offs. This integrated approach suggests novel predictions about predator effects on prey behaviors to refine understanding of the role predators play in ecological communities.

Animal tracking moves community ecology: Opportunities and challenges

1. Individual decisions regarding how, why, and when organisms interact with one another and with their environment scale up to shape patterns and processes in communities. Recent evidence has firmly established the prevalence of intraspecific variation in nature and its relevance in community ecology, yet challenges associated with collecting data on large numbers of individual conspecifics and heterospecifics has hampered integration of individual variation into community ecology. 2. Nevertheless, recent technological and statistical advances in GPS-tracking, remote sensing, and behavioral ecology offer a toolbox for integrating intraspecific variation into community processes. More than simply describing where organisms go, movement data provide unique information about interactions and environmental associations from which a true individual-to-community framework can be built. 3. By linking the movement paths of both conspecifics and heterospecifics with environmental data, ecologists can now simultaneously quantify intra- and interspecific variation regarding the Eltonian (biotic interactions) and Grinnellian (environmental conditions) factors underpinning community assemblage and dynamics, yet substantial logistical and analytical challenges must be addressed for these approaches to realize their full potential. 4. Across communities, empirical integration of Eltonian and Grinnellian factors can support conservation applications and reveal metacommunity dynamics via tracking-based dispersal data. As the logistical and analytical challenges associated with multi-species tracking are surmounted, we envision a future where individual movements and their ecological and environmental signatures will bring resolution to many enduring issues in community ecology.

Beyond the encounter: Predicting multi-predator risk to elk (Cervus canadensis) in summer using predator scats

There is growing evidence that prey perceive the risk of predation and alter their behavior in response, resulting in changes in spatial distribution and potential fitness consequences. Previous approaches to mapping predation risk across a landscape quantify predator space use to estimate potential predator-prey encounters, yet this approach does not account for successful predator attack resulting in prey mortality. An exception is a prey kill site that reflects an encounter resulting in mortality, but obtaining information on kill sites is expensive and requires time to accumulate adequate sample sizes.We illustrate an alternative approach using predator scat locations and their contents to quantify spatial predation risk for elk (Cervus canadensis) from multiple predators in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. We surveyed over 1300 km to detect scats of bears (Ursus arctos/U. americanus), cougars (Puma concolor), coyotes (Canis latrans), and wolves (C. lupus). To derive spatial predation risk, we combined predictions of scat-based resource selection functions (RSFs) weighted by predator abundance with predictions that a predator-specific scat in a location contained elk. We evaluated the scat-based predictions of predation risk by correlating them to predictions based on elk kill sites. We also compared scat-based predation risk on summer ranges of elk following three migratory tactics for consistency with telemetry-based metrics of predation risk and cause-specific mortality of elk.We found a strong correlation between the scat-based approach presented here and predation risk predicted by kill sites and (r = .98, p < .001). Elk migrating east of the Ya Ha Tinda winter range were exposed to the highest predation risk from cougars, resident elk summering on the Ya Ha Tinda winter range were exposed to the highest predation risk from wolves and coyotes, and elk migrating west to summer in Banff National Park were exposed to highest risk of encountering bears, but it was less likely to find elk in bear scats than in other areas. These patterns were consistent with previous estimates of spatial risk based on telemetry of collared predators and recent cause-specific mortality patterns in elk.A scat-based approach can provide a cost-efficient alternative to kill sites of quantifying broad-scale, spatial patterns in risk of predation for prey particularly in multiple predator species systems.

Sampling bias exaggerates a textbook example of a trophic cascade

Understanding trophic cascades in terrestrial wildlife communities is a major challenge because these systems are difficult to sample properly. We show how a tradition of non-random sampling has confounded this understanding in a textbook system (Yellowstone National Park) where carnivore [Canis lupus (wolf)] recovery is associated with a trophic cascade involving changes in herbivore [Cervus canadensis (elk)] behaviour and density that promote plant regeneration. Long-term data indicate a practice of sampling only the tallest young plants overestimated regeneration of overstory aspen (Populus tremuloides) by a factor of 4-7 compared to random sampling because it favoured plants taller than the preferred browsing height of elk and overlooked non-regenerating aspen stands. Random sampling described a trophic cascade, but it was weaker than the one that non-random sampling described. Our findings highlight the critical importance of basic sampling principles (e.g. randomisation) for achieving an accurate understanding of trophic cascades in terrestrial wildlife systems.

Contrasting patterns of risk from human and non-human predators shape temporal activity of prey

Spatiotemporal variation in predation risk arises from interactions between landscape heterogeneity, predator densities and predator hunting mode, generating landscapes of fear for prey species that can have important effects on prey behaviour and ecosystem dynamics. As widespread apex predators, humans present a significant source of risk for hunted animal populations. Spatiotemporal patterns of risk from hunters can overlap or contrast with patterns of risk from other predators. Human infrastructure can also reshape spatial patterns of risk by facilitating or impeding hunter or predator movement, or deterring predators that are themselves wary of humans. We examined how anthropogenic and natural landscape features interact with hunting modes of rifle hunters and mountain lions Puma concolor to generate spatiotemporal patterns of risk for their primary prey. We explored the implications of human-modified landscapes of fear for Columbian black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in Mendocino County, California. We used historical harvest records, hunter GPS trackers and camera trap records of mountain lions to model patterns of risk for deer. We then used camera traps to examine deer spatial and temporal activity patterns in response to this variation in risk. Hunters and mountain lions exhibited distinct, contrasting patterns of spatiotemporal activity. Risk from rifle hunters, who rely on long lines of sight, was highest in open grasslands and near roads and was confined to the daytime. Risk from mountain lions, an ambush predator, was highest in dense shrubland habitat, farther from developed areas, and during the night and crepuscular periods. Areas of human settlement provided a refuge from both hunters and mountain lions. We found no evidence that deer avoided risk in space at the scale of our observations, but deer adjusted their temporal activity patterns to reduce the risk of encounters with humans and mountain lions in areas of higher risk. Our study demonstrates that interactions between human infrastructure, habitat cover and predator hunting mode can result in distinct spatial patterns of predation risk from hunters and other predators that may lead to trade-offs for prey species. However, distinct diel activity patterns of predators may create vacant hunting domains that reduce costly trade-offs for prey. Our study highlights the importance of temporal partitioning as a mechanism of predation risk avoidance.

Behavioral effects of wolf presence on moose habitat selection: testing the landscape of fear hypothesis in an anthropogenic landscape

Landscape of fear refers to the spatial variation in prey perception of predation risk, that under certain conditions, may lead to changes in their behavior. Behavioral responses of prey in relation to large carnivore predation risk have mainly been conducted in areas with low anthropogenic impact. We used long-term data on the distribution of moose in different habitat types in a system characterized by intensive management of all three trophic levels (silviculture, harvest of wolves and moose) to study effects on moose habitat selection resulting from the return of an apex predator, the wolf. We assumed that coursing predators such as wolves will cause an increased risk for moose in some habitat types and tested the hypotheses that moose will avoid open or young forest habitats following wolf establishment. After wolf recolonization, moose reduced their use of one type of open habitat (bog) but there was neither change in the use of the other open habitat type (clear-cut), nor in their use of young forest. Wolf establishment did not influence the use of habitat close to dense habitat when being in open habitats. Thus, the effect of wolves varied among habitat types and there was no unidirectional support for a behavioral effect of wolves' establishment on moose habitat use. Human-driven habitat heterogeneity, concentration of moose forage to certain habitat types, and the effects of a multiple predator guild on moose may all contribute to the results found. We conclude that the landscape of fear is likely to have weak ecological effects on moose in this system.

Outsized effect of predation: Wolves alter wetland creation and recolonization by killing ecosystem engineers

Gray wolves are a premier example of how predators can transform ecosystems through trophic cascades. However, whether wolves change ecosystems as drastically as previously suggested has been increasingly questioned. We demonstrate how wolves alter wetland creation and recolonization by killing dispersing beavers. Beavers are ecosystem engineers that generate most wetland creation throughout boreal ecosystems. By studying beaver pond creation and recolonization patterns coupled with wolf predation on beavers, we determined that 84% of newly created and recolonized beaver ponds remained occupied until the fall, whereas 0% of newly created and recolonized ponds remained active after a wolf killed the dispersing beaver that colonized that pond. By affecting where and when beavers engineer ecosystems, wolves alter all of the ecological processes (e.g., water storage, nutrient cycling, and forest succession) that occur due to beaver-created impoundments. Our study demonstrates how predators have an outsized effect on ecosystems when they kill ecosystem engineers.

The context dependence of non-consumptive predator effects

Non-consumptive predator effects (NCEs) are now widely recognised for their capacity to shape ecosystem structure and function. Yet, forecasting the propagation of these predator-induced trait changes through particular communities remains a challenge. Accordingly, focusing on plasticity in prey anti-predator behaviours, we conceptualise the multi-stage process by which predators trigger direct and indirect NCEs, review and distil potential drivers of contingencies into three key categories (properties of the prey, predator and setting), and then provide a general framework for predicting both the nature and strength of direct NCEs. Our review underscores the myriad factors that can generate NCE contingencies while guiding how research might better anticipate and account for them. Moreover, our synthesis highlights the value of mapping both habitat domains and prey-specific patterns of evasion success ('evasion landscapes') as the basis for predicting how direct NCEs are likely to manifest in any particular community. Looking ahead, we highlight two key knowledge gaps that continue to impede a comprehensive understanding of non-consumptive predator-prey interactions and their ecosystem consequences; namely, insufficient empirical exploration of (1) context-dependent indirect NCEs and (2) the ways in which direct and indirect NCEs are shaped interactively by multiple drivers of context dependence.

Territoriality drives preemptive habitat selection in recovering wolves: Implications for carnivore conservation

According to the ideal-free distribution (IFD), individuals within a population are free to select habitats that maximize their chances of success. Assuming knowledge of habitat quality, the IFD predicts that average fitness will be approximately equal among individuals and between habitats, while density varies, implying that habitat selection will be density dependent. Populations are often assumed to follow an IFD, although this assumption is rarely tested with empirical data, and may be incorrect when territoriality indicates habitat selection tactics that deviate from the IFD (e.g. ideal-despotic distribution or ideal-preemptive distribution). When territoriality influences habitat selection, species' density will not directly reflect components of fitness such as reproductive success or survival. In such cases, assuming an IFD can lead to false conclusions about habitat quality. We tested theoretical models of density-dependent habitat selection on a species known to exhibit territorial behaviour in order to determine whether commonly applied habitat models are appropriate under these circumstances. We combined long-term radiotelemetry and census data from grey wolves Canis lupus in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA to relate spatiotemporal variability in wolf density to underlying classifications of habitat within a hierarchical state-space modelling framework. We then iteratively applied isodar analysis to evaluate which distribution of habitat selection best described this recolonizing wolf population. The wolf population in our study expanded by >1,000% during our study (~50 to >600 individuals), and density-dependent habitat selection was most consistent with the ideal-preemptive distribution, as opposed to the ideal-free or ideal-despotic alternatives. Population density of terrestrial carnivores may not be positively correlated with the fitness value of their habitats, and density-dependent habitat selection patterns may help to explain complex predator-prey dynamics and cascading indirect effects. Source-sink population dynamics appear likely when species exhibit rapid growth and occupy interspersed habitats of contrasting quality. These conditions are likely and have implications for large carnivores in many systems, such as areas in North America and Europe where large predator species are currently recolonizing their former ranges.

Do prey select for vacant hunting domains to minimize a multi-predator threat?

Many ecosystems contain sympatric predator species that hunt in different places and times. We tested whether this provides vacant hunting domains, places and times where and when predators are least active, that prey use to minimize threats from multiple predators simultaneously. We measured how northern Yellowstone elk (Cervus elaphus) responded to wolves (Canis lupus) and cougars (Puma concolor), and found that elk selected for areas outside the high-risk domains of both predators consistent with the vacant domain hypothesis. This enabled elk to avoid one predator without necessarily increasing its exposure to the other. Our results demonstrate how the diel cycle can serve as a key axis of the predator hunting domain that prey exploit to manage predation risk from multiple sources. We argue that a multi-predator, spatiotemporal framework is vital to understand the causes and consequences of prey spatial response to predation risk in environments with more than one predator.

Weak spatiotemporal response of prey to predation risk in a freely interacting system

The extent to which prey space use actively minimizes predation risk continues to ignite controversy. Methodological reasons that have hindered consensus include inconsistent measurements of predation risk, biased spatiotemporal scales at which responses are measured and lack of robust null expectations.

We addressed all three challenges in a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal responses of adult female elk (Cervus elaphus) to the risk of predation by wolves (Canis lupus) during winter in northern Yellowstone, USA.

We quantified spatial overlap between the winter home ranges of GPS‐collared elk and three measures of predation risk: the intensity of wolf space use, the distribution of wolf‐killed elk and vegetation openness. We also assessed whether elk varied their use of areas characterized by more or less predation risk across hours of the day, and estimated encounter rates between simultaneous elk and wolf pack trajectories. We determined whether observed values were significantly lower than expected if elk movements were random with reference to predation risk using a null model approach.

Although a small proportion of elk did show a tendency to minimize use of open vegetation at specific times of the day, overall we highlight a notable absence of spatiotemporal response by female elk to the risk of predation posed by wolves in northern Yellowstone.

Our results suggest that predator–prey interactions may not always result in strong spatiotemporal patterns of avoidance.