Interactive range-limit theory (iRLT): An extension for predicting range shifts

Can internal range structure predict range shifts?

Poleward and uphill range shifts are a common-but variable-response to climate change. We lack understanding regarding this interspecific variation; for example, functional traits show weak or mixed ability to predict range shifts. Characteristics of species' ranges may enhance prediction of range shifts. However, the explanatory power of many range characteristics-especially within-range abundance patterns-remains untested. Here, we introduce a hypothesis framework for predicting range-limit population trends and range shifts from the internal structure of the geographic range, specifically range edge hardness, defined as abundance within range edges relative to the whole range. The inertia hypothesis predicts that high edge abundance facilitates expansions along the leading range edge but creates inertia (either more individuals must disperse or perish) at the trailing range edge such that the trailing edge recedes slowly. In contrast, the limitation hypothesis suggests that hard range edges are the signature of strong limits (e.g. biotic interactions) that force faster contraction of the trailing edge but block expansions at the leading edge of the range. Using a long-term avian monitoring dataset from northern Minnesota, USA, we estimated population trends for 35 trailing-edge species and 18 leading-edge species and modelled their population trends as a function of range edge hardness derived from eBird data. We found limited evidence of associations between range edge hardness and range-limit population trends. Trailing-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be declining, demonstrating weak support for the limitation hypothesis. In contrast, leading-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be increasing, demonstrating weak support for the inertia hypothesis. These opposing results for the leading and trailing range edges might suggest that different mechanisms underpin range expansions and contractions, respectively. As data and state-of-the-art modelling efforts continue to proliferate, we will be ever better equipped to map abundance patterns within species' ranges, offering opportunities to anticipate range shifts through the lens of the geographic range.

American marten occupancy and activity patterns at the southern extent of their range in the eastern United States

The relatively recent rediscovery of an American marten (Martes americana) population that was reintroduced over 30 years ago in southern Vermont provides an opportunity to investigate the relative importance of other mesocarnivores, and forest stand (e.g., DBH, downed logs, vertical structure) and habitat variables to their presence on the Green Mountain National Forest. Marten are state-listed as an endangered species in Vermont and occur there at the southern extent of their range in the eastern United States. We collected detection data from camera surveys in 5 km2 units between 2019 and 2021 (December-April; n = 40 units, 238 cameras). We examined activity patterns and applied an occupancy modeling framework to the detection data to assess the relative importance of covariates at unit and camera levels and assess interactions of marten with other mesocarnivores. We did not find any unit-level occupancy models with significant covariates that were better supported than the base model in the single-season unit-level analysis. Distance to the nearest release site was the covariate most supported for detectability at both spatial scales, and marten occupancy at the camera level was positively influenced by the amount of canopy cover. Two species interaction models did not indicate any positive or negative association beyond random with other mesocarnivores and activity patterns among mesocarnivores had substantial overlap. Marten recovery since the time of the reintroduction appears slow, and even 30 years later, the marten distribution is limited and suggests that dispersal is restricted at some level. We recommend a further investigation of the possible impact of other mesocarnivores to juvenile survival or other vital demographic rate (e.g., recruitment) in marten that were not explicitly measured in this study.

Interspecific behavioural interference and range dynamics: current insights and future directions

Novel biotic interactions in shifting communities play a key role in determining the ability of species' ranges to track suitable habitat. To date, the impact of biotic interactions on range dynamics have predominantly been studied in the context of interactions between different trophic levels or, to a lesser extent, exploitative competition between species of the same trophic level. Yet, both theory and a growing number of empirical studies show that interspecific behavioural interference, such as interspecific territorial and mating interactions, can slow down range expansions, preclude coexistence, or drive local extinction, even in the absence of resource competition. We conducted a systematic review of the current empirical research into the consequences of interspecific behavioural interference on range dynamics. Our findings demonstrate there is abundant evidence that behavioural interference by one species can impact the spatial distribution of another. Furthermore, we identify several gaps where more empirical work is needed to test predictions from theory robustly. Finally, we outline several avenues for future research, providing suggestions for how interspecific behavioural interference could be incorporated into existing scientific frameworks for understanding how biotic interactions influence range expansions, such as species distribution models, to build a stronger understanding of the potential consequences of behavioural interference on the outcome of future range dynamics.

Spatial patterns of reproduction suggest marginal habitat limits continued range expansion of black bears at a forest-desert ecotone

Investigating spatial patterns of animal occupancy and reproduction in peripheral populations can provide insight into factors that form species range boundaries. Following historical extirpation, American black bears (Ursus americanus) recolonized the western Great Basin in Nevada from the Sierra Nevada during the late 1900s. This range expansion, however, has not continued further into the Great Basin despite the presence of additional habitat. We aimed to quantify whether reduced reproduction toward the range edge contributes to this range boundary. We analyzed black bear detections from 100 camera traps deployed across black bear distribution in western Nevada using a multistate occupancy model that quantified the probability of occupancy and reproduction (i.e., female bears with cubs occupancy) in relation to changes in habitat type and habitat amount toward the range boundary. We detected a strong effect of habitat amount and habitat type on the probability of black bear occupancy and reproduction. At similar levels of landscape-scale habitat amount (e.g., 50%), estimated probability of occupancy for adult bears in piñon-juniper woodlands near the range boundary was 0.39, compared to ~1.0 in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest (i.e., core habitat). Furthermore, estimated probability of cub occupancy, conditional on adult bear occupancy, in landscapes with 50% habitat was 0.32 in Great Basin piñon-juniper woodlands, compared to 0.92 in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest. Black bear range in the western Great Basin conforms to the center-periphery hypothesis, with piñon-juniper woodland at the range edge supporting ecologically marginal habitat for the species compared to habitat in the Sierra Nevada. Further geographic expansion of black bears in the Great Basin may be limited by lower occupancy of reproducing females in piñon-juniper woodland. Center-periphery range dynamics may be common in large carnivore species, as their dispersal ability allows them to colonize low-quality habitat near range edges.

Habitat and climatic associations of climate-sensitive species along a southern range boundary

Climate change and habitat loss are recognized as important drivers of shifts in wildlife species' geographic distributions. While often considered independently, there is considerable overlap between these drivers, and understanding how they contribute to range shifts can predict future species assemblages and inform effective management. Our objective was to evaluate the impacts of habitat, climatic, and anthropogenic effects on the distributions of climate-sensitive vertebrates along a southern range boundary in Northern Michigan, USA. We combined multiple sources of occurrence data, including harvest and citizen-science data, then used hierarchical Bayesian spatial models to determine habitat and climatic associations for four climate-sensitive vertebrate species (American marten [Martes americana], snowshoe hare [Lepus americanus], ruffed grouse [Bonasa umbellus] and moose [Alces alces]). We used total basal area of at-risk forest types to represent habitat, and temperature and winter habitat indices to represent climate. Marten associated with upland spruce-fir and lowland riparian forest types, hares with lowland conifer and aspen-birch, grouse with lowland riparian hardwoods, and moose with upland spruce-fir. Species differed in climatic drivers with hares positively associated with cooler annual temperatures, moose with cooler summer temperatures and grouse with colder winter temperatures. Contrary to expectations, temperature variables outperformed winter habitat indices. Model performance varied greatly among species, as did predicted distributions along the southern edge of the Northwoods region. As multiple species were associated with lowland riparian and upland spruce-fir habitats, these results provide potential for efficient prioritization of habitat management. Both direct and indirect effects from climate change are likely to impact the distribution of climate-sensitive species in the future and the use of multiple data types and sources in the modelling of species distributions can result in more accurate predictions resulting in improved management at policy-relevant scales.

The role of climate change and niche shifts in divergent range dynamics of a sister-species pair

Species ranges are set by limitations in factors including climate tolerances, habitat use, and dispersal abilities. Understanding the factors governing species range dynamics remains a challenge that is ever more important in our rapidly changing world. Species ranges can shift if environmental changes affect available habitat, or if the niche or habitat connectivity of a species changes. We tested how changes in habitat availability, niche, or habitat connectivity could contribute to divergent range dynamics in a sister-species pair. The great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus) has expanded its range northward from Texas to Nebraska in the past 40 years, while its closest relative, the boattailed grackle (Quiscalus major), has remained tied to the coasts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico as well as the interior of Florida. We created species distribution and connectivity models trained on citizen science data from 1970-1979 and 2010-2019 to determine how the availability of habitat, the types of habitat occupied, and range-wide connectivity have changed for both species. We found that the two species occupy distinct habitats and that the great-tailed grackle has shifted to occupy a larger breadth of urban, arid environments farther from natural water sources. Meanwhile, the boattailed grackle has remained limited to warm, wet, coastal environments. We found no evidence that changes in habitat connectivity affected the ranges of either species. Overall, our results suggest that the great-tailed grackle has shifted its realized niche as part of its rapid range expansion, while the range dynamics of the boat-tailed grackle may be shaped more by climate change. The expansion in habitats occupied by the great-tailed grackle is consistent with observations that species with high behavioral flexibility can rapidly expand their geographic range by using human-altered habitat. This investigation identifies how opposite responses to anthropogenic change could drive divergent range dynamics, elucidating the factors that have and will continue to shape species ranges.

Pushed Northward by Climate Change: Range Shifts With a Chance of Co-occurrence Reshuffling in the Forecast for Northern European Odonates

Biodiversity is heavily influenced by ongoing climate change, which often results in species undergoing range shifts, either poleward or uphill. Range shifts can occur provided suitable habitats exist within reach. However, poleward latitudinal shifts might be limited by additional abiotic or biotic constraints, such as increased seasonality, photoperiod patterns, and species interactions. To gain insight into the dynamics of insect range shifts at high latitudes, we constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) for 57 Odonata species occurring in northern Europe. We used citizen science data from Sweden and present-day climatic variables covering a latitudinal range of 1,575 km. Then, to measure changes in range and interactions among Odonata species, we projected the ENMs up to the year 2080. We also estimated potential changes in species interactions using niche overlap and co-occurrence patterns. We found that most Odonata species are predicted to expand their range northward. The average latitudinal shift is expected to reach 1.83 and 3.25 km y-1 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by 2061-2080. While the most warm-dwelling species may increase their range, our results indicate that cold-dwelling species will experience range contractions. The present-day niche overlap patterns among species will remain largely the same in the future. However, our results predict changes in co-occurrence patterns, with many species pairs showing increased co-occurrence, while others will no longer co-occur because of the range contractions. In sum, our ENM results suggest that species assemblages of Odonata-and perhaps insects in general-in northern latitudes will experience great compositional changes.

Climate adaptation of biodiversity conservation in managed forest landscapes

Conservation of biodiversity in managed forest landscapes needs to be complemented with new approaches given the threat from rapid climate change. Most frameworks for adaptation of biodiversity conservation to climate change include two major strategies. The first is the resistance strategy, which focuses on actions to increase the capacity of species and communities to resist change. The second is the transformation strategy and includes actions that ease the transformation of communities to a set of species that are well adapted to the novel environmental conditions. We suggest a number of concrete actions policy makers and managers can take. Under the resistance strategy, five tools are introduced, including: identifying and protecting forest climate refugia with cold-favored species; reducing the effects of drought by protecting the hydrological network; and actively removing competitors when they threaten cold-favored species. Under the transformation strategy, we suggest three tools, including: enhancing conditions for forest species favored by the new climate, but currently disfavored by forest management, by planting them at suitable sites outside their main range; and increasing connectivity across the landscape to enhance the expansion of warm-favored species to sites that have become suitable. Finally, we suggest applying a landscape perspective and simultaneously managing for both retreating and expanding species. The two different strategies (resistance and transformation) should be seen as complementary ways to maintain a rich biodiversity in future forest ecosystems.

The Discontinuous Elevational Distribution of an Ungulate at the Regional Scale: Implications for Speciation and Conservation

Simple Summary

The Himalaya blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) in Baima Snow Mountain is found to exhibit a distinctive bimodal distribution along elevation gradient contrasting the unimodal distributions of most species. The first distributional peak of Himalaya blue sheep was in scree habitat around 4100 m a.s.l., while the second peak was in the dry-hot valley around 2600 m. Geographic separation from the original population along elevation suggested that population at lower elevation could be a separate species ecologically, or a taxa ongoing differentiation. Invasive species Opuntia ficus-indica, which colonized the region six hundred years ago, may have formed new foraging niche to support population at lower elevation. Our results suggested conservation measures should pay attention to taxa ongoing differentiation, and consider the possible active effect of biological invasion.

Abstract

The elevational range where montane species live is a key factor of spatial niche partitioning, because the limits of such ranges are influenced by interspecies interaction, abiotic stress, and dispersal barriers. At the regional scale, unimodal distributions of single species along the elevation gradient have often been reported, while discontinuous patterns, such as bimodal distributions, and potential ecological implications have been rarely discussed. Here, we used extensive camera trap records to reveal the elevation distribution of Himalaya blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) and its co-existence with other ground animal communities along a slope of Baima Snow Mountain, southwest China. The results show that Himalaya blue sheep exhibited a distinctive bimodal distribution along the elevation gradient contrasting the unimodal distributions found for the other ungulates in Baima snow mountain. A first distributional peak was represented by a population habituating in scree habitat around 4100 m, and a second peak was found in the dry-hot valley around 2600 m. The two distinct populations co-existed with disparate animal communities and these assemblages were similar both in the dry and rainy seasons. The extremely low abundance of blue sheep observed in the densely forested belt at mid-elevation indicates that vegetation rather than temperature is responsible for such segregation. The low-elevation population relied highly on Opuntia ficus-indica, an invasive cactus species that colonized the region six hundred years ago, as food resource. Being the only animal that developed a strategy to feed on this spiky plant, we suggest invasive species may have formed new foraging niche to support blue sheep population in lower elevation hot-dry river valleys, resulting in the geographic separation from the original population and a potential morphological differentiation, as recorded. These findings emphasize the important conservation values of role of ecological functions to identify different taxa, and conservation values of apparent similar species of different ecological functions.

Diversity and composition of macroinvertebrate communities in a rare inland salt marsh

Inland salt marshes are rare habitats in the Great Lakes region of North America, formed on salt deposits from the Silurian period. These patchy habitats are abiotically stressful for the freshwater invertebrates that live there, and provide an opportunity to study the relationship between stress and diversity. We used morphological and COI metabarcoding data to assess changes in diversity and composition across both space (a transect from the salt seep to an adjacent freshwater area) and time (three sampling seasons). Richness was significantly lower at the seep site with both datatypes, while metabarcoding data additionally showed reduced richness at the freshwater transect end, consistent with a pattern where intermediate levels of stress show higher diversity. We found complementary, rather than redundant, patterns of community composition using the two datatypes: not all taxa were equally sequenced with the metabarcoding protocol. We identified taxa that are abundant at the salt seep of the marsh, including biting midges (Culicoides) and ostracods (Heterocypris). We conclude that (as found in other studies) molecular and morphological work should be used in tandem to identify the biodiversity in this rare habitat. Additionally, salinity may be a driver of community membership in this system, though further ecological research is needed to rule out alternate hypotheses.

Quantifying the demographic vulnerabilities of dry woodlands to climate and competition using rangewide monitoring data

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of tree species, impacting ecosystem structure and function. Yet, anticipating where this will occur is often hampered by a lack of understanding of how demographic rates, most notably recruitment, vary in response to climate and competition across a species range. Using large-scale monitoring data on two dry woodland tree species (Pinus edulis and Juniperus osteosperma), we develop an approach to infer recruitment, survival, and growth of both species across their range. In doing so, we account for ecological and statistical dependencies inherent in large-scale monitoring data. We find that drying and warming conditions generally lead to declines in recruitment and survival, but the strength of responses varied between species. These climate conditions point to geographic regions of high vulnerability for particular species, such as Pinus edulis in northern Arizona, where both survival and recruitment are low. Our approach provides a path forward for leveraging emerging large-scale monitoring and remotely sensed data to anticipate the impacts of global change on species distributions.

Physiological basis of interactive responses to temperature and salinity in coastal marine invertebrate: Implications for responses to warming

Developing physiological mechanistic models to predict species' responses to climate-driven environmental variables remains a key endeavor in ecology. Such approaches are challenging, because they require linking physiological processes with fitness and contraction or expansion in species' distributions. We explore those links for coastal marine species, occurring in regions of freshwater influence (ROFIs) and exposed to changes in temperature and salinity. First, we evaluated the effect of temperature on hemolymph osmolality and on the expression of genes relevant for osmoregulation in larvae of the shore crab Carcinus maenas. We then discuss and develop a hypothetical model linking osmoregulation, fitness, and species expansion/contraction toward or away from ROFIs. In C. maenas, high temperature led to a threefold increase in the capacity to osmoregulate in the first and last larval stages (i.e., those more likely to experience low salinities). This result matched the known pattern of survival for larval stages where the negative effect of low salinity on survival is mitigated at high temperatures (abbreviated as TMLS). Because gene expression levels did not change at low salinity nor at high temperatures, we hypothesize that the increase in osmoregulatory capacity (OC) at high temperature should involve post-translational processes. Further analysis of data suggested that TMLS occurs in C. maenas larvae due to the combination of increased osmoregulation (a physiological mechanism) and a reduced developmental period (a phenological mechanisms) when exposed to high temperatures. Based on information from the literature, we propose a model for C. maenas and other coastal species showing the contribution of osmoregulation and phenological mechanisms toward changes in range distribution under coastal warming. In species where the OC increases with temperature (e.g., C. maenas larvae), osmoregulation should contribute toward expansion if temperature increases; by contrast in those species where osmoregulation is weaker at high temperature, the contribution should be toward range contraction.

Population genomic data in spider mites point to a role for local adaptation in shaping range shifts

Local adaptation is particularly likely in invertebrate pests that typically have short generation times and large population sizes, but there are few studies on pest species investigating local adaptation and separating this process from contemporaneous and historical gene flow. Here, we use a population genomic approach to investigate evolutionary processes in the two most dominant spider mites in China, Tetranychus truncatus Ehara and Tetranychus pueraricola Ehara et Gotoh, which have wide distributions, short generation times, and large population sizes. We generated genome resequencing of 246 spider mites mostly from China, as well as Japan and Canada at a combined total depth of 3,133×. Based on demographic reconstruction, we found that both mite species likely originated from refugia in southwestern China and then spread to other regions, with the dominant T. truncatus spreading ~3,000 years later than T. pueraricola. Estimated changes in population sizes of the pests matched known periods of glaciation and reinforce the recent expansion of the dominant spider mites. T. truncatus showed a greater extent of local adaptation with more genes (76 vs. 17) associated with precipitation, including candidates involved in regulation of homeostasis of water and ions, signal transduction, and motor skills. In both species, many genes (135 in T. truncatus and 95 in T. pueraricola) also showed signatures of selection related to elevation, including G-protein-coupled receptors, cytochrome P450s, and ABC-transporters. Our results point to historical expansion processes and climatic adaptation in these pests which could have contributed to their growing importance, particularly in the case of T. truncatus.

Biological control agent attack timing and population variability, but not density, best explain target weed density across an environmental gradient

Spatial variation in plant–herbivore interactions can be important in pest systems, particularly when insect herbivores are used as biological control agents to manage invasive plants. The geographic ranges of the invasive plant alligatorweed (Alternanthera philoxeroides) and its biological control agent the alligatorweed flea beetle (Agasicles hygrophila) do not completely overlap in the southeastern USA, producing spatial heterogeneity in interaction strength that may be related to latitude-correlated environmental gradients. We studied this system near the range margin of the alligatorweed flea beetle to test whether spatial variation in alligatorweed density was best explained by agent mean or maximum density, variability in agent density, agent attack timing, or a combination of biological control and environmental (i.e., weather) variables. The pattern that emerged was that mean agent and host densities were negatively and positively associated with latitude, respectively. Variability in agent density increased with latitude and was positively correlated with host density. We further discovered that agent first attack timing was negatively correlated with winter and spring temperatures and spring and summer precipitation, and positively correlated with seasonal temperature extremes, which was then directly influential on agent density and variability in density, and indirectly on host density. This study demonstrates that, contrary to common wisdom, weather-related timing of agent activity and population variability, but not agent mean density, contribute to the spatial heterogeneity observed in alligatorweed populations.

Interactive range-limit theory (iRLT): An extension for predicting range shifts

A central theme of range-limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high-latitude/altitude limits, whereas biotic interactions create lower limits. This hypothesis, often credited to Charles Darwin, is a pattern widely assumed to occur in nature. However, abiotic factors can impose constraints on both limits and there is scant evidence to support the latter prediction. Deviations from these predictions may arise from correlations between abiotic factors and biotic interactions, as a lack of data to evaluate the hypothesis, or be an artifact of scale. Combining two tenets of ecology-niche theory and predator-prey theory-provides an opportunity to understand how biotic interactions influence range limits and how this varies by trophic level. We propose an expansion of RLT, interactive RLT (iRLT), to understand the causes of range limits and predict range shifts. Incorporating the main predictions of Darwin's hypothesis, iRLT hypothesizes that abiotic and biotic factors can interact to impact both limits of a species' range. We summarize current thinking on range limits and perform an integrative review to evaluate support for iRLT and trophic differences along range margins, surveying the mammal community along the boreal-temperate and forest-tundra ecotones of North America. Our review suggests that range-limit dynamics are more nuanced and interactive than classically predicted by RLT. Many (57 of 70) studies indicate that biotic factors can ameliorate harsh climatic conditions along high-latitude/altitude limits. Conversely, abiotic factors can also mediate biotic interactions along low-latitude/altitude limits (44 of 68 studies). Both scenarios facilitate range expansion, contraction or stability depending on the strength and the direction of the abiotic or biotic factors. As predicted, biotic interactions most often occurred along lower limits, yet there were trophic differences. Carnivores were only limited by competitive interactions (n = 25), whereas herbivores were more influenced by predation and parasitism (77%; 55 of 71 studies). We highlight how these differences may create divergent range patterns along lower limits. We conclude by (a) summarizing iRLT; (b) contrasting how our model system and others fit this hypothesis and (c) suggesting future directions for evaluating iRLT.