A spatially integrated framework for assessing socioecological drivers of carnivore decline

Spatial Determinants of Livestock Depredation and Human Attitude Toward Wolves in Kailadevi Wildlife Sanctuary, Rajasthan, India

Gray wolves are capable of adapting to human-dominated landscapes by utilizing domestic prey as a source of food. Livestock depredation by wolves incurs a heavy economic loss to the villagers, resulting in negative attitudes toward the species and leading to increased conservation conflict. We used multi-state occupancy modeling on the interview data to assess the ecological factors governing livestock depredation by wolves. We also assessed the socio-demographic factors that may govern the attitude of villagers toward the wolf using ordinal regression. Over the past year, 64% of respondents reported a loss of livestock, in which goats (63%) comprised the major share, followed by sheep (22%) and cattle calves (15%). Wolves tend to hunt medium-sized domestic prey (sheep and goats) that commonly graze in open agricultural areas. The estimated livestock depredation probability of wolves was 0.84 (SD = ± 0.23). Depredation probability was influenced by habitat use by wolves, the extent of agricultural areas, scrubland area, and settlement size. Respondents with prior experience of livestock loss held more negative attitudes. Shepherds held more negative attitudes than other occupations. Increases in the respondent’s age and education level reflected a positive shift in attitudes toward the wolf. High economic loss caused by livestock depredation by wolves can lead to retaliatory persecution of wolves. Adequate compensation for livestock loss, along with better education and awareness can help lead to coexistence between wolves and humans in multi-use landscape of Kailadevi Wildlife Sanctuary, Rajasthan, India.

Increasing Anthropogenic Disturbance Restricts Wildebeest Movement Across East African Grazing Systems

The ability to move is essential for animals to find mates, escape predation, and meet energy and water demands. This is especially important across grazing systems where vegetation productivity can vary drastically between seasons or years. With grasslands undergoing significant changes due to climate change and anthropogenic development, there is an urgent need to determine the relative impacts of these pressures on the movement capacity of native herbivores. To measure these impacts, we fitted 36 white-bearded wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) with GPS collars across three study areas in southern Kenya (Amboseli Basin, Athi-Kaputiei Plains, and Mara) to test the relationship between movement (e.g., directional persistence, speed, home range crossing time) and gradients of vegetation productivity (i.e., NDVI) and anthropogenic disturbance. As expected, wildebeest moved the most (21.0 km day–1; CI: 18.7–23.3) across areas where movement was facilitated by low human footprint and necessitated by low vegetation productivity (Amboseli Basin). However, in areas with moderate vegetation productivity (Athi-Kaputiei Plains), wildebeest moved the least (13.3 km day–1; CI: 11.0–15.5). This deviation from expectations was largely explained by impediments to movement associated with a large human footprint. Notably, the movements of wildebeest in this area were also less directed than the other study populations, suggesting that anthropogenic disturbance (i.e., roads, fences, and the expansion of settlements) impacts the ability of wildebeest to move and access available resources. In areas with high vegetation productivity and moderate human footprint (Mara), we observed intermediate levels of daily movement (14.2 km day–1; CI: 12.3–16.1). Wildebeest across each of the study systems used grassland habitats outside of protected areas extensively, highlighting the importance of unprotected landscapes for conserving mobile species. These results provide unique insights into the interactive effects of climate and anthropogenic development on the movements of a dominant herbivore in East Africa and present a cautionary tale for the development of grazing ecosystems elsewhere.

John FAV, Davies ZG. Drivers of Predator Killing by Rural Residents and Recommendations for Fostering Coexistence in Agricultural Landscapes

Predators inhabiting human-dominated landscapes are vulnerable to various anthropogenic actions, including people killing them. We assess potential drivers of predator killing in an agricultural landscape in southern Chile, and discuss the implications for policies and interventions to promote coexistence. We evaluate five different types of motivation: (i) sociodemographics and household economy; (ii) livestock loss; (iii) predator encounter rates; (iv) knowledge of legal protection (all native predators are currently protected); and, (v) tolerance to livestock predation. As the killing of native predators is illegal, the prevalence of this behavior by rural residents was estimated using a symmetrical forced-response randomized response technique (RRT), a method designed to ask sensitive questions. A total of 233 rural residents from randomly assigned sample units (4 km2) across the study region completed our questionnaire. More conspicuous species, such as hawks (Falconiformes sp), foxes (Lycalopex sp) and free-roaming domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris), were killed by a higher proportion of farmers than more cryptic species, like the felid güiña (Leopardus guigna), skunk (Conepatus chinga) and pumas (Puma concolor). The proportion of respondents admitting to killing predators was highest for hawks (mean = 0.46, SE = 0.08), foxes (mean = 0.29, SE = 0.08) and dogs (mean = 0.30, SE = 0.08) and lowest for güiña (mean = 0.10, SE = 0.09), which is the only species of conservation concern we examine (considered Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List). From our five motivation categories, past killing of predators was associated with higher reported predator encounter rates (guina, hawks), lower tolerance to livestock predation (hawks, dogs), higher reported livestock loss (dogs) and sociodemographics and household economy (foxes). Our results demonstrate that a one-size-fits-all approach to predator persecution is unlikely to reduce or eliminate illegal killings for the suite of species we examined. We identify and describe two main types of intervention that could foster coexistence, improvement of livestock management and domestic dog management in rural areas, as well as discussing the potential for social marketing.

Response of mesocarnivores to anthropogenic landscape intensification: activity patterns and guild temporal interactions

Carnivores face important anthropogenic threats in agricultural areas from habitat loss and fragmentation, disturbance by domestic free-roaming dogs and cats, and direct hunting by humans. Anthropogenic disturbances are shifting the activity patterns of wild animals, likely modifying species interactions. We estimated changes in the activity patterns of the mesocarnivore guild of agricultural landscapes of the La Araucanía region in southern Chile in response to land-use intensification, comparing intra- and interspecific activity patterns at low and high levels of forest cover, fragmentation, and land ownership subdivision. Our focal species comprise the güiña or kod-kod (Leopardus guigna), two fox species (Lycalopex culpaeus and L. griseus), a skunk (Conepatus chinga), and one native mustelid (Galictis cuja), in addition to free-roaming dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) and cats (Felis catus) and their main mammalian prey species (i.e., Rodentia and Lagomorpha). In 23,373 trap nights, we totaled 21,729 independent records of our focal species. Our results show tendencies toward nocturnality at high land-use intensification, with potential impacts on species fitness. Nocturnal mesocarnivores decreased their diurnal/crepuscular activity, while cathemeral activity shifted to nocturnal activity at high land-use intensification, but only when in sympatry with a competitor. High land-use intensification decreased the activity overlap between native and domestic mesocarnivores but increased the overlap between native mesocarnivores. High intensification also reduced overlap with prey species. Notably, foxes displayed peaks of activity opposing those of dogs, and plasticity in activity pattern when in sympatry with dogs, such as strategies to avoid encounters. We stress the need to suppress the free-roaming and unsupervised activity of dogs to mitigate impacts of high land-use intensification on mesocarnivores.

Urban wildlife in times of COVID-19: What can we infer from novel carnivore records in urban areas?

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic brought an unusual decrease in human activity associated with partial and total lockdowns. Simultaneously, a series of wildlife sightings-mainly in urban areas-have been brought to public attention and often attributed to lockdown measures. Here we report on a series of wild carnivore records, including threatened species, obtained through camera traps set in urban forests, campuses, suburbs, and peri-urban areas of two cities in Chile, during partial lockdown measures. Our records are novel for Chile, a country where urban carnivore ecology is mostly unknown, and include the detection of four native carnivores, including the vulnerable güiña (Leopardus guigna) and the endangered southern river otter (Lontra provocax). These records also constitute a valuable baseline collected during partial lockdown measures in two cities of the Global South. We emphasize, however, that these findings cannot be used to argue for or against an effect of lockdown measures on wildlife. More generally, we call for caution in the interpretation of seemingly novel carnivore records during periods of lockdown and stress the value of international collaboration in evaluating the effects of the Anthropause on wildlife.

Cross-species transmission of retroviruses among domestic and wild felids in human-occupied landscapes in Chile

Human transformation of natural habitats facilitates pathogen transmission between domestic and wild species. The guigna (Leopardus guigna), a small felid found in Chile, has experienced habitat loss and an increased probability of contact with domestic cats. Here, we describe the interspecific transmission of feline leukemia virus (FeLV) and feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) between domestic cats and guignas and assess its correlation with human landscape perturbation. Blood and tissue samples from 102 free-ranging guignas and 262 domestic cats were collected and analyzed by PCR and sequencing. Guigna and domestic cat FeLV and FIV prevalence were very similar. Phylogenetic analysis showed guigna FeLV and FIV sequences are positioned within worldwide domestic cat virus clades with high nucleotide similarity. Guigna FeLV infection was significantly associated with fragmented landscapes with resident domestic cats. There was little evidence of clinical signs of disease in guignas. Our results contribute to the understanding of the implications of landscape perturbation and emerging diseases.

New records of Leopardus guigna in its northern-most distribution in Chile: implications for conservation

We report new records of the wild felid Leopardus guigna in its northern-most distribution, in the southern Coquimbo and northern Valparaíso regions, in northern-central Chile. To our knowledge, these are the northern-most confirmed guigna records to date. We discuss implications for the conservation of these fragile populations in the face of different anthropic threats.

Epidemiology and molecular characterization of Carnivore protoparvovirus-1 infection in the wild felid Leopardus guigna in Chile

Landscape anthropization has been identified as one of the main drivers of pathogen emergence worldwide, facilitating pathogen spillover between domestic species and wildlife. The present study investigated Carnivore protoparvovirus-1 infection using molecular methods in 98 free-ranging wild guignas (Leopardus guigna) and 262 co-occurring owned, free-roaming rural domestic cats. We also assessed landscape anthropization variables as potential drivers of infection. Protoparvovirus DNA was detected in guignas across their entire distribution range, with observed prevalence of 13.3% (real-time PCR) and 9% (conventional PCR) in guignas, and 6.1% (conventional PCR) in cats. Prevalence in guigna did not vary depending on age, sex, study area or landscape variables. Prevalence was higher in juvenile cats (16.7%) than in adults (4.4%). Molecular characterization of the virus by amplification and sequencing of almost the entire vp2 gene (1,746 bp) from one guigna and five domestic cats was achieved, showing genetic similarities to canine parvovirus 2c (CPV-2c) (one guigna and one cat), feline panleukopenia virus (FPV) (one cat), CPV-2 (no subtype identified) (two cats), CPV-2a (one cat). The CVP-2c-like sequence found in a guigna clustered together with domestic cat and dog CPV-2c sequences from South America, suggesting possible spillover from a domestic to a wild species as the origin of infection in guigna. No clinical signs of disease were found in PCR-positive animals except for a CPV-2c-infected guigna, which had haemorrhagic diarrhoea and died a few days after arrival at a wildlife rescue centre. Our findings reveal widespread presence of Carnivore protoparvovirus-1 across the guigna distribution in Chile and suggest that virus transmission potentially occurs from domestic to wild carnivores, causing severe disease and death in susceptible wild guignas.

Gastrointestinal and cardiorespiratory endoparasites in the wild felid guigna (Leopardus guigna) in Chile: Richness increases with latitude and first records for the host species

Guignas (Leopardus guigna) are small felids closely associated with native forest habitats. In fragmented landscapes, they use vegetation corridors and forest remnants to move across the landscape. In these contexts, guignas may increase contact probabilities with domestic animals, being therefore relevant to assess their pathogens and parasites. The aim of this study was to characterize the helminth fauna in the gastrointestinal tract and cardiorespiratory system of guignas from central and southern Chile. Between 2015 and 2018, 33 dead free-ranging guignas were found road-killed or were collected from wildlife rescue centers. Thirty-two gastrointestinal tracts and 32 cardiorespiratory organs were analyzed through direct analysis and artificial digestion. We found 81.8% (27/33) guignas were positive for helminth endoparasites (84.4% (27/32) positive for gastrointestinal parasites, 37.5% (12/32) positive for cardiorespiratory parasites). Fourteen parasites were identified (7 at genus level and 7 at species level), with Angiostrongylus sp., Molineus sp., Oslerus sp. and Troglostrongylus sp. as first records in guignas. The most prevalent parasites were the species Toxascaris leonina, Toxocara cati and Uncinaria stenocephala. Uncinaria stenocephala showed the highest intensity of infection. Multiparasitism was observed in 76% of the animals. Significant differences in richness of endoparasites and prevalence of cardiorespiratory parasites were found between geographic zones; higher values in the southern zone are possibly due to favorable environmental characteristics for endoparasite development. There were no statistically significant differences between sexes. All the parasites found in this study have been previously reported in domestic cats. These results are valuable to understand parasite transmission at the domestic-wildlife interface; the possibility of endoparasite transmission between domestic cats and guignas should be clarified with molecular analysis.

•

The 81.8% of analyzed Leopardus guigna were positive for helminth parasites.

•

First report of Angiostrongylus sp., Molineus sp., Oslerus sp. and Troglostrongylus sp. in guignas.

•

Higher prevalence and diversity of cardiorespiratory parasites in guignas from southern Chile.

Remnants of native forests support carnivore diversity in the vineyard landscapes of central Chile

Carnivores play an important role in ecosystem functioning as apex predators. However, most carnivore species are threatened or have been extirpated in human-dominated landscapes. The Mediterranean region of central Chile is a biodiversity hotspot, but expansion of agricultural areas such as vineyards is degrading wildlife habitat. We estimated the species richness and composition of carnivore communities in remnant fragments of sclerophyllous forest-shrubland in the vineyard landscapes of central Chile to evaluate the effects of human disturbance at different spatial scales. We tested two hypotheses: (1) vineyard landscapes with higher levels of human disturbance support a lower diversity of native carnivores in fragments of remnant native vegetation compared to landscapes with larger areas of natural habitat, and (2) habitat specialists and generalists respond differentially to human influence at the habitat vs landscape spatial scale. We used camera traps at 12 sites across the study area and evaluated the impact of human disturbance indicators on the richness and detection frequency of carnivore species. We found that human population density negatively affected carnivore richness and was associated with a lower detection frequency of the Vulnerable guiña Leopardus guigna. The presence of domestic dogs also had a negative effect on the detection frequency of the guiña and the two native species of foxes, the culpeo Lycalopex culpaeus and South American grey fox Lycalopex griseus. We conclude that protecting remnants of native forest in vineyard landscapes is crucial for carnivore conservation in central Chile.

Assessing cross-species transmission of hemoplasmas at the wild-domestic felid interface in Chile using genetic and landscape variables analysis

The co-occurrence of domestic cats (Felis silvestris catus) and wild felids in rural landscapes can facilitate pathogen transmission. However, in the relatively-isolated regions of southern South America there have been no comprehensive studies to assess disease transmission risks between domestic cats and forest-dwelling wild felids such as guigna (Leopardus guigna). We evaluated hemoplasma infection and the possibility of transmission between domestic cats and guignas by comparing spatial and phylogenetic patterns of pathogen prevalence. Blood/spleen samples were collected from 102 wild guignas and 262 co-occurring rural domestic cats across the entire distribution range of guigna in Chile. Hemoplasma infection was assessed by direct sequencing of the 16S RNA gene. Infection with hemoplasmas was common and geographically widespread across different bioclimatic areas for both species. The most common feline Mycoplasma species in guigna and domestic cats were Candidatus M. haemominutum (CMhm) (15.7% guigna; 10.3% domestic cat) and Mycoplasma haemofelis (Mhf) (9.8% guigna, 6.1% domestic cat). A previously undescribed Mycoplasma sp. sequence was found in two guignas and one cat. Continuous forest-landscapes were associated with higher hemoplasma-prevalence in guignas. Shared hemoplasma nucleotide sequence types between guigna and domestic cats were rare, suggesting that cross-species transmission between guignas and domestic cats may occur, but is probably uncommon. Ectoparasites, which have been linked with hemoplasma transmission, were not found on guignas and were infrequent on domestic cats. Our results suggest that transmission pathways vary among hemoplasma species and, contrary to our predictions, domestic cats did not appear to be the main driver of hemoplasma infection in guignas in these human-dominated landscapes.

Spatially explicit power analysis for detecting occupancy trends for multiple species

Assessing the statistical power to detect changes in wildlife populations is a crucial yet often overlooked step when designing and evaluating monitoring programs. Here, we developed a simulation framework to perform spatially explicit statistical power analysis of biological monitoring programs for detecting temporal trends in occupancy for multiple species. Using raster layers representing the spatial variation in current occupancy and species-level detectability for one or multiple observation methods, our framework simulates changes in occupancy over space and time, with the capacity to explicitly model stochastic disturbances at monitoring sites (i.e., dynamic landscapes). Once users specify the number and location of sites, the frequency and duration of surveys, and the type of detection method(s) for each species, our framework estimates power to detect occupancy trends, both across the landscape and/or within nested management units. As a case study, we evaluated the power of a long-term monitoring program to detect trends in occupancy for 136 species (83 birds, 33 reptiles, and 20 mammals) across and within Kakadu, Litchfield, and Nitmiluk National Parks in northern Australia. We assumed continuation of an original monitoring design implemented since 1996, with the addition of camera trapping. As expected, power to detect trends was sensitive to the direction and magnitude of the change in occupancy, detectability, initial occupancy levels, and the rarity of species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring has at least an 80% chance at detecting a 50% decline in occupancy for 22% of the modeled species across the three parks over the next 15 yr. Monitoring is more likely to detect increasing occupancy trends, with at least an 80% chance at detecting a 50% increase in 87% of species. The addition of camera-trapping increased average power to detect a 50% decline in mammals compared with using only live trapping by 63%. We provide a flexible tool that can help decision-makers design and evaluate monitoring programs for hundreds of species at a time in a range of ecological settings, while explicitly considering the distribution of species and alternative sampling methods.

Examining human-carnivore interactions using a socio-ecological framework: sympatric wild canids in India as a case study

Many carnivores inhabit human-dominated landscapes outside protected reserves. Spatially explicit assessments of carnivore distributions and livestock depredation patterns in human-use landscapes are crucial for minimizing negative interactions and fostering coexistence between people and predators. India harbours 23% of the world's carnivore species that share space with 1.3 billion people in approximately 2.3% of the global land area. We examined carnivore distributions and human-carnivore interactions in a multi-use forest landscape in central India. We focused on five sympatric carnivore species: Indian grey wolf Canis lupus pallipes, dhole Cuon alpinus, Indian jackal Canis aureus indicus, Indian fox Vulpes bengalensis and striped hyena Hyaena hyaena. Carnivore occupancy ranged from 12% for dholes to 86% for jackals, mostly influenced by forests, open scrublands and terrain ruggedness. Livestock/poultry depredation probability in the landscape ranged from 21% for dholes to greater than 95% for jackals, influenced by land cover and livestock- or poultry-holding. The five species also showed high spatial overlap with free-ranging dogs, suggesting potential competitive interactions and disease risks, with consequences for human health and safety. Our study provides insights on factors that facilitate and impede co-occurrence between people and predators. Spatial prioritization of carnivore-rich areas and conflict-prone locations could facilitate human-carnivore coexistence in shared habitats. Our framework is ideally suited for making socio-ecological assessments of human-carnivore interactions in other multi-use landscapes and regions, worldwide.

A spatially integrated framework for assessing socioecological drivers of carnivore decline

Habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation are key threats to the long‐term persistence of carnivores, which are also susceptible to direct persecution by people. Integrating natural and social science methods to examine how habitat configuration/quality and human–predator relations may interact in space and time to effect carnivore populations within human‐dominated landscapes will help prioritise conservation investment and action effectively.

We propose a socioecological modelling framework to evaluate drivers of carnivore decline in landscapes where predators and people coexist. By collecting social and ecological data at the same spatial scale, candidate models can be used to quantify and tease apart the relative importance of different threats.

We apply our methodological framework to an empirical case study, the threatened güiña (Leopardus guigna) in the temperate forest ecoregion of southern Chile, to illustrate its use. Existing literature suggests that the species is declining due to habitat loss, fragmentation and persecution in response to livestock predation. Data used in modelling were derived from four seasons of camera‐trap surveys, remote‐sensed images and household questionnaires.

Occupancy dynamics were explained by habitat configuration/quality covariates rather than by human–predator relations. Güiñas can tolerate a high degree of habitat loss (>80% within a home range). They are primarily impacted by fragmentation and land subdivision (larger farms being divided into smaller ones). Ten per cent of surveyed farmers (N = 233) reported illegally killing the species over the past decade.

Synthesis and applications. By integrating ecological and social data, collected at the same spatial scale, within a single modelling framework, our study demonstrates the value of an interdisciplinary approach to assessing the potential threats to a carnivore. It has allowed us to tease apart effectively the relative importance of different potential extinction pressures for the güiña (Leopardus guigna), make informed conservation recommendations and prioritise where future interventions should be targeted. We have identified that human‐dominated landscapes with large intensive farms can be of conservation value, as long as an appropriate network of habitat patches is maintained within the matrix. Conservation efforts to secure the long‐term persistence of the species should focus on reducing habitat fragmentation rather than human persecution.

By integrating ecological and social data, collected at the same spatial scale, within a single modelling framework, our study demonstrates the value of an interdisciplinary approach to assessing the potential threats to a carnivore. It has allowed us to tease apart effectively the relative importance of different potential extinction pressures for the güiña (Leopardus guigna), make informed conservation recommendations and prioritise where future interventions should be targeted. We have identified that human‐dominated landscapes with large intensive farms can be of conservation value, as long as an appropriate network of habitat patches is maintained within the matrix. Conservation efforts to secure the long‐term persistence of the species should focus on reducing habitat fragmentation rather than human persecution.