Detecting population declines via monitoring the effective number of breeders (Nb )

Immediate Genetic Augmentation and Enhanced Habitat Connectivity Are Required to Secure the Future of an Iconic Endangered Freshwater Fish Population

Genetic diversity is rapidly lost from small, isolated populations by genetic drift. Measuring the level of genetic drift using effective population size (N e) is highly useful for management. Single-cohort genetic N e estimators approximate the number of breeders in one season (N b): a value < 100 signals likely inbreeding depression. Per-generation N e < 1000 estimated from multiple cohort signals reduced adaptive potential. Natural populations rarely meet assumptions of N e-estimation, so interpreting estimates is challenging. Macquarie perch is an endangered Australian freshwater fish threatened by severely reduced range, habitat loss, and fragmentation. To counteract low N e, augmented gene flow is being implemented in several populations. In the Murrumbidgee River, unknown effects of water management on among-site connectivity impede the design of effective interventions. Using DArT SNPs for 328 Murrumbidgee individuals sampled across several sites and years with different flow conditions, we assessed population structure, site isolation, heterozygosity, inbreeding, and N e. We tested for inbreeding depression, assessed genetic diversity and dispersal, and evaluated whether individuals translocated from Cataract Reservoir to the Murrumbidgee River bred, and interbred with local fish. We found strong genetic structure, indicating complete or partial isolation of river fragments. This structure violates assumptions of N e estimation, resulting in strongly downwardly biased N b estimates unless assessed per-site, highlighting the necessity to account for population structure while estimating N e. Inbreeding depression was not detected, but with low N b at each site, inbreeding and inbreeding depression are likely. These results flagged the necessity to address within-river population connectivity through flow management and genetic mixing through translocations among sites and from other populations. Three detected genetically diverse offspring of a translocated Cataract fish and a local parent indicated that genetic mixing is in progress. Including admixed individuals in estimates yielded lower N e but higher heterozygosity, suggesting heterozygosity is a preferable indicator of genetic augmentation.

Estimation of effective number of breeders and effective population size in an abundant and heavily exploited marine teleost

Obtaining reliable estimates of the effective number of breeders (N b) and generational effective population size (N e) for fishery-important species is challenging because they are often iteroparous and highly abundant, which can lead to bias and imprecision. However, recent advances in understanding of these parameters, as well as the development of bias correction methods, have improved the capacity to generate reliable estimates. We utilized samples of both single-cohort young of the year and mixed-age adults from two geographically and genetically isolated stocks of the Australasian snapper (Chrysophrys auratus) to investigate the feasibility of generating reliable N b and N e estimates for a fishery species. Snapper is an abundant, iteroparous broadcast spawning teleost that is heavily exploited by recreational and commercial fisheries. Employing neutral genome-wide SNPs and the linkage-disequilibrium method, we determined that the most reliable N b and N e estimates could be derived by genotyping at least 200 individuals from a single cohort. Although our estimates made from the mixed-age adult samples were generally lower and less precise than those based on a single cohort, they still proved useful for understanding relative differences in genetic effective size between stocks. The correction formulas applied to adjust for biases due to physical linkage of loci and age structure resulted in substantial upward modifications of our estimates, demonstrating the importance of applying these bias corrections. Our findings provide important guidelines for estimating N b and N e for iteroparous species with large populations. This work also highlights the utility of samples originally collected for stock structure and stock assessment work for investigating genetic effective size in fishery-important species.

Estimation of contemporary effective population size in plant populations: Limitations of genomic datasets

Effective population size (N e) is a pivotal evolutionary parameter with crucial implications in conservation practice and policy. Genetic methods to estimate N e have been preferred over demographic methods because they rely on genetic data rather than time-consuming ecological monitoring. Methods based on linkage disequilibrium (LD), in particular, have become popular in conservation as they require a single sampling and provide estimates that refer to recent generations. A software program based on the LD method, GONE, looks particularly promising to estimate contemporary and recent-historical N e (up to 200 generations in the past). Genomic datasets from non-model species, especially plants, may present some constraints to the use of GONE, as linkage maps and reference genomes are seldom available, and SNP genotyping is usually based on reduced-representation methods. In this study, we use empirical datasets from four plant species to explore the limitations of plant genomic datasets when estimating N e using the algorithm implemented in GONE, in addition to exploring some typical biological limitations that may affect N e estimation using the LD method, such as the occurrence of population structure. We show how accuracy and precision of N e estimates potentially change with the following factors: occurrence of missing data, limited number of SNPs/individuals sampled, and lack of information about the location of SNPs on chromosomes, with the latter producing a significant bias, previously unexplored with empirical data. We finally compare the N e estimates obtained with GONE for the last generations with the contemporary N e estimates obtained with the programs currentNe and NeEstimator.

Swinging back from the brink? Polygamous mating strategies revealed for an iconic threatened freshwater fish

Catastrophic fish death events are increasing in frequency and severity globally. A series of major recent fish deaths in the semi-arid lower Darling-Baaka river system (LDBR) of Australia are emblematic of these issues with tens of millions of native fish perishing. In 2018-2019 there was a major death event for Australia's largest freshwater fish, Murray cod (Maccullochella peelii). To aid the recovery and guide restoration activities of local Murray cod populations, it is essential to gather information on the mating strategies and effective population size following the fish death event. After the fish deaths, we collected larvae during the 2020 and 2021 breeding seasons and used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to provide insight mating strategies and to estimate effective population size. Larvae were detected in both years along the entire length of the LDBR. Sixteen percent of the inferred breeding individuals were found to contribute to multiple pairings, confirming a complex and polygamous mating system. A high frequency of polygamy was evident both within and between years with 100 % polygamy identified among parents that produced offspring in both 2020 and 2021 and 95 % polygamy identified among parents involved in multiple spawning events within years. Post-larval Murray cod samples collected between 2016 and 2021 were co-analysed to further inform kinship patterns. Again, monogamy was rare with no confirmed cases of the same male-female pair contributing to multiple breeding events within or between seasons. Effective population size based on Murray cod collected after the fish death event was estimated at 721.6 (CI 471-1486), though this has likely declined following a subsequent catastrophic fish death event in the LDBR in March 2023. Our data provide insight into the variability of Murray cod mating strategies, and we anticipate that this knowledge will assist in planning conservation actions to ultimately help recover a species in crisis.

Genomics and conservation: Guidance from training to analyses and applications

Environmental change is intensifying the biodiversity crisis and threatening species across the tree of life. Conservation genomics can help inform conservation actions and slow biodiversity loss. However, more training, appropriate use of novel genomic methods and communication with managers are needed. Here, we review practical guidance to improve applied conservation genomics. We share insights aimed at ensuring effectiveness of conservation actions around three themes: (1) improving pedagogy and training in conservation genomics including for online global audiences, (2) conducting rigorous population genomic analyses properly considering theory, marker types and data interpretation and (3) facilitating communication and collaboration between managers and researchers. We aim to update students and professionals and expand their conservation toolkit with genomic principles and recent approaches for conserving and managing biodiversity. The biodiversity crisis is a global problem and, as such, requires international involvement, training, collaboration and frequent reviews of the literature and workshops as we do here.

Utility of parentage-based tagging for monitoring Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the interior Columbia River basin

By the 1980s, after decades of declining numbers in the mid-1900s, Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) were considered extirpated from the interior Columbia River. In the mid-1990s, the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation, and the Nez Perce Tribe began successful reintroduction programs of Coho salmon upstream of Bonneville Dam, but which were initially sourced from lower Columbia River hatcheries. Here we present the first Coho salmon parentage-based tagging (PBT) baseline from seven hatchery programs located in the interior Columbia River basin, and two sites at or downstream of Bonneville Dam, composed of over 32,000 broodstock samples. Analyses of baseline collections revealed that genetic structure followed a temporal pattern based on 3-year broodlines rather than geographic location or stocking history. Across hatchery programs, similar levels of genetic diversity was present. The PBT baseline provided multiple direct applications such as identification of origin for Coho salmon collected in a mixed stock at Priest Rapids Dam and the detection of the proportion and distribution of hatchery-origin fish on the spawning grounds in the Methow River basin. The PBT baseline for Coho salmon is freely available for use and can be downloaded from FishGen.net.

Practical application of the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating contemporary effective population size: A review

The method to estimate contemporary effective population size (Ne ) based on patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) at unlinked loci has been widely applied to natural and managed populations. The underlying model makes many simplifying assumptions, most of which have been evaluated in numerous studies published over the last two decades. Here, these performance evaluations are reviewed and summarized, with a focus on information that facilitates practical application to real populations in nature. Potential sources of bias that are discussed include calculation of r2 (a measure of LD), adjustments for sampling error, physical linkage, age structure, migration and spatial structure, mutation and selection, mating systems, changes in abundance, rare alleles, missing data, genotyping errors, data filtering choices and methods for combining multiple Ne estimates. Factors that affect precision are reviewed, including pseudoreplication that limits the information gained from large genomics datasets, constraints imposed by small samples of individuals, and the challenges in obtaining robust estimates for large populations. Topics that merit further research include the potential to weight r2 values by allele frequency, lump samples of individuals, use genotypic likelihoods rather than called genotypes, prune large LD values and apply the method to species practising partial monogamy.

Alternative life-history strategy contributions to effective population size in a naturally spawning salmon population

Alternative life-history tactics are predicted to affect within-population genetic processes but have received little attention. For example, the impact of precocious males on effective population size (N e) has not been quantified directly in Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp., even though they can make up a large percentage of the total male spawners. We investigated the contribution of precocial males ("jacks") to N e in a naturally spawning population of Coho Salmon O. kisutch from the Auke Creek watershed in Juneau, Alaska. Mature adults that returned from 2009 to 2019 (~8000 individuals) were genotyped at 259 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci for parentage analysis. We used demographic and genetic methods to estimate the effective number of breeders per year (N b). Jack contribution to N b was assessed by comparing values of N b calculated with and without jacks and their offspring. Over a range of N b values (108-406), the average jack contribution to N b from 2009 to 2015 was 12.9% (SE = 3.8%). Jacks consistently made up over 20% of the total male spawners. The presence of jacks did not seem to influence N b/N. The linkage disequilibrium N e estimate was lower than the demographic estimate, possibly due to immigration effects on population genetic processes: based on external marks and parentage data, we estimated that immigrant spawners produced 4.5% of all returning offspring. Our results demonstrate that jacks can influence N b and N e and can make a substantial contribution to population dynamics and conservation of threatened stocks.

Negative frequency dependent selection unites ecology and evolution

From genes to communities, understanding how diversity is maintained remains a fundamental question in biology. One challenging to identify, yet potentially ubiquitous, mechanism for the maintenance of diversity is negative frequency dependent selection (NFDS), which occurs when entities (e.g., genotypes, life history strategies, species) experience a per capita reduction in fitness with increases in relative abundance. Because NFDS allows rare entities to increase in frequency while preventing abundant entities from excluding others, we posit that negative frequency dependent selection plays a central role in the maintenance of diversity. In this review, we relate NFDS to coexistence, identify mechanisms of NFDS (e.g., mutualism, predation, parasitism), review strategies for identifying NFDS, and distinguish NFDS from other mechanisms of coexistence (e.g., storage effects, fluctuating selection). We also emphasize that NFDS is a key place where ecology and evolution intersect. Specifically, there are many examples of frequency dependent processes in ecology, but fewer cases that link this process to selection. Similarly, there are many examples of selection in evolution, but fewer cases that link changes in trait values to negative frequency dependence. Bridging these two well-developed fields of ecology and evolution will allow for mechanistic insights into the maintenance of diversity at multiple levels.

Effective population size in a partially clonal plant is not predicted by the number of genetic individuals

Estimating effective population size (N _e) is important for theoretical and practical applications in evolutionary biology and conservation. Nevertheless, estimates of N _e in organisms with complex life-history traits remain scarce because of the challenges associated with estimation methods. Partially clonal plants capable of both vegetative (clonal) growth and sexual reproduction are a common group of organisms for which the discrepancy between the apparent number of individuals (ramets) and the number of genetic individuals (genets) can be striking, and it is unclear how this discrepancy relates to N _e. In this study, we analysed two populations of the orchid Cypripedium calceolus to understand how the rate of clonal versus sexual reproduction affected N _e. We genotyped >1000 ramets at microsatellite and SNP loci, and estimated contemporary N _e with the linkage disequilibrium method, starting from the theoretical expectation that variance in reproductive success among individuals caused by clonal reproduction and by constraints on sexual reproduction would lower N _e. We considered factors potentially affecting our estimates, including different marker types and sampling strategies, and the influence of pseudoreplication in genomic data sets on N _e confidence intervals. The magnitude of N _e/N _ramets and N _e/N _genets ratios we provide may be used as reference points for other species with similar life-history traits. Our findings demonstrate that N _e in partially clonal plants cannot be predicted based on the number of genets generated by sexual reproduction, because demographic changes over time can strongly influence N _e. This is especially relevant in species of conservation concern in which population declines may not be detected by only ascertaining the number of genets.

Evolving spatial conservation prioritization with intraspecific genetic data

Spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) is a planning framework used to identify new conservation areas on the basis of the spatial distribution of species, ecosystems, and their services to human societies. The ongoing accumulation of intraspecific genetic data on a variety of species offers a way to gain knowledge of intraspecific genetic diversity and to estimate several population characteristics useful in conservation, such as dispersal and population size. Here, we review how intraspecific genetic data have been integrated into SCP and highlight their potential for identifying conservation area networks that represent intraspecific genetic diversity comprehensively and that ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity in the face of global change.

Global genetic diversity status and trends: towards a suite of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) for genetic composition

Biodiversity underlies ecosystem resilience, ecosystem function, sustainable economies, and human well‐being. Understanding how biodiversity sustains ecosystems under anthropogenic stressors and global environmental change will require new ways of deriving and applying biodiversity data. A major challenge is that biodiversity data and knowledge are scattered, biased, collected with numerous methods, and stored in inconsistent ways. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has developed the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as fundamental metrics to help aggregate, harmonize, and interpret biodiversity observation data from diverse sources. Mapping and analyzing EBVs can help to evaluate how aspects of biodiversity are distributed geographically and how they change over time. EBVs are also intended to serve as inputs and validation to forecast the status and trends of biodiversity, and to support policy and decision making. Here, we assess the feasibility of implementing Genetic Composition EBVs (Genetic EBVs), which are metrics of within‐species genetic variation. We review and bring together numerous areas of the field of genetics and evaluate how each contributes to global and regional genetic biodiversity monitoring with respect to theory, sampling logistics, metadata, archiving, data aggregation, modeling, and technological advances. We propose four Genetic EBVs: (i) Genetic Diversity; (ii) Genetic Differentiation; (iii) Inbreeding; and (iv) Effective Population Size (N_e). We rank Genetic EBVs according to their relevance, sensitivity to change, generalizability, scalability, feasibility and data availability. We outline the workflow for generating genetic data underlying the Genetic EBVs, and review advances and needs in archiving genetic composition data and metadata. We discuss how Genetic EBVs can be operationalized by visualizing EBVs in space and time across species and by forecasting Genetic EBVs beyond current observations using various modeling approaches. Our review then explores challenges of aggregation, standardization, and costs of operationalizing the Genetic EBVs, as well as future directions and opportunities to maximize their uptake globally in research and policy. The collection, annotation, and availability of genetic data has made major advances in the past decade, each of which contributes to the practical and standardized framework for large‐scale genetic observation reporting. Rapid advances in DNA sequencing technology present new opportunities, but also challenges for operationalizing Genetic EBVs for biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally. With these advances, genetic composition monitoring is starting to be integrated into global conservation policy, which can help support the foundation of all biodiversity and species' long‐term persistence in the face of environmental change. We conclude with a summary of concrete steps for researchers and policy makers for advancing operationalization of Genetic EBVs. The technical and analytical foundations of Genetic EBVs are well developed, and conservation practitioners should anticipate their increasing application as efforts emerge to scale up genetic biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally.

Historical effective population size of North American hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) and challenges to estimating trends in contemporary effective breeding population size from archived samples

Background

Hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus) are among the bat species most commonly killed by wind turbine strikes in the midwestern United States. The impact of this mortality on species census size is not understood, due in part to the difficulty of estimating population size for this highly migratory and elusive species. Genetic effective population size (Ne) could provide an index of changing census population size if other factors affecting Ne are stable.

Methods

We used the NeEstimator package to derive effective breeding population size (Nb) estimates for two temporally spaced cohorts: 93 hoary bats collected in 2009-2010 and an additional 93 collected in 2017-2018. We sequenced restriction-site associated polymorphisms and generated a de novo genome assembly to guide the removal of sex-linked and multi-copy loci, as well as identify physically linked markers.

Results

Analysis of the reference genome with psmc suggested at least a doubling of Ne in the last 100,000 years, likely exceeding Ne = 10,000 in the Holocene. Allele and genotype frequency analyses confirmed that the two cohorts were comparable, although some samples had unusually high or low observed heterozygosities. Additionally, the older cohort had lower mean coverage and greater variability in coverage, and batch effects of sampling locality were observed that were consistent with sample degradation. We therefore excluded samples with low coverage or outlier heterozygosity, as well as loci with sequence coverage far from the mode value, from the final data set. Prior to excluding these outliers, contemporary Nb estimates were significantly higher in the more recent cohort, but this finding was driven by high values for the 2018 sample year and low values for all other years. In the reduced data set, Nb did not differ significantly between cohorts. We found base substitutions to be strongly biased toward cytosine to thymine or the complement, and further partitioning loci by substitution type had a strong effect on Nb estimates. Minor allele frequency and base quality bias thresholds also had strong effects on Nb estimates. Instability of Nb with respect to common data filtering parameters and empirically identified factors prevented robust comparison of the two cohorts. Given that confidence intervals frequently included infinity as the stringency of data filtering increased, contemporary trends in Nb of North American hoary bats may not be tractable with the linkage disequilibrium method, at least using the protocol employed here.

Big Data in Conservation Genomics: Boosting Skills, Hedging Bets, and Staying Current in the Field

A current challenge in the fields of evolutionary, ecological, and conservation genomics is balancing production of large-scale datasets with additional training often required to handle such datasets. Thus, there is an increasing need for conservation geneticists to continually learn and train to stay up-to-date through avenues such as symposia, meetings, and workshops. The ConGen meeting is a near-annual workshop that strives to guide participants in understanding population genetics principles, study design, data processing, analysis, interpretation, and applications to real-world conservation issues. Each year of ConGen gathers a diverse set of instructors, students, and resulting lectures, hands-on sessions, and discussions. Here, we summarize key lessons learned from the 2019 meeting and more recent updates to the field with a focus on big data in conservation genomics. First, we highlight classical and contemporary issues in study design that are especially relevant to working with big datasets, including the intricacies of data filtering. We next emphasize the importance of building analytical skills and simulating data, and how these skills have applications within and outside of conservation genetics careers. We also highlight recent technological advances and novel applications to conservation of wild populations. Finally, we provide data and recommendations to support ongoing efforts by ConGen organizers and instructors-and beyond-to increase participation of underrepresented minorities in conservation and eco-evolutionary sciences. The future success of conservation genetics requires both continual training in handling big data and a diverse group of people and approaches to tackle key issues, including the global biodiversity-loss crisis.

Current and Forthcoming Approaches for Benchmarking Genetic and Genomic Diversity

The current attrition of biodiversity extends beyond loss of species and unique populations to steady loss of a vast genomic diversity that remains largely undescribed. Yet the accelerating development of new techniques allows us to survey entire genomes ever faster and cheaper, to obtain robust samples from a diversity of sources including degraded DNA and residual DNA in the environment, and to address conservation efforts in new and innovative ways. Here we review recent studies that highlight the importance of carefully considering where to prioritize collection of genetic samples (e.g., organisms in rapidly changing landscapes or along edges of geographic ranges) and what samples to collect and archive (e.g., from individuals of little-known subspecies or populations, even of species not currently considered endangered). Those decisions will provide the sample infrastructure to detect the disappearance of certain genotypes or gene complexes, increases in inbreeding levels, and loss of genomic diversity as environmental conditions change. Obtaining samples from currently endangered, protected, and rare species can be particularly difficult, thus we also focus on studies that use new, non-invasive ways of obtaining genomic samples and analyzing them in these cases where other sampling options are highly constrained. Finally, biological collections archiving such samples face an inherent contradiction: their main goal is to preserve biological material in good shape so it can be used for scientific research for centuries to come, yet the technologies that can make use of such materials are advancing faster than collections can change their standardized practices. Thus, we also discuss current and potential new practices in biological collections that might bolster their usefulness for future biodiversity conservation research.

Effective number of white shark (Carcharodon carcharias, Linnaeus) breeders is stable over four successive years in the population adjacent to eastern Australia and New Zealand

Population size is a central parameter for conservation; however, monitoring abundance is often problematic for threatened marine species. Despite substantial investment in research, many marine species remain data-poor presenting barriers to the evaluation of conservation management outcomes and the modeling of future solutions. Such is the case for the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias), a highly mobile apex predator for whom recent and substantial population declines have been recorded in many globally distributed populations. Here, we estimate the effective number of breeders that successfully contribute offspring in one reproductive cycle (Nb) to provide a snapshot of recent reproductive effort in an east Australian-New Zealand population of white shark. Nb was estimated over four consecutive age cohorts (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013) using two genetic estimators (linkage disequilibrium; LD and sibship assignment; SA) based on genetic data derived from two types of genetic markers (single nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs and microsatellite loci). While estimates of Nb using different marker types produced comparable estimates, microsatellite loci were the least precise. The LD and SA estimates of Nb within cohorts using SNPs were comparable; for example, the 2013 age cohort Nb(SA) was 289 (95% CI 200-461) and Nb(LD) was 208.5 (95% CI 116.4-712.7). We show that over the time period studied, Nb was stable and ranged between 206.1 (SD ± 45.9) and 252.0 (SD ± 46.7) per year using a combined estimate of Nb(LD+SA) from SNP loci. In addition, a simulation approach showed that in this population the effective population size (Ne) per generation can be expected to be larger than Nb per reproductive cycle. This study demonstrates how breeding population size can be monitored over time to provide insight into the effectiveness of recovery and conservation measures for the white shark, where the methods described here may be applicable to other data-poor species of conservation concern.