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Jung M, Alagador D, Chapman M, Hermoso V, Kujala H, O'Connor L, Schinegger R, Verburg PH, Visconti P. An assessment of the state of conservation planning in Europe. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20230015. [PMID: 38583468 PMCID: PMC10999267 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Accepted: 11/11/2023] [Indexed: 04/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Expanding and managing current habitat and species protection measures is at the heart of the European biodiversity strategy. A structured approach is needed to gain insights into such issues is systematic conservation planning, which uses techniques from decision theory to identify places and actions that contribute most effectively to policy objectives given a set of constraints. Yet culturally and historically determined European landscapes make the implementation of any conservation plans challenging, requiring an analysis of synergies and trade-offs before implementation. In this work, we review the scientific literature for evidence of previous conservation planning approaches, highlighting recent advances and success stories. We find that the conceptual characteristics of European conservation planning studies likely reduced their potential in contributing to better-informed decisions. We outline pathways towards improving the uptake of decision theory and multi-criteria conservation planning at various scales, particularly highlighting the need for (a) open data and intuitive tools, (b) the integration of biodiversity-focused conservation planning with multiple objectives, (c) accounting of dynamic ecological processes and functions, and (d) better facilitation of entry-points and co-design practices of conservation planning scenarios with stakeholders. By adopting and improving these practices, European conservation planning might become more actionable and adaptable towards implementable policy outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Jung
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlosspark 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
| | - Diogo Alagador
- Biodiversity Chair, MED: Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, 7006-554, University of Evora, Portugal
| | - Melissa Chapman
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlosspark 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Virgilio Hermoso
- Department of Plant Biology and Ecology, University of Sevilla, 41012, Seville, Spain
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, 00100 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Louise O'Connor
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlosspark 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
- Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Université Grenoble Alpes, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Grenoble, F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Rafaela Schinegger
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - Peter H. Verburg
- VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Swiss Federal Institute WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Piero Visconti
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlosspark 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
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2
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Hällfors MH, Heikkinen RK, Kuussaari M, Lehikoinen A, Luoto M, Pöyry J, Virkkala R, Saastamoinen M, Kujala H. Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche. Evol Lett 2024; 8:89-100. [PMID: 38370541 PMCID: PMC10872046 DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrad004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Revised: 01/26/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria H Hällfors
- Research Centre for Environmental Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Risto K Heikkinen
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Miska Luoto
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Raimo Virkkala
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Marjo Saastamoinen
- Research Centre for Environmental Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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3
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Mäkelä A, Minunno F, Kujala H, Kosenius AK, Heikkinen RK, Junttila V, Peltoniemi M, Forsius M. Effect of forest management choices on carbon sequestration and biodiversity at national scale. Ambio 2023; 52:1737-1756. [PMID: 37535310 PMCID: PMC10562327 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01899-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2022] [Revised: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 06/16/2023] [Indexed: 08/04/2023]
Abstract
Forest management methods and harvest intensities influence wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. We devised different management scenarios by means of stakeholder analysis and incorporated them in the forest growth simulator PREBAS. To analyse impacts of harvest intensity, we used constraints on total harvest: business as usual, low harvest, intensive harvest and no harvest. We carried out simulations on a wall-to-wall grid in Finland until 2050. Our objectives were to (1) test how the management scenarios differed in their projections, (2) analyse the potential wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity under the different harvest levels, and (3) compare different options of allocating the scenarios and protected areas. Harvest level was key to carbon stocks and fluxes regardless of management actions and moderate changes in proportion of strictly protected forest. In contrast, biodiversity was more dependent on other management variables than harvesting levels, and relatively independent of carbon stocks and fluxes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annikki Mäkelä
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) & Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Francesco Minunno
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) & Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Natural History Museum, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anna-Kaisa Kosenius
- Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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4
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Alam SA, Kivinen S, Kujala H, Tanhuanpää T, Forsius M. Integrating carbon sequestration and biodiversity impacts in forested ecosystems: Concepts, cases, and policies. Ambio 2023; 52:1687-1696. [PMID: 37715896 PMCID: PMC10562350 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01931-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/18/2023]
Abstract
The challenges posed by climate change, biodiversity loss, and land-use are deeply interconnected and integrated solutions are needed. This paper presents results from 11 contributions to a special issue covering topics of integrated modeling and spatial prioritization, mass-balance studies, Earth Observation techniques, research infrastructure developments, and evaluation of policy measures and economic compensation schemes. The spatial scale of the studies ranges from detailed site-specific to a European scale. This paper briefly summarizes the main findings of these studies, makes some general overall conclusions, and identifies topics for further research and methods developments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Syed Ashraful Alam
- Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, Latokartanonkaari 7, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Sonja Kivinen
- Department of Geographical and Historical Studies, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistonkatu 7, 80101 Joensuu, Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Natural History Museum, University of Helsinki, Pohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13, P.O. Box 17, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Topi Tanhuanpää
- Department of Geographical and Historical Studies, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistonkatu 7, 80101 Joensuu, Finland
| | - Martin Forsius
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
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5
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Tanhuanpää T, Mikkonen N, Kujala H, Heinaro E, Mäyrä J, Kumpula T. Input data resolution affects the conservation prioritization outcome of spatially sparse biodiversity features. Ambio 2023; 52:1793-1803. [PMID: 37266861 PMCID: PMC10562354 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01885-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Revised: 04/21/2023] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Detailed spatial data are an essential part of land use planning and decision-making. Their spatial resolution sets limitations to their use, as coarse datasets are not suitable for detecting small-scale phenomena. In this study, we explored the effects of spatial resolution on the ecological outcome of a conservation prioritization process in Zonation software. Our study area was in Evo, southern Finland, covering a mosaic of managed and conserved forests. We produced the feature layers describing the forest characteristics using high-resolution remote sensing datasets, object-based mapping methods, and forest site type data. We found that increasing the resolution above the 16 m baseline resolution resulted in substantial errors. The conservation errors were the highest for rare features related to European Aspen, whereas the common features related to dominant tree species could benefit from the growth of cell size. We conclude that adequate spatial resolution is a prerequisite for efficient conservation prioritization, and that the size and spatial distribution of the features affect the resolution requirements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Topi Tanhuanpää
- Department of Geographical and Historical Studies, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistonkatu 7, 80101 Joensuu, Finland
| | - Ninni Mikkonen
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Natural History Museum, University of Helsinki, Pohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13, P.O. Box 17, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Einari Heinaro
- Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, Latokartankonkaari 7, P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Janne Mäyrä
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Timo Kumpula
- Department of Geographical and Historical Studies, University of Eastern Finland, Yliopistonkatu 7, 80101 Joensuu, Finland
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6
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Kujala H, Minunno F, Junttila V, Mikkonen N, Mäkelä A, Virkkala R, Akujärvi A, Leikola N, Heikkinen RK. Role of data uncertainty when identifying important areas for biodiversity and carbon in boreal forests. Ambio 2023; 52:1804-1818. [PMID: 37656359 PMCID: PMC10562324 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01908-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2022] [Revised: 03/12/2023] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 09/02/2023]
Abstract
Forest conservation plays a central role in meeting national and international biodiversity and climate targets. Biodiversity and carbon values within forests are often estimated with models, introducing uncertainty to decision making on which forest stands to protect. Here, we explore how uncertainties in forest variable estimates affect modelled biodiversity and carbon patterns, and how this in turn introduces variability in the selection of new protected areas. We find that both biodiversity and carbon patterns were sensitive to alterations in forest attributes. Uncertainty in features that were rare and/or had dissimilar distributions with other features introduced most variation to conservation plans. The most critical data uncertainty also depended on what fraction of the landscape was being protected. Forests of highest conservation value were more robust to data uncertainties than forests of lesser conservation value. Identifying critical sources of model uncertainty helps to effectively reduce errors in conservation decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heini Kujala
- Finnish Natural History Museum, University of Helsinki, (Pohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13), P.O. Box 17, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Francesco Minunno
- Department of Forest Science, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Virpi Junttila
- Finnish Environment Institute Syke, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ninni Mikkonen
- Finnish Environment Institute Syke, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Annikki Mäkelä
- Department of Forest Science, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Raimo Virkkala
- Finnish Environment Institute Syke, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anu Akujärvi
- Finnish Environment Institute Syke, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Niko Leikola
- Finnish Environment Institute Syke, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Risto K. Heikkinen
- Finnish Environment Institute Syke, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
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7
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Forsius M, Holmberg M, Junttila V, Kujala H, Schulz T, Paunu VV, Savolahti M, Minunno F, Akujärvi A, Bäck J, Grönroos J, Heikkinen RK, Karvosenoja N, Mäkelä A, Mikkonen N, Pekkonen M, Rankinen K, Virkkala R. Modelling the regional potential for reaching carbon neutrality in Finland: Sustainable forestry, energy use and biodiversity protection. Ambio 2023; 52:1757-1776. [PMID: 37561360 PMCID: PMC10562359 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01860-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Revised: 01/23/2023] [Accepted: 03/22/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426-452 TgC) and sequestration potential (- 12 to - 17.5 TgCO2eq a-1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Forsius
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Maria Holmberg
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Virpi Junttila
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Natural History Museum, University of Helsinki, (Pohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13), P.O. Box 17, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Torsti Schulz
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ville-Veikko Paunu
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mikko Savolahti
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Francesco Minunno
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) & Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, (Latokartanonkaari 7), P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anu Akujärvi
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jaana Bäck
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) & Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, (Latokartanonkaari 7), P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Grönroos
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Risto K. Heikkinen
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Niko Karvosenoja
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Annikki Mäkelä
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) & Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, (Latokartanonkaari 7), P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ninni Mikkonen
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Minna Pekkonen
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Katri Rankinen
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Raimo Virkkala
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
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8
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Virkkala R, Leikola N, Kujala H, Kivinen S, Hurskainen P, Kuusela S, Valkama J, Heikkinen RK. Developing fine-grained nationwide predictions of valuable forests using biodiversity indicator bird species. Ecol Appl 2022; 32:e2505. [PMID: 34866270 PMCID: PMC9285730 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2021] [Revised: 03/18/2021] [Accepted: 05/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The use of indicator species in forest conservation and management planning can facilitate enhanced preservation of biodiversity from the negative effects of forestry and other uses of land. However, this requires detailed and spatially comprehensive knowledge of the habitat preferences and distributions of selected focal indicator species. Unfortunately, due to limited resources for field surveys, only a small proportion of the occurrences of focal species is usually known. This shortcoming can be circumvented by using modeling techniques to predict the spatial distribution of suitable sites for the target species. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) and other remote sensing (RS) techniques have the potential to provide useful environmental data covering systematically large areas for these purposes. Here, we focused on six bird of prey and woodpecker species known to be good indicators of boreal forest biodiversity values. We used known nest sites of the six indicator species based on nestling ringing records. Thus, the most suitable nesting sites of these species provide important information for biodiversity-friendly forest management and conservation planning. We developed fine-grained, that is, 96 × 96 m grid cell resolution, predictive maps across the whole of Finland of the suitable nesting habitats based on ALS and other RS data and spatial information on the distribution of important forest stands for the six studied biodiversity indicator bird species based on nesting-habitat suitability modeling, that is, the MaxEnt model. Habitat preferences of the study species, as determined by MaxEnt, were in line with the previous knowledge of species-habitat relations. The proportion of suitable habitats of these species in protected areas (PAs) was considerable, but our analysis also revealed many potentially high-quality forest stands outside PAs. However, many of these sites are increasingly threatened by logging because of increased pressures for using forests for bioeconomy and forest industry based on National Forest Strategy. Predicting habitat suitability based on information on the nest sites of indicator species provides a new tool for systematic conservation planning over large areas in boreal forests in Europe, and a corresponding approach would also be feasible and recommendable elsewhere where similar data are available.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raimo Virkkala
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity CentreHelsinkiFinland
| | - Niko Leikola
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity CentreHelsinkiFinland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Museum of Natural HistoryUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
| | - Sonja Kivinen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity CentreHelsinkiFinland
- Department of Geographical and Historical StudiesUniversity of Eastern FinlandJoensuuFinland
| | - Pekka Hurskainen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity CentreHelsinkiFinland
| | - Saija Kuusela
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity CentreHelsinkiFinland
| | - Jari Valkama
- Finnish Museum of Natural HistoryUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
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9
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Moilanen A, Lehtinen P, Kohonen I, Jalkanen J, Virtanen EA, Kujala H. Novel methods for spatial prioritization with applications in conservation, land use planning and ecological impact avoidance. Methods Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Atte Moilanen
- Finnish Natural History Museum, P.O. Box 17, FI‐ 00014 University of Helsinki Finland
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, FI‐00014 University of Helsinki Finland
| | - Pauli Lehtinen
- Finnish Natural History Museum, P.O. Box 17, FI‐ 00014 University of Helsinki Finland
| | - Ilmari Kohonen
- Finnish Natural History Museum, P.O. Box 17, FI‐ 00014 University of Helsinki Finland
| | - Joel Jalkanen
- Finnish Natural History Museum, P.O. Box 17, FI‐ 00014 University of Helsinki Finland
| | - Elina A. Virtanen
- Finnish Natural History Museum, P.O. Box 17, FI‐ 00014 University of Helsinki Finland
- Marine Research Centre Finnish Environment Institute Helsinki Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Natural History Museum, P.O. Box 17, FI‐ 00014 University of Helsinki Finland
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10
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Marshall E, Visintin C, Valavi R, Wilkinson DP, Southwell D, Wintle B, Kujala H. Integrating species metrics into biodiversity offsetting calculations to improve long‐term persistence. J Appl Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Erica Marshall
- University of Melbourne School of Biosciences VIC Australia
- National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recover Hub
- University of Melbourne School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences VIC Australia
| | - Casey Visintin
- University of Melbourne School of Biosciences VIC Australia
| | - Roozbeh Valavi
- University of Melbourne School of Biosciences VIC Australia
| | | | - Darren Southwell
- University of Melbourne School of Biosciences VIC Australia
- National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recover Hub
| | - Brendan Wintle
- University of Melbourne School of Biosciences VIC Australia
- National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recover Hub
| | - Heini Kujala
- University of Melbourne School of Biosciences VIC Australia
- National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recover Hub
- Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
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11
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Muscatello A, Elith J, Kujala H. How decisions about fitting species distribution models affect conservation outcomes. Conserv Biol 2021; 35:1309-1320. [PMID: 33236808 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13669] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2020] [Revised: 11/10/2020] [Accepted: 11/18/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used in conservation and land-use planning as inputs to describe biodiversity patterns. These models can be built in different ways, and decisions about data preparation, selection of predictor variables, model fitting, and evaluation all alter the resulting predictions. Commonly, the true distribution of species is unknown and independent data to verify which SDM variant to choose are lacking. Such model uncertainty is of concern to planners. We analyzed how 11 routine decisions about model complexity, predictors, bias treatment, and setting thresholds for predicted values altered conservation priority patterns across 25 species. Models were created with MaxEnt and run through Zonation to determine the priority rank of sites. Although all SDM variants performed well (area under the curve >0.7), they produced spatially different predictions for species and different conservation priority solutions. Priorities were most strongly altered by decisions to not address bias or to apply binary thresholds to predicted values; on average 40% and 35%, respectively, of all grid cells received an opposite priority ranking. Forcing high model complexity altered conservation solutions less than forcing simplicity (14% and 24% of cells with opposite rank values, respectively). Use of fewer species records to build models or choosing alternative bias treatments had intermediate effects (25% and 23%, respectively). Depending on modeling choices, priority areas overlapped as little as 10-20% with the baseline solution, affecting top and bottom priorities differently. Our results demonstrate the extent of model-based uncertainty and quantify the relative impacts of SDM building decisions. When it is uncertain what the best SDM approach and conservation plan is, solving uncertainty or considering alterative options is most important for those decisions that change plans the most.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angela Muscatello
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Jane Elith
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Heini Kujala
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, 3010, Australia
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, FI-00140, Finland
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12
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Marshall E, Valavi R, Connor LO, Cadenhead N, Southwell D, Wintle BA, Kujala H. Quantifying the impact of vegetation-based metrics on species persistence when choosing offsets for habitat destruction. Conserv Biol 2021; 35:567-577. [PMID: 32720732 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13600] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2020] [Revised: 07/21/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Developers are often required by law to offset environmental impacts through targeted conservation actions. Most offset policies specify metrics for calculating offset requirements, usually by assessing vegetation condition. Despite widespread use, there is little evidence to support the effectiveness of vegetation-based metrics for ensuring biodiversity persistence. We compared long-term impacts of biodiversity offsetting based on area only; vegetation condition only; area × habitat suitability; and condition × habitat suitability in development and restoration simulations for the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia. We simulated development and subsequent offsetting through restoration within a virtual landscape, linking simulations to population viability models for 3 species. Habitat gains did not ensure species persistence. No net loss was achieved when performance of offsetting was assessed in terms of amount of habitat restored, but not when outcomes were assessed in terms of persistence. Maintenance of persistence occurred more often when impacts were avoided, giving further support to better enforce the avoidance stage of the mitigation hierarchy. When development affected areas of high habitat quality for species, persistence could not be guaranteed. Therefore, species must be more explicitly accounted for in offsets, rather than just vegetation or habitat alone. Declines due to a failure to account directly for species population dynamics and connectivity overshadowed the benefits delivered by producing large areas of high-quality habitat. Our modeling framework showed that the benefits delivered by offsets are species specific and that simple vegetation-based metrics can give misguided impressions on how well biodiversity offsets achieve no net loss.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erica Marshall
- School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
- National Environmental Science Program, Threatened Species Recover Hub
| | - Roozbeh Valavi
- School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Louise O' Connor
- University Grenoble alpes, CNRS, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, LECA, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Grenoble, France
| | - Natasha Cadenhead
- School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
- National Environmental Science Program, Threatened Species Recover Hub
| | - Darren Southwell
- School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
- National Environmental Science Program, Threatened Species Recover Hub
| | - Brendan A Wintle
- School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
- National Environmental Science Program, Threatened Species Recover Hub
| | - Heini Kujala
- School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
- National Environmental Science Program, Threatened Species Recover Hub
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, FI, 00140, Finland
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13
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Hallam CD, Wintle BA, Kujala H, Whitehead AL, Nicholson E. Measuring impacts on species with models and metrics of varying ecological and computational complexity. Conserv Biol 2020; 34:1512-1524. [PMID: 32390253 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13524] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2019] [Revised: 02/05/2020] [Accepted: 04/19/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Approaches to assess the impacts of landscape disturbance scenarios on species range from metrics based on patterns of occurrence or habitat to comprehensive models that explicitly include ecological processes. The choice of metrics and models affects how impacts are interpreted and conservation decisions. We explored the impacts of 3 realistic disturbance scenarios on 4 species with different ecological and taxonomic traits. We used progressively more complex models and metrics to evaluate relative impact and rank of scenarios on the species. Models ranged from species distribution models that relied on implicit assumptions about environmental factors and species presence to highly parameterized spatially explicit population models that explicitly included ecological processes and stochasticity. Metrics performed consistently in ranking different scenarios in order of severity primarily when variation in impact was driven by habitat amount. However, they differed in rank for cases where dispersal dynamics were critical in influencing metapopulation persistence. Impacts of scenarios on species with low dispersal ability were better characterized using models that explicitly captured these processes. Metapopulation capacity provided rank orders that most consistently correlated with those from highly parameterized and data-rich models and incorporated information about dispersal with little additional computational and data cost. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering species' ecology, spatial configuration of habitat, and disturbance when choosing indicators of species persistence. We suggest using hybrid approaches that are a mixture of simple and complex models to improve multispecies assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher D Hallam
- School of Bioscience, University of Melbourne, Building 122, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Brendan A Wintle
- School of Bioscience, University of Melbourne, Building 122, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Heini Kujala
- School of Bioscience, University of Melbourne, Building 122, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Amy L Whitehead
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, 10 Kyle Street, Riccarton, Christchurch, 8011, New Zealand
| | - Emily Nicholson
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology (Burwood Campus), Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, VIC, 3125, Australia
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14
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Moilanen A, Kujala H, Mikkonen N. A practical method for evaluating spatial biodiversity offset scenarios based on spatial conservation prioritization outputs. Methods Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Atte Moilanen
- Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
- Department of Geosciences and Geography University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
- School of BioSciences The University of Melbourne Melbourne Vic. Australia
- National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recovery Hub Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - Ninni Mikkonen
- Department of Geosciences and Geography University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
- Finnish Environment Institute Helsinki Finland
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15
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Selwood KE, Wintle BA, Kujala H. Collaborative conservation planning: Quantifying the contribution of expert engagement to identify spatial conservation priorities. Conserv Lett 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine E. Selwood
- School of Biosciences University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia
- Wildlife and Conservation Science Zoos Victoria Parkville Victoria Australia
| | - Brendan A. Wintle
- School of Biosciences University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia
| | - Heini Kujala
- School of Biosciences University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia
- Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
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16
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Hossain MA, Kujala H, Bland LM, Burgman M, Lahoz‐Monfort JJ. Assessing the impacts of uncertainty in climate‐change vulnerability assessments. DIVERS DISTRIB 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12936] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Md Anwar Hossain
- School of BioSciences The University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia
| | - Heini Kujala
- School of BioSciences The University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia
| | - Lucie M. Bland
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Burwood Victoria Australia
| | - Mark Burgman
- Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London London UK
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17
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Smith AL, Kujala H, Lahoz‐Monfort JJ, Guja LK, Burns EL, Nathan R, Alacs E, Barton PS, Bau S, Driscoll DA, Lentini PE, Mortelliti A, Rowe R, Buckley YM. Managing uncertainty in movement knowledge for environmental decisions. Conserv Lett 2019; 12:e12620. [PMID: 31423150 PMCID: PMC6686712 DOI: 10.1111/conl.12620] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2018] [Revised: 08/17/2018] [Accepted: 11/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Species' movements affect their response to environmental change but movement knowledge is often highly uncertain. We now have well-established methods to integrate movement knowledge into conservation practice but still lack a framework to deal with uncertainty in movement knowledge for environmental decisions. We provide a framework that distinguishes two dimensions of species' movement that are heavily influenced by uncertainty: knowledge about movement and relevance of movement to environmental decisions. Management decisions can be informed by their position in this knowledge-relevance space. We then outline a framework to support decisions around (1) increasing understanding of the relevance of movement knowledge, (2) increasing robustness of decisions to uncertainties and (3) improving knowledge on species' movement. Our decision-support framework provides guidance for managing movement-related uncertainty in systematic conservation planning, agri-environment schemes, habitat restoration and international biodiversity policy. It caters to different resource levels (time and funding) so that species' movement knowledge can be more effectively integrated into environmental decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annabel L. Smith
- School of Natural Sciences, Zoology, Trinity College DublinThe University of DublinDublin 2Ireland
| | - Heini Kujala
- School of BiosciencesThe University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia
| | | | - Lydia K. Guja
- Parks Australia Division, Department of the Environment and EnergyAustralian GovernmentCanberraAustralia
- Centre for Australian National Biodiversity ResearchCSIROCanberraAustralia
| | - Emma L. Burns
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyAustralian National UniversityCanberraAustralia
- Long Term Ecological Research NetworkTerrestrial Ecosystem Research NetworkCanberraAustralia
| | - Ran Nathan
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, The Alexander Silberman Institute of Life SciencesThe Hebrew University of JerusalemJerusalemIsrael
| | - Erika Alacs
- Wildlife Heritage & Marine Division, Department of the Environment and EnergyAustralian GovernmentCanberraAustralia
| | - Philip S. Barton
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyAustralian National UniversityCanberraAustralia
| | - Sana Bau
- School of BiosciencesThe University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia
| | - Don A. Driscoll
- School of Life and Environmental SciencesDeakin University GeelongBurwoodVictoriaAustralia
| | - Pia E. Lentini
- School of BiosciencesThe University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia
| | - Alessio Mortelliti
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Conservation BiologyUniversity of MaineOronoMaineUSA
| | - Ross Rowe
- Environment Standards Division, Department of the Environment and EnergyAustralian GovernmentCanberraAustralia
| | - Yvonne M. Buckley
- School of Natural Sciences, Zoology, Trinity College DublinThe University of DublinDublin 2Ireland
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
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18
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Kujala H, Lahoz‐Monfort JJ, Elith J, Moilanen A. Not all data are equal: Influence of data type and amount in spatial conservation prioritisation. Methods Ecol Evol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Heini Kujala
- School of BiosciencesThe University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | | | - Jane Elith
- School of BiosciencesThe University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental DecisionsThe University of Melbourne Melbourne Australia
| | - Atte Moilanen
- Finnish Natural History MuseumUniversity of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
- Department of Geosciences and GeographyUniversity of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
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19
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Hossain MA, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Burgman MA, Böhm M, Kujala H, Bland LM. Assessing the vulnerability of freshwater crayfish to climate change. DIVERS DISTRIB 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Md Anwar Hossain
- School of BioSciences; The University of Melbourne; Parkville Victoria Australia
| | | | - Mark A. Burgman
- Centre for Environmental Policy; Imperial College London; London UK
| | - Monika Böhm
- Institute of Zoology; Zoological Society of London; Regent's Park; London UK
| | - Heini Kujala
- School of BioSciences; The University of Melbourne; Parkville Victoria Australia
| | - Lucie M. Bland
- Centre for Integrative Ecology; School of Life and Environmental Sciences; Deakin University; Burwood Victoria Australia
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20
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Affiliation(s)
- Heini Kujala
- School of BioSciences The University of Melbourne Melbourne Vic. Australia
- National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Threatened Species Recovery Hub Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - Atte Moilanen
- Department of Biosciences University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
| | - Ascelin Gordon
- National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Threatened Species Recovery Hub Melbourne Vic. Australia
- School of Global, Urban and Social Studies RMIT University Melbourne Vic. Australia
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21
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Whitehead AL, Kujala H, Wintle BA. Dealing with Cumulative Biodiversity Impacts in Strategic Environmental Assessment: A New Frontier for Conservation Planning. Conserv Lett 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Heini Kujala
- School of BioSciences The University of Melbourne Parkville VIC 3010 Australia
| | - Brendan A. Wintle
- School of BioSciences The University of Melbourne Parkville VIC 3010 Australia
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22
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Maron M, Ives CD, Kujala H, Bull JW, Maseyk FJF, Bekessy S, Gordon A, Watson JE, Lentini PE, Gibbons P, Possingham HP, Hobbs RJ, Keith DA, Wintle BA, Evans MC. Taming a Wicked Problem: Resolving Controversies in Biodiversity Offsetting. Bioscience 2016. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biw038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 125] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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23
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Barton PS, Lentini PE, Alacs E, Bau S, Buckley YM, Burns EL, Driscoll DA, Guja LK, Kujala H, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Mortelliti A, Nathan R, Rowe R, Smith AL. Guidelines for Using Movement Science to Inform Biodiversity Policy. Environ Manage 2015; 56:791-801. [PMID: 26099570 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-015-0570-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2014] [Accepted: 06/15/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Substantial advances have been made in our understanding of the movement of species, including processes such as dispersal and migration. This knowledge has the potential to improve decisions about biodiversity policy and management, but it can be difficult for decision makers to readily access and integrate the growing body of movement science. This is, in part, due to a lack of synthesis of information that is sufficiently contextualized for a policy audience. Here, we identify key species movement concepts, including mechanisms, types, and moderators of movement, and review their relevance to (1) national biodiversity policies and strategies, (2) reserve planning and management, (3) threatened species protection and recovery, (4) impact and risk assessments, and (5) the prioritization of restoration actions. Based on the review, and considering recent developments in movement ecology, we provide a new framework that draws links between aspects of movement knowledge that are likely the most relevant to each biodiversity policy category. Our framework also shows that there is substantial opportunity for collaboration between researchers and government decision makers in the use of movement science to promote positive biodiversity outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip S Barton
- National Environmental Research Program, Environmental Decisions Hub, Canberra, Australia,
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24
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Pollock LJ, Rosauer DF, Thornhill AH, Kujala H, Crisp MD, Miller JT, McCarthy MA. Phylogenetic diversity meets conservation policy: small areas are key to preserving eucalypt lineages. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:20140007. [PMID: 25561668 PMCID: PMC4290421 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2014.0007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Evolutionary and genetic knowledge is increasingly being valued in conservation theory, but is rarely considered in conservation planning and policy. Here, we integrate phylogenetic diversity (PD) with spatial reserve prioritization to evaluate how well the existing reserve system in Victoria, Australia captures the evolutionary lineages of eucalypts, which dominate forest canopies across the state. Forty-three per cent of remaining native woody vegetation in Victoria is located in protected areas (mostly national parks) representing 48% of the extant PD found in the state. A modest expansion in protected areas of 5% (less than 1% of the state area) would increase protected PD by 33% over current levels. In a recent policy change, portions of the national parks were opened for development. These tourism development zones hold over half the PD found in national parks with some species and clades falling entirely outside of protected zones within the national parks. This approach of using PD in spatial prioritization could be extended to any clade or area that has spatial and phylogenetic data. Our results demonstrate the relevance of PD to regional conservation policy by highlighting that small but strategically located areas disproportionally impact the preservation of evolutionary lineages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura J Pollock
- School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Dan F Rosauer
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Andrew H Thornhill
- Australian Tropical Herbarium, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia Australian National Herbarium, CSIRO, Plant Industry, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Heini Kujala
- School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Michael D Crisp
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Joseph T Miller
- Australian National Herbarium, CSIRO, Plant Industry, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Michael A McCarthy
- School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
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25
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Whitehead AL, Kujala H, Ives CD, Gordon A, Lentini PE, Wintle BA, Nicholson E, Raymond CM. Integrating biological and social values when prioritizing places for biodiversity conservation. Conserv Biol 2014; 28:992-1003. [PMID: 24617898 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2013] [Accepted: 10/24/2013] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
The consideration of information on social values in conjunction with biological data is critical for achieving both socially acceptable and scientifically defensible conservation planning outcomes. However, the influence of social values on spatial conservation priorities has received limited attention and is poorly understood. We present an approach that incorporates quantitative data on social values for conservation and social preferences for development into spatial conservation planning. We undertook a public participation GIS survey to spatially represent social values and development preferences and used species distribution models for 7 threatened fauna species to represent biological values. These spatially explicit data were simultaneously included in the conservation planning software Zonation to examine how conservation priorities changed with the inclusion of social data. Integrating spatially explicit information about social values and development preferences with biological data produced prioritizations that differed spatially from the solution based on only biological data. However, the integrated solutions protected a similar proportion of the species' distributions, indicating that Zonation effectively combined the biological and social data to produce socially feasible conservation solutions of approximately equivalent biological value. We were able to identify areas of the landscape where synergies and conflicts between different value sets are likely to occur. Identification of these synergies and conflicts will allow decision makers to target communication strategies to specific areas and ensure effective community engagement and positive conservation outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amy L Whitehead
- Quantitative and Applied Ecology Group, School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia.
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26
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Abstract
Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heini Kujala
- Metapopulation Research Group, Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Atte Moilanen
- Metapopulation Research Group, Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Miguel B. Araújo
- Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Madrid, Spain
- ‘Rui Nabeiro’ Biodiversity Chair, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, University of Évora, Évora, Portugal
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mar Cabeza
- Metapopulation Research Group, Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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27
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Kujala H, Vepsäläinen V, Zuckerberg B, Brommer JE. Range margin shifts of birds revisited - the role of spatiotemporally varying survey effort. Glob Chang Biol 2013; 19:420-430. [PMID: 23504781 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2012] [Accepted: 09/20/2012] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Global climate warming is predicted to lead to global and regional changes in the distribution of organisms. One influential approach to test this prediction using temporally repeated mapping surveys of organisms was suggested in a seminal paper by Thomas & Lennon (1999, Nature). The Thomas & Lennon approach corrects observed changes in the range margin for changes in the range size, and thus potentially controls for other broad-scale environmental changes between surveys, however the approach does not necessarily account for potential biases in sampling effort. To verify whether the issue of variation in sampling effort affects empirical estimates of shifts in range margin, we reanalyzed all three published studies exploring range margin changes of breeding birds in Great Britain (GB), Finland, and New York State (NY). Accounting for changes in survey effort on range margins lowered the estimated shift for breeding birds in New York, but the shift remained statistically significant. For Great Britain and Finland, for which no direct estimate of survey effort is available, we used species richness (a strong correlate of survey effort in New York) as a proxy and found that in both cases the estimated shift in range margin was significantly reduced and became nonsignificant. To understand how robust the approach is to sampling biases, we use a simulation model to show that the Thomas & Lennon approach is, under certain conditions, sensitive to changes in detection probability (probability to detect true occupancy) which in turn may be affected by changes in surveying effort between surveys. We thus found evidence that temporal changes in the distribution of breeding birds based on repeated mapping surveys may be inflated by changes in survey effort along range boundaries. We discuss possible approaches to deal with this issue in the analysis and design of national or regional surveys.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heini Kujala
- Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
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28
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Affiliation(s)
- Heini Kujala
- Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 65 (Viikinkaari 1), FI‐00014, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mark A. Burgman
- School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | - Atte Moilanen
- Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 65 (Viikinkaari 1), FI‐00014, Helsinki, Finland
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29
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Abstract
Recent literature on systematic conservation planning has focused strongly on economics. It is a necessary component of efficient conservation planning because the question is about effective resource allocation. Nevertheless, there is an increasing tendency toward economic factors overriding biological considerations. Focusing too narrowly on economic cost may lead us back toward solutions resembling those obtained by opportunistic choice of areas, the avoidance of which was the motivation for development of systematic approaches. Moreover, there are many overlooked difficulties in incorporating economic considerations reliably into conservation planning because available economic data and the free market are complex. For instance, economies based on free markets tend to be shortsighted, whereas biodiversity conservation aims far into the future. Although economic data are necessary, they should not be relied on too heavily or considered separately from other sociopolitical factors. We suggest focusing on development of more-comprehensive ecological-economic modeling, while not forgetting the importance of purely biological analyses that are needed as a point of reference for evaluating conservation outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anni Arponen
- Metapopulation Research Group, Department of Biosciences, P.O. Box 65 (Viikinkaari 1), FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland.
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30
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Mikusiński G, Pressey RL, Edenius L, Kujala H, Moilanen A, Niemelä J, Ranius T. Conservation planning in forest landscapes of Fennoscandia and an approach to the challenge of countdown 2010. Conserv Biol 2007; 21:1445-1454. [PMID: 18173468 DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00833.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Effective management of biodiversity in production landscapes requires a conservation approach that acknowledges the complexity of ecological and cultural systems in time and space. Fennoscandia has experienced major loss of forest biodiversity caused by intensive forestry. Therefore, the Countdown 2010 initiative to halt the loss of biodiversity in Europe is highly relevant to forest management in this part of the continent. As a contribution to meeting the challenge posed by Countdown 2010, we developed a spatially explicit conservation-planning exercise that used regional knowledge on forest biodiversity to provide support for managers attempting to halt further loss of biological diversity in the region. We used current data on the distribution of 169 species (including 68 red-listed species) representing different forest habitats and ecologies along with forest data within the frame of modern conservation software to devise a map of priority areas for conservation. The top 10% of priority areas contained over 75% of red-listed species locations and 41% of existing protected forest areas, but only 58% of these top priorities overlapped with core areas identified previously in a regional strategy that used more qualitative methods. We argue for aggregating present and future habitat value of single management units to landscape and regional scales to identify potential bottlenecks in habitat availability linked to landscape dynamics. To address the challenge of Countdown 2010, a general framework for forest conservation planning in Fennoscandia needs to cover different conservation issues, tools, and data needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- G Mikusiński
- Grimsö Wildlife Research Station, Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-73091 Riddarhyttan, Sweden.
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