1
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Nguyen HTM, Chu L, Liebhold AM, Epanchin-Niell R, Kean JM, Kompas T, Robinson AP, Brockerhoff EG, Moore JL. Optimal allocation of resources among general and species-specific tools for plant pest biosecurity surveillance. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2024; 34:e2955. [PMID: 38379349 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2023] [Revised: 09/21/2023] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 02/22/2024]
Abstract
This paper proposes a surveillance model for plant pests that can optimally allocate resources among survey tools with varying properties. While some survey tools are highly specific for the detection of a single pest species, others are more generalized. There is considerable variation in the cost and sensitivity of these tools, but there are no guidelines or frameworks for identifying which tools are most cost-effective when used in surveillance programs that target the detection of newly invaded populations. To address this gap, we applied our model to design a trapping surveillance program in New Zealand for bark- and wood-boring insects, some of the most serious forest pests worldwide. Our findings show that exclusively utilizing generalized traps (GTs) proves to be highly cost-effective across a wide range of scenarios, particularly when they are capable of capturing all pest species. Implementing surveillance programs that only employ specialized traps (ST) is cost-effective only when these traps can detect highly damaging pests. However, even in such cases, they significantly lag in cost-effectiveness compared to GT-only programs due to their restricted coverage. When both GTs and STs are used in an integrated surveillance program, the total expected cost (TEC) generally diminishes when compared to programs relying on a single type of trap. However, this relative reduction in TEC is only marginally larger than that achieved with GT-only programs, as long as highly damaging species can be detected by GTs. The proportion of STs among the optimal required traps fluctuates based on several factors, including the relative pricing of GTs and STs, pest arrival rates, potential damage, and, more prominently, the coverage capacity of GTs. Our analysis suggests that deploying GTs extensively across landscapes appears to be more cost-effective in areas with either very high or very low levels of relative risk density, potential damage, and arrival rate. Finally, STs are less likely to be required when the pests that are detected by those tools have a higher likelihood of successful eradication because delaying detection becomes less costly for these species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hoa-Thi-Minh Nguyen
- Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Long Chu
- Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Andrew M Liebhold
- USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA
- Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Rebecca Epanchin-Niell
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - John M Kean
- AgResearch Limited, Ruakura Science Centre, Hamilton, New Zealand
| | - Tom Kompas
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, School of Biosciences and School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Andrew P Robinson
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, Schools of Biosciences and Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Eckehard G Brockerhoff
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Joslin L Moore
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
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2
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Newman KD, Nelson JL, Durkin LK, Cripps JK, McCarthy MA. An analytical solution for optimising detections when accounting for site establishment costs. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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3
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Alagador D, Cerdeira JO. Operations research applicability in spatial conservation planning. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 315:115172. [PMID: 35525048 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2022] [Revised: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 04/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
A large fraction of the current environmental crisis derives from the large rates of human-driven biodiversity loss. Biodiversity conservation questions human practices towards biodiversity and, therefore, largely conflicts with ordinary societal aspirations. Decisions on the location of protected areas, one of the most convincing conservation tools, reflect such a competitive endeavor. Operations Research (OR) brings a set of analytical models and tools capable of resolving the conflicting interests between ecology and economy. Recent technological advances have boosted the size and variety of data available to planners, thus challenging conventional approaches bounded on optimized solutions. New models and methods are needed to use such a massive amount of data in integrative schemes addressing a large variety of concerns. This study provides an overview on the past, present and future challenges that characterize spatial conservation models supported by OR. We discuss the progress of OR models and methods in spatial conservation planning and how those models may be optimized through sophisticated algorithms and computational tools. Moreover, we anticipate possible panoramas of modern spatial conservation studies supported by OR and we explore possible avenues for the design of optimized interdisciplinary collaborative platforms in the era of Big Data, through consortia where distinct players with different motivations and services meet. By enlarging the spatial, temporal, taxonomic and societal horizons of biodiversity conservation, planners navigate around multiple socioecological/environmental equilibria and are able to decide on cost-effective strategies to improve biodiversity persistence under complex environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diogo Alagador
- Biodiversity Chair, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Rua Joaquim Henrique da Fonseca, Casa Cordovil, 2°, 7000-890, Évora, Portugal; MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Universidade de Évora, Évora, Portugal.
| | - Jorge Orestes Cerdeira
- Department of Mathematics, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Quinta da Torre, 282 -516, Costa da Caparica, Portugal; Centre for Mathematics and Applications, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Quinta da Torre, 282 -516, Costa da Caparica, Portugal.
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4
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Contina A, Magozzi S, Vander Zanden HB, Bowen GJ, Wunder MB. Optimizing stable isotope sampling design in terrestrial movement ecology research. Methods Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13840] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- A. Contina
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Colorado Denver 1151 Arapahoe St Denver CO USA
| | - S. Magozzi
- Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Fano Marine Centre Fano (PU) Italy
| | - H. B. Vander Zanden
- Department of Biology University of Florida PO Box 118525 Gainesville FL USA
| | - G. J. Bowen
- Department of Geology and Geophysics University of Utah 115 S 1460 E Salt Lake City UT USA
| | - MB Wunder
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Colorado Denver 1151 Arapahoe St Denver CO USA
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5
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Lázaro E, Sesé M, López-Quílez A, Conesa D, Dalmau V, Ferrer A, Vicent A. Tracking the outbreak: an optimized sequential adaptive strategy for Xylella fastidiosa delimiting surveys. Biol Invasions 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-021-02572-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
AbstractThe EU plant health legislation enforces the implementation of intensive surveillance programs for quarantine pests. After an outbreak, surveys are implemented to delimit the extent of the infested zone and to manage disease control. Surveillance in agricultural and natural environments can be enhanced by increasing the survey efforts. Budget constraints often limit inspection and sampling intensities, thus making it necessary to adapt and optimize surveillance strategies. A sequential adaptive delimiting survey involving a three-phase and a two-phase design with increasing spatial resolution was developed and implemented for the Xylella fastidiosa demarcated area in Alicante, Spain. Inspection and sampling intensities were optimized using simulation-based methods. Sampling intensity thresholds were evaluated by quantifying their effect on the estimation of X. fastidiosa incidence. This strategy made it possible to sequence inspection and sampling taking into account increasing spatial resolutions, and to adapt the inspection and sampling intensities according to the information obtained in the previous, coarser, spatial resolution. The proposed strategy was able to efficiently delimit the extent of Xylella fastidiosa, while improving on the efficiency and maintaining the efficacy of the official survey campaign. From a methodological perspective, our approach provides new insights into alternative delimiting designs and new reference sampling intensity values.
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6
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Epanchin‐Niell R, Thompson AL, Treakle T. Public contributions to early detection of new invasive pests. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.422] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Epanchin‐Niell
- Resources for the Future Washington District of Columbia USA
- University of Maryland College Park Maryland USA
| | | | - Tyler Treakle
- Resources for the Future Washington District of Columbia USA
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7
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Optimal invasive species surveillance in the real world: practical advances from research. Emerg Top Life Sci 2020; 4:513-520. [PMID: 33241845 PMCID: PMC7803343 DOI: 10.1042/etls20200305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2020] [Revised: 10/29/2020] [Accepted: 11/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
When alien species make incursions into novel environments, early detection through surveillance is critical to minimizing their impacts and preserving the possibility of timely eradication. However, incipient populations can be difficult to detect, and usually, there are limited resources for surveillance or other response activities. Modern optimization techniques enable surveillance planning that accounts for the biology and expected behavior of an invasive species while exploring multiple scenarios to identify the most cost-effective options. Nevertheless, most optimization models omit some real-world limitations faced by practitioners during multi-day surveillance campaigns, such as daily working time constraints, the time and cost to access survey sites and personnel work schedules. Consequently, surveillance managers must rely on their own judgments to handle these logistical details, and default to their experience during implementation. This is sensible, but their decisions may fail to address all relevant factors and may not be cost-effective. A better planning strategy is to determine optimal routing to survey sites while accounting for common daily logistical constraints. Adding site access and other logistical constraints imposes restrictions on the scope and extent of the surveillance effort, yielding costlier but more realistic expectations of the surveillance outcomes than in a theoretical planning case.
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8
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Aglieri G, Baillie C, Mariani S, Cattano C, Calò A, Turco G, Spatafora D, Di Franco A, Di Lorenzo M, Guidetti P, Milazzo M. Environmental DNA effectively captures functional diversity of coastal fish communities. Mol Ecol 2020; 30:3127-3139. [PMID: 33078500 DOI: 10.1111/mec.15661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2020] [Revised: 08/25/2020] [Accepted: 09/02/2020] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
Robust assessments of taxonomic and functional diversity are essential components of research programmes aimed at understanding current biodiversity patterns and forecasting trajectories of ecological changes. Yet, evaluating marine biodiversity along its dimensions is challenging and dependent on the power and accuracy of the available data collection methods. Here we combine three traditional survey methodologies (underwater visual census strip transects [UVCt], baited underwater videos [BUV] and small-scale fishery catches [SSFc]), and one novel molecular technique (environmental DNA metabarcoding [eDNA]-12S rRNA and cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 [COI]) to investigate their efficiency and complementarity in assessing fish diversity. We analysed 1,716 multimethod replicates at a basin scale to measure the taxonomic and functional diversity of Mediterranean fish assemblages. Taxonomic identities were investigated at species, genus and family levels. Functional identities were assessed using combinations of morphological, behavioural and trophic traits. We show that: (a) SSFc provided the higher taxonomic diversity estimates followed by eDNA, and then UVCt and BUV; (b) eDNA was the only method able to gather the whole spectrum of considered functional traits, showing the most functionally diversified and least redundant fish assemblages; and (c) the effectiveness of eDNA in describing functional structure reflected its lack of selectivity towards any considered functional trait. Our findings suggest that the reach of eDNA analysis stretches beyond taxon detection efficiency and provides new insights into the potential of metabarcoding in ecological studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giorgio Aglieri
- Department of Earth and Marine Sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.,Consorzio Nazionale Interuniversitario per le Scienze del Mare (CoNISMa), Rome, Italy
| | - Charles Baillie
- School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Salford, UK
| | - Stefano Mariani
- School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK
| | - Carlo Cattano
- Department of Earth and Marine Sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.,Consorzio Nazionale Interuniversitario per le Scienze del Mare (CoNISMa), Rome, Italy.,Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Sicily, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Lungomare Cristoforo Colombo (complesso Roosevelt), Palermo, Italy
| | - Antonio Calò
- Department of Earth and Marine Sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.,UMR 7035 ECOSEAS, CNRS, Université Côte d'Azur, Nice, France
| | - Gabriele Turco
- Department of Earth and Marine Sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.,Consorzio Nazionale Interuniversitario per le Scienze del Mare (CoNISMa), Rome, Italy
| | - Davide Spatafora
- Department of Earth and Marine Sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.,Consorzio Nazionale Interuniversitario per le Scienze del Mare (CoNISMa), Rome, Italy
| | - Antonio Di Franco
- Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Sicily, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Lungomare Cristoforo Colombo (complesso Roosevelt), Palermo, Italy.,UMR 7035 ECOSEAS, CNRS, Université Côte d'Azur, Nice, France
| | - Manfredi Di Lorenzo
- Institute for Biological Resources and Marine Biotechnologies, National Research Council (IRBIM-CNR), Mazara del Vallo, Italy
| | - Paolo Guidetti
- Consorzio Nazionale Interuniversitario per le Scienze del Mare (CoNISMa), Rome, Italy.,UMR 7035 ECOSEAS, CNRS, Université Côte d'Azur, Nice, France.,Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Naples, Italy
| | - Marco Milazzo
- Department of Earth and Marine Sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.,Consorzio Nazionale Interuniversitario per le Scienze del Mare (CoNISMa), Rome, Italy
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9
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Baker CM, Bode M. Recent advances of quantitative modeling to support invasive species eradication on islands. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.246] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Christopher M. Baker
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
- Melbourne Centre for Data Science, The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | - Michael Bode
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology Brisbane Queensland Australia
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10
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Balantic C, Donovan T. Temporally adaptive acoustic sampling to maximize detection across a suite of focal wildlife species. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:10582-10600. [PMID: 31632648 PMCID: PMC6787958 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5579] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2019] [Revised: 07/23/2019] [Accepted: 07/29/2019] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Acoustic recordings of the environment can produce species presence-absence data for characterizing populations of sound-producing wildlife over multiple spatial scales. If a species is present at a site but does not vocalize during a scheduled audio recording survey, researchers may incorrectly conclude that the species is absent ("false negative"). The risk of false negatives is compounded when audio devices have sampling constraints, do not record continuously, and must be manually scheduled to operate at pre-selected times of day, particularly when research programs target multiple species with acoustic availability that varies across temporal conditions.We developed a temporally adaptive acoustic sampling algorithm to maximize detection probabilities for a suite of focal species amid sampling constraints. The algorithm combines user-supplied species vocalization models with site-specific weather forecasts to set an optimized sampling schedule for the following day. To test our algorithm, we simulated hourly vocalization probabilities for a suite of focal species in a hypothetical monitoring area for the year 2016. We conducted a factorial experiment that sampled from the 2016 acoustic environment to compare the probability of acoustic detection by a fixed (stationary) schedule versus a temporally adaptive optimized schedule under several sampling efforts and monitoring durations.We found that over the course of a study season, the probability of acoustically capturing a focal species (given presence) at least once via automated acoustic monitoring was greater (and acoustic capture occurred earlier in the season) when using the temporally adaptive optimized schedule as compared to a fixed schedule.The advantages of a temporally adaptive optimized acoustic sampling schedule are magnified when a study duration is short, sampling effort is low, and/or species acoustic availability is minimal. This methodology presents the opportunity to maximize acoustic monitoring sampling efforts amid constraints.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cathleen Balantic
- Vermont Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research UnitRubenstein School of Environment and Natural ResourcesUniversity of VermontBurlingtonVTUSA
| | - Therese Donovan
- U.S. Geological SurveyVermont Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research UnitRubenstein School of Environment and Natural ResourcesUniversity of VermontBurlingtonVTUSA
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11
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Yemshanov D, Haight RG, Chen C, Liu N, MacQuarrie CJK, Koch FH, Venette R, Ryall K. Managing biological invasions in urban environments with the acceptance sampling approach. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0220687. [PMID: 31442239 PMCID: PMC6707552 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220687] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2019] [Accepted: 07/22/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Detections of invasive species outbreaks are often followed by the removal of susceptible host organisms in order to slow the spread of the invading pest population. We propose the acceptance sampling approach for detection and optional removal of susceptible host trees to manage an outbreak of the emerald ash borer (EAB), a highly destructive forest pest, in Winnipeg, Canada. We compare the strategy with two common delimiting survey techniques that do not consider follow-up management actions such as host removal. Our results show that the management objective influences the survey strategy. The survey-only strategies maximized the capacity to detect new infestations and prioritized sites with high likelihood of being invaded. Comparatively, the surveys with subsequent host removal actions allocated most of the budget to sites where complete host removal would minimize the pest's ability to spread to uninvaded locations. Uncertainty about the pest's spread causes the host removal measures to cover a larger area in a uniform spatial pattern and extend to farther distances from already infested sites. If a decision maker is ambiguity-averse and strives to avoid the worst-case damages from the invasion, the optimal strategy is to survey more sites with high host densities and remove trees from sites at farther distances, where EAB arrivals may be uncertain, but could cause significant damage if not detected quickly. Accounting for the uncertainty about spread helps develop a more robust pest management strategy. The approach is generalizable and can support management programs for new pest incursions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Denys Yemshanov
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre,Sault Ste. Marie, ON, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Robert G. Haight
- USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, St. Paul, MN, United States of America
| | - Cuicui Chen
- University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States of America
| | - Ning Liu
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre,Sault Ste. Marie, ON, Canada
| | - Christian J. K. MacQuarrie
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre,Sault Ste. Marie, ON, Canada
| | - Frank H. Koch
- USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States of America
| | - Robert Venette
- USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, St. Paul, MN, United States of America
| | - Krista Ryall
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre,Sault Ste. Marie, ON, Canada
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12
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König C, Weigelt P, Schrader J, Taylor A, Kattge J, Kreft H. Biodiversity data integration-the significance of data resolution and domain. PLoS Biol 2019; 17:e3000183. [PMID: 30883539 PMCID: PMC6445469 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2018] [Revised: 04/02/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent years have seen an explosion in the availability of biodiversity data describing the distribution, function, and evolutionary history of life on earth. Integrating these heterogeneous data remains a challenge due to large variations in observational scales, collection purposes, and terminologies. Here, we conceptualize widely used biodiversity data types according to their domain (what aspect of biodiversity is described?) and informational resolution (how specific is the description?). Applying this framework to major data providers in biodiversity research reveals a strong focus on the disaggregated end of the data spectrum, whereas aggregated data types remain largely underutilized. We discuss the implications of this imbalance for the scope and representativeness of current macroecological research and highlight the synergies arising from a tighter integration of biodiversity data across domains and resolutions. We lay out effective strategies for data collection, mobilization, imputation, and sharing and summarize existing frameworks for scalable and integrative biodiversity research. Finally, we use two case studies to demonstrate how the explicit consideration of data domain and resolution helps to identify biases and gaps in global data sets and achieve unprecedented taxonomic and geographical data coverage in macroecological analyses. This Essay highlights data resolution as central property of biodiversity data that affects the precision and representativeness of macroecological inferences. It also discusses ways to maximize synergies among data types and showcases the potential of cross-resolution, cross-domain data integration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian König
- Biodiversity, Macroecology & Biogeography, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
- * E-mail:
| | - Patrick Weigelt
- Biodiversity, Macroecology & Biogeography, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
| | - Julian Schrader
- Biodiversity, Macroecology & Biogeography, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
| | - Amanda Taylor
- Biodiversity, Macroecology & Biogeography, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
| | - Jens Kattge
- Research Group Functional Biogeography, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Holger Kreft
- Biodiversity, Macroecology & Biogeography, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
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13
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Thomas FM, Vesk PA, Hauser CE. A field ecologist's adventures in the virtual world: using simulations to design data collection for complex models. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2018; 28:2130-2141. [PMID: 30276923 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1801] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2018] [Revised: 07/01/2018] [Accepted: 08/20/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Field data collection can be expensive, time consuming, and difficult; insightful research requires statistical analyses supported by sufficient data. Pilot studies and power analysis provide guidance on sampling design but can be challenging to perform, as ecologists increasingly collect multiple types of data over different scales. Despite a growing simulation literature, it remains unclear how to appropriately design data collection for many complex projects. Approaches that seek to achieve realism in decision-making contexts, such as management strategy evaluation and virtual ecologist simulations, can help. For a relatively complex analysis, we develop and demonstrate a flexible simulation approach that informs what data are needed and how long those data will take to collect, under realistic fieldwork constraints. We simulated data collection and analysis under different constraint scenarios that varied in deterministic (field trip length, travel, and measurement times) and stochastic (species detection and occupancy rates and inclement weather) features. In our case study, we fit plant height data to a multispecies, three-parameter, nonlinear growth model. We tested how the simulated data sets, based on the varying constraint scenarios, affected the model fit (parameter bias, uncertainty, and capture rate). Species prevalence in the field exerted a stronger influence on the data sets and downstream model performance than deterministic aspects such as travel times. When species detection and occupancy were not considered, the field time needed to collect an adequate data set was underestimated by 40%. Simulations can assist in refining fieldwork design, estimating field costs, and incorporating uncertainties into project planning. We argue that combining data collection, analysis, and decision-making processes in a flexible virtual setting can help address many of the decisions that field ecologists face when designing field-based research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Freya M Thomas
- School of BioSciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia
| | - Peter A Vesk
- School of BioSciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia
| | - Cindy E Hauser
- School of BioSciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia
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14
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Glen AS, Veltman CJ. Search strategies for conservation detection dogs. WILDLIFE BIOLOGY 2018. [DOI: 10.2981/wlb.00393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Alistair S. Glen
- A. S. Glen , Manaaki Whenna— Landcare Research, Private Bag 92170, Auc
| | - Clare J. Veltman
- C. J. Veltman, Dept of Conservation, c/o Manaaki Whenua — Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Z
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15
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Yemshanov D, Haight RG, Koch FH, Venette R, Studens K, Fournier RE, Swystun T, Turgeon JJ. A safety rule approach to surveillance and eradication of biological invasions. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0181482. [PMID: 28759584 PMCID: PMC5536277 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0181482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2017] [Accepted: 06/30/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Uncertainty about future spread of invasive organisms hinders planning of effective response measures. We present a two-stage scenario optimization model that accounts for uncertainty about the spread of an invader, and determines survey and eradication strategies that minimize the expected program cost subject to a safety rule for eradication success. The safety rule includes a risk standard for the desired probability of eradication in each invasion scenario. Because the risk standard may not be attainable in every scenario, the safety rule defines a minimum proportion of scenarios with successful eradication. We apply the model to the problem of allocating resources to survey and eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (ALB, Anoplophora glabripennis) after its discovery in the Greater Toronto Area, Ontario, Canada. We use historical data on ALB spread to generate a set of plausible invasion scenarios that characterizes the uncertainty of the beetle's extent. We use these scenarios in the model to find survey and tree removal strategies that minimize the expected program cost while satisfying the safety rule. We also identify strategies that reduce the risk of very high program costs. Our results reveal two alternative strategies: (i) delimiting surveys and subsequent tree removal based on the surveys' outcomes, or (ii) preventive host tree removal without referring to delimiting surveys. The second strategy is more likely to meet the stated objectives when the capacity to detect an invader is low or the aspirations to eradicate it are high. Our results provide practical guidelines to identify the best management strategy given aspirational targets for eradication and spending.
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Affiliation(s)
- Denys Yemshanov
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Robert G. Haight
- United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Frank H. Koch
- United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Robert Venette
- United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Kala Studens
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada
| | - Ronald E. Fournier
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada
| | - Tom Swystun
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jean J. Turgeon
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada
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