Spatiotemporal modelling of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks on the Great Barrier Reef to inform control strategies

Advancing projections of crown-of-thorns starfish to support management interventions

Outbreaks of corallivorous Crown of Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster spp.; CoTS) cause substantial coral mortality throughout the Indo-Pacific, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Refining CoTS population density modelling and understanding the disparities between real-world observations and model predictions is crucial for developing effective control strategies. Using a spatially explicit ecosystem model of the GBR, we compared CoTS density model predictions to observations and incorporated a new zone-specific mortality rate to account for differences in predation of CoTS between fished and protected reefs. We found high congruence between predictions and observations: ∼81 % of categorical reef level CoTS densities matched or only differed by one category. However, underpredictions increased with higher observed densities. Zone-specific CoTS mortality reduced severe underpredictions from 7.1 % to 5.6 %, which is critical for managers as underpredictions indicate missing outbreaks where targeted culling is necessary, but also lead to underestimated coral loss attributed to CoTS outbreaks. Reef protection status affected prediction accuracy, highlighting the importance of further research on in situ CoTS mortality rates. The location of a reef inside or outside the "initiation box", a speculative area of primary outbreaks (i.e., initial abrupt population increases) on the GBR, also influenced accuracy, with exact predictions more likely outside. Accurately modelling initiation box dynamics is challenging due to limited empirical data on CoTS outbreaks, highlighting the need for focussed research on outbreak dynamics to enhance predictive accuracy. Spatial factors, such as region and shelf position, contributed to the variance between observations and predictions, underscoring the importance of the spatial-temporal context of each observation. Observations of CoTS can help refine model predictions, guide targeted control measures, and contribute to effective ecosystem management for the long-term resilience of the GBR and other reefs targeted by CoTS throughout the Indo-Pacific.

A new strategy based on a cascade amplification strategy biosensor for on-site eDNA detection and outbreak warning of crown-of-thorns starfish

Population outbreaks of the crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) seriously threaten the sustainability of coral reef ecosystems. However, traditional ecological monitoring techniques cannot provide early warning before the outbreaks, thus preventing timely intervention. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a more accurate and faster technology to predict the outbreaks of COTS. In this work, we developed an electrochemical biosensor based on a programmed catalytic hairpin assembly (CHA) and hybridization chain reaction (HCR) cyclic amplification strategy for sensitive and selective detection of COTS environmental DNA (eDNA) in water bodies. This biosensor exhibited excellent electrochemical characteristics, including a low limit of detection (LOD = 18.4 fM), low limit of quantification (LOQ = 41.1 fM), and wide linear range (50 fM - 10 nM). The biosensing technology successfully allowed the detection of COTS eDNA in the aquarium environment, and the results also demonstrated a significant correlation between eDNA concentration and COTS number (r = 0.990; P < 0.001). The reliability and accuracy of the biosensor results have been further validated through comparison with digital droplet PCR (ddPCR). Moreover, the applicability and accuracy of the biosensor were reconfirmed in field tests at the COTS outbreak site in the South China Sea, which has shown potential application in dynamically monitoring the larvae before the COTS outbreak. Therefore, this efficient electrochemical biosensing technology offers a new solution for on-site monitoring and early warning of the COTS outbreak.

THREE-DECADE changes of reef cover in Pulau Layang-Layang, Malaysia using multitemporal Landsat images

Over the years, coral reefs in the South China Sea have degraded and faced severe threats from rapid development, coral bleaching, and Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (COTS) outbreak. There is limited knowledge relating to the effects of anthropogenic disturbances and natural events on the coral reefs of Pulau Layang-Layang. This study aims to assess reef cover changes by utilizing Landsat satellite images spanning from 1989 to 2022. Using the object-based image analysis method, this study classified the reef cover into three categories: coral, rock and rubble, and sand. The supervised classification had an overall accuracy of 86.41-87.38 % and Tau's coefficients of 0.80-0.81. The results showed island development and construction of artificial bird sanctuary have led to an increase in coral cover. Furthermore, it was illustrated that the impact of COTS outbreaks in 2010 and 2020 differed significantly, with the latter showing no signs of recovery. Our study underscores the importance of timely intervention to mitigate the spread of COTS. This study provides insights into the resilience and vulnerability of these ecosystems in the face of various stressors.

Protecting Great Barrier Reef resilience through effective management of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks

Resilience-based management is essential to protect ecosystems in the Anthropocene. Unlike large-scale climate threats to Great Barrier Reef (GBR) corals, outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) can be directly managed through targeted culling. Here, we evaluate the outcomes of a decade of strategic COTS management in suppressing outbreaks and protecting corals during the 4th COTS outbreak wave at reef and regional scales (sectors). We compare COTS density and coral cover dynamics during the 3rd and 4th outbreak waves. During the 4th outbreak wave, sectors that received limited to no culling had sustained COTS outbreaks causing significant coral losses. In contrast, in sectors that received timely and sufficient cull effort, coral cover increased substantially, and outbreaks were suppressed with COTS densities up to six-fold lower than in the 3rd outbreak wave. In the Townsville sector for example, despite exposure to comparable disturbance regimes during the 4th outbreak wave, effective outbreak suppression coincided with relative increases in sector-wide coral cover (44%), versus significant coral cover declines (37%) during the 3rd outbreak wave. Importantly, these estimated increases span entire sectors, not just reefs with active COTS control. Outbreaking reefs with higher levels of culling had net increases in coral cover, while the rate of coral loss was more than halved on reefs with lower levels of cull effort. Our results also indicate that outbreak wave progression to adjoining sectors has been delayed, probably via suppression of COTS larval supply. Our findings provide compelling evidence that proactive, targeted, and sustained COTS management can effectively suppress COTS outbreaks and deliver coral growth and recovery benefits at reef and sector-wide scales. The clear coral protection outcomes demonstrate the value of targeted manual culling as both a scalable intervention to mitigate COTS outbreaks, and a potent resilience-based management tool to "buy time" for coral reefs, protecting reef ecosystem functions and biodiversity as the climate changes.

Increasing densities of Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris) at Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef, resolved using a novel survey method

Recurrent population irruptions of Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS, Acanthaster cf. solaris) are among the foremost causes of coral mortality on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Early intervention during the initiation of new population irruptions represents the best opportunity to effectively manage this threat. However, current survey methods are not sufficiently sensitive to detect changes in CoTS densities during the early onset of population irruptions. Using scooter-assisted large area diver-based (SALAD) surveys, this study revealed increasing densities of CoTS at Lizard Island from 2019 to 2022. Inferred densities of adult CoTS (which account for distinct sets of observed feeding scars where starfish were not detected) increased from 4.90 ha-1 (± 0.85 SE) in 2019 to 17.71 ha-1 (± 2.3 SE) in 2022. A wide range of size classes were recorded suggesting that recruitment over several years is contributing to increasing densities. Importantly, the sustained density increases reported here denote that renewed CoTS population irruptions may soon become fully established at Lizard Island and more broadly in the northern GBR, especially without early intervention through effective population management.

The effect of catchment load reductions on water quality in the crown-of-thorn starfish outbreak initiation zone

Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS) population outbreaks contribute to coral cover decline on Indo-Pacific reefs. On the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), enhanced catchment nutrient loads are hypothesised to increase phytoplankton food for CoTS larvae in the outbreak initiation zone. This study examines whether catchment load reductions will improve water quality in this zone during the larval period. We defined the i) initiation zone's spatial extent; ii) larval stage's temporal extent; and iii) water quality thresholds related to larval food, from published information. We applied these to model simulations, developed to quantify the effect of catchment load reductions on GBR water quality (Baird et al., 2021), and found a consistently weak response of chlorophyll-a, total organic nitrogen and large zooplankton concentrations in the initiation zone. Model results indicate marine and atmospheric forcing are more likely to control the planktonic biomass in this zone, even during major flooding events purported to precede CoTS outbreaks.

Developing an effective marine eDNA monitoring: eDNA detection at pre-outbreak densities of corallivorous seastar (Acanthaster cf. solaris)

Outbreaks of the corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Seastar (CoTS) Acanthaster cf. solaris contribute significantly to coral reef loss. Control of outbreaks is hampered because standard monitoring techniques do not detect outbreaks at early (low density) stages, thus preventing early intervention. We previously demonstrated that eDNA monitoring can detect CoTS at intermediate densities. Here, we test whether detection probability can be improved by (i) targeted site selection or collection at specific times and (ii) moving from an average eDNA copy number approach (based on the limit of quantification) to a presence/absence approach (based on the limit of detection). Using a dataset collected over three years and multiple reef sites, we demonstrated that adding water residence age, sea surface level and temperature into generalized linear models explained low amounts of variance of eDNA copy numbers. Site specific CoTS density, by contrast, was a significant predictor for eDNA copy numbers. Bayesian multi-scale occupancy modelling of the presence/absence data demonstrated that the probability of sample capture (θ) on most reefs with intermediate or high CoTS densities was >0.8. Thus, confirming CoTS presence on these reefs would only require 2-3 samples. Sample capture decreased with decreasing CoTS density. Collecting ten filters was sufficient to reliably (based on the lower 95 % Credibility Interval) detect CoTS below nominal outbreak levels (3 Ind. ha^-1). Copy number-based estimates may be more relevant to quantify CoTS at higher densities. Although water residence age did contribute little to our models, sites with higher residence times may serve as sentinel sites accumulating eDNA. The approach based on presence or absence of eDNA facilitates eDNA monitoring to detect CoTS densities below outbreak thresholds and we continue to further develop this method for quantification.

Fish predators control outbreaks of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish

Outbreaks of corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS, Acanthaster spp.) have caused persistent and widespread loss of coral cover across Indo-Pacific coral reefs. The potential drivers of these outbreaks have been debated for more than 50 years, hindering effective management to limit their destructive impacts. Here, we show that fish biomass removal through commercial and recreational fisheries may be a major driver of CoTS population outbreaks. CoTS densities increase systematically with increasing fish biomass removal, including for known CoTS predators. Moreover, the biomass of fish species and families that influence CoTS densities are 1.4 to 2.1-fold higher on reefs within no-take marine reserves, while CoTS densities are 2.8-fold higher on reefs that are open to fishing, indicating the applicability of fisheries-based management to prevent CoTS outbreaks. Designing targeted fisheries management with consideration of CoTS population dynamics may offer a tangible and promising contribution to effectively reduce the detrimental impacts of CoTS outbreaks across the Indo-Pacific.

Knowledge Gaps in the Biology, Ecology, and Management of the Pacific Crown-of-Thorns Sea Star Acanthaster sp. on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

AbstractCrown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) are among the most studied coral reef organisms, owing to their propensity to undergo major population irruptions, which contribute to significant coral loss and reef degradation throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, there are still important knowledge gaps pertaining to the biology, ecology, and management of Acanthaster sp. Renewed efforts to advance understanding and management of Pacific crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) on Australia's Great Barrier Reef require explicit consideration of relevant and tractable knowledge gaps. Drawing on established horizon scanning methodologies, this study identified contemporary knowledge gaps by asking active and/or established crown-of-thorns sea star researchers to pose critical research questions that they believe should be addressed to improve the understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef. A total of 38 participants proposed 246 independent research questions, organized into 7 themes: feeding ecology, demography, distribution and abundance, predation, settlement, management, and environmental change. Questions were further assigned to 48 specific topics nested within the 7 themes. During this process, redundant questions were removed, which reduced the total number of distinct research questions to 172. Research questions posed were mostly related to themes of demography (46 questions) and management (48 questions). The dominant topics, meanwhile, were the incidence of population irruptions (16 questions), feeding ecology of larval sea stars (15 questions), effects of elevated water temperature on crown-of-thorns sea stars (13 questions), and predation on juveniles (12 questions). While the breadth of questions suggests that there is considerable research needed to improve understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef, the predominance of certain themes and topics suggests a major focus for new research while also providing a roadmap to guide future research efforts.

DNA-Based Detection and Patterns of Larval Settlement of the Corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Sea Star (Acanthaster sp.)

AbstractPopulation irruptions of the western Pacific crown-of-thorns sea star (Acanthaster sp.) are a perennial threat to coral reefs and may be initiated by fluctuations in reproductive or settlement success. However, the processes dictating their early life history, particularly larval settlement, remain poorly understood given limitations in sampling larvae and newly settled juveniles in the field. Here, we introduce an innovative method to measure crown-of-thorns sea star settlement, using artificial settlement collectors and droplet digital polymerase chain reaction based on crown-of-thorns sea star-specific mitochondrial DNA primers. This study demonstrated the utility of this method and explored temporal and spatial patterns of crown-of-thorns sea star settlement on the Great Barrier Reef from 2016 to 2020. Settlement varied considerably between sampling periods at Rib Reef and peaked between October 2016 and January 2017. Our results further suggest that crown-of-thorns sea star larvae readily settle in shallow reef environments, with no preferential settlement detected between depths tested (4-12 m). Substantial variation between Great Barrier Reef regions was revealed in 2019-2020, because collectors deployed on reefs in the central Great Barrier Reef were >10 times as likely to record newly settled crown-of-thorns sea stars as reefs in the northern Great Barrier Reef near Lizard Island. The trends reported here add to our understanding of this critical life-history stage; however, further method validation and larger-scale studies are needed to address pertinent information gaps, such as the stock-recruitment dynamics of this species. Most importantly, fluctuations in crown-of-thorns sea star settlement can now be detected using this sampling protocol, which demonstrates its utility in heralding new and renewed population irruptions of this destructive sea star.

Synergies between local and climate-driven impacts on coral reefs in the Tropical Pacific: A review of issues and adaptation opportunities

Coral reefs in the tropical Pacific region are exposed to a range of anthropogenic local pressures. Climate change is exacerbating local impacts, causing unprecedented declines in coral reef habitats and bringing negative socio-economic consequences to Pacific communities who depend heavily on coral reefs for food, income and livelihoods. Continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions will drive future climate change, which will accelerate coral reef degradation. Traditional systems of resource governance in Pacific island nations provide a foundation to address local pressures and build reef resilience to climate change. Management and adaptation options should build on the regional diversity of governance systems and traditional knowledge to support community-based initiatives and cross-sectoral cooperation to address local pressures and minimize climate change impacts. Such an inclusive approach will offer enhanced opportunities to develop and implement transformative adaptation solutions, particularly in remote and regional areas where centralized management does not extend.

Larval connectivity and water quality explain spatial distribution of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks across the Great Barrier Reef

Outbreaks of the coral eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthasts cf. solaris) occur in cyclical waves along the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), contributing significantly to the decline in hard coral cover over the past 30 years. One main difficulty faced by scientists and managers alike, is understanding the relative importance of contributing factors to COTS outbreaks such as increased nutrients and water quality, larval connectivity, fishing pressure, and abiotic conditions. We analysed COTS abundances from the most recent outbreak (2010-2018) using both boosted regression trees and generalised additive models to identify key predictors of COTS outbreaks. We used this approach to predict the suitability of each reef on the GBR for COTS outbreaks at three different levels: (1) reefs with COTS present intermittently (Presence); (2) reefs with COTS widespread and present in most samples and (Prevalence) (3) reefs experiencing outbreak levels of COTS (Outbreak). We also compared the utility of two auto-covariates accounting for spatial autocorrelation among observations, built using weighted inverse distance and weighted larval connectivity to reefs supporting COTS populations, respectively. Boosted regression trees (BRT) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were combined in an ensemble model to reduce the effect of model uncertainty on predictions of COTS presence, prevalence and outbreaks. Our results from best performing models indicate that temperature (Degree Heating Week exposure: relative importance=13.1%) and flood plume exposure (13.0%) are the best predictors of COTS presence, variability in chlorophyll concentration (12.6%) and flood plume exposure (8.2%) best predicted COTS prevalence and larval connectivity potential (22.7%) and minimum sea surface temperature (8.0%) are the best predictors of COTS outbreaks. Whether the reef was open or closed to fishing, however, had no significant effect on either COTS presence, prevalence or outbreaks in BRT results (<0.5%). We identified major hotspots of COTS activity primarily on the mid shelf central GBR and on the southern Swains reefs. This study provides the first empirical comparison of the major hypotheses of COTS outbreaks and the first validated predictions of COTS outbreak potential at the GBR scale incorporating connectivity, nutrients, biophysical and spatial variables, providing a useful aid to management of this pest species on the GBR.

Monitoring the resilience of a no-take marine reserve to a range extending species using benthic imagery

Global climate change is driving the redistribution of marine species and thereby potentially restructuring endemic communities. Understanding how localised conservation measures such as protection from additional human pressures can confer resilience to ecosystems is therefore an important area of research. Here, we examine the resilience of a no-take marine reserve (NTR) to the establishment of urchin barrens habitat. The barrens habitat is created through overgrazing of kelp by an invading urchin species that is expanding its range within a hotspot of rapid climate change. In our study region, a multi-year monitoring program provides a unique time-series of benthic imagery collected by an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) within an NTR and nearby reference areas. We use a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling approach to estimate whether the NTR is associated with reduced formation of urchin barrens, and thereby enhances local resilience. Our approach controls for the important environmental covariates of depth and habitat complexity (quantified as rugosity derived from multibeam sonar mapping), as well as spatial and temporal dependence. We find evidence for the NTR conferring resilience with a strong reserve effect that suggests improved resistance to the establishment of barrens. However, we find a concerning and consistent trajectory of increasing barrens cover in both the reference areas and the NTR, with the odds of barrens increasing by approximately 32% per year. Thus, whereas the reserve is demonstrating resilience to the initial establishment of barrens, there is currently no evidence of recovery once barrens are established. We also find that depth and rugosity covariates derived from multibeam mapping provide useful predictors for barrens occurrence. These results have important management implications as they demonstrate: (i) the importance of monitoring programs to inform adaptive management; (ii) that NTRs provide a potential local conservation management tool under climate change impacts, and (iii) that technologies such as AUVs and multibeam mapping can be harnessed to inform regional decision-making. Continuation of the current monitoring program is required to assess whether the NTR can provide long term protection from a phase shift that replaces kelp with urchin barrens.

Relative efficacy of three approaches to mitigate Crown-of-Thorns Starfish outbreaks on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

Population outbreaks of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (COTS; Acanthaster spp.) are a major contributor to loss of hard coral throughout the Indo-Pacific. On Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR), management interventions have evolved over four COTS outbreaks to include: (1) manual COTS control, (2) Marine Protected Area (MPA) zoning, and, (3) water quality improvement. Here we evaluate the contribution of these three approaches to managing population outbreaks of COTS to minimize coral loss. Strategic manual control at sites reduced COTS numbers, including larger, more fecund and damaging individuals. Sustained reduction in COTS densities and improvements in hard coral cover at a site were achieved through repeated control visits. MPAs influenced initial COTS densities but only marginally influenced final hard coral cover following COTS control. Water quality improvement programs have achieved only marginal reductions in river nutrient loads delivered to the GBR and the study region. This, a subsequent COTS outbreak, and declining coral cover across the region suggest their contributions are negligible. These findings support manual control as the most direct, and only effective, means of reducing COTS densities and improving hard coral cover currently available at a site. We provide recommendations for improving control program effectiveness with application to supporting reef resilience across the Indo-Pacific.

Diet flexibility and growth of the early herbivorous juvenile crown-of-thorns sea star, implications for its boom-bust population dynamics

The ecology of the early herbivorous juvenile stage of the crown-of-thorns sea star (COTS, Acanthaster spp.) is poorly understood, yet the success of this life stage is key to generating population outbreaks that devastate coral reefs. Crustose coralline algae (CCA) has been considered to be the main diet of herbivorous juveniles. In this study, we show that COTS can avail of a range of algal food. Juveniles were reared on CCA, Amphiroa sp., and biofilm, and survived for 10 months on all three diets. The juveniles fed CCA and Amphiroa sp. reached 15–16.5 mm diameter at ~ 6 months and maintained this size for the rest the experiment (an additional ~4 months). Juveniles fed biofilm grew more slowly and to a smaller maximum size (~3 mm diameter). However, when juveniles were switched from biofilm to CCA they resumed growth to a new asymptotic size (~13.5 mm, 13–20 months). In diet choice experiments, juveniles did not show a preference between Amphiroa sp. and CCA, but generally avoided biofilm. Our results show that juvenile COTS grew equally well on CCA and Amphiroa sp. and can subsist on biofilm for months. Some juveniles, mostly from the biofilm diet treatment, decreased in size for a time and this was followed by recovery. Flexibility in diet, growth, and prolonged maintenance of asymptotic size indicates capacity for growth plasticity in herbivorous juvenile COTS. There is potential for juvenile COTS to persist for longer than anticipated and increase in number as they wait for the opportunity to avail of coral prey. These findings complicate our ability to predict recruitment to the corallivorous stage and population outbreaks following larval settlement and the ability to understand the age structure of COTS populations.

DNA-based identification of predators of the corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris) from fish faeces and gut contents

The corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS, Acanthaster spp.) has been linked with the widespread loss of scleractinian coral cover on Indo-Pacific reefs during periodic population outbreaks. Here, we re-examine CoTS consumption by coral reef fish species by using new DNA technologies to detect Pacific Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris) in fish faecal and gut content samples. CoTS DNA was detected in samples from 18 different coral reef fish species collected on reefs at various stages of CoTS outbreaks in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, nine of which had not been previously reported to feed on CoTS. A comprehensive set of negative and positive control samples confirmed that our collection, processing and analysis procedures were robust, although food web transfer of CoTS DNA cannot be ruled out for some fish species. Our results, combined with the (i) presence of CoTS spines in some samples, (ii) reported predation on CoTS gametes, larvae and settled individuals, and (iii) known diet information for fish species examined, strongly indicate that direct fish predation on CoTS may well be more common than is currently appreciated. We provide recommendations for specific management approaches to enhance predation on CoTS by coral reef fishes, and to support the mitigation of CoTS outbreaks and reverse declines in hard coral cover.

Biogeographical variation in diurnal behaviour of Acanthaster planci versus Acanthaster cf. solaris

Crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS; Acanthaster spp.) are among the most extensively studied coral reef taxa, largely owing to their devastating impacts on live coral cover during population outbreaks. Much of this research has however, been conducted in the western Pacific, although it is now apparent that there are several distinct species of Acanthaster spp. across the Indo-Pacific. The purpose of this study was to test for biogeographical variation in behaviour, comparing between Acanthaster planci at Lankanfushi Island in the Maldives and Acanthaster cf. solaris at Rib Reef on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. The extent to which CoTS were exposed (cf. concealed within or beneath coral substrates) was substantially higher (63.14%) for A. planci at Lankanfushi Island, compared to 28.55% for A. cf. solaris at Rib Reef, regardless of time of day. More importantly, only 52% of individuals were exposed at night at Rib Reef compared to >97% at reefs around Lankanfushi Island. Biogeographic variation in the behaviour of Acanthaster spp. was independent of differences in the size structure of starfish and coral cover at specific study sites, but may be attributable to other environmental factors such as habitat complexity or prey availability. This is the first study to explicitly test for biogeographical differences in the biology and behaviour of Acanthaster spp., potentially linked to species-specific differences in the causes and explanations of population outbreaks. However, we did not find evidence at this stage of differences in behavior among regions, rather behavioural differences observed were most likely products of different environments.

Citizen Science, a promising tool for detecting and monitoring outbreaks of the crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster spp

Monitoring potentially devastating coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) populations at scales relevant to management is a challenging task. Here, we investigated a citizen science approach to detect COTS outbreaks and prioritize management responses. Between 2014 and 2018, 38 000 COTS were recorded through 641 online observation reports submitted across New Caledonia, Vanuatu and Fiji by private stakeholders (51%), NGOs (22%), business operator (11%), research/government agencies (16%). COTS were observed in multiple areas, including in remote/inhabited reefs where they had never been reported. A three-level classification was developed to discriminate risk areas and propose operational guidelines to streamline management actions. About two-thirds of reports had low abundances (<10 starfish sighted) and could be addressed with low priority. Verification surveys at 65 reef sites confirmed outbreaks in half of the cases, along with high peak densities (7 000 ind.ha-1). Combining professional and non-professional observers increased the detection range (+27%) and the number of COTS detections (+129%). Citizen reports were eventually followed by removal campaigns organized within diverse institutional frameworks. While citizen monitoring has intrinsic limitations, we advocate that it constitutes a complementary and promising approach to support the ongoing management efforts in all countries affected by COTS.

COTSMod: A spatially explicit metacommunity model of outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and coral recovery

Outbreaks of the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) have been responsible for 40% of the decline in coral cover on the GBR over the last 35 years. With the intensity and frequency of bleaching and cyclonic disturbances increasing, effectively managing these outbreaks may allow reefs an opportunity to recover from these cumulative impacts. Significant research effort has been directed toward developing regional scale models for COTS outbreaks, but these have yet to be fit explicitly to long term time series at the scale of the entire GBR, nor do previous research efforts incorporate explicit estimates of cumulative disturbance history. We developed a stage-based metapopulation model for COTS at a 1×1km resolution using long-term time series and modelled estimates of COTS larval connectivity, nutrient concentrations and important vital rates estimated from the literature. We coupled this metapopulation model to an existing spatially explicit model of coral cover growth, disturbance and recovery across the GBR from 1996 to 2017 to create a metacommunity model. Our results were validated against a spatially and temporally extensive dataset of COTS and coral cover across the GBR, predicting an average coral decline of 1.3% p.a. across the GBR, and accurately recreating coral cover trajectories (mean prediction error=7.1%) and COTS outbreak classification (accuracy=80%). Sensitivity analyses revealed that overall model accuracy was most sensitive to larval predation (boosted regression tree; relative importance=46.7%) and two parameters defining juvenile density dependent mortality (21.5% and 17.5%). The COTS model underestimated peak COTS densities particularly in the Swains and Townsville sectors of the reef, while overestimating COTS density during non-outbreak years. A better understanding of inter-annual variability in larval connectivity, and regionally variable density dependence for adult COTS life stages may improve model fit during these extreme outbreak events. Our model provides a platform to develop upon, and with improvements to estimates of larval connectivity and larval predation could be used to simulate the effects of implementing varying combinations of COTS interventions. This research highlights the importance of the early life history stages of COTS as drivers of outbreak dynamics, emphasizing the need for further empirical research to estimate these parameters.

Integrating experimental and distribution data to predict future species patterns

Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.

Effects of larvae density and food concentration on Crown-of-Thorns seastar (Acanthaster cf. solaris) development in an automated flow-through system

Coral-eating Crown-of-Thorns Sea stars (Acanthaster spp.) are major contributors to coral reef loss in the Indo-Pacific region. A release from food limitation of their planktotrophic larvae through enhanced pelagic productivity is one of the main hypothesis explaining population outbreaks (‘nutrient limitation hypothesis’). To improve the understanding of these outbreaks we developed an automated flow- through larvae rearing system that maintained food (microalgae) at set levels over the course of four 15d experiments. This resulted in stable food concentrations in experimental tanks. Increased algae concentrations had a significant positive effect on larval development and size at 10 and 15 days post fertilization (dpf). Larvae densities had no effect at 10 dpf. At 15 dpf greater larvae densities were associated with declines in larvae size. Larval development was slowed under higher larvae densities. Thus, the effects of algae concentration and larvae density were additive at 15 dpf, with larvae under low densities at a given algae concentration being further developed than those under higher densities. The development of a flow-through system gives greater insight into the effect of algae and larvae concentrations on Acanthaster development, and the system can be applied to further test the nutrient-limitation hypothesis for present and future outbreaks.