COVID-19: test, trace and isolate-new epidemiological data

How is "solidarity" understood in discussions about contact tracing apps? An overview

Background

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is much discussion about contact tracing apps, their use to contain the spread of the virus as well as the ethical, legal, and social aspects of their development, implementation, acceptance, and use. In these discussions, authors frequently mention "solidarity" when making key points in arguments. At the same time, authors rarely specify how they understand "solidarity". This lack of specification about how they understand "solidarity" can lead to misunderstandings in discussions.

Objective

To prevent such misunderstandings, it is important to specify how one understands "solidarity" when mentioning it in the discussions on contact tracing apps. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to elaborate how "solidarity" is understood in the context of contact tracing apps, i.e., how different authors understand "solidarity" when using it in discussions about these apps.

Methods

In order to find out how different authors understand "solidarity" when discussing contact tracing apps, I conduct a literature review. I collect papers from several databases, inductively work out central differences and similarities between the different uses of "solidarity", and use them to code and analyze relevant passages.

Results

In the final sample, five different understandings of "solidarity" in the context of contact tracing apps can be identified. These understandings differ in how different authors (1) imagine the basic concept of solidarity, i.e., what "solidarity" refers to, (2) how they temporally relate solidarity to contact tracing apps, and (3) how they perceive the causal interactions between solidarity and contact tracing apps, i.e., the different ways in which solidarity and contact tracing apps influence each other.

Conclusions

The five understandings of "solidarity" in the context of contact tracing apps presented here can serve as guidance for how "solidarity" can be understood in discussions-thus contributing to a better mutual understanding and preventing communicative misunderstandings.

Community and Campus COVID-19 Risk Uncertainty Under University Reopening Scenarios: Model-Based Analysis

BACKGROUND

Significant uncertainty has existed about the safety of reopening college and university campuses before the COVID-19 pandemic is better controlled. Moreover, little is known about the effects that on-campus students may have on local higher-risk communities.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to estimate the range of potential community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality under various university reopening plans and uncertainties.

METHODS

We developed campus-only, community-only, and campus × community epidemic differential equations and agent-based models, with inputs estimated via published and grey literature, expert opinion, and parameter search algorithms. Campus opening plans (spanning fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) were identified from websites and publications. Additional student and community exposures, infections, and mortality over 16-week semesters were estimated under each scenario, with 10% trimmed medians, standard deviations, and probability intervals computed to omit extreme outliers. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to inform potential effective interventions.

RESULTS

Predicted 16-week campus and additional community exposures, infections, and mortality for the base case with no precautions (or negligible compliance) varied significantly from their medians (4- to 10-fold). Over 5% of on-campus students were infected after a mean of 76 (SD 17) days, with the greatest increase (first inflection point) occurring on average on day 84 (SD 10.2 days) of the semester and with total additional community exposures, infections, and mortality ranging from 1-187, 13-820, and 1-21 per 10,000 residents, respectively. Reopening precautions reduced infections by 24%-26% and mortality by 36%-50% in both populations. Beyond campus and community reproductive numbers, sensitivity analysis indicated no dominant factors that interventions could primarily target to reduce the magnitude and variability in outcomes, suggesting the importance of comprehensive public health measures and surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

Community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality resulting from reopening campuses are highly unpredictable regardless of precautions. Public health implications include the need for effective surveillance and flexible campus operations.

The impact of COVID-19 on primary care: Insights from the National Health Service (NHS) and future recommendations

COVID-19 has changed health systems and services. In this commentary, we outline the impact COVID-19 has had on the delivery of primary health care, and on primary care teams, and describe the NHS response. We highlight the challenges of managing long-COVID and identify areas of importance for primary care in a post-COVID context. We describe ongoing public health measures and list recommendations for primary care for COVID-19 and future unknown pandemics. We conclude with salient points on the future of primary care.

Potential Community and Campus Covid-19 Outcomes Under University and College Reopening Scenarios

BACKGROUND

Significant uncertainty exists in many countries about the safety of, and best strategies for, reopening college and university campuses until the Covid-19 pandemic is better controlled. Little also is known about the effects on-campus students may have on local higher-risk communities. We aimed to estimate potential community and campus Covid-19 exposures, infections, and mortality due to various university reopening and precaution plans under current ranges of assumptions and uncertainties.

METHODS

We developed and calibrated campus-only, community-only, and campus-x-community epidemic differential equation and agent-based models. Input parameters for campus and surrounding communities were estimated via published and grey literature, scenario development, expert opinion, accuracy optimization algorithms, and Monte Carlo simulation; models were cross-validated against each other using February-June 2020 data from heterogeneous U.S. counties and states. Campus opening plans (spanning various fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) were identified from websites and publications. All scenarios were simulated assuming 16-week semesters and estimated ranges for Covid-19 prevalence among community residents and arriving students, precaution compliance, contact frequency, virus attack rates, and tracing and isolation effectiveness. Additional student and community exposures, infections, and mortality were estimated under each scenario, with 10% trimmed medians, standard deviations, and probability intervals computed to omit extreme outlier scenarios. Factorial analyses were conducted to identify intervention inputs with largest and smallest effects.

RESULTS

As a base case with no precautions (or no compliance), predicted 16-week student infections and mortality under normal operations ranged significantly from 471 to 9,495 (median: 2,286, SD: 2,627) and 0 to 123 (median: 9, SD: 14) per 10,000 students, respectively. The maximum active exposures across a semester was 15.76% of all students warranting tracing. Total additional community exposures, infections, and mortality ranged from 1 to 187, 13 to 820, and 1 to 21 per 10,000 residents, respectively. 1% and 5% of on-campus students were infected after a mean (SD) of 11 (3) and 76 (17) days, respectively; >10% students infected by the end of a semester in 34.8% of scenarios, with the greatest increase (first inflection point) occurring on aver-age on day 84 (SD: 10.2 days). Common reopening precautions reduced infections by 24% to 26% and mortality by 36% to 50% in both populations. Uncertainties in many factors, however, produced tremendous variability in all results, ranging from medians by -67% to +342%.

CONCLUSIONS

Consequences on community and student Covid-19 exposures, infections, and mortality of reopening physical campuses are very highly unpredictable, depending on a combination of random chance, controllable (e.g. physical layouts), and uncontrollable (e.g. human behavior) factors. Implications include needs for criteria to adapt campus operations mid-semester, methods to detect when necessary, and contingency plans for doing so.