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Jung M, Alagador D, Chapman M, Hermoso V, Kujala H, O'Connor L, Schinegger R, Verburg PH, Visconti P. An assessment of the state of conservation planning in Europe. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20230015. [PMID: 38583468 PMCID: PMC10999267 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Accepted: 11/11/2023] [Indexed: 04/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Expanding and managing current habitat and species protection measures is at the heart of the European biodiversity strategy. A structured approach is needed to gain insights into such issues is systematic conservation planning, which uses techniques from decision theory to identify places and actions that contribute most effectively to policy objectives given a set of constraints. Yet culturally and historically determined European landscapes make the implementation of any conservation plans challenging, requiring an analysis of synergies and trade-offs before implementation. In this work, we review the scientific literature for evidence of previous conservation planning approaches, highlighting recent advances and success stories. We find that the conceptual characteristics of European conservation planning studies likely reduced their potential in contributing to better-informed decisions. We outline pathways towards improving the uptake of decision theory and multi-criteria conservation planning at various scales, particularly highlighting the need for (a) open data and intuitive tools, (b) the integration of biodiversity-focused conservation planning with multiple objectives, (c) accounting of dynamic ecological processes and functions, and (d) better facilitation of entry-points and co-design practices of conservation planning scenarios with stakeholders. By adopting and improving these practices, European conservation planning might become more actionable and adaptable towards implementable policy outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Jung
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlosspark 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
| | - Diogo Alagador
- Biodiversity Chair, MED: Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, 7006-554, University of Evora, Portugal
| | - Melissa Chapman
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlosspark 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Virgilio Hermoso
- Department of Plant Biology and Ecology, University of Sevilla, 41012, Seville, Spain
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, 00100 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Louise O'Connor
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlosspark 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
- Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Université Grenoble Alpes, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Grenoble, F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Rafaela Schinegger
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - Peter H. Verburg
- VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Swiss Federal Institute WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Piero Visconti
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlosspark 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
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González-Trujillo JD, Alagador D, González-Del-Pliego P, Araújo MB. Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024:e14251. [PMID: 38462849 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2023] [Revised: 12/15/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 03/12/2024]
Abstract
Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan David González-Trujillo
- Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development & CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Universidade de Évora, Évora, Portugal
- Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Madrid, Spain
| | - Diogo Alagador
- Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development & CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Universidade de Évora, Évora, Portugal
| | - Pamela González-Del-Pliego
- Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development & CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Universidade de Évora, Évora, Portugal
| | - Miguel B Araújo
- Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development & CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Universidade de Évora, Évora, Portugal
- Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Madrid, Spain
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Ortega MA, Cayuela L, Griffith DM, Camacho A, Coronado IM, del Castillo RF, Figueroa-Rangel BL, Fonseca W, Garibaldi C, Kelly DL, Letcher SG, Meave JA, Merino-Martín L, Meza VH, Ochoa-Gaona S, Olvera-Vargas M, Ramírez-Marcial N, Tun-Dzul FJ, Valdez-Hernández M, Velázquez E, White DA, Williams-Linera G, Zahawi RA, Muñoz J. Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0297840. [PMID: 38422027 PMCID: PMC10903834 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297840] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel A. Ortega
- Instituto Mixto de Investigación en Biodiversidad (IMIB-CSIC), Mieres, Spain
- Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo, Madrid, Spain
| | - Luis Cayuela
- Departamento de Biología y Geología, Física y Química Inorgánica, ESCET, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles, Spain
| | - Daniel M. Griffith
- Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias, EcoSs Lab, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Loja, Ecuador
| | | | | | | | - Blanca L. Figueroa-Rangel
- Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Universidad de Guadalajara, Autlán de Navarro, Jalisco, Mexico
| | - William Fonseca
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Costa Rica, Santa Lucía, Barva, Heredia, Costa Rica
| | - Cristina Garibaldi
- Departmento de Botánica, Universidad de Panamá, Campus Universitario Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá, República de Panamá
| | - Daniel L. Kelly
- Department of Botany, Trinity College, University of Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Susan G. Letcher
- College of the Atlantic, Bar Harbor, Maine, United States of America
| | - Jorge A. Meave
- Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
| | - Luis Merino-Martín
- Departamento de Biología y Geología, Física y Química Inorgánica, ESCET, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles, Spain
| | - Víctor H. Meza
- Instituto de Investigación y Servicios Forestales, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica, Campus Omar Dengo, Heredia, Costa Rica
| | | | - Miguel Olvera-Vargas
- Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Universidad de Guadalajara, Autlán de Navarro, Jalisco, Mexico
| | | | - Fernando J. Tun-Dzul
- Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán, Chuburna de Hidalgo, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Mirna Valdez-Hernández
- Herbario, Departamento Conservación de la Biodiversidad, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Chetumal, Mexico
| | - Eduardo Velázquez
- Departamento de Producción Vegetal y Recursos Forestales, Instituto Universitario de Gestión Forestal Sostenible, Universidad de Valladolid (Campus de Palencia), Palencia, Spain
| | - David A. White
- Emeritus Faculty, Program in the Environment, Loyola University, New Orleans, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
| | | | | | - Jesús Muñoz
- Real Jardín Botánico (RJB-CSIC), Madrid, Spain
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Leão CF, Lima Ribeiro MS, Moraes K, Gonçalves GSR, Lima MGM. Climate change and carnivores: shifts in the distribution and effectiveness of protected areas in the Amazon. PeerJ 2023; 11:e15887. [PMID: 37744233 PMCID: PMC10516102 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.15887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 09/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Carnivore mammals are animals vulnerable to human interference, such as climate change and deforestation. Their distribution and persistence are affected by such impacts, mainly in tropical regions such as the Amazon. Due to the importance of carnivores in the maintenance and functioning of the ecosystem, they are extremely important animals for conservation. We evaluated the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of carnivores in the Amazon using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Do we seek to answer the following questions: (1) What is the effect of climate change on the distribution of carnivores in the Amazon? (2) Will carnivore species lose or gain representation within the Protected Areas (PAs) of the Amazon in the future? Methods We evaluated the distribution area of 16 species of carnivores mammals in the Amazon, based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the year 2070. For the construction of the SDMs we used bioclimatic and vegetation cover variables (land type). Based on these models, we calculated the area loss and climate suitability of the species, as well as the effectiveness of the protected areas inserted in the Amazon. We estimated the effectiveness of PAs on the individual persistence of carnivores in the future, for this, we used the SDMs to perform the gap analysis. Finally, we analyze the effectiveness of PAs in protecting taxonomic richness in future scenarios. Results The SDMs showed satisfactory predictive performance, with Jaccard values above 0.85 and AUC above 0.91 for all species. In the present and for the future climate scenarios, we observe a reduction of potencial distribution in both future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), where five species will be negatively affected by climate change in the RCP 4.5 future scenario and eight in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The remaining species stay stable in terms of total area. All species in the study showed a loss of climatic suitability. Some species lost almost all climatic suitability in the RCP 8.5 scenario. According to the GAP analysis, all species are protected within the PAs both in the current scenario and in both future climate scenarios. From the null models, we found that in all climate scenarios, the PAs are not efficient in protecting species richness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Camila Ferreira Leão
- Programa Pós-graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil
- Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil
| | | | - Kauê Moraes
- Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil
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Gouvêa LP, Fragkopoulou E, Cavanaugh K, Serrão EA, Araújo MB, Costello MJ, Westergerling EHT, Assis J. Oceanographic connectivity explains the intra-specific diversity of mangrove forests at global scales. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2209637120. [PMID: 36996109 PMCID: PMC10083552 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2209637120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2022] [Accepted: 02/16/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023] Open
Abstract
The distribution of mangrove intra-specific biodiversity can be structured by historical demographic processes that enhance or limit effective population sizes. Oceanographic connectivity (OC) may further structure intra-specific biodiversity by preserving or diluting the genetic signatures of historical changes. Despite its relevance for biogeography and evolution, the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring the distribution of mangrove's genetic diversity has not been addressed at global scale. Here we ask whether connectivity mediated by ocean currents explains the intra-specific diversity of mangroves. A comprehensive dataset of population genetic differentiation was compiled from the literature. Multigenerational connectivity and population centrality indices were estimated with biophysical modeling coupled with network analyses. The variability explained in genetic differentiation was tested with competitive regression models built upon classical isolation-by-distance (IBD) models considering geographic distance. We show that oceanographic connectivity can explain the genetic differentiation of mangrove populations regardless of the species, region, and genetic marker (significant regression models in 95% of cases, with an average R-square of 0.44 ± 0.23 and Person's correlation of 0.65 ± 0.17), systematically improving IBD models. Centrality indices, providing information on important stepping-stone sites between biogeographic regions, were also important in explaining differentiation (R-square improvement of 0.06 ± 0.07, up to 0.42). We further show that ocean currents produce skewed dispersal kernels for mangroves, highlighting the role of rare long-distance dispersal events responsible for historical settlements. Overall, we demonstrate the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring mangrove intra-specific diversity. Our findings are critical for mangroves' biogeography and evolution, but also for management strategies considering climate change and genetic biodiversity conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lidiane P. Gouvêa
- CCMAR–Center of Marine Sciences, University of the Algarve, 8005-139Faro, Portugal
| | - Eliza Fragkopoulou
- CCMAR–Center of Marine Sciences, University of the Algarve, 8005-139Faro, Portugal
| | - Kyle Cavanaugh
- Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA90095
| | - Ester A. Serrão
- CCMAR–Center of Marine Sciences, University of the Algarve, 8005-139Faro, Portugal
| | - Miguel B. Araújo
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC-Spanish National Research Council,28806Madrid, Spain
- Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair, MED–Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, University of Évora, 7000Évora, Portugal
| | - Mark John Costello
- Faculty of Bioscience and Aquaculture, Nord Universitet, 1490Bodø, Norway
| | - E. H. Taraneh Westergerling
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen,5020Bergen, Norway
- Institute of Marine Research, 5817Bergen, Norway
| | - Jorge Assis
- CCMAR–Center of Marine Sciences, University of the Algarve, 8005-139Faro, Portugal
- Faculty of Bioscience and Aquaculture, Nord Universitet, 1490Bodø, Norway
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Alagador D. Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2023; 37:e14026. [PMID: 36317717 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2022] [Revised: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 09/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species' ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diogo Alagador
- The Biodiversity Chair, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Évora, Portugal
- MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Universidade de Évora, Évora, Portugal
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Alagador D, Cerdeira JO. Operations research applicability in spatial conservation planning. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 315:115172. [PMID: 35525048 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2022] [Revised: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 04/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
A large fraction of the current environmental crisis derives from the large rates of human-driven biodiversity loss. Biodiversity conservation questions human practices towards biodiversity and, therefore, largely conflicts with ordinary societal aspirations. Decisions on the location of protected areas, one of the most convincing conservation tools, reflect such a competitive endeavor. Operations Research (OR) brings a set of analytical models and tools capable of resolving the conflicting interests between ecology and economy. Recent technological advances have boosted the size and variety of data available to planners, thus challenging conventional approaches bounded on optimized solutions. New models and methods are needed to use such a massive amount of data in integrative schemes addressing a large variety of concerns. This study provides an overview on the past, present and future challenges that characterize spatial conservation models supported by OR. We discuss the progress of OR models and methods in spatial conservation planning and how those models may be optimized through sophisticated algorithms and computational tools. Moreover, we anticipate possible panoramas of modern spatial conservation studies supported by OR and we explore possible avenues for the design of optimized interdisciplinary collaborative platforms in the era of Big Data, through consortia where distinct players with different motivations and services meet. By enlarging the spatial, temporal, taxonomic and societal horizons of biodiversity conservation, planners navigate around multiple socioecological/environmental equilibria and are able to decide on cost-effective strategies to improve biodiversity persistence under complex environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diogo Alagador
- Biodiversity Chair, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Rua Joaquim Henrique da Fonseca, Casa Cordovil, 2°, 7000-890, Évora, Portugal; MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Universidade de Évora, Évora, Portugal.
| | - Jorge Orestes Cerdeira
- Department of Mathematics, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Quinta da Torre, 282 -516, Costa da Caparica, Portugal; Centre for Mathematics and Applications, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Quinta da Torre, 282 -516, Costa da Caparica, Portugal.
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The Value of Trail Corridors for Bold Conservation Planning. LAND 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/land11030348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Conservationists are calling for bold strategies to connect wildlands and halt extinctions. A growing number of scientists recommend that 50% of all land must be held in a protected area network to maintain biodiversity. We assessed lands adjacent to the Pacific Crest Trail (PCT) and Continental Divide Trail (CDT) as possible wildlife corridors connecting protected areas in the American West. We evaluated the connectivity, wildness, and biodiversity values of the lands of each corridor and determined the conservation and land management status. We found that our corridors connect 95 protected areas creating two linear protected area chains from Mexico to Canada. Both the PCT and CDT corridors follow many of the best corridor routes previously found in the literature and hold high wildland conservation values. The American public already owns the majority of land units around the modeled PCT (88%) and CDT (90%) corridor. Therefore, we recommend further analysis of the lands adjacent to recreational trails as wildlife corridors. Employing our methodology on multiple scales could reveal that other recreational trails should be buffered and conserved for wildlife movement.
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Wang Y, Qin P, Önal H. An optimisation approach for designing wildlife corridors with ecological and spatial considerations. Methods Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yicheng Wang
- College of Resources and Environment Qingdao Agricultural University Qingdao China
| | - Peng Qin
- College of Resources and Environment Qingdao Agricultural University Qingdao China
| | - Hayri Önal
- Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois Champaign Illinois USA
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Christodoulou C, Griffiths G, Vogiatzakis I. Systematic Conservation Planning in a Mediterranean island context: The example of Cyprus. Glob Ecol Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
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Drechsler M, Gerling C, Keuler K, Leins J, Sturm A, Wätzold F. A quantitative approach for the design of robust and cost-effective conservation policies under uncertain climate change: The case of grasshopper conservation in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2021; 296:113201. [PMID: 34252853 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2021] [Revised: 06/08/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate is a major determinant of the world's distribution of biodiversity and species ranges are expected to shift as the climate changes. For conservation policies to be cost-effective in the long run these changes need to be taken into account. To some extent, policies can be adapted over time, but transaction costs, lock-in effects and path dependence limit the extent to which such adaptation is possible. Thus it is desirable that conservation policies be designed so that they are cost-effective in the long run even without future adaptations. Given that the future climate change is highly uncertain, the policies need to be robust to climatic uncertainty. In this paper we present an approach for the robustness analysis with regard to the cost-effectiveness of conservation policies in the face of uncertain climate change. The approach is applied to the conservation of a grasshopper species in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein. For the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of considered policies we develop a climate-ecological-economic model. We show that in the near future all considered policies have a similar level of robustness, while in the more distant future the policies differ substantially in their robustness and a trade-off emerges between the expected performance and robustness of a policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Drechsler
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany.
| | - Charlotte Gerling
- Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Chair of Environmental Economics, Erich-Weinert-Str. 1, 03046, Cottbus, Germany
| | - Klaus Keuler
- Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Erich-Weinert-Str. 1, 03046, Cottbus, Germany
| | - Johannes Leins
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Astrid Sturm
- Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Chair of Environmental Economics, Erich-Weinert-Str. 1, 03046, Cottbus, Germany
| | - Frank Wätzold
- Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Chair of Environmental Economics, Erich-Weinert-Str. 1, 03046, Cottbus, Germany
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Tourinho L, Prevedello JA, Carvalho BM, Rocha DS, Vale MM. Macroscale climate change predictions have little influence on landscape-scale habitat suitability. Perspect Ecol Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2021.10.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022] Open
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Gerling C, Wätzold F. An economic evaluation framework for land-use-based conservation policy instruments in a changing climate. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2021; 35:824-833. [PMID: 32885461 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13631] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2019] [Revised: 08/05/2020] [Accepted: 08/28/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is a key threat to biodiversity. To conserve species under climate change, ecologists and conservation scientists suggest 2 main conservation strategies regarding land use: supporting species' range shifts to enable it to follow its climatic requirements by creating migration pathways, such as corridors and stepping stones, and conserving climate refugia (i.e., existing habitat areas that are somewhat buffered from climate change). The policy instruments that could be used to implement these conservation strategies have yet to be evaluated comprehensively from an economic perspective. The economic analyses of environmental policy instruments are often based on ecological effectiveness and cost-effectiveness criteria. We adapted these general criteria to evaluate policy instruments for species' conservation under climate change and applied them to a conceptual analysis of land purchases, offsets, and conservation payments. Depending on whether the strategy supporting species' range shifts or conserving climate refugia is selected, the evaluation of the policy instruments differed substantially. For example, to ensure ecological effectiveness, habitat persistence over time was especially important for climate refugia and was best achieved by a land-purchase policy instrument. In contrast, for the strategy supporting range shifts to be ecologically effective, a high degree of flexibility in the location of conserved sites was required to ensure that new habitat sites can be created in the species' new range. Offset programs were best suited for that because the location of conservation sites can be chosen comparatively freely and may also be adapted over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte Gerling
- Environmental Economics, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Erich-Weinert-Straße 1, Building 1, Cottbus, 03046, Germany
| | - Frank Wätzold
- Environmental Economics, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Erich-Weinert-Straße 1, Building 1, Cottbus, 03046, Germany
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Conlisk E, Haeuser E, Flint A, Lewison RL, Jennings MK. Pairing functional connectivity with population dynamics to prioritize corridors for Southern California spotted owls. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Emily Haeuser
- Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Management San Diego State University San Diego CA USA
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA USA
| | - Alan Flint
- USGS California Water Science Center Sacramento CA USA
| | - Rebecca L. Lewison
- Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Management San Diego State University San Diego CA USA
| | - Megan K. Jennings
- Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Management San Diego State University San Diego CA USA
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15
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Abstract
Climate-wise connectivity is essential to provide species access to suitable habitats in the future, yet we lack a consistent means of quantifying climate adaptation benefits of habitat linkages. Species range shifts to cooler climates have been widely observed, suggesting we should protect pathways providing access to cooler locations. However, in topographically diverse regions, the effects of elevation, seasonality, and proximity to large water bodies are complex drivers of biologically relevant temperature gradients. Here, we identify potential terrestrial and riparian linkages and their cooling benefit using mid-century summer and winter temperature extremes for interior coastal ranges in Northern California. It is rare for the same area to possess both terrestrial and riparian connectivity value. Our analysis reveals distinct differences in the magnitude and orientation of cooling benefits between the summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures provided by the linkages we delineated for the area. The cooling benefits for both linkage types were maximized to the west during summer, but upslope and to the northeast during winter. The approach we employ here provides an improved method to prioritize climate-wise connectivity and promote landscape resilience for topographically diverse regions.
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16
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Armsworth PR, Benefield AE, Dilkina B, Fovargue R, Jackson HB, Le Bouille D, Nolte C. Allocating resources for land protection using continuous optimization: biodiversity conservation in the United States. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02118. [PMID: 32173929 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2019] [Revised: 12/15/2019] [Accepted: 01/07/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Spatial optimization approaches that were originally developed to help conservation organizations determine protection decisions over small spatial scales are now used to inform global or continental scale priority setting. However, the different decision contexts involved in large-scale resource allocation need to be considered. We present a continuous optimization approach in which a decision-maker allocates funding to regional offices. Local decision-makers then use these funds to implement habitat protection efforts with varying effectiveness when evaluated in terms of the funder's goals. We illustrate this continuous formulation by examining the relative priority that should be given to different counties in the coterminous United States when acquiring land to establish new protected areas. If weighting all species equally, counties in the southwest United States, where large areas can be bought cheaply, are priorities for protection. If focusing only on species of conservation concern, priorities shift to locations rich in such species, particularly near expanding exurban areas facing high rates of future habitat conversion (e.g., south-central Texas). Priorities for protection are sensitive to what is assumed about local ecological and decision-making processes. For example, decision-makers who doubt the efficacy of local land protection efforts should focus on a few key areas, while optimistic decision-makers should disperse funding more widely. Efforts to inform large-scale conservation priorities should reflect better the types of choice that decision-makers actually face when working over these scales. They also need to report the sensitivity of recommended priorities to what are often unstated assumptions about local processes affecting conservation outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul R Armsworth
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, 569 Dabney Hall, 1416 Circle Dr, Knoxville, Tennessee, 37996, USA
| | - Amy E Benefield
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 569 Dabney Hall, 1416 Circle Dr, Knoxville, Tennessee, 37996, USA
| | - Bistra Dilkina
- Department of Computer Science, University of Southern California, 941 Bloom Walk, Los Angeles, California, 90089, USA
| | - Rachel Fovargue
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 569 Dabney Hall, 1416 Circle Dr, Knoxville, Tennessee, 37996, USA
| | - Heather B Jackson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 569 Dabney Hall, 1416 Circle Dr, Knoxville, Tennessee, 37996, USA
| | - Diane Le Bouille
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 569 Dabney Hall, 1416 Circle Dr, Knoxville, Tennessee, 37996, USA
| | - Christoph Nolte
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts, 02215, USA
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Alagador D, Cerdeira JO. Revisiting the minimum set cover, the maximal coverage problems and a maximum benefit area selection problem to make climate‐change‐concerned conservation plans effective. Methods Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Diogo Alagador
- The “Rui Nabeiro” Biodiversity Chair MED‐Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development Universidade de Évora Évora Portugal
| | - Jorge Orestes Cerdeira
- Department of Mathematics and Centre for Mathematics and Applications Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia Universidade NOVA de Lisboa Costa da Caparica Portugal
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18
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Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty using modern portfolio theory and Nash bargaining solution. Ecol Modell 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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Gilbert SL, Broadley K, Doran-Myers D, Droghini A, Haines JA, Hämäläinen A, Lamb CT, Neilson EW, Boutin S. Conservation triage at the trailing edge of climate envelopes. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2020; 34:289-292. [PMID: 31348540 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2017] [Revised: 06/14/2019] [Accepted: 06/22/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Sophie L Gilbert
- Department of Fish & Wildlife Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, 83844, U.S.A
| | - Kate Broadley
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G0C5, Canada
| | - Darcy Doran-Myers
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G0C5, Canada
| | - Amanda Droghini
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G0C5, Canada
| | - Jessica A Haines
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G0C5, Canada
| | - Anni Hämäläinen
- School of Optometry, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC CAN, H3T1P1, Canada
| | - Clayton T Lamb
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G0C5, Canada
| | - Eric W Neilson
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G0C5, Canada
| | - Stan Boutin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G0C5, Canada
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Tomlinson S, Lewandrowski W, Elliott CP, Miller BP, Turner SR. High-resolution distribution modeling of a threatened short-range endemic plant informed by edaphic factors. Ecol Evol 2020; 10:763-777. [PMID: 32015842 PMCID: PMC6988535 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2019] [Revised: 11/07/2019] [Accepted: 11/11/2019] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Short-range endemic plants often have edaphic specializations that, with their restricted distributions, expose them to increased risk of anthropogenic extinction.Here, we present a modeling approach to understand habitat suitability for Ricinocarpos brevis R.J.F.Hend. & Mollemans (Euphorbiaceae), a threatened shrub confined to three isolated populations in the semi-arid south-west of Western Australia. The model is a maximum entropy species distribution projection constructed on the basis of physical soil characteristics and geomorphology data at approximately 25 m2 (1 arc-second) resolution.The model predicts the species to occur on shallow, low bulk density soils that are located high in the landscape. The model shows high affinity (72.1% average likelihood of occurrence) for the known populations of R. brevis, as well as identifying likely locations that are not currently known to support the species. There was a strong relationship between the likelihood of R. brevis occurrence and soil moisture content that the model estimated at a depth of 20 cm.We advocate that our approach should be standardized using publicly available data to generate testable hypotheses for the distribution and conservation management of short-range endemic plant species for all of continental Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean Tomlinson
- School of Molecular & Life SciencesCurtin UniversityPerthWAAustralia
- Kings Park ScienceDepartment of Biodiversity, Conservation and AttractionsWest PerthWAAustralia
| | - Wolfgang Lewandrowski
- Kings Park ScienceDepartment of Biodiversity, Conservation and AttractionsWest PerthWAAustralia
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of Western AustraliaCrawleyWAAustralia
| | - Carole P. Elliott
- Kings Park ScienceDepartment of Biodiversity, Conservation and AttractionsWest PerthWAAustralia
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of Western AustraliaCrawleyWAAustralia
| | - Ben P. Miller
- Kings Park ScienceDepartment of Biodiversity, Conservation and AttractionsWest PerthWAAustralia
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of Western AustraliaCrawleyWAAustralia
| | - Shane R. Turner
- School of Molecular & Life SciencesCurtin UniversityPerthWAAustralia
- Kings Park ScienceDepartment of Biodiversity, Conservation and AttractionsWest PerthWAAustralia
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of Western AustraliaCrawleyWAAustralia
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21
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Steinacker C, Beierkuhnlein C, Jaeschke A. Assessing the exposure of forest habitat types to projected climate change-Implications for Bavarian protected areas. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:14417-14429. [PMID: 31938529 PMCID: PMC6953681 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5877] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2019] [Revised: 10/24/2019] [Accepted: 11/04/2019] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
AIM Due to their longevity and structure, forest ecosystems are particularly affected by climate change with consequences for their biodiversity, functioning, and services to mankind. In the European Union (EU), natural and seminatural forests are protected by the Habitats Directive and the Natura 2000 network. This study aimed to assess the exposure of three legally defined forest habitat types to climate change, namely (a) Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes, and ravines (9180*), (b) bog woodlands (91D0*), and (c) alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (91E0*). We analyzed possible changes in their Bavarian distribution, including their potential future coverage by Natura 2000 sites. We hypothesized that protected areas (PAs) with larger elevational ranges will remain suitable for the forests as they allow for altitudinal distribution shifts. METHODS To estimate changes in range size and coverage by PAs, we combined correlative species distribution models (SDMs) with spatial analyses. Ensembles of SDM-algorithms were applied to two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the HadGEM2-ES model for the period 2061-2080. RESULTS Our results revealed that bog woodlands experience the highest range losses (>2/3) and lowest PA coverage (max. 15% of sites with suitable conditions). Tilio-Acerion forests exhibit opposing trends depending on the scenario, while alluvial forests are less exposed to climatic changes. As expected, the impacts of climate change are more pronounced under the "business as usual" scenario (RCP8.5). Additionally, PAs in flat landscapes are more likely to lose environmental suitability for currently established forest habitat types. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Based on these findings, we advocate the expansion of the Natura 2000 network particularly in consideration of elevational gradients, connectivity, and projected climatic suitability. Nonclimatic stressors on forest ecosystems, especially bog woodlands, should be decreased and climate change mitigation efforts enhanced. We recommend transferring the approach to other habitat types and regions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Carl Beierkuhnlein
- Department of BiogeographyUniversity of BayreuthBayreuthGermany
- Bayreuth Center for Ecology and Environmental Research BayCEERBayreuthGermany
- Geographical Institute Bayreuth GIBBayreuthGermany
| | - Anja Jaeschke
- Department of BiogeographyUniversity of BayreuthBayreuthGermany
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22
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Morales-Barbero J, Ferrer-Castán D. Using a goal programming approach to design and evaluate protected areas for the conservation of multiple dimensions of biodiversity. J Nat Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2019.01.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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23
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Niche Estimation Above and Below the Species Level. Trends Ecol Evol 2019; 34:260-273. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.10.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 91] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2018] [Revised: 10/26/2018] [Accepted: 10/29/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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Kanagaraj R, Araujo MB, Barman R, Davidar P, De R, Digal DK, Gopi GV, Johnsingh AJT, Kakati K, Kramer‐Schadt S, Lamichhane BR, Lyngdoh S, Madhusudan MD, Ul Islam Najar M, Parida J, Pradhan NMB, Puyravaud J, Raghunath R, Rahim PPA, Muthamizh Selvan K, Subedi N, Trabucco A, Udayraj S, Wiegand T, Williams AC, Goyal SP. Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change. DIVERS DISTRIB 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12898] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Rajapandian Kanagaraj
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC Madrid Spain
- Department of Ecological Modeling Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ Leipzig Germany
- Wildlife Institute of India Dehradun India
| | - Miguel B. Araujo
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC Madrid Spain
- Biodiversity Chair University of Évora Évora Portugal
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate University of Copenhagen Copenhagen Denmark
| | | | - Priya Davidar
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Pondicherry University Pondicherry India
| | - Rahul De
- Wildlife Institute of India Dehradun India
| | - Dinesh K. Digal
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Pondicherry University Pondicherry India
| | - G. V. Gopi
- Wildlife Institute of India Dehradun India
| | | | | | - Stephanie Kramer‐Schadt
- Department of Ecological Dynamics Leibniz‐Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW) Berlin Germany
- Department of Ecology Technische Universität Berlin Berlin Germany
| | | | | | | | - Muneer Ul Islam Najar
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Pondicherry University Pondicherry India
| | - Jyotirmayee Parida
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Pondicherry University Pondicherry India
| | | | | | | | - P. P. Abdul Rahim
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Pondicherry University Pondicherry India
| | - K. Muthamizh Selvan
- Project Elephant DivisionMinistry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change New Delhi India
| | - Naresh Subedi
- National Trust for Nature Conservation Kathmandu Nepal
| | - Antonio Trabucco
- IAFES DivisionEuro‐Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Sassari Italy
| | - Swati Udayraj
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Pondicherry University Pondicherry India
| | - Thorsten Wiegand
- Department of Ecological Modeling Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ Leipzig Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig Leipzig Germany
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25
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Landscape Connectivity Planning for Adaptation to Future Climate and Land-Use Change. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s40823-019-0035-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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26
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Carroll C, Parks SA, Dobrowski SZ, Roberts DR. Climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors determine connectivity between current and future climate analogs in North America. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:5318-5331. [PMID: 29963741 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2018] [Revised: 06/07/2018] [Accepted: 06/21/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
As climatic conditions shift in coming decades, persistence of many populations will depend on their ability to colonize habitat newly suitable for their climatic requirements. Opportunities for such range shifts may be limited unless areas that facilitate dispersal under climate change are identified and protected from land uses that impede movement. While many climate adaptation strategies focus on identifying refugia, this study is the first to characterize areas which merit protection for their role in promoting climate connectivity at a continental extent. We identified climate connectivity areas across North America by delineating paths between current climate types and their future analogs that avoided nonanalogous climates, and used centrality metrics to rank the contribution of each location to facilitating dispersal across the landscape. The distribution of connectivity areas was influenced by climatic and topographic factors at multiple spatial scales. Results were robust to uncertainty in the magnitude of future climate change arising from differing emissions scenarios and general circulation models, but sensitive to analysis extent and assumptions concerning dispersal behavior and maximum dispersal distance. Paths were funneled along north-south trending passes and valley systems and away from areas of novel and disappearing climates. Climate connectivity areas, where many potential dispersal paths overlapped, were distinct from refugia and thus poorly captured by many existing conservation strategies. Existing protected areas with high connectivity values were found in southern Mexico, the southwestern US, and western and arctic Canada and Alaska. Ecoregions within the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Great Plains, eastern temperate forests, high Arctic, and western Canadian Cordillera hold important climate connectivity areas which merit increased conservation focus due to anthropogenic pressures or current low levels of protection. Our coarse-filter climate-type-based results complement and contextualize species-specific analyses and add a missing dimension to climate adaptation planning by identifying landscape features which promote connectivity among refugia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Carroll
- Klamath Center for Conservation Research, Orleans, California, USA
| | - Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Solomon Z Dobrowski
- Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - David R Roberts
- Department of Geography, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Arctic Institute of North America, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
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Shi J, Li X, Dong S, Zhuge H, Mu Y. Trans-boundary conservation of Chiru by identifying its potential movement corridors in the alpine desert of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Glob Ecol Conserv 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2018.e00491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022] Open
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28
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Tropical Protected Areas Under Increasing Threats from Climate Change and Deforestation. LAND 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/land7030090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Identifying protected areas most susceptible to climate change and deforestation represents critical information for determining conservation investments. Development of effective landscape interventions is required to ensure the preservation and protection of these areas essential to ecosystem service provision, provide high biodiversity value, and serve a critical habitat connectivity role. We identified vulnerable protected areas in the humid tropical forest biome using climate metrics for 2050 and future deforestation risk for 2024 modeled from historical deforestation and global drivers of deforestation. Results show distinct continental and regional patterns of combined threats to protected areas. Eleven Mha (2%) of global humid tropical protected area was exposed to the highest combined threats and should be prioritized for investments in landscape interventions focused on adaptation to climate stressors. Global tropical protected area exposed to the lowest deforestation risk but highest climate risks totaled 135 Mha (26%). Thirty-five percent of South America’s protected area fell into this risk category and should be prioritized for increasing protected area size and connectivity to facilitate species movement. Global humid tropical protected area exposed to a combination of the lowest deforestation and lowest climate risks totaled 89 Mha (17%), and were disproportionately located in Africa (34%) and Asia (17%), indicating opportunities for low-risk conservation investments for improved connectivity to these potential climate refugia. This type of biome-scale, protected area analysis, combining both climate change and deforestation threats, is critical to informing policies and landscape interventions to maximize investments for environmental conservation and increase ecosystem resilience to climate change.
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Alagador D, Cerdeira JO. A quantitative analysis on the effects of critical factors limiting the effectiveness of species conservation in future time. Ecol Evol 2018; 8:3457-3467. [PMID: 29607038 PMCID: PMC5869367 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2017] [Revised: 12/01/2017] [Accepted: 12/11/2017] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
The effectiveness of conservation plans depends on environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic factors. Global change makes conservation decisions even more challenging. Among others, the components of most concern in modern-day conservation assessments are as follows: the magnitude of climate and land-use changes; species dispersal abilities; competition with harmful socioeconomic activities for land use; the number of threatened species to consider; and, relatedly, the available budget to act. Here, we provide a unified framework that quantifies the relative effects of those factors on conservation. We conducted an area-scheduling work plan in order to identify sets of areas along time in which the persistence expectancies of species are optimized. The approach was illustrated using data of potential distribution of ten nonvolant mammal species in Iberia Peninsula from current time up to 2080. Analyses were conducted considering possible setups among the factors that are likely to critically impact conservation success: three climate/land-use scenarios; four species' dispersal kernel curves; six land-use layer types; and two planning designs, in which assessments were made independently for each species, or joining all species in a single plan. We identified areas for an array of investments levels capable to circumvent the spatial conflicts with socioeconomic activities. The effect of each factor on the estimated species persistence scores was assessed using linear mixed models. Our results evidence that conservation success is highly reliant on the resources available to abate land-use conflicts. Nonetheless, under the same investment levels, planning design and climate change were the factors that most shaped species persistence scores. The persistence of five species was especially affected by the sole effect of planning design and consequently, larger conservation investments may retard climatic debts. For three species, the negative effects of a changing climate and of multiple-species planning designs added up, making these species especially at risk. Integrated assessments of the factors most likely to limit species persistence are pivotal to achieve effectiveness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diogo Alagador
- CIBIO/InBio-UE: Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos Universidade de Évora Évora Portugal
| | - Jorge Orestes Cerdeira
- Departamento de Matemática Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia Universidade NOVA de Lisboa Caparica Portugal.,Centro de Matemática e Aplicações Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia Universidade NOVA de Lisboa Caparica Portugal
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Tomlinson S, Webber BL, Bradshaw SD, Dixon KW, Renton M. Incorporating biophysical ecology into high‐resolution restoration targets: insect pollinator habitat suitability models. Restor Ecol 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.12561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Sean Tomlinson
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Western Australia 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 Australia
- Kings Park Botanic Gardens Fraser Avenue, Kings Park, Perth WA 6005 Australia
| | - Bruce Lloyd Webber
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Western Australia 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 Australia
- CSIRO Land and Water 147 Underwood Avenue, Floreat WA 6016 Australia
| | - Sidney Don Bradshaw
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Western Australia 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 Australia
| | - Kingsley Wayne Dixon
- Department of Environment and Agriculture Curtin University Kent Street, Bentley WA 6102 Australia
| | - Michael Renton
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Western Australia 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 Australia
- School of Agriculture and Environment The University of Western Australia 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 Australia
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31
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Lennox GD, Fargione J, Spector S, Williams G, Armsworth PR. The value of flexibility in conservation financing. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2017; 31:666-674. [PMID: 27273603 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12771] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2015] [Revised: 04/05/2016] [Accepted: 05/30/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Land-acquisition strategies employed by conservation organizations vary in their flexibility. Conservation-planning theory largely fails to reflect this by presenting models that are either extremely inflexible-parcel acquisitions are irreversible and budgets are fixed-or extremely flexible-previously acquired parcels can readily be sold. This latter approach, the selling of protected areas, is infeasible or problematic in many situations. We considered the value to conservation organizations of increasing the flexibility of their land-acquisition strategies through their approach to financing deals. Specifically, we modeled 2 acquisition-financing methods commonly used by conservation organizations: borrowing and budget carry-over. Using simulated data, we compared results from these models with those from an inflexible fixed-budget model and an extremely flexible selling model in which previous acquisitions could be sold to fund new acquisitions. We then examined 3 case studies of how conservation organizations use borrowing and budget carry-over in practice. Model comparisons showed that borrowing and budget carry-over always returned considerably higher rewards than the fixed-budget model. How they performed relative to the selling model depended on the relative conservation value of past acquisitions. Both the models and case studies showed that incorporating flexibility through borrowing or budget carry-over gives conservation organizations the ability to purchase parcels of higher conservation value than when budgets are fixed without the problems associated with the selling of protected areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gareth D Lennox
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1, 4YQ, U.K
| | - Joseph Fargione
- The Nature Conservancy, 1101 West River Parkway, Suite 200, Minneapolis, MN, 55415, U.S.A
| | - Sacha Spector
- Scenic Hudson, One Civic Center Plaza, Suite 200, Poughkeepsie, NY, 12601, U.S.A
| | - Gwyn Williams
- The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Potton Road, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL, U.K
| | - Paul R Armsworth
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996, U.S.A
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Alagador D, Cerdeira JO. Meeting species persistence targets under climate change: A spatially explicit conservation planning model. DIVERS DISTRIB 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Diogo Alagador
- CIBIO/InBio-UE: Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Universidade de Évora; Évora Portugal
| | - Jorge Orestes Cerdeira
- Departamento de Matemática and Centro de Matemática e Aplicações; Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia; Universidade NOVA de Lisboa; Caparica Portugal
- Centro de Estudos Florestais (CEF); Instituto Superior de Agronomia; Universidade de Lisboa; Lisboa Portugal
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Brambilla M, Caprio E, Assandri G, Scridel D, Bassi E, Bionda R, Celada C, Falco R, Bogliani G, Pedrini P, Rolando A, Chamberlain D. A spatially explicit definition of conservation priorities according to population resistance and resilience, species importance and level of threat in a changing climate. DIVERS DISTRIB 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Mattia Brambilla
- Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati; Corso della Scienza e del Lavoro; Trento Italy
- Fondazione Lombardia per l'Ambiente; Settore Biodiversità e Aree protette; Seveso Italy
| | - Enrico Caprio
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e Biologia dei Sistemi; Università di Torino; Torino Italy
| | - Giacomo Assandri
- Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati; Corso della Scienza e del Lavoro; Trento Italy
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e dell'Ambiente; Università degli Studi di Pavia; Pavia Italy
| | - Davide Scridel
- Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati; Corso della Scienza e del Lavoro; Trento Italy
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e dell'Ambiente; Università degli Studi di Pavia; Pavia Italy
| | - Enrico Bassi
- Parco Nazionale dello Stelvio; Ufficio Faunistico; Bormio Italy
| | - Radames Bionda
- Parco Naturale Alpe Veglia e Devero - Alta Valle Antrona; Varzo Italy
| | - Claudio Celada
- Lega Italiana Protezione Uccelli (LIPU/BirdLife Italia); Parma Italy
| | - Riccardo Falco
- Fondazione Lombardia per l'Ambiente; Settore Biodiversità e Aree protette; Seveso Italy
| | - Giuseppe Bogliani
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e dell'Ambiente; Università degli Studi di Pavia; Pavia Italy
| | - Paolo Pedrini
- Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati; Corso della Scienza e del Lavoro; Trento Italy
| | - Antonio Rolando
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e Biologia dei Sistemi; Università di Torino; Torino Italy
| | - Dan Chamberlain
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e Biologia dei Sistemi; Università di Torino; Torino Italy
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