Tropical phenology: Recent advances and perspectives

Effects of ENSO events on the intensity, seasonality, and diversity of reproductive phenology of Miconia (Melastomataceae) species in tropical rainforest

We evaluated the phenology and reproductive phenological diversity of three sympatric species of Miconia in a gallery forest in the Chapada Diamantina mountains, Bahia, Brazil. The reproductive phenophases (bud, flower, immature fruit, and mature fruit) of M. alborufescens (N=38), M. holosericea (N=46), and M. prasina (N=44) were evaluated monthly, between June/2008 and June/2015. The Fournier index was used to assess the intensities of the reproductive phenophases; synchrony and seasonality were analyzed using circular statistics and the Rayleigh (Z) test. The Frideman and Wilcoxon tests were used to verify interannual variations in phenological patterns. Reproductive phenological diversity was measured by calculating the Shannon-Wiener index; ANOVA tested possible differences in the means of diversity among the different years. The reproductive phenophases of the studied Miconia species occurred sequentially (M. alborufescens, then M. holoserica, followed by M. prasina), in the transition between the dry and rainy seasons, with little overlap between them. In general, the species showed seasonal and synchronic phenological patterns, with some variations that coincided with El Niño and/or La Niña events, e.g., demonstrating changes in the periodicity, synchrony, and intensity of their phenophases. The intensity of fruiting, for example, showed increases during La Niña years. Reproductive phenological diversity appears to respond to climate changes resulting from El Niño events and periods of prolonged drought, with high Shannon-Wiener index values. The results also suggest that the effects of global climatic phenomena (El Niño and La Niña) that alter regional climatic seasonality can also cause variations in the reproductive phenological rhythms of the Miconia species studied.

Quantification and Qualification of Floral Patterns of Coffea arabica L. in Colombia

The phenological patterns of coffee flowering in Colombia have typically been studied in a descriptive way, with knowledge from an inferential perspective being scarce. The present study evaluated the effect of geographic location and accession on the floral patterns and phenological descriptors of Coffea arabica L. Fifteen accessions from the Colombian coffee collection (four tall and eleven short) were planted in the departments of Cesar, Caldas, Quindío and Cauca (Colombia). The number of flower buds per branch per plant per evaluated accession was recorded weekly during four flowering semesters. Subsequently, the phenological flowering descriptors, namely synchrony among individuals, intraindividual temporal variability and number of events were calculated. The data were analyzed descriptively, and then the inferential component was conducted using analysis of variance for a two-factor additive model and randomization restriction. The results showed that there are two flowering patterns according to the expression of flowering in the floral cycles, the "annual" class in the department of Cesar and the "continual" class in the departments of Caldas, Quindío and Cauca. The phenological descriptors show differences between the departments according to the coffee zone to which it belongs (northern, central or southern). In turn, the floral pattern of each area can be linked to the latitudinal change in daily sunshine, as well as to the distribution of rainfall and temperature, in a very broad sense and based on the literature. The data did not provide statistical evidence to suggest differences among the accessions or between the tree sizes evaluated.

Destabilizing effect of climate change on the persistence of a short-lived primate

Seasonal tropical environments are among those regions that are the most affected by shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes under climate change, with potentially severe consequences for wildlife population persistence. This persistence is ultimately determined by complex demographic responses to multiple climatic drivers, yet these complexities have been little explored in tropical mammals. We use long-term, individual-based demographic data (1994 to 2020) from a short-lived primate in western Madagascar, the gray mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus), to investigate the demographic drivers of population persistence under observed shifts in seasonal temperature and rainfall. While rainfall during the wet season has been declining over the years, dry season temperatures have been increasing, with these trends projected to continue. These environmental changes resulted in lower survival and higher recruitment rates over time for gray mouse lemurs. Although the contrasting changes have prevented the study population from collapsing, the resulting increase in life-history speed has destabilized an otherwise stable population. Population projections under more recent rainfall and temperature levels predict an increase in population fluctuations and a corresponding increase in the extinction risk over the next five decades. Our analyses show that a relatively short-lived mammal with high reproductive output, representing a life history that is expected to closely track changes in its environment, can nonetheless be threatened by climate change.

New directions in tropical phenology

Earth's most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a 'temperate phenological paradigm' expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical - and temperate - phenology.

Impacts of climate change on reproductive phenology in tropical rainforests of Southeast Asia

In humid forests in Southeast Asia, many species from dozens of plant families flower gregariously and fruit synchronously at irregular multi-year intervals^1-4. Little is known about how climate change will impact these community-wide mass reproductive events. Here, we perform a comprehensive analysis of reproductive phenology and its environmental drivers based on a monthly reproductive phenology record from 210 species in 41 families in Peninsular Malaysia. We find that the proportion of flowering and fruiting species decreased from 1976 to 2010. Using a phenology model, we find that 57% of species in the Dipterocarpaceae family respond to both drought and low-temperature cues for flowering. We show that low-temperature flowering cues will become less available in the future in the RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, leading to decreased flowering opportunities of these species in a wide region from Thailand to the island of Borneo. Our results highlight the vulnerability of and variability in phenological responses across species in tropical ecosystems that differ from temperate and boreal biomes.

A cross-scale approach to unravel the molecular basis of plant phenology in temperate and tropical climates

Plants have evolved to time their leafing, flowering and fruiting in appropriate seasons for growth, reproduction and resting. As a consequence of their adaptation to geographically different environments, there is a rich diversity in plant phenology from temperate and tropical climates. Recent progress in genetic and molecular studies will provide numerous opportunities to study the genetic basis of phenological traits and the history of adaptation of phenological traits to seasonal and aseasonal environments. Integrating molecular data with long-term phenology and climate data into predictive models will be a powerful tool to forecast future phenological changes in the face of global environmental change. Here, we review the cross-scale approach from genes to plant communities from three aspects: the latitudinal gradient of plant phenology at the community level, the environmental and genetic factors underlying the diversity of plant phenology, and an integrated approach to forecast future plant phenology based on genetically informed knowledge. Synthesizing the latest knowledge about plant phenology from molecular, ecological and mathematical perspectives will help us understand how natural selection can lead to the further evolution of the gene regulatory mechanisms in phenological traits in future forest ecosystems.

Monitoring Forest Phenology in a Changing World

Plant phenology is strongly interlinked with ecosystem processes and biodiversity. Like many other aspects of ecosystem functioning, it is affected by habitat and climate change, with both global change drivers altering the timings and frequency of phenological events. As such, there has been an increased focus in recent years to monitor phenology in different biomes. A range of approaches for monitoring phenology have been developed to increase our understanding on its role in ecosystems, ranging from the use of satellites and drones to collection traps, each with their own merits and limitations. Here, we outline the trade-offs between methods (spatial resolution, temporal resolution, cost, data processing), and discuss how their use can be optimised in different environments and for different goals. We also emphasise emerging technologies that will be the focus of monitoring in the years to follow and the challenges of monitoring phenology that still need to be addressed. We conclude that there is a need to integrate studies that incorporate multiple monitoring methods, allowing the strengths of one to compensate for the weaknesses of another, with a view to developing robust methods for upscaling phenological observations from point locations to biome and global scales and reconciling data from varied sources and environments. Such developments are needed if we are to accurately quantify the impacts of a changing world on plant phenology.

First come, first served: fruit availability to keystone bat species is potentially reduced by invasive macaques

Bats provide important pollination and seed-dispersal services to native angiosperms. However, many bat species are increasingly threatened by human disturbance, including the Mauritian flying fox (Pteropus niger), an endemic, keystone seed disperser. Native forests are scarce and P. niger frequently feeds in commercial plantations, where it now is considered a pest and subjected to frequent culling, thereby hindering conservation efforts. The invasive long-tailed macaque (Primates: Cercopithecidae, Macaca fascicularis) potentially competes with P. niger for scarce native fruits. We investigated the extent of dietary overlap between M. fascicularis and P. niger on Mauritius by sampling fruit drop for 17 tree species and identifying additional food species along line transects. Fruits of 13 of 17 species were eaten by animals and fruit production across tree replicates generally was low but highly variable. Although M. fascicularis ate only 4% of fruit overall, they consumed 20–100% of the fruits of seven species. Approximately 39% of dropped fruits were intact; based on field observations, most probably were dropped by M. fascicularis. Unlike P. niger, M. fascicularis ate mostly unripe fruit and depleted all fruit of certain species at an unripe stage. Hence, M. fascicularis may restrict P. niger’s diet and potentially disrupt seed dispersal of some tree species. Furthermore, small trees are more prone to fruit depletion at an unripe stage by macaques. In addition, asynchronous fruiting phenology across forest fragments may modulate the provision of native fruits to P. niger throughout the year. Although competition can be demonstrated only by controlled experimental studies that are logistically impossible in our scenario, our results highlight potential detrimental consequences that introduced frugivores may have on keystone seed dispersers. Finally, our results suggest that a more integrative and island-wide approach to forest restoration may be valuable for the conservation of P. niger.

VASCULAR EPIPHYTES: THE UGLY DUCKLING OF PHENOLOGICAL STUDIES

The phenology of vascular epiphytes, which represent account for about 10 % of the world’s flowering plants and perform important ecological functions, has been just partially explored. Since phenology is a key tool for the management and conservation of species, the objective of this review was to synthesize the information published so far about the phenology of vascular epiphytes, detect gaps of knowledge, and suggest future lines of investigation to understand the underlying mechanisms. We conducted an online search for articles in Google Scholar and in the ISI Web of Science database from 1800 to 2020, with different combinations of keywords. 107 studies addressing the phenology of different holo-epiphyte species were found; 88 % of the studies were performed in the Neotropic, especially in tropical and subtropical wet forests. The phenology of only ca.2% (418 spp.) of all reported epiphyte species has been explored. There is a bias toward the study of the flowering and fruiting phenology in members of the Orchidaceae (192 spp.) and Bromeliaceae (124 spp.) families. In general, the vegetative and reproductive phenology of epiphytes tends to be seasonal; however, there is a huge gap in our understanding of the proximate and ultimate factors involved. Future research should explicitly focus on studying those factors.

Allometric constraints and competition enable the simulation of size structure and carbon fluxes in a dynamic vegetation model of tropical forests (LM3PPA-TV)

Tropical forests are a key determinant of the functioning of the Earth system, but remain a major source of uncertainty in carbon cycle models and climate change projections. In this study, we present an updated land model (LM3PPA-TV) to improve the representation of tropical forest structure and dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs). The development and parameterization of LM3PPA-TV drew on extensive datasets on tropical tree traits and long-term field censuses from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. The model defines a new plant functional type (PFT) based on the characteristics of shade-tolerant, tropical tree species, implements a new growth allocation scheme based on realistic tree allometries, incorporates hydraulic constraints on biomass accumulation, and features a new compartment for tree branches and branch fall dynamics. Simulation experiments reproduced observed diurnal and seasonal patterns in stand-level carbon and water fluxes, as well as mean canopy and understory tree growth rates, tree size distributions, and stand-level biomass on BCI. Simulations at multiple sites captured considerable variation in biomass and size structure across the tropical forest biome, including observed responses to precipitation and temperature. Model experiments suggested a major role of water limitation in controlling geographic variation forest biomass and structure. However, the failure to simulate tropical forests under extreme conditions and the systematic underestimation of forest biomass in Paleotropical locations highlighted the need to incorporate variation in hydraulic traits and multiple PFTs that capture the distinct floristic composition across tropical domains. The continued pressure on tropical forests from global change demands models which are able to simulate alternative successional pathways and their pace to recovery. LM3PPA-TV provides a tool to investigate geographic variation in tropical forests and a benchmark to continue improving the representation of tropical forests dynamics and their carbon storage potential in ESMs.

Proposing the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis as a driver of inter-annual variation in tropical tree reproductive effort

PREMISE

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects tropical environmental conditions, potentially altering ecosystem function as El Niño events interact with longer-term climate change. Anomalously warm equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures affect rainfall and temperature throughout the tropics and coincide with altered leaf flush phenology and increased fruit production in wet tropical forests; however, the understanding of mechanisms underlying this pattern is limited. There is evidence that increases in tropical tree reproduction anticipate El Niño onset, motivating the continued search for a global driver of tropical angiosperm reproduction. We present the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis: that physical energy influx to the Earth's upper atmosphere and magnetosphere, generated by a positive anomaly in the solar wind preceding El Niño development, cues tropical trees to increase resource allocation to reproduction.

METHODS

We test this hypothesis using 19 years of data from Luquillo, Puerto Rico, correlating them with measures of solar-wind energy.

RESULTS

From 1994 to 2013, the solar-wind energy flux into Earth's magnetosphere (E_in ) was more strongly correlated with the number of species fruiting and flowering than the Niño 3.4 climate index, despite Niño 3.4 being previously identified as a driver of interannual increases in reproduction.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in the global magnetosphere and thermosphere conditions from increased solar-wind energy affect global atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns, principally by weakening the Walker circulation. We discuss the idea that these changes cue interannual increases in tropical tree reproduction and act through an unidentified mechanism that anticipates and synchronizes the reproductive output of the tropical trees with El Niño.