A multicenter longitudinal study of the prevalence and mortality rate of systemic lupus erythematosus patients in Oman: Oman Lupus Study

Mortality in a cohort of Egyptian systemic lupus erythematosus patients: A comparison with African, Arabic, and Mediterranean studies

Objectives

The study aimed to examine the frequency, causes, and predictors of mortality in a cohort of Egyptian systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients and compare mortality causes and the survival rate in our cohort to African, Arabic, and Mediterranean studies.

Patients and methods

In this retrospective study, a review of medical records of 563 SLE patients (516 females, 47 males; median of age: 32 [IQR: 26-38 years]; range, 14 to 63 years) fulfilling the 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria between January 2015 and December 2019 was done. The data extracted included demographic, clinical, and laboratory features, treatments used, disease activity as measured by Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI), and damage index as measured by Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) damage index. Causes of mortality were also reported.

Results

Out of 563 reviewed medical records, 50 (8.9%) patients died. Infection (28%) and organ damage (18%) were the most commonly reported causes of death. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that patients with cardiac manifestations, renal failure, those receiving higher doses of either oral (in their last visit) or intravenous (higher cumulative pulse steroids) steroids were at increased risk of mortality (p=0.011, p<0.001, p=0.01, and p<0.001, respectively; 95% confidence intervals 7.2, 63.9, 1.2, and 1.09, respectively). The overall survival at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years was 96.6%, 93.3%, 91.0%, and 83.2%, respectively, and 56.2% at 25 years until the end of the follow-up.

Conclusion

Cardiac manifestations, renal failure, and higher steroid doses were independent predictors of mortality in our cohort. As in most African countries, infection was the main cause of death in our study; however, the mortality rate and the five-year survival among our cohort were better than in African (sub-Saharan) countries and similar to Arabic and Mediterranean countries.

Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in an Oman-Based Cohort

Objectives

This study aimed to design a machine learning-based prediction framework to predict the presence or absence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a cohort of Omani patients.

Methods

Data of 219 patients from 2006 to 2019 were extracted from Sultan Qaboos University Hospital's electronic records. Among these, 138 patients had SLE, while the remaining 81 had other rheumatologic diseases. Clinical and demographic features were analysed to focus on the early stages of the disease. Recursive feature selection was implemented to choose the most informative features. The CatBoost classification algorithm was utilised to predict SLE, and the SHAP explainer algorithm was applied on top of the CatBoost model to provide individual prediction reasoning, which was then validated by rheumatologists.

Results

CatBoost achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve score of 0.95 and a sensitivity of 92%. The SHAP algorithm identified four clinical features (alopecia, renal disorders, acute cutaneous lupus and haemolytic anaemia) and the patient's age as having the greatest contribution to the prediction.

Conclusion

An explainable framework to predict SLE in patients and provide reasoning for its prediction was designed and validated. This framework enables clinicians to implement early interventions that will lead to positive healthcare outcomes.

Lupus nephritis: A focus on the United Arab Emirates and the potential role of genetics

Lupus nephritis (LN) is a severe manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), characterized by chronic and progressive inflammation of the kidneys. As with many other autoimmune diseases, LN is a multifactorial disease caused by genetic and environmental factors. Globally, LN can affect around 60% of SLE patients, and it was observed to be less frequent and severe in Caucasian patients compared to other ethnic groups, including Arabs. Data on LN in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are scattered and scarce in literature. Nevertheless, LN is common, occurring in around 43%-55% of SLE patients in the UAE. Anecdotally, the demographics and clinical features of SLE in the UAE have been distinct. However, the paucity of supporting literature makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions. Over the past two decades, there have been improvements in understanding the pathogenesis of LN; however, many cellular and molecular mechanisms which are implicated in the disease development and progression remain ambiguous. Investigating the clinical, pathological, and genetic characteristics of LN in different cohorts of patients is of importance for a better understanding of its pathogenesis, and thus improving its outcome. As a result, we acknowledge the need for large-scale epidemiological, clinical, and genetic investigation of LN cohorts in the UAE and surrounding regions.

Systemic lupus erythematosus increases risk of incident atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) might have increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) as a result of initiating chronic and systematic inflammation. However, the prevalence of AF in patients with SLE have not been well quantified. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to collect and identify available clinical data to explore this possible correlation.

METHODS

Articles were searched based on electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Cochrane Library, Web of Science). Review Manager 5.4 was used to perform meta-analysis of all selected studies and subgroup analyses (pooled separately by geographical distribution). Pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by random-effect model or fix-effect model.

RESULTS

Six cohort studies were involved in this meta-analysis, including 311 844 participants, 78 134 cases of SLE and 347 883 non-SLE controls. Pooled studies indicated increased risk of AF development in patients with SLE compared to participants without SLE (I²  = 96%, RR = 1.85; 95% CI: 1.23-2.79; P = .003). Four clinical trials including only European/ American populations were analyzed in subgroups. Heterogeneity analysis showed that I²  = 9% and there was an increase in the risk of AF development in European/ American patients with SLE (RR = 1.79; 95% CI: 1.61-1.98; P < .001), while in 2 Korean studies, the heterogeneity was 98% and there was no correlation between AF and SLE (RR = 1.81, 95% CI: 0.39-8.43). Five clinical studies were involved in subgroup analysis after excluding the Beak study, with I²  = 96% and they suggested that SLE increased the risk of AF development (RR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.42-3.21, P = .002).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis suggested that SLE may be a risk factor for AF development and the results may vary with geographic distribution.

Long-Term Outcome in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus; Knowledge from Population-Based Cohorts

Background: Accurate knowledge of outcomes in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is crucial to understanding the true burden of the disease. The main objective of this systematic review was to gather all population-based studies on mortality, end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and cancer in SLE. Method: We performed a systematic literature search in two electronic databases (MEDLINE and Embase) to identify all population-based articles on SLE and survival, mortality, ESRD and cancer. The SLE diagnosis had to be verified. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines (PRISMA). Results: We included 40/1041 articles on mortality (27), ESRD (11) and cancer (3), of which six were defined as inception studies. In the total SLE cohort, the standardized mortality ratio ranged from 1.9 to 4.6. Cardiovascular disease was the most frequent cause of death in studies with follow-up times over 15 years. SLE progressed to ESRD in 5–11% of all SLE patients. There are no data supporting increased cancer incidence from population-based inception cohorts. Conclusion: There is a need for more population-based studies on outcomes of SLE, especially inception studies, with the use of control groups and follow-up times over 15 years.