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Hällfors MH, Heikkinen RK, Kuussaari M, Lehikoinen A, Luoto M, Pöyry J, Virkkala R, Saastamoinen M, Kujala H. Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche. Evol Lett 2024; 8:89-100. [PMID: 38370541 PMCID: PMC10872046 DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrad004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Revised: 01/26/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria H Hällfors
- Research Centre for Environmental Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Risto K Heikkinen
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Miska Luoto
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Raimo Virkkala
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Marjo Saastamoinen
- Research Centre for Environmental Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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Junttila V, Minunno F, Peltoniemi M, Forsius M, Akujärvi A, Ojanen P, Mäkelä A. Quantification of forest carbon flux and stock uncertainties under climate change and their use in regionally explicit decision making: Case study in Finland. Ambio 2023; 52:1716-1733. [PMID: 37572230 PMCID: PMC10562356 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01906-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Revised: 04/23/2023] [Accepted: 07/05/2023] [Indexed: 08/14/2023]
Abstract
Uncertainties are essential, yet often neglected, information for evaluating the reliability in forest carbon balance projections used in national and regional policy planning. We analysed uncertainties in the forest net biome exchange (NBE) and carbon stocks under multiple management and climate scenarios with a process-based ecosystem model. Sampled forest initial state values, model parameters, harvest levels and global climate models (GCMs) served as inputs in Monte Carlo simulations, which covered forests of the 18 regions of mainland Finland over the period 2015-2050. Under individual scenarios, the results revealed time- and region-dependent variability in the magnitude of uncertainty and mean values of the NBE projections. The main sources of uncertainty varied with time, by region and by the amount of harvested wood. Combinations of uncertainties in the representative concentration pathways scenarios, GCMs, forest initial values and model parameters were the main sources of uncertainty at the beginning, while the harvest scenarios dominated by the end of the simulation period, combined with GCMs and climate scenarios especially in the north. Our regionally explicit uncertainty analysis was found a useful approach to reveal the variability in the regional potentials to reach a policy related, future target level of NBE, which is important information when planning realistic and regionally fair national policy actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Virpi Junttila
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Francesco Minunno
- Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O.Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mikko Peltoniemi
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Martin Forsius
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anu Akujärvi
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Paavo Ojanen
- Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O.Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Annikki Mäkelä
- Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O.Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
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Oldén A, Komonen A, Tervonen K, Halme P. Grazing and abandonment determine different tree dynamics in wood-pastures. Ambio 2017; 46:227-236. [PMID: 27704403 PMCID: PMC5274622 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-016-0821-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2016] [Revised: 08/25/2016] [Accepted: 09/08/2016] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Wood-pastures are threatened biotopes in which trees and livestock grazing maintain high conservation values. However, browsing may threaten tree regeneration, whereas abandonment leads to tree encroachment. We studied the regeneration of trees in a grazed and abandoned boreal wood-pastures. In grazed sites, the density of young spruces (Picea abies) was high, while the density of young birches (Betula spp.) was very low. Sprucification can be prevented only by removing spruces. The number of young birches and pines (Pinus sylvestris) was correlated with the number of junipers (Juniperus communis), probably because thorny junipers protect palatable seedlings from browsing. In abandoned sites, deciduous trees and spruces regenerated abundantly. In the long term, both grazing and abandonment lead to changes in tree species compositions and low diversity wood-pastures. Landscape scale planning and disturbance dynamics are needed for the creation of new wood-pastures and the maintenance of all pasture types within the landscape.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Oldén
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyvaskyla, P.O. Box 35, 40014 Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Atte Komonen
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyvaskyla, P.O. Box 35, 40014 Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Kaisa Tervonen
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyvaskyla, P.O. Box 35, 40014 Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Panu Halme
- University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla University Museum, P.O. Box 35, 40014 Jyväskylä, Finland
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