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Paglino E, Lundberg DJ, Wrigley-Field E, Zhou Z, Wasserman JA, Raquib R, Chen YH, Hempstead K, Preston SH, Elo IT, Glymour MM, Stokes AC. Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2313661121. [PMID: 38300867 PMCID: PMC10861891 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2313661121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 02/03/2024] Open
Abstract
In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eugenio Paglino
- Department of Sociology and Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA19104
| | - Dielle J. Lundberg
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA02118
- Department of Health Systems and Population Health, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA98195
| | - Elizabeth Wrigley-Field
- Department of Sociology and Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN55455
| | - Zhenwei Zhou
- Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA02118
| | | | - Rafeya Raquib
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA02118
| | - Yea-Hung Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA94158
| | | | - Samuel H. Preston
- Department of Sociology and Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA19104
| | - Irma T. Elo
- Department of Sociology and Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA19104
| | - M. Maria Glymour
- Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA02118
| | - Andrew C. Stokes
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA02118
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Kilian C, Rehm J, Shield K, Manthey J. Changes in Alcohol-Specific Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 14 European Countries. SUCHT 2023; 69:285-293. [PMID: 39183774 PMCID: PMC11343567 DOI: 10.1024/0939-5911/a000841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/27/2024]
Abstract
Aim Exploring trends in 1) alcohol-specific mortality and 2) alcohol sales in European countries in the years before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Method Complete data on alcohol-specific mortality and alcohol sales were obtained for 14 European countries (13 EU countries and UK) for the years 2010 to 2020, with six countries having mortality data available up to 2021. Age-standardised mortality rates were calculated and descriptive statistics used. Results When compared to 2019, alcohol-specific mortality rates in 2020 increased by 7.7 % and 8.2 % for women and men, respectively. Increases in alcohol-specific mortality were seen in the majority of countries and continued in 2021. In contrast, alcohol sales declined by an average of 5.0 %. Conclusion Despite a drop in alcohol consumption, more people died due to alcohol-specific causes during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carolin Kilian
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), Toronto, Canada
| | - Jürgen Rehm
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), Toronto, Canada
- Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute (CAMH), Toronto, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto (UofT), Canada
- Department of Psychiatry (UofT), Toronto, Canada
- WHO European Region Collaborating Centre at Public Health Institute of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Centre for Interdisciplinary Addiction Research, University Medical Centre Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany
| | - Kevin Shield
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), Toronto, Canada
- Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute (CAMH), Toronto, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto (UofT), Canada
| | - Jakob Manthey
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Centre for Interdisciplinary Addiction Research, University Medical Centre Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany
- Department of Psychiatry, Medical Faculty, University of Leipzig, Germany
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Hughes C, Yim AD, Juarez C, Servello J, Thomas R, Passalacqua N, Soler A. Investigating identification disparities in forensic anthropology casework. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0290302. [PMID: 37910496 PMCID: PMC10619877 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290302] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2023] [Accepted: 08/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Forensic anthropology is shifting to reflect on the impact of its practices within the criminal justice context in important ways. Here, we contribute to this essential work by examining how decedent demographics as well as estimations of biological profile components are related to identification trends in forensic anthropology cases. The study uses data from more than 1,200 identified and unidentified forensic anthropology cases from three agencies (together representing a nation-wide sample). We found the following: i) multivariate analyses indicated that decedent sex, age, and race and/or ethnicity are not related to case identification rates in the pooled United States sample, ii) when identification rate differences do occur, they appear to be smaller effects, more agency-specific, and/or related to the context of a particular agency, iii) for the agency-specific sample with available data, there was no consistent evidence for a discrepancy in the duration of an identification investigation based on a decedent's sex, age, or race and/or ethnicity, iv) forensic anthropological estimations of sex, age, and ancestry can improve the odds of identification for decedents, although these are small effects, and v) reporting an ancestry estimation does not appear to impact decedent race representation among resolved unidentified person cases. Although previous studies have identified demographic discrepancies in other areas of the criminal justice system, the results presented here suggest that decedent demographic estimation practices by forensic anthropologists in general do not appear to be related to discrepancies in identification trends, but more research is needed to examine whether these findings hold. Contextual factors and practices specific to each investigative agency likely contribute to identification trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cris Hughes
- Department of Anthropology, University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America
- Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America
| | - An-Di Yim
- Department of Health and Exercise Sciences, Truman State University, Kirksville, Missouri, United States of America
- Forensic Science Program, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginiai, United States of America
| | - Chelsey Juarez
- Department of Anthropology, California State University Fresno, Fresno, California, United States of America
| | - John Servello
- Forensic Anthropology Unit, University of North Texas Center for Human Identification, Fort Worth, Texas, United States of America
| | - Richard Thomas
- Trace Evidence Unit, Laboratory Division, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Quantico, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Nicholas Passalacqua
- Anthropology and Sociology Department, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Angela Soler
- New York City Office of Chief Medical Examiner, New York City, New York, United States of America
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