Propagule pressure in the presence of uncertainty: extending the utility of proxy variables with hierarchical models

Anglers as potential vectors of aquatic invasive species: Linking inland water bodies in the Great Lakes region of the US

Unimpeded transfer and spread of invasive species throughout freshwater systems is of global concern, altering species compositions, disrupting ecosystem processes, and diverting economic resources. The magnitude and complexity of the problem is amplified by the global connectedness of human movements and the multiple modes of inter-basin transport of aquatic invasive species. Our objective was to trace the fishing behavior of anglers delineating potential pathways of transfer of invasive species throughout the vast inland waters of the Great Lakes of North America, which contain more than 21% of the world's surface freshwater and are among the most highly invaded aquatic ecosystems in the world. Combining a comprehensive survey and a spatial analysis of the movements of thousands of anglers in 12 states within the US portion of the Great Lakes Basin and the Upper Mississippi and Ohio River Basins, we estimated that 6.5 million licensed anglers in the study area embarked on an average of 30 fishing trips over the course of the year, and 70% of the individuals fished in more than one county. Geospatial linkages showed direct connections made by individuals traveling between 99% of the 894 counties where fishing occurred, and between 61 of the 66 sub-watersheds in a year. Estimated numbers of fishing trips to individual counties ranged from 1199-1.95 million; generally highest in counties bordering the Great Lakes. Of these, 79 had more than 10,000 estimated fishing trips originating from anglers living in other counties. Although angler movements are one mechanism of invasive species transfer, there likely is a high cumulative probability of invasive species transport by several million people fishing each year throughout this extensive freshwater network. A comprehensive georeferenced survey, coupled with a spatial analysis of fishing destinations, provides a potentially powerful tool to track, predict, curtail and control the transfer and proliferation of invasive species in freshwater.

Plant invasion risk inside and outside protected areas: Propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors definitively matter

Invasive alien species are among the main global drivers of biodiversity loss posing major challenges to nature conservation and to managers of protected areas. The present study applied a methodological framework that combined invasive Species Distribution Models, based on propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors for 14 invasive alien plants of Union concern in Italy, with the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation analysis aiming to map, evaluate and analyse the risk of plant invasions across the country, inside and outside the network of protected areas. Using a hierarchical invasive Species Distribution Model, we explored the combined effect of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on shaping invasive alien plant occurrence across three biogeographic regions (Alpine, Continental, and Mediterranean) and realms (terrestrial and aquatic) in Italy. We disentangled the role of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on invasive alien plant distribution and projected invasion risk maps. We compared the risk posed by invasive alien plants inside and outside protected areas. Invasive alien plant distribution varied across biogeographic regions and realms and unevenly threatens protected areas. As an alien's occurrence and risk on a national scale are linked with abiotic factors followed by propagule pressure, their local distribution in protected areas is shaped by propagule pressure and biotic filters. The proposed modelling framework for the assessment of the risk posed by invasive alien plants across spatial scales and under different protection regimes represents an attempt to fill the gap between theory and practice in conservation planning helping to identify scale, site, and species-specific priorities of management, monitoring and control actions. Based on solid theory and on free geographic information, it has great potential for application to wider networks of protected areas in the world and to any invasive alien plant, aiding improved management strategies claimed by the environmental legislation and national and global strategies.

Proxy-based model to assess the relative contribution of ballast water and biofouling's potential propagule pressure and prioritize vessel inspections

Commercial shipping is the primary pathway of introduction for aquatic nonindigenous species (NIS), mainly through the mechanisms of ballast water and biofouling. In response to this threat, regulatory programs have been established across the globe to regulate and monitor commercial merchant and passenger vessels to assess compliance with local requirements to reduce the likelihood of NIS introductions. Resource limitations often determine the inspection efforts applied by these regulatory agencies to reduce NIS introductions. We present a simple and adaptable model that prioritizes vessel arrivals for inspection using proxies for potential propagule pressure (PPP), namely a ships’ wetted surface area as a proxy for the likelihood of biofouling-mediated PPP and ballast water discharge volume as a proxy for ballast water-mediated PPP. We used a California-specific dataset of vessels that arrived at California ports between 2015 and 2018 to test the proposed model and demonstrate how a finite set of inspection resources can be applied to target vessels with the greatest PPP. The proposed tool is adaptable by jurisdiction, scalable to different segments of the vessel population, adjustable based on the vector of interest, and versatile because it allows combined or separate analyses of the PPP components. The approach can be adopted in any jurisdiction across the globe, especially jurisdictions without access to, or authority to collect, risk profiling data or direct measurements for all incoming vessel arrivals.

Managing propagule pressure to prevent invasive species establishments: propagule size, number, and risk-release curve

There is considerable evidence that keeping propagule pressure low can drastically reduce establishment probability of potential invasive species. Yet, most management plans and research efforts fail to explicitly acknowledge all three of the components of propagule pressure: size, number, and the risk-release relationship. It is unclear how failing to specify one or more of these components can influence the efficacy of management plans in preventing invasive species establishment. Furthermore, even if all components are acknowledged and quantified, there currently is no mathematical tool available to calculate the levels of propagule pressure that ensure attainment of a predetermined, and system-specific, target establishment probability. Here, we quantify the resulting uncertainty in establishment probability when one or more components of propagule pressure is unknown by using parameter uncertainty analysis on realistic values of propagule pressure. In addition, to aid in the development of management plans that explicitly set propagule pressure limits, we develop a propagule-pressure sensitivity analysis that we use to determine the required reduction in levels for propagule size and number (representative of management actions) to maintain a target establishment probability. We show that the precision of establishment estimates is highly dependent on knowledge of all three propagule pressure components, where the possible range of values for establishment probability can vary by over 50% without full specification. In addition, our sensitivity analysis showed that propagule size and number can be altered independently or in conjunction to lower establishment probability below a target level. Importantly, our sensitivity analysis was able to specifically quantify how much reduction in a propagule pressure component(s) is needed to reach a given target establishment probability. Our findings suggest that quantifying the three components of propagule pressure should be a priority for invasive species prevention moving forward. Furthermore, our sensitivity analysis tool can serve to guide the development of new invasive species management plans in a transparent and quantitative manner. Together with information on the costs associated with approaches to reducing propagule pressure, our tool can be used to identify the most cost-effective approach to prevent invasive species establishments.

Ballast Water Exchange Plus Treatment Lowers Species Invasion Rate in Freshwater Ecosystems

The movement of ballast water by commercial shipping is a prominent pathway for aquatic invasions. Ships' ballast water management is now transitioning from open ocean exchange to a ballast water performance standard that will effectively require use of onboard treatment systems. Neither strategy is perfect, therefore, combined use of ballast water exchange plus treatment has been suggested to provide greatest protection of aquatic ecosystems. This study compared the performance of exchange plus treatment against treatment alone by modeling establishment rates of nonindigenous zooplankton introduced by ballast water across different habitat types (fresh, brackish, and marine) in Canada. Treatment was modeled under two efficacy scenarios (100% and 50% of ship trips) to consider the possibility that treatment may not always be successful. The model results indicate that exchange plus treatment will be more effective than treatment alone at reducing establishments when recipient ports are freshwater (58 140 vs 11 338 trips until ≥1 establishment occurs, respectively). Exchange plus treatment also serves as an important backup strategy if treatment systems are partially effective (50% of trips), primarily for freshwater recipient ecosystems (1442 versus 585 trips until ≥1 establishment occurs, respectively).

Influence of the components of propagule pressure, Allee effects, and stochasticity on the time to establish introduced populations

Forecasting whether individuals of an introduced population will succeed to establish is a challenge in invasion and conservation biology. The present work aims to decouple the impact of the components of propagule pressure on the time for population establishment in the presence of Allee effects and stochasticity in propagule sizes. The mean first passage time (MFPT) for a population to reach a viable size is used as a measure of the establishment success for the introduction processes involving periodic introductions. By fixing the introduction rate (mean number of introduced individuals per unit time) and varying the period of introduction from small ranges (small and frequent introductions) to large ones (infrequent and large releases), we study the influence of introduction distribution over time. These patterns of introduction are compared in a semi-stochastic model by observing which factors minimize the MFPT from an initially absent population, and hence, ensure the fastest population establishment. We investigate the influence on these minima of the introduction rate, variability in the introduction sizes, and occurrence of catastrophes that temporarily wipe out the population. Whereas most investigated cases show that infrequent and large introductions favor population establishment as expected, small and frequent introductions are preferred when the introduction rate is large and/or the variability in the introduction size is strong. Moreover, we observed counterintuitively that catastrophes strongly increase MFPT at small periods of introduction. In addition, we showed that stochasticity in introduction tends to increase the MFPT except when the introduction rate is small and introductions are evenly spread out in time.

Potential effects of LNG trade shift on transfer of ballast water and biota by ships

As the US natural gas surplus grows, so does the prospect of establishing new trade partnerships with buyers abroad, a process that has major consequences for global ship movement and ballast water delivery. Since US annual imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) peaked in 2004-2007, the country is rapidly transitioning from net importer to net exporter of LNG. Combining multiple datasets, we estimated changes in the associated flux of ships' ballast water to the US during 2015-2040, using existing scenarios for projected exports of domestic LNG by ships. Our analysis of the current market (2015) scenario predicts an approximate 90-fold annual increase in LNG-related ballast water discharge to the US by 2040 (42millionm³), with the potential to be even greater under high oil prices. We also described changes in geographic connectivity related to trade direction. These findings highlight how 21^st century global energy markets could dramatically alter opportunities for seaborne introductions and invasions by nonnative species.