Updating the Emergency Department Algorithm: One Patch Is Not Enough

Cross-sectional analysis of avoidable emergency department visits before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 had a significant impact on Emergency Departments (ED) with early data suggesting an initial decline in avoidable ED visits. However, the sustained impact over time is unclear. In this study, we analyzed ED discharges over a two-year time period after the COVID-19 pandemic began and compared it with a control time period pre-pandemic to evaluate the difference in ED visit categories, including total, avoidable, and unavoidable visits.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study assessing the distribution of visits with ED discharges from two hospitals within a health system over a three-year time period (1/1/2019-12/31/2021). Visits were categorized using the expanded NYU-EDA algorithm modified to include COVID-19-related visits. Categories included: Emergent - Not Preventable/Avoidable, Emergent - Preventable/Avoidable, Emergent - Primary Care Treatable, Non-Emergent, Mental Health, Alcohol, Substance Abuse, Injury, and COVID-19. Chi-square testing was conducted to investigate differences within the time period before COVID-19 (1/1/2019-12/31/2019) and both initial (1/1/2020-12/31/2020) and delayed (1/1/2021-12/31/2021) COVID-19 time frames and ED visit categories, as well as post hoc testing using Fisher's exact tests with Bonferroni correction. ANOVA with post hoc Bonferroni testing was used to determine differences based on daily census for each ED visit category.

RESULTS

A total of 228,010 ED discharges (Hospital #1 = 126,858; Hospital #2 = 101,152) met our inclusion criteria over the three-year period. There was a significant difference in the distribution of NYU-EDA categories between the two time periods (pre-COVID-19 versus during COVID-19) for the combined hospitals (p < 0.001), Hospital #1 (p < 0.001), and Hospital #2 (p < 0.001). When examining daily ED discharges, there was a decline in all categories from 2019 to 2020 except for "Emergent - Not Preventable/Avoidable" which remained stable and "Substance Abuse" which increased. From 2020 to 2021, there were no differences in ED avoidable visits. However, there were increases in discharged visits related to "Injuries", "Alcohol", and "Mental health" and a decrease in "COVID-19".

CONCLUSION

Our study identified a sustained decline in discharged avoidable ED visits during the two years following the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was partially offset by the increase in COVID-19 visits. This work can help inform ED and healthcare systems in resource allocation, hospital staffing, and financial planning during future COVID-19 resurgences and pandemics.

Racial And Ethnic Disparities In Preventable Hospitalizations And ED Visits Five Years After ACA Medicaid Expansions

Medicaid expansions under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) dramatically increased access to insurance coverage. We examined whether the 2014 ACA Medicaid expansions also mitigated existing racial or ethnic disparities in preventable hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits. Using inpatient data from twenty-nine states and ED data from twenty-six states for the period 2011-18, we found that Medicaid expansions decreased disparities in preventable hospitalizations and ED visits between non-Hispanic Black and White nonelderly adults by 10 percent or more. There were no significant effects on disparities between Hispanic and non-Hispanic White nonelderly adults, possibly reflecting lower baseline differences and, separately, persisting coverage disparities. These findings highlight sustained improvements in community-level care for non-Hispanic Black populations, who historically lack access to care. Our findings also suggest access barriers experienced by Hispanic adults that need to be addressed beyond Medicaid eligibility expansion.

Health center use and hospital-based care among individuals dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid, 2012-2018

OBJECTIVE

To examine the relationship between federally qualified health center (FQHC) use and hospital-based care among individuals dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid.

DATA SOURCES

Data were obtained from 2012 to 2018 Medicare claims.

STUDY DESIGN

We modeled hospital-based care as a function of FQHC use, person-level factors, a Medicare prospective payment system (PPS) indicator, and ZIP code fixed effects. Outcomes included emergency department (ED) visits (overall and nonemergent), observation stays, hospitalizations (overall and for ambulatory care sensitive conditions), and 30-day unplanned returns. We stratified all models on the basis of eligibility and rurality.

DATA EXTRACTION METHODS

Our sample included individuals dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid for at least two full consecutive years, residing in a primary care service area with an FQHC. We excluded individuals without primary care visits, who died, or had end-stage renal disease.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

After the Medicare PPS was introduced, FQHC use in rural counties was associated with fewer ED and nonemergent ED visits per 100 person-years among both age-eligible (-14.8 [-17.5, -12.1]; -6.6 [-7.5, -5.6]) and disability-eligible duals (-11.3 [-14.4, -8.3]; -6 [-7.4, -4.6]) as well as a lower probability of observation stays (-0.8 pp age-eligible; -0.4 pp disability-eligible) and unplanned returns (-2.1 pp age-eligible; -1.9 pp disability-eligible). In urban counties, FQHC use was associated with more ED and nonemergent ED visits per 100 person-years (10.6 [8.4, 12.8]; 4.0 [2.6, 5.4]) among disability-eligible duals (a decrease of more than 60% compared with the pre-PPS period) and increases in the probability of hospitalization (1.1 pp age-eligible; 0.8 pp disability-eligible) and ACS hospitalization (0.5 pp age-eligible; 0.3 pp disability-eligible) (a decrease of roughly 50% compared with the pre-PPS period).

CONCLUSIONS

FQHC use is associated with reductions in hospital-based care among dual enrollees after introduction of the Medicare PPS. Further research is needed to understand how FQHCs can tailor care to best serve this complex population.

Appropriateness of emergency care use: a retrospective observational study based on professional versus patients' perspectives in Taiwan

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this study are to refine the measurement of appropriate emergency department (ED) use and to provide a natural observation of appropriate ED use rates based on professional versus patient perspectives.

SETTING

Taiwan has a population of 23 million, with one single-payer universal health insurance scheme. Taiwan has no limitations on ED use, and a low barrier to ED use may be a surrogate for natural observation of users' perspectives in ED use.

PARTICIPANTS

In 7 years, there were 1 835 860 ED visits from one million random samples of the National Health Insurance Database.

MEASURES

Appropriate ED use was determined according to professional standards, measured by the modified Billings New York University Emergency Department (NYU-ED) algorithm, and further analysed after the addition of prudent patient standards, measured by explicit process-based and outcome-based criteria.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to reflect the performance of appropriate ED use measures, and sensitivity analyses were conducted using different thresholds to determine the appropriateness of ED use. The generalised estimating equation model was used to measure the associations between appropriate ED use based on process and outcome criteria and covariates including sex, age, occupation, health status, place of residence, medical resources area, date and income level.

RESULTS

Appropriate ED use based on professional criteria was 33.5%, which increased to 63.1% when patient criteria were added. The AUC, which combines both professional and patient criteria, was high (0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

The appropriate ED use rate nearly doubled when patient criteria were added to professional criteria. Explicit process-based and outcome-based criteria may be used as a supplementary measure to the implicit modified Billings NYU-ED algorithm when determining appropriate ED use.

Determining preventable acute care spending among high-cost patients in a single-payer public health care system

BACKGROUND

Research has shown that a small proportion of patients account for the majority of health care spending. The objective of this analysis was to determine the amount and proportion of preventable acute care spending among high-cost patients.

METHODS

We examined a population-based sample of all adult high-cost patients using linked administrative health care data housed at ICES in Toronto, Ontario. High-cost patients were defined as those in and above the 90th percentile of the cost distribution. Preventable acute care (emergency department visits and hospitalisations) was defined using validated algorithms. We estimated costs of preventable and non-preventable acute care for high- and non-high-cost patients by category of visit/condition. We replicated our analysis for persistent high-cost patients and high-cost patients under 65 years and those 65 years and older.

RESULTS

We found that 10% of all acute care spending among high-cost patients was considered preventable; this figure was higher for non-high-cost patients (25%). The proportion of preventable acute care spending was higher for persistent high-cost patients (14%) and those 65 years and older (12%). Among ED visits, the largest portion of preventable care spending was for primary care treatable conditions; for hospitalisations, the highest proportions of preventable care spending were for COPD, bacterial pneumonia and urinary tract infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Although high-cost patients account for a substantial proportion of health care costs, there seems to be limited scope to prevent acute care spending among this patient population. Nonetheless, care coordination and improved access to primary care, and disease prevention may prevent some acute care.