Setting ecological expectations for adaptive management of marine protected areas

Marine reserves promote cycles in fish populations on ecological and evolutionary time scales

Marine reserves are considered essential for sustainable fisheries, although their effectiveness compared to traditional fisheries management is debated. The effect of marine reserves is mostly studied on short ecological time scales, whereas fisheries-induced evolution is a well-established consequence of harvesting. Using a size-structured population model for an exploited fish population of which individuals spend their early life stages in a nursery habitat, we show that marine reserves will shift the mode of population regulation from low size-selective survival late in life to low, early-life survival due to strong resource competition. This shift promotes the occurrence of rapid ecological cycles driven by density-dependent recruitment as well as much slower evolutionary cycles driven by selection for the optimal body to leave the nursery grounds, especially with larger marine reserves. The evolutionary changes increase harvesting yields in terms of total biomass but cause disproportionately large decreases in yields of larger, adult fish. Our findings highlight the importance of carefully considering the size of marine reserves and the individual life history of fish when managing eco-evolutionary marine systems to ensure both population persistence as well as stable fisheries yields.

Ecosystem services in connected catchment to coast ecosystems: Monitoring to detect emerging trends

There is an increasing need for long-term monitoring of ecosystems and their services to inform on-ground management. The supply of many ecosystem services relies on connections that span multiple ecosystems. Monitoring the underlying condition of interconnected ecosystems is therefore required to track effectiveness of past interventions and identify impending change. Here we test the performance of indicators of ecosystem services with the aim of identifying the time-scales over which indicators of ecosystem services responded to change. We chose a case-study of a catchment in Northern Australia, where water resource development is a threat to the river flows that support vegetation growth and the life-cycle of coastal fishery species. We developed a novel approach to performance testing that drew on state-space modelling to capture ecological dynamics, and structural equation modelling to capture covariation in indicator time series. We first quantified covariation among three ecological indicators that had time-series data: pasture biomass, vegetation greenness and barramundi catch per unit effort. Higher values of all indicators occurred in years with greater river flow. We then predicted the emergence times for each indicator, as the time taken for a trend in an indicator to emerge from the background of natural variation. Emergence times were > 10 years in all cases, quantified at 80 % and higher confidence levels. Past trends and current status of ecosystem service flows are often used by decision makers to directly inform near-term actions, particularly for provisioning services (such as barramundi catch) due to their important contribution to regional economies. We found that ecological indicators could be used to assess historical performance over decadal timespans, but not as short-term indicators of recent change. More generally, we offer an approach to performance testing of indicators. This approach could be useful for quantifying timescales of ecosystem response in systems where cross-ecosystem connections are important.

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia-Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds.

Environmental Drivers and Social Structure Features behind the Low Reproductive Success of Dusky Groupers Epinephelus marginatus (Lowe, 1834) in a Mediterranean Marine Protected Area

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are considered key tools for achieving the sustainability of coastal fisheries by allowing habitat and species conservation by means of use regulations and active management. The effects of protection are more visible in slow-growing, high site fidelity and late-maturing species such as dusky grouper, a flagship species for all the fishermen and divers in the Mediterranean Sea. We studied the reproductive behavior of dusky grouper at Tabarca Island Marine Protected Area (TIMPA) in order to: (a) describe its temporal pattern; (b) evaluate the relationships among reproductive behavior and environmental factors and (c) verify the effects of social structure on reproductive activity. We observed all the behavior patterns previously reported in other studies besides the final spawn event. Our results evidenced that the monthly average density of dusky groupers tended to increase when temperature rose close to the seabed and without defined temporal limits for reproductive behavior. Among the environmental factors considered, visibility exhibited a very strong effect on the reproductive behavior of dusky grouper, interacting significantly with seabed temperature and thermocline. Regarding the effects of social structure, reproductive activity was positively correlated with the presence of large-sized individuals. We have discussed the differential facts of the reproductive activity of dusky groupers observed at TIMPA relating the results to the biogeographical location, the patterns of the environmental drivers (such as the seabed temperature per day, the thermocline, the visibility, the stream force, the photoperiod and the divers per day) and the structure of the habitat. These negative results contrast with the existing knowledge and generate new working hypotheses useful to improve the efficiency of MPAs and the sustainability of coastal fisheries.

Recruitment variability and sampling design interact to influence the detectability of protected area effects

Correctly identifying the effects of a human impact on a system is a persistent challenge in ecology, driven partly by the variable nature of natural systems. This is particularly true in many marine fishery species, which frequently experience large temporal fluctuations in recruitment that produce interannual variations in populations. This variability complicates efforts to maintain stocks at management targets or detect the effects of rebuilding efforts. We address this challenge in the context of no-take marine reserves by exploring how variable larval recruitment could interact with the timing of reserve establishment and choice of sampling design to affect population dynamics and the detectability of reserve effects. To predict population changes in the years following a no-take reserve implementation, we first tested for periodicity in larval recruitment in an important U.S. Pacific coast recreational fishery species (kelp bass, Paralabrax clathratus) and then included that pattern in a population model. We also used this model to determine the detectability of population increases under alternative sampling approaches and minimum age sampled. Kelp bass larval recruitment in the Channel Islands, California, peaked every about six (major) and about two (minor) years. Our model showed that establishing a reserve during a peak or trough enhanced or delayed, respectively, the post-reserve population increases. However, establishing a reserve during a recruitment peak could obscure a failing reserve, that is, a reserve that is unable to secure longer-term metapopulation persistence. Recruitment peaks and troughs also interacted with sampling design to affect the detectability of reserve effects. Designs that compared inside-outside were the most robust to variable recruitment, but failed to capture whether the reserve has improved metapopulation growth. Designs that included a time element (e.g., before-after) are more suited to assessing reserve effectiveness, but were sensitive to recruitment variation and detectability can change year-to-year. Notably, detectability did not always increase monotonically with reserve age; the optimal time for detectability depended on the minimum age of organisms sampled and was greatest when the cohort of a major recruitment peak first appeared in the sampling. We encourage managers to account for variable recruitment when planning monitoring and assessment programs.

Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3-7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23-148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was -7% (90% credible interval: -31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.

Transient dynamics during kelp forest recovery from fishing across multiple trophic levels

Outcomes of management efforts to recover or restore populations of harvested species can be highly dependent on environmental and community context. Predator-prey interactions can alter recovery trajectories, and the timing of management actions within multi-trophic level harvest scenarios may influence the dynamics of recovery and lead to management trade-offs. Recent work using a generalist predator-prey model suggests that management promoting synchronized recovery of predators and prey leads to faster and less variable recovery trajectories than sequential recovery (predator or prey first). However, more complex communities may require different management actions to minimize recovery time and variability. Here, we use a tri-trophic level rocky reef community dynamics model with size-structure and fisheries at multiple trophic levels to investigate the importance of three ecological processes to recovery of fished communities: (1) size-structured predation, (2) non-consumptive effects of predators on prey behavior, and (3) varying levels of recruitment. We also test the effects of initiating recovery from community states associated with varying degrees of fishery-induced degradation and develop a simulation in which the basal resource (kelp) is harvested. In this system, a predator-first closure generally leads to the least volatile and quickest recovery, whether from a kelp forest, urchin barren, or intermediate community state. The benefits gained by selecting this strategy are magnified when recovering from the degraded community, the urchin barren, because initial conditions in the degraded state lead to lengthy recovery times. However, the shape of the size-structured predation relationship can strongly affect recovery volatility, where the differences between alternate management strategies are negated with size-independent predation. External recruitment reduces return times by bolstering the predatory lobster population. These results show that in a tightly linked tri-trophic level food web with top-down control, a predator-first fishery closure can be the most effective strategy to reduce volatility and shorten recovery, particularly when the system is starting from the degraded community state. Given the ubiquity of top predator loss across many ecosystems, we highlight the value of incorporating insights from community ecology into ecosystem management.

eDNA metabarcoding as a biomonitoring tool for marine protected areas

Monitoring of marine protected areas (MPAs) is critical for marine ecosystem management, yet current protocols rely on SCUBA-based visual surveys that are costly and time consuming, limiting their scope and effectiveness. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is a promising alternative for marine ecosystem monitoring, but more direct comparisons to visual surveys are needed to understand the strengths and limitations of each approach. This study compares fish communities inside and outside the Scorpion State Marine Reserve off Santa Cruz Island, CA using eDNA metabarcoding and underwater visual census surveys. Results from eDNA captured 76% (19/25) of fish species and 95% (19/20) of fish genera observed during pairwise underwater visual census. Species missed by eDNA were due to the inability of MiFish 12S barcodes to differentiate species of rockfishes (Sebastes, n = 4) or low site occupancy rates of crevice-dwelling Lythrypnus gobies. However, eDNA detected an additional 23 fish species not recorded in paired visual surveys, but previously reported from prior visual surveys, highlighting the sensitivity of eDNA. Significant variation in eDNA signatures by location (50 m) and site (~1000 m) demonstrates the sensitivity of eDNA to address key questions such as community composition inside and outside MPAs. Results demonstrate the utility of eDNA metabarcoding for monitoring marine ecosystems, providing an important complementary tool to visual methods.

Quantifying the statistical power of monitoring programs for marine protected areas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are increasingly established globally as a spatial management tool to aid in conservation and fisheries management objectives. Assessing whether MPAs are having the desired effects on populations requires effective monitoring programs. A cornerstone of an effective monitoring program is an assessment of the statistical power of sampling designs to detect changes when they occur. We present a novel approach to power assessment that combines spatial point process models, integral projection models (IPMs) and sampling simulations to assess the power of different sample designs across a network of MPAs. We focus on the use of remotely operated vehicle (ROV) video cameras as the sampling method, though the results could be extended to other sampling methods. We use empirical data from baseline surveys of an example indicator fish species across three MPAs in California, USA as a case study. Spatial models simulated time series of spatial distributions across sites that accounted for the effects of environmental covariates, while IPMs simulated expected trends over time in abundances and sizes of fish. We tested the power of different levels of sampling effort (i.e., the number of 500-m ROV transects) and temporal replication (every 1-3 yr) to detect expected post-MPA changes in fish abundance and biomass. We found that changes in biomass are detectable earlier than changes in abundance. We also found that detectability of MPA effects was higher in sites with higher initial densities. Increasing the sampling effort had a greater effect than increasing sampling frequency on the time taken to achieve high power. High power was best achieved by combining data from multiple sites. Our approach provides a powerful tool to explore the interaction between sampling effort, spatial distributions, population dynamics, and metrics for detecting change in previously fished populations.

Transient inconsistency between population density and fisheries yields without bycatch species extinction

Recent studies have demonstrated the great advantages of marine reserves in solving bycatch problems by maintaining the persistence (i.e., avoid extinction) of endangered species without sacrificing the fisheries yields of target species. However, transient phenomena rather than equilibrium states of population dynamics still require further research. Here, with a simple and general model, the transient dynamics of the target fish species are investigated under management which minimizes extinction risk of the bycatch species. An interesting finding is that fisheries yields can strongly fluctuate even if population density both inside and outside marine reserve only slightly varies (or vice versa), leading to transient inconsistency between the population densities and fisheries yields. This finding suggests that population density dynamics of the target fish species cannot be used to predict the transient phenomena of fisheries yields (or vice versa) in fisheries management. However, the unpredictability can be receded as the sensitivity analyses show that a large marine reserve size and low escapement rate can shorten the transient duration.

Influence of protogynous sex change on recovery of fish populations within marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly implemented as a conservation tool worldwide. In many cases, they are managed adaptively: the abundance of target species is monitored, and observations are compared to some model-based expectation for the trajectory of population recovery to ensure that the MPA is achieving its goals. Most previous analyses of the transient (short-term) response of populations to the cessation of fishing inside MPAs have dealt only with gonochore (fixed-sex) species. However, many important fishery species are protogynous hermaphrodites (female-to-male sex-changing). Because size-selective harvest will predominantly target males in these species, harvesting not only reduces abundance but also skews the sex ratio toward females. Thus the response to MPA implementation will involve changes in both survival and sex ratio, and ultimately reproductive output. We used an age-structured model of a generic sex-changing fish population to compare transient population dynamics after MPA implementation to those of an otherwise similar gonochore population and examine how different features of sex-changing life history affect those dynamics. We examined both demographically open (most larval recruitment comes from outside the MPA) and demographically closed (most larval recruitment is locally produced) dynamics. Under both scenarios, population recovery of protogynous species takes longer when fishing was more intense pre-MPA (as in gonochores), but also depends heavily on the mating function, the degree to which the sex ratio affects reproduction. If few males are needed and reproduction is not affected by a highly female-biased sex ratio, then population recovery is much faster; if males are a limiting resource, then increases in abundance after MPA implementation are much slower than for gonochores. Unfortunately, the mating function is largely unknown for fishes. In general, we expect that most protogynous species with haremic mating systems will be in the first category (few males needed), though there is at least one example of a fish species (though not a sex-changing species) for which males are limiting. Thus a better understanding of the importance of male fish to population dynamics is needed for the adaptive management of MPAs.

Setting expected timelines of fished population recovery for the adaptive management of a marine protected area network

Adaptive management of marine protected areas (MPAs) requires developing methods to evaluate whether monitoring data indicate that they are performing as expected. Modeling the expected responses of targeted species to an MPA network, with a clear timeline for those expectations, can aid in the development of a monitoring program that efficiently evaluates expectations over appropriate time frames. Here, we describe the expected trajectories in abundance and biomass following MPA implementation for populations of 19 nearshore fishery species in California. To capture the process of filling in the age structure truncated by fishing, we used age-structured population models with stochastic larval recruitment to predict responses to MPA implementation. We implemented both demographically open (high larval immigration) and closed (high self-recruitment) populations to model the range of possible trajectories as they depend on recruitment dynamics. From these simulations, we quantified the time scales over which anticipated increases in abundance and biomass inside MPAs would become statistically detectable. Predicted population biomass responses range from little change, for species with low fishing rates, to increasing by a factor of nearly seven, for species with high fishing rates before MPA establishment. Increases in biomass following MPA implementation are usually greater in both magnitude and statistical detectability than increases in abundance. For most species, increases in abundance would not begin to become detectable for at least 10 years after implementation. Overall, these results inform potential indicator metrics (biomass), potential indicator species (those with a high fishing : natural mortality ratio), and time frame (>10 yr) for MPA monitoring assessment as part of the adaptive management process.